With the Cardinals’ surprisingly disappointing season taking them out of contention early, the NL Central has been thrown wide open in 2023. Even the Pirates looked like they might have a breakout in them after an impressive 19-9 start in April, though their subsequent struggles have shown that the Bucs aren’t yet out of the rebuilding woods.
That has left three teams still in the mix, as the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs enter Sunday’s action battling for not only the NL Central title, but playoff berths of any sort via the wild card. Milwaukee holds a three-game lead in the division, while the Cubs are just narrowly ahead of Cincinnati by percentage points, which also puts Chicago into the final NL wild card slot.
In something of a topsy-turvy year in the division, the Brewers have been the constant. Milwaukee has spent the entire season either in first place, or no more than two games behind the NLC lead. This success has come despite a middling Pythagorean record — the Brewers have outscored opponents by just a single run, yet have a 67-57 record. With tiebreakers possibly looming as a factor, the Brewers have already won the season series with the Reds (with a dominant 10-3 record) and have a 4-3 edge in games against the Cubs.
As per usual, the Brew Crew has leaned on their pitching to win games, even their usually strong rotation has been more good than great in 2023. A number of injuries have impacted the pitching mix, most notably a shoulder strain for Brandon Woodruff that cost the former All-Star about four months of action. Milwaukee’s best pitching performances have come at the back of the bullpen, as closer Devin Williams and setup man Joel Payamps have been arguably baseball’s best one-two endgame combination. This ability to hold close leads has been the main factor in the Brewers’ 25-11 record in one-run games, though that kind of anomalous success might hint at some regression.
While Milwaukee’s pitching has helped prop up a lackluster offense, the Reds have something of the opposite problem. The emergence of Cincinnati’s core of top prospects has been one of the top stories of the 2023 season, as rookies Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Will Benson have all helped carry the Reds out of a rebuild and to a 64-60 record. Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have also made their MLB debuts to add to this position player core, not to mention the contributions of Jonathan India, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, and the ageless Joey Votto.
With a 29-35 record on June 9, the Reds suddenly shot into relevance and contention with a 12-game winning streak, and they’ve stayed afloat ever since, despite a rough 1-8 start to the month of August. Beyond the question of how the rookies can hold up under pennant race pressure, Cincinnati’s bigger issue is a lack of pitching, as Reds starters rank in the bottom three in the league in both ERA and WHIP. The returns of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Ben Lively from the injured list are being counted on to boost the rotation, as the Reds didn’t acquire any starting pitching at the trade deadline.
Just a month ago, the idea of the Cubs competing for the NL Central title would’ve seemed inconceivable, as the Wrigleyville nine had a 43-50 record. Just when it looked like Chicago might be one of the key sellers at the trade deadline, however, the team caught fire. The Cubs went 18-6 over 24 games between July 18 and August 12, finishing second in baseball in runs (160), RBI (151), average (.291), slugging percentage (.508) and wRC+ (135) in that stretch. Cody Bellinger’s huge run at the plate fueled a lot of that offensive eruption, but unheralded minor league signing Mike Tauchman wasn’t far behind Bellinger’s numbers. The late success turned the Cubs into deadline buyers, and after coming back to Chicago in a deal with the Nationals, Jeimer Candelario has also been on fire.
Chicago’s rotation has been solid overall, yet it took a big hit with the news that Marcus Stroman will miss the next several weeks recovering from a rib cartilage fracture. Losing one of their two best starters for an extended period (and maybe even the rest of the season) will test the Cubs’ starting depth, and the lineup might have to keep carrying the load to keep the team in the race.
With apologies to the Cardinals and Pirates, we’re going to assume that a miraculous late-season surge isn’t coming, so we’re going to limit the poll choices to the top three contenders. Who do you think will finish atop the NL Central standings? (Link to poll for app users)
I think it’s going to come down to the last week. It’s actually one of the more interesting things this season.
The Brewers seem like an obvious choice until you see their +5 run differential. If only Texas had 30% of their luck…
Yeah.. luck.
The brew crew and cubbies have a lot of unfinished business left having only played 7 so far.
That opens the door somewhat for the reds, because for all those remaining games either CHI or MIL is guaranteed to take a loss.
That’s something of an advantage when you’re trying to run down and pass a team.
