The Braves are expected to decline their $9MM club option on the services of outfielder Eddie Rosario, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman notes that the decision is a “close call” and that nothing is officially yet, but that the expectation is that Atlanta will officially decline their option “by tomorrow”, the typical deadline for option decisions.
Rosario, 32, slashed .255/.305/.450 in 2023 for the Braves, a line that was exactly league average by measure of wRC+. Even combined with solid defensive metrics in left field this year (+3 by both OAA and DRS), that performance was only good for 1.4 fWAR across 142 games in 2023. Despite the meager production, 2023 actually represented a significant rebound for Rosario, who was nothing short of brutal in 2022 with a .212/.259/.328 (62 wRC+) slash line in 270 trips to the plate surrounding a procedure to correct vision issues in his right eye.
Though the eye surgery sparked optimism that Rosario would be able to rebound in a more significant way, that did not come to pass in 2023. Rosario is now three seasons removed from a four-year stretch with the Twins where he hit 96 home runs in 483 games and slashed a strong .281/.317/.493 that was 12% better than league average by measure of wRC+. At the time, Rosario’s combination of 25-homer power and a strikeout rate that consistently hovered around 15% made him an attractive offensive option, even as he was limited to left field defensively.
Now, however, Rosario is coming off a brutal stretch of three seasons that’s seen him produce below average numbers offensively (91 wRC+) with a strikeout rate of 21% and just 40 home runs in 333 games. Given his recent production, Atlanta’s decision to move on from Rosario and reallocate his $9MM salary elsewhere is a perfectly understandable choice, even as he leaves behind a major hole in the club’s lineup in left field. Rosario still seems likely to find interest in his services from other clubs this offseason on the heels of a 21-homer campaign, though perhaps not at a $9MM guarantee.
Filling that hole in left field figures to be a major focus of the coming offseason for the Braves. While there’s been some discussion of youngster Vaughn Grissom as a potential option to get starts in left next year, his lack of experience at the position and unproven bat at the big league level seem likely to push the Braves to explore other options. Speculatively speaking, Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo is a known trade candidate who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects for a salary of $9.2MM in his final trip through arbitration. That could make him a clean fit for the club’s roster and financial needs, but the coming free agent class is littered with potential options, headlined by Teoscar Hernandez but also features the likes of Michael Brantley and Tommy Pham as well as former Braves Adam Duvall and Jason Heyward.
Thank you.
Ditto.
There’s about 700 players better than Eddie Rosario available and for less $$$
Plus there’s room in front of the mirror where he can stand next to Juan Soto.
Alex Verdugo would make a ton of sense for Atlanta. With all those bats around him, he would have a plus season at the plate, plus he plays above average defense, can play all 3 OF positions and they would only need to commit to him for one season. Most FA OFs are going to be looking for 2-3 year deals at a minimum; even Duvall. Boston would probably want a mid-level pitching prospect who is close to the majors in return for him. Let’s make a deal!
It’s likely going to be Duvall back in Atlanta, that’s my guess.
They’ll probably sign Duvall, and then they’ll likely sign a 4th/5th OF type that hits Lefties well to platoon with Duvall in LF.
This has pretty much been their way of doing things the last several years.
Name just 7 of them that are available, and for less money, and I’ll give you a cookie.
Are you on drugs or just not know baseball. 9 million for his production is a great deal.
I assure you I’m not on drugs and Eddie Rosario is replacement level or sub-replacement.
Future White Sox right here
Would improve their OF, sadly.
VG moving to LF
Not surprising, LF could use an upgrade; although that’s another gaping hole for AA to fill.
Gaping hole? Guy was platooned with Pillar much of the year and was an average bat (100 OPS+). In fact, ATL’s 2 lowest bWAR by position was SS: -1.1 (22nd of 30 teams) & LF: -0.9 (20th of 30 teams), which also includes all pitching, DH and pinch-hitter.
Replacing Rosario would be addressing a need, and if he’s a hole, it’s one that can be filled with some bubble gum and scotch tape.
I expect them to welcome Duvall back, and then sign a 4th/5th OF type that hits lefties well.
What do you guys think?
He’s gonna look great in A’s green and gold.
That would only add to their streaky play
The A’s ain’t payin’ that kind of money.
I don’t think he’s going to make as much as you think he’s going to make.
