The Yankees and star outfielder Juan Soto have avoided arbitration, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The sides settled upon a $31MM salary for the 2024 season — a new record for the largest salary every agreed to by an arbitration-eligible player. Soto, a client of the Boras Corporation, surpasses the $30MM benchmark that was established by two-time AL MVP Shohei Ohtani just last offseason.
The 25-year-old Soto is coming off another strong season at the plate. After being shipped to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline, the young phenom struggled with his new club early in the 2023 campaign with a .183/.345/.344 slash line in his first 27 games.
Soto managed to flip a switch from there, however, slashing an excellent .293/.423/.554 the rest of the way to elevate his season-long slash line to a strong .275/.410/.519. The performance saw Soto walk more often than he struck out for the fourth consecutive season, earn his third consecutive All-Star appearance as well as his fourth consecutive Silver Slugger award, and finish sixth in NL MVP voting while appearing in all 162 games for San Diego.
Between that walk year performance and the three prior times he’d been through the arbitration process as a Super Two player, Soto now stands alone as the highest-paid arbitration player in history (at least on a one-year deal). A new record was always the expectation; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s model projected a $33MM salary for Soto, and both the Padres and the Yankees were surely anticipating a new highwater mark as well.
The looming precedent served as the impetus behind the deal that shipped Soto to the Bronx earlier this winter, as the Yankees surrendered right-handers Michael King, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka and top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe to acquire Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham. The Padres, after years of ultra-aggressive spending in free agency and on the trade market, were known to be looking to scale back payroll by as much as $50MM and simultaneously looking to replenish a rotation mix that lost Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha to free agency.
Soto’s stop in the Bronx could well be for one year, though the Yankees will surely do everything in their power to keep him long-term. However, he’ll reach free agency at just 26 years of age next winter and do so as one of the most accomplished young bats to ever reach the open market so early.
The rarity of this type of talent becoming a free agent at such a young age could position Soto to command a contract in excess of the $460MM net present value of Ohtani’s extraordinarily deferred 10-year, $700MM deal — and it’s also possible that he could lock in the lengthiest contract ever put forth if he and agent Scott Boras prioritize that. Last offseason saw teams willing to dole out contracts greater than a decade in length to Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts, each running through the players’ age-40 season. A contract covering Soto’s age-40 season would need to extend a mammoth 15 years in length, but for a player of this caliber at such a young age, anything could be on the table.
Soto, in fact, already rejected a staggering 15-year, $440MM contract offer from the Nationals back in 2021, which led to his original trade from D.C. to San Diego. Detractors panned the decision at the time, but with today’s $31MM agreement, he’ll already have pocketed $54MM since spurning that overture. He’ll “only” need to top $386MM in free agency to come out ahead, and as surreal as that number sounds, it also feels quite feasible.
Any talk of a record-setting deal (or close to it) in free agency next winter is putting the cart before the horse to some extent, of course. Soto will need to remain healthy in 2024 and continue to produce at the prodigious levels we’ve come to expect throughout his incredible big league tenure. Despite having just turned 25 in October, Soto already has 160 career home runs and is a lifetime .284/.421/.524 hitter in 3375 plate appearances. That incredible OBP currently stands as the 19th-best mark in MLB history.
Nice…
He’s going to test free agency.
Yankees’ loss if he does
Well, yeah…
He’s a Boras client he’s not even going to entertain extension talks from Cashman. Hal better be ready to open up that pocketbook next offseason if he wants to keep Soto. Especially if he has a an MVP level kind of season, which is very possible for Soto.
Not only is Soto a Boras client, the Yankees rarely do extensions. And the very few they have done haven’t worked out very well.
They did try with Judge, but Judge bet on himself and got his bag.
If they went to arbitration it would’ve been disastrous
I was hoping they would go to arbitration, just for the entertainment value.
Odds on Yankees keeping him? Over/under 40%?
He can go jump in a lake for what he wants to get paid
Cap, why do have an issue with his contract target?
