The Red Sox announced a number of moves before tonight’s series opener with Oakland. Infielder Yu Chang is back from the 60-day injured list and starter James Paxton returned from paternity leave. In corresponding moves, infielder David Hamilton was optioned while reliever Kaleb Ort was placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation. Boston designated reliever Ryan Sherriff for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot for Chang’s return.
Chang has been down since late April after fracturing the hamate bone in his wrist. He’s expected to assume the primary shortstop role now that he’s healthy, at least until Trevor Story is able to return from the internal brace procedure on his elbow. Chang steps back into the starting lineup tonight, hitting ninth against A’s southpaw Sam Long.
Boston has used a revolving door at shortstop in Story’s absence. They haven’t found any kind of consistency. Boston shortstops have hit .214/.284/.328 on the season. They’re 25th in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging. Chang contributed to those offensive struggles, hitting only .136/.174/.341 through 47 trips to the plate. He has a modest offensive track record at the big league level, but the Sox will hope he can at least stabilize things defensively.
Hamilton had picked up 10 starts at the position since receiving his first big league call a few weeks ago. The 25-year-old infielder hit .138/.265/.207 to begin his career. He’ll head back to Triple-A Worcester, while Chang’s return pushes Sherriff off the roster entirely.
Boston signed Sherriff to an offseason minor league contract and selected his contract two months ago. The left-hander made five big league appearances, allowing two runs in 6 2/3 innings. He’s now up to 51 MLB frames over parts of five seasons, putting together a 3.53 ERA despite a middling 18.5% strikeout rate.
Sherriff has had a decent season in Worcester, allowing 2.82 earned runs per nine while fanning just under 26% of opposing hitters. He’d unfortunately been on the minor league injured list since late June and was reinstated yesterday. The Sox will have a week to trade him or put him on waivers.
Reds need to jump on this lefty. Have Law, need Sherriff to enforce it.
I see they got a Farmer and Young working in the fields. Young might be too young to be doing that.
They got Steer for cattle farming too
Steer is doing well and that’s no bull.
cguy – Then the Reds would need Rougned for the trifecta.
Sherriff enforcing Law and Odor.
“Yu shot the Sheriff”, but Yu did not shoot the deputy.
Ort on the fake DL to keep roster space
Ham – Of course you’re likely right. He’ll probably eventually be pitching in minor league rehab games to get his issues worked out.
As much as I can’t stand seeing him on the mound, I do give him credit for chopping off all his hair to donate for kids with cancer. He’s not a good pitcher, but he’s a good guy.
If this guy had anything left, he’d still be the “Sheriff” of the Tampa Bay Rays.
There’s no Sherriff in town.
Once a reliever leaves Tampa, he has generally been used up and is of very little value.
But did they designate the deputy?
They should send him to Rock Ridge, they need a Sherriff.
In some ways this move is surprising, when you consider there’s some much worse arms still in the pen.
Scott? Jacques? Garza?
I’d have looked twice at dumping one of them first over Sherriff, even accounting fornthebsample size of all of them. You still need more 40 man moves, I get it, so they may also be on the hot seat, but at least go with the guy who has had better results for now.
Jacques is fine for lower leverage situations. Funky arm slot and decent stuff, plus he can be optioned, so he’s not going anywhere
Soxx – What exactly makes Jacques fine?
Not the 6.23 ERA
Not the 1.615 WHIP
If his stuff was decent, I just don’t see the Pirates cutting him loose like they did.
Agreed Fever. Other than berradino however, don’t see any lefty relievers the team has (other than Murphy) who are worth a roster spot.
Probably saw the good news today where Schreiber.. RH may be, but went 2/3 inning in his 1st rehab game. he’s been missed and not among the crowd myself who wants lefties on the roster just to have a cpl. if they are bad, no matter which side they throw from.
Funny how releasing players puts the fear of god in them
Options don’t matter when you aren’t an effective mlb-caliber reliever. He’s still not worthy of a 40-man spot.
So, in the example of Jacques, what makes him any more effective in a low leverage situation than say keeping Sherriff?
