When a three-team deal was announced last December that saw ten different players change hands, it was hardly surprising that Sean Murphy’s move to Atlanta received the lion’s share of the focus, particularly considering the fact that Murphy inked a six-year extension with the Braves just two weeks later. After all, rumors of the A’s looking to move on from their franchise catcher had circulated for weeks at that point and the Braves, who were coming off a 101-win season that was ultimately cut short during the NLDS, were an interesting landing spot.
Nine months later, it’s unlikely the Braves have any regrets about the deal. Murphy has taken a step forward with the bat in Atlanta, slashing a sensational .278/.387/.538 with a career-best wRC+ of 149 that when combined with his typical stellar defense behind the plate has allowed the 28-year-old All-Star to rack up 4.3 fWAR in just 87 games this season. Meanwhile, the Braves are the consensus best team in baseball with Fangraphs’ playoff odds giving the club an incredibly 26.5% chance at winning the World Series this year.
While Atlanta’s success both in this season and in landing Murphy is impressive in its own right, the Braves are not the only winner of this trade to this point in the season. Indeed, they may not even be the biggest winner of the deal so far. That’s because the Brewers, the requisite third team needed to help facilitate the deal, managed to turn their #8 prospect in outfielder Esteury Ruiz into five seasons of an All-Star catcher of their own, plus an excellent set-up man and an additional pitching prospect to boot.
En route to a breakout season with Atlanta during which he made his first career All-Star appearance, catcher William Contreras shared time behind the plate with Travis d’Arnaud while also mixing in at DH and even in the outfield. In all, he slashed an impressive .278/.354/.506 with 20 home runs in just 376 trips to the plate.
While that impressive display of power combined with Contreras’s 10.4% walk rate was enough to make him the 12th most valuable catcher in all of baseball last year, there were reasons to wonder if the youngster would be able to maintain his production going forward. Contreras’s 27.7% strikeout rate left plenty of reason for concern, as was a massive .344 BABIP. With those potential red flags signalling possible regression in Contreras’s future, it’s hardly a surprise to find that his .370 wOBA in 2022 outstripped his .347 xwOBA considerably.
Far more concerning than his offensive numbers, which were excellent for a catcher even if they regressed to match his expected numbers, was his glovework behind the plate. In 2022, Contreras was worth -7 runs per Statcast’s catcher defense metric, with negative marks in each of framing, stealing, and blocking. His framing, in particular, left much to be desired, as he landed in just the 20th percentile of all catchers in terms of catcher framing runs, with only 3 catchers in the sport posting a worse figure than Contreras’s -3 without receiving more pitches than him. Fielding Bible’s DRS agreed with that assessment, as Contreras’s -4 mark put him in the bottom 20 of all catchers last year.
With so many questions regarding Contreras’s fielding and his ability to maintain last year’s excellent offensive production, it makes perfect sense for the Braves to prefer a fully developed, surefire starting catcher in the form of Murphy. That preference created a window of opportunity for the Brewers, however, who had just lost their current starting catcher, Omar Narvaez, to free agency. The club had a history of helping bat-first catchers develop defensively, including with Narvaez himself.
This year, Milwaukee has managed to add Contreras to their list of defensive success stories behind the plate. It’s been a transformational year defensively for Contreras, as the youngster has soared to an excellent +8 runs per Statcast, with his catcher framing runs in particular leaping from -3 all the way up to +7, the seventh-best mark in the sport this year behind only defensive stalwarts like Murphy, Austin Hedges, and Jonah Heim. Once again, DRS backs up Contreras’s improvement behind the dish as well, as his +7 DRS leaves him as the eighth most valuable defensive catcher in baseball according to the metric, even clocking in ahead of Murphy.
Contreras’s defense is clearly the star of the show when discussing his year-to-year improvement, but his offensive adjustments deserve a mention as well. While he has undergone some expected offensive regression from his All-Star campaign in 2022, particularly in the power department, his current production is not only still excellent for a catcher (his 113 wRC+ ranks 6th among catchers with at least 300 PA this season) but also appears far more sustainable going forward. His BABIP has dipped to a less outlandish .327 figure, but most importantly, Contreras has cut his strikeout rate to just 20.4%, a figure that’s actually better than league average. While his walk rate has dipped slightly and he isn’t hitting for as much power this season, this new version of Contreras is posting a strong .341 wOBA that matches his .338 xwOBA, indicating a level of sustainability that couldn’t be found in last season’s power-driven numbers.
