5:27 PM: Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates this evening that the Brewers and Miley are “moving closer” to a deal, while noting that an agreement between the sides would be a one-year arrangement.
9:57 AM: It would appear as though the Brewers and Wade Miley are making progress on a reunion, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal predicts that a deal between the two sides will “materialize in the coming days.” Miley pitched for Milwaukee during the 2018 season and then returned to the Brew City last season on a one-year, $4.5MM deal with a $10MM mutual option for 2024. Like with virtually all mutual options, it wasn’t exercised, as Miley declined his end of the option and took a $1MM buyout to re-enter free agency.
Some elbow soreness and a lat strain limited Miley to 120 1/3 innings last season, but that was still a vast improvement over his injury-riddled 2022 campaign as a member of the Cubs roster. Miley’s comeback year included a very solid 3.14 ERA over his 120 1/3 frames, though advanced metrics (like a 5.04 SIERA) were much less impressed by the veteran’s performance. Miley benefited from a .234 BABIP and an 81.6% strand rate, and his 16.1% strikeout rate ranked in only the eighth percentile of all pitchers.
These numbers notwithstanding, secondary metrics have often been down on Miley over the course of his 13-year career, as the left-hander has never been much of a strikeout pitcher and he has relied on grounders (49% career groundball rate) and soft contact to achieve success. Miley’s efforts at limiting hard contact have been particularly successful over the last few years, and his 31.3% hard-hit ball rate was one of the better marks in baseball in 2023.
This skillset has led to some pretty varied results over Miley’s long career, as the BABIP gods haven’t always been on his side. Nonetheless, the Brewers still seem interested in what Miley can bring to the table as he enters his age-37 season, and Rosenthal notes that the team also values his off-the-field contributions as a clubhouse leader. It is probably safe to assume that Miley will sign another relatively inexpensive one-year contract, perhaps with another option of some sort covering the 2025 season. That is surely appealing to a Brewers team with a limited budget, and a need for some extra depth in the rotation.
Should Miley return, he’ll join Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, and (another re-signed pitcher in) Colin Rea as the projected starting five, with depth options that include Janson Junk, top prospect Robert Gasser, and Aaron Ashby returning from an injury-marred 2023 season. There is plenty of fluidity within this group, however, as rumors persist that Milwaukee could trade Burnes prior to his final year of team control.
Can’t blame them. He’s a bulldog.
Modern Day Jamie Moyer
Hard no. That’s an insult to Jamie Moyer.
Only based on durability. Moyer was a career 4.25 era pitcher, also didn’t have an over powering fastball. His strong suit was he was effective and durable. If Miley were healthier and more durable, it wouldn’t be an insult to Moyer at all. They’re both solid, effective bottom of the rotation guys. The big difference is just that Moyer was more durable.
That’s like saying if the brewers had won 20 more games they’d be World Series champs
Miley is 37 and has a career 18.7 WAR. He doesn’t have many years left. Moyer had a 49.8 career WAR. The comparison is silly.
You can’t say every soft tossing lefty is like Moyer. Dude won 21 games as a 40 year old. Let’s see Miley do that.
Moyer pitched until he was 49 with over 4,000 IP. At 37, Miley is 2,400 IP behind him.
Moyer amassed more WAR per innings pitched than Miley as well. Took Moyer 81 innings to amass 1 WAR and it took Miley over 96 innings to produce the same. Moyer pitched at a far superior clip for a much longer period of time. Like I said, the comparison is silly.
Jamie Moyer pitched 12 years too long!!
You’ve made at least one too many stupid comments.
Can we insert Rich Hill here instead?
Great signing they need depth… now bring black up and Jackson… sign turner for third and the crew should be the favorite in the central
Little early to start drinking, isn’t it? Crew won’t win more than 75 games in 2024
@Brock Brewers won 92 games last year with the only real big difference at the moment going into 2024 is that they know they won’t have Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff only pitched in 11 games last year. So even if you gave them an automatic loss for those 11 games this year, which, I doubt you’re a fortune teller, so you can’t really do, they’d of still been an 81-81 team without him.
But, I’m sure even if it’s a little early, you seem to already be drinking.
Somebody is definitely an idiot.
You understand estimate their young talent. They have just as many quality pieces the guardians did when they were young and won the AL central 2 years ago. Be interesting to see how they piece the rest of their off season together but I expect em in it til the end
Think if they get Johnston on a rule 5 pick up from Marlins they will be set offensively. Black will be ok at third.
Good National League pitcher. Needs to stay there.
I remember shortly after he declined his option, this one brewers fan site that always pops up in my newsfeed did a whole article about what the brewers could do to replace Miley. I commented “Maybe just resign him?” And someone was like “he’s already gone”. I mean, all teams have those fans who are seemingly clueless, but even after a couple back and forth about how until he signs somewhere else, they could just bring him back, dude was adamant that “NOPE”, he declined that option, gone forever lmao
My first thought was did he just decline the option to get another 1+ deal, or a standard 2 year. Even if the ’24 salary is a bit lower, he will likely get more over 2 years, or with a buyout.
