As Blake Snell continues to linger in free agency, speculation regarding him and the Yankees persists. The Yanks reportedly offered the lefty five years and $150MM before pivoting to sign Marcus Stroman on a two-year deal last month. Since then, it’s been reported that the Yankees still have an offer out to Snell, though the shape of that offer is presumably different after signing Stroman and pushing themselves into the top tier of luxury-tax penalization in the process. Whatever is presently on the table doesn’t appear to be a “take it or leave it” type of offer, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees and Snell talked about various contract parameters as recently as yesterday.
Notably, Heyman writes that agent Scott Boras has suggested the possibility of a shorter-term deal with higher annual salaries and opt-out opportunities. That’d be a pivot from Snell seeking maximum guarantees, as has been the case throughout the winter. It’s also not a concept that works well with a team in the Yankees’ situation.
The Yankees are a third-time luxury tax payor who are in the top tier of penalization. Any additional spending at this point will be taxed at 110%. And since the luxury tax is based on a contract’s average annual value, there’s no skirting the issue by backloading a deal. In that sense, dialing up the contract’s AAV only further penalizes the Yankees. The taxes are only part of the issue. New York would also be forfeiting its second- and fifth-highest draft selections, as well as $1MM from next year’s international bonus pool, in order to sign Snell, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres.
A longer-term pact that stretches out an agreed-upon guarantee while weighing down the AAV would be more sensible. The Yankees took that approach with DJ LeMahieu in free agency a couple years back, when he inked a six-year deal at a time when a contract around four years was widely expected. There’s no indication such an arrangement is currently being discussed, however, and going longer term on Snell would present the Yankees with its own slate of worrying factors. New York already has Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton under contract through the 2027 season. Each of Cole, Rodon and Judge are on the books through 2028, giving the Yankees $103MM in guaranteed money on the books in a season that’s still four years down the road. Add in the $10MM buyout on Stanton’s 2028 option, and that’s $113MM of considerations for that season.
Furthermore, they’ll very likely wind up tacking an extra year onto Cole’s contract this coming offseason. The reigning AL Cy Young winner has an opt-out in his contract after the ’24 season, but the Yankees can void that by picking up a 2029 club option at $36MM. That’d give the Yanks $76MM on the books as far down the line as 2029; adding Snell on a long-term deal designed to tamp down his contract’s AAV could push them close to or even north of $100MM in commitments a half-decade from the current season. Not only that, but Judge will be 37 that year and Cole will be 38. Snell would be 36. It’d be plenty understandable if the Yankees have some trepidation about locking in $100MM+ in guarantees to three players who’ll be 36 or older in 2029.
Heyman also notes that the Yankees have some interest in fellow lefty and fellow unsigned Boras client Jordan Montgomery, whom they of course originally drafted and developed. However, the Yankees prefer Snell, and the financial hurdles just laid out regarding Snell applies to Montgomery — but on a slightly smaller scale, as he doesn’t have quite the earning power of a two-time Cy Young winner.
Hope to see Snell in NY!
I don’t think snell wants to play there. I bet if sea offer 5/150 he’d take it
I don’t like imagining him without a goatee
Seattle is offering the exact same thing you’re contributing to this conversation. Nothing! Ahahaha!
5/$150m seems to a perfect contract for Snell. It’s a bit more AAV than a 5 inning pitcher, even one as good as Snell is worth and it gives the Yankees the shorter term pact they prefer. I have to agree he either wants to play elsewhere, is looking for more money or wants to anchor the staff. More likely Boras thought he could use the offer to squeeze another team.
MLB wants him in NY. If he goes to NY I’ll tip my cap to the Yankees.
That said ‘shorter term contract, higher AAV, with opt outs’
He wants to return to SD but ownership is cheap.
Won’t sign anybody.
Pocketed the 20 to 25 million.
Spent 100 million less than last year.
Raised ticket prices.
Profit over success.
I don’t believe that. This is the most disastrous mlb offseason I can remember due to tv money fall out. Snell to yanks will continue to drive casual fans away from the sport
No it won’t. Snell doesn’t move the needle with the casual fan.
Snell to the Yanks driving away casual fans is the most ludicrous thing I’ve read here this side of no one wants to play in NY.
Not one casual fan knows who Snell is because despite two Cy Youngs he hasn’t played for a big market team and hasn’t been the sort of dominant pitcher say a Strider has become. He’s not water cooler talk at all, and for sure, not enough if a needle mover to drive away anyone. Oeriod.
And then towhead posts and sets a new low for ludicrous.
Couple of typos in there, sorry, but y’all get it.
Snell to yanks will continue to drive casual fans away from the sport
===================
Not at all. Part of what drives some small market fans is rooting against the big payroll teams like SD & NY.
Padres march toward one of the worst teams in MLB continues.
The Padres are on pace to lose over 100 games.
tia
“The Padres are on pace to lose over 100 games.”
How about a wager?
Padres lose 100 games, I’ll delete my account
Padres are .500 or better, you delete yours?