And the other team is guaranteed a win. So, the Reds would need to win most of their games on those days the Cubs and Brewers are ahead in the standings and playing each other. It is more of a disadvantage as the Reds wouldn’t be able to gain ground on both teams if they are behind both teams.
Given the talent level of both teams, not to mention series split so far, it’s more likely they beat eachother up going 4-2 or 3-3 than one team taking 5-1 or 6-0.
That means it’s easier to gain ground, and, harder to lose ground. Very simple concept.
Mitt Mittens would disagree…? Oliver marmol will be manager of the year and the Cardinals are going to hoist there 12th world series trophy this November!
Would like to say Reds, but the Brew Crew locked it up in the series against them since the Reds did nothing to help their pitching problems during that month they played against each other nine times.
Craig Counsel will out coach the other guys and somehow the talent deficient Brew Crew will take the cheese again.
But the NL Central is so awful, none of them should be allowed in the playoffs!
Get out of here. They have 3 teams above .500. The same as AL West, NL East, NL West. Why don’t you pay attention. Do a little research on against other divisions too.
You want research? Ok.
Brewers: 24-12 vs NL Central, only 10 games above .500 overall
Cubs 21-14 vs NL Central, only 5 games above .500
This means both teams play under .500 outside of their division. The NL Central is weak, probably only better than the AL Central.
The Cubs have 2-of-3 each from the Braves, Orioles, Rays, Rangers, Mariners, and Blue Jays. They’re good.
Did you think of the fact that the braves never seen burnes never seen woody never seen Freddy??? The dodgers seen one they seen burnes and the final was 1-0 dodgers that’s a coin flip game there’s your stats…..
Yes. When mid teams like the Brewers can cut their number 4 and 5 from the rotation and go top 3 versus top 3, they can compete with better, legitimate top teams in the NL.
Make no mistake, the NL Central is weak and the first place squad in that division will be handed a gift in rankings and home field for round one. By virtue of their weak division and weak team, they benefit from not having to address poor depth the way Atlanta, the AL East and AL West need to.
There’s your real stats.
Don’t want to see how bad the Cubs have been to have the record they have despite the 2-of-3’s. Also count how many games they avoided aces. They avoided the Jays top 2 starters and Bo Bichette to barely take 2.
I think you meant AL Central
Just repeating what a lot of people said up until..well, I guess when they realized the Padres, Cards, Mets, and a couple other supposed sure-fire contenders are actually 1 step from dumpster fire status.
Still kinda is TBH.
Wouldn’t surprise me if it’s Brewers – Twins in the World Series. Both teams will be hot the final week of the season and roll through the playoffs.
that would be the best world series that no one watched
and there is still a possibility that THREE teams from the NL Central make the playoffs—maybe one—but possibly three.
I guess, according to research, every team in the NL central is both better AND worse than their actual record..which doesn’t (or shouldn’t..) matter at all.
Brewers with Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff should be good to go. The fact that their front office refuses to go out and acquire a big bat every year at the deadline shows how little they care about actually winning. As long as the fans show up, they are happy.
eh… as much as I would have liked Justin Turner or Eloy Jimenez, i’m glad we didnt overpay to get them. while Canha and Santana aren’t needlemovers by themselves, they do improve the team marginally and don’t disrupt the strengths of the team, which is pitching and defense. couple that with an improving farm system that is maybe a year or two away from being a top 5 program, and things get a little more interesting in the good land
Brewers have the #3 farm system (August 2023 rankings)
i’m not surprised, but they started the season as #15, so that is a huge jump… this will be an interesting offseason
dont you remember in 2011 when the cards were “out of contention” and they came back and won the world series?
I remember that the Cardinals won the WS in 2911
I don’t remember the specifics.
According to MLB.com, on August 20th they were 8.5 games out of the wild card with 2 teams in front of them.
*https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card/2011-08-20
In 2023 they are 10 games out of the wild card with 7 teams in front of them.
*https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card
I hope you’re not suggesting that those are equivalent situations. I hope you’re not suggesting that the Cardinals have some special ability to come back.
If you’re just saying that a small probability event sometimes happens, you’re right. The Cardinals have a small chance until the day that they are mathematically eliminated.
right which is why I was little confused as to why there was only 3 teams in the poll
Shouldn’t be very confusing.