Contreras isn’t the only player the Brewers received in last year’s trade, of course. While pitching prospect Justin Yeager has managed just 2 1/3 innings of work this season while spending almost the entire year on the injured list, right-handed reliever Joel Payamps has also proved to be a revelation with Milwaukee, though not quite as impactful of one as Contreras. Payamps came to the Brewers as a solid if unexciting middle reliever, with a career 3.35 ERA and 4.19 FIP in 113 innings of work with the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Royals, and A’s.
Since joining the Brewers, however, he’s looked like a different pitcher entirely. His walk rate dipped from a career 7.6% mark entering 2023 to just 5% this season, while his strikeout rate ballooned from a career mark of just 17.6% entering the year to an incredible 29.3% figure with Milwaukee. Those improvements are seemingly thanks to a combination of across-the-board velocity gains and change in his pitch-mix to emphasis his slider. Payamps’ step forward has allowed the Brewers to rely on him as the primary set-up man to closer Devin Williams, forming a lethal duo at the back of the club’s bullpen.
As with any trade, a few months isn’t enough time to understand the full scope of the impact last year’s three-team blockbuster will have on the clubs involved. Ruiz, who has posted a wRC+ of just 81 with Oakland this year but has offered plus defense in center field and swiped a whopping 48 bags, could prove to be a valuable piece in the coming years and change the perception of the deal. True as that may be, however, Milwaukee’s front office is surely delighted with the early returns on the deal, particularly considering they control Payamps through the end of the 2026 campaign and Contreras through the end of 2027.
ATL definitely won this trade without question.
Not really. It’s a push.
Nah, Atlanta won this one right now and I think it’ll remain the same in 3-5 years.
Braves traded away 5 years of a 3-4 WAR catcher for 3 years of a 4-5 WAR catcher.
Brewers traded away 6 years of a 1-2 WAR player for the aforementioned 15-20 WAR. Brewers clearly did the best for the least, and that’s before you even factor in the difference in salaries, which makes it even better for the Brewers.
Brewers absolutely got the best value. But the Braves are so deep pocketed that having the opportunity to lock in Murphy as the catcher of their dynasty ultimately makes them the “winner.”
It’s still the first season of the deal. We have no idea who won the trade yet. Get back to me in 2-3 years after injuries, etc.
This is the truth.
Not really, it’s a push.
Gentlemen, gentlemen, please. Two things can be true at once. Maybe both of those teams are “winners” and happy with the outcome.
The Braves couldn’t make Contreras into a plus catcher though. That’s the difference. The brewers are the best in baseball at improving catcher defense. Atlanta did very well in the deal also. The brewers got the best value overall.
Braves got the best player, and they’ll certainly win more games than the Brewers over this season and the next 3 or 4, but that does not equal the best value.
Have to win multiple rings before you have a dynasty. Let’s talk again in November.
No Contreras is only 22 and will have a better career than Murphy. Brewers won the trade.
Contreras is 25.
Contreras is 25 and will be 26 in December. But that’s OK, they have Jeferson Quero arriving in 2025.
At least Oakland doesn’t have to pay Murphy 4 million this year (sarcasm).
Trust me, the A’s feel like they won that trade because of that.
But the big miss was the A’s taking Manny Pina and we’re is he now. Contreras as another hitter in the A’s lineup would have been a nice addition. Then again maybe in Oakland he would not have grown like he has. Fun parts of the trade are the what if factor and this is a great one to explore.
Oakland’s return for their star players the last 2 seasons has been nothing less than pathetic. After all is said and done Oakland has the fifth worst farm system in baseball according to the latest MLB.com rankings.
That’s the amazing part. They drafted high the last two years and they’ve traded away quality major leaguers, but they still have one of the worst farms in the game.
They clearly value prospects differently than the rest of MLB does. They didn’t even ask for Michael Harris ll or Spencer Strider in the Olson deal. They wanted Langeliers (spelling) & Pache who they’ve already moved on from. The key of the whole deal was to get Ruiz who the article states was MIL’s #8 prospect.
I get outfielders are important in Oakland b/c the park – but you’re telling me they only decided to move after these trades? I think not.