Deal, or are you just trolling? Getting attention for saying s9methi g dumb because you can’t say anything smart?
I don’t wager with bots.
tia
“Getting attention for saying something dumb because you can’t say anything smart?”
Would a bot make that many typ9s?
You’re a chicken
Back up your claim, or admit your a troll getting negative attention because you can’t say anything intelligent.
If the Padres are .500 or better, delete your account
If you are right, and the Padres lose 100 games, you can think you eliminated a bot?
What are you afraid of?
I think all they need is snell to contend. if they offered 5/150- he’d be a padre again. If Boston is really in on Montgomery then you have to believe SD is still in the picture on snell as they have the cap space.
OR clevinger and lorenzen if they can’t afford snell and they’ll be fine
Fil, buddy, if you loose the bet and delete your account make sure you send me your email address so we can stay in touch
Bw
Pass
You can try and get in on eliminating me too.
Give me a hot taek
“You’re a chicken”?
Again, not here to dialogue with bots.
Yankees needs Snell to beat The Dodgers in the WS
Yankees probably won’t even make the playoffs never mid the World Series.
You are a bot. A bottom feeder. A troll. Definitely not a Padres fan.
tia
Don’t dialogue with me
Put up or shut up. Unless you know you’re just yapping to get negative attention because you can’t say anything intelligent.
Make the bet.
And I’ll mute your troll [butt] until the end of next season
Only reason not to is because you don’t believe the stupid stuff that your post here.
Troll
You just described Padres fans
Say the word and I will place $1000 in escrow that the Padres will win more than 62 games on Betopenly.
Put your money where your mouth is.
Otherwise, STFU.
The Yanks are not Championship material but they are a playoff team..
Hey Tow
Filihok will just start using it’s Samuel account again if it loses the bet. I would not give it the time of day either. I’m surprised it didn’t show you by typing a really tough muted comment. Pathetic
DP
Pathetic is how sure you are about something that you can’t know with certainty
The Padres are on pace to lose over 100 games.
=========================
I like to tweak some of the SD fans on account of their obnoxiousness earlier in the off-season, but you need to stay lucid. The are more likely to make the playoffs than to lose 100.
Give them Snell and they may have a punchers chance.
Darth Pug
Filihok will just start using it’s Samuel account
======================
You have proof of that? Because those two posters don’t sound anything like each other.
JB
tia doesn’t even believe that
They are just trolling, right, tia?
Or are you willing to put up?
Trolls like tia have to post bull[crap to get negative attention, because their actual thoughts are so bland that no one cares.
They have to say the Padres will lose 100 games eve though they don’t believe it. They have to call me a bot even though they don’t believe it.
Only their lies get them any attention.
And that’s the truth
You’re the bot casual fan. Padres still have a ton or talent and won’t be anywhere near 100 losses.
with Judge & Soto? The Yankees will easily make it. Judge alone puts them in every year.
SD ownership us the model of gluttony spending and debt now
Y’all missed the part where the owner died and tried to win one on the way out. It’s his money, business and empire, now he’s dead, rip
That’s the narrative.
What do the books say?
I didn’t miss anything. The reasons why the spending occured don’t change the consequences.
San Diego is head over heels in debt. Last year they took out an additional loan ($50 million!) just to finish paying payroll associated with that current season.. Yet they set a record for ticket sales at 3.3 million. Then, their owner dies. Sometimes a club just cannot spend $250+ million year after year. That doesn’t make them cheap.
One way to dispel that. Open the books.
The narrative is based on conjecture and assumptions.
The $50 million dollar loan could have leaked or fabricated to justify a need for “payroll reduction”.
They have a reported 20 to 25 million left to spend and haven’t spent it.
They have passed on an insane amount of affordable minor league contracts.
Not expecting them to spend 250 million a year but when you refuse to sign players to affordable minor league deals that is being cheap.
I’ll get in on that bet too.
That is 2 “bots” you can get rid of if they lose 100 games.
The silliness on this site is almost too much sometimes.
Lol
San Diego is one of the smallest media markets in the country. Before DSG went bankrupt and started dropping deals, the Padres had the second smallest TV deal in MLB (only ahead of the Royals).
The Padres ownership has been and still is one of the biggest spending teams despite being one of MLBs smallest markets. It’s hard to argue that the Padres ownership is “cheap” compared to the relative spending and revenues of other MLB ownership groups.
The Padres are not in debt. They took out a loan from Ascendant Capital to complete the purchase of land from the city of San Diego for a $1.5 billion development at Tailgate Park.
cisterra.org/tailgatepark.
After all the people that have posted that fact on here, I am not sure why anyone brings that garbage up anymore.
I agree….but we need to move a little past local market size and see the financial asset the league us itself globally. Every team through mlb properties and media plus whatever else should be able to afford to afford to put a solid team on the field. You can’t own a billion dollar minimum company rhat saw a valuation increase that was 10 fold in 20 years…and scream too much poverty.
We’re down to management skills.
