Right-hander Corbin Burnes of the Brewers is one of the most attractive trade candidates this winter but it’s not clear if the club will actually pull the trigger on a deal. Earlier today, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Brewers “have engaged teams in recent days” about Burnes. But last night, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that rival clubs think Burnes is likely to remain in Milwaukee.
It’s a tricky spot for the Brewers to be in, as there are arguments for both sides. On the one hand, they are the reigning division champions and are in a strong position to do well again in 2024. Brandon Woodruff’s injury and subsequent non-tender hurts them, but they have one of the best prospects in the league, Jackson Chourio, on the rise and potentially debuting next year. With Woodruff out of the picture, trading Burnes would only further hamper a rotation that has been such a strength for them.
But on the other hand, Burnes is going into his final season of arbitration control. He recently spoke candidly about how an extension is not in the cards. They could hold onto him and give him a qualifying offer at the end of 2024, but they would likely be able to get something better by trading him now. There’s also the risk, as they just saw with Woodruff, that an injury completely alters their future plans.
If Burnes were available, he would undoubtedly get plenty of interest. All reports indicate that the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high this offseason. Some clubs will be able to sign marque free agents like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but others will come up short in those pursuits while some clubs won’t be able to shop in that aisle at all due to payroll concerns. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, a bargain for a pitcher of his quality.
The righty has tossed 622 1/3 innings over the past four seasons with an earned run average of 2.86. He has struck out 30.9% of batters faced in that time, walked 7.1% of opponents and kept 46.4% of balls in play on the ground. His tally of 17.9 wins above replacement in that frame, per FanGraphs, is second to Zack Wheeler among all pitchers in the league.
He has already been connected to the Dodgers, Cubs and Orioles in rumors but it stands to reason that plenty of other clubs would be interested. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at some of the best fits in a theoretical trade.
Today’s reports don’t shed much light on the possibility of a trade actually coming together. It’s fair to assume that the Brewers would want to have talks with all potential trade partners and assess the packages on offer before deciding what is best for the club in 2024 and in the long run. They could use some upgrades on the infield and in the rotation, and the latter of those two needs would only grow if Burnes did end up in another uniform.
Why is his arb so low?
“Only” made $10 million last year plus injuries earlier in his career.
Not a super 2 either. Makes a big difference.
He never had any injuries in his career. Was used out of the pen in 18 and struggled in ‘19 and rebounded nicely in 20
That’s why I think the Brewers keep him, $15.1m for a Corbin Burnes contract year and a high comp pick (should be 30-35) is a good.
Plus the option of dealing an ace mid-season should circumstances warrant.
He initially wasn’t a starter and then really struggled early on in the rotation, watched him give up five bombs in a single start in ‘19, his era was something like 8+, even though the shorter season of ‘20 counted as a full season of service time the fact most starters made under ten starts leads me to believe even though Burnes had a very good year the numbers didn’t very much translate to big money for players in arb as it was probably considered far too small a sample size, also he lost about 800k in salary for ‘22 after losing his arb case and many fans suggested the crew should’ve just paid the 800k but that factors in to future salaries as well so that’ll have saved the Crew several million by the time it’s all said and done, but alas that’s how Burnes has ended up with such a “low” salary for his final year of team control and I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him lose again and end up under 15million for ‘24 due to his very poor first half in ‘23 and his inability to hold a lead and ultimately costing the crew in the playoffs, a true number one (as Burnes apparently views himself and wants to be paid) gets you a playoff victory when they’re given a 3-0 game one lead, he was up 3-0 after two and was down 4-3 going into the bottom of the fourth, Burns’s numbers “say” ace because he has the ability to dominate for months at a time but overall as a starter has shown an inability to get it “done” when his team needs it most like down the stretch in ‘22 costing the Crew a playoff birth and breaking their streak of consecutive playoff appearances (which would currently sit at five years and counting if not for ‘22) and his playoff performance against that young d-backs squad screams anything but a true ace#1 starter but because of his numbers he’ll get paid like one and only time will tell if he continues his big game struggles or not…..
Why is his arb number so low?
I need Burnes the top MLB ace in Toronto STAT
Nobody else cares.
About your comments, you aren’t lying.
He would look right at home in an Astros uniform.
He would look fine in any team’s uniform.
I doubt it very much if the Brewers would make a trade with the Cubs!
Agree. Zero chance that happens after Counsell jumped ship.
