The Cardinals’ rotation for 2022 is 80% set, with Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson pencilled into four out of the five slots. However, that last spot could still seemingly go in many different ways, either with internal or external options. Derrick S. Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch spoke to the team’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about the various paths they’re choosing between.
The club is apparently giving consideration to Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks, both of whom having been primarily working as relievers in recent years and are questionable fits for rotation jobs. Reyes had an excellent year out of the bullpen in 2021, eventually becoming the team’s closer. In 72 1/3 innings, he had an ERA of 3.24 with a strikeout rate of 30% and notched 29 saves. However, that also came with a walk rate of 16.4%, around twice the league average. He also comes with a lengthy injury history that has limited his contributions in his career thus far. Those 72 1/3 innings from this year are the most he’s thrown since 2016, when he threw 111 1/3 between Triple-A and the big leagues, which is the most he’s logged in a single season. That was followed by a completely lost season in 2017 and three straight years of just a few dozen each.
The situation with Hicks is somewhat comparable, as he had an excellent season in 2018, throwing 77 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 3.59 ERA. However, he was limited to 28 2/3 innings in 2019 before having to undergo Tommy John surgery, opted out of 2020 and then was limited by injuries to just 13 innings in 2021, between Triple-A and the big leagues. Expecting him to jump into a rotation job at this point seems like a tall ask, and Mozeliak admitted as much. “My guess is no better than yours or anybody else’s,” he said, in regards to what Hicks could provide in the future. “For him to go out and pitch north of 100 innings would be maybe putting him in a difficult spot.”
In addition to those two, Goold also lists Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo and Genesis Cabrera as those who are in the mix. Despite all of those candidates, the club is still looking into external options, which is understandable based on how 2021 went. Multiple injuries caused the club the struggle in the first half, leading them to make the mid-summer additions of Jon Lester, J.A. Happ and Wade LeBlanc. Although that helped stabilize the staff and get the club into the playoffs, they’re all now free agents. As Mozeliak puts it, “Last year, we thought we had nine or 10. I think you’ve got to have some protection going in regardless of what we say we’re going to get them to do… Having some additional arms is healthy.”
Goold’s report says that free agent Max Scherzer “would entertain an offer from the Cardinals”, which is notable because Scherzer was apparently unwilling to waive his no-trade clause to join them this past summer, preferring to become a member of a West Coast club. However, now that he is trying to maximize his earning potential, it makes sense that he would try to keep as many buyers at the table as possible, in order to ensure healthy bidding. Even if Scherzer is genuinely open to working in Missouri, where he was born and raised, the club may have trouble fitting him into the budget, as their 2022 payroll is currently over $142MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s around $20MM shy of 2021’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise record, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Scherzer is likely to command much more than that for an annual salary, with MLBTR recently predicting he garners a contract of $120MM over three years, an annual average value of $40MM.
A pitcher who will come much cheaper is Steven Matz, who was at the GM Meetings yesterday, according to Tim Healey of Newsday. Healey lists the Cardinals as being interested in his services, along with the Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers. MLBTR predicted Matz to land a deal of $27MM over three years, an AAV of $9MM which would certainly fit into the Cards’ payroll much more neatly than Scherzer’s. Matz had a solid year for the Blue Jays in 2021, throwing 150 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.82. He figures to be popular among teams hesitant to surrender draft picks, as he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Jays.
Jordan Hicks, a starter? The same guy that didn’t pitch last year? Come on man.
@Binnington50 This was always the plan for Hicks. The only reason he was brought up as a RP is because Yadi pretty much demanded it. I still believe he’s best in relief, but don’t act surprised.
HE DIDN’T PITCH LAST YEAR. He’s NOT going to be a starter. This is just more BS spouting out of the mouth of MO.
So Mo has been spouting that BS about Hicks since his call up years ago?? No, you’re just out of touch and don’t do research. Hicks’ plan was always as a starter – has been for YEARS. He almost certainly won’t end up in the rotation, but for you to say it’s BS shows you haven’t looked up his MiLB stats. You’d see he was a starter. Out of his 44 career appreances in the minors, only THREE were in relief.
