Astros’ general manager Dana Brown spoke with KPRC 2 recently about the club’s priorities. He naturally listed bullpen as a target area with Phil Maton, Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek set to become free agents. He also said that the club will need a backup catcher for Yainer Diaz, who is going to be “the main guy next year.”
The Astros have been employing Martín Maldonado as their primary backstop in recent years, which certainly hasn’t been because of his bat. Though he had a nice showing at the plate in the shortened 2020 season, he has hit .183/.260/.333 in 1,212 plate appearances over the past three years. That amounts to a wRC+ of 66, indicating he was 34% worse than the league average hitter over that stretch.
Despite that tepid offense, he has been a valuable member of the Astros in that time thanks to his glovework and his handling of the pitching staff. But his defensive numbers slid a bit in 2023, hardly surprising since he is now 37 years old. With his contract now expiring, it seems the club is planning to move on.
That decision has been made easier by the emergence of Diaz, who had a breakout year in 2023. His 2.9% walk rate is quite low, but he also limited his strikeouts to a 19.6% rate. He launched 23 home runs and produced a line of .282/.308/.538 for a wRC+ of 127. Among catchers with at least 350 plate appearances for the year, only Sean Murphy had a higher wRC+ mark, with his 129 just two points ahead.
But with Maldonado behind the plate most days, a lot of that production took place while Diaz wasn’t catching. He did get 42 starts as the catcher but also 36 as the designated hitter and seven at first base. It’s hard to get meaningful data from that small sample of work behind the plate but, for what it’s worth, Statcast liked his blocking and work with the running game. However, each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus considered his framing to be subpar. Regardless of the details, the overall body of work was strong and it’s logical the club wants to give him the gig next year.
Diaz is only 25 so it’s entirely possible there’s still room to grow. He has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration before the end of 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. Perhaps the club will face some challenges in moving from a respected veteran to a far younger catcher, but those concerns could be ameliorated somewhat by bringing in a veteran to support Diaz.
Maldonado could perhaps be that veteran, though it might be tough for the club to bring him back and then limit him to a part-time role. Other options on the free agent market include Austin Hedges, Yasmani Grandal, Victor Caratini and Tucker Barnhart. The trade market could feature guys like Jacob Stallings of the Marlins or Kyle Higashioka of the Yankees.
As Brown outlines, targeting bullpen help will be a logical move with Maton, Stanek and Neris headed for the open market. Neris actually has a player option and no decision has been publicly reported on that, but it sounds like Brown is expecting him to turn it down. That’s not surprising since Neris posted a 1.71 ERA in 2023. He won’t be able to sustain a .219 batting average on balls in play or 90.5% strand rate, which is why his 3.83 FIP and 3.89 SIERA were more than two runs above his ERA. But nonetheless, he recorded 31 holds and a couple of saves while striking out 28.2% of batters faced. It’s a net $7.5MM decision, with the option valued at $8.5MM with a $1MM buyout. He probably won’t be able to get his ERA under 2.00 again but he should still be able to beat that guarantee on the open market.
Brown noted that some of the replacements could be internal but they may look to make some moves this winter as well. Josh Hader is the top reliever available but there are also names like Jordan Hicks, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Robert Stephenson and many more.
Financially, the club may be walking a tricky line, unless they want to break their own tendencies. They have generally tried to stay under the competitive balance tax, which will have a base threshold of $237MM next year. The club is already at $231MM for next year, per the calculations of Roster Resource, though Neris opting out will drop that below $225MM. Adding a backup catcher and a reliever won’t necessarily break the bank, but it doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room if they want to stay under the tax again in 2024.
Good hitter (128 OPS+, etc)
Bad walker (11 BB in 377 PA)
Better hope that opposing pitchers don’t read this or else it could be curtains for Yainer!
Doesn’t walk but also doesn’t K
“Cough”
Gary Sanchez
“Cough”
No to Sanchez
The Pads need to keep Sanchez.
A lack of walks doesn’t matter if you can post an OPS+ that high, since it already accounts for OBP. In fact, it’s better to have an OBP built more on hits than the same OBP built more on walks.
> A lack of walks doesn’t matter
Until pitchers figure out they don’t have to throw the ball over the plate to get him out.
His lack of strikeouts could just as likely lead to more walks if/when pitchers stop throwing him strikes. At this point, it’s just as likely he improves as it is he regresses.
Over the course of a full season, they probably already tried that and found that he gets too many hits on balls just outside the zone.
No it’s not. Hits are dependent on BABIP which fluctuate wildly, especially if you’re swinging at pitches out of the zone often as that leads to sub-optimal contact quality.
