With Jose Altuve again starring in a deep Astros postseason run, it isn’t any surprise that the club wants to retain its longtime star. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Houston wants to keep Altuve in the fold for the rest of his career, and the time for negotiating is nearing, as 2024 is the final year of the second baseman’s current contract.
“The Astros privately say their focus is squarely on Altuve,” Nightengale writes, which is perhaps notable simply because Altuve isn’t the only prominent Houston player approaching the end of his deal. Alex Bregman will also be a free agent after the 2024 season, and Ryan Pressly might also hit the open market since he and the Astros share a $14MM mutual option for 2025 (though this option vests if Pressly makes at least 50 appearances in 2024). Justin Verlander could also be a free agent if he doesn’t pitch at least 140 innings next season, but if he does hit that threshold, he’ll gain a $35MM player option for 2025 that he might well choose to exercise for what would be his age-42 season.
Of course, nothing is stopping the Astros from also exploring extensions with any of these other players. However, it could be that Altuve is seen as a particular priority given his status as a franchise icon. The story of Altuve’s rise from obscure international prospect to cornerstone player has been well-documented, and there isn’t much indication that Altuve is slowing down in his age-33 season. Though he was limited to 90 games in 2023 due to a broken thumb and an oblique strain, Altuve still hit .311/.393/.522 over 410 plate appearances during the regular season, and he has a .970 OPS over 24 PA in the first five games of the ALCS.
Altuve’s current deal overwrote the last two years of his previous extension with the Astros, and guaranteed him $151MM over the course of the 2020-24 seasons. Another five-year extension that began with the 2025 season would therefore run through Altuve’s age-39 season, and quite possibly the end of his career.
Estimating a dollar figure for a hypothetical Altuve extension is an interesting exercise, considering that Altuve is represented by the Boras Corporation (who also handled the second baseman’s previous deal). The majority of Scott Boras clients generally head to free agency to let the open market determine their earnings, and Altuve’s performance certainly would seem to still merit a hefty salary even through his mid-to-late 30’s. That said, it also seems plausible that Altuve might at least consider some level of hometown discount, thus freeing some more money for the Astros to keep the core together. Besides Bregman, Pressly, and Verlander, there is also the trio of Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Urquidy all nearing free agency once their arbitration eligibility is up following the 2025 campaign.
The Astros have surpassed the luxury tax threshold only once (in 2020) in franchise history, as Houston has been able to sustain its run of success while keeping their payroll in relative check. While frequently landing within the top 10 of Opening Day payrolls, Houston ranked only 14th in spending at the start of this season. The Astros have been willing to let some stars walk, such as Carlos Correa after the 2021 season or Verlander last winter (before Verlander was re-acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline).
Other extensions have also played a role in the Astros’ budget management, as the team was proactive in locking up some young stars relatively early in their careers. Bregman was signed to a five-year/$100MM extension, Yordan Alvarez to a six-year/$118MM extension, and Cristian Javier to a five-year/$64MM long-term pact. Alvarez, Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. are the only Astros players on the books beyond the 2025 season.
There’s no reason to extend a 34 year old second baseman. Enjoy his services next season and let him walk. Tucker is the face of the future.
Tucker and Alvarez are not good enough alone. Altuve is the heart of that team and a total stud. They are much worse without him. If they let anyone walk it should be Bregman.
I agree that Tucker and Alvarez can’t carry the offense alone. Signing Altuve to a deal that is more to do with emotion and nostalgia doesn’t make sense and those deals rarely work. Altuve is aging well but it can all fall apart at anytime. A 2 year deal with big money and then year by year is the way to go imo. No one beats father time.
CfNJ
No one can carry an offense alone
No two players can carry an offense
Alvarez is another Otiz.
Yea and no. Alvarez is actually a decent LF. Not great, but decent. I do miss watching Papi hit bombs though.
Be serious. If 35-year-old Altuve departs, the Astros will use his $29 million salary to greatly improve the team.
That’s sound logic.
Altuve just put up a 4 fWAR season in limited playing time
That’s going to be hard to upgrade on
Let’s also be serious that MLB is a business and Altuve is a face of their current franchise. And regardless of who and what star appeal they have, will not instantly become as synonymous with the Club as he is. So comparing it dollar for dollar doesn’t really work, as a player in Altuve’s position with his Franchise likely generates enough $ that has contract pays for itself as well as profit on top of that. So ultimately their are a handful of players if that they could invest $29 million on and generate the same marketing revenue from.