That’s not true. Brewers couldn’t land a better player than Cade Horton. And if cubs are still linked that gotta be kicking tires on it. Be a crazy price to pay but Horton gets it done
I dont think they would part w horton though, but it would definitely get it done.
Horton by himself doesn’t get done. A reasonable trade would be Horton, Shaw, and another piece or 2 further away. A Burnes trade to the Cubs would not be a reasonable one.
Horton by himself is a massive over pay
Horton Shaw and two pieces is too much. Horton and Shaw would be enough. Cubs would be better off keeping those two and paying a free agent.
It isn’t.
Redd.. Horton’s years of controllability make him extremely valuable and Hoyer wouldn’t do it. No GM would..
If I Jed and the cubs. I’m not trading Cade Horton unless it’s gets me Juan Soto and at least some sort of talks about an extension. And an extension isn’t gonna happen. Unless he’s blown always with like 550mil over 14 years. Personally I’d rather only have 1 contract that big with Ohtani no matter what team he signs with.
Logjammer… Man, I just don’t see it. Not for Soto or Glasnow or Burnes or any other player with only one year left of control. If they had a seriously strong starting rotation, and as a team, were on the verge of going all the way, then maybe. Otherwise, no.
Jackson Holliday? Burnes and Adames for Holliday plus what…..? I really like the idea of packaging Burnes/Adames because a SS w/plus D and 30+hr pop and a CY young winning starter are usually both needs or inevitably great roster fits for even the best of the top contending MLB rosters, and if a true elite talent like Holliday were ever to get moved I’d have to believe a package of Burns/Adames is a great start, plus the Crew can throw in any number of 1.5-2war players like Tyrone Taylor and or AAAAidraiaaaan Houser, this is by far the most “exciting” offseason as a Crew fan I can remember and it’s so interesting because the Crew could go all in an field an impressive Roster for ‘24 or they could enter a rebuild and get off to a very nice start w/all the MLB talent they have available to trade, however I don’t see a rebuild coming as their farm is loaded with MLB ready/close talent, the “retool” is probably real and if so Arnold has everything at his disposal (minus cash ha) to have an impressive roster post deadline for ‘2024 even without Burns/Woodruff or Adames
Burnes isn’t the Burnes of old. I don’t think Milwaukee fans will like the return they get for him. And Milwaukee is not keeping him. Milwaukee has no leverage and Burnes upside has petered downward. He’s basically between a #2 and #3 starter with probable innings limitations, so what would a team give up for one year of that, with the salary hit to boot?? I don’t think teams would be lined up ready to break down the door at the GM meetings in a frenzy to trade for Burnes. If I’m a team needing to trade for a starter ; I would be looking at Mr. Cease from the White Sox all the live long day.
there’s no way you just said he’s a number 3 starter… wtf r u smoking, im sure milwaukee fans would love to have him back
Like somewhere between a 1.5 starter at best and a 2.5 starter at worst. Naw not a 3…he would be on the IL before stooping to that level.
Burnes in his down season was still top 10 in RA9-WAR and top 20 in fWAR. Over the last 3 seasons, he’s 1st in RA9-WAR and 3rd in fWAR amongst SP. 1st in both if you go back 4 years. The Burnes isn’t a number 1 SP is nonsense.
C’mon man. Burnes was always the recipient of some crummy run production. I remember when he lost a 1-0 game to the Dodgers this year and pitched his butt off. He’s played well and hasn’t always had the run support. He’s like Ben Sheets in terms of no run support for the Brewers. If Burnes played for a potent offense he’d be a top 3-5 pitcher year in year out.
Burnes pitched well til the 3rd inning when he couldn’t keep the ball down instead of up in the zone and got hammered. Stop being a hater please.
You can’t tell me that you wouldn’t enjoy having him on your team and taking the mound every 5 days.
If Burnes isn’t an ace who is?
Come on dude.
Tell me what was so Ace-like about his 2023 season? And please include his performance in the NLDS. Now I am not saying he is Nestor Cortes or Carlos Rodon. Or turning completely into a pumpkin but he is not a true 1-A Top Dog anymore.
Burnes is a LOT better than Cease.
Please cease and desist!!
I like Cease better because he’s way younger and way cheaper and a team will get two years of control. And obviously Cease’s stats were bungled last season because of his crap coaches and teammates. Cease came in #2 in AL for Cy Young in 2022 , where was Burnes rated ?
