It’s always been a long shot that Justin Verlander would be able to return in 2021, but Astros general manager James Click confirmed to Sean Salisbury of SportsTalk 790 AM in Houston this morning that Verlander won’t pitch for the team down the stretch (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).
Click tells Salisbury that Verlander recently inquired with his doctors about the possibility and was “strongly advised” against attempting a comeback in 2021, as such a quick turnaround would carry “tremendous risk for the efficacy of the surgery.” Verlander had previously spoken with a hint of optimism about returning as a reliever in the season’s final weeks.
Verlander tweeted back in May that he planned to continue pitching “for a long time” and hasn’t considered retirement, but it’s not yet clear where he’ll continue his career. The 38-year-old (39 in February) is set to hit the open market at season’s end, though the ’Stros will first need to determine whether they want to make a qualifying offer to Verlander.
A one-year offer in the $19MM range would normally be deemed steep for any pitcher coming off a season spent rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but Verlander is, of course, no ordinary pitcher. He’s only pitched six innings since Opening Day 2020, but Verlander is a two-time Cy Young winner, a three-time Cy Young runner-up, an eight-time All-Star and a former American League MVP. His last full season, pitched at 36 years of age in 2019, saw him rack up 223 innings of 2.52 ERA ball en route to the second of those two Cy Young wins.
A straightforward path for Verlander may be to simply accept a payday in the $19MM range — if offered — and remain in a setting where he’s clearly comfortable. That sum checks in well north of the recent bounceback salaries we’ve seen for similarly high-profile names like Corey Kluber ($11MM), so there’d be good reason for him to consider it. On the other hand, it’s a pretty sizable cut from Verlander’s prior $33MM salary, and the veteran may simply want to test the free-agent market for the first time in his career. Verlander has played out his entire career on a series of extensions with the Tigers and Astros, so he’s never explored the open market.
The question for the Astros, meanwhile, is whether they’d want to invest $19MM (or thereabouts) into a soon-to-be 39-year-old pitcher who has made just one start since winning that Cy Young Award in 2019. There aren’t many more appealing players on whom to take a one-year flier than Verlander, but the Houston payroll is already rather large.
[Related: 2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates]
The Astros have just under $97MM on the books in 2022, and that’s before arbitration raises to Framber Valdez (first time eligible), Josh James (first time), Phil Maton (second time), Ryne Stanek (second time), Rafael Montero (third time) and Aledmys Diaz (third time). That $97MM number also doesn’t include club options for Yuli Gurriel ($8MM) or Ryan Pressly ($10MM) — both of which seem sure to be picked up, barring a late injury. None of those arb-eligible players will break the bank in terms of 2022 salary — some could obviously be non-tendered, too — but those smaller salaries will begin to add up.
Furthermore, the Astros will have some big names to replace. Carlos Correa is a free agent and could land elsewhere after rejecting the team’s extension overtures in Spring Training. Consummate innings eater Zack Greinke is set to hit the market as well, and the Astros also stand to lose relievers Kendall Graveman, Yimi Garcia and Brooks Raley to free agency. If Verlander were to accept a qualifying offer, the Houston payroll could jump north of $140MM before the team even looks at replacing Correa or any of the departing relievers. Their 2021 payroll currently sits at about $189MM.
The in-house rotation depth the Astros already possess is also a factor in determining whether to extend a qualifying offer to Verlander. Even with a pair of likely Hall of Famers potentially departing (Greinke, Verlander), the Astros can still boast a staff of Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia,Valdez, Jake Odorizzi, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. That’s before even considering upper-level arms like Hunter Brown and Peter Solomon. There’s an argument to be made that dedicating a sizable portion of available offseason resources to a rebound candidate in the rotation — even one with as much upside as Verlander — shouldn’t be the team’s priority.
We know the Astros are going to make a qualifying offer to Correa, and as one of the top free agents on the market, he’ll reject that QO without a second thought. Verlander is a closer call, but the Astros will surely be intrigued by the possibility of getting a compensatory pick after their recent penalties in the draft (stemming from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal). Plus, even with the in-house options they do have, a one-year deal for Verlander has plenty of appeal. The Astros could, and probably should, just extend the qualifying offer and be happy with either outcome.
