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Mitch Keller

Pirates Likely To Keep Mitch Keller Beyond Trade Deadline

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Despite weeks of rumors, it looks as though the Pirates won’t be trading Mitch Keller before tomorrow’s trade deadline, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes.  It would take “a dramatic shift” in the team’s thinking for Keller to be moved at this point.

Several contenders (including the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, and Cubs) were publicly linked to Keller in recent days, yet it appears as though none of these suitors or others were able to meet what was known to be a very high asking price for the right-hander’s services.  One rival executive told Rosenthal that it didn’t seem like the Pirates were willing to explore a Keller deal too deeply, and thus ceased talks.

This stance from the Bucs front office tracks with the most recent reporting on Keller, as Rosenthal and Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette each wrote within the last few days that the Pirates were becoming increasingly disinclined to trade the starter.  Pirates GM Ben Cherington told Hiles and other reporters last weekend that the team valued Keller’s “leadership” and “proven performance.”

“If we’re going to be better in 2026, we need more of that, not less.  We would only contemplate giving up something that’s seemingly more proven if we really believe that they give us a better chance to be better by next year,” Cherington said.

Now in his seventh MLB season, Keller has a 3.69 ERA and 6.2% walk rate over 127 innings and 22 starts for Pittsburgh.  His 18.8% strikeout rate is his lowest over a full season and he has correspondingly low chase and whiff rates, plus Keller’s fastball averages a modest 94mph.  His heater does have plenty of spin on it, however, and Keller’s combination of good control, durability, and non-quantitative value as a veteran leader in a young clubhouse makes him a logical player to keep as the Bucs try to break out of their lengthy rebuilding phase.

The club invested in Keller as a face of its next phase of contention by signing him to a multi-year extension prior to the 2024 season.  Keller still has $54.5MM owed to him from 2026-28, as well as the rest of his $15MM salary for the remainder of the 2025 campaign.  This is a very pricey commitment by the Pirates’ standards, and since the team is staring at another losing season, there was some thought that the Bucs could trim salary by moving Keller elsewhere.  The team did move one significant contract off the books when Ke’Bryan Hayes was dealt to the Reds earlier today, which indirectly makes Keller more affordable with more room now in the Pirates’ limited budget.

Hiles heard from a source that the Pirates could re-engage in Keller’s trade market this winter, which could give the team more time and flexibility in finding an acceptable match.  Without the deadline crunch, the Bucs could also lower their asking price to a more realistic level.  Rosenthal suggested that one reason the Keller talks have stalled is because some clubs “perceive him as nothing more than a mid-rotation starter,” and are therefore perhaps balking at giving up much in the way of significant position-player talent in return, or at taking on Keller’s salary.

Pittsburgh could still explore moving one of its younger and more controllable non-Paul Skenes arms before tomorrow, in order to obtain a proven veteran hitter or a young bat of a comparable prospect value.  With Keller now apparently off the board, the Pirates’ decision will raise the asking price for other teams with starters on offer around the league.

Red Sox Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Red Sox are among a number of teams with interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, according to a report from Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Hiles mentions the Yankees, Mets, and Cubs as being among the other teams that have reached out to the Pirates about Keller, though each of those clubs has previously been connected to the righty this summer.

It should be of little surprise that Boston would have interest in Keller’s services. The 2023 All-Star is in the midst of a career season with the Pirates. He’s posted a 3.69 ERA in 22 starts with a 3.44 FIP. Keller’s strikeout rate (18.8%) is down substantially from previous seasons, which could be a cause for concern, but his 6.6% barrel rate is the lowest of his career and he’s limited his walks to a tidy 6.2%, also a career low. More advanced metrics are skeptical of Keller’s ability to continue producing at this rate with such a low strikeout rate, however; the right-hander’s 4.21 SIERA is the 18th-weakest figure among the league’s 59 qualified starters this year. That suggests he may profile more as a back-of-the-rotation starter than the playoff-caliber #2 his surface-level numbers this year might otherwise make him out to be.

Despite those concerns, Keller remains an attractive trade target. He’s been fairly durable in recent years, with the league’s 12th-highest innings total since 2022, and at just 29 years old he’ll remain in his prime for a few more seasons. With three more years of team control after this one after he signed an extension with the Pirates last year, Keller would be a fixture of an acquiring club’s rotation for years to come. That should be especially attractive to the Red Sox, who could lose both Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler to free agency this winter, though Giolito’s deal has a 2026 option. Either way, they will need reliable arms to fill out the remainder of their rotation alongside Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. He should be attractive to a number of other teams as well; in addition to the clubs mentioned above, Keller has also been connected to the Blue Jays.

Despite that solid base of teams Keller is drawing interest from, however, Hiles emphasizes that there’s no guarantee he’ll actually be traded this summer. Hiles reports that the Pirates are “comfortable” holding onto Keller if their “steep” asking price isn’t met, and Hiles adds that Pittsburgh could revisit dealing Keller in the offseason, when it could be easier to pry a hitter already in the majors away from interested clubs. That seems likely to be true of the Red Sox, at least. Boston outfielder Jarren Duran has been the frequent subject of trade speculation in recent weeks due to the club’s logjam of talent in the outfield, but the latest signals point to the club holding onto him this summer and re-evaluating over the winter.

