The Mariners aren’t going to extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Morosi of MLB Network had earlier reported that Haniger was unlikely to get a QO.
Haniger has been an interesting borderline QO candidate since he’s been a consistently excellent hitter for years but has struggled to stay healthy for extended stretches. Since coming over from the Diamondbacks in a trade prior to the 2017 season, Haniger has played in five seasons for the Mariners, putting up a wRC+ above 100 in each of them.
He was relatively healthy in 2017, getting into 96 games that year, followed by 157 in 2018. However, he was limited to just 63 contests in 2019 and then missed the 2020 campaign entirely. In 2021, he had a tremendous return, getting into 157 games, hitting 39 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .253/.318/.485 and a 121 wRC+. Unfortunately, the injury bug came for him again in 2022, with Haniger making multiple trips to the IL due to ankle sprains. He was still good when on the field, as he hit .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he did that in only 57 games on the year.
That is the story of Haniger at this point. He’s always a good producer when he steps up to the plate, it’s just hard to know how often he’ll be doing it. Extending the qualifying offer would come with risk, since those injuries have helped suppress his arbitration earnings. Haniger gradually pushed his salary up throughout the arb process, getting to $7.75MM here in 2022. If he suddenly had the chance to play for $19.65MM, it would likely be difficult for him to turn it down.
The Mariners are currently projected by Roster Resource to have a 2023 payroll of $132MM. Suddenly adding that $19.65MM figure into the mix would get them pretty close to their franchise record of $158MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Haniger could certainly be worth that investment but another injury-marred campaign could hamper the team’s ability to continue competing going forward.
It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet that it seems the Mariners have decided not to make. That means Haniger will now head to the open market to see how other teams value him. Since Haniger’s future contributions are difficult to gauge, it’s possible there will be wide variance in how different teams evaluate him. However, for teams looking to steer clear of QO’d free agents in order to avoid forfeiting draft picks, Haniger could certainly pique their interest.
He will be one of the more interesting names available in the corner outfield market this winter. Aaron Judge is the obvious headliner but the next tier with feature Haniger alongside names like Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.
Stupid move, Jerry. Mitch is one of the hearts and souls of this team.
Maybe it means they know his market value is much lower…
Wrong
With Mitch’s injuries no one can justify paying him $19.5M a year.
Silver slugger for MASH unit
Often injured?I see the wsox in his future.
Angels. They invented the market in signing oft injured/over 30/paying for previous accomplishments.
…….but if they offer him the $19.5, he takes it and they have a potential middle of the order piece. Now, they don’t control him and he could easily replace Brantley in Houston or be a nice option for the Rangers to take from a division foe. If the Rangers give him 2/$40 and he beats the snot out of the Mariners and puts up his healthy numbers will anyone still think he wasn’t worth the QO?
And they max out their budget (or at least get to the all-time high payroll). That’s not their priority.
On a real contender he wouldn’t be a middle-order bat, and if Texas was weird enough to sign him to 2/40…good for Mitch! But the Rangers certainly aren’t a Mitch Haniger away from getting past Seattle or Houston.
There’s still a real possibility he returns to Seattle. Mariner fans shouldn’t be taking this so seriously, regardless.
Depends how they spend the money they don’t pay him
@wampum
And if he spends the year on the IL, will there be anyone who thinks that declining to offer the QO was the wrong move? We can play the hypotheticals all day. What can’t be ignored is the risk!
@stevil – I’m not sure anyone is going to pass the Astros in the West for the next couple of years. There’s potential beyond that, but right now it’s hard to imagine. That staff, their budget, and what they field is hard to beat. Seattle right now has the best shot.
Not issuing a QO isn’t the same thing as not going to re-sign him.
True, but it was downright weird to see the Yankees offer Rizzo a QO after he put up his third consecutive 2 WAR season with declining defense. His collapse year is coming and he’s not really a 1Bman any more, in fact he was about the worst in MLB at the bag.
Yuli Gurriel was much worse than Rizzo on defense.
You can’t give 20 million to a guy who can’t stay healthy. Yes he’s very good but when the owner asks why hes paying 20 million for 85 games its hard to make up a good excuse.
He’s not really that good, except for one year. That’s the only year he’s been worth $20m. This was a super easy call.
