TODAY: According to an MRI, Dunn has a strain in his right subscapularis muscle. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon notes that this same area of the rotator cuff contributed to Dunn’s injury problems in the last two seasons, though Dunn told Sheldon that “luckily, it’s not as bad” as those previous issues. Dunn is scheduled to be examined by an orthopedic surgeon this week
FEBRUARY 23: Dunn will miss a significant portion of camp and could be sidelined for the entirety of spring training, manager David Bell told reporters Thursday (Twitter link via C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer).
FEBRUARY 22: Reds right-hander Justin Dunn experienced some shoulder discomfort late in the offseason, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. While Dunn threw a brief bullpen session last week, he hasn’t returned to a mound since then.
There’s no indication Dunn is battling anything serious. Nevertheless, Nightengale writes that it’s “increasingly likely” he could be delayed by the start of the regular season with his throwing program behind schedule. If he ends up missing time during the season, it’d be the second straight year in which shoulder issues have posed a problem.
Acquired from the Mariners last Spring Training as part of the major trade that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez to the Pacific Northwest, Dunn opened his first season as a Red on the injured list. He didn’t return until early in the season’s second half. The Boston College product started seven games with Cincinnati, struggling to a 6.10 ERA with just a 15.2% strikeout rate and elevated 12.3% walk percentage over 31 innings. He also had a tough time over eight starts with Triple-A Louisville, posting a 6.21 ERA in eight starts there.
That’s obviously a season which the former first-round pick would prefer to put in the rearview mirror. Dunn understandably expressed some frustration with his recent shoulder problem, telling reporters he’d felt strong throughout the bulk of his offseason activity.
It’s a key season for the 27-year-old, who’s looking to stake a claim towards the back of an uncertain rotation. The Reds have Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft in the top three starting spots. Free agent acquisition Luke Weaver seems to have the inside track on the #4 job. There are a few pitchers who could find themselves in the mix for the fifth spot. Former reliever Luis Cessa, journeyman righty Connor Overton and prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could make some starts for the club. Dunn could certainly battle for a job himself, though he’ll first need to get his shoulder back to full strength.
Dunn has started 32 MLB games dating back to 2019. He owns a 4.44 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk rates (19.3% and 14.7%, respectively) in 133 2/3 career innings. Dunn is making $900K for the upcoming season and eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign.
Wow!
Dunn = done?
If he ever does pitch in Coors Field east, it’s going to get ugly.
Good thing reds loaded up on pitchers this offseason
Hopefully the Reds will give Brandon Williamson a good look for one of the last 2 spots in the rotation.
Stoudt just turned 25. Williamson is only a couple months younger. Both are already on the 40-man roster.
I think it’s a lock that one of them is breaking camp with the Reds – and pretty good odds they both make it, even if it’s as part of the pen.
Of course he is, because no one made any contingency plans whatsoever but instead sat on his hands all off-season until camp started and dumpster dove when everyone started having “setbacks” which they very well should have known going in.
Just another friendly reminder that your account name is heartwarming 🙂
Just another friendly reminder that the Reds had/have no chance of fielding a competitive baseball team this year, so don’t be so upset about everything!
YOU CAN PUT IT IN THE BOOKS THAT I’M CRAVEN MOOREHEAD 🙂
I’m always craving some head too
Not me, I have a great wife!
They wouldn’t have to dumpster dive if baseball wasn’t so unfair to these poor widdle small market teams.
Dunn was over Unger and I was over Dunn.
So you see, both Dunn and I were under Oveur, even though I was under Dunn.
Dunn was over Unger, and I was over Dunn.
BUCKSpackersBREWERSwow!! 🙂
dont you call me surely
This Just In, he’s Dunn. You can stick a fork in him.
People in this thread have 80-grade user names. Respect!
I’m pretty sure all management cares about is for Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft to hone their craft until Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte are ready to infuse some competitive life into the lineup.
In the meantime, they just want to keep the roster filled with warm bodies.