What do MLBTR readers think? (Links to both polls)
I’d extend the QO. Pitching depth is a great thing to have and Verlander on a 1 year deal would be a good gamble to take.
Whether Verlander accepts it or not is entirely up to him on the advice of him medical team. If he wants to ease back into competition, then one year in comfortable surroundings on a team getting a discount for his services is ideal.
I once thought about whether or not Verlander would do well as a closer.
That’s how he should market himself this off-season
He does feel kind of Smoltz-y
Let’s not forget the Trashtros lost some first round picks. Extending him the QO isn’t too risky and if he turns it down they’ll get a much needed early pick
“Trashtros” has become as overplayed as “Bellicheat”. I think what they did sucks, too. But get over it and move on.
i wouldnt. no way he makes $19 at his age in this pitching market.
I mean, depending on their lux tax situation, i could see the angels trying to swing some higher priced low (1-2yr) length contracts on guys like Scherzer and or Verlander.
He’s 38 and will be 39 at the start of next season. While you might say you intended to post his age at the start of the next season, your statement might lead people to believe he would be 40 at the start of the 2022 season.
If Danny Duffy does not go back to Kansas City(which would shock me if Dayton Moore doesn’t try to bring him back), I see the Angels being one of the teams being his destination.
It shouldn’t shock you. A player that is traded at the dead line as a rental very rarely ends up back with the team that traded them the coming off-season.
Hamels got $18M…
and wasnt coming off TJS and was slightly younger
The Braves received a total of three innings from Hamels for that prorated $18 million. Not exactly the most inspiring comp, though I would trust Verlander coming back from TJ more than Atlanta should’ve with Hamels.
I think Verlander could potentially earn a higher overall guarantee on a two-year deal, so it wouldn’t shock me if he declined it. I also think there’s enough teams that would, at a minimum match or get close to the $19 million for him anyways. The last time he was healthy he won the Cy Young. There will be a market for him.
If Verlander wasn’t coming off of TJS, he’d easily get a 2/$50M+ in free agency. He is like Nolan Ryan, a guy who can be very effective into his 40’s. I see Houston tendering the QO, Verlander rejecting it and signing a 1 year, $20M deal with a $25M club option.
I don’t think he’s done being productive, but its just a matter of risking $19 to prove that, and again, not in this market.
Dark side.
I’d be willing to place a large wager on Verlander getting at least 19 million.
It would be silly for the Astros not to extend one, and it’d be silly for Verlander not to accept. Its a pretty low-risk QO given the player.
Lmao. A 39 year old who hasn’t pitched in 2 years at 19M is a low risk gamble?
Pass the hootch
Who else is lining up to give verlander 20M+?
Pretty much all one year deals are low risk gambles.
Not at $19 Million for a guy that might pitch 100 innings to earn it! That’s a pretty hefty price tag and what if he doesn’t come back and be the pitcher he was before which is better than a 50/50 at this point in his return from T/J and given his age.
You can get 3 low risk gambles for 19 million dollars… please dollar amount maters, especially when a guy is near 40 and hasn’t thrown a ball professionally since he was 37
Name me 3 low risk gambles on the market with an MVP and 2 Cy Youngs in there trophy case, one in the last 2 years mind you, that any given team could get for $19 million? I dont think you can.
except tjose credentials still dont make him “low risk,” and that he can be had for $19 doesnt mean you should pay him that money, or that $19 is what you will need to pay to get it done.
Absolutely no one on the free agent market this side of Scherzer has the pedigree that Verlander has. Who has also shown in the past that he can bounce back from major injuries, back into prime form no less. History has proven this. Im pretty sure any team would take a chance on Verlander at anything south of $20 mil.
Dude. He’s 40. You’re not getting 29 year old verlander. Pedigree doesn’t mean crap
Hamels is a borderline hall of famer. Doesn’t mean he’s going to be good next year. Cmon
Verlander at 36 was better than Verlander at 29, so that argument isn’t really valid. The man has shown he can perform better in his late 30’s than his “prime years”. Ill take the bet he will have a good year at 40. Also, Hamels and Verlander are 2 completely different pitchers. Thats comparing apples and oranges, sir. C’mon.