That’s not true… both his full seasons were very good, plus his first season getting regular playing time in Seattle. He’s often injured (like a lot of overrated players people seem to be willing to overlook that fact for), but when healthy, he’s really valuable. Career WRC+ of 122 shows that. Since he deals with injuries often, I agree it’s an easy call, but if he’s healthy he’ll be a big asset for a team.
Actually its a very smart move by Jerry. Haniger would almost certainly accept a $19 million dollar payday rather than test the market after the dismal season he had. The only way he gets $19 million in free agency is if it’s broken up over a couple of years.
Well, it’s been a good ride for Mitch.
I remember when he came up, somebody asked Dipoto if he had a quick comment about the new crop of players, and he answered,
“Yeah. Mitch Haniger.”
He clearly liked Mitch, and it sure paid off.
Also, most of the injuries Mitch has had were just plain bad luck, freaky bouces, stuff like that.
He has been a mighty good outfielder, fine hitter when healthy, and he is not necessarily done yet either.
It doesnt mean they cant resign him to a new contract, but adding a QO to Mitch, while would net us a pick, would hinder his market for the same reason. No one is going to wanna forfeit a pick on him.
On top of 20mil is a little steep for the injury history. If hes willing to come back at a more fair deal and play out a more healthy year and maybe look at a trade market, im down.
Lots of times, with a good player like Haniger, a new contract is reached with maybe a lower price for the team but with some incentives, which overall protects both the team and the player.
This news today does not mean the player is finished, but just makes more sense probably in the long run.
Hanniger isn’t worth QO money. This can be spent upgrading holes on the roster instead. I don’t see hanniger toping 8-9 mil on an aav on the open market if that..
He killed us so many times. really good player but the injuries mounted and took their toll.
Be interesting to see where he signs.
He’d just take the QO and wont get signed attached to it. No way he gets that. I can’t imagine someone giving him more than 2/25 and suspect he’ll actually get someone with a lower AAV with escalators and maybe an option based on playing time.
I hope he’s just re-signed to a lower AAV deal. I think he’s more valuable to the Mariners than he would be to any other contender.
Why? Corner outfielders who can hit are a dime a dozen., especially right handed ones. Mariners not in “sign and flip” mode anymore. They need production that lasts all year.
Because there are no better internal options in the organization and given the likely prices of the top corner OF FA, Haniger might be the best value (Judge is almost certain to be impossible for the M’s, Benintendi will be overpaid, Nimmo will probably want to play CF and make near or over $100M, etc). Given all this, retaining a clubhouse leader with a near-elite arm by statcast measurements should be considered. It would be bad business to write him off before free agency even opens.
It seems you’re referring to his injury history with that last line, so it’s important to remember something like 57% of his IL time has to do with the ruptured testicle and setback from that. He’s still an injury risk, just less of one from my POV than others. I would rather gamble on a healthy 2021-type season from Haniger than sign Gallo, Pham, Brantley, Myers, Pollock, or anyone else from the same tier of FAs as him… except maybe Profar but he has iffy advanced metrics.
This absolutely does not mean he won’t be back. I am sure Seattle is his first preference and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Seattle offers a 2 year contract with a club option for 3rd year at a total cost of 32mil or so and he takes it.
This could be a player that the Reds take a look at.
Was thinking that myself until I remember Reds are looking for pennies between the couch cushions and were close to leading the world in players on the IL this year.
Not sure how this will work out for the M’s, but this is good news for Haniger. He’s an intriguing player that a lot of teams will have more interest in without the draft pick loss attached. I could see a contract like Rod0n signed last season, Not those dollars, but maybe a 2 year deal with an opt-out vesting on games played.
Doesn’t mean he won’t be back.
Who in the right mind would?
Every team could use him if the price is right.
But I mean who would extend a QO to him?
Good player. Hope the Stros take a crack at him.
Nor should they. Haniger can’t be counted on for anything. Not worth anything near $20 mil.
I expect him to sign with Dodgers or Giants and to be good. He is classic high risk high reward.
I’d like to see the Yankees sign him and convert him to a first baseman. They need a guy who can hit .280 with lots of homers and rbi. He could be that guy.