They’re about a year and a half apart in age.
Cease’s extra year of control naturally increases his price. But the problem with Cease is—if 7-8 teams think you’re a TOR starter—is there going to be any discount based on his crap season?
I’d take Burnes for the 2023 season alone.
Can you name ten starting pitchers in the NL who are better?
He’s still a #1 on many rotations. He’ll get paid.
Not many guys with a 3.39, 1.07 and 200Ks.
Nola was a full ERA higher last year and got 7/$172M.
You think Cease and that ERA close to 5.00 last year is a better option?
You may want to apply to be the Angels GM.
I guess that depends on your expectations. I think they’re going to get a top 100 prospect + what they want. Either more prospects or a controllable ML piece(s). Or some combination of the 2. Pitching is still scarce and burnes is still excellent.
I don’t know if he’s 2021 excellent but still a guy you’d slot at the top of most teams rotations.
Exactly. There’s a lack of quality arms available. Burnes is quality.
Agree, hes not the dominant ace of 2021, definitely regressing. But still a 1a for sure or would be possibly among the strongest number 2s in all of mlb!
Comparing Cease to Burnes is comical. Cease has had 1 great year, Burnes 4.
I am saying right now in this moment I would take Cease for all the reasons I laid out above. (Half the price, get him for two seasons, and younger) I am not saying Cease has had the better career. But Cease has the upside of a 1-B , solid #2. At this point in his career I believe the same thing about Burnes. But Burnes is riskier with less potential surplus value in the short term.
While some of your points are valid, I wouldn’t think 1/2 the price is accurate. the value in Cease is 2 years vs 1 of control. Burnes is a better more consistent pitcher. if Burnes was 2 years as Cease is, it would not be worthy of this conversation.
I’m not sure I said anything about price, but just to clarify my only claim is that if I was GM/POBO and my team needed to TRADE for a TOR pitcher my preference would be to target Cease over Burnes. It will be interesting to see & compare the trade packages CHI & MKE receive for those guys, if they are dealt.
You just said above the Cease is half the price of Burnes!
Burnes at $15M for 2024 is an absolute steal. This is the sole reason why Milwaukee might hold on to him; his value far exceeds his monetary cost in 2024. If he were a free agent right now, he probably exceeds the Nola contract, at least in AAV. Burnes could sign a deal right now for 6/$170 or even 6/$180. He’s that good.
My bad my bad I was not being specific enough…I was thinking “price” as in the “price in prospects” it would take to obtain either pitcher. But yes, I also used “price” to denote their 2024 salary (instead of just saying salary, ha). I need to be more careful choosing my words.
Yeah but then you wouldn’t be an ignorant sob
I know coop, I know. I believe in truth in advertising. So if anybody ever gets confused, it’s right there in my username.
Inning limitations? Dude has put up back to back 200 IP seasons. He’s an easy top 10 SP going into next year. With Woody gone the Crew will keep Burnes next season, only maybe trading him at the deadline if the season seems lost. He’s an easy keeper at $15mill for Cy Young upside.
Burnes didn’t mesh with Contreras last season and pitched better with Caratini behind the plate. 8 of 32 starts with Contreras 4.69 ERA only 40IP 5ip per start. Caratini 3.05 ERA 153.1 IP. In 24 starts 6+ip per start. Contreras has a wild setup movement-location right before a pitch trying to mask where he wants the ball. 3.05 ERA in 153IP and 24 starts is what Burnes does with a Catcher that he works with.
Lay off the ditch weed pal, he just had 200K in 193+ innings of 3.39 era ball, I agree he’s not a true #1 as his inconsistencies and blowing a 3-0 game one lead at home in the playoffs indicate however he’s still going to be top dog on essentially any roster and his numbers prove that, btw making up nonsense doesn’t suddenly make your statements true or real, guy throws near 1whip ball for 200 innings and you’re trying ti tell people he’s in an innings limitation, that’s just simply nonsensical at best
No way they trade him to the Cubs, especially after they took their manager. There would be a mutiny in Milwaukee.
They would trade him to the Cubs at a significant premium. A reasonable Burnes trade to CHC would be Horton, Shaw, and another piece or 2 further away. If Burnes ends up with the Cubs, it’ll be anything but reasonable.