He has a decent arm, so I would be interested and what makes it even better, he is a left handed bat
@Craven
If we can’t afford the highlight package this was Tony Kemp in LF/2B I can’t see us paying for Rosario. I have to assume the Braves have a guy knocking on the door at AAA, because $9m for a league average hitter & fielder is about average price… or for that matter Grissom, but he’s not exactly smashing the door down?
Re: Grissom isn’t smashing the door down? .921 OPS in 102 AAA games in 2023 isn’t that? Take in mind they were mostly playing him 2B/SS, where they most likely won’t play him in ML, barring an injury, b/c his defense isn’t up to par. That being said, if he can not resemble Schwarber in LF, they should give him enough ABs to let him find his groove.
Inserting him as a PH for the last out of ’23 was rather harsh. If they don’t explore another option, he’s either a nice trade piece or high-floor for the position.
Don’t believe that Grissom’s 8 homers in 468 2023 Triple A plate appearances qualifies as “smashing the door down.” Given the poor quality of his ML ab’s, lack of power, and never having played left field, I’d be dumbfounded if the Braves count on him as a primary option there in 2024. Unless a quality ML LF’er is dealt for over the winter, I’d rather see the spring training winner between left handed hitting Jesse Franklin V and Forrest Wall paired w/a $3-4M rh FA of’er like Pillar in a cheap platoon so they can put the Rosario savings toward a starting pitcher. Should be a reasonable outfield option available by the trade deadline if they can’t cobble average production from the players already on the roster. Speaking of resembling Schwarber in LF, I’d rather see Ozuna play LF than Grissom. Just a question, but why is VG seen as “a nice trade piece?” His infield defense is cringeworthy. He’s shown no power in AAA. At this point he’s just a throw in. If the Braves want to give Grissom a shot in LF as the rh platoon complement to Wall or Franklin V the world won’t end—but it might be a short lived experiment before AA starts shopping on the trade market.
He is considered a nice trade piece because he has been talked up as prospect of the Atlanta Braves, a 100 win team. Name recognition to the fan base sells tickets, and not every GM has a first priority of winning hardware. Selling tickets instantly happens when you acquire names. Winning sells tickets, too, but that takes time.
One could say Luis Arraez isn’t exactly smashing the door down either with his 10 homeruns and .115 ISO (far less than Grissom’s .171 ISO), but yet he’s 16th in wRC+ among qualified hitters. So there’s that. Even when looking at league average power which is a .166 ISO, Grissom exceeds that, so it’s pretty hard to claim “lack of power”. Then there’s an argument to be had about playing left, because they pretty much did just that with Austin Riley in 2019, having him only seen 7 games in left field before calling him up to play left in the majors. Grissom could see way more time in left during spring training than Riley ever got in Gwinnett at the position. There’s a chance Grissom could perhaps see time there yet in the Winter League ball, where he’s is said to be playing this off-season as well.
Low-ISO hitters like Arraez (and Grissom) are the most overrated players in baseball. The 16th best hitter in baseball shouldn’t only have 70 runs and RBI. There are two other hitters on his team alone who have similar or better numbers.
Why are you comparing Grissom’s AAA stats to Arraez ML numbers? Grissom’s ISO in Atlanta this season was ,067 in his 80 AB with zero homers. “So there’s that.” Grissom’s 2 year ML average ISO is .120 over 236 AB, but the numbers after his first 54 ML ab’s decline significantly. Not “hard to claim” that Grissom shows very little power. Eight homers in 468 AAA PA isn’t evidence of power. Haven’t seen any report that Grissom is “playing Winter League ball,” but it sounds like a good idea if it’s true.
Grissom’s .171 ISO is above the major league average of .166, so how is that low? Also what about Bryce Harper having only 84 runs and just 72 RBI’s while being a top 10 hitter, or Isaac Paredes having only 71 runs, or Yandy Diaz with 78 RBI’s, Brandon Nimmo with 68 RBI’s, Brent Rooker with 61 runs and 69 RBI’s.
Nice cherry picking there, not listing Paredes’s RBI, or Diaz’s or Nimmo’s runs. Arraez in fact has the lowest run production per plate appearance out of all the top 30 wRC+ hitters. There’s nobody who thinks that he is actually a better hitter than someone like Riley or Marte, both who are rated lower by wRC+. How does someone with a .393 OBP with a full season of plate appearances, batting leadoff, only score 71 runs?