No they’re not apples to oranges! They’re both late in their HOF career, who recently had a major arm surgery but are trying to convince teams they can still perform. Hamels threw 190 innings in 18 and 140 innings in 19. 32+27 starts. Got 18M, and pitched once more
Hamels 2020 and 2021 easily can be Verlander’s 2022 and 2023. JV is 40 coming off a major surgery and hasn’t pitched in two years. That’s equal to Hamel’s down time, and everyone claims Hamels is done.
Whether you love the guy or not, and think he’s superhuman, all of that matters. There’s one Tom Brady across the 4 major sports. Pretending hitting 40 means nothing for a pro athlete is so head-in-the-sand it’s astounding
Verlander pitched over 200 innings in both the seasons you mentioned for Hamels, 18 and 19, won a Cy Young one year, almost did in the other. Both picthers are clearly at different levels performance wise in there careers. Not a great comparison. Apples to oranges. And at no point did I say turning 40 means nothing for an athlete. You just want to blindly argue that he will automatically suck coming back from injury at age 40. All im saying is, given his track record and recent performance, not mention his track record coming back from major injuries, suggests it is very possible he comes back and have a good year. Now, carry on. While we are at it, im really not the biggest Verlander fan. He always messes my team up.
19M aav would have bought the best reliever on the market last year, with change. There’s only 3 free agents that signed for a higher aav last year
I’d take Liam Hendricks+ a bench guy over a 40 year old gamble of Verlander
Keep in mind that The White Sox got a 4th year option for free in the Hendrix deal, so it was really a 4/$57M deal. His AAV for CBT purposes is $14.25M per year.
Hamels a borderline hall of farmer? Dude made only 4 all star appearances and never finished higher than 5th for a Cy Young (only 4 years with a top 10 finish)
That’s not borderline hall of fame. More like hats off to a nice career
So, thats 2 “low risk gambles” you’ve named off instead of 3, only 1 if you want to get technical. “+ a bench guy”. Your argument is already dwindling. I still stand my previous point. So, again, carry on, not-good sir.
I’m pretty sure Hamels wasn’t brought up as a means of showing a formidable Verlander comparable. In fact, the opposite. More like, “hey, if HAMELS is gonna command $18M coming off less shaky ground than Verlander, then V is likely worth extending the QO to.”
As the general sense of the article centered around whether tis nobler to QO, or not QO lol.
That said, with pitching and being as bad as I’ve ever seen in my limited time on this planet, I’d rather send Greinke $100M/3 years than spend on anyone else in the pitching marketplace. Also, is Syndergaard coming to market this offseason?
Seriously? You don’t think I could name 3 guys who signed for 6M aav or less having seasons worth less than 1 win for the entire year? Fangraphs values a 1 war guy at 8M.
It’s a pretty safe bet. Desclafani is an easy 3rd answer. How about Carlos Rodon? Heck both Stroman and Semien cost less than 19M aav. You win nothing. Absolutely nothing
And again, Hamels career war is 59. The HOF threshold tends to be 60. He won a title in a big east coast market. Yeah he gets in
@history, wrong. Hamels was brought up to show the maximum a big name free agent has gotten on a bounce back injury contract in recent years. And he proved to be a dud
Multiple recent guys have gotten less than even 15M and been pretty bad the next year. There’s no reason to think the market will pay Verlander more than a QO
Since 2015, the beginning of Liam Hendricks elite portion of his career, he has thrown 383 innings while sporting a 3.08 ERA. During the same timeframe Verlander has delivered 1010 innings of 2.94 ERA. The peak of Hendricks career vs the aging and still spectacular tail end of Verlander’s.
I’ll take the rare chance for a TRUE ACE FIRST BALLOT HALL OF FAMER for the cost of an elite reliever and the recycle bin.
Corey Kluber will be a free agent and has the pedigree, is 3 years younger, has pitched pretty well this season when healthy and hasn’t had a recent arm surgery. Do you think he’s getting $20 million next year?
