The 2022 regular season is officially wrapped up, with the Mets beating the Nationals in the second game of a doubleheader to close out the year. 18 teams now formally turn their attention to 2023, while the postseason will get underway on Friday.
With the standings set for the league’s non-playoff teams, there’s some more clarity about next year’s amateur draft order. Unlike in previous seasons, where the draft order was fixed in the inverse of the prior year’s standings, the 2023 draft will be subject to a lottery. As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all have identical chances of landing the top selections. All 18 non-playoff teams are technically in the running for any of the top six picks, albeit with increasingly diminished odds for the clubs with better records. If two teams have the same record, the club with the worse record in the preceding season gets the higher odds.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings (aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections).
Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline and Carlos Collazo of Baseball America each relayed the odds for the first overall pick in next season’s draft.
- Nationals (55-107): 16.5%
- Athletics (60-102): 16.5%
- Pirates (62-100, 61-101 in ’21): 16.5%
- Reds (62-100, 83-79 in ’21): 13.25%
- Royals (65-97): 10%
- Tigers (66-96): 7.5%
- Rangers (68-94, 60-102 in ’21): 5.5%
- Rockies (68-94, 74-87 in ’21): 3.9%
- Marlins (69-93): 2.7%
- Angels (73-89): 1.8%
- Diamondbacks (74-88, 52-110 in ’21): 1.4%
- Cubs (74-88, 71-91 in ’21): 1.1%
- Twins (78-84, 73-89 in ’21): 0.9%
- Red Sox (78-84, 92-70 in ’21): 0.76%
- White Sox (81-81, 93-69 in ’21): 0.62%
- Giants (81-81, 107-55 in ’21): 0.48%
- Orioles (83-79): 0.36%
- Brewers (86-76): 0.23%
The date of the draft lottery has not been formally announced, but Mayo notes it’s expected to take place during the Winter Meetings. Joe Doyle of Prospects Live first reported last month that it’ll be run at the Winter Meetings on December 6.
After the first six selections are drawn, the remainder of the first round will run in inverse order of the standings among the teams not awarded a lottery pick. The Nationals will therefore pick no later than 7th, the A’s will pick no later than 8th, and so on. A team with a record outside the bottom six would only move up if drawn into the top six. The Brewers, for instance, will either win a pick between 1st and 6th or pick 18th; there is no scenario in which Milwaukee picks between 7th and 17th. If the Orioles don’t win a lottery pick, they’ll either pick 17th or 18th (only moving to 18th if Milwaukee is drawn into the top six).
While the process for the non-playoff teams is relatively straightforward, the ordering for the teams that qualify for the postseason is more complex, Mayo and Collazo report. The playoff teams will first be arranged by the round in which they’re eliminated — teams that lose in the Wild Card Round awarded higher picks than those that lose in the Division Series, teams that lose in the DS before clubs eliminated in the Championship Series, etc.
Within each group of eliminated clubs, teams are first sorted by revenue sharing status. Collazo reports that revenue sharing recipients will receive higher priority over non revenue sharing-recipients. Thus, the loser of the Rays – Guardians Wild Card series (both teams are revenue sharing recipients) would receive a higher selection than the loser of the Cardinals – Phillies series (neither team receives revenue sharing). Teams eliminated in the same round with the same revenue sharing status are then ordered by their reverse regular season win percentage.
While it won’t affect the order of the 2023 draft, the new CBA also introduced restrictions on teams qualifying for the lottery in consecutive seasons. Clubs that don’t receive revenue sharing are ineligible to earn a lottery pick in consecutive years. Teams that do receive revenue sharing aren’t permitted to receive a lottery pick for more than two straight years.
It looks as if the draft order will be settled two months from now, but there’s obviously plenty of uncertainty as to which players will be at the top of the class. Baseball America updated its preliminary top 100 draft prospects last month, slotting LSU right fielder Dylan Crews, Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander and Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez among the most talented prospects. There’ll obviously be plenty of movement once the amateur baseball circuit kicks back off next winter and spring.