Well, of course, almost anyone is available at the right price. But what you said basically matches what I’m saying. Cubs would never do that deal, which means he’s not going to Chicago. I’m sure Hoyer would love to get him though…
Burns will be a padres. They have the prospects, the need and he isn’t being paid much.
Book it.
Padres can’t afford him
Until they trade Soto.
If Brewers could get any two out of Rushing, Cartaya and Frasso, I think they would do it quick. But too much for Dodgers to lay unless they know that a long term deal is certain. I think Burnes is worth almost as much as Soto. You pay less than half as much in salary for the one year contract which is why I reach that conclusion.
If the Padres trade soto they will easily have the $15 mil for burnes, lots more prospects & still have 2-3 holes in their rotation due to their own free agents. they can sell burnes on how great it is to live in SD
These trades just ain’t gonna happen until the market clears a little. Snell, monty, and yama all gotta find homes before biebs, cease, and burnes
Are the Yankees & Brewers Far Apart In Corbin Burnes Trade Talks?
GM/POBO split. Manager split. Gotta be something more going on in Milwaukee then they care to talk about
Stearns wanted a bigger budget.
Counsell wanted a bigger bag.
What more is there to know?
Matt Arnold has been GM since 2020 and acting in the roll since 2015. Stearns is also from NY.
Stearns wanted a bigger paycheck too.
Burnes to the Dodgers make a ton of sense.
The Mint makes a lot of cents.
If they offer Sheehan. Oops no? No Burnes either.
Burnes for Canning, Rengifo, Medeiros and another arm
That’s not getting Burnes.
More like Dana, Paris and Joyce.
Nor is that getting it done. A Burnes trade to the Angels would require 2 of Detmers, Neto, and Schanuel coming back in the package.
I agree that might not be enough, my point was more that they would want prospects not journeymen in the show. That is why I thought it would take two not just one from the Fodgers of Rushing Cartaya and Frasso. Dodgers might be willing to part with Cartaya and Stone if they knew they could ink a long term deal
For 1 year of Burnes? Just wait and sign in free agency then and brewers get nothing (fwiw I was going based on trade simulator which I know is not the end all be all)
The Brewers have a better catching prospect than either Rushing or Cartaya. 0 interest in a catcher coming back in trade from any team.
Cartaya will likely play a different position if his bat heats up
Cartaya is a bust without staying behind the plate. Catcher prospects flame out because the bat profile is working on catcher “good batting” corner OF-1b-DH? Defensively limited and hoping they hit for power. Cartaya doesn’t belong in the top 100 prospects much less conversation in a big trade.
To the O’s for hall and Ortiz.
I have said all along Mayo and Hall gets it done and the best trade scenario with any team.
No way in hell the O’s trade Mayo in any deal.
Cowser and a lower level prospect. top 40 prospects like Cowser are hard to get.
Brewers don’t need more OF. They have 6 viable MLB ready OFs currently (Yelich, Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell and Taylor). If that’s the offer Milwaukee would go elsewhere
I’d take either of these trades and I definitely think the Orioles are the best team to trade to. Surprised I don’t hear their name more.
because Elias says nothing ever. I want Burnes, he makes us the AL fav imo.
No rush. Just wait for someone to get desperate after they miss out on FAs. Someone always does.
Yep Eddie. They can certainly bide their time. Someone said the Brewers have no leverage. Nonsense; it just takes two to raise the price. There may be five or six. That said, the O’s do seem like a good partner for Burnes.
Brewers are just gauging the market. Zero chance they trade him now. If theyre out of it in July, maybe, what info they gain now will help determine fair value for any possible mid season trade. But a comp pick in the low 30’s is probably more appealing than any trade value. He stays in Mil for the duration. Book it!
They might, but it wouldn’t be smart.
You gain they extra prospect in trade value by doing it now. A team that acquires Burnes before the year can also offer the Qualifying offer and get the draft pick back. Plus that QO keeps his negotiations a little more team friendly, versus no pick attached. So a team like the Dodgers with intentions to sign him long term know that trading for him now gives them better odds to resign him. If they are wrong the get pick #32 in the next draft. As soon as this season starts,Burnes trade value drops by one top prospect.
I would love to see the Reds land him. He turns into Cy Young when he plays Cincinnati.
Agreed on that. Just like Ian Happ turns into league MVP at GABP.
I believe the Baltimore Orioles are the best option to get the best haul for Burnes. They have major league ready players who are being held back by starters at positions needed for the Brewers infield needs. And a surplus of pitching ready now or the very near future.