None of those names you mentioned have the pedigree of Verlander, which was my initial argument to begin with. Not just simply name 3 players off the market. You’re argument has officially deteriorated.
While we are at it, i can guarantee that 19 million does not net you both Rodon and Desclafani, not even close. They are both easily worth 15 million a piece, so nice try on that one. 19 million will net you one of any of the players you named, none of which comes even close to what Verlander has done in his career. You’ve officially lost.
I said I’d take 3 low risk gambles for the 19M over Verlander
You said I named only 2
I went ahead and named four more. Group any 3 of their 2021 contracts, and it’s less than 19M. It’s not hard. Nothing has collapsed. Maybe stop making dumb assertions?
And again. I couldn’t care less about pedigree for a 39 year old who hasn’t thrown a ball in two years. What portion of the population of players are retired by 39? 99.98%? Maybe more?
“ While we are at it, i can guarantee that 19 million does not net you both Rodon and Desclafani, not even close. They are both easily worth 15 million a piece, so nice try on that one. ”
Was talking their 2021 deals genius. You asserted there’s no way better to spend 19M on low risk gambles. So I took the most recent free agent market and named multiple guys making ~6M for this year. Go, look it up
Literally everybody with an open checkbook. This is Justin Verlander. Kluber was great but didn’t have Verlander’s pedigree.
Greinke is quite a bit more than a “consummate innings eater.”
I thought that was a bit disingenuous as well.
Tyler Anderson is an innings-eater. Zack Greinke is a front-line starting pitcher.
A 39yr old coming back from 2 yrs of not pitching after what we’ve seen this year with pitcher dropping like flies….good luck. I wouldn’t offer him 19m and he’d be a fool to turn it down.
I know, I know — look how it turned out — but Cole Hamels was 36 when ATL was set to pay him 1/18M (he made a prorated portion of that due to pandemic-shortened season). Hamels did miss some time in the year before that offering, but not 2 years, as Verlander has. Not many at 39 could be worth that contract, but that’s a really interesting high risk/high reward deal that could be enticing to a competitive team that didn’t want to have a lot of future money on the books.
Is Hamels’ fail the epitome of why it would be dumb to expect a 39 year old after 2 years off to be his old self?
People here tell me kershaw is done at 32 but verlander is a safe gamble at 39 for 19M? Come on
Maybe because Verlander’s injury and recovering are basically par for the course these days and his recent output prior to essentially resting for 2 years was outstanding. Kershaw has still been very good while healthy, but a few steps below peak form with more concerning and less well-charted injuries
WHAT!? An occasional bulky back- which a large number of men at his Age start to experience, is more severe than an actual arm injury that just took 2 years of a guys career????? When talking about ability to Perform next year. That’s your take?
I’ve never thought of Hamels, good as he has been, as an equal the Verlander.
Hamels has 59 career WAR. Verlander is better yes, but Hamels is a borderline hall of famer. Give the man his due
He’s not scrub. He’s the closest to a parallel in baseball to Verlander there is today, in terms of likelihood he has a great bounce back year at 40 after a major surgery… odds aren’t in his favor
King Felix is a “borderline hall of gamer”. He’s light years ahead of Hamels as far as pedigree and accolades
Hamels had a nice career but he’s nowhere near the conversation for the hall of fame
We get it, you love Cole Hamels. Yes, we get it, he is a borderline HOFer. And I’m being kind in saying that to you, when he’s really right below a borderline HOFer. Comparing him and Verlander is just not an apt argument. Whether they have both been injured the last few years or not, they are both on very different career trajectories, and both have handled/bounced back from injuries very differently. Accept this. Move on. Resume your life.
I have zero love for Cole Hamels. If anything, in his prime he eliminated my favorite team multiple times.
But I can respect a good career and a productive one.
Takes props to put something in quotes and then misquote it
What exactly does takes props mean? I think you messed up your sayings there trying to correct someone else’s grammar. Maybe get yourself in order before you jump on someone else?
The only way Hamels gets into the HOF is if he buys a ticket like everyone else. Ahahahaha
Andy Meyer said “hall of gamer” saying Felix is a borderline HOF’er, while replying to my comment calling Hamels a Hall of Famer. With an F. See the difference? YAYYYY!
