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Central Notes: Cabrera, Hicks, Alzolay

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Tigers veteran Miguel Cabrera will turn 40 years old in April, shortly after beginning the final guaranteed season of the mega extension he signed back in 2014. Though he’s not quite the hitter he was back then, he’s still going to be a part of Detroit’s plans next season. “We expect Miggy to be here,” manager A.J. Hinch tells Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. “We expect him to do his part in the offseason to prepare himself to be healthy and be productive and be the icon that he is.”

As noted by McCosky, Cabrera’s 2022 got off to a nice start, as he kept his batting average above .300 into July. However, he has slumped badly since then while dealing with various nagging injuries, currently sitting on a batting line of .251/.299/.315 for the year. That production amounts to a wRC+ of 76, or 24% below league average, which is well below Cabrera’s previous low of 92 from 2017.

Going into the season, it seemed as though Cabrera was on the verge of being nudged out of the club’s plans, as they spent aggressively in the offseason to try to compete in 2022. With the promotion of first base prospect Spencer Torkelson, it was fair to wonder if an awkward situation was approaching with the club trying to compete and Miggy standing in the way. Instead, Torkelson and the Tigers both fell way shy of expectations, with the youngster hitting just .197/.281/.301 so far this year and club sporting a record of 64-93.

The fact that Cabrera is still owed $32MM next year doesn’t mean he is immune from being cut from the team if he continues to underperform. Just last year, the Angels designated Albert Pujols for assignment in May while he was playing out the final year of his contract at a $30MM salary. Both Hinch and new president of baseball operations Scott Harris voiced their support for Cabrera being a part of the 2023 club, though how much of a role he gets to play is likely to be determined.

Some more notes from the Central divisions…

  • The Cardinals are planning to reinstate right-hander Jordan Hicks from the injured list for their final regular season series, which begins tomorrow in Pittsburgh, according to MLB.com. Hicks went on the IL on September 17, retroactive to September 15, due to right arm fatigue. He has long tantalized fans with his triple-digit velocity but also been frequently set back by command issues and injuries. This season, he’s made 34 appearances and has a 4.92 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 57.5% ground ball rate but a 13.6% walk rate. The Cards have already clinched the NL Central and can use their final games to assess the condition of Hicks’s arm before they begin a series against whichever team winds up in the final Wild Card spot.
  • Cubs right-hander Adbert Alzolay seemed to be a potential rotation building block last year, appearing in 26 games with 21 of those being starts, logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.58 ERA. However, this year, a shoulder strain landed him on the injured list to begin the season and he only made his season debut a couple of weeks ago. This mostly lost season has resulted in several pitchers surpassing him on the depth chart and perhaps leading to a move to the bullpen. Alzolay discussed this possibility with Patrick Mooney of The Athletic and seems fine with it. “If my role is best out of the bullpen, being a long guy, being a guy that can throw in the eighth or close a game or whatever, I feel like I have the weapons to do that,” Alzolay says. “You won’t have me every five days there, but you can have me every two or three days. I can go and throw three or four innings, or I can go and throw one inning late in the game. So I feel like there are a lot more options there, and then that allows the team to go and be aggressive during the offseason.” The Cubs’ 2023 rotation will likely consist of Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele, with Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Adrian Sampson and Caleb Kilian having put themselves into consideration to varying degrees. With all of those options, and perhaps some offseason additions, it makes sense for Alzolay and the team to consider new ways for him to be a contributing member of the staff.

NL Notes: Marte, Cardinals, Cruz

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The Mets issued an official statement on Starling Marte’s fractured right middle finger, saying that a recent CT scan “showed improved healing,” and that the center fielder “will continue baseball activities as tolerated.”  This counts as good news, considering that Marte had to halt his first try at baseball activities last week, due to continued discomfort in his finger.  Marte hasn’t played since his finger was hit by a Mitch Keller pitch on September 6.

