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Yainer Diaz

Yainer Diaz Wins Arbitration Hearing Over Astros

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Yainer Diaz won his arbitration hearing against the Astros, reports Francys Romero. The catcher, a PRIME client, will be paid a $4.5MM salary instead of the team’s $3MM filing figure.

Diaz earns a strong payday in his first trip through the arbitration process. The benefit of the win goes beyond the extra $1.5MM he’ll make than if he’d lost the hearing. It also sets a higher baseline for his final two years. The process is designed for players’ salaries to climb as they get closer to free agency, so there’ll be compounding benefits to today’s result.

The 27-year-old Diaz is one of the better catchers in the sport. He’s a career .279/.305/.454 hitter in nearly 1600 plate appearances. Baseball Reference has valued him around three wins above replacement in each of his first three seasons. He has topped 20 doubles in each and is coming off his second 20-homer campaign. Diaz hit .256/.284/.417 with 20 longballs and 70 runs driven in across 143 games a year ago.

That included a career-high 111 starts behind the plate, plus 24 as a designated hitter. Diaz caught the seventh-most innings in MLB. They’ll need him to take a similarly heavy workload now that high-end backup Victor Caratini departed to sign a two-year deal with Minnesota. César Salazar is expected to step into the backup role.

A $1.5MM isn’t a huge difference for a team in isolation, though it takes on a little more importance for the Astros than it would for most clubs. RosterResource estimated their luxury tax payroll within the $238-240MM range depending on the hearing result. Ownership reportedly wants to remain below the $244MM base tax threshold, so this could have a modest impact on the front office’s midseason flexibility on the trade front.

Today was a strong start for the players in arbitration. Orioles righty Kyle Bradish also won his case, pushing players to 2-0 thus far. The Diaz and Bradish hearings took place yesterday. Dylan Lee and Edwin Uceta had hearings last week, though their results are being held until other comparable cases are decided. According to The Associated Press, the Blue Jays had their hearing with left-hander Eric Lauer this afternoon, though that ruling is also expected to be held for a later date. Tomorrow is the biggest date of the arbitration class, as the Tigers and Tarik Skubal are set to present their cases with a record $13MM gap between their respective filing figures.

Astros, Isaac Paredes Avoid Arbitration

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1:37pm: There’s also a 2027 club option on the deal worth $13.35MM, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. If Paredes finishes top ten in MVP voting, the club option converts to a mutual option. Even if the club/mutual option is eventually not picked up, Paredes will still be under club control for 2027 via arbitration. Most teams have a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning they won’t negotiate one-year deals after the filing deadline. Most post-deadline agreement have an option tacked on to nominally adhere to this policy.

12:13pm: The Astros have avoided an arbitration hearing with infielder Isaac Paredes, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The two parties settled on a one-year deal worth $9.35MM, landing right at the midpoint of the team’s $8.75MM submission and the $9.95MM sum submitted by Paredes’ camp at CAA. Houston and catcher Yainer Diaz had their arbitration hearing yesterday, per the Associated Press. A result is expected today.

Paredes, 27 in a few weeks, came to Houston as part of last winter’s Kyle Tucker blockbuster and enjoyed a solid year in the Astros’ infield. He missed nearly two months due to a hamstring injury but still popped 20 homers while batting .254/.352/.458 over 438 plate appearances when healthy.

While Paredes was on the shelf, Houston reacquired Carlos Correa in a deadline salary dump deal with the Twins. The ’Stros installed Correa at the hot corner in deference to standout shortstop Jeremy Pena. Since Paredes was sidelined into late September, the Astros didn’t have to deal much with the sudden glut of position players they had, but that won’t be the case heading into 2026.

Paredes appears to be a man without a position. Correa and Pena will again man the left side of the infield. The left field experiment for Jose Altuve didn’t prove all that fruitful, and Altuve is expected back at second base for the bulk of 2026. Christian Walker’s first year as an Astro was a disappointment, but he’s signed for two more years and owed another $40MM, so he’ll be back at first base. Yordan Alvarez will see occasional time in left field but will still take the majority of the Astros’ DH at-bats. Prospect Brice Matthews, a natural middle infielder, will likely be pushed to the outfield by the infield logjam.