Duran, an above-average everyday player controlled through the end of the 2028 season, is the exact sort of player the Pirates are surely dreaming of acquiring. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Pirates are holding out for a controllable hitter of that caliber and ultimately decide to keep Keller in the fold in order to try again this winter if that asking price isn’t met. Of course, that strategy would run the risk of interested clubs pivoting elsewhere once free agency opens up additional options. With roughly $56MM left on his deal after the 2025 season, Keller is more expensive financially than the typical trade target. That could leave his market to be more impacted by free agency than the average trade piece, at least during the offseason. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Brandon Woodruff are among the many intriguing starting pitchers who figure to be available this winter, and some teams would likely prefer to pay for one of those arms rather than surrendering both budget space and talent to land Keller in the winter.

Pirates Not Committed To Trading Mitch Keller

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Mitch Keller is one of the top names on the pitching market. The Pirates have generally been expected to deal him to clear payroll space and bring back controllable hitting talent. While that’s seemingly the likeliest outcome, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Pirates remain unsure of whether to trade Keller with six days before the deadline.

Keller is essentially in the first season of a four-year contract. He signed an extension in February 2024, though that left his already agreed upon salary for last year unchanged. Keller is playing on a $15MM salary this year. That’ll climb to $16.5MM, $18MM, and $20MM for the next three seasons. It takes him through his age-32 campaign.

That makes Keller the highest-paid player on the roster. It’s nevertheless quite a bit less than he’d command if he were on the open market. There’s surplus value that’d allow the Pirates to land a significant return. Keller is amidst the best season of his career. He owns a personal-low 3.53 earned run average in 125 innings. He’s only striking out 18.7% of batters faced, but he is walking fewer than 6% of opposing hitters. Keller has taken a step forward in handling left-handed hitters after struggling in that regard earlier in his career.

It’s a rock-solid #3 starter profile. Keller has been exceptionally durable and has a six-pitch arsenal that’s headlined by a 94 MPH fastball. The Bucs have reportedly gotten calls from the Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs and Mets — presumably among others that haven’t been reported. Noah Hiles of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has suggested the Cubs view Keller as something of a fallback target. The Mets are involved in the rotation market but presently more focused on the bullpen. Toronto and the Yankees still appear strongly involved in the rotation market. Teams like the Giants, Red Sox and Tigers could also pursue controllable starting pitching.

The Pirates are weighing that against the possibility of keeping Keller behind Paul Skenes in the rotation. Top prospect Bubba Chandler should be up before the end of the season. Jared Jones could return midway through the ’26 campaign. That’d be a potentially elite top four if they were all healthy. Pitcher injuries are always a concern, though, and the Pirates have run out unplayable lineups year after year. They’re unlikely to spend their way out of that problem. Even with star shortstop prospect Konnor Griffin coming through the pipeline, there’s not enough hitting talent in the organization.

Trading Keller is probably their best path to acquiring young offensive upside. Pittsburgh should also get a notable return for closer David Bednar, who is under arbitration control for another season after this one. Setup man Dennis Santana has built a decent amount of value as well. The Bucs aren’t expected to move Oneil Cruz unless they’re completely blown away by an offer. None of their impending free agents are going to bring much back.

General manager Ben Cherington was hired over the 2019-20 offseason. The Pirates haven’t come especially close to making the playoffs in that time. They already replaced skipper Derek Shelton earlier in the season. It stands to reason Cherington is motivated to demonstrate a path to the playoffs for the 2026 club. Trading Keller for low minors prospects wouldn’t do much to that end, so it’d make sense for them to demand high minors and/or young MLB talent.

Blue Jays Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Blue Jays are among the teams to contact the Pirates about right-hander Mitch Keller, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re the latest in a growing number of clubs reported to have interest in the 29-year-old righty, who’s also drawn looks from the Yankees, Mets and Cubs. Keller is signed through the 2028 season.

Keller’s fit with the Blue Jays is natural in many ways. Toronto will see right-handers Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer reach free agency at season’s end, vacating two spots in the rotation. Kevin Gausman is signed for only one additional year and will be a free agent in the 2026-27 offseason. Right-hander Jose Berrios has an opt-out clause in his contract that allows him to reenter the free-agent market in the 2026-27 offseason as well. Fifth starter Eric Lauer, who’s been a godsend in Toronto after signing a minor league contract, is controllable via arbitration through 2026.

[Related: Toronto Blue Jays Trade Deadline Outlook]

Adding a steady arm like Keller, who’s in his prime and affordably signed for three additional seasons, has to hold appeal for the Blue Jays — particularly given the number of pitching injuries they’ve seen among their prospect class and other young arms in recent years.

Left-handers Ricky Tiedemann and Brandon Barriera and right-handers Jake Bloss, Landen Maroudis and T.J. Brock have all undergone UCL surgery within the past 15 months. Lefty Adam Macko had knee surgery in February and has been roughed up for 23 runs in 25 Triple-A innings upon returning. Former AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah is still on the mend from last year’s UCL procedure and is only controllable through the 2027 season. Bowden Francis has been unable to replicate last year’s late-season showing and has now been out more than a month due to a shoulder impingement.

The Jays still have some notable young arms. Right-handers Trey Yesavage and Khal Stephen, their top two picks in the 2024 draft, are enjoying strong years in their first full professional seasons, and several lower-level arms have made big strides in 2025 but might still be a few years away (e.g. 2022 19th rounder Gage Stanifer, 2020 international signee Kendry Rojas). On the whole, the pitching group has still been hit with a broad range of injuries.

