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Justin Dunn

Royals, Justin Dunn Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals are in agreement with righty Justin Dunn on a minor league contract, reports Jaylon Thompson of The Kansas City Star. The former first-round pick had been pitching in Triple-A with the White Sox but was released last week.

Dunn signed an offseason minor league deal with Chicago. He had a tough run in Triple-A, allowing a 7.64 ERA across 33 innings. He walked more than 15% of opponents while allowing hard contact on half the batted balls against him. He’d started his first seven appearances before moving to the bullpen. Dunn tossed a scoreless outing in his first relief appearance but gave up seven runs (five earned) over the next 2 1/3 frames and was released.

The 29-year-old last appeared in the majors with Cincinnati in 2022. He battled shoulder problems the following season and was limited to three minor league appearances. That culminated in surgery that cost him the entire ’24 campaign. Dunn has averaged 92.4 MPH in this year’s Triple-A work, which is in line with his velocity from his most recent MLB action. He has 32 big league starts to his name between the Mariners and Reds, posting a 4.44 ERA in 133 2/3 innings.

White Sox Sign Justin Dunn To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have signed right-hander Justin Dunn to a minor league deal, per the team. The CAA client will be in spring training as a non-roster invitee.

Now 29 years old, Dunn was a first-round pick by the Mets in 2016. He ranked among the organization’s top prospect when he was traded to Seattle alongside Jarred Kelenic in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster. The M’s gave Dunn a look in parts of three seasons and got decent results along the way, though Dunn also battled multiple shoulder injuries in his Mariners tenure. Eventually, he was packaged with Brandon Williamson and Jake Fraley in the trade bringing Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker to Seattle.

With the Reds, Dunn only pitched a total of 65 2/3 innings between the minors and big leagues combined. His shoulder was ailing at the time of the trade, but Cincinnati made the swap anyhow. Dunn’s first season in Cincinnati was delayed by that shoulder; the team announced late in spring training that Dunn would miss “months” with a shoulder issue. He wound up pitching 31 innings in the minors and another 31 in the majors that year, logging an identical 6.10 ERA in both settings. Dunn’s 2023 season was again delayed by shoulder woes, and he eventually underwent surgery to repair the anterior shoulder in his right capsule late in 2023. He hasn’t pitched since.

Just a couple weeks ago, Dunn’s camp hosted a showcase for big league clubs. It was always unlikely that he’d land a guaranteed roster spot after such a lengthy layoff, but Dunn will head to a White Sox organization that should have ample opportunity for him next season. He’ll bring a career 4.44 ERA, 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 14.7% walk rate in 133 2/3 innings to Chicago. When healthy, Dunn has averaged 93.7 mph on his heater and paired that offering with an 84 mph slider and 80 mph curveball.

Because of all the time Dunn has spent on a major league injured list, he has four full seasons of service time already. If he makes the White Sox’ roster at any point, he’d get to five years with another 152 days in the majors. At the very least, Dunn has a full slate of minor league options and two seasons of club control remaining. If he’s brought up midseason when there are fewer than 152 days on the calendar, he’d technically be controllable another three years, at minimum. All of that is putting the proverbial cart before the horse, however. First and foremost, Dunn will need to show that his shoulder injury is behind him and make some strides with his longstanding command issues. There’s plenty of former prospect pedigree, but it’s been close to a decade since Dunn was a first-rounder and about five years since he was last considered a top prospect.

Justin Dunn To Hold Showcase For Interested Teams

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Right-hander Justin Dunn is holding a showcase for scouts on Tuesday, according to the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham.  Just a few weeks after his 29th birthday, Dunn is looking to exhibit both his pitching repertoire and his health after missing essentially two full seasons.  Dunn was limited to 3 1/3 innings in the Reds’ farm system in 2023 due to a rotator cuff issue and then a shoulder surgery in September of that year, and he didn’t pitch at all this season while rehabbing from that procedure.

A highly-touted arm during his time at Boston College, Dunn was picked 19th overall by the Mets in the 2016 draft.  His time in New York’s pipeline didn’t last long, as he was one of the headline pieces of the five-player trade package the Mets sent to the Mariners in December 2018 for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.  Back in March 2022, Dunn was part of another prominent deal when Seattle moved him, Jake Fraley, Brandon Williamson, and Connor Phillips to the Reds in exchange for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker.

