Giants Interested In Justin Verlander

With the Giants in pursuit of at least a wild card berth and maybe the NL West crown, San Francisco is looking to make some additions at the trade deadline.  At least one of those possibilities is a big name, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that the Giants are one of the clubs interested if Justin Verlander opts to waive his no-trade clause to join another team.

The 45-51 Mets are 6.5 games behind the Phillies for the final NL wild card slot, and four other teams sit between Philadelphia and New York in the wild card standings.  While the Mets have a 9-5 record thus far in July, they may already be in too deep a hole to mount a serious charge at the postseason, and it looks like the club will be sellers in some respect at the deadline barring a big winning streak between now and August 1.  Given the Mets’ record payroll, they might well wait until close to the last minute before the deadline to determine the extent (if at all) of their selloff, as the Amazins might only look to move pending free agents, or they could make a more significant move in dealing a controlled asset like Verlander.

One of the top players available in the 2022-23 offseason, Verlander signed a two-year, $86.66MM deal to join the Mets, and the contract also contains a $35MM vesting option for 2025 (Verlander gets that $35MM player option if he tosses at least 140 innings in 2024).  A teres major strain near the end of Spring Training delayed Verlander’s Mets debut until May 4, and while there was some rust over his first month of action, Verlander has more recently started to display his usual form.  The right-hander has a 1.74 ERA over his last five starts and 31 innings, though his strikeout rate (20.8%) and walk rate (10.4%) haven’t yet normalized.

These numbers, the large salary, and Verlander’s age (40) stand out as red flags for a possible trade suitors, though these concerns are also perhaps simply outweighed by Verlander’s incredible track record.  It was just last season that Verlander won the AL Cy Young Award and helped lead the Astros to a World Series title, and even his recent outings suggest that he has plenty left in the tank.  An argument can also be made that Verlander might benefit from a change of scenery, with the ideal scenario being his last stint as a trade candidate.  Verlander was already pitching well for the Tigers in 2017 but his performance was kicked into a higher gear when Detroit moved him to Houston on August 31, resulting in Verlander playing a big part in the Astros’ first championship.

It is worth noting that Verlander waived a previous no-trade clause in his Tigers contract to accommodate that 2017 deal, though the Astros agreed to waive a $22MM vesting option that was included for the 2020 season.  If Verlander was open to a trade this summer, he might first insist that his potential $35MM in 2025 get turned into a player option right away, without the vesting threshold.  Of course, this is just speculative and Verlander might be willing to waive his no-trade protection entirely to join a contender, but it is an example of the leverage that he holds in whatever trade talks the Mets might explore with other teams.

Even taking on an extra $35MM in 2025 wouldn’t necessarily be an obstacle for the Giants, who don’t have much in the way of long-term payroll commitments on their books.  Acquiring Verlander would also represent a win in the team’s longstanding search to land a face-of-the-franchise superstar, after coming up short on signing Aaron Judge in the offseason and having their deal with Carlos Correa scuttled due to medical concerns.  This isn’t the first time San Francisco has been linked to Verlander, as the Giants were one of the many teams who had scouts attending Verlander’s showcase when he was a free agent in the 2021-22 offseason.

Despite the high price tag of Verlander’s contract, the length of the deal fits the Giants’ general preference for shorter-term contracts, especially for pitchers.  Most of San Francisco’s current rotation consists of veteran starters on two-year or three-year contracts, and since Alex Wood and (pending a club option) Alex Cobb might both free agents this winter, trading for Verlander would provide a top-shelf upgrade both for this year’s playoff run and at least through the 2024 campaign.

Returning to the financial aspect, it is possible that Verlander’s salary might not even be the Giants’ problem, should the Mets agree to pay most or all of his salary in order to land a better prospect return.  This would represent a larger-scale version of the strategy the Mets have already employed in earlier moves this summer (trading Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and temporarily acquiring Chris Flexen from the Mariners), as owner Steve Cohen has no issue in spending big, whether that means acquiring MLB talent or in using the payroll to accommodate the acquisition of premium young talent.  Considering that the Mets still plan to contend in 2024, they would naturally want some big league-ready help if they moved a front-of-the-rotation arm like Verlander.