TODAY: Verlander and the Mets spoke together in a Zoom meeting last week, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.
NOVEMBER 19: The Mets are hopeful of re-signing Jacob deGrom, but if they fail in that pursuit, reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander has emerged as a “prominent possibility” for the team, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Puma cites a source that confirms the Mets are indeed considering the former Astros ace.
deGrom is still every chance to stay in New York of course, and the Mets already believe they are his preferred team, but it certainly shows the Mets’ intention to again be active at the top of the starting pitching market, be that deGrom or not.
Verlander, 39, showed no signs of age in 2022, making one of the more remarkable returns from Tommy John surgery to toss 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball for Houston, win the Cy Young award and take home a World Series ring. Though his strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since joining Houston (down to 27.85), his fastball velocity remained in tact (and actually improved on his last full season), and he accounted for the dip in strikeouts by posting the equal-best walk rate of his lengthy career (4.4%).
It’s a stunning turnaround for a pitcher that threw just six innings between 2020-21, and sets himself up nicely to add to his already illustrious career. He’s already got three Cy Young awards, one MVP, two World Series titles and is now 56 wins away from the 300-win milestone. That last one may seem like a stretch, but Verlander has averaged 18.33 wins a season over his last three full seasons, so it’s certainly not out of the question if he bags a three-year deal. It’s likely Verlander will seek deals from teams that give him the best chance to win, and a return to the Astros remains a strong possibility, while teams such as the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies could join the Mets in the race for his signature.
It speaks to the quality of Verlander’s output even as he’s aged that MLBTR recently predicted he’d take home a three-year, $120MM deal, even though he’ll turn 40 in February. While the performance remains elite, the thought of paying a pitcher $40MM into his age-42 season must give some owner’s pause though. Instead, perhaps the Mets might bump up Verlander’s AAV beyond the $43.3MM record that Max Scherzer takes home, and keep it to a more manageable two-year deal.
In any event, it shows the Mets are set to be aggressive in adding a frontline starter to partner Scherzer in 2023. Of course, deGrom and Verlander aren’t the only options either, and the Mets could be in on Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga as well to bolster their light rotation stocks. Currently Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are slated to start 2023, while David Peterson and Tylor Megill could also have roles at the back of the rotation, depending on how New York’s off-season unfolds.
Wow. As a Met fan I’m floored that I’m reading this
Which of the two would you rather have as a Mets fan?
Lmao, yeah go get Verlander with your big wallet Cohen, cause if you do make it to the world seires he will give you two starts there of 5+ ERA… burn your money
I think Verlander pretty much put that rep to bed this year when he won Game 5 of the World Series. He held the Phillies to one run through five innings after yielding a first-inning home run to Schwarber.
.
To be fair it wasn’t very clean innings. The Phillies had many scoring chances, but were completely out of gas. Verlander didn’t look great.
Just looked at Verlander’s pitching logs for that game 5 and it looks like VonPurp could be right. Verlander allowed 8 base runners during those 5 innings. Not really that impressive.
His career ERA in the world series is over 5?
1-6 with a 5.43 ERA? Yeah he put it to bed alright when he won one game and there was traffic thw whole time? Great regular season starter, and till the ALCS
On the other hand, four of those baserunners got on with walks and only four with hits, two of them singles. It’s not like he was getting pummeled. And three of the four walks were to Schwarber and Harper, so you could call them judiciously cautious.
yeah…because he pitches plenty of innings as their ace….meaning by the time they are in the WS it has been a long road.
@SalaryCapMyth At the same time, there’s no compelling reason to believe Verlander, who in other high leverage situations puts up results consistent w his career numbers, has been anything other than unlucky in this very small sample size of World Series starts.
I have had the crazy feeling the Mets just might go after both.
Verlander easy, seems to be performing around the same level and way less of an injury risk, despite the age difference.
He just missed two plus seasons.
Verlander just missed 2 years with injury.
He has a brand new elbow. He’s good to go.
@case AND he just had two years with a great deal of rest, compared to throwing in games.
Since the start of the 2021 season, deGrom has missed 16 days with a back injury, 78 days with an arm injury, and 118 days with a shoulder injury.
In the same time frame, Verlander has missed 186 days to an elbow injury with TJ surgery and 18 days with a calf injury. Since the surgery, he missed only the 18 days with the calf injury this year. Jacob missed 118 days this year.
Verlander got hurt in his first start of 2020 on July 24th and came back to start the 2022 season. He missed substantially LESS than 2 full seasons. If you wonder why people rarely pay attention to you, its serious factual mistakes like that.
I have the Mets signing Jacob deGrom AND Justin Verlander in this year’s MLBTR FA contest. deGrom was the easier pick and everything I’ve read indicates his preference is to remain a Met. Verlander is a hunch, one based partially on geography. He recently sold his Beverly Hills mansion and bought an estate in Jupiter, FL. which is about a 35 minute drive from the Mets spring training site in Port St. Lucie. Verlander and wife Kate Upton have a young daughter who just turned 4 earlier this month.
Verlander is a Virginia native and I believe he would prefer finishing his illustrious career with an East Coast World Series contender. Why not the Mets? With the re-signing of deGrom, the addition of Verlander and Max Scherzer already on board, the Mets would boast an historic rotation of future HOF aces. That alone might win bragging rights in the Big Apple, to say nothing of the NL and MLB.
A historic rotation of HOF aces? The Braves may have beat you to the bunch (yet again) on that with Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz.