Dunn was already dealing with shoulder problems at the time of the latter trade, though the Reds were aware and made the deal anyway, perhaps since their primary concern was dumping salary rather than maximizing the player return.  This injury-marred 2022 season saw Dunn post a 6.10 ERA over seven starts and 31 innings for Cincinnati, and he hasn’t since pitched in the majors.  Dunn opted into minor league free agency last winter after the Reds outrighted him off their 40-man roster.

While injuries have thrown a roadblock into Dunn’s career, he had a respectable 3.94 ERA over 102 2/3 innings and 25 starts with the Mariners during the 2019-21 seasons.  That ERA comes with a few asterisks, however, as Dunn has benefited from some good fortune despite shaky peripherals.  A .215 career BABIP has been the biggest helper, since Dunn hasn’t missed many bats (19.3% strikeout rate) and struggled with his control (14.7% walk rate) during his brief MLB career.

Even when Dunn was appearing near the back of top-100 prospect lists, some scouts felt relief pitching was a better path for his big league future than a rotation job.  Dunn might well explore such a role change as a nod to his arm health or simply to better his results, but at this point, he is surely open to whatever contract offers might be on the table.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him land a minor league deal and a Spring Training invitation from this showcase, as he represents a no-risk flier for teams looking for pitching depth.

14 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR, including a list of 29 players last week. The next group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Outfielders

Pitchers

Reds Outright Five Players

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The Reds announced this afternoon that right-handers Vladimir Gutierrez, Alan Busenitz, Justin Dunn, Brett Kennedy, and Connor Overton have all cleared waivers and been assigned outright to the minor leagues. None of the five had previously been announced as having been designated for assignment, though the quintet have all now been removed from the club’s 40-man roster.

Gutierrez, 28, missed the entire 2023 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was a regular member of the Reds rotation during his 2021 rookie campaign, pitching to a roughly league average 4.74 ERA (99 ERA+) with a 5.76 FIP in 114 innings of work across 22 starts. Gutierrez struggled particularly badly down the stretch that season, with a 9.43 ERA and 7.17 FIP in his last six starts of the season. Prior to that awful stretch, Gutierrez had managed a 3.68 ERA and 4.78 FIP that gave him the look of a solid, back-of-the-rotation arm.

It was strong enough performance to earn Gutierrez a spot in the Cincinnati rotation to start his Sophomore campaign, though he struggled badly with a 7.71 ERA and 6.51 FIP in eight starts that saw him removed from the rotation at the end of May that year. Gutierrez made just two more appearances for the Reds in the big leagues that season before going under the knife in early July. Gutierrez eventually made it back onto a professional mound late in the 2023 season, though he struggled to an 8.31 ERA in 4 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this year. Now that he’s off the club’s 40-man roster seems likely that Gutierrez, who is eligible for arbitration as a Super Two player this offseason, will enter free agency this offseason barring the Reds deciding to both add him back to the 40-man roster and tender him a contract.

Busenitz, 33, has the option to elect free agency rather than accept the outright assignment as a player who’s been outrighted previously in his career, and will qualify for minor league free agency next month regardless. A 25th-round pick by the Angels in the 2013 draft, Busenitz made his MLB debut with the Twins back in 2017, pitching out of the club’s bullpen for two seasons with a 4.58 ERA and 5.49 FIP before joining the Reds on a minor league deal this past offseason. Busenitz was shuttled on and off the club’s roster throughout the season, ultimately posting a strong 2.57 ERA across his six appearances.

Dunn, 28, was a first-round pick by the Mets in the 2016 draft before being shipped to the Mariners in a package that also featured Jarred Kelenic in exchange for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. Dunn made his big league debut for the Mariners back in 2019 and pitched to a 3.94 ERA in 102 2/3 innings of work for the club over three seasons before being traded to Cincinnati in the deal that sent Jesse Winker to Seattle. Dunn struggled badly in 31 innings with the Reds last year, posting a 6.10 ERA in 31 innings before missing the entire 2023 campaign due to a shoulder issue that required surgery in September. Like Gutierrez, Dunn will be eligible for minor league free agency unless the Reds add him back to the 40-man roster and tender him a contract in the coming weeks.

