9:19am: Alvarado and the Phillies settled at $3.45MM, tweets Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base.
8:55am: The Phillies and left-hander Jose Alvarado have agreed to a one-year contract, per a team announcement. That avoids an arbitration hearing that had been scheduled for later today. Alvarado, a client of the OL Baseball Group, had filed for a $3.7MM figure, while the Phillies submitted a $3.2MM sum.
The 27-year-old Alvarado (28 in May) originally came to the Phils from the Rays in a three-team deal that saw Philadelphia send lefty Garrett Cleavinger to the Dodgers. It was one of the first swaps president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made upon being hired in Philadelphia and has proven to be a key pickup, as Alvarado has emerged as one of the team’s best relievers.
Over the past two seasons, the flamethrowing Alvarado has averaged 99.6 mph on his sinker and fanned 32% of his opponents while working to a 3.71 ERA. That mark is weighed down a bit by a 2021 season in which Alvarado walked an alarming 18.7% of his opponents, but he pared that number down to 11.2% in 2022 while also upping his strikeout rate to a mammoth 37.9%. This past season’s 3.18 ERA is sharp to begin with, but metrics like FIP (1.92) and SIERA (2.37) feel he’s been even better.
Alvarado has saved seven games for the Phillies and piled up another 38 holds over the past two seasons, cementing himself as one of the organization’s most trusted options in high-leverage settings. He’ll join a high-octane group of relievers in the late innings under manager Rob Thomson, including righty Seranthony Dominguez and offseason acquisitions Gregory Soto and Craig Kimbrel.
The 2022 season will be a crucial one for Alvarado, who’ll be entering his final season of club control. Given his age, elite velocity, strikeout prowess and outstanding ability to miss bats (16.7% swinging-strike rate; 37.3% opponents’ chase rate), Alvarado could position himself as one of the top relievers on the market next offseason with another year like his 2022 campaign.
Walks have long been an issue for the left-hander, but Alvarado had the seventh-highest strikeout rate, fifth-best average velocity on his primary fastball (sinker) and 13th-best swinging-strike rate of the 347 pitchers who pitched at least 50 innings in 2022 (starters included). He also induced grounders on a huge 56.1% of the batted balls against him and yielded just 0.35 homers per nine innings. Command issues notwithstanding, Alvarado has the arsenal to become one of the game’s top relievers.
He’s a great reliever coming off an excellent year, but he has severe command issues. He sounds like a cheaper version of Matt Moore.
Six years younger, four miles per hour more on the heater, 10 percentage points higher in strikeout rate, 13 percentage points higher on the ground-ball rate, two percentage points higher on the swinging-strike rate.
Command is probably worse than Moore overall when looking at the broader track record — even though Moore had a higher walk rate in ’22 — but Alvarado is a markedly better reliever in my eyes.
That’s not a knock on Moore, who I’m surprised is still out there, but Alvarado’s stuff is just on another level (from Moore and from most relievers).
Thanks Steve. I don’t get the commenters that feel the need to present so many judgments without ever having seen someone. And in this case without even resorting to a database, apparently. They are similar in that they both pitch, and are both lefty relievers (at this point in Moore’s career). And both have histories of command issues.
Alvarado sits high 90’s and touches 101 plus at times. Heavy fastball and wipeout slider that still sits upper 90’s…and the change to keep them honest. Moore…is not that. At all.
That’s fair. I haven’t seen him throw. This is a great example of how you have to see a guy pitch to truly judge him. I guess Bref doesn’t show everything. Either way, the main idea here is teams seem to be really interested in Matt Moore, and yet this guy is a superior version in many ways. Imagine how much interest this guy will get next year! It does seem that teams are willing to ignore command issues if you get outs and produce a low ERA. The Phillies also added a former flamethrower in Kimbrel. It’s going to be fun to watch. I was just looking at hits/walks/ERA last year without commenting on pitch types and velocities.
This sort of movement/velo combo feels like it shouldn’t even be possible:
https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1113526059947954176
https://www.mlb.com/video/kyle-tucker-strikes-out-swinging-13d8e4
So, he can just aim down the middle everytime and probably lower walks without significantly increasing hits or homeruns. The only problem is if he actually hits his spot. Those pitches are quite filthy.
Yup – Alvarado is utterly filthy. However, this will be a huge season for him, as he only turned the corner for the last 4-5 months of the year including playoffs.
If he is able to retain most of the gains in his command, then he is going to be able to grab a huge deal as a FA. Tough decision for the Phils at that point…do you bet on him over 4 or 5 years of a deal at a high AAV, or do you try to work on creating the next one?
Cheaper and better
This is so true. Alvarado has elite talent. The Rays thought so but couldn’t unlock it and delat him to Philly. I remember when he arrived the local consesus was that he was a head case with copntrol issues.