Agreed. Lodolo needs the most work imo. 19 hbp in 103 innings? Big problem.
Lodolo is going to have a spectacular season, as is Greene. A lot of those hbp’s were balls in the dirt that hit the batter’s feet. It’s not a real big problem.
They’ll have great seasons, as will Ashcraft, but their win-loss will be ugly with all their leads being blown in the middle innings. It happened last season too.
Their win-loss records won’t be affected if relievers blow the lead. They get no decisions in that event. Of course if teams would just stretch out the top 3 starters to go 7-8 innings instead of 5-6, they would have a lot fewer problems like that. It’s not impossible, I’m not suggesting that pitchers pitch 400-500 innings like in the 1910s, but expecting 230-240 innings from your ace and 200+ from your 2 and 3 starters should not be an odd occurrence. And it would save the bullpen from being exhausted by mid season.
Given the team’s projected lineup, Reds fans won’t need to worry too often about losing leads in the middle innings.
You hit on a pet peeve of this old catcher actually. Pitchers dont get better unless they, you guessed it, pitch. The pitch count geniuses have ruined a lot of good arms in my opinion. Look at all the arm issues. The batters will tell you when a pitcher is done, not a pitch count. His lack of command will tell you when he is done.
Bullpens will be less worn out if you let the starters pitch instead of being babied. The complete game is more rare than a bunt anymore. I think two of them lead the league most years. Guys used to have double digit completegames regularly.
In 1972, Steve Carlton and Gaylord Perry had 59 complete games just between the two of them. In 2019, all 30 teams combined had 45 CGs. In 2021, all 30 teams had 50 CGs (and some were 7 inning CGs). In 2022, it dropped all the way down to 36 CGs and Sandy Alcantara had 6 by himself.
In my opinion, there are two faults. One is babying pitchers. But I think the bigger fault is the expanded roster. There are 13 pitchers on almost every staff and probably 4 of them on average don’t even deserve to be in the major leagues. But managers continue to use them because they are there and getting paid. But it’s probably never going to change because rosters are never going to get smaller again.
The issue now is related to pitchers being asked to throw at max velocity with every pitch. Back when pitchers were throwing 10-15+ CGs per season, their fastballs were averaging 85-89 mph. They could obviously throw harder than that but they would burn out too quickly or injure themselves by doing so. Nowadays, the number of pitchers that throw under 90mph can be counted on two hands. This is why the pitch count is in effect.
Nolan Ryan threw a lot faster than 89 mph and he had 222 career complete games. His fastball would rival the best starters in the league today.
I get what you are saying, but I disagree. Most of the pitchers that throw max effort with every pitch are relievers that throw 10-15 pitches per game. Yes, starters do have a higher average fastball velocity, but they don’t throw it every pitch. I also believe that the reason the effort is ramped up is because of pitch counts not the other way around.
Sandy Koufax sure could have used a pitch count. Instead he had to retire at 32 and couldn’t even lift his arm to comb his hair after a typical 150-pitch game. That may be one reason why the Dodgers were one of, if not the first, teams to go to a 5-man rotation in the early ’70’s.
But should you change a rule based on one outlier like Koufax? There were far more great pitchers in the 60s that had lengthy careers. If one guy broke his leg rounding first base, you aren’t going to change the fundamental idea of base running.
It’s almost like pitchers who throw flat footed and are all arm can’t maintain their careers
Homie droppin strait faxx
All arm better than all thumbs- at least when trying to bake a cake
Justin Dunn is a bright young kid and always rooted for him as a Mariner. I hope he gets it all put together and can remain healthy. (Dang we sent a lot of pitching over in that trade for Winker/Suarez….Williamson, Stoudt, Dunn…be nice to have more pitching depth right now, now I know how the Yankee fans feel.)
Poor kid has everything he needs….just cannot stay out there long enough to put it al together. He had some nice starts in the ‘21 season, showed life on the fastball, legit repertoire, and I remember him pitching especially well with runners on base; showing some mental moxie. It’s a damn shame, man. Hopefully he’ll have better luck going forward, I’m rooting for him.