Because people don’t like the comments and might not come for the what is a crap show, often
What would solve the problem is a salary cap. That way the owners are held accountable to spend roughly what the cap is for that season. There wouldn’t be questions about the budgets of different teams. Everyone would know the cap and the cap hit of the team and of a team isn’t spending they can be held accountable
The books say $237M. Next question
Mlb wants Snell in the rotten apple is one of the most generic and thoughtless comments spewed here in hours. We aren’t talking Steve Carlton here. You are dismissed with prejudice.
You may be the most pathetic person on here towhead.
STOP WHINING.
The Padres are not cheap.
They are not broke. (They just spent $20 million on the ballpark)
They are not pocketing anything.
Their payroll will end up right up against the CBT threshold or about $237 million.
As of today their CBT payroll is the 4th highest in team history and $80 million more than it was on opening day 2019.
Their actual payroll is $67 million more than opening day 2019. You may not have noticed that opening day is still 3 weeks away.
That YOU are stupid enough to believe that ANY team can consistently stay over the CBT without it affecting their long term plans says volumes. Even teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, teams that have roughly double the Padres slightly above league average revenue, try to dip under the CBT every few seasons.
The Padres raised ticket prices because we are buying record amounts of tickets. Its called supply and demand. I guess your 3rd grade education didn’t teach you about the economic realities of the world. The Padres have sold 26k season tickets this year, 2k more than their previous record last season, and already have 3.4 million tickets sold. The home opener is a month away.
Padres fans and the city of SD are over the moon excited about Padres baseball and have spoken with their wallets.
Yet you keep moaning and whining? How sad and pathetic is your life?
Let’s stick to the facts.
The Padres have not spent the alotted 20 to 25 million available.
The Pads have consistently passed up on minor league deals that could supplement the team while staying under the CBT.
The Padres lack starters at:
Cf
Lf
1b
Dh
1 to 2 starters
Veteran bench depth
The Padres are calling up rookies to full those holes.
These are the facts.
Screaming at me won’t change the fact this team will be competing with the Rockies for last place in the division.
I maintain its the post Peter Seidler’s ownership groups refusal to spend.
Sign even a few notable minor league signings and I’d change my tune.
Passing on Peralta and Voit among others who could fill voids cheaply reveals the true intent of the post Peter Seidler ownership group.
tia
“the fact this team will be competing with the Rockies for last place in the division.”
That’s an opinion, not a fact, of course.
Here’s another
FanGraphs has the Padres 12 games ahead of the Rockies for last place. They have them 5 games behind the DBacks f9r 2nd.
tia the troll here again saying dumb negative stuff to get a reaction because they can’t say anything smart that people will engage with
If you really think the Padres are that bad, and you’re not just trolling, put up.
If the Padres are closer to last by games than to 2nd by games, delete your account.
What do y9u say?
You won’t put up.
You’re just a troll
Fact is Tow, if you were to quit whining and just stay away from Petco Park you would save enough money to help pay your house payment, utilities and $5 a gallon gas. Which have all increased in cost year after year. It is what it is. We’re happy to be here having a great time. Put a cork in the whining. Sheeeez…
@Tow.
1. $20-25 M yes, and they will spend – some before OD, some during the season. It’s what MLB do.
2. There have been more than a hundred MiLB deals over the past few months, and while the Pads haven’t signed over 100 guys to MiLB deals, to please you I guess?… they have signed quite a few of them if you were paying attention.
3. CF will be either Azocar, Marsee, and/or possibly an addition via trade, or Mercado. They have options
4. LF. Merrill/Profar
5. DH. Pads like DHs who also are position players, and they like to DH position players (such as Manny) to give them rest. They might carry 3 catchers and you’ll see Campusano DH a lot. Batten or Pauley are likely to also be on OD roster and can play position. They are likely to add a 1B/DH veteran via FA or trade before OD.
6. 1 to 2 SPs. At least one SP will come from grouping of Avila/Brito/Vasquez/Iriarte. And it’s a given that they will add a SP before OD via trade or FA.
Those are the facts. Likely not to your satisfaction, but try to stay calm.
Put your money where your mouth is.
“He wants to return to SD but ownership is cheap.”
Educate yourself.
Diamond Sports Group (part-owner of Bally Sports San Diego) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
After repeated late (or no) payments to the Padres, DSG bowed out and the Padres’ broadcasting is now owned by MLB.
It’s been a financial mess in San Diego. They got rid of Bob Melvin for crying out loud.
MLB Productions owns broadcasting for failed RSNs in AZ, CO, and SD.
These RSN bankruptcies are real and blowhards like Scott Boras are standing on their imaginary soap boxes claiming teams can hand out $30M/yr contracts like candy.
Nuke, the Padres made record revenue in 2023 even with their RSN going bankrupt. They moved into revenue sharing payor status for the 1st time. Their revenue is expected to be higher in 2024.
According to the bankruptcy proceedings, MLB paid the Padres ONE payment of 80% of the amount of the $8.66 million May payment that DSG defaulted on. MLB didn’t have to pay the Padres any more money during the season because they didn’t lose anymore money on TV. They were found on every single cable, streaming, and satellite provider they were when it was Bally’s SD.
