Pirates manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, this afternoon that right-handers Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras would not pitch again this year, as both players have been shut down for the remainder of the 2023 campaign. With the Pirates well outside the playoff picture and just three games remaining on the club’s schedule after today, the news isn’t a major surprise, though it’s worth noting that Keller was otherwise lined up to take the ball for the club’s final game of the season against the Marlins.
The news officially brings to an end what has been a strong campaign for Keller, who sits atop Pittsburgh’s starting rotation. The former second-round pick struggled badly through the first three seasons of his big league career, with a 6.02 ERA that was 28% worse than league average by measure of ERA+ with a 4.30 FIP in 170 1/3 innings of work (39 starts). Things began to turn around for Keller last season, however, as he posted a solid 3.91 ERA (104 ERA+) with a 3.88 FIP in 159 innings of work. While Keller’s 20.1% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate last year didn’t exactly jump off the page, he did generate an impressive 49% groundball rate in 2022.
Despite it being his fifth season as a big leaguer, Keller was still just 27 years old headed into the 2023 and appeared to be in the midst of a breakout campaign for much of the season. While his 2023 began with a four-run, 4 2/3 inning clunker against the Reds, Keller fired off nine consecutive starts with three earned runs or fewers allowed, including a complete-game shutout of the Rockies and a 13-strikeout game against the Orioles where he posted seven scoreless innings.
Keller’s strong start to the season earned him his first career All Star appearance, and he headed into the break with an impressive season in the works: across nineteen starts before the Midsummer Classic, Keller had a 3.31 ERA and nearly matching 3.32 FIP in 117 innings of work with a 26.7% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 7%. Unfortunately for Keller, his excellence wouldn’t continue into the second half. Over his final 13 starts, Keller mustered just a 5.59 ERA with a 4.52 FIP in 77 1/3 innings of work, with his strikeout rate during that time dipping to 23.8%.
The late-season struggles brought Keller’s final line for the 2023 season in line with his 2022 campaign, albeit with more innings: in 32 starts (194 1/3 innings), Keller posted a 4.21 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 3.80 FIP. Still, if Keller can replicate his strong start to the 2022 campaign next year, Pirates fans have plenty of reason for excitement about the 27-year-old righty’s future. Keller is arbitration-eligible this offseason and won’t be a free agent until the 2025-26 offseason.
Contreras, on the other hand, failed to build on a solid 2022 campaign where he posted a 3.79 ERA and 4.38 FIP in 95 innings of work. The 23-year-old righty struggled badly in 2023, with a brutal 6.59 ERA with a 5.19 FIP in 68 1/3 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 18.2%. The youngster’s struggles resulted in him being demoted from the rotation in late May and spending a portion of the year at the Triple-A level, where he similarly struggled to a 4.96 ERA across 32 2/3 innings. Given Contreras’s pronounced struggles this season, it seems reasonable to expect the former top-100 prospect to enter camp next year on the outside looking in with regards to the club’s rotation plans, though given his youth and previous success he should still factor into the club’s pitching mix one way or another.
Good. Now extend the young man this off season
Why and which one? Keller was obviously better but buy low sell high
Seriously? First off, why would they extend Contreras? I feel badly for the guy but it’s clear he’s lost confidence in himself
Where Keller is concerned, the Pirates have a nice core in place but need consistent starting pitching. Their “staff” down the stretch featured Keller, Oviedo and three “reliever games”
Your idea is the idea of a child
Here’s a team of the cusp of contention that needs to pick up a couple starters
Fortunate
“Cusp of contention”
54-75 since May 1st.
May 8-18 30.8% -42
June 11-15 42.3% -37
July 8-16 33.3% -40
August 14-15 48.3% -14
September 13-11 54.2% -12
What is the run differential for the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates?
The Pittsburgh Pirates currently have a run differential of -97. Based on their run differential and their pythagorean expectation, the Pirates could be expected to have about 69.4 wins.
Manny, you forget that “cusp of contention” means wild card berths. Here in Pittsburgh, that’s a step up
Yes extend Keller. Don’t ship him out like Cole.
Keller was offered an extension earlier in the season but won’t take a “ team friendly contract “, according to his agent
if they really want to keep him, Nutting will have to pry his wallet open and pay for Keller’s demands
I like Keller but he still has moments when he reverts back to his pre-2022 self. His spin pitches don’t spin or are without control, he tries to throw fastballs dead red and he has a stretch of games where he gets hit hard
No idea what he’s looking to do with his next contract but I’m not sure he’s in that upper stratosphere yet
Keller had a good year overall. A couple of bumps in the second half, but overall a highly promising season. Contreras on the other hand, I don’t know what it was, whether it be a sophomore slump, or just simply lost it, seemingly just couldn’t get an out to save his life after April. Hope he can reclaim his solid 2022 form next year.
Needs to throw hard again or he is likely done. Reports are they don’t know why he isn’t able to.
Keller gave up 25 homers, far too many for an elite pitcher
Cole has seasons of 24 29 31 33. Verlander 23 24 27 28 30 36. Scherzer 23 23 23 23 27 28 29 31.
Not elite pitchers?
Uh, he’s not. Yet. Hopefully he’ll ascend to the level of those guys but your comparison aside, a hard no
I didn’t make any comparison
It says “elite pitchers sometimes give up similar home run numbers.”
Contreras to the Blue Jays for Alex Manoah
Contreras did pitch in the WBC, and showed flashes early. I hope he can be fixed for a bounce back year. Keller should be an extension candidate. I liked Keller’s overall year, lots of innings of competitive ball. It would be nice if they bring in someone to take the pressure off him being the “stopper.”
Pirates need to
1. Sign Harrison Bader
2. Sign Micheal Lorenzen & Alex Wood to 1 maybe .w yr deals
3. Bring back Carlos Santana or sign Garrett Cooper
4. Bring back McCutchen
5.Trade Keller for a big time prospect that will be ready in 2025 & a piece or 2 that will contribute in 2024 & beyond. But the focal point of the deal would be the prospect.
Teams like the Dodgers, DBacks or Orioles have the farm to overpay for someone like Keller.
I fully expect Keller to turn the corner next year but he has no incentive to sign a long term team friendly deal. Therefore you move him now to at the very least establish a timeline of full contention.
I see no reason they can’t fight for a WC next year but from then on fight for the division for the next couple years.
Why Bader? You’ve mentioned him multiple times. Good defender but lacks offense and injured often.
Trading Keller now is stupid and sets the team back a few years. They are primed to contend next year with a pitching addition or 2. Don’t mind Wood but they need more. Lorenzen probably too expensive.
Do you have a better attainable acquisition than Bader ?
And if Keller won’t sign an extension do you want to risk losing him when right now would be the best opportunity to sell high on him
I just don’t see where Bader makes the Pirates better unless he’s a bench player. Defense is important but other than a 1st base upgrade I wouldn’t mess with the position group. The focus should be on pitching and there is still time for a Keller extension. Resign Velasquez and add another starter and this team goes to he playoffs.
Do teams still trade big time prospects. I think top 10 in baseball as big time. I see top 100s moving for the top trade market pieces. Some are even in the top 50 area sometimes. Top 10 or even 20 I can’t think of any or many. The one I can think of I thought ranking sites had him over rated and is closer to being oit of baseball than useful mlb player.
It would really make my day if they shut down Selby for the season!