Three teams have reasonable chances of winning the division. Hence, three teams in the poll.
You might not agree that only 3 teams should be in the poll. That’d be fine. But why there are only 3 teams in the poll is obvious.
well then i guess its brewers for me then!
You remember the Cardinals won the World Series in 2911?
We have a time traveller here!
They did win 17 straight games in September ’21 so it’s not impossible, it’s just improbable
That Cardinals team was 6 games over .500 at the time. This Cardinals team is 15 games under .500 at this very moment
GB WC is relatively similar my point u jolt
I’m going with the Cubs.
Would love for it to be the Reds, but their young pitching just isn’t there yet to carry them down the stretch. They’re a major force on the rise, but just not there yet.
The Brewers have spent the most time in first, but pretty much by default. They have the weakest offense in the NL, while the Cubs have one of the better offenses. And there isn’t that much separation in their pitching staffs. I’d rather have Burnes, Woodruff, and Williams than any three of the Cubs pitchers. But overall, the staffs aren’t exactly worlds apart.
Nothing surprising about the cardinals. When you go into the season with a terrible rotation because you’ve traded away Cy winners for garbage and your only addition was to resign a 41 yr old pitcher/budding national anthem singer whose ERA is north of 8, it’s expected.
You feel good about yourself for that stupid comment?
Cardinals had 15 straight winning seasons prior to this year. Who else can say that?
the Yankees. Their last losing season was in 1992. That’s like 30 seasons of being above .500.
The Yankees are considered by everyone and anyone as the best franchise in baseball history.
That’s fine company to be in.
Sadly, both those records may end this season.
The Cardinals have a great offense, it’s really the pitching that seemed to let them down this season. When the pitching was good, the offense went cold. Just couldn’t get on the same page consistently. Of course, losing the heart of the team in Yadi probably had a bit to do with it too.
Pretty obvious the cardinals run was because of Molina. The organization is meh.
I picked Brewers too because I do believe their pitching and defense slightly separates them from the Cubs. I thought the poll would be a lot closer though
Me.
The Reds.
It’s not gonna be the Cardinals. This year or next.
That’s OK Mark, we’ve been apologizing for the Pirates for many years now.
Reds. Only because I want to see Elly steal home in a post season game ♂️
Will be a hunger games like finish, gotta go with those big nuts on Clark. Get rid of divisions.
Will Clark? Who is Clark?
Add two teams, East/West.
At this point the Brewers control their own destiny. The Brewers remaining schedule has:
2 with the Twins
3 with the Padres
6 with the Cubs
3 with the Phillies
3 with the Pirates
3 with the Yankees
4 with the Marlins
3 with the Nationals
7 with the Cardinals
Thats a lot of winnable games remaining.
The Cubs remaining schedule has:
3 with the Tigers
6 with the Pirates
6 with the Brewers
3 with the Reds
3 with the Giants
4 with the Diamondbacks
6 with the Rockies
3 with the Braves
The Reds remaining schedule has:
3 with the Angels
4 with the Diamondbacks
3 with the Giants
3 with the Cubs
3 with the Mariners
6 with the Cardinals
3 with the Tigers
3 with the Mets
3 with the Twins
3 with the Pirates
2 with the Guardians
I feel like the Reds have it tougher and the Cubs have a sort of in-between schedule. Brewes and Cubs head-to-head on the final weekend should be fun if it comes down to it
I’ve voted multiple times so the results will not be accurate.
your honesty is applauded, you dirty rotten scoundrel
Brewers. And then knocked out right away
My sentimental choice is the Reds, to be honest it would be a miracle, they’re hanging in with very questionable pitching. If they can catch fire again, with all their youth, imagine how much fun the playoffs would be.
It would be nice to see Cinci in there, but I voted for the Brew Crew.
Brewers. And this should be the year Craig Counsell finally gets a manager of the year award.
FanGraphs gives the Brewers about a 3:1 edge. I see no reason to think I know more than they do.
Here’s how I’d LIKE the playoffs to shake out (realistically given the current probabilities)
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Guardians
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Jays, Mariners
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Phillies, Marlins, Reds
Your AL is all screwed up.
AL East: Orioles
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Mariners
AL Wild Card: Rangers, Astros, Jays
LOL granted this one is hard to predict and will come down to the last week of games.