All of that has led to plenty of speculation about a potential trade, though general manager Dana Brown has said repeatedly that he doesn’t feel obligated to trade from the group. Were there any interest in the remainder of Walker’s deal, perhaps that’d change things, but other clubs have understandably been unwilling to take on that $40MM on the heels of a down season for the 35-year-old.

While there’s no immediate spot for regular at-bats for Paredes, that doesn’t necessarily matter. It takes all of one injury for him to have an everyday spot in the lineup, after all, and even if the entire group stays healthy, he can play fairly regularly by spelling Correa at third, Walker at first, Altuve at second and Alvarez at DH. Correa and Alvarez, in particular, have lengthy injury histories and are prone to missing chunks of time.

This was the third of four trips through the arbitration process for Paredes, a Super Two player. He’s controlled through the 2027 season and will be owed one more arbitration raise next winter. The 27-year-old Diaz is arb-eligible for the first time this winter. He and his reps at PRIME submitted a $4.5MM figure, while the team countered at $3MM.

Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?

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The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.

Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.

The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.

Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.

Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.

As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.

That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.

Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)

Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.

Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.

McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.

Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”

Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)

There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).

De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.

Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.

The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.

That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.

Dana Brown, Joe Espada Discuss Astros First Base Plans

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After the Astros released veteran first baseman Jose Abreu yesterday, the move left a clear hole in the club’s lineup at first base. Both GM Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada have since spoken to media about the club’s plans at the position, as relayed by Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle.

As noted by Young, Brown told reporters that first baseman Jon Singleton, who received the majority of reps at first base when Abreu was optioned to the minors earlier this year, will get the first crack at regular at-bats at the position, with Brown noting that the club intends to give Singleton the opportunity to “grab the bull by the horn” and establish himself as a regular in their lineup. Through 50 games with the club this year, however, Singleton hasn’t done much to suggest he’s ready to step into the role of an everyday first baseman. The 32-year-old slugger has hit just .216/.313/.333 in 174 trips to the plate this year (92 wRC+). While his 13.2% walk rate in that time is quite impressive, he’s striking out at an elevated 26.4% clip and has displayed minimal power with just eight extra base hits this year.

That being said, Singleton’s actually been just above average (101 wRC+) with a 14.3% walk rate and a 22.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this year. That provides some reason for optimism that Singleton could be a viable choice for the strong side of a platoon at first base, and it appears the club is receptive to that possibility. Per Young, both Brown and Espada have indicated that utility man Mauricio Dubon will factor into the club’s first base mix against left-handed pitching. Dubon is hitting a solid .302/.327/.421 (114 wRC+) in 168 trips to the plate with the Astros this year, a figure that includes an impressive 133 wRC+ against southpaws.

While the club appears to be planning on Singleton and Dubon handling first base for the time being, it appears that Astros brass are nonetheless considering alternative options should Singleton struggle in expanded playing time. As noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic yesterday, the has considered the possibility of utilizing their catching tandem of Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini at first base in some capacity as well. Both have produced solid offense with the bat this year for the standards of the catcher position: Diaz has slashed .258/.283/.407 (95 wRC+) in 233 trips to the plate while Caratini has posted a similar .235/.278/.408 (93 wRC+) line in 108 plate appearances.

With that said, both of those figures are below average overall and seem somewhat miscast at an offense-first position such as first base. Given that reality, it’s perhaps not a surprise that Espada indicated to reporters yesterday that the club prefers to keep Diaz and Caratini behind the plate. With that being said, the Astros did select the contract of switch-hitting catcher Cooper Hummel to replace Abreu on the roster yesterday. Hummel owns a lifetime slash line of just .166/.264/.286 in the majors, but if he can post something closer to the .301/.423/.509 slash line he has in 201 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level with the Astros this year it’s possible that he could either factor into the first base mix himself or act as a solid enough backup option behind the plate to make the Astros more comfortable utilizing Diaz and/or Caratini at first on a part-time basis.

Of course, all of these options are looking purely internally; MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart relayed yesterday that Brown noted that the Astros expect to search for an additional bat at the trade deadline in addition to their rumored pursuit of starting pitching. If Houston is indeed planning to add a bat to their lineup this summer, first base is certainly a logical fit. Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has already received some buzz as a potential candidate to move this summer, and while Toronto brass have emphasized their reluctance to make such a deal, the fit between Guerrero and the Astros is fairly obvious in the event that the 25-year-old does find himself on the move. Pete Alonso is another notable first baseman who could be on the move this summer, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently discussed. Other speculative candidates to move at the deadline this summer at first base include a host of veterans on expiring deals such as Josh Bell and Justin Turner.