He was never intended to be a reliever.
I haven’t been doing my research? Perhaps you’re not familiar with how pitching works and perhaps you didn’t read the article.
Hicks threw 13 innings last year. He is not going to be a starter. So get off your high horse and YOU DO SOME RESEARCH.
Justin Verlander didnt start last year and yet he’s going to be a starter in 2022.
Yes, you’re out of touch and your epithets prove as such – no response other than calling me a moron. I provided stats, what did you provide? You would’ve known what I said by simply clicking on the link provided. I don’t care if he didn’t pitch last year, nor do the Cardinals. You can build a young guy up to start.
You seem to be missing that I have REPEATEDLY SAID THAT HICKS WON’T MAKE THE ROTATION. I’m not making that argument.
Hey genius, he’s an aged veteran that has been a starter his entire career. I’m amazed at the lack of intelligence in here. It’s really not that hard to comprehend people. Hicks has never been a starter. He threw 13 innings last year. They’re not going to make him a starter now. Keep trying.
Did you not see that I clearly said he threw 13 innings last year? Reading comprehension is tough for you. I’m sorry.
Click on Jordan Hicks name in the article. Click to view his MiLB stats. He’s thrown 168.2 IP as a professional SP, to only 116.1 as an RP.
Keep trying. You seem allergic to numbers.
You’re comparing Jordan Hicks to Justin Verlander?
You guys arguing like kids drag this page down so much it sucks. Grow up!
That’s still just a 3-2 split, and there’s been zillions of starters in the i-ball that didn’t become that in the MLB ball. #fify
Lol I love when people come on here and start insulting other people they don’t even know
Because of their baseball opinions
I don’t care how many innings he has thrown as a starting pitcher versus how many innings he has thrown as a relief pitcher. Every one of you seem to be missing the point. The point is that he threw 13 innings last year. He basically took the entire year off. He is not going to come back as a starting pitcher. Wake up!
His comparison to Verlander was solely based on innings pitched in 2021. Hicks had 10, Verlander had 0. So taking that single factor into account, I’d say it’s a pretty good comparison..
So you’re telling me there’s a chance ?
Petulant child…nobody is saying he will with certainty, only that it is an option to look at. You dismissing it completely is close minded and makes me happy you are not running the team. BTW, waino pitched 28 innings in ‘15 to come back in ‘16 to throw 200 in 33 starts. It’s ok to have an opinion but let others have one too. Your poor ex wife.
What is your reasoning that he couldn’t? If you put him on a strict pitch and innings count it can happen.
hicks was a starter in the minor leagues. as far as his injury it would probably be better for him to start than have to pitch in back to back or even back to back to back games as a reliever. don’t think he will make the rotation but he will be given the opportunity.
Binnington50 You’re an embarrassment to actual knowledgeable Cards fans. Take this trash to one of those Bfib Facebook groups
@redbird
Yeah if you ignore Verlander’s entire career efore the injury it’s a great comparison.
Binnington50 – I didn’t do my research either but I did watch every Cardinal game. Btw, he also didn’t pitch in 2020, so basically he hasn’t pitched since the 2019 season for the Cardinals when he threw very limited innings before getting hurt in June of 2019. I think around 30 innings or less so, that means he has thrown about 40 innings since 2018. He will most definitely be in the pen with Reyes unless a starter gets injured then Reyes will probably get the call.
Bigger issue? Don’t need to read between many lines to see that any free agency pitching pickups won’t be higher-level than Matz, if that, among starters.
Shock me.
Trevor Bauer probably helped out Scherzer a lot by taking that short term deal. If Bauer doesn’t get those $40-45M AAV’s on the first 2 option years of his deal I don’t think Sherzer or anyone gets a penny over $36M AAV this off-season. Trout and Cole would still be the standard at $36M and at Scherzer’s age I don’t think he would have done enough to be considered that much better than them if at all.