I think it’s disgusting
What’s disgusting about being one of the best players in the game and wanting to be paid like it?
I think they’re great Odds. Yankees are desperate enough and Sotos toxic so it’s a perfect for New York.
Shadow, why do you say he’s toxic?
@gbs42….Indeed, why?
Maybe it’s inside info like a 2nd cousin’s ex-husband’s best friend who used to be a Washington clubhouse attendant.
There saying that because he was traded away from 2 teams that didn’t want to pay him in the future. Just salty fans. As a Dodger fan he’s ok except that constant smile.
The Nats offered him a good deal with no deferrals.
What he gets in free agency will not be life-changing money relative to Washington’s offer.
I’d take the field but it will depend on what they offer.
Over
I hope the Yankees sign him to a 15/500 mil contract. Would love to see their payroll jacked for years to come.
Stanton, Version II.
Under. Bank on him in a Texas uniform in 2025 and beyond.
Please no. They need pitching.
I don’t think the Yankees will let him leave now that they traded for him, so I think he will stay. But it will kill the Yankee payroll, which is fine by me
Nah. If signing him long-term was not negotiable the Yanks would have made the trade contingent on an extension like what the Dodgers did with Glasnow.
Point is though, they have the money. They’re just saving it. If they don’t lock him up, that trade is a failure.
I think Soto is going to go after a salary close what Ohtani got. It won’t be $700m, but he’ll be looking for something like $500-600m.
@Chaim Breslow’s Purse Is the trade still a failure if the Yankees win the WS this year and Soto is the WS MVP but THEN signs with someone else?
Maybe not. I think it would be successful if the Yankees win the World Series, but that’s a big “if”
That’s the goal. If you don’t think that can happen why trade for Soto at all?
How does Soto get $30, and Kyle Tucker get only $12M/yr? I take Tucker every day of the week.
It’s Soto’s last year of arbitration and only Tucker’s second. Plus, Tucker’s reference was the $5M he made last year.
The arbitration system is flawed, but it’s what they have.
Soto has the 19th best career slash line in MLB History. Tucker does not.
But Tucker is an elite fielder and solid runner, as well. Soto is Adam Dunn. Power, walks, can’t field, can’t run.
I’ll take the over. This dude is going to free agency no matter what, over half the league will be in on him if not more, but the Yankees will not allow themselves to be outbid.
Over. Who else will pay him? I would say its between NYY and NYM. A one dimensional player doesn’t fit LAD needs, and Ohtani has DH filled.
I know I live on my own island on this one, but I think Soto is the most overrated player in the history of the game. Not saying he isn’t a very good player, just not the “generational” icon he’s made out to be. I keep waiting, just doesn’t seem to happen.
Derek Jeter and Torii Hunter say hi.
People seem to easily forget some of the great players of recent years
Like Ryan Howard and Miquel Cabrera
Check their stats, those players were awesome and performed better than Soto has.
When Soto gets 140 RBIs a year I will call him great
Cap, Soto is miles ahead of Howard. And your use of RBI to evaluate their performance is updated by about 30 years.
That is your opinion, so now we have both stated our opinions
Yep, and everyone with a brain here has evaluated your opinion as “sub-Neanderthal” quality
And that is why runs scored is dramatically lower than 30 years ago. You would rather someone walk with a runner on third then drive the run home.
His unwillingness to use RBI as a measure is because he loses that argument.
Ryan Howard? Soto was 24 last year. Howard didn’t even make the majors until he was 24. But even then, Soto’s stats are better. His lifetime OPS+ is 157; Howard’s was 125, and only exceeded 157 once, in his MVP year. It’s pretty cracked to imply Howard was ever in Soto’s class; he’s not even a serious HOF candidate. Cabrera, I agree, was great.
Perhaps the numbers are flawed ????
So by your rationale nobody is great these days? SMH.
