The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are in agreement on a $14.5MM deal for the 2023 season to avoid arbitration, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
Guerrero Jr., who has spent his entire career as a member of the Blue Jays organization, was the universally-recognized top prospect in baseball ahead of his major league debut in 2019. While his debut season was solid for a rookie, it failed to meet those lofty expectations as he slashed .271/.339/.433 (106 wRC+) across 123 games in the big leagues. The shortened 2020 season was more of the same for Guerrero Jr. as he posted a wRC+ of 110 while largely repeating his 2019 stats, with slight improvements to his ISO and strikeout rate being largely cancelled out by a drop in his BABIP.
Guerrero Jr. fulfilled the promise of his top prospect status and then some in 2021, however. In 161 games, Guerrero Jr. slashed a phenomenal .311/.401/.601, good for a whopping 166 wRC+ that led the slugger not only to his first All Star appearance, but a second place finish in MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. Following that banner season, Guerrero Jr. came back down to earth somewhat in 2022, though he was still far better than he had been in the first two seasons of his career. A slash line of .274/.339/.480 was good for a wRC+ of 132, a second All Star appearance, and some down-ballot MVP votes.
The $14.5MM agreement ties the record set by Pete Alonso earlier today for highest salary among arbitration-eligible first basemen. Guerrero will again be eligible for arbitration both next offseason and ahead of the 2025 campaign, and is set to become a free agent during the 2025-26 offseason. It’s possible Toronto will lock Guerrero Jr. up before then, however, seeing as the slugger publicly stated that he was open to a long-term extension earlier this offseason. Today’s agreement does not preclude a longer deal later on this offseason, though there haven’t been many rumblings of such an agreement being in the works to this point.
When does he become a FA?
after 2025
In 3 more seasons – see the Bref link
Same as Alonso
I’d rather have Vlad
But 2 years vs 3 years of control (Alonso vs Guerrero), meaning he will make more than Alonso at the same point in arb
Vlad is way more fun to watch and will likely have a better career.
The Alonso/Vladdy comparison is interesting. Vladdy has a lot of hype including his fathers legacy. His ceiling as seen in 2021 is stunning and MVP level, but he lacks consistency. His first, second and fourth seasons were all comfortably above average to varying degrees but none were close to year three. He led the Majors in grounding into double plays last season.
Alonso’s ceiling may be a little lower then Vlad’s, but he has shown to be pretty consitently great in every one of his 4 seasons
OPS+
Vladdy_____Alonso
106_______147
115_______122
167_______133
132_______146
Honestly, If I’m investing in one of these guys longterm, right now, Alonso is the better bet. If Vladdy starts having more 150 OPS+ seasons then he’s the guy, but he hasn’t done it yet. It’s time to stop talking about potential. This will be Vladdy’s 5th year in the majors. At some point he has to put up the numbers or all the talk is just talk.
138 to 134 career wRC+ in favour of Alonso but his first free agent year will be his age 30 season whereas Vlad’s is going to be his age 27 season. The value of the prime years is worth so much.
@KamKid
But again you’re talking about their averages. I freely acknowledge that they are comparable over the average, But Alonso does close to the same thing every year. Vladdy’s peaks and valleys are far more pronounced at this early point in their careers. I’m also not saying I’d sign either to the same contract. Obviously, Alonso’s deal would be for less years and probably less money
I’m saying, in general, that signing either of these guys to their respective long term deals, Alonso looks to be more reliable, while Vladdy has the higher ceiling. I would personally choose reliably great over occasional superstar
I guess it depends on how you project their skill sets to age. If you think Alonso is going to be consistently great into his mid thirties, then a 5 or 6 year deal (new money beyond the current control) is a safer bet than twice the amount to the younger player. In general I’d rather pay $300m for 10 years to a 27 year old where I’m likely to get surplus value on the front half of the contract versus paying $150m for five years to a thirty something where I’m only likely to get a year or two of surplus value.
Again it depends how you project them. Alonso may have established more of a floor in his age 24-27 seasons than Vlad did in his age 20-23 seasons but Vlad is entering his age 24 season which would represent the year Alonso finally made it to the majors. If you think the cement has dried on what Vlad is going to be, then your analysis might be good. I’m going to guess that Vlad’s ceiling is still intact but his floor will raise as he starts to enter his prime.