That said, the Phillies saw something and were able to point him in the right direction. Zack Wheeler has credited the Phillies pitching coaching/analytics staff with riasing his game and it appears they have done it with Alvarado as well. It speaks as much to Alvarado’s talent as it does to what the Phillies have done with their coaching.
It’s a great time to be a Phillies fan!
Dombrowski has really turned the Phillies organization around, not just the on-field product but especially behind the scenes. Klentak had the right vision but just couldn’t manage a franchise from the top down and it led to prospects being told one thing at one level then getting called up and told a completely different thing at the next level. DD has given the organization a true leader with the experience and track record that demands the respect of those around him, and man is it showing.
Couldn’t agree more about the exciting times ahead for the boys in red.
Both issue too many walks for my taste, but at least Alvarado has the Ks to significantly offset the walks. $3.45 mill. is a good deal if he performs like last year but a manageable cost if he reverts to his former self in terms of free passes.
He’s nothing like Matt Moore. Alvarado is a lefty that throws 100+ consistenly. The Phils seem to have fixed those control issues, but they pop up occasionally. I wouldn’t want to rely on him as the sole closer, but he’s a very solid option.
I get the comparison as command-challenged lefties coming off a great season. But Alvarado is sinker/slider to Moore’s four-seamer/change/curve, and yeah the sheer power of Alvarado’s arsenal just can’t really be matched by Moore.
Again, Moore had an objectively great year, and all three of his pitches were above-average (four-seamer, curve) to plus (changeup), but I have them in different tiers of relievers.
I’d be happy to get Moore on a nice one- or two-year contract and feel fine about him stepping into a setup role, but Alvarado’s the kind of guy who’s one more big season away from moving into the upper echelon of reliever salaries as a free agent. With the movement he gets on a 99-102 mph two-seamer, I don’t understand how anyone ever hits him.
I cannot fathom getting in the box against someone that is able to bring it at 100 plus mph. I know that these hitters are the very best of the best, but that is simply otherworldly.
Adding just a few mph at that speed changes things exponentially, and totally alters the approach to an at bat. The difference between the at bat for someone sitting at 92/93 and someone sitting at 96 was night and day. I cannot imagine trying to hit 101, or adjust to the change at that point. When they have that kind of velo, the options for the batter are very constrained. Do your best to sit on the pitch, and even if you sit on 101 you better hope that he finds the heart of the plate. Just awesome talent to throw that hard.
I agree with this. Moore had a solid 2022 and even impressed some when he was moved to the pen in 21. Moore’s a fine option for a short term deal, but Alvarado, despite the control issues, can be pretty special.
Alvarado cut his walks in half & added 20 more strikeouts in 2022 as compared to 2021 with about the same amount of innings. Saw the dude pitch a few times in 2022. He’s deadly when he’s on.
Am glad he’s in the books and did not go to arb. Hopefully Cotham can work some magic with Soto as well.
Can’t wait for pitchers/catchers to report….steps closer to opening day!
Another reason why I think that really good coaches and player development folks are drastically underpaid, even as the game has really amped up their salaries in the past decade plus. The ability to unlock someone such as an Alvarado changes not only a career, but it changed the character of the back of the pen for the Phils. He went from “oh no, is he going to blow up” to “bring him in to put the game away” in tough situations.
It is all a work in progress, but if they can mirror some of that with Soto and continue to elevate the strengths of the younger arms, what has been an Achilles heel for years for the Phils can turn into a strength. Loving what Cotham and his crew are achieving under DD. Same with Long and the hitters…hearing about him working with Marsh in Arizona all winter was awesome.
I still think about when we lost Davey Lopes (best baserunning coach at that time) over a few thousand a year.
No doubt. You can pay a whole coaching staff and squad of development guys for the same cost as a mediocre player. My guess is that’s why coaching staffs have expanded in recent years. Isn’t it better to put a million into coaching and development rather than signing a mediocre player for $5-$10 million?
When this guy is on, it’s lights out. My buddy is a Phillies fan and he’s always blasting this guy, I’m a mets fan and 95% of the times he gets out of the jam I don’t get it, why do they hate this guy so much
As a Phillies fan, you friend is the odd man out, I believe. Sure, Alvarado has his control issues from time to time, but once he came back from LHV, we was on another level. They sent him one step back to take two steps forward and he ended up taking three.
Now that he’s paired with the likes of Dominguez, Kimbrel, and Strahm, this bullpen just went from really good to flat out nasty (on paper at least).
I was at the game where the Mets (going off memory) blew the Phils out. It may have been the doubleheader in May. Alvarado pitched and was terrible. His ERA was over 8 at that point in the season. Again, going off memory, I believe he was sent down after that game and when he came back, like others have said, he was filthy. I’m crossing my fingers we get that guy back.
Either way, the New York Mets will continue to mash Avocado to a pulp.
Mitch Williams, Jr
It’s really impressive that he can come off the bench for the Pelicans too.