Why are you trying to justify a short sample size as something more? Grissom had a .149 ISO in the majors in 2022 with double the playing time..compared to this year.in the majors. So there’s that. Let’s pit this for what it is, as he produced a .164 ISO in 2022, and a .155 ISO this past year overall. That’s similar to the type of power production Dansby Swanson had when coming into the majors, minus Swanson’s awful 2017 season which seen him only produce a.092 ISO that year. Grissom playing winter ball was been mentioned in a couple articles, talking about his mom being Puerto Rican, and how they said “It looks like Grissom will winter ball in Puerto Rico to continue his development as an infielder. Is this a ploy by the Braves to retain his trade value as a shortstop?” Whether he plays fully as a shortstop or not has yet to be seen.
Cherry picking? What does one or the other have to do with either? You’re try to make the claim with either has anything to do with a players hitting, which isn’t true, as the surrounding players can affect one’s RBI or runs scored totals. The only way to get around that is to be like Matt Olson and hit non stop homeruns.
The job of a hitter is to produce runs, and Arraez’s approach and offensive skill set simply doesn’t produce runs. He’s never driven in or scored 100 runs in any year – at some point that’s on him, not on the teammates surrounding him in the batting order.
Or perhaps it’s the hitters around him that aren’t producing runs due to their poor hitting and inability of driving other base runners in considering that the Marlins are 27th in the majors in RBI’s.
Maybe you didn’t read my earlier comments. There’s two other players on his own Marlins team who have similar or better run production: Soler who has produced 152 RBI+runs despite lower wRC+ and fewer at bats, and de la Cruz who produced nearly identical runs in identical number of at bats – despite him having a below league average wRC+. And your comment doesn’t explain all those years with the Twins in which Arraez also had below 100 runs and RBI. At some point it’s on him and his approach at the plate, not his teammates
You know why there’s been only 4 guys in the history of baseball that have had 100 or more RBIs from the leadoff spot (2 of the 4 came from this year in Acuna and Betts)? Because most offense aren’t supportive with good back of the order hitting, and most leadoff hitters don’t hit a ton of homeruns.Thinking that most leadoff hitters are going to get a lot of RBIs is silly. Then when the rest of the team doesn’t hit and drive runners in, you’re not going to score runs either. If you were to put Arraez on the Braves, his totals would have gone up immensely .
I’m not talking about RBIs only. I’m talking about Runs scored AND RBIs – I think I’ve made that quite clear already. Both count equally, because in order to produce runs (which is the objective of the game), you need a guy to score the run, and another to drive in the run. In the case of the HR, these both happen to be the same person.
Can you answer why Arraez has the 8th highest OBP in baseball but only 71 runs scored from the leadoff spot? Jorge Soler, on the same team, has more runs scored, batting lower in the order with fewer at bats and a OBP 50 points lower. Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan (again, both having an OBP 40-50 points lower than Arraez) have over 80 runs scored, on a Guardians team that is more offensively challenged than the Guardians. Same with Robert Jr. and Benitendi on the White Sox.
The simple answer is that Arraez, by and large, is a singles hitter. When you hit a single, it’s hard to score from first base, especially with 1 or 2 outs, because you’re relying on hitters behind you to either hit a home run or string together a couple of hits (hard to do when the league batting average is close to .230). It’s also hard to accumulate RBIs by hitting singles only, because a runner on first can’t score on a single.
Arraez is the modern-day equivalent of Tony Gwynn. Gwynn, with all his batting accolades and HOF career, only scored 100+ runs TWICE in his 20 year career, and only drove in 100+ runs ONCE in his career. Their singles-hitting approach might be unique and entertaining for the fans, but it does not lead to winning baseball.
That’s what “totals” imply, as that’s plural, not singular.. But Arraez would likely benefit from scoring more runs than he would in the RBI department most likely, because there are good hitters behind him that can actually drive in runs, as Olson lead the majors in RBI’s Albies was 4th, Ozuna was 15th, and Riley was 22nd in the majors in RBI’s. So considering that Arraez gets on base at a high rate, he would benefit a lot in the run department from those hitting behind him, just like Acuna did, leading the majors by a large margin in the runs department. You have to go all the way back to Harris with 76 RBI’s, 6th on the team, to get someone that comparable in the RBI department to the Marlins top 2 in RBI leaders.. That’s how pathetic the Marlins offense was this past year at driving in runs, ranking 27 in the majors in RBI’s. Perhaps you should look at Pete Rose with 10 years of 100 or more runs, as he was actually on good offensive teams compared to Gwynn.