Keller is being paid $15MM this season — just $500K less than the Jays paid to sign the 40-year-old Scherzer to a one-year deal in free agency this past offseason and the same amount secured by older starters Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb. Keller is then owed a combined $54.5MM from 2026-28. Added to the remainder of this year’s salary, Keller has almost exactly $60MM yet to be paid out for his three-plus seasons of club control. The Jays have $184MM on next year’s books, which is $70MM less than their current payroll level.

[Related: Pittsburgh Pirates Trade Deadline Outlook]

It’s an eminently affordable rate for a pitcher of Keller’s quality. While he’s not an ace, he’s a former second-round pick and top prospect who has blossomed into a steady mid-rotation arm and could be seen by some other clubs as a pitcher with a bit of yet-untapped potential. Several Pirates pitchers — Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Joe Musgrove, Clay Holmes among them — have found new gears upon being traded to other organizations over the years, after all, and Keller is also enjoying his most successful season to date.

Through 20 starts and 119 innings, Keller has pitched to a career-best 3.48 earned run average. His 18.7% strikeout rate is a career-low, but his 5.5% walk rate is a career-best. There are some red flags, as Keller’s 93.9 mph average fastball is down a half-mile compared to last year and down 1.3 mph from his 2023 levels, but his heater has slowly gained a bit of life as the season has worn on. He’s also allowing a bit more hard contact than usual and experiencing pretty good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball ratio; his 6.7% mark in that regard is well shy of the 11.8% he carried into the season.

Even with a bit of ERA regression, however, Keller would still be a solid value at his current price, and there’s always the chance that the change in scenery unlocks another gear as well. For a Jays club that could plausibly see every current member of its rotation come off the books by the end of the 2026 season, a July acquisition of Keller would not only fortify the current roster but also represent a bit of proactive shopping.

Toronto also has a number of near-MLB position prospects who could intrigue a Pirates team that’s bereft of quality young hitters — Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, RJ Schreck, Jonatan Clase and Will Wagner among them. Not all of those names are of the caliber to be a headliner in a Keller deal, and the Bucs won’t necessarily focus solely on young hitters in a trade, but the two parties align on a potential Keller swap in many ways.

Yankees Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Yankees have shown interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re one of several clubs in the running for the 29-year-old righty, who’s signed for three additional years beyond the current season. Both the Mets and Cubs have been tied to Keller in recent weeks. Hiles adds that the Cubs currently view Keller more of a backup option in their rotation search, while the Mets are “very” interested.

Interest in Keller is only natural for the Yankees, who’ll be prominent players in the starting pitching market over the next two weeks. GM Brian Cashman acknowledged as much recently when indicating that pitching will be his top priority this summer. New York lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery before the season even began. Clarke Schmidt met the same fate earlier this month. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil still hasn’t pitched this season due to a lat strain. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough has also been out nearly a month due to an oblique strain.

At the moment, the Yankees have Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and rookies Will Warren and Cam Schlittler in the rotation. The hope is that Gil, who’s already on a minor league rehab assignment, can strengthen that group soon. In theory, Yarbrough shouldn’t be far behind, but he’s yet to begin a rehab stint. That assumes no setbacks and a return to pre-injury form though — neither of which is a guarantee.

Keller has started 20 games for Pittsburgh and boasts a 3.48 ERA. He’s punched out 18.7% of his opponents and turned in a career-low 5.5% walk rate. Keller has been on a particularly strong run of late, pitching into the sixth inning or later in 13 consecutive starts and compiling a 3.04 ERA over 80 innings in that time. Ten of those appearances have been quality starts. Dating back to 2022, Keller is tied for the seventh-most starts (112) and tenth-most innings (650 1/3) in all of Major League Baseball.

Bringing Keller into the fold would make sense both to help this season and to provide some future stability. Stroman is a free agent at season’s end. Neither Warren nor Schlittler has cemented himself as a long-term rotation cog yet. Cole’s rehab will probably extend beyond Opening Day next year. Schmidt, given the timing of his surgery, won’t make it back to the mound until at least late next year — possibly not until 2027.

Keller would add durability to that group and create the possibility of a very strong midseason rotation next year. Health for all parties can’t necessarily be assumed, but there’d be a real chance that by June or so, the Yankees could deploy a rotation including Cole, Fried, Rodon, Keller and Gil, with Warren and Schlittler as the sixth and seventh arms on the depth chart. That sort of depth would rank among the best in baseball.

There are other factors to consider. Keller is midway through the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract. He’s being paid $15MM in 2025 and will earn salaries of $16.5MM, $18MM and $20MM over the next three seasons. That’s fine value for a mid-rotation arm of Keller’s caliber — particularly if you believe there’s still a bit of untapped upside in the former second-round pick and top prospect — but the Yankees would be on the hook for a good bit more than that due to their luxury tax status.

As of this writing, Keller has about $5.89MM of this year’s salary yet to be paid out. Add that to his future salaries and he’s still owed about $60.39MM over the next three-plus seasons. The Yankees would be taxed at a 110% clip on the roughly $17.8MM annual value of that remainder — assuming they remain in the top tier of luxury penalization moving forward, which seems like a good bet.