It remains to be seen if Marte will be able to make it back before the end of the regular season, let alone by his stated target date of Friday, when New York begins a critical three-game series with the Braves that could decide the NL East.  The Mets have continued to play well (a 12-6 record) since Marte was last in the lineup, but obviously having the All-Star center fielder back will boost the Mets’ chances of both capturing the division and potentially winning the World Series.  There hasn’t yet been any indication that Marte could miss any postseason action, but he’ll have less time to heal if the Mets have to settle for a wild card, and don’t receive a first-round bye.

More from the National League…

  • The Cardinals announced that Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana will start on Tuesday and Wednesday in the team’s two-game series against the Brewers.  A sweep would clinch the NL Central for St. Louis, who have a commanding 6.5-game lead over Milwaukee but naturally want to get the division fully settled before looking ahead to the playoffs.  Since the Cardinals are a virtual lock to be the NL’s third seed, they’ll have to play in the wild card round, thus giving manager Oliver Marmol a lot to consider about how to best line up his postseason rotation.  Basically, everything is still to be decided, Marmol told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, including the possibility that the Cards might opt with something close to a standard five-man rotation (assuming they advance past the wild card series, of course).  The recent of struggles of Jordan Montgomery and Adam Wainwright — who is also battling a “dead arm” — have also added to the discussion, and St. Louis also has two remaining off-days in the regular season schedule.
  • In other Cardinals updates, Marmol told MLB.com’s John Denton and other reporters that it may be possible for both Jordan Hicks and Tyler O’Neill to be activated from the injured list before the postseason.  Hicks hasn’t pitched since September 14 due to neck spasms and fatigue in his right arm, but he is set to begin a throwing program on Tuesday.  O’Neill will also begin a running program on Wednesday, as he trise to make it back from a hamstring strain that sent him to the 10-day IL on September 17.
  • Oneil Cruz made two errors in the Pirates’ 8-3 loss to the Cubs today, giving the rookie shortstop 15 errors over 73 games this season at the position.  It made for some unfortunate timing for Pirates GM Ben Cherington, who said in his pregame radio interview (hat tip to Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) that “I see no reason why [Cruz] can’t play shortstop at high level at the major-league level.  I believe he can do it.  Time will tell.  And he’ll tell us.”  Evaluators have long been skeptical about whether or not the 6’7″ Cruz will eventually need a position change, though for the rebuilding Pirates, there really isn’t any reason for the team to not give Cruz a long look at shortstop before deciding if a change is necessary.  Cruz has also played in a handful of games in left field in the minors (and one game in left field in the bigs), which seems like it would be his eventual fallback position if he can’t stick at shortstop.

Cardinals Activate Steven Matz, Place Jordan Hicks On 15-Day Injured List

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In between games of their doubleheader with the Reds today, the Cardinals activated left-hander Steven Matz from the 15-day injured list.  Taking Matz’s spot on the 15-day IL is Jordan Hicks, as the right-hander has been sidelined by both arm fatigue and neck spasms.  Hicks’ placement is retroactive to September 15.

After signing a four-year, $44MM free agent deal during the winter, Matz’s first season in St. Louis has largely been lost to injury — first a shoulder impingement, and then a torn left MCL suffered in his first game back aftr that prior IL stint.  Given the initial concern following the MCL tear, it is somewhat remarkable that Matz is back at all in 2022, but he will be able to work out of the bullpen rather than as a fully built-up starting pitcher.

Beyond just the health woes, Matz’s misfortune extended to his work on the mound.  Despite a very good 4.8% walk rate and 27.4% strikeout rate over his 42 2/3 innings of work this season, Matz has only a 5.70 ERA.  His 3.13 SIERA is far more favorable, yet Matz hasn’t received much batted-ball luck, as evidenced by his .336 BABIP.

Those struggles will be just a memory, however, if Matz is able to contribute as a reliever for a Cardinals team that looks bound for the playoffs, thanks to an eight-game lead in the NL Central.  Getting Matz in the bullpen may help make up for the loss of Hicks, who also missed about five weeks earlier this season due to a flexor strain.