But like I just stated, there are hitters on his same Marlins team who have scored more runs, in a lot fewer at bats. The Guardians and White Sox offenses score fewer runs than the Marlins, yet there are two players on each of those teams who have scored more runs than Arraez. Each of those players have significantly lower OBP than Arraez. How does that happen? The answer is that Arraez isn’t nearly as good of a hitter as his stats suggest.
Don’t pluralize hitters when talking about about the Marlins and scoring more runs than Arraez, because only 1 player scored more runs, and that was Soler. But almost 50% of Soler’s runs were scored due to him since he’s such a prolific homerun hitter with 36 homeruns. Arraez was 26 homeruns behind Soler, and yet only scored 6 fewer times. Figure that one out…
It’s not hard to figure out, Arraez was on base 242 total times compared to Soler’s 198. Yet Arraez scored fewer runs. It’s hard to score when you only hit singles due to the reasons I explained earlier. That’s why it makes no sense to penalize hitters who hit more home runs as you’re trying to do. Is it fair to also penalize Olson’s 54 home runs such that he only has 73 runs scored instead of 127? If those 54 home runs were all singles, he’d have under 90 runs scored instead of 127. Arraez’s OBP and wRC+ are inflated by the large number of singles he hits, and these tend to be empty stats because they rarely result in runs.
So you just admitted the hitters around him helped drive him in, that’s exactly what I was trying to get from you. Also I’m not penalizing hitters who hit more homeruns, which is why I used wRC+ which looks at overall offensive production, no matter what is hits for a hit. Each type of hit is seen differently, singles are worth more the walks, doubles are worth more the singles, triples are worth more the doubles, and homeruns are worth more than triples. it’s adjusted across the league, and ballpark factors adjust it as well to help keep batters even keel who play in both homerun happy or pitcher friendly ballparks. You really don’t know how wRC+ works, and if that’s the way you think, then maybe Acuna’s numbers are inflated somehow, since he was 2nd in the majors in single behind Arraez, and Acuna’s 170 wRC+ is fillacias, but somehow Nico Hoerner who was 3rd in singles only has a 102 wRC+ some how.
No, that’s not at all what I stated. The fact that it’s hard to drive in baserunners from first base is independent of his team and hitters around him. The issue with wRC+ is that it doesn’t have an exact correlation with run production. Do you even know how the wRC+ formula is calculated? Did you know for example, that wRC+ weighs doubles 41% more than singles, and home runs 127% more than singles? Let’s take the example of Arraez and Soler, since as they’re in the same lineup:
Arraez: 160 singles, 30 doubles, 10 HR
Soler: 66 singles, 24 doubles, 36 HR
Arraez has the equivalent of 160 + 30*1.41 + 10*2.27 = 225 singles
Soler has the equivalent of 66 + 24*1.41 + 36*2.27 = 182 singles
So Arraez has the equivalent of 43 more singles than Soler, yet he has 6 fewer runs scored and 6 fewer RBI. So as you can see, wRC+ doesn’t correlate to actual production of runs, which is the whole objective of the game. So while it’s hard to compare players on different teams due to the factors you listed (teammates, ballpark factors, etc.), you can reliably compare two hitters in the same lineup. You can repeat this exercise with any two hitters on the same team who have a significant difference in ISO. For example, Acuna has a higher wRC+ than Olson, but has 22 more runs and 33 fewer RBIs than Olson – in otherwords, Olson has slightly higher run production. So I would indeed say Acuna’s 170 wRC+ is somewhat inflated relative to Olson’s, but the difference is not as exaggerated as the Arraez/Soler comparison due to the fact that Acuna also hits for power.
LOL, odd of you to dismiss Arraez’s 3 triples, and not include all of Soler’s walks due to his high walk rate of 11.4%, compared to Arraez’s 5.5% walk rate.. Try again.
The result still holds true if you want to include triples (weighted 57% more that singles) and walks (weighted 21% less than singles):
Arraez: 160 singles, 30 doubles, 10 HR, 3 triples, 35 walks
Soler: 66 singles, 24 doubles, 36 HR, 0 triples, 66 walks
Arraez has the equivalent of 160 + 30*1.41 + 10*2.27 + 3*1.57 + 35*0.79= 257 singles
Soler has the equivalent of 66 + 24*1.41 + 36*2.27 + 66*0.79= 234 singles
Arraez still has the equivalent of 23 more singles, yet has 12 fewer combined runs produced. How do you explain this? I suspect you can’t, just like how you haven’t been able to explain any of my previous questions.
Like I stated before, your reasoning is flawed since putting Arraez on the Braves, and Acuna on the Marlins, and you expect both to have similar results. Sorry to say it’s not linear.