RosterResource projects the Yankees with about $187MM of luxury obligations in 2026, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, Fernando Cruz, Schmidt and Gil. Keller would add another $17.8MM to that number, and the Yankees will be in the market for help at third base, center field and in the bullpen this winter (depending on their trade deadline activity, of course). Each of Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver is a free agent in a few months. Even if the Yankees were able to drop down into only the third tier of penalization, they’d still pay a 90% tax on Keller’s remaining annual value.

If the Pirates do move Keller, they’ll presumably be most motivated by MLB-ready position players. Pittsburgh is deep in intriguing young arms (and just added another, Seth Hernandez, with the sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft) but hasn’t had much success in terms of developing young hitters. That’s not to say they’d have no interest in further stockpiling young pitching, but their aim over the next couple weeks is surely to add at least a few young hitters of note to help bolster a stagnant offense that ranks last in the majors in runs scored, home runs and slugging percentage.

Mets Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Mets have shown interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, according to Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  New York joins the Cubs as teams known to be linked to Keller, who placed second on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 40 trade candidates heading into the deadline.

It was just a week ago that the Mets got an up-close look at Keller when he held them to one run over 5 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh’s 9-1 victory over New York on June 27.  That outing was part of a nice five-start stretch for Keller that has seen the righty post a 2.40 ERA over his last 30 innings of work.  For the season as a whole, Keller has a 3.64 ERA over 106 1/3 innings, delivering both quality and reliability over his regular turns in the Pittsburgh rotation.

This durability likely has particular appeal for a Mets pitching staff that has been hit hard by injuries.  Of the five pitchers who have tossed the most innings for New York this season, Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill are on the 15-day injured list, and Griffin Canning recent underwent a season-ending surgery to fix a ruptured Achilles.  Sean Manaea has yet to pitch this season due to an oblique strain and then a loose body found in his throwing elbow, but he is scheduled to make his return from the IL before the All-Star break.

Since Senga could also be back within the week, the Mets could roll with a rotation of Senga, Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Frankie Montas through July to see if this starting five is enough to strengthen the team’s hopes of capturing the NL East and then a World Series title.  Given all of the question marks within that group, adding a stable arm like Keller would certainly seem like a logical move to keep the rotation strong for the stretch run.

Beyond the prospect cost of a Keller trade, the Mets would face a particular financial penalty if they were to take on most or all of the right-hander’s remaining contract.  Keller is owed the remainder of his $15MM salary for 2025, and is then owed $54.5MM over the course of the 2026-28 seasons.  That would put another hefty commitment on the books for a Mets team whose luxury tax number (roughly $326.8MM, as per RosterResource) is well over the maximum tax penalty tier of $301MM.

Some salary offset could be included in any potential trade between the Mets and Pirates, though that would run counter to the Bucs’ desire to shed some payroll by moving Keller in the first place.  With so much young pitching either already in Pittsburgh’s rotation or on the cusp of the majors, the thinking has been that the Pirates would move at least one or both of Keller and impending free agent Andrew Heaney in order to add some young talent (probably on the offensive side), create more openings for Triple-A call-ups, and to create financial flexibility.

“There seems to be a line of thinking where if they can get that money off the payroll, it can be used to acquire a hitter,” a source tells Hiles, which perhaps hints at a scenario where the Pirates could then pivot to acquire a somewhat pricey bat (likely a veteran).  This would indicate a strategy of both selling and buying at the deadline, with the additions being aimed for either the future or perhaps even the short-term.  Despite their 38-51 record, the Pirates haven’t yet fully committed to a full-on sale at the deadline, as the source says that the club’s 6-0 homestand this week might have created some hope that a later surge is possible.

Broadly, the team has played better since Derek Shelton was fired as manager, and interim skipper Don Kelly has led the team to a 26-25 record.  Still, the Bucs remain solidly in last place in the NL Central, and it would take a major hot streak just to get to .500, let alone in contention.  While Pittsburgh might not be ready to explore trades this early into July, the team remains “one of a few teams expected to sell this trade season,” as Hiles puts it.  It is also fair to assume that the budget-conscious Pirates would always be open moving Keller’s contract regardless of their place in the standings, even in the unlikely scenario that the team does catch fire in the weeks leading up to the deadline.

Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?

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The second year of the Paul Skenes era in Pittsburgh is not going well. The Pirates are currently 35-50, leaving them buried in both the NL Central and the Wild Card race. The Bucs stand as one of the few clear sellers this summer, and it seems as though the team is operating with very few untouchables. One of the names that’s gotten the a good bit of buzz this summer is right-hander Mitch Keller, who has drawn attention as one of the few established, controllable starting pitchers with a chance to be dealt.

The Cubs have come up as a potential suitor for Keller, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the sides have been discussing a deal for more than a week. That’s not necessarily an indication that a trade, whether with the Cubs or otherwise, is particularly close. Still, it lends credence to the idea that the Pirates are serious in their willingness to consider moving the right-hander. That’s at least a mild surprise, given that he’s in just the second season of a five-year contract, but there’s a case to be made that the Pirates should capitalize right now.