That, but also that while DeGrom is truly special, nothing suggests he will be around long enough to make the HOF
Seaver, Koosman and Ryan. I guess the Mets beat you too it.
Are you actually trying to say this is better rotation lmao
Imagine wanting a rotation of Verlander, Scherzer, and deGrom in 2023
At some point adding these 40 year old starting pitchers is going to backfire hard. You can say they’ve shown no signs of slowing down, but it’s always no signs of slowing down until they do slow down.
Add in deGrom who is now 35 and injury prone and he might as well be just as risky as a 40 year old.
Mets are just asking for a disaster sinking $100+ million dollars in that much fragility. So no I would not be bragging about that trio. I’d much rather have second place Cy Young finisher Max Fried, rookie sensation breaking strikeout records of HOFers Spencer Strider, and 10th place Cy Young finisher Kyle Wright (which by the way was higher than Scherzer or deGrom because neither of them was on the field)
Keep being impressed by the names though. Pull Glavine out of retirement and add him to your HOF rotation while you’re at it…. Might as well lol
He probably will, I’d rather the HoF be guys who were dominant for a short time than good for a really long time.
@MJ Old, expensive pitching is already costing the Mets–look at the price they paid for giving deGrom 35m this season, and the price they’re likely to pay for giving Scherzer, who fell apart in the stretch drive-postseason, 3/130m instead of signing two superb pitchers for the same AAV.
In addition, their particular FA treadmill meant a lot of short deals and a lot of key pitchers leaving the same offseason.
Ryan wasn’t much of a starter until he left NYM.
Ryan and Tanana…
The only reason To watch the Angels then.
Huh, eerily the same now with 2 other guys…
Averaged 13 starts last two seasons. 84 wins for his career with two shut outs. Hall of fame – LMAO. Hall of WAR sure – averages 5 per season.
Hall of fame is for a pitcher like JV. He has three times the amount of wins that deGrom has and is headed for more. The Tom Brady of baseball.
Other than the Mets I don’t see anyone lining up with 40m a season for deGrom.
This is an interesting point, and one I’ve supported myself. There are so many guys who completely dominated in a 3-4 year span, but their careers were cut short by injury or age. These guys rarely make the Hall, but I think some of them should depending on the dominance. deGrom fits this category. There was a decent stretch where no one was particularly close to his skill level.
With the exodus of pitchers this offseason, it’s easy to see them investing in a younger arm with upside who might come at a lower AAV.
Worth noting, Kodai Senga has been following the Mets & some affiliates for a while now.
I think Degrom is a pretty clear HOFer actually. Longevity doesn’t mean as much to me as peak dominance. Degrom already has RoY, 2 CY and 6 top 10 CY voting. And would’ve been there in 2016 too if not for the injury that impacted his last few starts and made him miss the last 6 weeks. Wins really don’t mean much since they’re so team dependent, we’re long past that. Remember, he led the majors in IP from 2017-20 so he was plenty durable most of his career. Over 1300+ IP his ERA is 2.52, WHIP under 1, 10.9 K/9. Seems pretty easy to me to be honest.
And people forget Verlander also had some pretty poor years too. 2008 and 2014 were bad, 2013 not very good. I’m convinced he got some Clemens like artificial help to resurrect his career when he was declining, but we all know can’t prove those things anyway. But it’s a pretty noticeable and dramatic shift in numbers when he gets to Houston. Anyway, Verlander has also missed basically 2 full seasons, plus started in 2005 as opposed to 2014 for Degrom. So the compiled stats don’t mean that much to me.
I just looked at Seaver and Maddox career numbers. They might be the most comparable pitchers in baseball history. I was surprised how their career numbers are in lock step with one another.
Then there was Koufax/Drysdale/Sutton
Well, they each won a total of 1 World Series. It’s just that one team won because of the pitching and against all odds and even got back a few years later while the other wasted 14 straight division titles and got lucky to win the one they got. Not saying Glavine, Maddox and Smoltz weren’t great. Just saying calm down a bit here. I could easily argue that Halladay, Lee and Hamels plus Oswalt and Blanton trumps us both. They didn’t win either
Imagine preferring Scherzer, Carrasco and nothing else. They are the best pitchers on the market and all three are better today than Fried or anything else the Braves have man. Don’t be a homer. Long term? Maybe not, but why would you think JV does anything but close that what he did months ago? You Braves fans are hilarious. I mean, we both got tossed by 87 win teams. Obviously we weren’t that good nor were you.
Convinced based on what? Houston has had tremendous pitching coaches since he was traded there. get out of here with that accusation. Look at the facts.
And one championship ring each during their time. Sounds like the way Yankees fans are being held these days…… playoffs and pffft.
The Braves ARE set up to win with that young pitching staff, and probably have a better farm system to supplement when someone goes down. Better than the Mets system for pitching prospects. Better than the Phillies system for pitching prospects right now. The key was how easy it was to replace Freddy Freeman and keep going at that pace.
We will look at the standings soon enough
I think Verlander is just a back up plan in case deGrom signs elsewhere. I think they want a younger pitcher to add to deGrom and Scherzer. Senga and Rondon will be targets for all contending teams. The Dodgers will get one of them, and the Mets coulld get the other.
Koufax was the most dominant in the world series. He was great in the big games. The Dodgers in those days didn’t score many runs. He also threw over 300 innings. He is the Brady or Goat in the playoffs. Seaver was like Manning, great during the season, with some success in the playoffs. Maddux was the consument pitcher with deception, movement, and control.