Injuries have plagued Hicks in the past, including a Tommy John surgery in 2019 and a lengthy absence due to elbow soreness last season.  His flexor strain this year ended the Cardinals’ experiment with Hicks as a starting pitcher, and while his advanced metrics are better since his move back to the bullpen, he has only a 4.50 ERA over 34 innings as a reliever, after posting a 5.47 ERA over 26 1/3 innings out of the rotation.  It all adds up to a 4.92 total ERA, and one of the league’s worst (13.6%) walk rates.  Between this performance and now the injury concern, it remains to be seen if the Cards will include Hicks on their postseason roster.

Cardinals Designate Nick Wittgren For Assignment

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves prior to today’s game, with righty Jordan Hicks being activated from the 15-day injured list. Lefty Matthew Liberatore was also recalled to take a spot on the active roster. To create room for those two hurlers, the Cards optioned righty Jake Woodford and designated righty Nick Wittgren for assignment. The club’s 40-man roster now sits at 39, though T.J. McFarland and Genesis Cabrera are currently on the COVID IL and will need roster spots when they are eligible to return.

Wittgren, 31, spent the first three years of his career with the Marlins and the next three with Cleveland. In that time, he established himself as a solid if unspectacular bullpen piece. At the end of the 2021 season, he had 271 1/3 innings under his belt with a 3.75 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 39.9% ground ball rate. He had never posted an ERA above 5.00 until 2021, and even then, it was just 5.05. Cleveland could have controlled him for one more year via arbitration but decided to move on, after which he was scooped up by the Cards on a one-year deal for $1.2MM.

It’s been a difficult season to evaluate for Wittgren, with many of his stats differing from career norms. His strikeout rate has plummeted to 12.7%, barely half of his mark coming into the year. He’s allowed a .333 BABIP, well above his .292 career rate. However, his HR/FB is just 2.9%, well below the 12.4% rate of his career. All of that has resulted in a 5.90 ERA, though advanced metrics are divided as to whether that’s deserved or not. SIERA gives him a 4.73 with xFIP at 5.14, but xERA and FIP have him at 3.83 and 3.85, respectively. There’s some wide variance there, but all of those metrics feel he’s better than his ERA suggests. According to Statcast, Wittgren is in the 99th percentile in terms of barrel percentage and 78th percentile in terms of hard hit percentage. Any team that needs bullpen help and believes that Wittgren’s suppression of hard contract is sustainable could be interested in acquiring his services. The Cardinals will have a week to work out a trade or put him on waivers.

As for Hicks, he returns after just over a month on the IL due to a forearm strain. Though the Cardinals tinkered with adding him to the rotation earlier in the year, he seems ticketed for a return to the bullpen now. In his four rehab outings, he tossed five total innings, with all but one of those appearances being of the one-inning variety. Despite tantalizing stuff, Hicks has been limited by injuries in recent years. After throwing 77 2/3 innings in 2018, he’s thrown just 67 1/3 total frames in the four subsequent seasons.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Dickerson, Hicks, Thompson

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Tyler O’Neill is back on the injured list, as the club put him on the 10-day IL before this evening’s contest with the Brewers due to a left hamstring strain. Lars Nootbaar was recalled from Triple-A Memphis to take his place on the active roster, while utilityman Brendan Donovan kicked out to left field for tonight’s game.

The team didn’t provide a timetable for O’Neill’s recovery. It’s the latest in what has been a very disappointing season for the slugging outfielder. He lost a couple weeks in May battling a right shoulder impingement, and he’s not been as productive as anticipated even when healthy. Through 185 plate appearances on the season, the 26-year-old (27 on Wednesday) owns a .241/.292/.361 slash with only four home runs. That’s on the heels of a 34-homer campaign, and O’Neill’s had a rather startling dip in batted ball quality (barrel rate, hard contact rate, etc.) to go along with the lesser results.