Astros Still Hoping To Add To Pitching Staff

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The Astros made a huge addition to their pitching staff recently by signing Josh Hader but it doesn’t appear they are done. “I think our bullpen is pretty solid,” manager Dana Brown said yesterday, with video relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “We may be able to use one more there. But the pitching, if we get a starter, we could put one of the starters in the ’pen. That would solve that problem. But I’m always in the market of saying ’Hey, where can we find pitching? You know, where can we make it better?’ I think our rotation’s good enough to get back to the World Series right now but I’m always looking to improve pitching because I know how guys get hurt during the course of the year.”

The Astros are set to open the 2024 season with the same rotation mix as they had in the second half of the 2023 campaign. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier will be in the first three slots. Luis García, who had Tommy John surgery in May of last year, could return at some point in the second half. Until then, the spots at the back half will likely be taken by some combination of Hunter Brown, José Urquidy, J.P. France or Brandon Bielak.

The bullpen, however, has seen more turnover since last year. Each of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek reached free agency. Neris signed with the Cubs and Maton with the Rays, while Stanek is still a free agent. The Astros made one big push to cover for those three losses by signing Hader.

The signing of Hader gives the Astros a deadly trio to finish games, with Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu also excellent relievers. But the group gets a bit less scary after that. Rafael Montero is coming off a rough year, posting a 5.08 ERA in 2023 after signing a three-year, $34.5MM deal. The 40-man roster also has guys like Ronel Blanco, Bennett Sousa, Shawn Dubin, Forrest Whitley, Seth Martinez, Parker Mushinski, Dylan Coleman and Oliver Ortega but they are all pretty light on experience.

Adding to that group would be sensible but it’s interesting that Brown said that could come via adding a starter and bumping someone from that mix to the bullpen. Brown looked pretty good for much of the year but seemed to fade down the stretch, with a 3.62 ERA through June but a 6.95 ERA after. He’s still only 25 and that was his first full season in the big leagues, so it’s possible he’ll avoid that slowdown as he acclimates to the big league grind.

Urquidy came into 2023 with a career ERA of 3.74 but his .253 batting average on balls in play and 78.5% strand rate were both on the lucky side. His 4.35 FIP and 4.29 SIERA pointed to some regression, which came last year. He posted a 5.29 ERA in 2023 and also missed about three months due to shoulder discomfort.

France was fairly solid in his 24 outings, with a 3.83 ERA, though he might be due for some regression himself. He only struck out 17.4% of batters faced with a .289 BABIP and 76.7% strand rate, leading to a 4.66 FIP and 4.96 SIERA. Bielak also had a 3.83 ERA last year in his 15 outings, though also with concerning peripherals. Though his 50.2% ground ball rate was strong, both his 17.6% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate were subpar. His 76.2% strand rate may have helped him out, which is why his 5.19 FIP and 5.02 SIERA weren’t as pretty.

Those are generally adequate options for a club to have at the back of a rotation, particularly when the front is so strong. But as Brown alluded to, injuries will happen and there’s always room for more pitching. Bielak is out of options, so perhaps he could get bumped into a relief role if the club were to find another starter somewhere.

How much ability they have to pursue external additions will be an interesting variable. The club has generally been reluctant to pay the competitive balance tax but came into this offseason right near the line and then blew past it when they signed Hader. Per Roster Resource, their CBT number is currently at $255MM, well beyond the base threshold of $237MM and nearing the second tier of $257MM. Getting another pitcher of significance, unless via some sort of cash neutral trade, would surely involve pushing over that line and incurring a higher rate of taxation. The free agent market features big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many others.

Elsewhere on the Astros’ roster, McTaggart also relayed some video of new manager Joe Espada, answering a question about Yordan Álvarez playing the outfield. “I think that Yordan could play more left,” Espada said. “I’m going to try to put him more in left field because I think it’s important for us to open up the DH spot a little bit more for some other guys to get some more rest. I think when Yordan is healthy and he’s moving around really well, I think he plays a good enough left field for us. But also, I really want to keep that DH spot open to give some guys, you know, get them off their feet and keep their bats in the lineup.” When asked specifically about catcher Yainer Diaz, he affirmed that Diaz would be a guy he’d like to keep in the lineup even when he’s getting a day off from catching.