I do question back up catcher… I would love to see Jefferson….. but it probably slows down his performance not playing every day…..
Wouldn’t mind seeing Maldonado back as a reserve catcher.
Will be happy to see him back.
Interesting stats at a quick glance. Seems like he is an every other year performer.
He kinda tends to struggle with injuries every other year. His durability is probably his biggest problem. Not having that power high speed fastball like some, when he’s not healthy he’s easier to hit. That’s why any manager would be smart to only rely on him as a 5th, maybe 4th starter with innings limits always.
Yea thats what I was gathering, seems like he pitches hard/well one year and then it leads to a regression with injuries.
Saw him touching 94-95 last year in MIL, that’s pretty power fastball for an old lefty..
He’s a solid rotation piece though provided you use him wisely and don’t think that you should leave him in every game after 5 solid innings. His starts are where you’re going to need bullpen innings just so you can keep him healthy, because as long as he’s healthy, he’s effective. But really, he’s best as a 5 inning pitcher, with his longest outings only being 6 inning outings if he’s really gotten through the lineups in a good pitch count.
Sounds a little like the defense behind him matters….and Milws is about the best up the middle in all of baseball. Only corner infield and catcher would be questioned.
Savant OOA actually says cubs beat milw in middle infield and that’s just NL
They did only say “about the best”, meaning I’m pretty sure their point was just that it’s solid. Not unbeatable. I don’t think many question that Swanson/Hoerner is also a solid up the middle defense.
They also said in ALL of baseball. I was pointing out they weren’t the best even in the NL Central.
How close in rankings are you trying to argue the defense fact? It’s fine the defense of Mitchell-Wiemer-Frelick-Chourio-Turang at any moments notice is not dropping its ability. Someone suggests Merrill as headline in a deal and I’d pass. Turang was still worth over 1WAR with a rookie experience bat as basically all 3 OFs that played in 2023. Game experience these guys will improve vs “small sample size” and they’ll work out who should stick and who should be 4th OF or which 2 platoon. A different Brewers team takes the field next season offensively. Why a headliner needs to be a SP with top of rotation ceiling in 2 or 3 seasons.
I doubt it’s better then the 10 mill option he declined (1 mill buy out)
I like and respect Miley for his work over the years. But I also don’t understand why he wouldn’t just agree to the opinion at $10M.
It’s more about players wanting to get another year a strong value while they’re still able to get it. Following his production in 2023, getting 10 million in 2024 is easy even if he declines it. But it’s more about getting a guaranteed year for 2025 IF possible for a good rate, or the likelier outcome, another similar contract with the guaranteed money in 2024 and an option for 2025. Which depending on how he pitches in 2024, likely also gets declined unless he pitches poorly in 2024.
But he opted out solely to get another one year deal with an option year. I’m sure he’d take a 2 year deal if he could find one, but most know about his durability concerns by now, so he’s not getting any lengthy guarantees. It’s just about getting that extra option year.
Looks like he guessed right. Lynn at $12MM set the new base.
Another 10Mil for 2024 would mean he made 1M by declining. I’d give him 10M after last season and pitches over 120IP it would be worth it. Add a 2.5 buyout of another 10M option. Rinse repeat til he can’t be relied for 100IP.
@Chris The “rinse and repeat” is exactly the plan of it. Especially when you’re coming off a decent year. It’s when you’re coming off a bad year that you pick up that option. But as long as he has years like 2023 it’ll basically 100 percent be rinse and repeat.
I doubt he gets to 120 IP in 2024. So much money in MLB is spent paying pitchers to not pitch.
John Farrel isn’t impressed
He no hit the Indians
Where y’at?
Miley had a couple of good seasons for the Reds. I wish him well.
Best team defense last season I believe. If you’re not striking out at a high level, defense helps. Soft contact and keeping the ball in the park Milwy’s got you. Now if only Houser could keep that ball in the park and reduce his bb rate say .5/9 ip. What a back 1/3rd the crew have.
Would be a great resigning. Very solid pitcher for Milwaukee and a real leader in the clubhouse, which is certainly important.
Hard to believe that he has been on eight different clubs already. Has pitched well for the brew crew. They would do well to bring Miley back.
Seems to me that the biggest story here is that, after the news yesterday about Andre Scrubb, we find that the Brewers have a pitcher named Junk! Unless it is pronounced, “yoonk,” which I may do anyway even if it’s not true.
I wonder if Gasser is a fastball pitcher. Conversely, is Junk a breaking ball pitcher?
Came here to say almost the same thing. Junk and Gasser really would be quite the combo of names to have in a single rotation if they both stick.
Sounds like an appropriate name for a morning show team in Milwaukee
Miley came in like a wrecking ball. He’ll be good one day
No reason to freak out.