Yeah I mean his stats are always closely compared to Ted Williams’ and we all know how much of a scrub that guy was…
Williams played in an era that never called strikes on check swings that today would be called strikes
TellIt,
I’m sorry if you can’t appreciate Soto’s massive talent. He’s an amazing hitter who is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
Just look at the basic stat of OPS+ On base % + Slugging nuetralized for the era & ballpark. Soto is the 5th best hitter in the past 50 years behind Bonds, Trout, Judge & McGwire. Also Soto has a lifetime on base % of .421 better than any active player, Trout is 2cnd at .409 and 3rd is Judge with .396.
Soto & Judge in the same lineup is the closest thing any of us will see to Gehrig & Ruth.
jade: I don’t think you can use bonds or McGwire’s stats to compare anything unless you use their pre-steroids numbers.
just not the “generational” icon he’s made out to be.
============================
Personally, I’d like to go back to the days when a “generational player” only happened once a generation. Over the past three years, Soto only ranks #8, just among hitters.
Trade rumors overshot their prediction a lot. I assumed that he would fall into the 29-30 range. I was closer than the experts lol. Maybe, they should hire me.
@Tell IT Goodbye
I must be on the same island.
Look at Soto’s career OPS and tell us again that’s he’s not a generational hitter. He might be the toughest out in the sport
For real. The dude slashed 292/406/517 as a 19 year old rookie in the major leagues.
0.946 isn’t generational by any stretch. There are probably several guys in the last generation who had a higher OPS. Maybe, you are defining generational player as top 50 hitter of his generation.
According to B-R hitters most similar by age with Soto are Frank Robinson, Mike Trout and Bryce harper so I’m gonna say he’s a tad better than top 50 in hitter in his generation.
He currently ranks 27th all time in ops… ALL TIME #27. Clown
Trout, Bonds, Thome, Judge, Thomas, and Evan Carter (of all the people) have higher career OPSs than him if you are ignore sample size. That’s why I mean that the term is overstating it. Give him a decade and see how he does before throwing him ahead of Trout and Judge. I know he is great, but he isn’t “the best of his generation.” That is what I interpret “generational talent” as.
Sotos career OPS+ is 5th best of the past 50 years.
Sure when you compare a career to someone’s peak 5 years. Players stats drop as they age. Soto hasn’t gotten there yet.
According to Baseball Reference, Soto has the 23rd highest lifetime OPS+ IN HISTORY. And, he’s 24. Of the 22 guys higher, Trout and Judge are there. But there are no other players above him who played after 1970, except for Bonds* and McGwire*. baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_sluggin…
Leading OPS values change as offensive levels rise and fall. Soto’s 157 OPS+ is one of the very best in baseball since he reached the majors.
@deGrom is a troll. Every time we correct him with facts, he repeatedly spews the same nonsense choosing to remain ignorant.
So your facts are relevant but his are not? But he’s the ignorant one?
He might be the toughest out in the sport
===========================
That’s certainly true.
But he is also only #23 over the past three years in slugging.
And he is a poor fielder. He’s a fine player, but nowhere close to the best player of his generation. Depending on how you define a “generation”, the list starts with Trout, Ohtani, Betts, Judge at a minimum, and he probably isn’t as good as Freeman, Ramirez and Turner.
You’re 100% percent correct about all of things you mentioned. That’s why I said Soto is generational hitter. Not a generational player.
For players through age 24, with at least 1500 plate appearances, Soto is 16th since 1873 on wRC+ with 154.
If we say since WW2, he’s 6th.
1) Frank Thomas 177
2) Mike Trout 167
3) Albert Pujols 166
4) Mickey Mantle 164
5) Dick Allen 159
6) Juan Soto 154
(extras for fun)
8) Willie Mays
10) Giancarlo Stanton
11) Hank Aaron
12) Reggie Jackson
13) Ken Griffey Jr.
16) Don Mattingly
17) Bryce Harper
18) Fernando Tatis
I’d say anytime your name appears above Willie fkn mays on a list it makes you a generational talent.
His best compariaon, due to his speed and defense is Stanton. We will see how he ages.