In the big picture you shouldn’t be arguing for or against ANY of these guys. But, there’s a 40-man crunch, and, big-picture, looming rule 5 liabilities again in a few months. So, why not keep the guy who has had better results is the question?
Jacques’ 1.79 FIP may be what is keeping him around.
Here’s the thing about fip… it’s formula calculated via:
(13*HR + 3*(BB+HBP) – 2*SO)/IP + Constantlg
What it means is that a pitcher who doesn’t give up hrs, and doesn’t give up walks by pitching to contact, especially if they take advantage of the strikeout-heavy lineups teams are selling out on for power, well, it’ll be skewed.
He gives up a lot of hits, and, they excluded bases reached on errors by the infield behind him. That FIP, to me, is something of an oddity based on how the metric is calculated – not a sign he’s better than his numbers indicate.
It also means fip even more than some other metrics is susceptible to small sample size bias.
You may be right though, the slide rule brigade probably told bloom what to do and he blindly did it, not applying some baseball common sense to the decision.
So, only the statistics you pay attention to are reliable? Every statistic is an “oddity based on how the metric is calculated”.
I wouldn’t say I only go for ‘reliable’ metrics because many of the advanced statistics do have some degree of variance.
But, when there is a metric that is SO FAR out of bounds based on a clearly identifiable flaw, yes, I discount it in that instance and that player.
Here’s another example. In the offseason I took a lot of flak for arguing that the 162 game averages on Casas were baloney, and, the HR rate he logged wouldn’t even come close to standing up over a regular season. I pointed to how the balls he hit were so called ‘cheap shots’ based on the schedule boston played in the limited time he was called up leading to OF dimensions he would comparatively seldom encounter over a full season vs the frequency in his late 2022 schedule, then I added in the incidence rate of where there was evidence of older, more ‘juiced’ baseballs being used at those locations because of the Aaron Judge pursuit of the record and the press mlb wanted to generate.
My conclusion which was met with ridicule and skepticism was that Casas wouldn’t show the ‘power’ and batting average everyone was claiming he would roll through the season with.
Well, fast forward to this year and Casas has not seen that level of power that the metrics predicted he would have, nor has he hit the HRs that were predicted. Again, because in his particular situation, the data was flawed.
Analytics are fine, advanced stats are fine, but, you’ve got to look one layer deeper on anything that is based on a calculation instead of a counting stat. Sometimes it can be biased in an unreasonable way to where it doesn’t have the predictive value you’d hope or that it was intended for.
FIP only considers what the pitcher can control. ERA considers what a pitcher can control and can’t control. You have not addressed this difference. Once a ball is put into play and is not a HR, the pitcher cannot fully control the outcome as the defense may be above average or below average and the ball may take a lucky or unlucky bounce. Pitchers also cannot control the variation between official scorers. The same play can be scored a hit by one official scorer and an error by another. FIP seems like a more useful way to compare pitchers to me. ERA seems more flawed to me.
Suit, pitchers can control the number of hits they give up which are not errors to a degree by limiting the number of balls put into play. FIP gives no weight to hits allowed, it’s excluded entirely from the calculation which is its shortcoming. If a fielder with normal effort would’ve gotten to the ball, but didn’t, it’s an error and impacts ERA (in a reductive manner on counted runs that result in most cases) anyways.
A better pitcher misses bats. A pitcher who relies on the defense to bail him out and generate an out after expecting the ball to be put in play in my mind is not as good of a pitcher as the guy who was able to keep the batter from having the ball in play and gets him out.
Look at the math in the formula, and the weighting in an absurd context: A pitcher can give up up no hits, 4 walks in an inning of work, with 1k and 2 sac flies. He could give up 3 runs, all earned in the process. His fip would be ((13*0) + (3x(4+0)) – (2×1) / 1 +constant. That’s equal to 12-2 / 1+constant. Or, 10/1+constant
Vs a pitcher who gave up 1 hr, no walks, in an inning of work, no strikeouts. 1 run, earned.
He would have an fip calculation of (13×1) + (3x(0+0) – (2×0) / 1+constant, in other words, 13/1+constantant.