I don’t think it’s fair to call the trade a “heist” by the Brewers. Murphy has performed well in Atlanta, Ruiz was probably more deserving to be the A’s All Star rep than Rooker (plus Muller and Tarnok are still nice building blocks despite struggling at the MLB level this season). I’d say the deal has worked out well for all 3 teams, which is a rarity in and of itself
I think the heist label comes from what the Brewers gave up and what they got. They gave up a lot less than they got. This was essentially a Contreras-for-Ruiz-for-Murphy trade. the Brewers got a cheap controllable above average catcher for a fast outfielder who can’t hit. The pitchers were the whipped cream and cherry on top.
Ruiz in the AS game? He’s a replacement level player.
Replacement level player All-Star sounds crazy, but it is John Fisher’s 2023 A’s
Don’t forget about OAK receiving former 1st rd pick: Ryan Cusick and, imho, a better building block (and higher-rated on MLBPipeline than Tarnok): Joey Estes. ATL was really high on Estes.
Yes, I was sad to see Estes go. I thought he’d ultimately be the one that the Braves really regretted trading away.
Also, Contreras has improved in the framing department, but he’s still struggled to cleanly block up balls, and still tends to airmail some throws every once in awhile.
His defense has definitely improved, but he’s FAR from a solid defensive catcher.
Either way, as a Brewers fan, you couldn’t have hoped for more out of this deal. The same goes for the Braves.
Both teams won this deal, especially with the Braves helping Sean Murphy reach new heights offensively, and then signing him to a new team friendly deal on top of it all.
With the new rules in baseball, and with d’Arnaud getting a year older, the Braves knew they needed an excellent defensive catcher they could rely on for the next few seasons. Murphy can do it all, and he’s consistently rewarding the Braves’ faith and trust in his abilities at bat after at bat, inning after inning, and game after game.
Plus, another aspect of this deal, is Murphy’s presence in the locker room. Having Murphy as a friend and a familiar face has really helped Matt Olson calm down and become not nearly as anxious and nervous everyday when he comes to the ballpark. That familiarity, along with some key adjustments made by Seitzer, has helped boost both players into career years, and these two will be major difference makers for the Braves as they try to win their next Title.
One thing in common that Atlanta gave up—guys who can’t throw strikes.
Cusick, Muller, and Tarnok are probably all relievers. Estes is the only strike thrower of the bunch.
Cusick was in the Matt Olson trade
Of they’re gonna miss any of the prospects that they traded away it’s going to be – baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mal…
Sure, I like him. His bat definitely plays, but a lot of questions about where he’ll end up in the field. DET has him at 3B, but I think there’s questions about COF defense. But Jimenez is a FA after this year, so high price to pay.
I like reading articles like these. Some teams have better GMs. Other teams used to have great GMs.
This is considered a “heist” for the Brewers because they essentially traded Ruiz whole was their 5th best OF prospect (Mitchell, Frelick, Weimer, Chourio) for a young controllable catcher who was fresh off an all star season plus get 2 young arms to help the bullpen as well.
It’s only a heist because Cone-treras (as the great Pat Hughes pronounces it on Cubs radio broadcasts) improved over last year’s ho-hum numbers. Had he stayed the same player, this trade would’ve been an afterthought.
He had an excellent offensive season last year. And His offensive numbers are worse across the board. Every single one. Do you even know who the guy is?
@blackandorange
Tell me where Contreras hit in the line-up when he was with the Braves as opposed to where he is hitting in the Brewers line-up.
Do you think just maybe hitting in the 2 hole consistently in the Brewers line-up is different to that of how he was used when he played for the Braves?
Hitting in the 2 hole, if you’ve ever played the game, is a whole different ball game, and Mr William Contreras is doing an excellent job at only 25 years of age.
He is likely referring to his great improvement defensively. After all, catching is a defense-first position.
Yeah. It was also not likely that Contreras’ power outburst last year was his true self. He had never shown that much pop and the data suggested he wouldn’t hit HRS like that moving forward.
It should be pronounced Cone-treras. Spanish has a long “oh” sound not a short one like in “con” man.
He was only 21 last year. Of course he got better.
Contreras was 24 last year.
Murphy is the only player who will be remembered outside Milwaukee 10 years from now. That makes them the winner imo.