No, a hitter’s BABIP usually remains pretty steady year-to-year until he starts his decline phase.
It doesn’t matter if the contact is sub-optimal if he still consistently gets enough hits out of such contact to post such a high OPS+. Meanwhile, hits are still inherently more valuable than walks, as they will almost always advance baserunners at least one base and will sometimes mean extra bases for the batter as well.
Should have been the everyday catcher in 2023 but Crusty was senile. That Astros team lost out on about 3-5 wins and a WS title because of Crusty and his questionable lineups and decisions. A new manager and Diaz catching everyday will be a major boost to that team.
At least you’re appreciative of a future Hall of Famer leading your team to its first (clean) World Series title.
Rocker49 wants results. That championship is in the past. Baker doesn’t get a free pass just because he won once. If every team stopped to Buff its one Trophy and one Ring all the time, they’d never win one again. Or maybe he was simply just Buffy Baker, blinding people with the shine off his one (1) ring.
Rocker, I believe Dusty costed the team a chance at the WS by prohibiting Diaz from catching regularly. I get roasted for my opinion on Diaz over Maldy in Stros threads
Hard to say. The Astros lost the first two games by a combined three runs. Maybe Diaz would have hit bombs and we would have won. Or maybe not. Doesn’t matter now.
Did someone in Cleveland get fired for trading him for Miles Straw? Diaz has yet to slug below .500 in the U.S.
What’s more absurd was that Straw was given a multi year deal.
And CLE threw in Phil Maton to sweeten the deal.
I liked James Click as GM.
Thanks to Dusty Baker
Keep thinking they should get a manager and him that person make the decision.
What? lol
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
Have couldn’t better myself said it
Sorry. For those who couldn’t figure out the spell check issue, let* that person make the decision
I wonder how many teams will be interested in Maldonado’s D this offseason.
Dust was the only man in baseball interested.
That’s inappropriate!
He’s a two time WS winner with gold gloves and millions earned; I think he’ll be ok.
May I suggest Eric Haase as a backup. His defensive lapses mostly came this year with wild pitches. Too many of the Tigers pitchers throw their breaking pitches only 55 or so feet from the pitching rubber (Alex Lange anyone?). Astros pitchers tend to get their breaking pitches closer to home plate.
As for offense, he had good offense in 2021 and 2022, can play left field and first base, and despite an offensive 2023 that Alice Cooper sang about (“Welcome to my Nightmare”), the Tigers won more games than they lost when he was catcher. Maybe I am old school, but isn’t winning and losing the most important analytic and statistical criteria?
The city of Houston may not be thanking Dusty, but I will. Thanks for starting the worst catcher in baseball in all 7 games against the Rangers instead of Yainer Diaz. Rangers fans really appreciate it!
That’s not very nice. Accurate, but not nice.
the Astros got the fine because Feldman was soar assed that he had to put sanctions on his best buddy in St. Louis, and then the sanctions were a 2nd and 3rd for STEALING the Astros draft database and using it 2 drafts. The Cardinals used it two ways, one to check their rankings against the Astros rankings. Second, if the Astros have someone as their guy in the 3rd round and the Cardinals also liked him, they would take them in the third round since they picked in front of Houston.
Joey Votto and some other current and past major leaguers have said EVERY team cheated. I know that won’t stop people from complaining but that is because they are crybabies and get butt hurt when you say their team also cheated.
The Astros love defense at catcher so look for someone with great defensive skills. Amercia’s Team, the Houston Astros, kept Cesar Salazar on the roster out of spring training last year because he was great defensively. They might decide he is good enough for what they want and spend on reliever or a bat
I’m sure Maldonado will have a mature response to this.
I don’t follow the Astros that closely and didn’t realize how good he had been with the bat. Will Diaz be able to handle the increase from 42 starts to 100 or so? Are they going to go after a glove first backup? Hedges or someone of that type?
They Astros definitely need a competent backup.
I’m not an Astros fan, but I wouldn’t wish Grandal on anyone.
Glad to hear this. It’s almost as if modern managers consider offense from a catcher as a negative.
They simply need a good defensive catcher for the backup role.
I did some research on these catchers and these are the ones I like Yasmahi Grandal Bats Both can catch and play first base. Also catch Victor Caratini.The Astros need to release Jon Singleton. The other catcher is Yankees Kyle Highashioka he hit 10 Home Runs in 2021, 2022 & 2023. The Astros should have kept Korey Lee and gave him chance he hits Both sides. The Astros haven’t had a switch hitter since Alan Ashby. So Dana Brown find a good back-up catcher in 2024.
Mitch Meluskey was a switch hitter.