Kennedy, 29, has been outrighted previously in his career, allowing him to elect free agency rather than accept an outright assignment. Like Busenitz, he figures to qualify for minor league free agency next month either way. Kennedy made his big league debut with the Padres in 2018 after the club selected him in the 11th round of the 2015 draft. He struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 innings with San Diego that year and didn’t receive another big league opportunity until this year, when he posted a 6.50 ERA across 18 innings with the Reds.

Overton, 30, has also been outrighted before in his career and will have the option to elect free agency rather than accept his outright assignment, with minor league free agency likely looming next month regardless of his decision. A 15th-round pick by the Marlins in the 2014 draft, Overton made his major league debut with the Blue Jays back in 2021 before being claimed off waivers by the Pirates that September, only to hit free agency after being outrighted off the roster that offseason. With a 4.70 ERA in 15 1/3 innings of work in his rookie season, Overton joined the Reds on a minor league deal and pitched well in 2022, with a 2.73 ERA in six appearances, including four starts. Things came off the rails for Overton in 2023, however, as he struggled to a 11.45 ERA in three starts with the Reds before ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery back in May.

Justin Dunn To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Reds right-hander Justin Dunn will undergo surgery to repair the anterior capsule of his throwing shoulder, the team informed reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). The club didn’t provide a timetable but it’d seem likely he’ll at least miss the remainder of the 2023 season.

Dunn has been on the injured list for the entire season. The former first-round pick has been battling shoulder concerns for a couple years. Dunn had shoulder soreness (of which Cincinnati was aware at the time) even before the Mariners dealt him to the Reds in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suárez trade coming out of the lockout. He lost the first half of 2022 rehabbing, returned to make seven starts, then was shut back down last September.

The injuries persisted over the offseason, as Dunn continued to battle a strain in his rotator cuff area. The Reds sent him out on a minor league rehab stint a couple weeks ago. That raised some hope he might make it back to the mound, even if just in short stints, but he’s unfortunately still not past the shoulder woes.

Dunn owns a 4.44 ERA in 32 big league starts. He’s making $900K this year after avoiding arbitration. He’d likely be in line for the same amount next season if the Reds tender him a contract, though that doesn’t seem assured since Cincinnati would have to carry him on the 40-man roster all offseason. He’ll surpass the four-year service threshold this year and would be eligible for arbitration through 2025 if the Reds keep him on the roster.

NL Central Notes: Suzuki, Reds, Cruz

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The Cubs surprised much of the baseball world with their play in recent weeks, which pushed them to add third baseman Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline rather than deal away rental players like Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman. With the focus now firmly on a push toward making the playoffs in 2023, the club appears to be shortening the leash of struggling players.

That includes outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who the Cubs spent nearly $100MM to add to the club’s roster prior to the 2022 campaign between Suzuki’s five-year, $85MM contract and the posting fee owed to the Hiroshima Carp as payment for Suzuki’s services. In 111 games with the Cubs last year, Suzuki played solidly in his rookie season, with a .262/.336/.433 slash line that was good for a wRC+ of 116. Suzuki began the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to an oblique issue, but got off to a fantastic start when he was back in action, slashing .293/.385/.487 with a 12.6% walk rate in 174 trips to the plate through the end of May.

Unfortunately, Suzuki’s offense has cratered since then, as he’s mustered just a .214/.281/.310 slash line in 210 plate appearances since the calendar flipped to June. That’s brought his overall campaign below league average by measure of wRC+ (96) in 2023, and while he’s played excellent defense in right field, Cubs manager David Ross indicated to reporters (including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma) recently that Suzuki would not be an everyday player going forward until he gets things back on track. “He knows he needs to work on some things,” Ross said of Suzuki, “It’s hard to do that in-game. We’ll give him some time, and he’ll be back in there when we feel like he can help us win games.”