They also started selling the $19.99 per month single team MLB streaming package that is not blacked out locally that they now call Padres.tv. According what MLB said in the bankruptcy proceedings, the Padres and Diamondbacks had more than 300,000 subscribers at years end.
MLB is doing the production of the games for the Padres, they don’t own the Padres broadcast rights. The Padres do. They are helping negotiate rights, but considering their incredible leverage and knowledge as one of the largest streaming providers in the world, that makes sense that they would help the team. It also helps the rest of the owners if the Padres make more on their broadcast rights because of revenue sharing.
The Padres allowed Melvin to walk because he flat out sucked. His hands-off managing approach in 2023 led to a level of futility in close games that set a new low for the Padres. The guy was so disconnected in SD that he didn’t even have mandatory practice for the players. They got to decide when and if they would practice. I sit where I can see the dugout for games and Melvin rarely if ever spoke to a player. Not even in important situations. Flaherty did. Niebla did. Not Melvin. Good managers are involved with their players and COACH them when it counts. Good managers establish a culture within the clubhouse and on the field of going the extra mile. Melvin didn’t even try. He was so uninvolved that the players held a players only meeting when they returned from the road in late August and basically told Preller and the FO that they wanted Christenson, Flaherty and Niebla to make the calls the rest of the season because they had no faith in Melvin. That last month the team actually won.
Manfred told the owners at the owners meetings that he expects overall revenue to exceed $13.2 billion in 2024. That means that even with the RSN issues, revenue for the sport as a whole is continuing to go up.
Basically everything you said is wrong. As you tried to say to whomever you were responding to, educate yourself.
The team had to take out a massive loan to make payroll this past season and with the uncertainty around streaming rights and payments i dont blame them for rolling back payroll for a year or 2
a false narrative based upon disinformation at this point Murph
OMG, I just posted a link to the reason for the loan that was taken out AFTER payroll was completed for the season and you still spout that garbage. What kind of a complete and utter moron are you?
Why do you expect a lower tier mid market team to spend like the Yankees or Dodgers? The Padres ownership tried their best to bring a championship to San Diego the last couple of years. They even tried to pry Judge from the Yankees. You can’t expect them to spend like that forever. Didn’t their free spending owner die anyway? Remember a decade ago when Mike Illitch tried desperately to bring a championship to Detroit before he died? Detroit fans didn’t cry about the team cutting spending when he took his dirt nap.
Why support an ownership group bent on cutting payroll?
Forever grateful for Peter Seidler and the Seidler family for spending.
The Seidler family has lost their say in the current post Peter Sedler ownership group.
I support the team but do not support ownership until it’s proven a WS championship is still the goal.
If not sell or move the team, tear down Petco and build low income housing to address the burgeoning homeless problem in SD.
$237M
Two, I noticed that you refuse to put your money where your mouth is.
He’s gonna bomb there.
Yankees have all the leverage on this one. Cashman saw what Hoyer did with Bellinger and is playing the same tactic. But if a 150/6 deal is on the table, I say take it.
That would cost the Yankees $63m a year, more than some teams’ whole payroll. I mean, I guess money is no object, but man, that seems like a colossal luxury for a position they kind of have set (barring injuries of course). Maybe they empty the farm for someone willing to take on Stanton.
Moving Stanton is going to be difficult. He still has 4 years I believe, and he’s coming off a really bad year last year. He’s also a straight up DH at this point. The Yankees would have to eat a lot of money to trade him. But yes, signing Snell will be very expensive for the Yankees.
Stanton has a full no trade clause.
He isn’t going anywhere.
Citing the theory that nobody is untraceable regardless of contract and its details, with that No Trade he is very “untraceable”…..but, given that he’s from CA., with a bit of contract changes and the Yankees eating $$, it might not be impossible to trade him to either to the Padres, or the Angels….doubt the Dodgers would be interested, and he’s already turned down the Giants albeit that was several years ago and the Giants needs a “star” in their lineup….of course I agree he’s no marquee player any longer but his HR streaks can excite fans……
I know its hard to imagine. How about a scenario where Stanton gets traded home to California and Trout gets traded home to NJ? I’m sure alot of money would have to be eaten by these clubs but why not?
“Saw what Hoyer did”…Eventually Cashman will learn how to do his job. He should be embarrassed that after 20+ yrs as Yankee GM, he still doesn’t really know how to make deals that don’t backfire 80% of the time.
Yankees have all the leverage on this one.
===========================
No, they don’t. Other teams will offer Snell real money.
yep, and Hal is still willing to spend. I mean, Hal offered Snell enough money to put the Yankees well over the hard cap to begin with. If the salary cap was an issue, he would have not went after Soto to begin with. The Yankees could easily be under the cap. The original Snell offer would have put the Yankees over and they were looking for a closer also.
Imagine rooting for Snell,Cole,Rodon.