Donovan figures to step in fairly regularly in left in O’Neill’s absence. The lefty-hitting rookie has a .315/.424/.434 mark through 170 plate appearances. That relatively quiet excellence has earned him a spot in the regular batting order, although manager Oli Marmol has had to shuffle Donovan around the diamond with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman and Nolan Arenado serving as the primary infield.

Nootbaar and the righty-hitting Juan Yepez will likely also cycle through the corner outfield and designated hitter. Veteran Corey Dickerson was signed to a one-year deal over the offseason to play a similar role, but he’s been out for a couple weeks with a calf strain. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Dickerson felt continued discomfort after a rehab appearance in Memphis last Thursday, causing him to transition to non-game activities for a few days. The hope is he could resume the rehab stint as soon as tomorrow.

Dickerson would be joined by Jordan Hicks, who is set to start a rehab assignment of his own there tomorrow (relayed by Katie Woo of the Athletic). Hicks has missed the past three weeks with a forearm strain in his throwing arm, the latest issue for a pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019 and missed two months with elbow inflammation last season. It’s a welcome development that Hicks is set to return to the mound in relatively short order this time around.

Woo adds that the club is planning to deploy Hicks out of the bullpen. The flamethrowing righty worked exclusively in relief for the first few seasons of his major league career, spending a chunk of the 2018-19 seasons as the club’s closer. He surprisingly lengthened out into a starter this year and cracked the season-opening rotation, making his first seven big league starts (in nine outings) before landing on the IL.

Hicks had a rough showing in that role, though, posting a 5.02 ERA through 28 2/3 innings. He’s struck out a decent 23% of opponents while racking up grounders on more than half the batted balls against him, but he’s also struggled significantly to throw strikes. Hicks walked almost 16% of batters faced, and the club seems set to transition him back to his more familiar relief role.

That could suggest Andre Pallante is ticketed for a longer look in the rotation. The rookie right-hander opened the season in the bullpen, but he’s started three of his four most recent appearances. Pallante, who started in college and in the minor leagues, reached 5 2/3 innings yesterday against the Red Sox — suggesting the Cards are comfortable with him turning lineups over at least twice in an outing.

The rest of the starting staff is established, with Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson and Adam Wainwright making a strong top four. Offseason signee Steven Matz is on the IL with a shoulder injury, but Pallante seems to be settling into the #5 role. Former first-round pick Zack Thompson is also on the active roster and has worked as a starter this season with Memphis, but it appears the club views him as a primary relief option at the major league level for now. Marmol indicated this afternoon that Thompson could see more higher-leverage work moving forward (via John Denton of MLB.com).

Cardinals Place Jordan Hicks On IL With Forearm Strain

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Cardinals righty Jordan Hicks tells reporters, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that he is going on the injured list with a forearm strain. Shortly after Hicks made that reveal, the club announced a batch of roster moves, with catcher Yadier Molina being activated from the bereavement list. Righties Kodi Whitley and Jake Woodford were recalled. To make room for those three on the active roster, Hicks was placed on the IL, while righty Junior Fernandez and catcher Ivan Herrera were optioned to Triple-A.

Any injury to a pitcher’s throwing arm can be a cause for concern, with the terminology of “forearm strain” often being particularly frightening as it can be a precursor to Tommy John surgery. However, the details coming from the club suggest that they aren’t pressing any alarm buttons just yet. Hicks tells reporters, including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, that it feels minor compared to his previous injuries, categorizing it as normal soreness that occurs for starting pitchers between outings. (Hicks underwent Tommy John in 2019.) He doesn’t seem to be anticipating a lengthy absence, as he tells Jones that he expects to be back this season, either as a starter or a reliever, depending on the team’s situation in the long run.

Due to injuries to Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes, the Cardinals had a rotation need to begin the year and decided to transition Hicks from reliever to starter, stretching him out as the season went along. The results haven’t been eye-popping so far, with the fireballer currently sporting a 5.02 ERA over 28 2/3 innings, along with a 23% strikeout rate, 15.9% walk rate and 55.6% grounder rate.