He’s quite a good outfielder. You don’t want to convert him.
You’re right. Just a thought.
He’s a good OF with an elite arm who won’t hit .280.
Wow, 1 year removed from 30hr’s and 100 rbi’s
Even then he was only a 3 win player, which is worth less than $20m.
Also available as FA, Adam Duvall who in 2021: 38 HR, 113 RBI (but also 102 OPS+). And he’s a GG candidate as COF…
Smart move. Guy hasn’t had a high OBP the last couple years and had 1.3 WAR last year. Not getting any younger either.
2 years 16 mil.
RedSox will definitely be interested – exactly what they need, a RH corner OF with power.
to join the $19mil they are paying James Paxton on the IL
Didn’t he opt out? Andi doubt they sign this guy to much if it happens…
Mitch Haniger = Franklin Gutierrez
Not even close. Hanny has had some freak injuries, Death to flying things had/has Ankylosing Spondylosis….a rare inflammatory disease. Hanny can still play, Gutierrez had to retire due to it.
Ain’t that the same thing Mick Mars, formerly of Motley Crue, has?
Without the QO he might make a good Profar replacement in San Diego. Padres need to add some slug and he should be cheaper than Profar.
I’d imagine he’ll be back. 2/22 or something.
Thank god. Def not worth the price. Hopefully they bring him back and let him increase his value a little.
This is not good. He’s needed in the clubhouse
Why give him the QO when you can get him for 3/19 all day.
I wonder if he’ll wind up as the dh v LHP for the Mets? Or are they figuring on Vientos for that job, and as their 5th or 6th OFer?
Why would he accept a platoon role?
Give him a job and a nice porch in LF and he’ll be fine. Hope he comes back to Seattle.
I read that he has made $14M in the MLB total. So I am thinking $14M a year for 2 years…options for everyone, of course. But probably elsewhere, not in Seattle.
414M
He’s not worth $19 mill. I’d maybe pay $12 mill for a 1 year deal. He’s not even a high reward type any more. 3 WAR might be his ceiling but he’s more likely to end up in the 1-2 WAR range. I wouldn’t mind having him back in Seattle though. He was the only legit corner outfielder we had in 2022 and the other guys don’t even show hints of getting better.
@Meklas0 3 WAR from Haniger would be a gift. I don’t think he’s getting $12m–not as a fading DH type who hits LHP better than RHP. I wonder, though. The NYY or similar team might get creative and rather than offer the QO to Rizzo, see if they can’t get Haniger for 1B for 1/5m.
I predict 3/21 with escalators for games played to his home town Giants.
If he goes for somewhere in the 10-12 mil/yr range. I could see Cle getting into that mix if it is only a 1-3 year contract. They desperately need power and if he stays on the field, it would instantly upgrade that lineup at 1B/DH combo with Naylor.
Kwan, Rosario, Ramirez, Naylor, Haniger, Gimenez would be a very nice first 6.
I would love them to sign him short term and get a catcher, he would add some insurance if Oscar Gonzalez, kwan or Brennan take a step back
It could be they are counting on Kyle Lewis being fully recovered in the Spring. The money they save on Mitch gives Dipoto the flexibility to make a run at a few free agents that are healthy. The M’s are close but not likely to catch the Astros unless they bring in Aaron Judge and more.
This feels like the Renfroe issue. No one wanted to trade for Renfroe, but he was still a legit 2-3 WAR player.
I’d have declined the QO as well, but I am a little surprised that Seattle couldn’t come to a deal prior to letting him go. I’d have to peek at his medicals, but I’d be happy with the RS offering him $20M/2 with the requisite options.
The move hurts but imo it is the right one. Mariners line up was decent last year but really only julio is a lock to be great while Raleigh and France are solid but could regress to more slightly above average. That really means the mariners need to sign a big bat and while haniger still can be good he just misses too many games and he also might enter an age where he isn’t even that good when he is healthy so really it is smart to save that money and put it on a big bat.
I’ve seen it suggested that the M’s may have designated Sadler so as to save space on the 40 man for the rule 5 draft. Could the non QO to Haniger basically be the same thing? I hope so. I think non QO is most prudent but he will be missed in clubhouse and by fans if he doesn’t return