I’m not sure where you got the info about the plan for Hicks always being a starter. It wasn’t even considered until recently when he approached Mozeliak about it. Hicks thinks he’ll be healthier with a schedule, not working several days in a row, and at a lower velo. This was all reported by Derrick Goold in the same article they reference here.
easy to see the information. hicks was always a starter in the minor leagues. he was forced into closing when the Cards had the need.. was in AA starting at the time.
I thought Hicks’ arm was toast and wasn’t expecting to seem him back in the majors again. Didn’t the cards learn their lesson last year about counting on this kind of stuff for their rotation?
Well you thought wrong, because no one ever said that.
I’ve been right so far.
Guy that hasn’t pitched since 2019
I thought the idea of the cards getting Scherzer was more comical than Hicks as a starter.
It’s a good thing that Miles Mikolas is penciled in and not written in ink because we see how that’s gone for the Cardinals thus far.
I’m not super high on Mikolas but if you’re upset by him in the rotation you’re spoiled. He’s shown he’s a 2- or- 3 starter outside of injuries. You old head Cardinal fans really need to look up a statsheet.
i mean that injury impact is pretty huge though.
It’s for sure something to keep an eye on, but we haven’t really seen much post-recovery. Players are coming back from his injuries just fine now. He is older, but there’s no reason to be sour on him other than further injury concerns, in my opinion. Lloyd was acting like he’d be high up in the rotation haha
SOME players are coming back from his injuries just fine now.
#fify
Unfortunately those guys don’t appear to be Mikolas or Hicks based on their lack of playing time since 2018. We lost 7 other pitchers off the payroll in Lester, LeBlanc Gant, Kim, Miller, Garcia, Helesely. They all helped us make it to the Wild Card with that great September. If Moz says he’s only going after Matz to replace those 7 arms it appears to me that he and the owner don’t intend to compete for the post season next year. Unless Flaherty, Mikolas and Hicks come back strong they can’t replace 5 arms with one.
Helsley is still on the team
Gant was traded earlier in the year.
Big old asterisk there, especially with Mo essentially saying he’s not spending money to sign any real starters in free agency. Emerson’s right.
No, not a big old asterisk. Over 70% of players are coming back just fine from the injuries he’s had. Lloyd is not right. There’s no reason to believe Mikolas won’t be one of the best back-of-the-rotation starters in MLB. Key phrase: back-of-the-rotation, where he will be.
Well, who’s at the front of the rotation, genius?
Don’t say Waino; don’t expect him to repeat last year at 40.
Don’t say Flaherty until we know he’s healthy for sure and 100 percent good.
And, no, I don’t Mikolas will be “one of the best” on the back half. He projects to be about exactly average for a No. 3 starter.
Flaherty will be just fine. it wasn’t an arm injury. plus who’s to say Wainwright won’t be even better than last year. He was better last year than the year before and better that year than the year before. he has changed his approach and it seems to be working pretty well.
The only concern I have about Mikolas is that he doesn’t appear to have gotten past his TJ surgery, which makes him an unreliable choice. He has had the one good season and nothing since. Being an old head Cardinal fan, I still have hope he makes it this year, but for now, zero confidence.
I’d take Lance Lynn over Miles Mikolas and draft pick compensation. That was the only difference, a few million and that damn draft pick
I’m not upset with having Mikolas, I’d just rather would have kept Lynn, who has been healthier, and gotten cy young considerations in the past 2 years
Matz is getting more than $27 million over 3 years.
Agree. I’d expect more like 14 to 17 million per year.
Other than an abbreviated pre-rookie year, he’s never busted 120 ERA+. Never busted 160 innings. 14-17M? Not a chance.
Only 43 pitchers surpassed that in 2021, that’s less than 1.5 starters per team that pitched more than 160 innings, probably around by 15-20% of all starters.
The days of 200+ inning pitchers is over and because GMs will use today’s value, Matz is easily going to get 15 mil a year.