So the pitcher who is solely responsible for giving up 3 runs, issues all the walks, and, gave up the contact with the sac flys where the defense recorded its out, did its job perfectly aside from the pitcher allowing the batter to put the ball in play, he would have a LOWER FIP than the guy who only gave up contact once, and allowed 1/3 of the runs by factors entirely in the pitchers control.
Doesn’t make sense right? And that’s the issue with FIP. It’s not entirely fair for a pitcher to both rely on the defense to bail him out, but then disclaim the fact he is the only reason the defense needs to make a play to begin with. That’s my gripe, it’s like a stat that let’s you have your cake and eat it too. So it needs to be taken with a grain of salt and not given as much weight in those circumstances when the data going shows it will hame an implicit bias.
There are times I like FIP, but not when the data is so obviously skewed.
@GA
Yeah. If you understand the metrics and how they’re calculated you can use critical thinking skills to determine when they hold weight. For example, extreme ground ball pitchers—FIP
Is completely useless.
Bstrowman9 – and that’s probably my biggest gripe with all of the so called ‘advanced metrics’ is.
Not all people even know what they represent, just that certain ranges are good, and others are bad. And some people just use them to compare unequal things, such as why a 1.5war 3B they think is a better more productive player than a 1war DH, not realizing that war is only good to establish comparative performances within the same position due to its weighting. Or, why war isn’t great for most pitchers.
All metrics are good at somethings, bad at others, and contain a built in bias they don’t warn you of on the surface. So you get into the weeds a lot because things don’t say what some people think they do – a general criticism, not leveled at anyone in this thread or in particular, just an observation.
GA: Your extreme example does not change my mind. I see bad defense and bad official scoring costing pitchers quite often which can drastically affect a pitcher’s ERA.
FIP gives no weight to hits allowed,
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It does, indirectly. Since it accounts for HRs, Ks and walks, by default, it accounts for hits, since everything else is BABIP, and BABIP is a pretty consistent ~.300.
suit – You’re very right about bad official scoring.
Not sure if you heard this, official scorers were instructed by MLB to award hits whenever possible so as to give the impression there is more offense in MLB. Sox announcers have been livid about the ridiculous number of errors that were scored as hits. Pitchers certainly can’t be happy about it.
Fever: Wow! No, I hadn’t heard that. Thanks.
They shot the sherif but they did not shoot the deputy.
This thumbnail image is terrifying
Release Kike
I wish
Sheriff don’t like it rocking the casbah
Analytics-who needs Kike on their team? Will they provide a prospect or consider payroll relief?
Who do the analysts say the Sox should move? Paxton, Hanley, Verdugo, Duval, Casas, Turner?
In the next 10 days if Schreiber seems like himself–Trade Hanley move Martin to close and Schreiber to set-up.
I don’t know what position you play Ceddanne but he appears to be good prospect. Kind of reminds me of Wander Franco from a few years back. Or if you feel he has all that Verdugo has do you move Duggie for a pitching prospect?
What’s the point of waiting until the Trade Deadline–“Just do it.”
The Red Sox are 3 games out of the Wild Card. Not sure they are selling as of now.
Suit, let’s ask a different question, not what bloom is likely to do, but what he should do?
Yes, you can say ‘anything happens in october’ but think detached for a second. If the goal is to build a sustained winner, and that’s a justification for all the poor seasons lately, ask yourself, what goes the furthest towards building the best, sustained winner possible? A deeply flawed team that, even IF they get a wild card, lack the depth and defense to get much done where bats go ice cold regularly and often?
You’ve got guys who ARE free agents at years end. JT only needs 1yr/7m to be money ahead of not opting out. After his season, barring drastic injury, in which case he’s not performing for you next year anyways, he opts out. So call him an expiring deal. So is Kiki, so is Paxton, so is Kluber. Jansen is been 50% worse this year than his historical average, and his WHIP is a good .300 higher too. And we’ve seen him struggle more than your 17m man should, although he has one more year left. Think where else that mkney could go next year. Duvall is expiring.
Given the deep flaws the team has, wouldn’t you consider the prospect haul you could take back from moving those guys? Sure, some, especially kluber, aren’t worth a lot. But it’s more than you’ve got. So ship them out, contracts paid, to maximize your return. Maybe Verdugo too, sell HIGH and capitalize on his extra year left.