Championships in today’s game are totally outlier. The best team rarely wins anymore. Most teams would love to get in the playoffs every year, and Yankees saying it is a failure is just hogwash. They made over 800 million last year. There fans are just spoiled with 27 championships. Some teams like Seattle , Tampa, and the Padres have never won a championship.
Koosman is in the Mets Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.
@slider32 154 game season, one postseason series, SS’s throughout the year w/ zero HR, pitching against pitchers…. It’s not close to comparable. They also played with a softer ball then. And weren’t fully integrated. And Koufax pitched off a mound 5″ higher than post-1968. Against guys who had never seen him before.
Obviously a great pitcher, w a brilliant WS resume, but there’s no possibility of anything like a conclusive GOAT discussion.
Wait so Carrasco is better than Fried? Lmao
When did this happen?
@Yankee Clipper… I rather have deGrom, but only at 3 years. If not I’ll take Verlander and dream of getting Rodon in there too.
I also have Carlos Rodon heading East…to the defending NL champion Phillies along with free agent SS Trea Turner.
Cohen: That makes sense… I know Verlander seems to be more durable, but DeGrom is much younger & has been a Met his whole life. Plus, when healthy, he’s got to be, arguably, the best SP in MLB.
I like Rodon out of the 3 for the Yankees (although they aren’t getting any of these guys) so I certainly see why you like him for the Mets rotation too.
As a Phillies fan, I hope you are right on both accounts. Give me Wheeler, Nola, Ranger and Rondon and, hell, I could be their fifth starter and I haven’t thrown a pitch since the pope was an altar boy.
Of the FA shortstops, I like Trea Turner the best. Hoping Cigar Guy (Middleton) opens up his wallet and signs both Turner and Rondon.
The current World Series losing Phillies
If they signed JV to a 2 year deal at $40m plus it would be a gamble and I don’t think it wise but they wouldn’t lose money on it. They would market it and sell so much JV merchandise they would be fine regardless of how many starts he makes.
Imagine thinking a team would make the money off of a 40 mil plus player in Merch…. Good lord.
I don’t see that as a putdown. Sounds nicer than 1st-round-exit Mets.
Backup Catcher: I am with you on Turner too. In fact, I think T Turner is one the biggest offensive impact players in MLB because of his combo of speed, pop, and hit tool. I’ve always coveted Turner and was so frustrated Cashman didn’t try to acquire him via trade, especially since the Yankees needed a SS. He’s one of my favorite players to watch.
I got Rodon going to TEX. They will shell out. You gotta think PHI is happy with their 1-3 to devote that $ elsewhere, possibly to closer, SS.
I’d rather have Rodon just because of money and age.
Hector Rondon shouldn’t take much to sign. Carlos Rodon on the other hand…
At least they were there friend. Adding another arm,a top shortstop and they will be there again.
Verlander will get three years and your merchandise claim is off.
28 teams wish they were the World Series loser.
You might be on to something there, Turner’s wife is from NJ and he and Harper came up togeither. If they land them both they will be set.
More important is Dombrowski’s relationship with Bogey and his agent.
Trea Turner came up through SD minors and Harper via Nats. Sure Trea was traded to Nats.
Merchandise sales are shared.
If the Mets were smart they would “shock the world” and make the intelligent decision to sign Rodon instead. Then watch deGrom and Old Man Verlander’s price drop like an anvil when Cohen isn’t there to pump it up. Rodon is the better buy anyway. Why any team would rather have much older and injury prone pitchers at a near record breaking salary instead of Rodon is beyond comprehension. Yes they are great pitchers but paying more to have them instead of signing Rodon is just not smart. Sign a good pitcher who will last a long time. Don’t pay more money to get an injury prone pitcher who won’t last nearly as long. But of course Cohen considers deGrom to be part of the Mets “brand” just like he considers Judge to be part of the Yankees “brand.” What ever happened to real free agency when owners signed the best players and didn’t let the MVP go to a city rival because of “brands?”
They lose a 2nd and a fifth draft pick and international signing money with Rodon. Rodon isn’t really an option.
@Steve Nebraska Not to mention the other big plus if you sign Rodon, you also have another $20m or so by AAV to add another stud to the rotation, or bring Nimmo back, or add 3 live, projectable arms to the pen. A second round and fifth round pick are worth, on average, about $5m total. It’s nothing in the scheme of things. No one seems to understand the value of the QO, especially corporate sports media, which appears to take pains to leave it undiscussed.
At these prices, let Texas have Jake. I’d love to have seen deGrom in a Mets uni until he retired and, ideally, went to the HOF with a Koufax-like resume, but not at the cost of betting everything on him putting up 500 brilliant innings over the next 3 years.
Sad to say, I think the last half of his brief 2022 season showed another, very possible outcome for deGrom: He gives you 23 starts next year with an ERA in the mid-3.00s. Brilliant when he’s on, but missing too often middle middle, ending with a tremendous K rate while giving up 1.5 HR per 9.
“Don’t pay more money to get an injury prone pitcher who won’t last nearly as long” and “sign Carlos Rodon” are definitely a pair of statements in conflict with each other.
Agreed and if Jake walks the Mets get a comp pick for that. And yes, at least $15M more to invest in another player.
@stevenebraska
The White Sox would take exception to you implying that Rodon is not injury prone. One injury free year does not make it so. The previous 6 years seem to have been omitted in your analysis.
How many great and injury free seasons does Rodon have in his career?