Flaherty and Reyes are both still on the IL and were recently joined by Steven Matz. Prospect Matthew Liberatore has been called up and seems to have taken over a spot in the rotation for now, alongside Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas. That still leaves them shorthanded, and the Cards are playing 12 games in the next 11 days thanks to a June 4 doubleheader. Packy Naughton has already been with the big league club this year and could be recalled to help out. Angel Rondon had a good outing for the club earlier this week but was optioned the next day, May 23. Pitchers must stay in the minors for 15 days after being optioned, unless replacing a player going on the IL or if they are acting as the 27th man for a doubleheader. Woodford, recalled today, has made two Triple-A starts this year, though logging only three innings in each of them.

Jordan Hicks To Begin Season In Cardinals’ Rotation

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The Cardinals will open the season with former closer Jordan Hicks as their No. 5 starter, reports John Denton of MLB.com (Twitter link). The flamethrowing sinkerballer has appeared in 112 Major League games but will be making his first big league start whenever he takes the mound this year.

There’s been talk of bringing Hicks to camp and stretching him out as a starter dating back to late last season, but it’s nevertheless something of a surprise that he’ll be tabbed for rotation work to begin the season. Were it not for injuries to Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes, Hicks may well have opened the year as a member of the St. Louis bullpen once again, but instead it seems he’s beaten out offseason additions Drew VerHagen and Aaron Brooks for the final starting job behind Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz, Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas.

Working as a starting pitcher isn’t an entirely foreign role for Hicks, it should be noted. He appeared in 37 minor league games before making his big league debut, and 34 of those came out of the rotation. The Cards are still in the process of building Hicks up, as Denton adds that the Cards are hoping he’ll be able to complete two to three innings his first time out against the Royals next Tuesday.

The move of Hicks into the rotation comes on the heels of a two-year stretch in which the right-hander has thrown just 10 Major League innings. The 25-year-old righty underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2019, sidelining him for the remainder of that season and setting the stage for a return in summer of the 2020 season. Of course, the 2020 season wound up not even beginning until late July. Hicks, who had experienced a slight setback in his rehab and was deemed a high-risk individual due to Type 1 diabetes, opted out of that 2020 season, citing health and safety concerns.

He returned to the mound early in the 2021 campaign but landed back on the shelf just a month into the season, due to soreness in his surgically repaired right elbow. Hicks was initially shut down from throwing for a six-week period, but he wound up unable to resume throwing until late August. At that point, the Cardinals opted for a cautious approach to his rehab rather than rushing him back and dropping him into the middle of a postseason push. Hicks did pitch in a pair of games in the Arizona Fall League, and he’s been healthy enough this spring that the Cards feel comfortable pushing him in a new role.

Whether the move to a starting role is permanent or not remains to be seen, but it’s easy to see why the Cardinals are intrigued by the idea of Hicks shouldering a larger workload. The right-hander is one of the game’s most electric talents, averaging a blistering 100.6 mph on a sinker that has helped him post a 63% ground-ball rate in his career. Hicks doesn’t rack up strikeouts quite like some might expect for a pitcher with his velocity (22.5% strikeout rate), and his 13.4% walk rate is a bit concerning. Still, a ground-ball pitcher with this type of velocity and the Cardinals’ all-world infield defense behind him could take his game to a new level if he’s healthy and able to work a notable slate of innings in 2022.

Cardinals Notes: Hicks, Reyes, Designated Hitter, Shortstop, DeJong,

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The Cardinals have made one relatively minor move since the lockout was lifted, signing reliever Drew VerHagen to a two-year deal. He steps into a bullpen that also features Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley and T.J. McFarland and seems as if it’ll include flamethrowing righties Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks.

St. Louis brass has floated the idea of each of Reyes and Hicks lengthening out into rotation roles over the offseason. Yet president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cast some doubt on that possibility when speaking with reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) yesterday.