Would be hilarious if this ridiculous system blew up in the league’s face with BAL winning the lottery.
Wasn’t it the MLBPA who wanted this system? I’m not sure there’s much riding on this from the league’s point of view. Maybe I’m missing something.
If so be prepared for lotto reduex behind the scenes. Prob run it as many times as it takes til cubs or Red Sox go 1/2.
I’m sure baseball can live with that.
The Angels have been pretty bad for a decade, the Angels best pick was 9th. Teams that try deserve a shot at a top five pick.
If the Angels drafted another Mike Trout it wouldn’t mean a dam thing in their success. That organization is horrible. Players join that team never to be heard from again.
That horrible organization has never lost more than 95 games. Your team can’t say that.
My team is the Braves… have been for over 40 years. And to point to a dubious stat of never having lost more than 95 games in a season is laughable. Is that their marketing hook? “Come out and see the Angels…a team that has never lost more than 95 games in a season…”
When is the last time the Braves have had the best record in baseball? After a World Series win, six division championships and the best record in baseball, the Angels lost six good to great starting pitchers to basically career ending injuries in a span of 18 months. Since they pick late every year, they couldn’t recover. They still only have had one pick inside the top ten this century. But you don’t know a damn thing about this team
Come on halo fan not losing more than 95 games is not something to brag about. You should be more concerned that the halos have 2 of the best players in baseball and couldn’t have a record above .500. So even resigning Ohtani for over $300 million next year they still are not a playoff team. Now that is concerning.
If that’s all you can come up with lol, then yea Angel’s are straight cheeks.
That part
Since this is about the Angels being a horrible organization, it is. Never tanking is something to be proud about. Unlike the Braves that lost 90 or more games three years in a row. The Angels have not lost more than 90 games this century. The haven’t picked better than 9th this century.
The Angels have never lost more than 95 games. The Angels are only team to never lose 100 games. That alone removes them from the “horrible” organization tag.
If that’s all I can come up with? Someone comes up with data supporting they are a horrible organization and I easily disprove that claim.
This century the Angels have a World Series title, six division titles, once had the best record in baseball, then immediately lost six good starting pitchers, their entire rotation, in 18 months and STILL have never picked higher than 9th.
It’s ABSURD to call them a horrible organization.
The Angels are just now recovering from having low draft picks and losing their entire starting rotation.
Bro you have two of the greatest players on the planet and can’t win squat. Since 2007 they have had four different gm’s… They signed Pujols and Josh Hamilton to horrible, ill advised contracts on the order from the owner. Their defense and pitching stinks. They can’t draft. Draft positioning counts a lot less than scouting. They hardly ever make the playoffs.The Braves have fuel their juggernaut through later round picks like Riley (41st oick)…Harris (3rd round)…Strider (3rd round)… Vaughn Grissom (11th round)… Acuna and Albies international free agents. That’s how you build success my friend. Until that idiot Moreno sells the team, they will continually suck..
These two players have played ZERO full seasons together.
The closest was this year when Trout played 119 games. Maybe you count 2018 when Ohtani had an offensive WAR of 1.3 and pitched 50 innings.
People who continue to make that claim know nothing about the Angels. A lot of people know NOTHING about the Angels.
Bro the WORLD knows nothing about the Angels because it’s a losing franchise that’s obscure and irrelevant. Like I said, players go there never to be heard from again. And the world could care less. I think if the Angels team plane crashed, it might make it to the third story on espn…
Joey, you are right. People know nothing about the Angels, yet they still blow hot air and pretend they do.
It is typical message board behavior. It’s why people with class don’t make ignorant, disparaging comments on a message board. There are not a lot of classy people on message boards.
Sorry if I hurt your feelings. It was not my intent. I just feel that with the payroll and players on the team and not win, then the problem lies elsewhere. Namely the owner. The fanbase should somehow force the owner to sell…hire the right people who have a record of success and go from there.