Yes, yes I will. Happily.
Anyone doubt that after Rodon’s start on Sat. that these Snell talks have heated up a bit…..Rodon’t stuff looked eerily like last year….2 pitch pitcher who will get rocked in the AL East…..and Rodon pretty much exhibited the same attitude when challenged like last year….blowing off his catcher in the 2nd when he walked 2 and hit a batter…..he exhibited the same behavior last year blowing off Blake…….when Cole told Boone to go back to the dugout he earned the right….Rodon hasn’t…..sign Snell and milk this guy for whatever you can…..they’re stuck with him for another 5 years…….
Rodon is damaged goods. Couldn’t believe even a deep pockets team would cave to a long-term deal.
True, but with the propensity of young, healthy pitchers having TJ these days, “damaged goods” is a term most MLB teams aren’t shying away from……
No way to tell anything at all after a pitcher’s first ST game.
If I were a Yankee fan, I’d be delighted with his velocity and 5 K’s.
Yea. Not really understanding what not to be optimistic about. His velocity sat in the 92-93 range, hitting 95 on the four-seamer. His control of the four seamer looked good. A few of his pitches were wrongly called balls (like the walk to Barger). He mixed in his curveball, slider and cutter. The cutter and curveball weren’t as sharp, but the slider looked good. For his first game, he showed some promising signs
Dude throws his first spring outing and he’s already under the bush. Gotta love Yankee fans. Then they’ll make him a hero if he wins.
And we guess that you would believe that any other teams fans would react differently…….hope he does succeed but he looked suspiciously like the pitcher who didn’t make it out of the first inning after reading about weight loss attitude change, and his interest in following Blakes pitching menus…….yes, it that constitutes throwing him “under the bush” (where did that term come from) than yes……
I guess we can give the Cy Young awards to Josiah Gray and Andrew Heaney by your logic. Way to jump to conclusions.
For the love of GOD stop with this nonsense as the financial parameters just don’t make sense to add an expensive starter who is not ace material let alone walks a ton of batters and rarely pitches past 5 innings. Its almost March, let him take his act elsewhere as no other team banging on the door to meet his outrageous demands and Snell needs to decide whats more important, play for a winner taking less money or seek the most money sitting home every winter playing golf.
If he doesn’t adjust his contract expectations, he will be sitting home and playing golf this summer too
How is winning a Cy young not across material?
The Yankees were winners last season?
I can’t see the Yankees picking Snell up… they’re taxes at 103%… Is Snell worth 60-70 million a year (once you add the penalty to Snell’s salary)? I know the Yankees can afford it but that’s alot of $$$ for 5 or 6 innings
110%
wvrf
“that’s alot of $$$ for 5 or 6 innings”
Go watch Moneyball. It’s over a decade old now
Teams don’t pay f9r innings. They pay for runs. Snell saves a l9t of runs.
110%
He is probably going to end up with three one year contracts like Bellinger.
There should be a lot of teams in on Snell for a short term opt out deal like what Correa signed with the Twins in 2022. This week is probably the cutoff for signing for pitchers who want to be ready opening day.
He has the QO attached, doesn’t make a lot of sense for teams to offer him a big enough guarantee to trigger that, but still give him an opt out after year 1.
Maybe teams want to sign him? I’m sure teams don’t want to pay him more than league minimum, either.
At this rate Snell should hop on Indeed
Scott still going to get a portion of his pay.
Here come the dumb dumb taeks
“He’s inconsistent”
“He walks everyone”
“He only pitches 5 innings”
That’s looking at things from a middle school level. The people making the decisions are looking at it from PhD level.
What he doesn’t do well isn’t nearly as important as what he does do well. And what he does is provide a ton of value on the field every year.
Snell is a fine pitcher and he will, deservedly, get a very nice payday. If the people making the decisions agreed with you though, Snell would have been signed by now.
CKSTL
You make no sense.
The people making decisions do agree with me, or, rather, I agree with them. Not like I’m the one who thought of this.
How much he should sign for depends on how productive teams think he’s going t9 be and the market. He hasn’t signed due to those factors, not because teams think like the middle schoolers here
@flihok The thing is his value from year to year is all over the place. He’s great sometimes, but isn’t durable or consistent.
Look at his WAR’s since 2018: 7, 1.4, 1.0, 1.4, 2.1, 6.0. That and the fact that he’s only thrown over 130 innings once since 2018 isn’t “providing a ton of value every year”. He’s great when he’s right, but rarely is… that’s the problem, and why nobody has signed him. I think he’ll be better than most think, but can understand why a team like the Yankees that just got burned by Rodon would not want to sign him to more than 2 or 3 years.
AB
I prefer the FanGrapha method of calculating WAR for pitchers.
And he shows a lot less variation there. Between 2.1 and 4.7 WAR since 2018 (2020 not included for obvious reasons).
though Snell was really good in 2020
Whatever WAR method you prefer, innings are innings. And someone with one season of over 130 since 2018 cannot be considered reliable or durable.