“I do think getting Alex and Jordan stretched is going to be much more challenging than in a normal time,” Mozeliak said in reference to the ban on staff members from communicating with players on their 40-man rosters between December 2 and March 10. While he didn’t specifically rule a rotation conversion out, that prospect always seemed a bit of a reach — particularly with regards to Hicks. Hicks pitched only ten innings in 2021, as he went on the injured list in early May with elbow inflammation that proved season-ending. That came on the heels of a June 2019 Tommy John surgery that had wiped out his prior season and a half, so building him towards a starter’s workload would’ve been a challenge even had there not been a work stoppage.

Reyes logged a full season in 2021, tossing 72 1/3 frames over 69 appearances. That marks almost exactly the same amount of work Reyes took on at the major league level from 2016-20 combined, as he also required a Tommy John procedure (in February 2017, in his case). He struggled quite a bit in the second half, and his 16.4% walk rate was higher than that of any starting pitcher last year. Between those innings and strike-throwing concerns, Reyes might also have had trouble cracking a starting rotation that currently projects to include Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas.

Mozeliak also addressed the position player mix, suggesting the club might look externally for help in handling the designated hitter spot now available for National League teams (Jones link). He suggested that internal options like Lars Nootbaar or Juan Yepez could be considered for that role but noted there may be “short term solutions” available on the market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported during the lockout that former Pirates infielder Colin Moran was of interest to the Cards, presumably as an option for such a role.

One position at which it doesn’t seem the Cardinals will consider outside help is shortstop. Speaking with Dani Wexelman of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this afternoon (Twitter link), Mozeliak downplayed the possibility of upgrading there. “I don’t think so,” he replied when asked if they’d acquire another shortstop. “We met with Paul (DeJong) prior to the lockout. We told him we thought he could be our shortstop. … Obviously, there’s going to be some competition in this camp with somebody like Edmundo Sosa, but in terms of going outside of that, I don’t think that makes a whole lot of sense for us.”

That’s not a surprise, as reports have increasingly suggested the Cardinals seem confident in DeJong’s ability to bounce back from a second straight down year at the plate. He rates highly in the eyes of public defensive metrics, and last year’s career-best barrel rate suggests he can continue to at least bring some power to the table offensively. St. Louis was mentioned earlier in the offseason as a speculative fit for star free agents like Carlos Correa or Trevor Story, but Mozeliak’s comments seem to close the book on the chances they make a run at either player.

Cardinals Notes: Reyes, Hicks, Scherzer, Matz

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The Cardinals’ rotation for 2022 is 80% set, with Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson pencilled into four out of the five slots. However, that last spot could still seemingly go in many different ways, either with internal or external options. Derrick S. Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch spoke to the team’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about the various paths they’re choosing between.

The club is apparently giving consideration to Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks, both of whom having been primarily working as relievers in recent years and are questionable fits for rotation jobs. Reyes had an excellent year out of the bullpen in 2021, eventually becoming the team’s closer. In 72 1/3 innings, he had an ERA of 3.24 with a strikeout rate of 30% and notched 29 saves. However, that also came with a walk rate of 16.4%, around twice the league average. He also comes with a lengthy injury history that has limited his contributions in his career thus far. Those 72 1/3 innings from this year are the most he’s thrown since 2016, when he threw 111 1/3 between Triple-A and the big leagues, which is the most he’s logged in a single season. That was followed by a completely lost season in 2017 and three straight years of just a few dozen each.

The situation with Hicks is somewhat comparable, as he had an excellent season in 2018, throwing 77 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 3.59 ERA. However, he was limited to 28 2/3 innings in 2019 before having to undergo Tommy John surgery, opted out of 2020 and then was limited by injuries to just 13 innings in 2021, between Triple-A and the big leagues. Expecting him to jump into a rotation job at this point seems like a tall ask, and Mozeliak admitted as much. “My guess is no better than yours or anybody else’s,” he said, in regards to what Hicks could provide in the future. “For him to go out and pitch north of 100 innings would be maybe putting him in a difficult spot.”