I took offense to a horrible organization. Teams that try are not horrible organizations.
And it’s too bad that after the 2014 season, when they had the best record in baseball, the Angels had six good starting pitchers go down with basically career ending injuries.
They are just now recovering, And the fact that they only have had one pick inside the top ten (9th in 2021) this century, didn’t help.
Could they have done a better job? Of course.
The Angels are more of a dumpster fire than the Pirates, and that says a whole lot.
Horrible organization means they can’t scout or develop players. The Angels take it a step further. The free agents they sign get worse after getting there.
The fact that they have a high payroll makes it worse, not better. They have a losing formula and they don’t change it. They do the same thing every year and keep losing. Horrible organization.
How many teams have the same pitchers they did in 2014? If they weren’t a horrible organization, they would have scouted and developed/signed plenty of decent pitchers since then.
Angels fans were convinced they drafted Trout v2 in Brandon Marsh…looooool
Will there be a “pick clock”?
I think the lottery is fun and exciting.
Should be able to trade draft picks like other sports. Imagine a team needing immediate help with a weak farm system being able to trade away a draft pick to get what they need immediately and a rebuilding team getting a extra pick
There are limited situations where you can trade draft picks, but I think they can only be the ones in competitive balance rounds and/or compensatory picks. I don’t think MLB wants to follow the NFL and NBA models here.
I think it is only the competitive balance picks and they can be traded only once.
Why would they not want to follow their models?Their drafts are 100% more exciting. Give me one good reason a team shouldn’t be able to mortgage their future or build their future if they think it’s the right move?
The MLB draft will never be anywhere near as exciting as the NFL/NBA Drafts because for the most part the majority of people watching the draft would have no clue who most of the players being drafted are. NCAA and H.S. Baseball players don’t have anywhere near the exposure of NCAA football and basketball players and they never will. Unfortunately the MLB draft is what it is and will never become an entertaining event like the NFL/NBA drafts.
As far as trading for picks, it’s hard to mortgage the future for a pick to get a guy who will help you immediately when there have only been a handful of guys in history to go straight to the pros without any minor league seasoning. I love that baseball is a game that is played over the long haul. We live in an age where everybody wants instant gratification on most things and with baseball that just doesn’t happen. Baseball is a long term investment of your time with lots of ups and downs along the ride to watch your team go from laughing stocks to perennial playoff contenders. Teams go from worst to first in football often and that rarely ever happens in baseball. I’m old school but I love watching a team go from nothing to being built up into a winning organization. It makes winning that much sweeter when it finally starts to happen.
The MLB draft is unglamorous for the most part. Your drafting for future benefits… not the present. Your also drafting players no one has heard of or most likely never even watched. You draft an 18 year old with the hopes that in maybe 3 or 4 years can make a difference on your team. Conversely, with the NFL and NBA, your drafting for immediate impact from a franchise changing player…Game changer…Difference maker. That’s why it’s much more popular.
This is good for baseball to force garbage teams to strive to be better because they may end up with a lesser pick than expected.
Also, they need to make these picks tradeable. Every other sports league does it and this is overdue. Let teams like the Yankees over commit and send out pick after pick to lesser teams.
Except smartly run teams will trade for picks (Anthopolis did that basically when he ran the Jays by trading for a pending free agent, then MLB changed the rules).
I fully expect if picks could be traded that the Rays would trade often for them. The main reason we don’t see that more often is teams have restrictions on the few picks they can trade for.
There is a limit on roster spots in any given organization. It’s not like the Rays will pick a hundred times and the Yankees once.
I didn’t even know this existed. Better just give up baseball. My accumen is dated.
Pirates in top 3 again! 6 years straight and counting! Sheesh
Bucs drafted 10th in 2018 so…
I don’t think the Bucs or the fans knew that.
