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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Wait Until Offseason For Possible Extension Talks

By Mark Polishuk | April 16, 2022 at 1:44pm CDT

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays agreed to a one-year, $7.9MM deal to avoid arbitration, though the Jays also had some interest in discussing a longer-term contract, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports.  However, Guerrero and his representatives at Magnus Sports preferred to wait until after the season before “exploring something significant.”

As a Super Two player, Guerrero still has three more years of arbitration eligibility, so he isn’t scheduled for free agency until after the 2025 season.  Guerrero will be only 27 years old on Opening Day 2026, so it would be likely that Guerrero could command a decade-long (or more) free agent contract if he keeps up his current level of production.

The 2025-26 offseason is a long ways away, yet Guerrero may already seem like a pretty safe bet.  Regarded as baseball’s best prospect prior to his 2019 debut, Guerrero posted good numbers in his first two big league seasons before exploding to 48 home runs and a .311/.401/.601 slash line over 698 plate appearances in 2021.  This performance earned him a Silver Slugger, the AL Hank Aaron Award, an All-Star nod, and a second-place finish in AL MVP voting.

Guerrero hasn’t missed a beat in the early days of the 2022 season, hitting five more homers over his first 32 PA.  As much negotiating leverage as Guerrero and his camp already has in contract talks, that leverage would only grow if Guerrero delivers another MVP-level season.  Waiting until next winter to discuss a long-term extension also carries some risk of injury or a dropoff in performance, though Guerrero already has the financial security of this season’s $7.9MM, some type of arbitration raise for next year’s salary, his $3.9MM signing bonus as an amateur, and three seasons of minimum salaries.

In short, the only real question with a Guerrero extension might be how it would stack up against the largest contracts in baseball history.  Going beyond the $300MM threshold seems a given, and considering Guerrero’s age, his agents can make a case that their client should top Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365MM extension with the Dodgers as the biggest “new money” deal ever.  (Mike Trout’s current extension with the Angels gave him only $360MM in additional guarantees, as Trout was already owed $66.5MM over the final two seasons of his previous contract.)

As a first-base only player, Guerrero is a bit more of a defensive question mark than Betts, Trout, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr., or other high-salaried players who play more premium defensive positions.  However, Guerrero acquitted himself quite well at first base in 2021, posting +2 Defensive Runs Saved and +2.5 UZR/150 (though the Outs Above Average metric rated him a -3).

Bo Bichette’s status is another factor, as the young shortstop has also made himself a candidate for a very lucrative extension.  Bichette recently said that his agents had some extension talks with the Jays but nothing really materialized, and like Guerrero, Bichette is also a free agent after 2025.  Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro said that “during that time, it’s safe to say we will continue both formally and informally to explore extensions with” the two players, and that “it’s not like we are a small market where if it gets towards the end of the contract and we can’t extend them, we need to panic and trade them for prospects.”  Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and George Springer are the only players signed beyond the 2025 season, so Toronto does have long-term space available for inking one or both of Guerrero and Bichette.

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Toronto Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration With Teoscar Hernandez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

By Anthony Franco | March 22, 2022 at 6:01pm CDT

The Blue Jays have settled on deals with their two most notable arbitration-eligible players. Corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández will receive $10.65MM, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link); first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in line for $7.9MM, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Hernández’s deal comes in narrowly above the $10MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. It’s a notable jump from last season’s $4.325MM salary, reflecting the excellent season the right-handed hitter just posted. Hernández hit .296/.346/.524 with 32 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 595 plate appearances last year. He’ll be arbitration-eligible one final time next winter before hitting free agency over the 2023-24 offseason.

Guerrero’s salary is an exact match for Swartz’s projection. It’s the 23-year-old’s first year of arbitration, and he lands his first significant payday after finishing as the AL MVP runner-up. Guerrero hit an incredible .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances this past season, emerging as the kind of impact hitter the Toronto fanbase had been hoping for when Guerrero was the sport’s top prospect. He owns a career .289/.367/.517 line and remains under control through 2025 after qualifying for arbitration early via the Super Two process.