Well when you compare the best 5 years to Mays 20+ years. Compare their best 5 and Soto isn’t on the same map.
Over. Closer to 60-70% and if the Yanks manage to win a pennant the odds go up.
Capitalism is disgusting. It’s even more disgusting when you realize the Steinbrenner family makes billions of dollars and still want to nickel-and-dime one of the top players in the game.
He’s worth Ohtani money. Arbitration burns bridges because the same thing happened with Judge when Hal didn’t want to pay him what he was worth the year before free agency but still signed with NYY ironically. Yankees are doing themselves a disservice by trying to pinch pennies with Soto because he’ll wind up going to a team that will actually pay him for his worth
They agreed on a number that represented the highest arb payout in history. What are you upset about?
Capitalism is disgusting? lol. It’s a business.
On the flip side, should players give money back to owners when they underperform their contracts?
I didn’t see Stanton doing that.
Do you prefer Socialism where you get to have the same things that I have, but I’m the one going to work every day while you stay home and post on here? 😉
Should owners pay players what they’re worth the first 6-7 years of their careers? Or renegotiate when someone like Acuña is vastly underpaid?
When judging just on field performance, Ohtani isn’t worth Ohtani money. How many innings does that twice repaired elbow have left in it? 30? A few seasons?
What are you on about? “Arbitration burns bridges ” They avoided arbitration completely with Soto. Did you not read the headline?
Yah capitalism sucks. We should let the government decide how much we each get. What a stupid comment! B
Nonsense. I’m just a commoner, and I negotiate with folks doing work on my house. You must be one of the few who tells people “sure, take whatever you want”.
Further, I’ve worked for companies that make more money the the Yankees. You know what they paid me? The going wage for my skill set, and quite frankly, I was very happy to take it.
That’s your economic lesson for the day.
That’s a horrible economic lesson. Like you said you negotiated just like Ohtani did with most of the league. Your skill sets and Ohtani skill sets are worlds apart.
Oh My !!
Due to radio, other social media and current pop culture bits….
….I can only ever read that phrase in the voice of George Takei…..
Lt Hikaru Sulu remains a top 5 in the Star Trek universes.
Top character from each network TV Star Trek series: Spock (TOS), Data (TNH), Worf (DS9),Holographic Doctor (Voy) and Shran (ENT), although I did like Sato from the alternate universe.
John Cho was better.
I agree with tellitgoodbye
Man some of yall are clueless. He’s completely worth the money, and he’s absolutely a generational hitter. Dudes been worth almost 30 war before he even hit 25.
Fun fact, he’s almost a year younger than Ronald acuna
Cena: Be careful about using the word “generational” too freely. It was used to describe Ohtani because he’s an awesome player at bat and on the mound. He’s the first player to do that at the same time (unlike Ruth) and do it so well. Gretzky was a generational player. No one in the NHL has ever rightfully been called that.
Weird you bring nhl into it, but plenty have been called generational talents. Crosby was the next great thing, and recently Bedard was supposed to be the next big thing. Conor McDavid was supposed to be a franchise savior. Weird point
Ok, I will list 20 current position players and you tell me if Soto is in the top 5. In 2023? In 2024?
I say no. Not top 5 of these 20 position players. Maybe top 10-12, is that “generational”? Not to me. “Generational on-base percentage”, mediocre fielding, an All-Star, a potential Hall of Famer.
Ohtani
Acuna
Betts
Harper
Tatis
Machado
Freeman
Olsen
Judge
Carroll
Semien
Bregman
Altuve
Trout
Julio Rodriguez
Yordan Alvarez
Jose Ramirez
Lindor
Arenado
Henderson
In today’s market, I think he is worth $3 million per month for ten years = $360 million, he will ask 150% of that, which will be an overpay. He may be a DH by age 30..
He’s younger than almost everyone you listed. I said he was a generational hitter, didn’t i…?
You’re a clown, but even if he’s a dh by 30, that’s 40% of the contract. He’s on pace to have a crazy good career
Harper, not Soto, gets credit for the clown comment.