Also a fair point
Wow Altuve is aging fast he went from 33 to 35 in just a few posts.
Fake ID, he’s really 63
Skell
“There’s no reason to extend a 34 year old second baseman”
Well, that’s just not true.
In this case it is if you are talking anything over $20M a year. Look at his dWAR -1.0, -1.2 last 2 years. SO rate is also way up. He would have struck out well over 100 times this year had he not been injured. These are telltale signs of an aging player.
Degaz
In specific cases it may be true
As a general truth, as Skell started, it’s definitely not true
Baaaaaad take: are you watching this ALCS? That’s why they will extend Altuve; & he’s a future Hall of Famer, regardless of the cheating. Oh, and your buddy Tucker is batting .143 this postseason, total choke artist.
DbB
People who don’t understand finance get way too hung up on years
Teams always want more years and players always want fewer.
Suppose a player was willing to sign for 3 years at $25 million per year. The team would almost certainly prefer 6 years at $15 million, for example.
Yep and he has his QO left. Get a draft pick for him if nothing else.
DR
One reason to extend him 6 years would be to lower the AAV of the deal
A 3 year $25 million per year deal is roughly equivalent to a 6 year $15 million per year deal
The team would almost certainly prefer the longer deal. Altuve would likely prefer the shorter one (no pun intended).
Tucker is really doing a lot this postseason to establish he is the leader of the Astros. LOL terrible take. Alvarez is the future of this team, Tucker should be as well. But he needs to prove it when it counts most.
Agree with you on Altuve. Not so sure about Tucker. Alvarez is the keystone in the lineup. He’s routinely one of the top hitters in MLB.
I have no particular love for Altuve, I do believe they cheated and he was hiding some kind of device on his chest when he told them to not rip his shirt off, etc. but there’s no denying he’s been a spark for the Astros over the years and has basically lived up to that contract, especially when you factor in his earlier underpays and the overall AAV of his extension combined with his early deal prior to the extension, plus what he does in the post season, regardless of his regular season stats.
If they are gonna try to make it a 5 year deal with an idea toward him calling it a career at the end of it- just speculation from the article, but I’ll go with it, I imagine 2 years/$65M coupled with 2 years/$55M coupled with 1 year/$25M for a total contract of 5 years/$145M valuation, or a continued $29M a year for an equivalent contract of 12 years/$308.5M would, insane as it is, be fair.
Plus, it’s not like I wouldn’t mind Houston being saddled with a $29M a year albatross or anything like that…
Heck, give him $40M a year over 5 years for all I care.
I think Houston should sign Altuve to 5 years/$200M, Bregman to 5 years/$200M etc.
Why not?
He wasn’t hiding he just shy
And the glove didn’t fit OJ…
WAY too much. His D is a liability now
Stop talking about his D, it’s inappropriate!
Why is Boras the only agent talked about as always seeking the top dollar for his clients? I would think every agent is seeking the most money most of the time.
He’s usually talked about as the agent most well known for consistently taking his players to free agency to explore the market.
And it’s also a statement from the players when they hire Boras, as you see a lot of players do before they hit free agency. Boras means the home team is about to pay out the @ss to keep you around or else you’re out. It’s part of the deal.
Usually his clients dont sign team friendly extensions, something in this case which would be necessary.
Boras clients have signed some team-friendly extensions, just like clients of other agencies. He’s the only agent everybody knows so it seems like it’s easy to dump on him. And of course, some of the things he says makes it even easier.
@Gb42 Can you give examples of these team-friendly deals?
Bogaerts signed one and then the Red Sox kicked him in the balls when it was time to make things right.
How did the Red Sox kick Bogaerts in the balls? By not offering him $280M?
He didn’t have an awful contract. unlike Albies and Acuña. I’m not sure why everybody doesn’t know their agents’ names so players know who to avoid.
But you can be sure that everybody who needs to know does know the agents’ names.
Boras is viewed as the best at what he does, so he’s drawing in the names that will generate the most press as well as the players who are most likely or about to hit free agency. Players signing early extensions are unlikely to sign with him as they can sign with other agents for a smaller fee as they won’t be testing free agency and benefit from his services.
The face of the franchise and most likely a Hall of Fame inductee even with the cheating scandal, but the Astros would be wise not to sign him to anything more than three years with two extra years of options that would kick in if he hits certain marks and milestones with the team.
