Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.
Headlines
- Brooks Robinson Passes Away
- Reds’ Matt McLain Shut Down For Remainder Of 2023 Season
- Padres Plan To Reduce Payroll To Around $200MM; Front Office Changes Possible
- Marlins Place Eury Perez On 15-Day Injured List, Select Jeff Lindgren
- Sandy Alcantara Shut Down For Rest Of 2023 Season
- Brandon Lowe To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Kneecap Fracture
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Mets fans are hilarious. Uh, so, think we can get Devers for Baty and Dom Smith, despite the fact that Dom Smith can’t even steal LH DH AB’s from Dan Vogelbach?
And Ohtani for Alvarez and Allan?!? LOLMETS
How much trade value does 1 year of a guy really have?
More than you would probably realize. It allows you to immediately start working on a new contract so you don’t have to outbid other teams. In the case of either Ohtani or Devers, they are both guys you would extend.
Being able to immediately work on a new contract has no value. And certainly isn’t worth giving up any relevant prospects.
And trading for them doesn’t mean they will sign an extension. Teams trade for players and then don’t extend them all the time. Darvish, Machado, Heyward, Chapman, Marte, Lester, etc.
May, Lux, and Bellinger for Ohtani??????? No way…Throw in Cat Man and a catching prospect and we got a deal.
Im not sure why Anthony thinks that the Angels would accept that offer — there’s literally -no- place on the roster for Bellinger, plus he’s not an upgrade to anyone in the outfield.
That’s why I had to mention it. I think he was way off on that one…Maybe he’ll elaborate later on..
Yeah I’m not seeing how even experts are missing that trading for ohtani is essentially trading for two top tier players. Even for one year, it would take more than May and lux and an albatross who will get non tendered.
I’m a met fan and idk what some fans are thinking w these offers. For ohtani at the very least you’d need two top 100, so maybe Alvarez and Ramirez, and then another soon to be top 100, like a Tidwell.. then you prob need a high ceiling guy, maybe a Joel Diaz type
They’ll want 3-4 quality prospects and they can get it
We are just dealing with a lot of people who don’t know Baseball is all. Just super casual fans or fans with messy and ill conceived knowledge of the game. Not easy to evaluate talent. You have to have been around the game since you were teething…And have had the good fortune of wise elders whom have bestowed such wisdom upon you..
Plus, Adell has LF on lock down baby!
Adell has the post-game buffet on lock down. That’s about it.
It would be fascinating to see what one year of Ohtani would get on the open market. I’m not sure it’s as much as Angel fans think but certainly more then the ridiculous Mets offer.
I don’t see Dipoto spending big for a 2B/FA(from the SS stock). Especially if it’s gonna cost $20M- 25- 30m/yr.
Atlanta won’t sign DeGrom. AA doesn’t like FA inefficiency.
Is there a hard cutoff date for players to opt out or can they watch how the off-season market develops before making a decision?
Idiotic to say Angels would take May, Lux and Bellinger for Ohtani, who is the Unicorn. May – still recovering from TJ surgery. Lux – still hasn’t proven he’s an everyday player. Bellinger – still loaded, just not with talent anymore.
I think you’re underrating Lux (and May to a lesser extent). Lux is an above-average defensive second baseman who’s coming off a .276/.346/.399 season. He’s already an above-average everyday player, controllable for four more years and could very plausibly get better as a former top 5 overall prospect.
May’s a bit risky, sure, but he looked like a budding ace before the surgery and came back sitting 98+ again. He’s controllable for three more seasons and not making much early in arbitration because of the surgery.
Bellinger is a non-factor there, I agree. But I can’t see the Dodgers offering both Lux and May for one year of control over any player, even arguably the best player in the sport.
So Lux is what Soto could be, why would the Angels want Lux again?
Lux = Soto
Why would they take on the risk of May?
Wrong Anthony
He’ll be a Dodger in 2024.
Do people in this comment section just not realize that Shohei Ohtani is a rental? His trade value is limited because of that.
And don’t try it with “ThE dOdGeRs CoUlD sIgN him !” They can do that without trading for him.
How much trade value does Ohtani have a rental? Well look at the Betts trade and add at least one high end prospect and another highly regarded prospect since you basically trading for an (and I hate to use this term) All-Star caliber DH and an All-Star caliber pitcher. So maybe some people on here are overvaluing Ohtani but I think you’re undervaluing him. Ohtani will empty the upper tier of a farm system. It would be Very similar to what the padres gave up for Soto… not to mention the cost “savings” having that bat for 15 million and that arm for 15 million.
Won’t be anything like the Soto return. Padres got potentially 3 playoff runs with Soto on the roster. Team that trades for Ohtani gets 1.
It would absolutely be close to it because it’s the equivalent of getting two star players holding down one roster spot. You are greatly under valuing Ohtani.
The angels did a horrible job utilizing Ohtani but you take a deep team like the Dodgers and you hand them basically another roster spot? His value is tremendous. As a player, he is more valuable than Betts or even Trout because not only does he hit and pitch but he gives you an extra roster spot and that is important in so many ways, not just being able to hold onto a situational hitter/pinch runner/defensive replacement, what ever you may need but it’s an additional 40 man slot.
So yeah, he won’t get a Soto package but it won’t be far off and it will be more than the Red Sox got for Betts which was a large haul and also unloaded Price.
Agreed… it’s closer to when the dodgers traded for scherzer and Turner bc you’re getting two top players basically… even for a year, I keep saying it, it’ll take two top 100 prospects plus
Look at this way. What will be Ohtani’s WAR monetary value for 2023 minus his salary? One WAR has averaged about $8 million on the free agent market. If you think Shohei will have a monster year including postseason, say 11 WAR, then his trade value is 11*$8MM – $30 MM salary = 58.
Now let’s calculate Soto’s trade value. Let’s say he will be 7 WAR per year over the 2+ years and he makes about $60 million plus the Padres make the postseason each year and Soto averages another win. That’s (7*8*2.3)+(1*8*3)-60= 92.
Soto’s trade value was at least 50% higher.
That’s not how all teams will calculate trade value though, and demand will drive up the price as always
It’s much closer to the Dodger nats trade for 1/2 year of scherzer and 1.5 years of Turner, and that brought two top 100 (gray and Ruiz) plus
And soto’s return understandably brought back higher rated prospects bc of the 2.5 years of time left, so no, it won’t be that high, but it’s trading for two players and has to be viewed as such… and ohtani’s war as a hitter is only lower bc he doesn’t play the field… he’s not that far off from soto’s offensive value at this current point in time
At least we don’t have to hear “Why don’t pitchers throw meatballs down the middle of the plate to Judge?” anymore.