After all, Keller is making $54.5MM over the final three years of his contract. That’s a below-market sum for a solid mid-rotation veteran but still steep for the perennially low-budget Pirates. Pittsburgh has already assembled an impressive group of young pitching talent with Skenes, top prospect Bubba Chandler, and injured-but-talented righty Jared Jones leading the pack. With affordable arms like Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington already having debuted, and well-regarded prospect Hunter Barco not far behind, the Pirates are amassing some enviable pitching depth. (That doesn’t include left-hander Bailey Falter, who’s affordably controlled for three more seasons.)

Pittsburgh would arguably be better off spending Keller’s salary on some sorely needed offense. Teoscar Hernandez, for example, signed with the Dodgers for a similar amount: $66MM over three years, with enough money deferred to lower the net present value of the contract to just under $60MM. Gleyber Torres, Tyler O’Neill, Christian Walker, and Pete Alonso are among the other hitters who signed for $60MM or less guaranteed this past winter. Not all of those deals have worked out, and there are always dangers of spending on even mid-range free agents like this, but the Pirates could have made reasonably competitive bids for some notable veterans on the open market with a sum comparable to what they still owe Keller.

Aside from the ability to reallocate financial resources, moving Keller would surely come with a solid return. Cost-controlled starting pitching is typically the most valuable commodity on the trade market, and while Keller is hardly elite given his 109 ERA+ this year, his affordable contract and year-to-year stability would give the acquiring club additional long-term certainty in their rotation that a rental pitcher like Zac Gallen could offer.

Using the Cubs’ system as an example due to their status as a rumored suitor for Keller, it’s easy to see why the Pirates might be willing to deal within the division. Chicago has a number of quality position player prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. Outfielder Owen Caissie has 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+ at Triple-A Iowa as a 22-year-old this year. Catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros, outfielder Kevin Alcantara, and infielder James Triantos are all close to MLB-ready as well. Triantos’ stock is down after a difficult and injury-marred start to the 2025 season, but a package centering around one of those other young hitters could be appealing for a Pirates club that is looking to players like Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz to fill out the middle of its order at present. Other clubs with upper-level position player prospects have undoubtedly inquired on Keller, too.

As appealing as some of the arguments for trading Keller may be, there are real concerns that would come with making a deal. Keller was once looked at as a potential No. 2 starter during his prospect days and, while he hasn’t lived up to that potential yet, he’s not far removed from a three-WAR season wherein he struck out 25.5% of his opponents. His 4.21 ERA that year was pedestrian, but his 3.83 SIERA was 18th-best in baseball among qualified starters, just behind Logan Gilbert and ahead of players like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease. Keller is still just 29 years old, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to take a step forward in the middle of his prime. If the Pirates believe Keller still has another gear, they might prefer to hold onto him in hopes that he can unlock it and increase his trade value or his value to the Pirates themselves.

Aside from the possibility of selling at less than peak value, it’s worth noting how much uncertainty there is when it comes to developing pitching. The Tigers drafted Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize back in 2018 but only began to truly see the fruits of that labor last year after both players were derailed by injuries early in their career. Jones is already recovering from elbow surgery, and with pitching injuries seemingly more frequent than ever, it can be hard to part with a steady arm like Keller. Given the soaring price of pitching in free agency, the Pirates would likely have to keep scoring deals on low-cost veterans like they did with Andrew Heaney this year in order to fill out and create depth behind their young rotation mix.

How do MLBTR readers think the Pirates should act regarding Keller? Should they move to trade him in order to help boost the offense for their young arms, or should they hang onto him as a veteran presence and hope he can increase his value from here? Have your say in the poll below:

Pirates Reportedly Have Very Few Untouchable Players At Trade Deadline

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The Pirates will be deadline sellers yet again, which should be clear to anyone who takes a glance at their 32-50 record and -68 run differential. There’d been hope earlier in the year among some fanbases that Pittsburgh would even weigh the merits of trading ace Paul Skenes for what would perhaps have to be the richest trade return in history, but GM Ben Cherington has publicly quashed speculation on that front. Outside of Skenes, however, it seems the Bucs will be broadly open for business. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Heyman of the New York Post have both reported within the past 18 hours that Skenes and franchise icon Andrew McCutchen — who has repeatedly stated since his return to Pittsburgh a few years ago that he has no desire to play elsewhere — are the only two big leaguers who are seen as off the table.

That seemingly puts not only the expected trade candidates in play (e.g. Andrew Heaney, David Bednar, Dennis Santana, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, etc.), but also more controllable names like center fielder Oneil Cruz and longtime stars like outfielder Bryan Reynolds and right-hander Mitch Keller, both of whom signed an extension within the past two years. The Bucs surely aren’t going to move top prospect Bubba Chandler, but the majority of their major league roster could at least be discussed.

Keller stands as one of the most interesting names to watch, not just on the Pirates, but around the league as a whole. The former second-rounder is in the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract and being paid $15MM this year. He’s owed $16.5MM in 2026, $18MM in 2027 and $20MM in 2028. That’s a steep cost for the low-payroll Pirates but affordable for many clubs, particularly given the increasing prices of free-agent pitching on the open market.