Feeling a little inadequate, are ya?
The Astros should absolutely extend the qualifying offer. In no way should he accept it as he is still Justin Verlander for crying out loud. He’ll absolutely top that money elsewhere. Pitchers get PAID in today’s game.
There would be probably at least 5-10 teams with offers. Just off the top of my head I could see the Astros, Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, Braves and possibly Blue Jays.
Angels past performance shows they overpay for a year and he ends up having a 6+ ERA year…
Perry Minasian didn’t do that last off-season so I’ll take a wait and see approach. He’s going to have quite a bit of money to play with.
Lots to like and look forward to as an Angels fan.
Yankees don’t pay $20+ for comeback pitchers. They would offer $10-$12 million like with Kluber. Red Sox as well. Angels would be his only hope an they already have too much payroll. The Mariners haven’t signed a big name since Cano. I think you are stuck in MLB free agency from a decade ago.
Well we can have a difference of opinion but I will say that Justin Verlander is no average pitcher. He has over 13 years of excellent pitching on his résumé. Pitchers come back from Tommy John surgery these days just fine.
I’m not stating that teams are going to give him a long-term deal, but a two-year $40 million contract is certainly not out of the question.
And of course there would be medical information exchanged, so it’s not like teams are walking into a contract offering blindly.
Verlander is on a different level from Kluber.
Which pitcher is on a different level? Here are the 3 seasons before Kluber got hurt and the 3 seasons before Verlander got hurt.
Pitcher A: 633 IP, 2.77 ERA, 161 ERA+, 2.97 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 1 CYA, 2 top 5 CY
Pitcher B: 643 IP, 2.81 ERA, 156 ERA+, 3.29 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 1 CYA, 2 top 5 CY
Kluber missed his age 33-34 seasons because of a line drive that resulted in a fracture and a back injury that did not need surgery. He came back for his age 35 season and received a 1/$11m contract.
Verlander missed his age 37-38 seasons because of an elbow injury that required surgery. Which would you have wanted?
Look at the numbers and get off Verlanders junk
Ummmm Roger Clemens…?
The angels are the only hope for a pitcher to get an excessive Aav? The team that hasn’t paid a pitcher more than 12M since 2016?
Hahahahaha
Says the guy who’s favorite team paid how much to Trevor Bauer… okay, McCourt.
Ah yes, Matt I can’t pick a city. Was waiting for this one
One was a 1 or 2 year deal for a guy in his prime as the best or 2nd best free agent pitcher on the market. At 30. The other is 39 and missed the last 2 years. Ahh similarities
If you think a team expected Bauer to assault a woman but still signed him, you’re a cynical human being. Most employers don’t expect their employees to assault another
There’s no way any intelligent front office plans to beat a QO AAV
yeah. personally I think he takes the QO. I know he wants to maximize his earnings, but i, truthfully, don’t think there’s any chance he gets $19 over mutiple years at this point, or even close, and perhaps only slightly over that total.
@Dark, i fully agree he could get more than 19 if he goes for more than 1 year. But I cannot see him getting 19 per year
Ie: 2/32 maybe max?
Ask the Yankees what they think of their Kluber situation…..that’s what you get with old pitchers coming back from T/J ……nothing but question marks…..what you need to understand is not that Verlander should make good coin in a 1 year deal, but $19 Million would be ludicrous for this much of a question mark.
No way DePoto goes after Verlander for that much.
Re upping Anderson is more like it.
Marco
Flexen
Kukuchi(maybe) I say M’s move on without him
Sheffield
Dunn
Gilbert
Swanson
*Kirby
*Hancock
Verlander would be blocking some of those.
Exactly, if Dip is gonna make a move for anyone to bounce back after TJS it would be the Big Maple on a hometown (close enough) discount.
except several of those dont need to be up next year or are replacable or perhaps worth trading.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Atlanta take a chance on him for 2022 with an option for 2023
Why would they extend him an offer? He is a rebound candidate for other teams too. You honestly think another team is going to give a pitcher returning from TJ more than $19 million a year? If they offer he accepts because if he doesn’t he is gonna sit in free agency before resigning with Houston for $10 million. No team will give him multiple years and no team is gonna pay the compensation for a 39 yo TJ comeback.