Álvarez is one of the best hitters in baseball, having hit .295/.390/.588 in his career for a wRC+ of 166, and will be in the lineup as much as possible. But injuries have been an issue from time to time. He missed almost all of the 2020 season due to right knee discomfort. Hand inflammation sent him to the injured list in 2022 and he dealt with an oblique issue last year. As he has battled those issues, his time in the field has never been huge. Thus far, he has topped out at 467 2/3 innings over 56 games in 2022.

Moving him out of the designated hitter slot more often would open more time there for other guys, as Espada mentioned, but it would come with the risk of stretching Álvarez. More time in the field increases the chances of suffering an injury. Meanwhile, the defensive metrics are split on how capable he is with the glove. He’s logged three Defensive Runs Saved thus far in his career but Outs Above Average has him at a -10.

But if he were to head out to the grass a bit more often, it could benefit someone like Diaz. The young backstop is in line to get a lot of playing time anyway after hitting 23 home runs last year, but no catcher starts every game. J.T. Realmuto led the league with 130 starts behind the dish last year with no one else topping 116. That means there will certainly be days where Victor Caratini is donning the tools of ignorance and Diaz would need the DH slot to get into the lineup.

If Álvarez were to play left field more often, that could cut into the playing time of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers. The Astros will have Kyle Tucker in right field the vast majority of the time, leaving only position for that duo if Álvarez is in left. Both are capable of playing center but Brown said in December that the club was planning to give Meyers a shot at the regular center field job with McCormick the regular in left.

Meyers has strong defensive grades but has hit just .235/.296/.379 in his career thus far for a wRC+ of 88. McCormick’s defense isn’t graded quite as strong but he’s still above average, and with much better offensive output. He’s hit .259/.336/.449 overall for a wRC+ of 120. Pushing Álvarez to the outfield more often would have to squeeze one of them out. Brown also said last month that the club is open to add a left-handed hitting outfielder, with both Meyers and McCormick hitting from the right side.

Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.

Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.

The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.

The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.

Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Notes: Payroll, Rotation, Maldonado, Neris

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The Astros advanced to their seventh consecutive League Championship Series in 2023 but fell shy of a third straight World Series bid when the division-rival and eventual World Series Champion Rangers knocked them off in a thrilling seven-game series. They’ll head into the winter with a trio of notable relievers hitting free agency (Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek) and with a rotation that’s a bit thinned out by to injuries of Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor tendon surgery) and Luis Garcia (Tommy John surgery). Veteran Michael Brantley is also returning to the open market.

Despite a plethora of needs up and down the roster, general manager Dana Brown openly acknowledged at this week’s GM Meetings that his team doesn’t “have a ton” of financial flexibility heading into the offseason (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). That’s unwelcome news for ’Stros fans, though Brown suggested that if the right situation presented itself, owner Jim Crane might push beyond his current comfort levels.

As it stands, strong rookie performances from the likes of Hunter Brown and J.P. France give Houston a quality group of six starters on which to lean. Reacquired ace Justin Verlander, lefty Framber Valdez and righties Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy round out the rotation options.

Verlander will pitch next season at 41, however, while Valdez and Javier faltered a bit as the year wore on; Javier’s rotation spot was skipped a couple times over the summer as he labored through mixed results, while Valdez turned in a pedestrian 4.64 ERA over his final 99 innings before being rocked for 12 earned runs in 12 postseason frames. Urquidy spent several months on the injured list and turned in 73 innings of 5.30 ERA ball between the regular season and playoffs combined.

The depth beyond those six is more concerning. Righties Shawn Dubin and Brandon Bielak both had rough showings in Triple-A. The latter tossed 80 innings of 3.83 ball in the big leagues but did so with a 10.2% walk rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and too many home runs allowed (1.35 HR/9) to necessarily bank on a repeat. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, also on the 40-man roster, posted a 5.70 ERA in 30 Triple-A frames.

Brown indicated to reporters that he’d be open to opportunities to add “a legit third starter or better.” Logically speaking, doing so without radically increasing the payroll would likely require operating on the trade market rather than in free agency. It sounds as though that’s viewed more as a luxury than a priority anyhow; McCullers and Garcia are expected back sometime in July, and Brown instead called the bullpen and backup catcher “priorities.”