Problem is there are probably six or seven teams that would be in on a three year contract for Altuve.
And Astros would match nearly any offer unless it was utterly absurd. He is more valuable to them than he is to any other team from a marketing standpoint. And I’m sure with his age and what franchise has done while he is has been there they re likely hoping that he spends his entire career with the franchise. That is something that is becoming more and more rare and there is value to it after a players career ends.
You can never have enough cheaters on your team!
True, just ask every other team in 2017. Sorry that the Astros were just better at it than whomever your favorite team is.
I’m saying they all cheat but how would them getting caught merit a “best at it” comment. Wouldn’t that make them the worst at it?
They won the World Series, that’s why they were made to be the villains. Does everyone still whine about BOS and NYY from 2017 when they were caught? Nope. Several former major league players have implicated numerous other teams. But those teams didn’t win the World Series. Colorado was one such team, but they couldn’t even win by cheating, so why would anyone care? It’s the society we live in where everyone gets to point their faux outrage at a particular target because it’s the low hanging fruit.
Every team was told to quit doing it. The Trashtros kept doing it. That’s why they became the villains
They did continue after being warned, but no, people, ESPECIALLY SPORTS FANS, are not inherently morally driven. Your take is saying that it’s ok everyone cheated, but shame on the Astros for doing after being told no. Terrible, awful take. I don’t know you, but I’m confident you are better than that.
This conversation would be entirely different, albeit nonexistent, had the Astros not even made the playoffs. It’s entirely rooted in the foundation that they won, and MLB was forced to act. It’s incredibly interesting how the Yankees have a lawsuit in place to keep “damning evidence” from coming to light. MLB knew of all the cheating, same as the steroid era. It was good for business.
It’s not my take, it’s the league’s stated reason for their decision to single out the trashtros for punishment
You continually call them the trashtros shows how feeble your vernacular is, and that they live rent free.
It doesn’t seem to me that they singled out the Astros. It seems to me with all 3 teams that were brought to light they tried to wind the situation down with each one. Id guess the problem was much more widespread than Astros, Yankees, Red Sox. Now nobody seemingly went as far as banging trash cans to transmit info, but I ve gotta believe most teams at leat delved into some type of illegal use of technology for an edge. We ve also seen NFL teams caught for similar type of things. Unfortunately in pro sports teams have always pushed rules to the limit and with today’s technology it has provided alot more opportunity to entice teams.
If Altuve bats .280 and averages 550 at-bats a season for the rest of his career, it will only take him 6.2 years for him to reach 3000 hits. Altuve has batted below .280 just once since 2012 (twice if you count 2020), and has batted .300+ in seven of the last nine seasons (7 of the last 10 if you count 2020). It is dooable, but he will need to stay healthy, but Altuve has mostly stayed healthy in his career. This was the first time in a 162 game season since 2011 when he was a late-season call-up he had less than 120 games played and fewer than 500 plate appearances.
He has an outside chance but I would probably bet against him. He only has one season of more than 534 ABs in the last six years and not counting the COVID season, he’s only averaged 151 hits a year since 2018. Still needs 953 hits, which is 6.3 years at that pace. And that’s if he doesn’t slow down at all/maintains that pace. Will be interesting to watch, especially if he starts getting close and hangs around a few extra years to get there. One serious injury and his chances are probably over.
rct
FanGraphs gave him a 38% chance in mid-September
blogs.fangraphs.com/can-freddie-freeman-re-open-th…
Keep Altuve. HE DID NOT CHEAT. Plain and simple. Dump McCullers. He is useless as will be out again next season. For how long not sure. Invest in outfield. Brantley will be done. Chas and Meyers can go. So will need LF and CF. Need bats. Starters also. Not sure on Brown and status as starter. Will Framber rebound next season. Javier. France will he see rotation. Could look to replace Bregman. Peña even not sure on. But Altuve is a keeper here. Let him retire here like Biggio and Bagwell. Pressly too can find a new closer. So let walk. Just some thoughts beyond this season. Plus if season ends tomorrow will Dusty see another season. Will he want to continue or do we need new blood. I think do all around with pitching and hitting coach too
Dusty will be done and will be replaced even if the Astros win it all or get bounced tomorrow.
This is Dusty final season and he has done enough to ensure he is enshrined into the Hall of Fame.
The owner will go in another direction, and be ready for a rebuild soon.