Ya gotta believe
One big assumption here is the Rays. I’m thinking they fizzle with losing Wander and their starting pitching situation being so precarious. If they hang in there will switch them out with Astros or Jays.
Brewers or Cubs. The Reds aren’t ready yet. Highly doubt anyone from the Central has any playoff success but you never know. Once the playoffs start anything can happen.
Brewers with a decisive sweep of Rangers in Texas. Their offense looking better.
yeah, but we’ll need to go through the Dodgers to even get a shot at Texas again…
NOT the Reds! LOL
Milwaukee responded to a sweep by the Dodgers with a sweep at Texas. The hitting lineup is showing improvement, and the bullpen is anticipating Aaron Ashby’s return.
Ashby’s velo is down enough that he might not make it back this year. Offseason strengthening program and he should be good to go next season.
Taking the Cubs on the basis of math alone. We still have six weeks for the law of averages to catch up.
None of them. Given that Tampa Bay is the 4th best team in MLB and not leading a division, they should be rewarded the NL Central title.
gross… even the fine folks of Tampa don’t want that
If baseball continues with this new balanced schedule, I see no reason why we shouldn’t move in the direction of just taking the best records from each league. Winning a division is important, but when you deemphasize division play with a balanced schedule, then why not take the best records?
@ Von Purple Hayes.
Agreed but how do you get there? 6 games against the other 29 teams = 174 games in total.. Consequently we’d be starting in mid March etc.
I’m sure better minds than mine can create a better balance, but the relative weakness of the two central divisions do beg this type of question…
I don’t know if they’ll end up winning it, but the Cubs are gonna be the team that continues to close the gap on the Brewers.
You can’t put a number on what it meant to not sell at the deadline, but I think that’s going to prove to be a great baseball choice. Chicago and Milwaukee will definitely both make the playoffs.
“Chicago and Milwaukee will definitely both make the playoffs.”
Miami, Cinci, Arizona are all currently just 1.0 back from the Cubs. I’m not so sure we see 2 central teams in the playoffs. Maybe, but I don’t know.
I remember at the beginning of the year Pirates fans were screaming how this is their year and all the patients and perseverance and shrewd trades was paying off. Going to be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. Oh my gosh that management team is making dreams come true. I was like “naaaaa they suck give em time. Won’t take long.” Looks like I was right. Again. Anyway won’t be the Pirates winning anything. Brewers are the safest bet.
I voted for the Cubs but in the back of my mind I believe them not going out and grabbing another arm is going to come back and bite them, well it’s already bitten them but could very well be what cost them the division.
The Cubs need for another arm was so obvious, Smyly was struggling, Stroman was struggling and JT has been inconsistent all year. I’m not sure why they would go in on Calendario, which was a great pick up, and not snag an arm.
The Cubs have an “easy” schedule and they have several head to heads with the Brewers but they continue to play down to their competition.
Good points, I agree with a lot of them. I think The Marcus Strohman injury is big!
I picked my team the Brewers! Cubs much better lineup. Brewers better pitching. Should be close. Up 3 games Sunday Night
Why would anyone call a baseball team a “nine” in this day and age? Obviously the rosters aren’t that small anymore, but teams start ten players now. It’s not 1918 anymore, and calling a team a “nine” is hackneyed drivel.
I’m gonna guess because that’s how many are on the field defensively at all times (even if every there are some teams try really hard to hide), or how many batters are in the lineup.
To my knowledge, neither of these things has changed in the past decade a or 2. (sarcasm).
Should we also stop calling them the boys of summer, since they’re a) grown men (at least physically) and b) also play in the spring and fall?
It’s going to be either the Brewers or the Cubs, and the Reds will really be kicking themselves for not going out and acquiring some starting pitching at the deadline when the division was there for the taking. There were plenty of mid-rotation guys available who would have been a big upgrade over what the Reds are running out there every game. I know Reds fans like their young talent and feel like they have a bright future, but the Brewers, Cubs, and even the Pirates have a lot of young talent as well (all three were top five farm systems in the latest rankings), and you know the Cardinals aren’t going to stay down for long, so there’s no guarantee the Reds will have this good a shot at the playoffs anytime in the next few years.
Luis Castillo of the Mainers would look good in Reds’ uniform right now, at least to the fans and players, but certainly not the team owner.