With an OF (projected) of yoshi/duran/rafaela/4th refsnyder, and a chance to add someone else if you wanted as insurance, that’s a playable group. Then you’re hopefully stacked for next year with depth and more of those prospects at positions the farm currently lacks.
Jansen can be replaced by moving Martin and Whitlock into the high leverage/closing roles.
And if there’s a taker on dalbec, so be it. But really, we’ve seen it prior years, what served the sox more, keeping the guys who were on expiring deals/expendable, or, would a return on them have advanced the long term goals? To this point, it’s been shown to be the latter hasnt ir?
GA: With the whiny, out-of-touch-with-reality fanbase, it is hard to say what they will do. I think they will probably at least trade Duvall. Dalbec could be traded for sure. I agree they most likely should sell. I think the fans that didn’t like not signing Bogaerts will also not like selling at the trade deadline.
I agree they most likely should sell. However, I think the fans that didn’t like not signing Bogaerts will also not like selling at the trade deadline.
@suit. are we talking the big contract Bogey got or the do-able contract that he was more than happy with before the low ball offer?
If it is the big contract, I don’t know anyone who is upset about not signing that.
Other than that, I’m with you and GA…Sox should be selling, But will Henry allow a sell off if he can cash-in on post season tickets, even if they are blown out in the first round?
All depends on the decisions made on the return.
If they pick up more ‘dh-only” types, then, sure gripes are reasonable.
If they center their return on failed prospects and injured players, like cordero and mondesi? Sure people will complain.
But if they target the weaknesses on the team for controllable players – SS, SP, RP (can never have too much) amd C, I think the reasonable minds would be happy.
I think even one or two change of scenery types could be tolerated, as long as the focus isn’t on ONLY buy-low, oft injured, change of scenery guys.
“Are we taking the big contract Bogey got or the do-able contract that he was more than happy with before the low ball offer?”
You mean the pure fantasy scenario many Sox fans convinced themselves was real because it’s what they wanted to happen more than being anything that was ever likely to happen? Bogey picked Boras as his agent for a reason, and it wasn’t to leave dollars on the table.
DBH: Unless someone can produce a quote from Bogaerts from before he signed with SD saying how much he would have taken to stay in Boston, I don’t believe it. He was smart to test free agency and see if someone would make an insane offer. He could still go back to Boston after testing free agency. It may turn out to be great move to not sign him. His numbers have taken a downturn this year.
GA: I am not sure returns are going to be big for two-month rentals, even for a guy like Paxton. How much is two months of Paxton worth?
Well, let’s look at this scenario. Speaking for the Astros, their GM Dana said they’d consider moving Gilbert if multiple years of team control were part of a deal.
They need a lefty bat. They also need a starter.
If you combined Verdugo with Paxton, and centered your return on Gilbert plus Diaz. AND you paid down the rest of the salary, even if you needed to throw in something else on top to balance things out. all of a sudden things sound promising for the return.
I don’t think they exactly hang up on you because Verdugo has that extra control. Maybe they even ask to send back Brantley and the balance of his roughly 6m remaining in dead money given he’s a FA after this season, and toss in Mcguire to balance the catching situation. Who knows.
At the same time, I dont think such a bundle of higher end players is likely as you get more selling them piecemeal.
There’s a shortage of sellers, and, at the very least the sox have some nice pieces.
Let’s see what happens. I hope they can get good returns. They could afford to take on some salary as they are about $11M below the luxury tax threshold. I’m not sure the Red Sox want Drew Gilbert. They could have drafted him last year and they passed on him.
That’s true. But, it’s next level depth. And, he could develop some and become a later trade chip himself, you never know.
Most drafting is focused on best player available at the time. Doesn’t mean a guy you pass on has no value, just that you think someone else had more.
It’s this roster is such a mess. Duvall really needs to go. Duran emerged as a legitimate everyday player, except he’s blocked amd its a real struggle to get everyone playing time. Kiki really doesn’t have a role either. Too many OF, he hadn’t been hitting, he can’t reinforce SS, he needs a change of scenery.