HE DID NOT CHEAT. HE SHY. HE SHY
Astros would be hard pressed to find a replacement for Peña and especially Bregman.
I can’t tell what’s faster: Altuve running or Astros fans fleeing the ballpark after that Adolis Grand Slam
… Max Scherzer proceeds to choke the next game away
Eh, who knows. Rangers gained momentum with tonight’s win but as you say Scherzer could easily choke.
Thing is, the Astros offense has been choking at home (especially with RISP). So it all comes down to who chokes first and who chokes worse.
I want to just add that this whole series is giving me deja vu, that same feeling of impeding doom I felt in 2019. Game 7 will have me either elated or depressed for about a week or two.
Best wishes to ya.
Thanks. Yeah, it’s the 2nd 7-game series ever in which each road team won the first 6. I’m hoping for 7. Even if we assume it’s 50/50 (not really b/c the home team is favored), the odds are 1/2^7, or 1/128. Less than 1% chance of that happening, and probably less if you consider home field “advantage”
5/120. Get it done.
Word on the street is Astros adding Waste Management stock shares in his contract since he loves trash cans so much .
I see what you did there
Theo, we have the most cleverest & most insitefulest & most originalist posters to be found anywhere on the whole wide internet machine, dontcha think buddy? I mean Mississppi certainly knocked one out.
It’s quite boring now. There were some very clever ones early on, but now it’s just whiny adults and preteens trying to carry fake rage about something that all teams were doing. The difference is that it hasn’t deterred the Astros from being great, every single year since while their favorite team has continued to fail.
Extensions of this sort are exactly what the Astros have avoided to reach success the last several years.
Yeah I love Altuve but a 3 yr deal max. No 38 year old position player is worth a 25+M guarantee. The steroid era is over
Give him whatever he wants. He shy but he legendary
Lol to a degree. Love the guy, but at this point his contract needs to reflect his possible output. I’d suggest this:
Year 1 – $20Mm
Year 2 – $16MM
Year 3 – $12MM
Year 4 – $8MM
Years 5-6 (mutual options) @ $8MM each
Essentially 4/56 with two options. I think it’s more than fair for where he is at this stage in his career, with a steep decline in defense and elevated K rate.
Will that be enough to keep him? Guy is as clutch as cargo. Don’t think it’s a money issue. The stros keep cycling through pitchers through whatever pitch lab they’re running with great success – that’s been the key to their success: that and plug and play affordable pieces that allowed them to move on from Correa and Springer without missing a beat. They had the luxury to throw a lot of money at grizzled vet Jose Abreu who’s also likely to fade fast. But don’t think the ownership will shy away from rewarding fan favourite Altuve for past performance. Which is ironic since he shy
It will be interesting how the Altuve situation unfolds if he has another excellent season in 24.
That Abreu deal was terrible
Yeah it’ll only look worse over time. Ah well- just money
Wait Altuve’s in 24? I could see him as the crack IT guy. I hope Jack Bauer brings back Chloe – but not his stupid daughter who’d like step out for pizza and then get recaptured by the baddies
BJ
Ignoring that he’ll get more than that, the team would almost certainly rather do it the opposite
8 million, then 12, then 16, then 20
It’s the same AAV, which is what matters for the CBT, and it has a lower present Value
Altuve should prefer your configuration
Or the Bobby Bonilla treatment. Free tacos for life. And every third Thursday of the month, they turn on one of those hot air money machine booths for 3 minutes. Whatever he can catch, he keeps. With his cat like reflexes, manual dexterity and perpetual can do attitude, I bet Altuve cleans up
I know what teams actually do, but it makes zero sense. Paying a guy big money when he is absolutely awful due to age/injury makes zero sense. One day these owners will wise up and front load contracts.
BJ
The owners understand something that you don’t seem to
Present Value of contracts and time value of money
Front-loaded contacts are more expensive than back-loaded contacts or contacts where the money is evenly distributed.
Owners would much rather back-load contracts for that reason
Of course, contacts can be structured so that back-loaded and front-loaded yield the same present Value. But, then the total payout will be different
Filihok, you are completely wrong. I have a masters degree in business and finance, so I actually do understand this…you obviously don’t. The owners push the contracts (backload) as a means to obtain more talent and “win now.” Present value of a contract is actually less than future value, when factoring in interest, insurance adjustments, and the future cost to the salary cap.