Having said that, he’s won 2 Cy young awards. I think he’s worth a lot of risk, personally. I mean he’s one of the best pitchers when he’s right, obviously. The fact that he hasn’t thrown a ton of innings the past 5 years may bode well for him having a healthy stretch in his career for a change, who knows. I’m not a Yankees fan and hope he ends up somewhere else!
AB
“And someone with one season of over 130 since 2018 cannot be considered reliable or durable.”
Who cares? Which goal posts am i shooting at now? Ah, these oveer here.
There are a ton of players who can pitch more innings than Snell and provide a fraction of his performance.
Teams aren’t paying for innings. They are paying for runs. Snell prevents runs.
Yup, and Chipotle provides great value too. What’s not to love?
30 MLB GMs are not agreeing with your assessment of Snell.
Js
“30 MLB GMs are not agreeing with your assessment of Snell.”
You can’t know that,
All you know is that he hasn’t signed.
You don’t know why,
filihok
Here come the dumb dumb taeks
“He walks everyone”
=====================
As a RS fan, I’d like to sign him to a reasonable contract. He’s really good.
But he walks everyone (figuratively). His 99 walks were the highest amount since 2012. Is it okay to say that?
JB
“His 99 walks were the highest amount since 2012. Is it okay to say that?”
Sure
Reminds me of strike outs though
Look at the list of all time strike out leaders for batters. It’s the greatest hitters of all time.
You can’t get a ton of strikeouts in your career unless you bat a bunch of times
Part of the reason Snell walks so many is because he’s good enough to get the chance ro face a lot of hitters,
Walks are part of his game, yes. So are a bunch of K’s and getting outs.
Money talks but injuries are the great equalizer
Signing players to longer deals to lower the aav luxury tax hit is only keeping teams in the luxury tax longer.
It does, but as long as the overall AAV isn’t bad, then you not only defer payroll, you defer the CBT tax.
Interesting stat: Blake Snell averaged 5.19 innings per start for his career. Marcus Stroman averaged 5.65 innings per start for his career.
@susanah But Stroman has been way more durable. Since 2018 Snell has thrown over 130 innings only once, Stroman has each of his past 4 seasons. Snell is way better than Stroman when he’s healthy, but rarely is.
Not disputing anything. Just stating that Stroman pitches more innings per start than Snell.
Susannah
And Snell prevents more runs, which is what matters
Last 3 seasons.
Blake Snell – 3.15 ERA, 5.25 IP per start
Marcus Stroman – 3.45 ERA, 5.433 IP per start
Last season
Blake Snell – 2.25 ERA, 5.625 IP per start
Marcus Stroman – 3.90 ERA, 5.346 IP per start
Much more relevant than what happened 8-10 years ago.
Pads Fans
RE: Much more relevant than what happened 8-10 years ago.
What a dumb statement. Snell has only played parts of 8 seasons, so what was your point in saying 9 or 10 years ago doesn’t matter. You mean when Snell wasn’t even an MLB pitcher?
And in his 7 non-Covid seasons, Snell has NEVER pitched even 181 IP. That’s PATHETIC.
Snell has thrown 180 innings TWICE in 7 years. 180.2 is his all-time high & that was 6 years ago! That stinks from a supposed #1 starter.
Moreover, in his 5 other non-Covid seasons, Snell has pitched the following # of innings:
89 (Rookie year)
129.1
107
128.2
128
Is anyone really stupid enough to think that 107 to 129.1 IP a year is worth $35-40 Million a year?
Mantle
“Is anyone really stupid enough to think that 107 to 129.1 IP a year is worth $35-40 Million a year?”
Is anyone stupid enough to think that innings is what’s important?
Moneyball is like 15 years old now. Teams don’t pay for innings, they pay for runs.
I’d certainly pay $40 million a year for a pitcher who would pitch 149 innings if I knew they wouldn’t all9w a single run.
Please be intelligent enough to not respond with something like “No pitcher can pitch 149 innings without giving up a run”. The point, remember, is that performance matters, not just innings totals.
“Snell has pitched the following # of innings:
89 (Rookie year)
129.1
107
128.2
128”
This is incorrect.
Not sure if you are intentionally trying to mislead people. Are you?
If not why are you ignoring Snell’s minor league innings? This is not a hypothetucal question. Please reply.
I’ve never seen Borass lose clients this much value. Concerns over the luxury tax and TV revenue (obviously not with the Yanks) seem to have shrunk the market for top-tier free agents and Borass pretends he never got the memo.
Who says it’s Boras turning down offers? He works for his clients.
“Who says it’s Boras turning down deals”…”What’s the most surprising thing in my many years as a Major League GM….Just how disconnected most players were from the free agent process…Most of them had no idea what the offers were, the years involved or where we stood in the whole process.?” – Longtime Major League GM Dan O’Dowd.
Seam
This
Amazing how little people know about…well, everything,
He’s gonna sign with the Yankees and it will be like Bellingers opt out filled contract. His best chance to get a ring is with them rather than his other suitors. Should have had one in Tampa so I think he settles with the Bombers.