LOL, do you have actual statistical evidence to back that claim up, or did you just pull that one out of your ass? If Arraez was on the Braves, he would have nowhere close to Acuna’s numbers. The Braves scored 947 runs, or 42% more than the Marlins 666 runs. If you increase Arraez’s 71 runs and 69 RBI by 42%, you end up with 101 runs and 98 RBI. How does that come anywhere close to Acuna’s 149 runs and 106 RBI? Not to mention that one of the reasons the Braves scored 42% more runs than the Marlins in the first place is because Acuna is the best hitter in the league and Arraez is far from that. If Acuna was on the Marlins and Arraez was on the Braves, that 42% gap would be a lot smaller, meaning you should expect less than 101 runs and 98 RBI from Arraez as a leadoff hitter on the Braves.
I also like how you cannot answer any of my questions, so have to constantly resort to straw man arguments – “your reasoning is flawed since putting Arraez on the Braves…”. My previous comparison was of two hitters on the same Marlins team. What does that have to do with a hypothetical of putting Arraez on the Braves??
You asked questions, what where they? Just seems you dismiss things things I’ve provided, static’s that are aren’t my own, but ones that provide actually production league wide. But hey it’s cool if you want to dismiss actual real world data.
It’s the sentences that end in question marks, such as: why did Arraez have a higher wRC+ than his teammate, many more plate appearances, yet produced fewer runs? I’ve asked some form of that question several times and your only true argument seems to be that wRC+ is the established metric of evaluating hitters, therefore Arraez is better. Sorry, but in the real world, Arraez wasn’t a better hitter than Austin Riley this year, nor was JP Crawford better than his teammate Julio Rodriguez. If wRC+ was the end all be all metric for a hitter, than why did Olson win the SS over Freeman this year, despite having a slightly lower wRC+? The answer is that run production matters, and Olson’s run production was so much better (even taking into account lineup differences, ballpark factors) that it’s impossible to ignore. The fact that Arraez was the worst run producer among the top 30 wRC+ leaders, despite being ranked 16th, is also difficult to ignore, no matter how much you try to dismiss it.
LOL see, you ignored the answer to why Arrarez had a higher wRC+, and why he had fewer runs. All that talk about how wRC+ works, and how the Marlins are terrible as a team at driving runs in, sitting 27th in the majors in RBI’s mentioning how things aren’t linear, either all that goes right over your head, or you dismiss it like I said. But hey, if you want to dismiss things that cool, but you haven’t bought any established metrics that say differently.
RBI’s and runs aren’t established metrics? Just because they’re simple or more traditional doesn’t make them any less valuable. Especially when you’re comparing two hitters on the same team, a point that you seem to be ignoring or have trouble comprehending. Why does it matter that Marlins are terrible offensively when you’re comparing two hitters on the Marlins? Julio Rodriguez has a wRC+ 8 points lower than JP Crawford, but he has about 40 more RBI and 10 more runs, and BOTH are in the same lineup. There’s no such thing as ballpark factors when both players play in the exact same ballparks. 40 more RBI and 10 more runs are big numbers, yet your only explanation for this is that “things aren’t linear”, without any proof of why? LMAO
No they’re stats, not metrics. That’s just the outcome, but that doesn’t suggest how likely that outcome is. Like I said, things aren’t linear, and there is sometimes luck and misfortune involved in several things. Kind of like pitchers winning a game despite being a bad pitcher, because their offense . happen to go on a tear that day. A hitter getting a hit due to the fielders completely botching an easy play, or a play being made despite it being highly unlikely to be made due to its nature of being one of those plays that has a 5% being made, ect, ect. Even ballpark factors like I stated before, as all ballparks don’t play the same, which is why say it’s easier to hit in Colorado than many bullparks, and metrics adjust for that. Ballpark factors are a thing, but that’s another thing you want to dismiss, even though it is used in metrics. Also just because they’re on the same team, doesn’t mean they both play in all the same games.
“Things aren’t linear” – this is about the third time you’ve stated this without any proof or explanation why. Do you have any statistical proof of this, or did you just make this up to prove your point?
Ballpark factors don’t matter when you’re comparing stats among hitters on the same team, why is it so difficult for you to understand this, lol.
Luck and misfortune might explain small differences, like a pitcher with a 4.00 ERA and another with a 3.70 ERA, but if the latter pitcher had a 3.00 ERA, he is without a doubt the better pitcher. J-Rod had 50 more combined RBI/runs scored over his teammate, and that is a gigantic difference. You simply can’t chalk that up to “luck”. Try again.