Not Stoudt, Connor Phillips & yes Mariners ddid send a lot of pitching to Reds in that trade.
The Mets have Dunn well evaluating and selecting the right prospects to ship out in trades (Kelenic, Dunn, etc). Pete Crow-Armstrong isn’t half the prospect Kelenic was, and we all saw how that one turned out. Simeon Woods-Richardson is a failed starter with some upside as a possible late inning reliever. I’m beginning to think the Mets Front Office simply doesn’t like players with hyphenated last names.
Books not closed on Kelenic yet. But we will have a definite answer about him this season.
Off the top of my head – 1.75 years of service, 500+ plate appearances, around a .150 average thus far. You can read/believe all the Seattle sportswriter fluff you want about how this is a “make or break” season for Kelenic (I’ve read it too).
The truth of the matter is, he’s had enough time in the Majors to show SOMETHING that suggests he’ll be an average regular on a first division team. At this point, he’s not even a starter on the Mariners this season. For him to breakthrough, it will take some injuries on their OF depth chart. And a lot of steroids.
Book is closed.
How can you call SWR a failed starter? He hasn’t even pitched a whole game’s worth of innings in the major leagues and had good numbers between Double-A and Triple-A last year. He’s also only 22.
Only from scouting reviews I’ve read. I’ll look for a link.
Just because a scouting report projects him as a long reliever doesn’t mean he’s a failed starter. If that’s the case, then Shane McClanahan is also a failed starter because FanGraphs said “McClanahan was a Top 100 prospect projecting as an elite reliever” in their TLDR about him. FanGraphs’ write-up on Spencer Strider also didn’t paint him optimistically as a starter, calling him a ‘one-pitch guy’, and saying that he needs to improve his other stuff to keep starting.
Until a player proves otherwise, they’re not a failure just because one report projects them in a lesser role.
Duh.
Reds should trade Hunter Greene for 3-4 top prospects. May as well think outside of the box.
Probably in about 3 more years…
And the hamster keeps running in the wheel.
Justin Dunn might be behind schedule. Too bad he wasn’t Justin Thyme. That dude never late
I didn’t get it at first, but then the joke finally registered after a minute. Thanks for the laugh, Dumpster diving theo!!
Perhaps they should try to sign Justin Case!!!
Is he starting to feel like a case of a kid getting money for the first time, and milking it to anyone else? Or just me? Dude seems to have top of rotation potential, but..
Here we go again. Pitching Senzel? Damaged goods?
There will be a trend in discontinuing long toss programs in the near future.
His walk to strikeout rate is atrocious, probably more of a gain then a loss.
So the reds knew when the trade was made with Seattle that Dunn was injured but they didn’t care they were getting damaged goods. So now that he will miss additional time they shouldn’t be surprised that Cincinnati screwed themselves by including Dunn in the trade
You sound surprised. This is the Reds we’re talking about.
I still remember the two damaged goods pitchers the genius Bowden got off the Nationals.
Sounds like Justin’s Dunn for a while…
This just in……he’s done!
So is Adam…but he had a long career!
I literally saw Dunn in possession of a can of “the sticky stuff” in 2021. Do what you will with this information.
This is good for the reds. Dunn gets hammered nearly everytime he’s out there!
He was a good four inning pitcher. Make of that what you will.
Irrelevant , with or without Dunn the Reds will lose at least 95 games.
Damaged goods, this guy will never pitch agaim in the majors, shoulder issues are so difficult to heal.
Betcha he’s out till the AS break at least. All the talent in the world, but none of the heart. Always liked the kid, but something always keeps him out longer. Missin the good old days..rise and grind..
I’ll be surprised if he pitches at all this year. Probably will announce around the break he will need surgery.
Probably Dunn for the season. Should think about a-Justin’ his throwing motion in the future.