1 year/5 mil plus incentives with the Dodgers.
Deferred?
this is all smoke and mirrors by Boras trying to get everyone else to make or raise their offer – Jack Curry gets inside information directly from the source and said these rumors have nothing to them and the Yankees have moved on (with Stroman instead)
^^^
If they actually sign Snell, it just shows they don’t learn. Ellsbury, Hicks, Stanton. All injury-prone
Disinformation Cutie. Snell has had illnesses (gastroenteritis, etc…) or minor elbow fatigue injuries almost every year that have kept him from making a full season of 35+ starts but no major arm issues ever in his career. For a modern-day MLB SP, he’s actually not very injury prone.
“minor elbow fatigue injuries almost every year”
“he’s actually not very injury prone.”
Uh…You just described someone that is injury prone. Severity doesn’t offset that.
LOL! Nothing like listing a litany of health issues to support the fact that he is healthy.
Many MLB SPs have have severe injuries = entire or chunks of seasons (Sale, Gore, etc..). Minor means missing a 1-3 games a season (Snell, etc…). He’s been quite healthy relative to most long SP careers in the modern era.
Just say no to Boras.
“Jason Werth will transform how Major League teams view outfielders” – Scott Boras.
The first 4 years of that deal were great for the Nats. It was the age 36-38 years that bit them in the behind.
126 OPS+, 10.9 WAR and around $80 million in value for the $59 million they paid was really good. The $63 million for 90 OPS+ and -1.9 WAR in ages 36-38 was not so good.
Sneel want Yankee
Another Heyman trickle piece.
Just a pawn on the Boras chessboard.
This is an old drum to bang, but I’m not buying anything about a Boras client when it comes through Heyman. This seems to me a lot more like “Well, the Yankees had a $150/5 deal on the table, so you, Mystery Team, will have to beat that. If the Yankee sign Snell, play more than $50M with tax, get penalized in other areas, sees Snell do his 5 2/3 IP per start thing, then midseason has to trade prospects for some middle relievers because Cole is the only guy who can make it through 6…
Seattle could trade a starter…sign Snell….and be so much better.
“Seattle could trade a starter”…That would be completely bonkers bro. I’d argue Seattle doesn’t need Snell and already has a top 3 MLB rotation. Seattle could already have 2 pitchers more consistent, predictable and reliable than Snell.
If the Yankees want to spend stupid money for a LHP, the Nationals would be happy to offer Patrick Corbin. He’s nowhere close to the pitcher he used to be but at least he’ll eat innings all season before he’s off the books. Which might be more than they end up getting from Snell.
Or even go all in – Corbin plus Strasburg and a reliever or two for Stanton.
That’s actually not a bad trade for either side.
Arm
“He’s nowhere close to the pitcher he used to be but at least he’ll eat innings all season before he’s off the books. Which might be more than they end up getting from Snell.”
This shows a massive non-understanding of player value.
Teams literally do not care how much a pitcher pitches. They care how much production they, uh, produce.
If Snell produces more in 100 innings than Corbin produces in 180, then teams will pay Snell more. As they should
Obviously. Snell’s looking to command way more than the $35M owed to Corbin, for which quite a bit of additional consideration would need to be provided to take off Washington’s hands.
FO’s might be going off Snell’s track record. Pitched way more innings and starts last season when a new contract was on the line. Didn’t do it for the several years after securing pre-arb extension.
Clubs might offer 2yrs/60-65 with an opt out to keep him motivated…..and not care a bit if they scoff.
So did Rodon the year before. Your point?
Rodon is a cautionary tale if you want to cite him as an example. Best execs learn from others mistakes rather than repeat them.
It happens year after year after year. Apparently they don’t learn.
Heyman is saying Yankees increased their offer from 6/150 to more than Rodon got. Snell turned it down and Boras returned with a 3/120 proposal with opt outs.
If the big boys get burned, no tears here. Most other clubs FO’s that can’t outspend long-term deal mistakes are the ones who have to be very careful who they trust to hand a boatload of money.
Pads Fans
So did Rodon the year before. Your point?
========================
Unless I missed something, that was your point. And I say this all the time. The biggest issues with some GMs is that they pay off of career years. And then are surprised when the players revert.
I’d rather have Monte, but he’s got a higher price tag
Montgomery is asking for much less than Snell.
Be a bit careful about the Monty worship…..age 31, 7 years in the league with a so-so record……he didn’t exactly lite up ST Louis before the trade last year to Texas where he had a very good run….but who is he, the Texas guy, or the previous seasons guy……
He produced 4 fwar in his ~184 innings in STL; 2.6 in 2023 (121 ips). He was better in Tex, but it wasn’t a huge difference.
2.6/121 – .0215
1.7/67.67 – .025
Not a yankee fan, but how the hell is 5 years $150MM not enough for blake frieken snell
2 time Cy Young winner and 2023 MLB best 2.25 ERA Blake Snell?