If this front office holds onto him until they are out of 2024 playoffs at mid-season and doesn’t get the big haul for him now they all should be fired. Burnes has already said that there would not be an extension and now he is a Boras client. He has to be moved before you get nothing for him and he somehow gets hurt.
It’s crappy luck what happens to Brewers better upcoming players to get injured at worst times and or deal with personal issues. Woodruff. Hader. Nelson. Segura. Yelich.
They are due for their top player to make it through their career atop his game. (Unlike Arcia)
Every team that trades for Burnes is offering him a QO after the season. Same as Milw will. They will get something back, whether offseason- trade deadline, or next seasons draft. One the Brewers may see multiple extra picks after a Chourio roy.
Keep him and try for another bite of the apple. Makes no sense to trade for second tier prospects.
Brewers fans have to stop pretending like this is a World Series team it’s not. Trade Burnes away while you can still get more then a comp pick.
Somewhat related sounds like NYM want to sign 2 more SPs
Find a SP that might sign for 1 year
Maybe 2/3 yr with year 1 opt out
Lugo, Woodruff, Mahle, Giolito, Matt Moore, German or Thor?
PLUS a longer term deal YY, Monty, E-Rod, Imontag (sp?) OR ?
If he wasn’t a boras client, I think he would have been a brave last year. Braves don’t really mess with boras clients often
Take the cubs off this rumor, no way they deal him there and then have to face him several times a year. 0% chance, regardless of return.
I work at a local furniture company in Milwaukee. His wife and her parents came in back in 2020 and bought furniture from me. He was in phoenix for spring training. I offered her an extended warranty on the furniture they bought. It was really high end furniture and she said and I quote “I’ll pass, I’m not sure we’ll be around here for much longer than a few years” it was already in the cards a few years ago. Bummed me out to hear it but made me wonder if there was any truth to it. The last season and a half it made more sense to me
Translation: Brewers wanna move him but they’re asking for too much. He’s only got one year left prior to free agency and he took a his hissy fit public about going to arbitration…teams don’t like that. So MIL will likely be stuck with him until they cop to a fair market value. Nobody “needs” Burnes.
I don’t get why people seeing the Brewers still having a good team. Great bullpen yes. Good defense mostly. The lineup is terrible though. They have only 2 hitters you can be safe in saying will put up a 750+ OPS. And for SP you have Burnes, Peralta, and ???
Well that’s your opinion. Chourio will be CF and his future is beyond that 750ops. Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer-Turang were rookies basically that generally improve. Tyler Black has 750+OPS profile that will join Chourio. There is free agency to add a 750+OPS 1b/3b.
As to SPs look for Ashby to return to a role starting. Adding Gasser to SP in 2024. Plus there’s FA to find the next filler Miley if not Miley once again. Or trades out of that glut of OFs can address another area of need. PM
What about signing Brandon Woodruff for 2 or 3 years. He’s Arb Eligible in 2024, so buy 2 or 3 seasons to lock him in for his first 2-3 years of Arb. You’d be gambling that he retains his form well enough to be called a successful comeback. He’ll miss most of 2024,so 2/30 or 3/50? Or would you rather have Burnea?
What’s Woodruffs incentive to sign 3yrs. He can sign middle of 2024 after he’s begun throwing again if he may return for even 2 games in 2024. FA and sign a real contract afterwards. It’s all about the team rehab and Dr.s situation he can gain signing a contract soon. But he can just go his own route stay a FA and do it on his own.
The only incentives I can think of are money (security) and working on his rehab using the Astros’ facilities, plus the team’s training staff and physical therapists. Maybe Woodruff has a good rehab setup already, So, we might try playing the JV card.
I don’t remember off the top of my head if Verlander used Houston’s facilities and staff for his rehab. If he did (and maybe if he didn’t) send him to visit Woodruff. Mentorship and support during rehab.
Of course, Houston doesn’t have the salary cap room. Oops, I mean luxury tax threshold. Well, it would have been nice. I’m not looking forward to interleague games with the Dodgers in 2024.
The Brewers are not a world series team. Can they get to a playoffs right now? Sure but I don’t see them being good enough to get to the world sereies. That being said you might as well trade Burnes and Adames for talented prospects that are near MLB ready. Take 2-3 years were the team might struggle as these young players develop but hopefully by 2025 or 2026 these guys have developed into what you hope for and can then contend