Degrom. He’s been our star player for a decade.
deGrom hasn’t pitched enough in the last 3 years to warrant the money, but with his upside he will get it. He seems to be the biggest gamble this winter.
If I was actually a Mets fan, and thank god I’m not. I would want to resign deGrom instead of Verlander. My gut tells me deGrom resigns for 4 or 5 years at $45 million a pop. We’ll see.
Yes, thank God you’re not
Yes, thank god you are.
@All Rise
I’m thinking the most they’ll do is 3/135. I don’t think they’ll go to a fourth year, even with an option. Just my gut
He has to choose? Why not both?
Why? It’s due diligence? Mets have the ability to think about any and all players.
If I’m a owner or GM I’m not paying anyone, don’t care who the player is even if they’re a HOF, a multi year contract past the age of 38. Goes against every aging curve in the history of the game. I’ll let someone else take the enormous risk.
For JV I’d have no problem giving him 45-46 million for one year and making him the highest paid player in the game.
Well I guess they could conceivably do none of this and just re-sign Bassitt, sign senga, and then try to trade for a number 2, but I don’t see it… they’re prob looking degrom verlander senga Bassitt in that order and prob afraid of the picks and money they lose w rodon… but they need a top flight LH SP badly
Look who they had last year with Scherzer, deGrom, Bassitt, and Walker and Lugo. Going into the playoffs they had the best pitching and the Dodgers had the best position player along with the Braves. None of these team won.
@Ma4170 If there’s a problem w that it’s that the Mets lack a #1 starter, certainly a #1 w/ the durability to lead them through a postseason.
I’d assume I wasn’t beating the Braves short of a $380m payroll, but also that I’d be one of the #4-6 seeds, and further assuming my aim was the World Series I’d therefore focus the offseason on the 2 best starters I could pick up in FA or trade, add the three best setup men I could possibly afford, then fill in with whatever money is left from a $300m budget, assuming that’s the most Eppler’s going to get.
@Jack
Yeah, I’m assuming they view Max as the ace, but to your point, maybe not one they can depend on being in peak form for the postseason
I wonder if cohen will go as high as 350M or if 300-320 is the more realistic number. It will be nice when Cano’s 20M comes off, along with Canha, Escobar, but they’ll have to extend Alonso asap. I still can’t stand the Lindor contract, even though he should have a few more nice years like last year. before the contract is up.
Must have been a weird zoom call if this article is right about Verlander being plan B to DeGrom.
Hey Justin just wanted to let you know that if Jake leaves us, we’re coming after you ..
Nobody really knows the $ ceiling on Cohen. We can speculate, but no one knows for sure. This off-season could be wild
#LFGM
Mets need younger pitchers, not older. Not sure this would be the move to make if DeGrom walks.
Normally I’d agree, but this older pitcher just beat every single younger pitching in pitching this year, and it wasn’t an aberration for him to pitch that well. He’s a unique older pitcher, brother.
True. But how much is left in the tank? Then again, DeGrom’s tank seems to be rather leaky
And he came back from Tommy John surgery while doing so? Uhhh Cliff Lee opted to not have the surgery a few years younger and retire because it doesn’t favor older pitchers? Verlander is indeed very unique?
@clipper – he’s unique, but I’d hate to be on the wrong side of that contract when his arm expires. They already have Scherzer to deal with and not sure what other arms they’re looking at.
I agree with you there. I know for sure if the Yankees signed him he would be injured for 80% and probably revert back to a 5+ ERA in his postseason starts because, well, that’s just how it is for the Yankees.
That’s funny!
Yes, a first ballot HOF pitcher, who just won the Cy Young, as Casey used to say, you never have enough pitching.
The Braves have most of their young star players signed to contracts, AA seems to have the best model. The problem is that most teams don’t have the great young players they have.
No thanks on Verlander. He missed the two previous seasons with injury, theres no way a contract longer than a year will end well. Would rather trade for Beiber and then extend him
I don’t think Bieber will be available, unless the Guardians fall out of it early.
@rememberthecoop And in that division, falling out of it early probably means July, at the soonest.
What would it take to get the Beebs for 2 seasons? Allan and Alvarez, probably—for starters. He’s put together the first quarter of a HOF career. Maybe you make the deal conditional on be able to extend him.
I’d be careful, in any case. The Guardians have the uncanny gift of dealing brilliant pitchers just before they collapse.
He didn’t really miss 2 full seasons. 2020 short season he had the Tommy John surgery in late September. Missed all of 2021 in recovery. Comes back even better than ever. Lets not act like JV has ever been injury prone
Yup. From 2006-2019 JV averaged 212 innings a year, plus the postseason. 30+ starts a year except for 2015, when he still made 20 starts. Trails only Randy and Roger in Cy Young career shares. All-time leader in WHIP. Just tied his career best in HR suppression. In the last 3 seasons he pitched more than 6 innings he finished 2nd, 1st, and 1st for the Cy. Just set a career high for ERA+, his ERA compared to the league and adjusted for park and competition. Ridiculously good, still, in every aspect.
Let’s not act like JV drank from the fountain of youth either. All these people saying give him 3 years will be the same people that will say it’s a terrible contract that the team should have never gave out if it turns out poorly.
Truest statement ever.
What is surprising to me about Verlander success at such an age is the fact he just came off TJS? A procedure that favors young pitchers, not older ones… Cliff Lee retired at 36 because he didn’t believe the procedure would be successful at his age? Thi k he tore it a few years prior and rode out the rest of his contract in Philly? Verlander is crazy, but not the guy I want pitching in the world series at all?