I’ve said a lot of things a few times, but you dismiss or don’t listen to a lot of things. Not all hits are created equal, some are hit harder than the next, some are hit are varying degrees, while others are hit to other parts of the field. Just like not all fastballs are the same, or one pitchers curveball moves differently to the next one due to spin rate and spin axis even though they are thrown at the same speed. Statcast can show this, and has the data behind it, and these things are quantifiable.
Ballpark factors do matter when comparing hitters on the same team, not sure how you think they aren’t? The team could go out on a long road trip, and one player goes on the disabled list, while the other plays. Then they come back to a long homestand, and the one player comes off the disabled list and plays, while the other player gets hurt and doesn’t play. Not sure why it’s so difficult for you to understand this? The 2 players could have played 6 games each, 1 played on the road in 2 different ballparks, while the other played at home for 6 games.
Freddy Peralta and Spencer Strider both had a 3.86 ERA this year, but do you think they’re equal? Peralta produced a 3.85 FIP and 3.42 xFIP, while Strider produced a 2.85 FIP and 2.92 xFIP. That’s a big discrepancy between their FIP and xFIP despite producing the same ERA. According to Striders FIP and xFIP he’s way more valuable, and rightfully should be, because 9 times out of 10 he’s likely to be given enough time, should those FIP and xFIP numbers remain the same throughout their careers.
What does batted ball data have to do with this discussion? Hitters see thousands of pitches over a season, and put in play hundreds of balls, so over the course of a season and a large sample size, luck tends to equal out to at least some extent. I’m not arguing that a .900 OPS hitter is necessarily better than a .870 OPS hitter, because the .900 OPS hitter might had luckier BABIP. But a .900 OPS hitter is indeed 100% better than a .770 OPS hitter, because the gap is too large to be explained by batted ball or luck factors. Likewise, J-Rod’s 100 RBIs is 100% better than Crawford’s 60 RBIs, and if wRC+ says otherwise, then wRC+ is simply flawed.
That’s a terrible argument about players being on the disabled list. J-Rod played 155 games this season, compared to Crawford’s 145 games. They played in the same game, same ballpark in over 93% of their games. How does a 7% difference in games played account for a 40% difference in RBI totals? Try again.
FIP is a deeply flawed metric, because it overvalues strikeout pitchers while completely ignoring run prevention (the actual objective of a pitcher). All you have to do is look at the formula for how it’s calculated – it only takes into account strikeouts, walks, HBP, and HR allowed. Note that it doesn’t care about non-HR hits given up, or runs earned. Isn’t the whole point of pitching to prevent runs? But FIP doesn’t care about runs at all. A pitcher could give up 5 doubles or 10 singles in an inning but strikeout the side, and FIP will reward him for that – how does that make any sense? Strider’s ERA has vastly underperformed his FIP two years in a row now – why do you think that is? Because he has a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate. That’s exactly the type of pitcher that FIP rewards. Why do you think Blake Snell’s 2.25 ERA vastly overperformed his 3.44 FIP this year? Because Snell’s pitching style is to pitch around certain hitters and attack hitters who are better matchups. He was a very high walk rate but a league leading hit rate, which is why his ERA is so low – walks can’t score unless someone gets a base hit to drive them in. He issues tons of “unintentional intentional walks” by design, and clearly that approach works for him because he’s now going to be a 2-time Cy Young winner. If you think Strider was a better pitcher than Snell this year because of a better FIP, when why is Snell going to win CY while Strider wasn’t even nominated in the top 3? Either you’re right and the dozens of baseball writers, who understand the game better than you, are wrong, or maybe you’re the one that’s wrong. You continue to cite all these metrics like wRC+ and FIP like they’re gospel, without really digging deep to understand how they’re calculated.
Makes sense. We’ll trade them Senzel for a pitching prospect.
Sounds good. Take Shuster or Dodd and send Senzel over.
Senzel is gonna end up delivering on his first-round pedigree. Only it won’t be with the Reds.
Hoping the Phillies can work out a deal for him. Our bench was an Achilles heel for us in the playoffs vs. the D-Backs. Rojas was over matched, and the likes of Cave and Pache were almost as bad.
Edmundo Sosa was the only bench bat the Phillies had who did decently last year, and even he wasn’t anything special.
The Braves will just sign Adam Duvall back to play LF and he’ll hit 30 to 40 bombs for them. AA rarely gets it wrong.