In addition to those two, Goold also lists Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo and Genesis Cabrera as those who are in the mix. Despite all of those candidates, the club is still looking into external options, which is understandable based on how 2021 went. Multiple injuries caused the club the struggle in the first half, leading them to make the mid-summer additions of Jon Lester, J.A. Happ and Wade LeBlanc. Although that helped stabilize the staff and get the club into the playoffs, they’re all now free agents. As Mozeliak puts it, “Last year, we thought we had nine or 10. I think you’ve got to have some protection going in regardless of what we say we’re going to get them to do… Having some additional arms is healthy.”

Goold’s report says that free agent Max Scherzer “would entertain an offer from the Cardinals”, which is notable because Scherzer was apparently unwilling to waive his no-trade clause to join them this past summer, preferring to become a member of a West Coast club. However, now that he is trying to maximize his earning potential, it makes sense that he would try to keep as many buyers at the table as possible, in order to ensure healthy bidding. Even if Scherzer is genuinely open to working in Missouri, where he was born and raised, the club may have trouble fitting him into the budget, as their 2022 payroll is currently over $142MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s around $20MM shy of 2021’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise record, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Scherzer is likely to command much more than that for an annual salary, with MLBTR recently predicting he garners a contract of $120MM over three years, an annual average value of $40MM.

A pitcher who will come much cheaper is Steven Matz, who was at the GM Meetings yesterday, according to Tim Healey of Newsday. Healey lists the Cardinals as being interested in his services, along with the Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers. MLBTR predicted Matz to land a deal of $27MM over three years, an AAV of $9MM which would certainly fit into the Cards’ payroll much more neatly than Scherzer’s. Matz had a solid year for the Blue Jays in 2021, throwing 150 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.82. He figures to be popular among teams hesitant to surrender draft picks, as he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Jays.

Cardinals Not Planning To Sell

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At 44-47, the Cardinals currently sit in fourth place, nine games behind the Brewers for the National League Central lead. But the Cardinals aren’t ready to tear it down and start shedding trade assets. It’s not at all likely that the Cardinals become sellers this July, despite their current place in the standings, per The Athletic’s Katie Woo (via Twitter). Of course, that’s not unusual for the Cardinals, one of the most stable and competitive franchises in the game.

In terms of their chances for contention in 2021, nine games isn’t an inconceivable margin to overcome, though leapfrogging the three teams ahead of them might be as much of a challenge. That said, the Cubs do seem likely to sell, and therefore slip further down the standings as we move into August and September. The Cardinals are also 8.5 games out of a wild card spot, however, so there’s no clear path to a postseason spot.

That said, there are some reinforcements on the way. Both Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty threw bullpens yesterday, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (via Twitter). Mikolas made just one start this year, but he’s been a productive member of the rotation in years past. Flaherty, of course, could be a difference-maker if he’s able to return from his torn oblique.

Jordan Hicks, however, may not return this season, notes Jones. Hicks has been out with elbow inflammation since May 2nd, and there’s still no telling when he might be ready to take the hill again. Given Hicks’ injury history, this latest chapter is particularly disheartening for the 24-year-old flamethrower.

Pitching hasn’t necessarily been the issue for the Cardinals, however. With 360 runs scored, they’ve outscored just the Mets and Pirates, and they are tied with Cleveland for 26th in the Majors with a 88 wRC+. They rank 25th with a .379 SLG and 26th with a .302 OBP. They’re putting the ball in play — 21.9 percent strikeout rate is tied for third-lowest in the Majors — but those balls are largely being turned into outs, as they’re also third-lowest by BABIP with a .272 team batting average on balls in play.

While the Cardinals are built around their pitching and defense, it’s safe to assume they expected more from the offense. They are healthy as a unit now, however, so perhaps the Cardinals expect a second half surge. Regardless, outside of a few veterans like Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Andrew Miller and Kwang Hyun Kim, most of the Cardinals’ roster is controlled beyond this season, so it’s not wholly unreasonable to avoid a sell-off, even if their playoff odds, at the moment, are a slim 1.8 percent, per Fangraphs.

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