Toronto also agreed to a two-year deal to buy out Matt Chapman’s final couple seasons of arbitration this afternoon. That brings the Jays’ projected payroll to around $171MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

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Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Teoscar Hernandez Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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AL East Notes: Guerrero, Bichette, LeMahieu, Camden Yards

By Mark Polishuk | January 16, 2022 at 6:51pm CDT

The futures of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are “the most pivotal bigger-picture personnel matter facing the Blue Jays,” Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes, and it remains to be see if both young stars will remain in Toronto over the long term.  Guerrero and Bichette are both controlled via arbitration through the 2025 season, and since their price tags will only rise (Guerrero is already arb-eligible as a Super Two player and projected for $7.9MM in 2022), locking them up sooner rather than later would be beneficial for the Jays.  That said, the two players have already done enough to ensure any long-term extensions would cost the Blue Jays a sizeable amount, certainly far more than $200MM and maybe even nearer the $300MM mark depending on the number of years involved.

As Davidi notes, Jose Berrios is the only Toronto player under contract beyond 2026, so the Jays have somewhat kept their long-term ledger clear in the event that Guerrero and/or Bichette are indeed extended to major deals.  Speaking of the “and/or” usage, the Blue Jays might opt to just extend one of the two, “and the relationship dynamic between team and player could be impacted if there’s only one extension.”  It will make for a fascinating topic for the coming years in Toronto, as Guerrero and Bichette’s contract situations weigh heavily on both the Jays, and on other players and teams around baseball looking to those two as possible precedents and comps.

More from around the AL East…

  • Yankees officials believe DJ LeMahieu’s lackluster 2021 could be traced to a sports hernia that the infielder tried to play through before finally getting surgery after the season, The New York Post’s Dan Martin writes.  A healthy LeMahieu that could return to his 2019-20 form would be an enormous help for the Bronx Bombers as they continue to figure out their infield picture, as LeMahieu’s position next season is still up in the air.  Presuming New York does acquire a regular shortstop, LeMahieu seems set to toggle between third, second, and first base, with Gleyber Torres set for regular duty at the keystone and Gio Urshela and Luke Voit penciled into at least part-time duty at the corner spots.
  • Renovations to Camden Yards’ left field area are intended to make the ballpark a little less treacherous for Orioles pitchers, and also to any future pitchers the team might be looking to eventually sign.  As GM Mike Elias told The Athletic’s Dan Connolly and other reporters, the Orioles’ ability to attract free agent pitchers was “definitely a significant factor in” the decision to renovate.  “The conditions here have been very extreme, towards the very most extreme in the league….It has been the case for decades and part of having a winning program is the ability to recruit free-agent pitchers, and that has been a historical challenge for this franchise,” Elias said.  While Connolly doesn’t believe the team will ever be a true destination for ace-level free agent hurlers, changing the dimensions might at least help the O’s land some mid-level veterans or bounce-back candidates, who might’ve been normally wary about working at such a hitter-friendly venue.
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Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees Notes Toronto Blue Jays Bo Bichette DJ LeMahieu Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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AL Notes: Astros, Blue Jays, Orioles

By TC Zencka | December 11, 2021 at 2:04pm CDT

Alex Bregman is preparing for a move to shortstop, should the Astros have a need, the third baseman told Michael Schwab on his podcast. Houston has not indicated a willingness to move Bregman, and in fact, GM James Click recently said that moving Bregman was not something they were considering. Still, it doesn’t hurt for Bregman to offer. We have seen a trend lately of third basemen moving up the defensive spectrum as players like Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw have seen time at second and Eugenio Suarez tried his hand at shortstop. These moves were hardly universal success stories, however, so it’s likely Bregman remains at the hot corner when the 2022 season opens.

In other rumblings from around the American League…

  • Like Bregman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was adamant last winter about his willingness to move up the defensive spectrum. Ultimately, Vladdy spent all of two innings at the hot corner in 2021. Recent rumors have again suggesting moving Vlad to third in order to accommodate a totally hypothetical Freddie Freeman signing, but that’s not something the Blue Jays have discussed with their young star, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. There would be other ways to accommodate a Freeman signing, but at least for now it seems their interest in Freeman was more due diligence than earnest sales pitch.
  • The Orioles signed five pitchers to minor league deals, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Bryan Bautista, 17, Raynel Duran, 18, Wilton Rondon, 19, Darwin Caballero, 21, and Noelin Cuevas, 19, will start the 2022 season in the Orioles’ organization. The Orioles continue to be one of the most pitching-needy organizations in the game, so while adding a handful of minor league free agents hardly qualifies as a game-changer, it’s a positive data point nonetheless. These five were all international free agents who will join the lowest level of Baltimore’s system, notes Kubatko.
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Baltimore Orioles Houston Astros International Free Agents Notes Toronto Blue Jays Alex Bregman Bryan Bautista Darwin Caballero Freddie Freeman James Click Noelin Cuevas Raynel Duran Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Wilton Rondon