So of the 20 players that I named, which ones are “generational players” and which ones are not? How many “generational position players” are there in a 30-year period, 5, 10, more?!
You keep using players, when I clearly said hitters. You can’t even follow the conversation
Well, I am glad we can both agree that he is not a generational “player” and that we both can agree that he is awesome with respect to his on-base percentage. If you want to limit it to a generational hitter as you say, purposefully excluding defense and base-running, I would still not rank him among the top five current active hitters. Yes, he is younger and less experienced that some of the others but less experience does not tip in favor of the generational moniker.
As a DH, I would rather have Yordan Alvarez. Do you think that Yordan Alvarez is also a generational hitter?
I think roughly half the teams will see it like you, but the other half will pay more than 150%. I respect your opinion, but respectfully disagree. Yes, I think he is top 5 of that list and the youngest of them. If I were picking a “generational” team (which undoubtedly gets thrown around too much like the word “legend”), using the past 11 seasons and not hyper-focused on last year; Trout, Harper, Betts, Ohtani, and Soto are my first 5 picks.
I do agree with you that – while I think it will be a huge overpay – he will nonethless get close to or over $500 million if he stays healthy in 2024 and does well.
I think he is worth 10 years at $360 million. I would not be shocked if the high bidder pays $40 million a year for 12-13 years.
Good picks: Trout and Betts are the active leaders for WAR for position players. I guess the question is for someone to be generational, how many seasons do they have to perform and are we going by existing performance or expecyted performance. Clearly Trout is in decline but not sure the others will ctach him.. Clearly Soto is ahead of Acuna right now but I expect Acuna to surpasss him pretty soon.
baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_bat_active.shtm…
I’d take Acuna over him all day, every day.
Not impressed with his Defense and base running but he can walk a lot
Makes me wonder if they convinced him to give up a couple million in furtherance of on going extension discussions.
There will be no extension. Soto is going to free agency. Soto isn’t interested in an extension. The Yankees don’t like extensions anyway. I’m sure they’ll bid once he goes to free agency as long as he passed this audition.
Judge went and tested free agency, got the Giants and Padres to make offers, took those to the Yankees, and the Yankees made a match he liked. Soto will do the same strategy on Cashman. I don’t blame him, get that bag!
I think he has awesome talent and ability, but from my eye test as an observer he seems a bit non concerned about things except for himself. Reminds a bit of Nolan Arenado which I guess ain’t all that bad but there is just something off for me. He may be great or he could turn into a Anthony Rendon and disappear after a huge contract.
460? Hey Steve, are you on drugs?
Soto is a slow, unathletic bat-only player with zero complementary skills who is a poor fielder and baserunner.
In other words, he’s really a DH, non-Ohtani DH at that, who is not the most talented and marketable player in baseball history.
Soto is probably the most overrated player in baseball right now, IMO.
Compare Soto’s career with Trout’s through 25, and Trout’s worst full season is better than Soto’s best full season.
Compare Soto with Yordan Alvarez, who is a year older. You can see that Alvarez is a better hiitter/baserunner/fielder than Soto.
Conclusion? Even 300/10 is rich. The Age really doesn’t matter when the player is already slow and unathletic.
I just farted ..Don Juan will get 15 at 38…so he will be a Dodger next year…actually Yankees won’t be a playoff team..so they can flip Him at Trade deadline…isn’t Cashman so smart..not
I don’t know yet if Soto is a generational talent. I do know we seem to have a lot of them currently. Personally I think the generational player was just signed to a massive contract by the Dodgers. There are a couple more who are in the conversation besides Soto.
Mookie, Acuña and Trout are definitely in the conversation. Ohtani of course, as well.
He’s a great player. One of my favorites. Good for him.
When you’ll have made 92 million before free agency, it’ll be pretty easy to bet on yourself.
Odd as it may sound currently, I think the Tigers will dole out an insane amount of $$$ for him next season and build its squad around him for the next decade.
HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa!!!
Not going to happen.