It seems that journeyman outfielder Mike Tauchman, who came to the Cubs on a minor league deal during the offseason but has impressed with a .277/.371/.431 slash line (121 wRC+) in 238 trips to the plate since joining the roster back in May, will receive the lion’s share of playing time in right field, with Suzuki making occasional starts when he or Ian Happ have a day off or when Cody Bellinger moves from center field to first base. The Cubs are 2.5 games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central and 1.0 game back of Cincinnati for the final NL Wild Card spot entering play today.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Reds right-handers Justin Dunn and Vladimir Gutierrez both have yet to throw a pitch in the majors this season, spending the entire campaign on the 60-day IL due to a shoulder strain and Tommy John surgery, respectively. Though both righties have been starting pitchers throughout their careers to this point, each figures to come out of the bullpen upon returning to the big leagues, manager David Bell told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Gutierrez had a solid rookie season with the Reds in 2021 during which he pitched to a roughly league average ERA of 4.74 (99 ERA+) but struggled badly in 36 2/3 innings of work last year prior to going under the knife in July of last year. Dunn, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who has yet to find success a starter in the big leagues, with a 4.44 ERA and 6.23 FIP in 133 2/3 career innings of work in the majors.
  • Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz looks to be a rising star and one of the most exciting youngsters in the game today, with a 108 wRC+, 13 steals and 19 home runs in 410 trips to the plate so far in his career. The 6’7” shortstop was expected by many to challenge for the 30/30 club in his first full season as a big leaguer in 2023, but was unfortunately sidelined by an ankle injury just days into the 2023 campaign. While he won’t be able to play in his first full major league season until 2024, he could still finish the 2023 campaign in the majors nonetheless, as Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington told MLBNetwork Radio’s Jim Duquette that Cruz is expected to begin a rehab assignment later this month, with a goal of returning to the majors in September. The Pirates have started a youth movement while Cruz has been on the shelf, and he’ll be greeted by fellow youngsters Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Quinn Priester upon his return to the big league club.

Reds Designate Nick Solak For Assignment

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves prior to today’s season opener. They have selected the contracts of right-hander Derek Law, left-hander Alex Young and infielder Jason Vosler. To open places on the 40-man roster, right-handers Tejay Antone and Justin Dunn were placed on the 60-day injured list, while infielder/outfielder Nick Solak was designated for assignment. Additionally, infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel and first baseman Joey Votto were placed on the 10-day injured list while right-handers Tony Santillan, Lucas Sims and Luke Weaver were placed on the 15-day injured list.

Solak, 28, was once a highly-touted prospect who had a strong debut with the Rangers in 2019. He hit .293/.393/.491 that year in 33 games but has struggled since and now carries a career batting line of .252/.327/.372. That amounts to a wRC+ of 93, indicating he’s been about 7% below league average. Concerns about his second base defense also pushed him into the outfield corners, putting more pressure on his bat to provide value. He was traded to the Reds in November but had a rough spring, getting just two hits in 24 plate appearances. Despite his rough showing of late, he might get a shot elsewhere based on his prospect pedigree. He also still has an option remaining and can be stashed in the minors by any team willing to give him a 40-man roster spot.

Young, 29, spent most of last year with the Giants, posting a 2.36 ERA over 25 appearances with an 18.1% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate and 54.2% ground ball rate. Despite that solid campaign, he was non-tendered at season’s end and landed a minor league deal with the Reds. He’ll give the club a second lefty in the bullpen alongside Reiver Sanmartin. The right-handed Law will also join that bullpen, which was reported earlier this week.

Vosler, 29, got into 77 games with the Giants over the past two seasons, hitting .228/.306/.421 for a wRC+ of 100. Like Young, he was also non-tendered by the Giants and got a minor league deal from the Reds. He’s played all four infield positions in his career, as well as the outfield corners, giving Cincinnati a versatile player to plug in around their younger players as needed.

Turning to the IL placements, none of them are particularly surprising. Dunn has a shoulder injury that will keep him out of action for a couple of months. Antone has a flexor strain in his forearm that may keep him out until the All-Star break. Votto is still recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery, Weaver is battling forearm discomfort, while Santillan and Sims are dealing with lingering back issues.