To that end, it’s perhaps not surprising to hear that the ’Stros and longtime catcher Martin Maldonado could continue their relationship. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that the two parties have mutual interest in a reunion, adding that Brown has already met with Maldonado’s agent, Dan Lozano, during this week’s GM Meetings. The Astros have publicly declared that Yainer Diaz will be their primary catcher in 2024, but as Brown himself spelled out, adding an experienced backup is a goal.

Houston has stuck with Maldonado for four and a half years despite the fact that he’s perhaps been MLB’s least-productive hitter during that time. Over the past three seasons in particular, Maldonado has been a liability at the dish. In 1212 plate appearances since 2021, he’s turned in a .183/.260/.333 — about 34% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. However, the Astros are enamored of Maldonado’s game-calling, game-planning and broad defensive skills. Maldonado ranks among the game’s best at blocking pitches in the dirt over the past four years, although his framing skills fell off a cliff in 2023 and his caught-stealing rate has steadily declined.

Houston clearly loves Maldonado’s work with their pitching staff, however, and the organization would surely welcome him working in a mentor role to Diaz, whom they hope can cement himself as the catcher of the future. Add in that a new deal with Maldonado in a reduced role would undoubtedly be a low-cost arrangement, and it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see them hammer something out. Maldonado earned $5MM in 2022 and $4.5MM last year.

Maldonado isn’t the only former Astro who’s on the radar. Via Rome, Brown acknowledged that he’s also spoken with Neris’ representatives at Octagon about a new deal, though there’s no indication a new deal is close to fruition. Neris turned down an $8.5MM player option and although he’s 34 years old will quite likely be able to secure a multi-year pact on the open market this winter after turning in a sub-2.00 ERA in his second season with Houston.

Turning to a pair of Astros icons, both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are entering the final year of their contracts. Brown has been forthcoming about his desire to make the pair lifelong Astros, but agent Scott Boras — who represents both players — said at this week’s meetings that contract talks have not yet begun (link via Kawahara).

Astros fans will want to check out the pieces from both Kawahara and Rome in full, as they’re rife with refreshingly straightforward answers from Brown — the type of candor that many of his peers throughout the league generally shy away from offering. Beyond acknowledging priorities in the bullpen and behind the plate as well as interest in bolstering the rotation, Brown suggested that outfield won’t be a primary focus this offseason, given the presence of Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon and Jake Meyers. That doesn’t expressly rule out an addition — unexpected opportunities on the trade market, for instance, could always arise — but it doesn’t seem that’s a hot-button issue for the Astros at the moment.

Yainer Diaz To Be Astros’ Primary Catcher In 2024

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Astros’ general manager Dana Brown spoke with KPRC 2 recently about the club’s priorities. He naturally listed bullpen as a target area with Phil Maton, Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek set to become free agents. He also said that the club will need a backup catcher for Yainer Diaz, who is going to be “the main guy next year.”

The Astros have been employing Martín Maldonado as their primary backstop in recent years, which certainly hasn’t been because of his bat. Though he had a nice showing at the plate in the shortened 2020 season, he has hit .183/.260/.333 in 1,212 plate appearances over the past three years. That amounts to a wRC+ of 66, indicating he was 34% worse than the league average hitter over that stretch.

Despite that tepid offense, he has been a valuable member of the Astros in that time thanks to his glovework and his handling of the pitching staff. But his defensive numbers slid a bit in 2023, hardly surprising since he is now 37 years old. With his contract now expiring, it seems the club is planning to move on.

That decision has been made easier by the emergence of Diaz, who had a breakout year in 2023. His 2.9% walk rate is quite low, but he also limited his strikeouts to a 19.6% rate. He launched 23 home runs and produced a line of .282/.308/.538 for a wRC+ of 127. Among catchers with at least 350 plate appearances for the year, only Sean Murphy had a higher wRC+ mark, with his 129 just two points ahead.

But with Maldonado behind the plate most days, a lot of that production took place while Diaz wasn’t catching. He did get 42 starts as the catcher but also 36 as the designated hitter and seven at first base. It’s hard to get meaningful data from that small sample of work behind the plate but, for what it’s worth, Statcast liked his blocking and work with the running game. However, each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus considered his framing to be subpar. Regardless of the details, the overall body of work was strong and it’s logical the club wants to give him the gig next year.