The 29-year-old Keller isn’t an ace but was thought to have No. 2-3 starter upside in his days as a top prospect. He’s settled in a step below that, regularly giving the Bucs plenty of innings and an ERA in the low 4.00s with quality rate stats. The 2025 season is no exception. Keller is sitting on a 4.02 ERA in 94 innings. He’s averaged just under six frames per start this season. His 18.5% strikeout rate is a career-low, but Keller’s 6.1% walk rate is excellent and his 45.5% ground-ball rate is strong. Keller’s velocity is down a touch, sitting 93.9 mph in 2025 after averaging 94.4 mph in 2024 and 95.2 mph in 2023, but he’s picking up steam as the season goes along. He sat 93.5 mph in March/April but has averaged 94.1 mph since the calendar flipped to May, for instance.

The current version of Keller would draw plenty of interest even if he weren’t to make any gains with a new club, though teams around the league could well hope that Keller is the latest premier starter to thrive upon being traded away from the Pirates. Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow and Joe Musgrove have all gone on to enjoy top-of-the-rotation success upon being traded by Pittsburgh. Keller, a former top prospect with a 6’3″, 212-pound frame who’s shown flashes of greater bat-missing potential — he struck out 25.5% of his opponents in 2023 — could prove tantalizing, particularly in a market that’s thin on pitching.

Rosenthal suggests that with Pirates not enjoying the attendance increase they likely expected at the time Keller was extended — the Bucs were hopeful of emerging from their rebuild at that point, but injuries and downturns from young players have scuttled that thought — the right-hander and his increasing salary could be more likely to move. Heyman suggests that a Keller trade isn’t as likely due to what’ll surely be a steep asking price.

Given the dearth of starters on the trade market and the deep stock of young arms the Pirates have cultivated, it does seem there’s a real chance to cash in on Keller. Skenes is already cemented as the Pirates’ ace. Jared Jones will miss this season but hopefully return in the first half of 2026. Chandler will debut this summer, and the list of rotation candidates beyond that trio include Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, Bailey Falter (if he’s not traded) and the currently injured Johan Oviedo. Additional arms could join that contingent within the next five weeks, as the Pirates will be adding various new prospects and/or young big leaguers via a series of trades.

A trade of Reynolds would be more difficult to engineer. The 30-year-old is signed through 2030 but is currently scuffling through his least-productive season since the shortened 2020 campaign. In 330 plate appearances, Reynolds carries a tepid .233/.303/.372 batting line — 14% worse than average production, by measure of wRC+. That’s not what a team would want from any player, of course, but it’s magnified by his seven-year, $100MM contract extension, which stands as the largest deal in franchise history.

Reynolds, however, is still hitting the ball on the screws; in fact, he’s hitting the ball harder than ever before. This year’s 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate are career-highs. His 10.7% barrel rate is just barely shy of his career-best 11.1% in 2023 — a season in which he produced a much more robust .263/.330/.460 output and slugged 24 homers. Reynolds is hitting just .600 on line-drives this year, and while “just .600” sounds like a ridiculous statement, the league-average on liners is .705 and his career mark entering the year was .697.

It’s not all bad luck driving his downturn at the plate. Reynolds’ 25.8% strikeout rate is a career-high in a 162-game season, although even that’s a bit misleading. The switch-hitter’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 25.1% chase rate on pitches off the plate both stand as the second-best marks of his career. His 72.6 mph bat speed, per Statcast, is actually his highest mark since that stat began being tracked in 2023. Reynolds isn’t punching out more because he’s expanding the zone or because he’s no longer capable of catching up to velocity; he’s simply swinging less, particularly within the strike zone, which seems more correctable than a decline in bat speed or erosion of plate discipline.

Reynolds is being paid $12MM this season and has five years and $76MM left on his contract thereafter. He hit decently in May before falling back into a slump, but Reynolds has shown some signs of life with eight hits (three doubles) over his past four games. If he can keep building up momentum, it’s possible a well-timed hot streak and this year’s gaudy batted-ball metrics will generate some interest. Still, his contract contains a limited six-team no-trade clause, and while we saw Rafael Devers shipped out just a few weeks ago, it’s nonetheless exceedingly rare to see a player traded when he has this much time left on a guaranteed contract.

Cruz, 26, is the other name who is notable by his absence from Pittsburgh’s list of purportedly untouchable players. He long rated as one of the organization’s top prospects and one of the top prospects in the entire sport. He posted monster numbers in April and hit decently in May before falling into an awful slump this month. Cruz carried a .230/.347/.481 batting line into June but has cratered with a .148/.247/.210 line this month. He’s now hitting .205/.317/.398 on the season.

It’s an unexciting line, but Cruz has some of the loudest tools in the game. He’s a towering 6’7″, 240 pounds and offers explosive athleticism. Cruz is 26-for-29 in stolen base attempts this season and has swatted 13 home runs. He’s averaging a ridiculous 96 mph off the bat with a 22% barrel rate and a 56.7% hard-hit rate. Only Aaron Judge has a higher barrel rate. Only Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and James Wood have better hard-hit rates. No one in MLB has a higher average exit velocity or higher bat speed.

There are major hit tool concerns, evidenced by this year’s 33% strikeout rate and Cruz’s career 31.9% mark. However, Cruz is walking at a stout 13.5% clip as well and has actually reduced his chase rate and swinging-strike rate over last year’s levels. Like Reynolds, he’s swinging far less often this season; Cruz swung at 46.2% of the pitches he saw last year (and 61.3% of the strikes he saw) compared to just 40.7% in 2025 (and 55.9% of the strikes he’s seen). The team’s overall swing rate on pitches within the zone from 2024 to 2025 is virtually unchanged, but for whatever reason, Cruz and Reynolds have taken up much more passive approaches — ostensibly to their detriment.