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MLB Announces All-Star Starters

By Anthony Franco | July 1, 2021 at 8:35pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2021 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place in Coors Field on Tuesday, July 13. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

National League

  • Catcher: Buster Posey, Giants (7th selection)
  • First Base: Freddie Freeman, Braves (5th selection)
  • Second Base: Adam Frazier, Pirates (1st selection)
  • Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (6th selection)
  • Shortstop: Fernando Tatís Jr., Padres (1st selection)
  • Outfield: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves (2nd selection)
  • Outfield: Nick Castellanos, Reds (1st selection)
  • Outfield: Jesse Winker, Reds (1st selection)

American League

  • Catcher: Salvador Pérez, Royals (7th selection)
  • First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (1st selection)
  • Second Base: Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (1st selection)
  • Third Base: Rafael Devers, Red Sox (1st selection)
  • Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox (3rd selection)
  • Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels (9th selection)*
  • Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees (3rd selection)
  • Outfield: Teoscar Hernández, Blue Jays (1st selection)
  • Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels (1st selection)

*On the 60-day injured list

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2021 All-Star Game Aaron Judge Adam Frazier Buster Posey Fernando Tatis Jr. Freddie Freeman Jesse Winker Marcus Semien Mike Trout Nick Castellanos Nolan Arenado Rafael Devers Ronald Acuna Salvador Perez Shohei Ohtani Teoscar Hernandez Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Xander Bogaerts

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Vlad Guerrero Jr. Hopes To Play Third Base in 2021

By TC Zencka | November 7, 2020 at 3:15pm CDT

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has every intention of playing third base in 2021, per Emily Sadler of Sportsnet.ca. Guerrero understands why the move was made, but the decision to move Vlad Jr. to first was in part to protect him from a knee injury that contributed to his struggles at the hot corner in 2018. With the injury behind him, Guerrero apparently has some newfound fervor to turn himself into a viable option at third. Vlad’s defensive marks at first in 2020 were similar to his DRS and UZR at third base in 2019, which is to say they weren’t great (-4 DRS, -13.8 UZR/150). To his credit, Vlad took responsibility for letting himself fall out of shape during the pandemic shutdown.

If Guerrero succeeds, the Blue Jays could broaden their free agent search to include a full-time first baseman or second baseman. Cavan Biggio could move to first base full-time, leaving Toronto to explore pacts with Kolten Wong, DJ LeMahieu, or Cesar Hernandez, suggests Shi Davidi of sportsnet.ca. Of course, that probably presumes not only that the Jays are comfortable with Vlad at third, but that they are comfortable committing to him there for a couple of seasons. They have the designated hitter to play with as well, and Biggio’s versatility serves as a safety net of sorts, but it’s still worth a consideration. Travis Shaw is the incumbent at third, but he’s not likely to return as the full-time starter (.239/.306/.411 in 2020).

Timing might be an even bigger factor than Guerrero’s progress at the third for Toronto, depending on how quickly the hot stove shapes up. There are a number of high-profile third baseman available via trade should the Jays choose to go that route. This year’s platinum glove winner Nolan Arenado could theoretically be available via trade from the Rockies, as is Kris Bryant of the Cubs. Bryant can move around the diamond a bit as well, so even a star acquisition at third doesn’t preclude manager Charlie Montoyo from utilizing Vlad at both infield corners. Beyond LeMahieu, World Series champ Justin Turner is probably the best option at third base, though we here at MLBTR predict Turner to return the Dodgers.

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Toronto Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Shoemaker, Vlad

By Steve Adams | October 16, 2020 at 2:25pm CDT

Bo Bichette figures to be one of the centerpieces for the Blue Jays for the foreseeable future, but the budding superstar said on Sportsnet’s Good Show this week that a contract extension isn’t anything he’s thinking about at this time (audio clip).