Diaz is only 25 so it’s entirely possible there’s still room to grow. He has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration before the end of 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. Perhaps the club will face some challenges in moving from a respected veteran to a far younger catcher, but those concerns could be ameliorated somewhat by bringing in a veteran to support Diaz.

Maldonado could perhaps be that veteran, though it might be tough for the club to bring him back and then limit him to a part-time role. Other options on the free agent market include Austin Hedges, Yasmani Grandal, Victor Caratini and Tucker Barnhart. The trade market could feature guys like Jacob Stallings of the Marlins or Kyle Higashioka of the Yankees.

As Brown outlines, targeting bullpen help will be a logical move with Maton, Stanek and Neris headed for the open market. Neris actually has a player option and no decision has been publicly reported on that, but it sounds like Brown is expecting him to turn it down. That’s not surprising since Neris posted a 1.71 ERA in 2023. He won’t be able to sustain a .219 batting average on balls in play or 90.5% strand rate, which is why his 3.83 FIP and 3.89 SIERA were more than two runs above his ERA. But nonetheless, he recorded 31 holds and a couple of saves while striking out 28.2% of batters faced. It’s a net $7.5MM decision, with the option valued at $8.5MM with a $1MM buyout. He probably won’t be able to get his ERA under 2.00 again but he should still be able to beat that guarantee on the open market.

Brown noted that some of the replacements could be internal but they may look to make some moves this winter as well. Josh Hader is the top reliever available but there are also names like Jordan Hicks, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Robert Stephenson and many more.

Financially, the club may be walking a tricky line, unless they want to break their own tendencies. They have generally tried to stay under the competitive balance tax, which will have a base threshold of $237MM next year. The club is already at $231MM for next year, per the calculations of Roster Resource, though Neris opting out will drop that below $225MM. Adding a backup catcher and a reliever won’t necessarily break the bank, but it doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room if they want to stay under the tax again in 2024.

Astros Notes: Garcia, Urquidy, Altuve, Diaz

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The Astros formally placed  righty Luis Garcia on the 15-day injured list yesterday, as was expected after he departed his most recent start due to elbow discomfort and underwent an MRI. Lefty Matt Gage is up from Triple-A in his place. Manager Dusty Baker told reporters prior to yesterday’s game that Garcia is getting a second opinion on the MRI but declined to go into any further specifics (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Additional information on the right-hander should be available as soon as this weekend, per the team’s skipper.

Garcia, 26, threw just eight pitches before exiting his most recent start. His fastball was clocked at an average of 91.7 mph — a good bit south of his 93 mph average in five prior starts this season and even further off the 94.1 mph he averaged in 2022. In those prior starts with the ’Stros this year, he’d pitched to a 4.00 ERA with a strong 27% strikeout rate against an 8.7% walk rate. His fourth and fifth starts were particularly impressive, as Garcia rattled off 13 scoreless innings with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio in victories over the Blue Jays and Rays.

For now, the Astros can expect to be without Garcia for at least two weeks, but the MRI, second opinion and current lack of details will understandably make some Houston fans rather uneasy. News on fellow right-hander Jose Urquidy is at least a bit more promising. He’ll be shut down from throwing for the next 10 days, tweets Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, but an MRI revealed only inflammation near Urquidy’s shoulder and armpit. The right-hander himself doesn’t believe the injury to be particularly serious, McTaggart adds, so a return later this month seems plausible.

That’d be welcome news for an Astros club that now has Garcia, Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. on the 15-day injured list. At present, the only healthy starters on Houston’s big league roster are Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown. Long reliever Brandon Bielak could be an option to start, and the club also has right-handers Forrest Whitley, Shawn Dubin and J.P. France on the 40-man roster down in Triple-A.

There’s some brighter news with regard to Jose Altuve, who met with reporters today and revealed that he’s fielded ground-balls on each of the past two days (video link via McTaggart). Altuve, who underwent surgery to repair a fractured thumb sustained during the World Baseball Classic, isn’t yet swinging a bat and won’t have a clear timetable on a potential return until he’s able to do so. Fielding grounders is still a notable step in the All-Star second baseman’s return, as that marks the first baseball activity in which he’s participated since the surgery. Altuve raved about Mauricio Dubon’s play in his absence but emphasized that he’s anxious to get back on the field as soon as possible.