Reds’ Justin Dunn To Miss Start Of 2023 Season

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Reds right-hander Justin Dunn “will be shut down for a couple of months” in order to recover from inflammation in the right subscapularis muscle of his rotator cuff, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes.  The shutdown comes on the recommendation of a specialist, and it doesn’t appear as though surgery will be required.

While that counts as good news for Dunn, it will mark the third straight season that he has missed considerable time due to shoulder problems.  The result was only 50 1/3 innings for Dunn with the Mariners in 2021, and then 31 frames in 20222, his first season in Cincinnati.  With the injuries obviously playing a factor, Dunn posted an underwhelming 4.65 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate, and 12.9% walk rate over those 81 1/3 combined innings.

As Dunn is now entering his age-27 season and his fifth MLB campaign, he has yet to really lift off following his selection as the 19th overall pick of the 2016 draft.  The Mets were Dunn’s original team, but the righty was included as part of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster trade with Seattle in December 2018, and was then part of another prominent deal last March when the Reds sent Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker to the Mariners.

Though cutting payroll was the most significant factor in that trade from Cincinnati’s perspective, obtaining a former top-100 prospect and a big league-ready starter in Dunn obviously helped the Reds sign off on that particular swap.  More than a year after that deal, Dunn’s future as a potential member of the Reds rotation is still uncertain, which isn’t ideal for either Dunn or a team going through a rebuilding period.

While there’s some fluidity involved in Dunn’s recovery, if he doesn’t get back to baseball activities until May, he might not be fully ramped up and ready to start games until perhaps late June or even into the second half of the season.  It is possible Cincinnati could bring Dunn back as a reliever in order to shorten his recovery time, just to get him into action and get some innings under his belt in 2023, before then stretching him back out as a starter next spring.  More will be known when Dunn is re-examined down the road, and if there are any setbacks in his recovery, surgery might yet be an option as an answer to his ongoing shoulder injuries.

Reds’ Justin Dunn Could Miss All Of Spring Training With Shoulder Issue

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TODAY: According to an MRI, Dunn has a strain in his right subscapularis muscle.  MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon notes that this same area of the rotator cuff contributed to Dunn’s injury problems in the last two seasons, though Dunn told Sheldon that “luckily, it’s not as bad” as those previous issues.  Dunn is scheduled to be examined by an orthopedic surgeon this week

FEBRUARY 23: Dunn will miss a significant portion of camp and could be sidelined for the entirety of spring training, manager David Bell told reporters Thursday (Twitter link via C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

FEBRUARY 22: Reds right-hander Justin Dunn experienced some shoulder discomfort late in the offseason, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. While Dunn threw a brief bullpen session last week, he hasn’t returned to a mound since then.

There’s no indication Dunn is battling anything serious. Nevertheless, Nightengale writes that it’s “increasingly likely” he could be delayed by the start of the regular season with his throwing program behind schedule. If he ends up missing time during the season, it’d be the second straight year in which shoulder issues have posed a problem.

Acquired from the Mariners last Spring Training as part of the major trade that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez to the Pacific Northwest, Dunn opened his first season as a Red on the injured list. He didn’t return until early in the season’s second half. The Boston College product started seven games with Cincinnati, struggling to a 6.10 ERA with just a 15.2% strikeout rate and elevated 12.3% walk percentage over 31 innings. He also had a tough time over eight starts with Triple-A Louisville, posting a 6.21 ERA in eight starts there.

That’s obviously a season which the former first-round pick would prefer to put in the rearview mirror. Dunn understandably expressed some frustration with his recent shoulder problem, telling reporters he’d felt strong throughout the bulk of his offseason activity.

It’s a key season for the 27-year-old, who’s looking to stake a claim towards the back of an uncertain rotation. The Reds have Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft in the top three starting spots. Free agent acquisition Luke Weaver seems to have the inside track on the #4 job. There are a few pitchers who could find themselves in the mix for the fifth spot. Former reliever Luis Cessa, journeyman righty Connor Overton and prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could make some starts for the club. Dunn could certainly battle for a job himself, though he’ll first need to get his shoulder back to full strength.

Dunn has started 32 MLB games dating back to 2019. He owns a 4.44 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk rates (19.3% and 14.7%, respectively) in 133 2/3 career innings. Dunn is making $900K for the upcoming season and eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign.

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