@Canuckle. I love Alonso, but those Alonso OPS+ years you posted are age 24-27. Vlad hasn’t even hit that age range yet. Give him some time. Maybe he doesn’t turn out as good as Alonso over the long term, but he’s still been pretty darn good
Let’s see how they do without the shift.
He wont ever become a FA
I hope not 🙂
Free agent eligible after his age 26 season
As a Jays fan I don’t want to miss out on his age 27-33 seasons
If they don’t extend him NOW, he WILL get to FA!
It will take the Jays the most guaranteed money ever to keep him. And they should.
It would probably take close to double what Springer got.
Why? If he puts up an OPS over .900 the next 3 years than maybe, but if he’s a solid 4-5 WAR guy like last season why would he deserve Trout, Ohtani or Judge money?
He’ll turn just 24 when season starts. He’s the home grown face of the franchise and totally marketable. He’s a gold glove 1st base, perennial triple crown threat the next 10 years. He’s Miggy all over again.
If not him, who?
If the Jays did a long term today, I say 15yr, 450M and ride home to the hall.
They would double their investment easy.
Vlad will be 27 at free agency, he’s not getting a 15 year extension
I said today he would get that much. In three years, At free agency he gets 13yr at 32M Annually. Easy
I disagree with the 13 year part.
Do the people calling Vlad a golf glove 1b actually watch him everyday? And do they realize his competition for that award wasn’t all that great. I wouldn’t call him anything more than average right now. Not to say he still can’t improve given his age but he’s likely not even the best 1b on his own team defensively now.
Vlad jr was voted a gold glover by the league coaches and managers.
26!
His competition at that position being weak still shows he’s better then anyone else. Does it mean he is the best defensive 1b ever no, but he is a lot better then most people available right now at that position, so that makes your argument invalid
Also 1b is a offense first position, so someone that good offensively with the level of defense he offers only makes what he does defensively more valuable. Leaves the dh position open to add another elite bat.
If he in the NL he doesn’t sniff the meaningless award. I can tell many of you who think he’s great defensively are new fans or ignorant fans.
Look, he was voted a gold glover by those who know baseball. Fact.
Iver, you sir are just Ignorant!!
yeah that’s a spicy take he has for sure lol considering that it’s not his natural position and has constantly kept bo’s arm from being less of a liability than it could be
I’ve forgot more about baseball than you’ll ever know. So I doubt it.
lol wouldn’t know it from what i’ve read here
You’re opinion is irrelevant
‘close to double what Springer got’ is 300.
Trout got 12/426, judge got 9/360.
No one is making the argument that Vlad should get Trout money so not sure what you’re talking about really.
I think Soto is a good comp, and might set the bar for Vlad. Very similar players, I think.
His last arb season will cost a fortune
Yeah
Soto will prob get 30+ next year and Vlad could too if he has another great year
Or even triple that @Dusty. Springer was 30 when he signed his deal. Vlad will be 26 as a FA. Juan Soto will set the new salary standard so he should wait and see if he’s chasing money. He’s obv not as good as Soto but $300M is the floor for any extension.
His first season of arbitration? Didn’t he make $7.9M last year?
Yeah exactly what I was about to post. He’s in year 2/4 of Arbitration (he was a super 2)
Hmm, 15/300? AAV is 20M which isn’t over cumbersome. Allows the Jays to build team around him and keeps him as a lifer Jay. Plays 1B until mid 30s and then DH after that. Contract starts next year and ends at his year 39 age. Thoughts?
Given that his next arb salaries should be enormous, and given how young he will be hitting free agency, there’s very little reason for him to do 15/300 now. He should make well over $40MM the next two years alone, and then could probably get close to 10/$400 as a free agent. 15/$300 is a hard pass, IMO.
The highest paid 1b ever was Miggy at 32/year.
I don’t think Vlad will beat that by 8 million per year.
15 years/$300M would be considered highway robbery. There’s no reason. If someone like Correa can get 6 years/$200M to 10 years/$270M, and you’re proposing a 15 year deal for Vlad, Vlad, Jr. will get a minimum of 15 years/$375M- minimum- and that would still be considered a team friendly underpay.
At that level of contract length alone, there’s no reason for a player to accept such a low AAV.
VGJR is worth at least $25M a year, minimum and even that would seen as an extremely team friendly deal where the union would be disappointed by how much money he left on the table.
Why would he agree to such a low offer over such a long period of time?