Before you attempt to try and lecture people on economics, at least take something higher than an entry level course.
BJ
An owner would absolutely rather pay
$5 million in year 1 and $20 million in year 2 than $20 million in year 1 and $5 million in year 2 in almost all circumstances
But, go ahead and explain, in as much detail as you want, why owners should prefer to front load contacts
The floor is yours
Could definitely see him signing something real close to the same length/term of his last extension, maybe with the last year as an option of sorts, though.
4yrs/120ish plus a (mutual?) option yr sounds like a win for both parties, dependent upon Altuve’s health. *pan to Mr. Altuve celebrating his new contract with jazz hands holding trash can lids*
The Astros are a well-run organization for sure. They drafted Bregman, Tucker, Correa, and Springer. Alvarez and Framber Valdez were developed internally. They have a scary core that makes me think they can still hold the West for a while. However, they seem to be invincible. The last few seasons, it seems they have gotten off to bad starts, only to come back and take over. They are annoying but successful. The only annoying thing from that development standpoint has been that many guys have been developed out of nothing, and that often does result in guys reverting back to their normal selves (Javier, Brown, Urquidy, etc.)
Think they wanted to shove it down critics throats by pinch hitting Jon Singleton (great south central movie by the way with a pre grizzled Morpheus) to say see- we can even use one of the kids from when we were really really bad. That failed spectacularly. But love their chances with the irrepressible Javier against boom boom Mac. Game 7 has all the trappings of how does one extract maximum heartache from Ranger fans- potentially worse than the Game 6 World Series loss?
Nope. All is well with the world. Big D!
“Altuve might at least consider some level of hometown discount, thus freeing some more money for the Astros to keep the core together.”
—-
So it’s up to the player to give up money to keep the core together, but not up to management to increase its payroll to keep the core together?
Seems like MLBTR was brainwashed by management here.
Houston not paying their players enough? Maybe the ceiling needs less penalties when exceeding the threshold and perhaps management will increase it’s already top 5 or 6 payroll in the league.
There needs to be more penalties, not less. The so called tax is not much incentive not to exceed since a lot of teams are exceeding it. Perhaps there needs to be losses of things that affect the club other than money.
Personally I would like a hard cap and floor but MLB HQ in NYC and Manfred are firmly in the pocket of the large markets.
Not a fan of the hard cap but a soft floor should be considered. It will be interesting to see how the Reds play things the next year or two with the young crop rising to the show.
My point was to Lord making some case. I think Houston has spent plenty of money to keep some of its core players. I wouldn’t begrudge them for not signing Altuve if he commands big money from another club.
I couldn’t blame them either. Honestly, I think going beyond three years at his age is asking for trouble in any case.
Basically 99% of mega contracts for guys in their mid 30s have not gone well. Offer something fair and competitive, but don’t overpay based on emotion.
Let’s also be honest, Altuve gets a ton of unjust hate from nearly all other MLB cities/fans. Would he ever be accepted anywhere else? Maybe. But he will never be as beloved as he is in Houston.
True Beff. That’s why I think that hometown discount argument applies with Houston and Altuve.
If he’s any other free agent with his stats, he is no doubt leaving for tons of money. This situation is just too unique to quantify with offering the biggest guarantee.
Nope. MLBTR usually sounds like they work for players. They have always written in favor of greedy players and against owners. A hometown discount reference is 1 vs 100 other things. Read the players’ union strike (“lockout”) articles, the service time articles, contract negotiation posts, minimum wage disputes, etc. These guys are being brainwashed by millionaires eboking sympathy from the masses because the billionaires are seen as a bigger evil.
Billionaires are a bigger evil.
Being successful makes you evil?
Nobody should be a billionaire. That amount of success is built off the backs of hard working people, not by one’s own effort. Historically, this country is at its greatest when the wealth gap is closer and the top 1% are paying a much higher tax percentage. So, yes billionaires are nothing but greedy, evil people.
Extend him before the buzzer goes off.
Shhh. He doesn’t know it’s on his person
Depends on the price. Not sure he is worth $30M a year anymore. His SO9 rate is way up this year and His D metrics are way down from his GG year making that a liability now. He’s also not getting any younger and will be 35 after his contract is over. 1-2 year $20M per extension would be ok.
A vile human being who makes a mockery of all that is good about the game. Every time some white knight jumps to his defense he laughs his head off as he knows the true extent of his character and what he perpetrated.