Cruz has gone from a poor-fielding shortstop to a passable center field defender while learning his new position on the fly at the big league level. His plus-plus speed and elite arm strength — he not-so-shockingly leads all big leaguers in arm strength as well, per Statcast — lend themselves well to center field. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if he emerged as a plus defender there as he gains experience. Cruz was benched earlier this week for failing to run out a grounder that someone with his speed should easily have been able to beat, resulting in an inning-ending double play, but he said after the game that he’d lost track of the number of outs. Cruz took fault for the situation and said he supported manager Don Kelly’s decision to lift him from the game (link via the Associated Press).

Even if Cruz’s recent struggles persist, the asking price in a trade would presumably be enormous. Players with this type of tool set simply don’t come around often. Add in that he’s controllable via arbitration for three years after the current season, and Pittsburgh would need a substantial return to consider parting ways with him. The upside on Cruz is so great that it’s hard to see the Pirates actually trading him, but he’ll be a fascinating long-shot target for teams seeking center field help.

There are plenty of other trade candidates to consider. Lefty relievers Caleb Ferguson and veteran infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier are on a cheap one-year deals and could be moved. The Bucs would likely love to shed the four years and $36MM owed to third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes beyond the current season. He’s still an elite defender, but chronic back problems that developed after he signed his $70MM extension have severely sapped his production at the plate.

Latest On Cubs’ Rotation Targets

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The Cubs are on the hunt for rotation upgrades — a fact that’s both been widely reported and publicly confirmed by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. It’s easy enough to see why. Ace Justin Steele was lost for the season due to elbow surgery back in April. Shota Imanaga is returning to the rotation tomorrow, his first start since a hamstring injury sent him to the 15-day IL back on May 4. Javier Assad hasn’t pitched this year due to multiple oblique strains. Young right-hander Ben Brown was optioned to Triple-A yesterday amid ongoing struggles. Swingman Colin Rea, moved into the rotation during that injury deluge, has begun to struggle after initially excelling in a starting role.

Few teams have decided on a deadline direction yet, but Chicago has already been in contact with some clubs that know they’ll operate as sellers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Cubs have inquired on Marlins right-handers Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Cubs also have some interest in Pirates righty Mitch Keller (as well as closer David Bednar). He adds that they’ve kept tabs on A’s righty Luis Severino before quickly downplaying the possibility that the Athletics would actually trade the veteran right-hander in the first season of his three-year, $67MM contract.

There are surely other names on the Cubs’ radar, but the early connections are notable. That’s particularly true on the heels of 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reporting earlier this week that the Cubs are being aggressive and are hoping to push something across the finish line well ahead of next month’s deadline — perhaps even within the next week to ten days (audio link). Levine suggested that Alcantara was not the likeliest target and that someone a bit more under the radar was more probable.

The Marlins duo stand as obvious trade candidates. Alcantara entered the season as perhaps the most plain-as-day trade candidate in the sport. The 2022 NL Cy Young winner is in his first full season back from a Tommy John procedure that cost him all of the 2024 campaign. He’s earning $17MM this year and next, and the Marlins hold a $21MM club option for the 2027 season.

Alcantara, 29, didn’t do his trade candidacy any favors early on. He pitched to an awful 8.47 ERA through the end of May, striking out only 16.9% of opponents against a 12.2% walk rate along the way. He’s since shown signs of life. Alcantara has pitched 23 innings over his past four starts and allowed a total of seven runs (2.74 ERA) on 18 hits and five walks with 19 strikeouts (20.4 K%, 5.4 BB%). His 46.4% grounder rate in that time is comfortably better than average but a ways from its 53.4% peak. His fastball velocity hasn’t been much of a question all year, averaging better than 97 mph — 97.6 mph over his past four starts. That’s down a slight bit from his 98 mph average pre-surgery, but not by an alarming measure.

If Alcantara can continue distancing himself from that bleak two-month start and continue resembling his 2022 self, the chances of a trade will only increase. Every club with even a glimmer of postseason contention would love to add the two-time All-Star with his ability to its staff, particularly when considering the relatively affordable nature of his salary under the terms of the contract extension he signed a few years back. The asking price on Alcantara figures to be steep, however, and the Marlins may wish to hold him a bit longer to allow him to continue posting improved results and further drum up interest. If that’s the case, the timing may not align with Chicago’s more urgent push for a starting pitcher.

Cabrera, 27, isn’t as well-known as his teammate but was a highly touted pitching prospect himself prior to his big league debut. He’s shown glimpses of that potential in the past, but the 2025 campaign thus far has the makings of a possible breakout. In 59 innings, Cabrera has pitched to a 3.81 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 10.2% walk rate and a 42.9% ground-ball rate. He’s averaging a career-best 96.7 mph on his four-seamer, has ramped the usage of his sinker up to a career-high 23% and is throwing more sliders than he has in the past two seasons.

Cabrera entered the 2025 season with 2.147 years of major league service. That was enough for him to reach Super Two designation, meaning he’s already gone through the arbitration process once, coming away with a modest $1.95MM salary. He’ll be owed a raise in each of the next three offseasons before hitting free agency following the 2028 season. He’s nowhere near as established as Alcantara or Keller — Cabrera has never even pitched 100 innings in a big league season — but his power arsenal, low salary and that remaining club control hold obvious appeal.