Verlander has had a great career, but 2 years on the sidelines, at age 39, is not a good risk. That he will not be pitching this year shows he is taking longer than normal to recover. Kluber set the bar for this type of late career comeback. Any more should be incentives based on innings pitched. Houston is deep enough in starting that $19MM could be better used elsewhere.
He ain’t a twin to Roger Clemens – at 39 and out almost two full years you’d have to be desperate to throw $19M at him…
It is empirically likely that Clemens was juicing at 39.
It was more than likely, it’s basically a guarantee he was juicing
He wants to go back to Detroit—go for it.
After a showcase/audition 3/52 for Tigers. $12m for first year, then $20+ $20. He can mentor young pitchers ala Kenny Rogers. Then hopefully pitch good all 3 years.
$20 Million as a “mentor”……from the Tigers when they have what certainly is one of the worst contracts on their books right now anyway….what do you think of Cabrera’s mentoring skills?
I think Verlander still views himself as a $30+ million dollar a year pitcher, despite the injury and layoff. If he holds a showcase and is still throwing heat, there’s no way he’s signing for 3yr52m.
It’s nice to want things. Doesn’t mean he’s gonna get it
only Nerlens Noel’s agent turns down that contract.
Justin Verlander is the closest thing this era of MLB has to Nolan Ryan. He’s right up there with Roger Clemens without the PEDs issues. I think JV can pitch for 4-5 more years and still pump fastballs by MLB hitters. I bet he can get to 4000 Ks. If I were the Tigers I’d give him a 2 year deal with a couple club options. Keep JV in Detroit until he wants to retire.
Verlander is a throw back. He likes it. In Detroit with the team they’re building around him I bet he wants a WS ring in Motown as much as the fans do. I hope the Tigers do it.
The Tigers are a long way from getting a ring.
I disagree. The Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball since May 8. Not sure if you’ve been paying close attention to the way they are playing or if you go by the standings. But, they are pretty much a stud shortstop away.
39 year old *any pitcher* is what’s gonna put a team over the top who’s been picking top 5 in the draft for most of the last decade?
The takes here today are amazing
I’m still confused on how this guy made it back to be so dominant, at his age, with the Asstros. Seemed to be fading in 2014/15 then the man again. Makes me wonder if he can pitch the same without the sticky to help. Seen Greinke threw like 6 shutout ings the other night, with 0 strikeouts.
He was recovering from significant injury in 2014/15. Once healthy again, he started dominating again. That’s what spurned the discussions between Houston and Detroit in the first place.
Playing on a competitive team again makes a difference. Trashtros got much more out of Cole when he showed up there too
Tigers are closer than you think. Sign Verlander, Correa. Bring up Torkelson and Greene next season and keep Schoop, Grossman, Baddoo, Haase, Candelario, Miggy and they’re a contender.
You don’t need to worry about Schoop, because barring a trade, he will be in Detroit until at least 2024, as he will be an Unrestricted Free Agent after the 2023 season, but they could still keep him past then if they wanted to, although there will definitely be some other teams interested in his services.
The Detroit Tigers will compete for a wild card in ’22. They will make the playoffs in ’23….and again in ’24. You gotta be in the hunt come October. I like Justin Verlander anytime in a playoff game…especially against the Yankees or A’s. A ring is certainly possible in 2-3 years.
Verlander wants a ring in Detroit. He wants 4000 Ks.
He will be a closer and teach the young ones more
What Jwitt said. Playoffs starting 2022 if they do.
Verlander is coming home to Detroit and will be their closer
Dombrowski on line 1…….
He will get a Qualifying Offer but still leave,
Houston got him a WS ring, a no hitter, and a Cy Young.
Houston paid him 66 million prorated for 6 innings pitched.
Houston paid for his TJ and rehab.
He hasn’t attended games to mentor young pitchers.
I doubt he returns to endure the boos the Astros receive every game..