The Braves will wait for someone else to sign Duvall, and then trade for him.. again.
He got a lot of things wrong in Toronto and now only has one World Series to his name with the Braves
“Only” has one world series in, what, five years? Horrible take.
Had a ton of years in Toronto. He made some bad decisions there. Maybe he learned something between then and now but still… I don’t think he’s the extraordinary guy everyone makes him out to be.
Almost everyone I’ve seen had Braves to win it all… ever fathomed to think they are overrated? People look at one year and automatically carry the idea of best team into the next year when that always isn’t the case and rarely ends up being the case.
Maybe it’s a bad case, fine, but this is my full take (since you jumped to conclusions without the full explanation).
They’re not overrated, they just had 3 of their best starters injured including Max Fried.
They also clinched entirely too early, and Snitker played the resting game far too often. They lost their groove over the final month, and it showed coming out cold in the playoffs.
It definitely wasn’t AA’s fault, and he’s been quoted as saying Toronto was a major learn8ng experience for him.
I think he’s grown tremendously since his time in Toronto, and I believe it shows. He hasn’t been perfect in Atlanta, but he’s been pretty close to it. At the very least, he’s been as good as good gets, some would say he’s even been great.
Max Fried hasn’t pitched 200 innings once in his career. He’s only had 3 or 4 years above 100 innings. That says it all for me
I think AA has been great but I just saw him not do great in Toronto, so it’s hard to just accept him as the best, which several think.
Cliching early… they have to overcome that. The Astros did.
A whole 4 pitchers exceeded 200 innings this year, you know what that is? Because teams use bullpens more than ever before,, that’s why most pitchers never exceed 200 innings.
“Best” is subjective, and that goes for most anything you’re talking. Different people prefer different things. I’ll even freely admit there have been times during his Atlanta tenure where AA left me scratching my head. For instance, originally I didn’t understand not just paying Freeman. Yes, he traded for Olson, but he gave up a Catcher (Shea) that I was really high on. Little did I realize he’d later get Murphy. And to me, that’s what makes AA really good: it’s not always clear what it is, but he always has a plan.
I can certainly understand if you don’t view him as the “best”, but I think he’s in the conversation at least. The Toronto stuff was his first shot at it, and he learned from mistakes made.
Sorry, but where did they “play the resting game”? 3 guys in the top-11 for games played (Olson, Acuna, Riley), who would have 4 if Albies didn’t have that injury. Snit was going after the postseason HF advantage (best MLB record) and continued to have his regulars out there with bum arms (Schuster, Vines, Dodd, etc.), needing 7-10 run games to win. He wasn’t lettting off the gas b/c they didn’t have the pitching depth and neglected to fall back on the laurels of being MLB’s best road team (with BAL) in the regular season.
Murphy probably should have been playing a lot more. When D’Arnaud was hurt and he playing regularly he was raking. Once they went to 1 day on 1 day off his hitting went down the drain.
Agreed on Murph playing more. They were really banking on a healthy d’Arnaud raking without considering what the loss of playing time would affect a vet like Murph who would be getting less ABs b/c Ozuna was raking at the DH position.
Good take on it.
Vines with an ERA- of 90 is having a “bum” arm?
That’s a lot of Ks with Duvall and Ozuna in the line up. Add in Riley and Olson who also K often, and I don’t like it.
Would like to see the Braves get Brantly for LF and upgrade SS. I don’t think Arcia can repeat what he did last year. But if all the Braves need is his glove, then I’m fine with him playing every day and batting ninth. Arcia cooled after his hot start, but if he can just produce something like .260 15 60, that’ll work.
It will be fun to see what the Braves end up doing. While he was injured last year and this year he was his usual streaky self. I believe they will want a more consistent bat. It may end up being almost the same ‘production.’ but with a more consistent approach where at bats are not completely thrown away for a month or so at a time. Swinging at pitches in the other batters box etc. I will always remember him fondly. Everyone seems to think Grissom, who knows. I think Grissom gets traded for a pitcher but it would be cool to see him in left.
I hope by declining Rosario that Atlanta upgrades that spot to go along with the solid group we have and doesn’t just go with a unknown on left
This guy basically gets one or two hot streaks and survives off that the whole season while being downright terrible the whole rest.