Turning to the Pirates, Keller is a sensible enough trade candidate, even though the Bucs probably aren’t in a rush to trade him. He’s only in the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract. The former second-round pick and top prospect is earning $15MM this year, and that extension (which tacked four years and $71.6MM onto his previously agreed upon arbitration salary for 2024) calls for salaries of $16.5MM, $18MM and $20MM in the three subsequent seasons.

Keller has appeared in at least 31 games in each of the past three seasons and is on pace to do so again in 2025. He’s started 16 games and totaled 94 innings with a 4.02 ERA, an 18.5% strikeout rate, a 6.1% walk rate and a 45.5% ground-ball rate. That strikeout rate is down from 23.5% he posted in 2023-24, but Keller is getting more grounders and issuing fewer walks than in those seasons. His velocity is down about a half-mile per hour from last year, with his average four-seamer clocking in at 93.9 mph and his average sinker at 92.8 mph. Keller has made some alterations to his pitch selection, throwing his sinker less and his slider at a career-high 34.9% rate. He’s also ditched his cutter and is reincorporating a changuep that he effectively shelved for 2024.

The possibility of an intradivision trade with a player of this caliber is fascinating, if only because it rarely occurs. The Pirates are deep in pitching talent, however, with Paul Skenes anchoring the rotation and Bubba Chandler — perhaps MLB’s top pitching prospect — seemingly ready to go in Triple-A. Bailey Falter is a relative veteran at this point, and the Pirates have a deep stock of additional young arms including Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, Thomas Harrington and Hunter Barco. Jared Jones underwent Tommy John surgery this summer but looked promising as a rookie last year. Johan Oviedo was a solid fourth starter in 2023 before his own Tommy John procedure. Veteran Andrew Heaney is eating innings in the rotation right now but seems like a lock to be traded before the deadline if he’s healthy.

Whether that depth would be enough to persuade the Pirates to part with Keller is an open question. This is Ben Cherington’s sixth year as Pirates general manager, and the Bucs haven’t won more than 76 games in a season during his tenure. Trading Keller would be more akin to the large-scale rebuilding moves made earlier in his tenure, but if a trade partner were to give up immediate MLB talent, it wouldn’t necessarily indicate a step back. Dealing from a position of strength and then using the money that had been earmarked for Keller to bolster other areas of the staff could make good sense. Of course, given the Pirates’ history, it can’t be assumed that owner Bob Nutting would just pump Keller’s salary right back into the payroll by way of offseason free-agent signings or trade acquisitions.

From the Cubs’ stance, Keller or Alcantara would fit nicely into the payroll (and Cabrera even more so, of course). They’re veterans on the sort of mid-range contracts Cubs ownership seems to prefer with regard to pitchers.

The Cubs only have about $123MM in guarantees on the books next year, though that number will almost certainly rise to $138MM when the team picks up a three-year club option on Imanaga. Even still, that leaves plenty of room for Keller, Alcantara or just about any other rotation target. Assuming that Imanaga option is exercised, he and Dansby Swanson will be the only players signed beyond 2026. The Cubs obviously hope to extend Pete Crow-Armstrong and re-sign Kyle Tucker, but those goals arguably only increase the importance of finding some cost-effective ways to round out the starting staff.

Which Arms Could The Pirates *Actually* Trade This Summer?

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This week's report that there's "no chance" the Pirates trade ace Paul Skenes, just one and a half seasons into his six-year window of club control, stood out as fairly obvious for most onlookers. That anyone felt it needed to be said at all was more a reflection on the organization as a whole than Skenes himself.

Pittsburgh has taken a step back this season, sitting on pace to win 56 games after winning 76 games in both 2023 and 2024. A rebuild that has seen the Bucs pick ninth or better in five consecutive drafts, including No. 1 overall in 2021 and 2023, has not only failed to produce a contender -- it's failed to even produce a farm system that ranks in the top third of MLB. The team at Baseball America ranked the Pirates with MLB's 16th-best system prior to this season. Keith Law of The Athletic did the same. MLB.com's trio of Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra ranked the Bucs 14th. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel was more bearish, ranking them 20th.

The Pirates already fired manager Derek Shelton. General manager Ben Cherington can't feel as secure as he did a few seasons ago. Owner Bob Nutting bears the brunt of the blame; his refusal to invest in the roster leaves the front office and coaching staff zero margin for error. Nutting's overwhelmingly frugal nature also leaves veritably no chance that Skenes will be signed long-term.

Just because a trade at some point down the road feels inevitable, however, does not mean it'll happen this year. That's never seemed likely, and while the "no way, no chance, no how" quote was from a Pirates executive who preferred to remain anonymous rather than place their name on those words, GM Ben Cherington soon offered a similar sentiment on the record.

The Pirates, for all their warts, are still a pitching-rich organization. The name at the very top of the pyramid may not be on the move, but the Pirates will have no shortage of pitchers who are legitimately available this summer. There's always a broad range of "availability." Pure veteran rentals will probably be aggressively shopped. Pitchers signed/controlled through 2026 will presumably be available but with a higher price tag. And there will be some arms with even more club control on whom the Bucs will listen but not outright dangle to contenders seeking to bolster their own staffs.

Let's run through some of the likely available inventory.

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