Genesis Cabrera really shouldn’t be considered as a potential starter. He’s looked good as a late inning reliever and his stuff plays much better out of the bullpen. He was only hitting 93 as a starter but gets to 98 as a reliever.
That’s tight.
Cabrera would make a good starter. Was most of his career in MiLB. I like him for a starters role more than Hicks, or Reyes.
The section on Reyes seems to be missing the part where he lost all his confidence towards the end of the season before Schildt put the final nail in the coffin bringing him in for the 9th in that wildcard game. Hope he recovers, but you could see the look of defeat on his face in those last few games he was brought in to close.
The author of this article is clueless. “Apparently” the Cardinals are considering Reyes and Hicks for their rotation? Oh, the former #1 RHP prospect in MLB with less than 200 career IP is a candidate? Shocking.
Hicks as a starter sounds laughable until you see 41/44 MiLB appearances were as a starter. Neither of these things are surprising in the slightest. I guess it doesn’t take much to get a job at MLBTR these days. Fallen off big.
Gads, you know-it-all kids are too much come Silly Season….
The MLBTR writer is referring to an article from Derrick S. Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch – who has been the chief Cardinals writer / reporter for decades.
Lol the author is the one that said “apparently” and he put his own twist on it plenty. As hit-or-miss Goold can be nowadays, he never said “apparently.” I know this for a fact because I read every article and tweet he sends out. I guarantee you can’t say the same given your comment. Know why? Because Goold mentioned Liberatore. Show me where Libby is mentioned here, I’ll wait.
People like you are the reason “respect your elders” is laughed at nowadays. Respect is earned, not given.
And to add, I’m in my mid 20s. Not some angsty kid writing this.
You write like a kid. You slam people and a publication for this?
Wow! In your 20’s!! Let me assure you that you’ll be getting exactly the respect you’ve earned.
Look at it this way……
Your standards and expectations of others are simply too high for the people working at MLBTR, and those of us reading it and positing on it. You’re too good for this place. Maybe you should take your business elsewhere. No?
In your mid-20’s, you may not be a kid anymore, but you still have a lot of growing up to do.
well I’m over 70, saw my first Cardinal game in 1954 and watch probably 150 games a year. agree with most everything you have said. I’m more concerned about the lack of contact by the hitters than I am who will be the fifth starter.
My comment had nothing to do with the opinion on baseball, but rather the internet tough guy approach being taken by postcards.
Same here. I started following them on the radio in 1951. I was 7 and my dad and I would listen to their games on a station out of St Joe carrying the KOMO feed out of St Louis. Great memories sitting at a picnic tape in the back yard with lemonades with the radio plugged in the kitchen window – transistor radios were still about 8 years away.
not seeing Liberatore even mentioned here feels kinda off.
Lol
So, shorter Mo:
We ain’t signing no steenkin starting pitchers in free agency, so deal with it, all you junior GMs!
Please…. stop the fools who keep mentioning Scherzer coming to STL…. never was going to happen and never will happen….. get real.
Lol maybe when he is 48 and accepts a minor league invite…
This entire thread is Cardinal fans arguing about who knows more about the Cardinals. “The best fans in baseball”, just keeping it classy up in here.
We’re also apparently the best gate keepers in baseball as well lmao
If you notice, it’s just one or two people. Kind of like a moron that throws stuff onto the field, it unfortunately represents the entire fan base inaccurately.
Cards fans are certainly some of the classiest fans in MLB and on the boards. Just saying.
Both of these guys would shock me as starters unless they completely change the way they pitch. Reyes walks WAY too many batters. From my perspective that seems to get worse when a pitcher becomes a starter. I watched Reyes enter a game late against the Braves this season and the Cardinals had the lead but the Braves had the bases loaded. Reyes promptly walked the next 5 consecutive batters he faced all with the bases loaded to blow the game. I don’t even know how it’s possible to walk in 5 runs in a row. I’ve never seen a manager leave a pitcher in there long enough to do that before.