Medicine keeps making advances. Also chronological age vs biological age.
Why is everything phrased as a question?
There’s absolutely ZERO chance JV leaves Texas. If the Astros don’t break the bank, the Rangers will.
Should be noted – NYM FA under Cohen have been consistent in not leaking. So take into account the 50 NY metro beat writers (in like 6-7 different languages!) are desperate for clickbait crumbs. This Puma “lead” could well come from the Citi Field Shake Shack janitor
Cohen has his own writers, he bought them all!
I’m considering Salma Hayek.
Haven’t seen her lately but I don’t think anyone could criticize that move either way.
Her husband is worth $7 billion. He could buy her the Miami Marlins and pretty much match Cohen in spending, who is worth about $9 billion.
Cohen’s net worth is $17.4 billion. Last year, the next richest owner has a net worth of around $4 billion.
François-Henri Pinault is worth about $37 billion. He already owns a Ligue 1 futbol team in France, so he is already involved in sports.
My wife spends so much on Kering brand luxury items that I should be considered a stockholder.
No offense, but come on Simon, you need to proofread your work. “deGrom is still every chance to stay in New York…”, especially given it’s the leading sentence of the second paragraph. This is only effort, that’s all, it doesn’t take any special skill.
you mean you’re not supposed to put a ? at the end of every sentence? Shocking? That’s what it is, absolutely shocking?
Cry about it.
Jays need to seriously be Pursuing Verlander and deGrom
Verlander @ 44.5 aav 2 years. Player option @ something reasonable
Degrom, @ whatever he wants. He’s that good.
44.5 for two years for a guy above 40 and “something reasonable” really don’t belong in the same sentence
These are the types of people I have to listen to on the fan590. Fans think the only way to win is pay the most expensive and well known free agent every year. Sign everyone lol.
Exactly.
Iver… who else is out there???
2 years and u think it’s bad???
80 million is a months profit for Rogers
Take your negative Nancy BS, im so woke BS, I know better that’s why im a GM. Dumb take plus thumbs up me BS Fake pu55y nonsense to a Yankees thread
How many 40 year old players have won the Cy Young? How many have had a sub 2.00 ERA?
Headline should read “Mets considering everyone”
Headline should read “Everyone considering everyone “
Bill M has it figured out!
How about a 40 million pro rated contract based on the number of starts made? 25 million guaranteed with the other 15 to be earned after meeting certain thresholds? Relievers sign these types of appearance deals all the time.
Good idea, I’m his agent in this scenario. No we aren’t taking that my client has multiple 2 year offers for 80 plus million.
Fkn 2 faced Iver.
Literally commented on a post I Saud pay him 80 million 2 years
He’s like… fkn idiots, I listen to this all day on the radio cause I’m a shut in pleb
Then basically comments. Yea no team will do that, it’ll take 80 million
You’re such an attention w**re
Wish social credit existed here like it does in China. So many fkn 2 faced 50/50 attention seeking fools here
Bud, you’re taking sports chat way too seriously. Have a drink.
I figure it will take an AAV of $45M ( slightly more than Scherzer) to get JV. He might give the Astros a discount down to $40M due to no state tax in Texas but that’s as low as he’ll go. Probably a 2 year deal will get it done but I’m sure he’s asking for 3. Great pitcher and has done well in the postseason except during World Series games.
My prediction is that JV will say, just give me whatever Max got last time (roughly $43 million per year for three years)
I agree with the AAV. I think he might go for 2 years plus a vesting option.
I wonder if JV would consider something like the Yankees just gave Rizzo…a two-year with third year option and $40M per year, but a buyout of, say, $8M-$10M for the third, that essentially raises the first two years to $44-$45M should the team buyout occur.
I think that’s a very reasonable proposal. Would not be surprised if the final deal he signs is something along those lines.
No state income tax in Washington either. Or Florida where he lives. The Mariners? The Marlins? Do you REALLY think that players that make $30 million a year don’t have small armies of tax attorneys to make sure they keep their money regardless of where they play?
Verlander wound he my first choice here. He’s just more reliable.
That said I’d love to get him out of the AL West.
You are right, the rest of the Astros pitching is much more manageable for opposing teams lol
Going to be the Mets only choice after DeGrom signs with the Angels. Arte won’t do long term deals with pitchers, but he has no problem with spending money. 3/132 and DeGrom is an Angel. Since its short term it would not impact the sale of the team either. Can you imagine a rotation with DeGrom and Ohtani at the top?
Time for the new Met’s owner to move on from Jacob. It’s just not worth keeping him. He don’t pitch enough. 95 million for 16-8 since 2020, no way. He’d be great if he could stay on the field.
Try using IP instead of the useless wins loss record of a SP.
ESPECIALLY deGrom …how many low-scoring, no-run support losses did he take over the years? It’s amazin’ how many pitiful “losses” he suffered when he was, arguably, THE best pitcher in baseball
Whoever signs Verlander is going to regret it.
How do you comeback from TJS in your late 30s, still throw gas and win a Cy Young? Father Time is undefeated. He’s got to be on something and with him being on Houston and getting a coincidental resurgence, can we really be surprised? Unless he will be consistently taking whatever test-beating PEDs he was on, it’s going to be a dead contract.
Oh I forgot. MLB stopped steroid testing December 1st, 2021. Good luck in getting value for your contracts. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
Not if it is a one or two year deal. Verlander was great this past year.