Nah, it’s just that Bucs fan. He still lives in ’81, thinks bunting is important and that throwing 89 mph is top of the radar gun stuff.
I have a feeling Travis Swaggerty is gonna make some people know about that next season. Nothing really flashy or explosive about his game or tools but just all around solid player.
I wish they did scratch off draft picks alongside the lottery.
Cheapskate owners will have other excuses to be cheapskate owners. Lottery for the draft ain’t gonna change that.
lol baseball and their insistence to not have salary caps.
It’s ridiculous at this point
The NFL doesn’t seem to really have one, either. Their “cap” is at an exorbitant level and rises every year. There are also seemingly endless loopholes allowing teams to sign players despite having no cap space.
Just lose baby!
I still think a better system would be to invert the standings. Give the teams with the best records that missed the playoffs the best shot at #1. I just don’t understand rewarding losing in sports. Reward the teams that just came up short. The worst teams are not going to be good for 3 years anyway, so there is really no difference between picking 1st and 16th. Players still have to be developed and history has shown that you can find just as good a player in the middle of the first. as at the top.
You are widening the gap between the haves and have nots. Instead of Milwaukee getting a really good pick to catch up St. Louis, they are basically going to get to pick maybe 3-4 slots ahead of the Cardinals. Yes, the gap between last place and second place will shorten since the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates can now in theory catch the Brewers. But the Cardinals gap is wider. Playoff money will only increase the payroll gaps as well. But with an inversion, teams will want every win and potentially spend more money on payroll. I don’t get how the players wouldn’t love this idea.
Every game would count for every as well. How many games in August and September between teams that were out of it were borderline unwatchable because they were meaningless? It’s not as noticeable when there are still playoff races to decide, but this year, there really were no races. Not good ones anyway. Even the Braves/Mets was not as good since both teams were still guaranteed to make the playoffs. But if you had a Red Sox/Orioles series or a White Sox/Twins series to determine top 5 picks, it would have held a lot more interest to fans of ALL teams.
In baseball, it makes a little less sense because the draftees are usually a couple years away at least. But in football and basketball, the 1st pick in the draft should go to the team closest to the playoffs. That way the fans can watch the best rookies in the postseason instead of waiting 3 years before their teams can build up again. I just hate the idea of giving the second best prize in the sport to the worst team. It just makes no logical sense.
So amidst a playoff race, you’re talking about having a playoffs for the worst teams to determine a draft order for guys that won’t sniff the big leagues in 4-5 years, by which most currently on the team won’t be there? Even Newt Rockne couldn’t give a pep talk to encourage either of those teams to care, nevertheless paying fans of each that have already turned their attention to Week 1 or Week 2 of the NFL. That ain’t it.
Re: Braves/Mets series – sure, both were going to the playoffs, but it was a playoff atmosphere for their last series, that pretty much determined the winner, with the reigning champs facing off vs. NYM staff finally healthy (deGrom, Scherzer). This is what Cohen was paying for – except the results. This was the closest race in years – and while I can’t speak on other fans, that series will only make the playoffs better as a proper lead-in.
No, not a playoff for the best pick. The final two months of the season would be the playoffs for those teams. Because believe it or not, there are fans of all 18 of those teams that were not involved in playoff races. And this would give them something to do.
I am a Rockies fan, baseball season for me is over. I have no intention of watching the postseason and rooting for teams that I rooted against during the regular season. I just don’t care who wins if my team doesn’t. And I don’t believe I am the only one that feels that way. I may casually catch a game or two when there is nothing else on, but for me I am just finding other things to occupy my time until Spring Training starts.
PS – it is Knute Rockne.
I’m sorry for your Rockies, but you have a terrible FO that doesn’t care about the reg season, so to reward them with more games is a waste of everyone’s time, even the Coors Field event staff that have already booked their October vacation, knowing they won’t be working.