“It’s been brought up and it’s definitely something I’m interested in, but at the same time I’m not going to sell myself short,” said Bichette. “We’ll see what happens. Right now, I’m not too worried about. I’ve still got a lot to prove in my career, and really the last thing on my mind is a contract extension.”

He’s only played in 75 games at the MLB level, but Bichette looks the part of an All-Star right now. The former top prospect has put together a .307/.347/549 slash with 16 home runs, 27 doubles, a triple and eight steals through his first 340 trips to the plate. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2022 season and is controlled all the way through 2025, however, so there’s ample time for the Jays to worry about financial matters down the road. Of course, the more Bichette established himself and the closer he inches to arbitration or free agency, the more the price tag on an extension will rise.

A couple more notes on the Jays…

  • Right-hander Matt Shoemaker also joined The Good Show this week to chat about his time with the organization and his upcoming venture into free agency. The 34-year-old was dominant in five starts with the Blue Jays in 2019 before suffering a torn ACL that ended his season. He returned in 2020 with lesser results, but Shoemaker’s overall body of work in Toronto was solid: 11 starts, 57 1/3 frames, 3.14 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, 50-to-18 K/BB, 49.7 percent ground-ball rate. Home runs were a huge issue in 2020, but Shoemaker could represent a reasonably affordable piece of rotation depth and made clear that he’d love to return. “I just want to go to a team that’s just hungry, right?” said Shoemaker. “And the Jays are hungry, man. Like, we’ve got this really young team who just love the game, fiery players, really talented.”
  • Toronto GM Ross Atkins said at season’s end that the Jays haven’t given up on the idea of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being able to play some third base, even if he’s not a primary option there. The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm makes a case against prioritizing versatility in this case and opines that Guerrero should simply be left to try to hone his craft at first base. Chisholm notes that defensive metrics and the eye test alike have panned Guerrero at both positions but likens Guerrero’s move across the diamond to the one made by Edwin Encarnacion several years ago — a move that eventually resulted in Encarnacion putting up some solid defensive marks at the less-demanding position. Guerrero still needs to develop better instincts at the spot, and getting regular reps at the spot should help.
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Notes Toronto Blue Jays Bo Bichette Matt Shoemaker Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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AL Injury Notes: Osuna, Cruz, Mariners, Guerrero, Iglesias

By Anthony Franco | September 19, 2020 at 8:02pm CDT

Some injury notes from around the American League:

  • Astros’ closer Roberto Osuna has progressed to throwing, per GM James Click (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Osuna was seemingly ticketed for a Tommy John surgery after going down with an elbow injury earlier, although the reliever instead elected to rehab and attempt to return this season. The likelihood of that happening isn’t clear, but it’s generally encouraging to hear that he’s throwing again.
  • Twins’ DH Nelson Cruz was scratched from today’s lineup against the Cubs. He’s dealing with right knee soreness, per various reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Eddie Rosario, who was initially slated to start in left field, got to DH instead, with LaMonte Wade, Jr. taking over in left. Cruz has again been among MLB’s best hitters, slashing .314/.403/.623 over 201 plate appearances.
  • A pair of Mariners are unsurprisingly out for the season, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter links). Catcher Tom Murphy has been shut down; he’ll miss the entire year due to a fractured metatarsal in his left foot. Outfielder Mitch Haniger continues to build up strength and endurance but hasn’t yet begun baseball activities, per Divish. Like Murphy, Haniger missed all of 2020.
  • The Blue Jays held Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. out of today’s lineup as a precaution, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (via Twitter). The young first baseman felt “a little dizzy” after being hit by a pitch in the helmet last night, per Nicholson-Smith. The Jays can afford to slow play things with Guerrero, as they sit four games up on Seattle for the final playoff spot in the American League.
  • Orioles’ shortstop José Iglesias left tonight’s game after getting hit on the left hand by a Charlie Morton pitch, relays Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter link). Pat Valaika stepped in at short in his stead. The 30-year-old Iglesias, a longtime defensive stalwart, has been stellar when healthy for Baltimore, hitting .377/.406/.515 in 139 plate appearances. He has been diagnosed a left wrist contusion, per Roch Kubtako of MASNsports.com (Twitter link).
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Baltimore Orioles Houston Astros Minnesota Twins Minor League Baseball Notes Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays Jose Iglesias Mitch Haniger Nelson Cruz Roberto Osuna Tom Murphy Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Vlad Guerrero Jr. Shifts To First Base

By TC Zencka | July 10, 2020 at 1:59pm CDT

We knew this moment would come. We just didn’t know it would happen this soon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will make first base his primary position moving forward, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (via Twitter).