Great at 39yrs. Ages 40 and 41 are pushing it.
A couple of things here.
First, was Nolan Ryan juicing when he struck out 301 batters at age 42 and 232 more at age 43?
Second, if, as you accuse, Verlander is juicing and there’s no more testing (which is not true – testing was reinstated after the lockout), why would you expect him to falter, since he could keep juicing to his heart’s content?
You’re right and I should have mentioned that in my original post – Testing did resume. But was I was alluding to was the months prior to the new agreement and how it was open for players to take PEDs with no consequence since testing was not instituted. The NY had an interesting article on the effects of PEDs during the lockout –
“if athletes properly trained while using steroid hormones, the gains could last at least six months to maybe a year, if not longer. Over the course of the grueling 162-game M.L.B. regular season — not including weeks of spring training and a month of the playoffs — players can lose weight and muscle mass. But a player starting from a higher base level thanks to doping… would have an advantage over one who did not.”
Also, Nolan Ryan is an anomaly. If you look at up his stats, his strikeouts per year were in line with how many starts he made that year. He also never had any major surgeries. He did need TJS during his age 40 season but opted to rest during the off season. His ligament didn’t exactly miraculously heal but, as Dr. Frank Jobe described, but it did calcify, thus stabilizing the elbow.
And as far as JV goes, his fastball had been declining several years ago as it sat between 91-93mph. Now after time and surgery, he’s found several mph and can crank it above 97mph? Not saying he’s absolutely gotten help. I’m skeptical.
That’s an interesting article in The Times. Thanks for that. It certainly adds credence to your point.
That said, though, I’m cautious about accusing players of juicing if I have no strong evidence, and for a couple of reasons.
First, because it’s a significant accusation and would be blameworthy if inaccurate.
Second, and I guess somewhat counterintuitively, because the ability to mask juicing is still very much a thing, and I lean towards believing what more than one player and insiders like BALCO’s Victor Conte have said: i.e., juicing was a lot more prevalent in the past than the league admits.
I suspect it still is, though considerably less than when the testing regimen was a joke. So why does that make me less inclined to make accusations instead of more so? Because I don’t want to be party to reprising the past syndrome that made a handful of players the scapegoats, which allowed the league to say, “We got the bad guys” and pretend the problem wasn’t as widespread as it was.
As for the increase in JV’s velocity after surgery. Dr. Christopher Ahmad, the Yankees’ Head Team Physician, says it’s not uncommon. (Google: “QUESTION — WILL MY VELOCITY GO UP AFTER TOMMY JOHN SURGERY?”) At the end of his article, he summarizes:
· Velo may go up if a pitcher’s velo has been held back by a slowly deteriorating UCL
· Velo may go up if Tommy John Surgery takes place during a players natural velocity increase/development period, i.e., young developing players
· Velo may go up as a result of the rehab process with energized discipline and increased strength in the legs, core, and arm
· Velo may go up with improved pitching mechanics following TJ surgery
· Velo may not increase if a pitcher was already performing at their max potential velocity
You’re a good man Ployed. Glad you’re here.
@Fink Ployed Great summary. Thanks.
—I wonder what the cost was, of Verlander’s surgery. $500,000? More?
@neurogame Not according to this. His FB has been averaging right around 95 mph since 2017:
fangraphs.com/players/justin-verlander/8700/stats?…
I understand your points but he’s also coming up on 40yrs old. I can’t recall a pitcher of Verlander’s talent or below, ever gaining velocity at such a late age. The oldest person to win the Cy Young was Roger Clemens at 42. It’s well documented what he did to get there. The Winner before that was Gaylord Perry at 40. He was notorious for doctoring the ball,
You’re right in that accusing someone without evidence is not the thing to do, but my thoughts are he could have been taking PEDs after the agreement expired and during the lock out, not to build up a bunch of muscle but just heal his arm and recover faster. I could be wrong but I believe Andy Pettitte did something similar to help himself through elbow injuries.
This is off topic, but my feelings are taking something like HGH in the off-season shouldn’t be demonized if it’s truly done to help recover from a injury. These are world class athletes who need to be healthy to play in a billion dollar sport. I wouldn’t be as disturbed with JV’s performance had it not happened with Houston and the sort of seedy underbelly environment they’ve created the last 4-5 years.
During the off-season, I wish Cody Bellinger would take HGH for his shoulder. Or Clayton Kershaw for his back. Or Bryce Harper as he recovers from TJS. Or HyunJin Ryu for his elbow. I get that it creates are real slippery slope though. That s*h* would be rampant with all sorts of doctor’s notes.
With insurance, TJS can cost up to $5000, but without it can be up to $50K. As long as the player is employed by the team, the bill goes to the team. The player pays nothing.
The surgery itself, not including anesthesia, runs $15-50k. A full year of PT is more than $100k. Don’t know what a full year of the rehab a pitcher does above and beyond PT would cost. This is an interesting article on the Cost of Recovery from TJ surgery. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31668501/ From 2004 to 2014 it averaged $1.9 million per player. I would be willing to venture a guess that its more today.
neurogame and outinleftfield know more about that than I do, Jack, as you can see.
@neurogame Excellent posts—thanks. I should have been clearer wrt the cost of TJS: i meant the cost of that operation, specifically, where I doubt Verlander and other interested parties would have accepted less than probably THE world’s best TJ surgeon. Which he got in Keith Meister, who has been at it for a long time.