I think he was mentally gone as soon as he decided to wait until season end to have TJ.
He gave Houston a lot prior to his extension,
Since his extension he gave Houston 6 innings in 1 game.
I wish him well, but doubt he ever wears a Houston uniform again.
If he’s going to the Motor City, JV best take along a few talented position players. They are far from winning without 6 new position player upgrades. Or 8.
They played Balt, Minn, Tx and a depleted Clev. Won a bunch of games in a month against other teams who aren’t even trying to win….so suddenly, they’re a cheater away for SS. Hinch is going suggest one of the biggest cheaters there was. Look at the BA.
He could take Correa with him which would be a nice start for the Tigers.
Detroit.
It’s worth $19 million just to have his wife around…
If Verlander holds a showcase this off-season and is still throwing heat, he will receive multiple offers of $20m plus. I see him signing for something like 2yr 60m, assuming he looks like his old self. Tigers are a likely destination.
I wish I could bet you money. There’s no way ANYONE is giving him anything close to 30m AAV. Gosh the takes here are so biased
I’m open to bets BeforeMcCourt. Let’s set the over/under at $25m aav for Verlander in 2022. I’ll take the over. Obviously, I’m screwed if Verlander is throwing 88 post surgery, but I’ll bet he’ll still be throwing heat and a team (or ten) will see him as the missing piece to a deep playoff run.
Is that 25m guaranteed? If it is, I absolutely take the under on that.
you don’t promise a guy $19 million because he might impress at a showcase. if that happens then you just sign him for more, knowing he very well might have declined the QO anyway.
Verlander should make good with the Astros and sign for a $5MM / 1 year deal. Something to make up for the past two seasons that were lost.
Why would he do that?
Can the Astro’s improve their bullpen with $19M instead? I think they can with $9M. That’s my answer.
Cheater
Nah he tweakin
cheatin*
Is this question a joke? I think the Angels would be the only team desperate enough to offer JV a QO now.
i dont see “desperate.” they have some nice young SP and clearly can play well without him. maybe they want him at $19 per, but they will have money to play with and not a terrible lot of rotation holes in full need of being filled.
11 years ago the A’s signed Ben Sheets for 1 year/$10M on a bounce back contract to pitch for them after he was out of the game for a year, coming off a $12.125M salary on his previous contract.
Modern equivalent of earning $12M to come back after earning $14.5M previously.
Equivalent would be Verlander still earning $28M next season.
Ben Sheets was a good pitcher but he didn’t have anywhere near the pedigree or reputation that Verlander does. Verlander is a 1st Ballot HOFer with numbers that put him in the top 15 or 20 or possibly even 10 all time in various pitching categories.
Granted, multiple Cy Young Award Winner Corey Kluber is currently on a 1 year/$11M bounce back deal that didn’t pan out for the Yankees, or has not thus far, though he did throw a no hitter before hitting the IL for the bulk of the season and is yet to return, might make 3-4 starts before the season ends, if he’s healthy and nobody knows how those theoretical starts would go. At most the Yankees will get like 14 starts from Kluber when he’d normally have given them around 30 starts.
Cole Hamels signed a 1 year/$18M deal to make 1 start for Atlanta last year.
I think realistically you have to consider those kinds of results to be very possible outcomes with Verlander on any bounce back contract, because as great as he has been, he is human and he’s aging and he’s coming back from serious injury and serious surgery.
The thing is, I don’t think Verlander is going to make the effort to keep pitching for less than $20M or so.
If he was willing to pitch for any less than that, even after two years off and surgery, even at 40, every team in the league would extend him an offer.
Verlander probably wants to stay in Houston, probably wants to make as much money as possible before he retires and probably wants to be considered elite even going into a bounce back year, which, salary indicates eliteness on bounce back deals.
So, yeah, I think Houston extends Verlander the QO and I think Verlander accepts 1 year/$19M to maybe pitch again after earning $66M over two seasons to not pitch.
3 years/$85M also essentially maintains his previous $28M AAV and turns that 5 year/$140M deal into an 8 year/225M deal overall for Verlander.