Seriously though, you want teams closest to the playoffs to get “the best” rookies so they can play in the playoffs in the year they’re chosen? So many questions. “The best” prospects is more relative in baseball than in NBA/NFL where development isn’t nearly as needed. Imagine being a CWS star hitting with aluminum bats, then get drafted in July and then be counted on to play the most meaningful games for their new employer in October – a time that wouldn’t have been playing. Baseball is already hard, but imagine failing on that grand a stage. No way would I want my team to call up a top draft pick to represent the team. I’m all for creating excitement in the game, but not this way – you’re setting people up for disaster and not having the playoffs be a representation of the franchise’s best players. Your proposition would turn draft picks into mercenaries and not as talented people that need some refinement. Teams don’t emphasize development. Thankfully, ATL does an above-average job at not only ID-ing talent, but working with them then giving them support to excel and benefit from that patience.
Don’t be sorry for my team. I enjoyed watching every game and really enjoyed watching the Rockies beat the Dodgers more times than any other team this season.
Plus, you have totally missed my point. I am not talking about EXTRA games for teams out of the playoffs. I am talking about making all of their regular season games count.
I like the new lottery system. At first I was confused when I read the paragraph that begins, “After the first six selections are drawn.” As I was reading I didn’t know the Brewers where the best non-playoff team therefore if they don’t make it into the top 6 they have the 18th pick locked. As Red Sox fan, what is relevant is that if a team jumps them they will drop down a spot. In theory the Red Sox can pick 1-6 or 14-18 (although statistically unlikely).
I think that would be funny if the Red Sox had a horrible season and end up picking 18th. You just got me interested in the draft lottery.
Teams that don’t tank deserve a shot at a top three pick.
I like this lottery. The Red Sox, with their attempt to win, deserve a shot at a top three pick, and if they pick 18th, so be it.
I agree. The math at getting a top 6 is way above my pay grade to figure out, but I would guess the Red Sox have at least 5% chance of picking top 6. They should move the draft lottery to sometime in the playoffs as baseball is still at the forefront of my mind. In December, I am a lot less focused on Baseball.
It extends the season, then. It should probably be done in January. November and December, there’s a bunch of player movement. Have the draft lottery in January. Spring training starts in February. Stay in the news.
Moving the draft to the all-star break seems counter-productive as well. It was fine where it was. The fans of the bad teams may start tuning out after 2 months, but then the draft on June 5th and they’re back.
I’d revamp this immediately to be if your over the luxury tax you pick at the end of the draft ranking down from highest over to lowest. Then I’d put a minimum club payroll at $100MM and if you under that then you don’t qualify for the lottery and will be immediately slotted after the other teams in the lottery. That way you don’t get an advantage to tanking or trying to get better through free agency and if your a mid market team your not penalized for not being able to afford to compete with NYY, NYM or LAD etc.
If teams try, they shouldn’t be penalized, and if teams stink, they shouldn’t be forced to overpay their players.
I think this is fair.
lol so many teams are going to be mad
There are unanswered questions about this new system.
One, how does the qualifying offer affect this system? If one of the 16 teams signs a player who received a QO does that team lose their first round pick?
Two, slot money. If a team with a low percentage ends up with a top 6 pick do they get that slot money for the whole draft or just that pick? Many teams like to spread their draft pool money around and pick lower ranked players early so they have more money later. Forcing teams to spend that money or lose it could be an idea.
3, why wait until December to decide this lottery? This should be done immediately after the World Series as it could have the unintended consequence of hampering free agency. Teams with a lower percentage chance might want to wait and see if they get a top 6 pick thereby passing on players with a QO who might cost them said pick.
I hope some of the low percentage teams end up with a top 6 pick, just for the drama and crying. Go Giants!
Teams don’t lose their 1st pick for signing a QO free agent. If a team has multiple 1st round picks, they may be forced to forfeit the later one.
I like the idea of a lottery system but seems like they went with one way to complex than is needed. Too many teams involved in it.
First overall last year bub