Elite surgeons make a fortune from precision operations, and elite sports surgeons make twice that, but I couldn’t pin down the cost of this one, specifically, which may not even be in the public domain.
FYI there’s more logic in believing pitchers rebound after TJS then there is in believing pitchers use PEDs to get the upper hand in these days.
The umps check pitchers’ gloves after each inning
Steroids does not help a pitcher throw a baseball. Otherwise arnold, lou ferrigno, ronnie coleman would of been hall of fame pitchers. Verlander has a god given right arm and he has an impossible work ethic. And for all the bums talking about Verlander’s playoff resume. Here’s his resume:
16-11 3.64 era 207 ip 230 k’s His teams have been to 5 world series. He’s the best pitcher of his generation and its not really even close. Kershaw and scherzer wish they were Verlander.
@Astros2017Champs Kershaw’s dominance makes Verlander cry.
Compared through Kershaw’s current age, CK has thrown 2581 ip with a 157 ERA+
Verlander had 2545 ip with a comparatively pitiful 124 ERA+.
Kershaw has been astronomically better. You’re claiming something utterly bizarre, like Bryce Harper for their careers is better than Mike Trout.
Kershaw has sucked in the post-season big time. The only time he hasn’t was when there were no fans or playing in a neutral site. That’s what Astros2017champs was trying to say. If you claim otherwise then that is absolutely bizarre.
Is argument is a casual fallacy. You named body builders as examples. That is completely tangential to the idea of throwing a baseball.
CAUSAL fallacy. csus.edu/indiv/m/mayesgr/phl4/handouts/phl4causalf…
“Steroids does not help a pitcher throw a baseball.”
Astros2017Champs11;
It sure revitalized Roger Clemens career….and there were many others.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are hoping Franklin Perez will throw an inning this year and Jake Rogers can push his BA above .188.
Mets / Padres considering [insert player name here]
Thank you for kindly summing up the majority of the next week or so’s articles on here. Lol
I don’t care who you root for, this is great:
twitter.com/TalkinYanks/status/1593744269663260677
This team is cursed by the ghost of Michael Conforto
I will live stream me eating a shoe if this happens, not in a million years.
What kind of shoe?
Y’all can pick the shoe brand
How about the The Reebok Shaq Attaq ‘OG’ in Shaq’s size. That would be size 22.
sportscasting.com/shaquille-oneal-feet-so-big-he-p…
I’ll be back if this happens you better eat a shoe or u owe me 25k
Rodon & Bassitt – two for the price of one.
Good!
Given how desperately the 2023 Mets will need certainty from pitching, Verlander is a much better bet than deGrom to give at least 160 innings at a high level, and a much better bet to also be on the roster and effective throughout October.
The Mets can’t catch the Braves, so unlike the Braves, who need to focus what discretion they have this offseason on setting up to beat three very good to great teams in thee rounds of the postseason, the Mets need to broadly assume that with a $300m payroll and respectable talent already on hand, they’ll be one of the #4, 5, or 6 seeds in the postseason and therfore figure out how to build a team capable of winning 4 rounds of the postseason rather than winning, say 98 games rather than something like 92.
That means focusing on getting three more superb relievers, and two more starters capable of winning in the postseason. It also means planning on getting Scherzer and an old pitcher like Verlander at least a month off during the season, since neither is going to give you 180-200 innings during the year then another four rounds of starts in October.
—Fwiw, speaking of a hypothetically healthy deGrom the difference between an ERA of 2.00 versus 1.50 is significantly less than the difference between an ERA of 3.00 versus 2.50 when it comes to affecting the outcome of games, particularly in the contexts of the difference in salaries and of having a good offense largely on hand, as they do . Do the Mets know this? In addition, if they sign deGrom, are they prepared to do without him or sit him for either two months of the season, or lose him for the entirety of the postseason? For any of Scherzer, Verlander, and deGrom, they also have to consider treating any or all of them as ‘Sunday pitchers’ for much of the year in order to limit their innings and keep them available for October. Doing that alters everything else they need to do this offseason.
If the Mets land both deGrom & Verlander wondering whether they should go into a 6-man rotation or not. Gives more rest for the three geriatric aces. But then you need even more depth.
@ignorant-Son-of-a-b Wow! Almost certainly a 6-man, in that case. They’ve got Megill, Peterson, and Carrasco, who are good enough to keep them in games, albeit at most at 5 innings a start and for probably no more than 300 innings, combined, as starters as each of those three have lacked durability, with only 1 season between them of more than 105 MLB innings since 2018.
You’d probably love to add a good starter to that mix, comparable to Bassitt (but not Bassitt) plus a Trevor Williams-caliber swingman.
$350m payroll, here we come!
The Mets already caught the Braves. Both had 101 wins in 2022.
He’ll never make it in New York. We tear his kind apart
Scherzer, deGrom, and Verlander, you can’t lose can you?
The only thing missing from that rotation is Satchel Paige. For the change of pace, you know.
I’m pretty sure he would be fully committed to pitch to soft contact and, at 116, he would probably appreciate this new-fangled DH thing, too.
Oil can Boyd as thr 5th to stretch out the rotation
So the fanbase would be good with signing not one, but two aging arms with durability issues. Seems pretty smart to me. Everyone knows pitchers get healthier as they get older, just like Scherzer has proven to be.
Jays fans say Hi
So the fanbase thinks it wise to sign not one, but two aging arms with durability issues. Why not? Everyone knows pitchers get healthier as they get older, just as Scherzer has proven.