I think he takes it as a kind of retirement bonus. No way is he pitching in 2023. At least, that’d be absolutely shocking.
I wonder if you would spend that if it was your money?
Verlander has repeatedly said he’d like to pitch until he’s 45.
If the Astros don’t resign Correa, I don’t think they have anything to lose in offering Verlander the 1-year, $19 million, QO. They’ll have more than enough luxury tax cap space to do so if Correa walks. Sure, maybe the signing is a bust – but if it’s not putting the Astros over the tax – he’s certainly worth the risk. So, from the Astros perspective – if Correa walks – it’s a no brainer to offer Verlander the QO.
In terms of Verlander accepting or rejecting – it’s tricky. I think he rejects it. While he may get less AAV – I think he will want to enter FA for the first time and choose his destination. Preferably a two-year deal with a ton of incentives. But, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he accepts it either.
So everyone who thinks Verlander gets more than 19M, you think a team will also give up a high draft pick to take a 19M+ gamble?
I wouldn’t pay $19MM for him until I see how he adapts to the new crackdown on spidertack. Cole has adapted quite well after a brief learning curve of 3-4 starts where he was awful ( could be coincidental but we will never know) while some others still haven’t gotten back to their pre-ban stats. That , coupled with his age and coming off TJ, should be enough reason not to risk it. Offer him $12MM with incentives that could bring it to $25MM with 2 option years at $30MM with a $10MM buyout. of the 2nd option.
A $19M option for a recovery year?
Let some other team pay that.
As great as he’s been, you’d have to be a risk-taking GM to bet that kind of money. Do you really think you can get 150 IP out of him? Is 19M worth it for 60IP out of the bullpen (you can ask the Yankees how they feel about that).
I can see the Astros issue a QO, and Verlander declines.
No other team offers him more money due to his TJ.
Verlander puts on a showcase.
Teams wait out till after the draft then sign him for the remainder of the season in a Keuchelesque deal to screw the Astros out of their comp pick.
They get Verlander on the cheap.
Remember when Forest Whitley a top prospect , now he’s not even mentioned as was an upper level arm …
Verlander is too much of a mystery to commit 19 million to. If you can get Correa for 30 mil, and re-sign Greinke for 20 to 25, that’s your best bet. Also, pay Graveman.
Too much money for Greinke. Just too old ,makes him a risk. he needs a Wainwright contract!
Maybe you’re right, that it is a stretch for Greinke. But my point is is that I would pay more for him at this point than I would Verlander. Now if he holds a workout session and blows everybody away, then you rethink it. Even then though it’s a pretty heavy risk.
1 yr $19 mill is worth it if he’s starting your 1st or 2nd playoff game. It’s a close call for either side. JV is in a good spot, hell play for a good team regardless.
My guess is that he’d be extended the QO and will turn it down in the hope of getting an extended deal in the 2-3 year range and he’ll probably get it if he’s will to take a pay cut. I’d guess a team will pay him $17.5/year over 3 years… they shouldn’t but I think someone will… I could see TOR making a run at him. Time will tell
Jays offering JV 2 years to solidify the rotation ( of course Ray must come back as well)
Too much money for the broken down super star! Let him walk, as a Business decision!
This has Braves written all over it, shelled out $18mm for a broke down Cole Hamels, $25mm the year prior for a questionable josh donaldson. If Verlander is open to a 1 year pillow contract and is willing on betting on himself I could see it happening.
If JV were extended the QO, it would be a pretty low character move to reject after being paid a fortune of late for nothing. Then again, few would feel bad for Astros.
It’s not a sure thing Justin Verlander can be ready to pitch opening day. I think the Astros look for less expensive options.
I’m just laughing at the posts earlier thinking Hamels is a hall of fame player. And notice my name.
Borderline is an important word
The first year after TJ surgery can be brutal. Hopefully he does a QO or a one year contract and then comes home to Detroit!
Excellent comments by all. Generally the first year back from TJ is a bit of a struggle trying to get the feel and confidence back. Plus at that age, will the shoulder be next, if he’s compensating feel. It’s a lot of money to chance unless you’re one of the big boys. Dodgers, Yankees etc