I think Atlanta has better than a “solid” group. Maybe not there rotation
Heyman never knows what he’s talking about. Not picking up Rosario’s option would be dumb. 25 homer lefty bats don’t grow on trees. Who that they can afford is better? I’ll wait…
This is easy. Not my preference but Adam Duvall. Cheaper, had him twice, better D and he had same amount of HR (21, not 25 you mentioned) in 68% of the PAs that Rosario had. Better WAR in less time (due to injury). Again, not my preference, but he was better and should be better, even if a platoon option. They really do grow on trees.
Who cares about 25 homeruns when your offensive production is no better than league average?
Adam Duvall isn’t left handed.
You are not wrong about the LHB market being thin. Rosario for $9m isn’t a terrible thing based on what he ‘could’ do, but based on what he has done the last couple of years there are probably better.
I am not certain the Braves ‘must’ go left-handed though. As long as they get someone who can righties at a decent clip, even if not as good as lefties then it would be ok. The three batter minimum has helped to reduce balance needs a smidge, and they already have Olson and Harris that rake against righties. I don’t count Albies even though he was much better this year, but I expect regression to the norm from him against righties in 2024. On top of all that, Rosario generally had splits closer to even than most LHB’s, so they aren’t really losing a righty mashing guy anyway.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Rosario stay, but I would not mind us going cheap in left (Grissom or a rebound candidate) and put that money towards pitching.
Verdugo is a lefty and is an above average fielder who would hit 30+ doubles for Atlanta and might be able to pop 15-20 HRs as well. So long as the asking price is not too steep, I believe this is the best option for the Braves as he’ll only require a 1 year deal (final year of arbitration), so this will allow Atlanta another year to develop their younger players to see if one of them could take over LF in 2025. Atlanta fans will love him too; he plays with his heart on his sleeve.
So Verdugo is a Rosario clone?
I don’t think it’s an absolute “must” the Braves go lefty, but I think it’d be better if they did. Personal preference, but I like having 3 lefties in an order to mix things up. Duvall, in many ways, duplicates a lot of what they have.
Adam Duvall is 35, right handed and probably won’t take more than $9m to sign.
If they don’t pay Rosario why one earth would they want a lesser player in Verdugo for more money? Lol. Just pay Bellinger AA!
By no means is Verdugo a lesser player than Rosario. If you turn back the clock 3-4 years then maybe you’d have a point, but Verdugo has been a superior player of the two over the last 2-3 years. He doesn’t hit for a ton of power, but he’s always among the league leaders in doubles with 12-15 HRs to go with them and his defense ranges from very good to excellent at times. He would be awesome in LF for Atlanta, plus he doesn’t require a multi-year contract to add him, just a mid-level prospect.
Lol no thanks.
They aren’t getting Bellinger, they have bigger needs in the pitching department, especially if they either decline Morton’s option or he retires.
If they sign Cody, they’re not adding a quality starter. One more dependable starter is a much bigger need, too. Given the strength of the rest of the order, they don’t need a premium free agent in LF.
I’d also be incredibly hesitant to give Bellinger a huge contract. Yes, he did bounce back last year. Prior to that he really struggled, however. That’s a big gamble.
The only way I’d want CB is if he was willing to come to Atlanta on a big 1 year deal, and the Braves were willing to still spend on a starter as well. Neither seem likely, so…
He’s not good… it’s time for him to go and although it’s fine to resign him for less, I hope we just let him walk. It’s time
They could just send out a replacement level player and still make the playoffs. Why be the best you can be in this format?
Brantley. Perfect fit.
Brantley or someone similar with a .300 batting avg. Don’t need power, save the money and bolster our pitching.
Braves need to address SP. Had way too many injuries last year and no guarantee those who were hurt can make it back this year.
That one-time stable of young SP prospects that was supposed to bring the Braves the second coming of Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine did not materialize.
Really can’t rely too heavily on Morton this year, although I wasn’t totally against the Braves exercising his option and bringing him back. I’ll be happy if he can make 20-24 starts.
Braves should sign Nola and Montgomery. Both, though not aces in the truest sense of the word, are solid #2 guys. Plus they answer the bell every five days.
Perfect fit for the disabled list. Brantley has only seen 79 games over the past 2 years, and hasn’t seen over 121 games in any of the last 4 years. Guy is riddled with knee problems and now he’s’ has shoulder issues that last 2 years
If they decline Eddie, just let Vaughn Grissom play LF, hit him 9th and watch him have the same effect that his bff MH III had last season in the same spot. Harris can move up to hitting 2nd in the line up with Riley and Olson behind, then Albies, Ozuna followed by Murphy and Arcia