Only way he agrees to 15 years/$300M is if that’s a base salary with extremely easily achieved incentives every season that could turn the $20M AAV into $28.1M AAV every single season with additional MVP/Silver Slugger/Batting Title, etc. bonuses that could push the total to $43.1M in a single season so that the theoretical maximum value would be 15 years/$646.5M.
I think the most realistic flat rate team friendly deal for Vlad, Jr. would be 15 years/$450M. Even that, that’s more likely to be 15 years/$495M.
I think the positional value comes in to play.
Freeman just got 6/162, which is 27 a year.
Obviously given the age difference Vlad will get more years but I can’t see him getting over 30 mil AAV.
This is a reply to bleacher creature, not sure why replies are all messed up!
I’ve considered that and I can see him close to $40M AAV if salary inflation continues for elite players in two more years. The best thing the Jays can do is lock him up now to lower his AAV.
Vlad will get the long term deal and Bichette will get traded before they lose team control. Writing is on the wall…
If the Blue Jays offer him a 10/$300M extension this year, he should take that offer without question. IF he has another great year, his arbitration salary will grow to $20M-$21M and then maybe $27-$28M in year 4 if he continues to excel. Getting $30M per year would equate to getting close to $32M after buying out his last 2 years of arbitration. That is an above market salary for a 1st baseman.
Vlad also has a weight problem. He did a great job losing weight and getting into ‘shape’ in 2021 but the older he gets, the harder he’ll have to work to keep the excess weight off. His position (1B or DH only) and his physique will definitely be considered as part of any extension offer or free agency offer, so 10/$300M sure feels like a great deal for Vlad. If he can continue hitting like Papi through age 34 or 35, he could still make another $80M+ after this 10 year deal expires as well.
Yes. 10 years/$300M would be a solid deal, but I don’t think he’d take that. I think he will still be looking for at least 8 years in free agency, if not 10 or more.
So maybe 12 years/$340M if he was extended beginning in 2024, or 13 years/$354.5M if you include his already agreed upon 2023 salary.
i think what gets forgotten in this equation is that vladdy doesn’t come from a poor family, he’s baseball royalty. this isn’t a hungry kid looking at 100’s of millions which has enabled anthopolis in ATL make some very timely team friendly signings.
i think vladdy digs his feet in, goes thru arb and threatens FA if he doesn’t get his number.
he’s a confident kid who knows his best years are ahead of him and it hard to look at his potential ceiling and think he’s wrong.
Serious question… Jays signed Brandon Belt right? Both Belt and Vlad play 1B? Anyone know what the plan is there? Would they platoon them? Is someone a backup or DH? Would appreciate any insights from Jays fans.
Deke last season Vlad DH’ed in 32 games, That would put Belt at 1st for 32 games, If you account for 40 DH games for each of Springer and KK then Belt has the possibility to DH for 50 games (dependent on how the team wants to use the catchers) Belts bat could be in play for 82 games over the season. Just my guess anyways
KK will not be a DH for 40 games. His biggest value is his defence. If he is in the lineup he’ll be in the outfield. You’ll see belt the main DH/spelling Vlad at first and probably see Kirk/Jano/Springer mix DH the rest
Plough hit the mail on the head
Sorry plough, my whole premise was based on last season both KK and Springer had injuries, and Springer DH.ed 40 times last season so i based my prediction on them both maybe DH’ing 40 games (which is the Jays way) each and Vlad 32 times like he did last season. I also noted the Jano/Kirk options for DH’ing
Thanks. How is Vlad’s defense at first? Belt is a really good defensive first baseman. But he’s always struggled to stay healthy
Deke, Vlad won his 1st gold glove last season at 1st base, so his defense is passable i guess
Belt is going to get the majority of DH appearances. I think this affects the catcher at bats more than anything. Given they have a few left handed hitters who are platoony in nature, having Kirk or Jansen as a right handed bench bat in any game will allow them some late game pinch hit and leverage options.
12 yrs at 32 mil a season
>Guerrero Jr. does so in his first year of arbitration
Correction. Vladdy was a super-two arb player in 2022 and settled for $7.9M.
I’m kinda new to this app but I’ll say I love to see vlad play he is entertaining. But talent and potential I think goes to Alonso
Pete is 5 years older and has never had a season as good as Vlad had as a 22 year old
.320 50/130 this year.