After one full season at third base, the 21-year-old power phenom will focus his attentions on becoming a primary first baseman and designated hitter. Vlad committed 17 errors in 94 starts at the hot corner in 2019. The advanced metrics didn’t care much for his effort either (-9 DRS, -9.4 UZR). Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged Vlad last in the league (tied with the Twins’ Jorge Polanco) with -16 OAA.

Offensively, there’s little doubt that Vlad Jr. has one of the most prodigious power strokes in the game, even at such a young age, and this move allows him to focus on what he does best. Vlad Jr. stroked 15 home runs over 514 plate appearances while slashing .272/.339/.433 as a 20-year-old. The move across the diamond was an eventuality, and in some ways, it makes sense to make the move as soon as possible rather than spend development time at a position without a long-term future. It’s certainly possible Guerrero Jr. ends up as a primary designated hitter, but he’ll try his hand at first in 2020.

With Vlad Jr. shifting over to first, Travis Shaw expects to get most of the playing time at third, per Nicholson-Smith. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hasn’t played any third, but the infielder/outfielder could presumably pick it up, while second baseman Cavan Biggio played a little bit at the hot corner in Triple-A. Breyvic Valera is also capable of handling third.

Shaw, signed as a free agent, is coming off a bizarrely disappointing showing in 2019 as he hit just .157/.281/.270 across 270 plate appearances with the Brewers. That allowed the Blue Jays to snag him on the cheap, as they’ll hope he rebounds to something closer to his career line of .243/.327/.451.

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Toronto Blue Jays Breyvic Valera Cavan Biggio Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Travis Shaw Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Blue Jays Notes: Extension Talks, Pre-Arb Salaries, Yamaguchi

By Jeff Todd | March 12, 2020 at 9:07am CDT

Let’s check in on the latest regarding the Blue Jays, all coming via Sportsnet …

  • President Mark Shapiro covered a variety of matters in a recent chat with the Writers Bloc show (audio link). Of particular interest was his discussion of the team’s potential young extension targets. Shapiro obviously wasn’t willing to address specifics, but did indicate that the team is inclined to reach deals where possible. On the possibility of extensions, he said fans can “assume we’ve explored it or are exploring it with every one of our young players that we have a strong belief are going to be good players and here for a long time.” Actually getting a deal done is obviously a different story; there, Shapiro spoke of negotiations as “sharing risk” for the future.
  • Most of the team’s top potential extension targets have little MLB service time, so they’re in the class of players that have no effective control over their salaries. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports, the Jays were able to get agreement on 2020 earnings with all of their pre-arbitration players, rather than being forced to renew certain players who weren’t pleased with what was offered. (Contract renewals are a symbolic gesture but can impact a team’s relationship with a player. We discussed this in a recent MLBTR YouTube video.) While there has been some grumbling around the game, the Jays seem to have earned plaudits for enunciating and sharing a complete list of their salary offers with an explanation for the formula utilized in reaching them. You can find all of the specific Jays salaries in the above link. Budding stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio each landed in the $570K to $580k range. The MLB minimum for the coming season is $563,500.
  • Newly inked righty Shun Yamaguchi isn’t making things easy on his new club — in a good way. As Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes, the former Japanese star has worked through some difficulties to turn in a strong recent outing. As we explored recently, he’s one of many conceivable candidates for the fifth starter job. Nicholson-Smith writes that Trent Thornton remains the front-runner, but the Jays will surely be glad to maintain some competition and feel good about the status of their depth. Yamaguchi, 32, will slide into the pen if he doesn’t crack the rotation.
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Notes Toronto Blue Jays Bo Bichette Cavan Biggio Shun Yamaguchi Trent Thornton Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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