Few think that, but messing around with the idea is its own special fun.
I think, combined, you’d probably average 55 superb starts in 2023 from the 3, probably worth in the neighborhood of 11-12 WAR. Not worth the $135m you might be paying just for 2023, and not worth the price you’re all too likely to pay for the years after 2023 you committed to.
Still, fun to mull over.
But is JV interested being a met?
When it comes to age, I think a lot of fans aren’t really keeping up with the advances being made in understanding health and aging. We’re seeing more and more players, especially the intelligent ones, performing at or exceeding league average levels as they approach 40 because they have access to the best trainers and nutritionists and are understanding the importance of exercises like yoga in their routines. I wouldn’t be surprised if Verlander performs at the same level for the next two or three seasons. It’s not the 1970’s anymore…
@vtbaseball Well said.
How the Giants resurrected several careers to win 107 in 2021 was wild. Now we’ve got “platelet-rich injections to speed injury recovery” along with dozens of other recent treatments, not to mention the application of high tech to read torque on every cc of a pitcher’s arm, and ever improving, real time fMRIs….
That medical tech and treatments would be so useful to the 8,000,000,000 of us not in pro sports I’m tempted to suggest legalizing all PEDs as long as the information is made available publicly.
“Consider this”…..
Sounds like a twighlight zone…….
Verlander wouldn’t ruin his brand. If he goes to New York he will wear pinstripes in the Bronx. He doesn’t need to be second best in New York. Plus Cole admires him and will take second to Verlander. Max wont
You mean like he did in Detroit? Has Max’s ego changed so much?
Wouldn’t ruin his brand by going to the Mets? If Cohen offers the most money, JV will take it. Really pretty simple.
Going all in on the old aces.
Bring back RA Dickey
Why would any player that wants to win titles go to the Mets? The Mets could spend $400M this year and they still won’t win they’re the Mets and the Mets do one thing better than every other team, they choke. Mets will always Met.
@Mystery Team Going cheap and inept at the 2022 Deadline was as Mets a Mets thing to do as their GM falling asleep, drunk, at a stop sign after leaving the team owner’s bash, then firing him, then learning a judge didn’t believe a reasonable person could have concluded he was drunk and finding him not guilty… or their GM having sexted reporters… or…
To give deGrom $45 mil for 3-4 years will be a mistake, he can’t stay healthy plus after the 4th inn he looks like he slows down, and to give Verlander (Scherzers) type money, I’d rather sign both Rodon and Senga combined for that. They can still have a good rotation with Scherzer,Rodon,Senga,Carrasco and Peterson . If Scott Boras is asking for $20-$25 a year for Nimmo let him go too, the Mets should sign Bellinger to play CF if not sign Conforto and shift Marte, than sign either Voit or Josh Bell to DH.
Are they playing to make the payoffs or win the series? Was it the starting pitching or lack of power for the dh? Resign bassist and sign Rondon. Then upgrade the dh with power. Look to improve some position players. If you can’t that is why you have a trade deadline.
Lack of a dh and a terrible trade deadline did the Mets in.
Verlander is a more reliable Jacob DeGrom. With that will come with a much higher salary. JV stayed pretty much healthy his entire career until his Tommy John surgery in 2020. His only other time off was having core muscle surgery while with Detroit in 2015 I think it was. DeGrom is a Mets icon and I can understand if they prefer him over JV. I know Tigers fans would love for him to go back but not at $40 million+ a year. I know Astros fans want him to go back to Houston as well. I don’t think he’ll sign with the Mets anyway. If he’ll go to NY it would be to the Yankees. So I think he’ll either stay in Houston or sign with the Dodgers, Yankees or Phillies.
He has rebuffed the Yankees year after year but sure their the favorites.
@ActionDan You’re not the Action Dan that has written a few books on cards, are you?
Might as well get Greinke too. Make it 4 HOFs.
The Mets need a CF.
Verlander should sign with Detroit. Detroit should trade him for prospects after making some sales……
Harris and Illich need to hire me. Obviously, I know what I am doing and they….haven’t a clue…….
The Tigers had a Rotation of: Verlander, Scherzer, Price, Porcello, Anibal Sanchez,
Drew Smiley(switched to the bullpen in the playoffs) and Robbie Ray (just getting his feet wet) at one point in their last run of contention.
It does not guarantee any team a Championship.
A lot has to go right on the entire team to win that World Series Trophy!
Some luck involved too!
A few of those Tigers teams blew right through the playoffs, had long layoffs waiting for the NL to settle its playoffs and came out with cold bats for the World Series.
So, go figure!
There’s probably at least 10 years considering JV.
if it was a Zoom call, you know it’s real
2 year 100 sounds about right.
That sounds like massive overpay. Maybe 2/88. Still overpay by a lot but he’ll get more aav than Scherzer.
Verlander coming back to the Astros on a team friendly gives him the best shot at 300 wins, its a relative certainty he gets the milestone, as he appears to have more than enough in the tank, but hard to break up a good thing going for a bigger payday when your already making 25M AAV
This will be JVs last contract of his career. He is getting into the HOF regardless of getting to 300. No one is getting a team friendly deal.
After the Angels sign DeGrom, who are the Mets and Yankees going to turn to as their second choice?
This owner would be dumb enough to pay verlander what he wants. I’d offer him 20-25 for 1 year. That is where all the smart teams are. Houston is probably 2 for 40 because they’re nice and feeling generous. This mets owner is bidding against himself lol
I don’t see him taking a one year contract