Dubon isn’t the only (relative) newcomer who’s contributed in the first month of the season. Catcher Yainer Diaz hasn’t played all that frequently, with Martin Maldonado still receiving the lion’s share of playing time —  but Diaz has impressed when on the field. He’s turned in a .258/.306/.355 batting line in 36 plate appearances and, much more impressively, thrown out five of ten runners who’ve attempted to steal against him.

Diaz’s play thus far has already caught the attention of first-year Astros general manager Dana Brown, who said in an appearance with Sean Salisbury on SportsTalk 790 AM that he increasingly looks like a long-term piece of the puzzle in Houston.

“Looking like he’s going to be the future for us behind the plate,” Brown said when asked for his early impressions of Diaz this season. “…He’s learning a lot under the tutelage of [Maldonado]. I’m sure at some point he’ll be mixed into the lineup a little bit more, but he’s coming along nicely. He threw those two guys out [yesterday] — bullets down to second base. That was very encouraging. He’s a bright light for us, no doubt.”

Maldonado, 36, is signed through the current season and is highly regarded by Baker and the team’s coaching staff for his defensive prowess, work with pitchers and general game-calling/game-planning abilities, but he’s also hitting just .162/.250/.235 in 77 plate appearances. An eventual uptick in at-bats for Diaz could serve as a soft audition for the starting role in 2024 and beyond, although the organization has made its fondness for Maldonado quite clear, so it’s always possible he ends up signing back for another season. Regardless, Diaz seems to be earning a role on the club and, as evidenced by his status as one of the game’s top 100 prospects at both Baseball America (No. 75) and FanGraphs (No. 80), there are quite a few in the industry who believe he’s capable of eventually emerging as Houston’s starting catcher.

Astros To Select Corey Julks, César Salazar

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The Astros informed reporters of a handful of roster decision this afternoon (relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Most notably, outfielder/third baseman Corey Julks and catcher/first baseman César Salazar are making the Opening Day roster. Neither player is yet on the 40-man roster, so the club will have to formally select their contracts in the next few days.

Houston will carry three catchers to start the season, as backstop Yainer Diaz is also breaking camp behind veteran starter Martín Maldonado. Díaz is already on the 40-man after making his MLB debut late last season. Catcher Korey Lee, outfielder Bligh Madris, infielder/outfielder J.J. Matijevic and infielder Rylan Bannon were all optioned, while non-roster invitees Dixon Machado, Justin Dirden, Austin Davis and Ty Buttrey were reassigned to the minor leagues.

Julks is a Texas native who attended the University of Houston. An eighth-round pick by his hometown club in 2017, he’s played five minor league seasons. The 27-year-old had a strong season with Triple-A Sugar Land last year, hitting .270/.351/.503 with 31 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 27 attempts. Baseball America slotted him as the #27 prospect in the Houston system this offseason as a result, the first time he’d placed among the organization’s top 30 farmhands. The outlet credits him with roughly average tools across the board and suggests he could step immediately step in as a fourth outfielder. He’ll earn that opportunity after a .275/.318/.550 showing in 40 plate appearances this spring.

Salazar, also 27, was a seventh-round pick in 2018 out of the University of Arizona. The 5’9″ backstop spent the majority of last season with Double-A Corpus Christi. He posted a solid .277/.350/.489 line while connecting on 16 longballs in 85 games. Salazar only walked at a 6.8% clip but kept his strikeouts down to a modest 16.5% rate. While he only has 18 games of Triple-A experience, the Astros are confident he’ll be able to handle the jump to take on big league arms. He’ll add a left-handed bat to the bench and give skipper Dusty Baker some added flexibility to sub out Maldonado for a pinch-hitter as long as Houston carries three catchers.

Diaz is one of the organization’s best offensive prospects. The 24-year-old only got into six MLB contests last year but combined for a .306/.356/.542, 25-homer showing in the minors. He adds a bat-first complement to Maldonado behind the dish and could also see occasional starts at first base or designated hitter.

Houston will need to create a pair of spots on the 40-man roster. Placing second baseman Jose Altuve on the 60-day injured list feels like an inevitability, as he won’t begin baseball activities for two months after fracturing his thumb. Starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. could be another 60-day IL candidate as he’s slowed by a forearm strain, though general manager Dana Brown was noncommittal on that possibility today (via Rome).

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