Brewers have a secret catching lab that we must stop. Time for MLB to raid the facility down in Arizona.
The braves lost the trade in my eyes only because Wild Billy was my favorite Brave.
Need to sign candelario at the off-season
Brewers are going to really miss Stearns, who has consistently unearthed talent and maximized value for a small market team. They’ve been the ‘smartest’ team in the NL: Central for several years.
This was done after Stearns stepped down though. I’m thinking Arnold learned quite a bit from him.
Yeah I mean Arnold came up with the Rays and then got a few years learning from Stearns, you really couldn’t ask for a better FO learning experience than that in your first 10 or so years.
The only thing better than robbing Atl/Oak of a young controllable catcher like WilCo and a sharp bullpen piece for virtually nothing is having them think we didn’t. By all means gentlemen, let’s do business again
The Braves control Murphy for six years after 2023.
Only because they paid to extend him. At the time of the trade they had 3 years of control.
Yep. What’s your point?
The one at the top of your head?
That is because of the extension. Regardless, how is that relevant to the above comment?
Cardinals are hoping William shares what the Brewers taught him with Willson at the family dinners in the off season….
… buried the lead.
Lede.
Lead – main idea, Baseball, though both work. Either way, an increasingly irritating writing style sweeping sports sites. Built-in click bait and people writing in that “to be continued” style …
John Fisher won this trade because he loves to lose. better be careful in Vegas, buddy
3 months have passed and Fisher has not been able to acquire financing to build a Las Vegas ballpark and has not yet applied to MLB to get permission to move.
Brewer fan….but I long for the day when fooling umpires into calling a ball a strike is no longer a consideration for rating catchers.
#robotumps!
I don’t really understand the idea, when catchers don’t actually frame/hold the ball long enough to convince me watching from a better angle than the ump has.
The true borderline pitches I have no problem with the catcher moving it just a hair to remove any doubt. It’s when the pitch is 4-5 inches in/out/up/down that bug me..especially when some of the umps call those strikes without the catcher’s help.
“An incredibly 26.5% chance?” Edit your pieces, Mr. Deeds. Sheesh.
“True as that may be” is not proper English. It’s “AS true as that may be.” Hire an editor, MLBTR. Deeds et al clearly are out of their depth trying to do it themselves, since they don’t know basic grammar.
Negative Nellie.
It’s free content. Go yell at the Athletic if they have mistakes but cut these kids some slack. Writing on the Internet does not pay well.
Pay for access so they can hire an editor, volunteer to do it for free for them, or stfu.
I would do it for free, absolutely. Thanks for the idea. Now stfu.
Any more stupid comments you want to make?
Sorry you’re having such a bad day lmao
Complaining about sentence structure on a free sports rumor site is kinda silly (for the most part).
Doing so with the username ‘But It Do’ and using ‘stfu’ and ‘lmao’ in an ensuing argument is just…sad. Where’s the professionalism?
Obviously, you don’t know who Oscar Gamble is. Also, you expect professionalism out of a commenter? I’m not a writer. I’m not being paid.
Don’t have a clue who that is. I expect a commenter who makes it his business to point out the writer’s imperfections to be more professional with his own writing, paid or not. I guess it’s a case of do what I say, not what I do. So by all means, carry on.
I expect a commenter on a baseball site to know who Oscar Gamble is. Also, if you think that using “lmao” or “stfu” is unprofessional, then you’re the stuffy one.
Contreras has had an OPS above 730 after all but 10games total this year. Absolute steal when Victor Caratini was the on paper starting catcher for milw 20w3 with no backup. By far the teams most consistent batter with Yelich being the only batter on the team who can even exist in the argument. I’d say Milw is 15games better in the standings due to him alone vs Caratini+backup. That’s last place in the division.
Stfu? Lol, sorry you’re having such a bad day BaseballisLife.
You replied to wrong person ♤♤
Brewers and Braves won the trade but I believe the Brewers got more value with 5 years of Contreras and 4 years of Payamps and he has turned into a great 8th inning setup guy to Williams
While Contreras has been better than expected in the field. The last time I looked the Brewers were in the top 10 in MLB at allowing SB’s. Some opposing teams have run wild on the Brewer backstops this season. Granted, that’s also on the pitchers. I’d rather have a defense-first catcher. Although Milwaukee can use all the offense they can get their hands on.