Hicks’ problem is I don’t think he will ever stay healthy unless he stops trying to throw so freaking hard. I watched a game where he had just gotten off of a long term IL stint. He literally threw as hard as he could on almost every single pitch. His body looked like it was under so much strain and sure enough the very next day he was back on the IL for the rest of the season. He was throwing so hard he couldn’t even can his pitches the slightest bit. They were all out of the strike zone. Instead of worrying about velocity and hitting 105 in the radar he needs to tone it down some and make sure he can locate. If he did that I am sure he could still pitch over 100mph. Hicks looks like his goal is to break Aroldis Chapman’s record 106mph fastball every time he makes a pitch. He will never stay healthy I maintain any sort of command that way.
If either of those guys can solve their problems I would love to see them become starters. They both have nasty stuff. I am very skeptical that either of them will ever be able to make that translate into starting pitcher caliber performance. They look like they can barely do it as relievers.
I can see Reyes getting better with regards to walks. Last season was his first healthy season arguably since the high minors. Give him a shot in the spring and worse case scenario back to the bullpen.
actually control becomes less of an issue as a starter.. not coming in with runners on or with the game on the line in the 9th or 8th inning. more opportunity to work with all your pitches and not having to be as fine with each.
I think Postcards is like this guy (and others like him on Twitter) I blogged about over the Shildt firing: https://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2021/10/mike-shildt-part-3-cards-fans-kissing.html
st louis ruins pitchers that start in the minors and then make them pay their dues as a reliever in the majors. then, build them back up to start. it’s call yo yo me now, send me for tommy john later
If I was the Cardinals I’d try to go for Marcus Stroman
Bottom line, the risk is too great to start the season hoping that 2 of your 5 starters (Mikolas and Hudson) will be healthy and relying on Wainwright’s health at age 41.
It appears to be even a greater risk to rely on any pitcher who has not thrown greater than 100 innings in the past several years and have health issues (Hicks and Reyes as exhibits).
Don’t recall the Herzog or LaRussa / Jockey era(s) having this much difficulty in finding quality starters (and bullpen). Appears to be a Mozalik issue.
Well hell. I was genuinely hopeful that with all the contracts coming off the books, they intended to spend. This statement is the precursor to “we need to find out what we’ve got”. It’s going to be business as usual in St. Louis this winter. Mo is just letting us down softly.
With that infield defense and Wainwright likely done after 2022, a multi-year deal with Stroman would be awesome. But any combination of Matz, Greinke, or Nick Martinez would be welcome frankly.
Did Mo not watch this last season? The Cardinals were horrible! They had one short decent stretch in May and then of course we all remember September. But those were two streaks, not a season-long example of good baseball. Injuries hurt, but their pitching staff walked way too many batters. Hitters couldn’t hit save for O’Neil. You can’t base this offseason off of what happened in September. Well…you could and then of course everyone keeps laughing at you. I hope the brass shows up in a big way this offseason. And it doesn’t have to be Sherzer big. Just a reasonable effort to IMPROVE, not maintain. Because maintaining gets them to the WC game at best.
Mo only watches to find ways to cover his own butt when the Fan Heat is on him.
Then he fires a winning manager who made the playoffs the past 3 seasons. Fires him for Nothing!!!
Because Schildt leveled some constructive criticism to Mozeliak—— Mozeliak pouted — took his ball and went home sulking. Then Fired Schildt after getting the owners support to do so.
Crazy!!!!!
All smoke screens this winter for the Cardinals!!!!!
My take on this is
Use Hicks, Reyes and Gallegos as your SU/CL guys.
Then go ahead and stretch Oviedo and Cabrera out to round up that Rotation and spend the money elsewhere. The Carda can really use a true SS. Then they can probably flip DeJong for a bullpen arm or something.
SS and CF is were the money should be spent in St. Louis.
Center field? The outfield is set?
Matz over Scherzer!! Hands down. The Cards get a lefty. He’s a ground ball pitcher. He eats innings.
Plus—— there is still room in the payroll for other additions