The rest become judgment calls.
Another team that’s an even better trade partner for BOS is CIN. They need rotation help, and, OF help. BOS has a glut of outfielders and CIN has plenty of infielders
@Suit, if it is true that Bogey was never agreeable to a more reasonable extension, then yes, I agree with you. No way Bogey is worth what he was signed for in the offseason.
But then again, I’m not too keen on the Devers’ money, either.
So, all in all, I agree with you and GA. Like I said, Sox should sell
For a team with WS aspirations, he is worth a lot.
DBH: I did find this quote which I’ve posted here before where Bogaerts said he wanted to be a free agent:
“Before signing his first extension, Bogaerts told his agent, Scott Boras, that he wanted to stay in Boston. This time, though, he expressed a desire to explore free agency.
“I understand myself better,” Bogaerts told Boras. “I have more of a view of free agency. I want to look into it and see what’s available for me. I want to win, and I want to win now.”
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35265339/mlb-free-agency-r…
Joe: Yeah. If they can get two decent prospects for two months of Vazquez, they should be able to get a good return for Paxton. A bidding war would be nice.
Suit – you’re missing this part of the article just prior to where you quote:
“On last season’s Opening Day, Bogaerts expressed his disappointment in not getting an extension done with the Red Sox, and he played out the season knowing he would be a free agent at the end of it.”
The quote you’re seeing was after negotiations broke down, after bloom insulted him with the lowball extension offer, and after he made up his mind he was being disrespected by this front office.
That’s an important distinction, it’s like something you say once you realize your marriage is irreconcilably broken, and resign your self to looking forwards to a new and different life with other opportunities.
GA: That is not a quote from Bogaerts. If you want me to believe anything, I need a quote from Bogaerts with a dollar amount he would have signed for. All you pointed out was him supposedly saying he was disappointed he did not get an extension. That is standard public relations. Bogaerts has never used the word disrespected. You have nothing coming out of Bogaerts mouth supporting what you are saying.
@Suit. Awesome. Thanks, I had heard otherwise but never saw a quote either way. Clears up a lot for me!
Chears!
will Henry allow a sell off if he can cash-in on post season tickets, even if they are blown out in the first round?
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That won’t be a consideration. The playoffs are a crapshoot. If we make it, it is just as easy to washout in round 1 as it is to make it to the ALCS. Last year, the worse record won 7 of the 13 series. In 2021, the worst record won 4 out of 8. In 2019, I think it was 4 out of 9.
I need a quote from Bogaerts with a dollar amount he would have signed for.
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Virtually all quotes from free agents are identical (as well as GMs).
If you say you’d have taken $220M from the RS, you just told Preller he overpaid by $65M. If you say you’d have taken $260M, you look a bit mercenary for leaving over 10%.
There is really no reason to say anything but the usual BS. My personal opinion is that the RS really had no interest in re-signing him, and that Bogaerts wanted to get the kind of money that Correa & Turner got. And I’d bet that both sides knew it wasn’t happening, but there was no reason to say anything.
king – Again you show you haven’t a clue.
“Bogey picked Boras as his agent for a reason, and it wasn’t to leave dollars on the table.”
Guess who was Xander’s agent when he signed the extremely team-friendly $120M extension prior to the 2019 season.
I’ve never muted anyone for constantly posting ridiculously false information, but I’m getting tempted here.
Joe – You are right on the first part. Xander is too classy and too intelligent to say SD paid DOUBLE what he was willing to accept earlier in the year.
But one thing is certain, he would have refuted this quote if it weren’t true.
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35265339/mlb-free-agency-r…
“When Bloom signed Trevor Story to a six-year, $140 million contract before spring training last year, Bogaerts felt hopeful that an extension on his own contract might follow. One source close to Bogaerts said he would have seriously considered an extension similar to Story’s deal. Instead, the Red Sox offered Bogaerts an additional year and $30 million on top of the three years and $60 million left on his deal. For a player who helped bring championships to Boston in 2013 and 2018 and had grown into the team’s de facto captain, the offer felt like “a slap” according to a source close to Bogaerts.”