The Yankees original offer was 6/150 which is substantially less than the 6/162 they gave Rodon. They have since increased their offer to Snell, but its going to take a more than Rodon got by a decent margin.
Cashman needs to find a way to trade Stanton to some how save money towards his cap hit to then sign Snell to longer term contract.
Trade for nickels
He’s elite if he’s getting the K with all those walks on base. What happens when the ball carries out? Not so elite. If I were him, I would require pitching in a pitcher friendly park.
The Yankees original offer was a lowball and everyone knew that Snell was not taking a deal substantially less than Rodon got. Yankees have apparently surpassed the level of the Rodon deal, but Snell is not willing to take whatever they are offering.
Hearing that Boras is saying Snell would consider 3/120 with opt outs after years 1 and 2 in lieu of a long term deal. That would cost the Yankees $84 million in 2024 when you include the CBT.
Snell’s GF is expecting a baby and they live in Seattle. I wonder how much that is factoring into his hardball with the Yankees?
Let’s see how many guys we can put in the rotation who clearly don’t have the makeup to deal with the NY media and fans. Maybe make a play for Sonny Gray while we are at it. I’m not even knocking them about it, the NY media is annoying as hell, but it is what it is. Why chance it with that contract attached to it?
I don’t understand why a shorter deal for more annual money is appealing for teams in the highest tax level. Snell would cost 35M salary, another 38.5M in luxury tax, the loss of the Yankees 2nd & 5th round picks (and assorted bonus money) and 1M of their already lower international bonus. And then give him opt out too for all that?
Maybe after May when that draft pick compensation goes away, the Yankees would consider it.
FP
“I don’t understand why a shorter deal for more annual money is appealing for teams in the highest tax level. ”
It’s not. Which is why you see the Dodgers paying players for 10+ years
Yankees are trying to Jedi Mind Trick their way around the luxury tax issue and around the massive risk of signing Snell long term at any price point and I just don’t see them finding that pocket full of magic or a deus ex machina maneuver to make this make sense for them.
I hate to say it, but the Yankees might be done adding and may need to just stand pat- no Snell, no Montgomery- nothing. Just pay the salaries on the books and go with the team you’ve got right now.
I agree with you billionaire. I would like to see them add another majorly caliber even if it’s a four or five though that might not cost too much because we know that most of the pitchers on the staff are major injury risks.
A lot of innings are going to be tossed by unproven pitchers.
Forget Snelk! On top of the huge luxury tax they would have to give up two picks and international free agent money. Just sign Bauer. He’s better than Snelk, he will take league minimum and will be on his best behavior plus he’s has never been convicted of anything yet he’s being black balled while guys are still getting paid who have done far worse than what he was accused of even doing. If Bauer was found guilty than he should be suspended for life and arrested but the alleged victim is now the subject.
Snell!
bbb
“the alleged victim is now the subject.”
Citation requested
You should probably lay off the day drinking.
Time to pull the offer off the table; let him find a hill somewhere else to play coy with…
d
“Time to pull the offer off the table; let him find a hill somewhere else to play coy with…”
Exhibit A of why casual fans would make terrible GM’s
Too petty
The Yankees absolutely want Snell. They want him because he is a good pitcher
They aren’t acting like a middle school boy upset at his friend because he went their house to hangout instead of with him.
I don’t see the short term high average work for NYY (110% lux tax).
Here is a senario that NYY might like ( but its a long term )
10 years 210MM ( many deferrals )
10M singing bonus
2M each of the first 10 years
18M each next 10 years
No opt outs
NTC
pep
How much is that worth?
The $10 million bonus is worth $10 million
The 10 years of $2 million is worth $16.5 million
Tue deferred money is worth $95.8 million ($148.8 million over 10 years, then discounted 10 years)
Add it up and it’s $122.3 million
The straight 5/$150 is worth $131.7 million
Yankees would favor your deal
Snell would favor 5/$150
That ignores that the Yankees would control Snell for longer. Which favors the team, not the player.
The hole idea is to make it work both ways.
I figure it was around 13M in lux tax so it works for NYY
The 150/6 is not there any more.
If Snell is so inconsistent out of the 10 years you can get;
2 cy years
4 all star years
3 or 4 so so years
1 or 2 IL year
Why are the Yankees seemingly determined to add the wildly inconsistent & expensive Snell to the roster, rather than the more consistent Montgomery? We already know Monty can handle pitching in NYC, but we don’t know that about Snell, do we?
SNELL IS A GLORIFIED LONG RELIEVER, POSING AS A STARTER, because he only averages 5.1 IP a start over his career, and even when you eliminate the Covid season, Snell averages 134 IP per year, which is horrendous! (More on that later.)
The Yankees seem to be focusing on Snell because Brian Cashman is loathed to admit that he was 100% Wrong in saying Monty wasn’t a playoff caliber pitcher & for trading him for an injured CF, who couldn’t hit righties, who “only” comprise about 85% of starters in MLB.
Snell absolutely kills your bullpen every outing by averaging 5.1 IP, forcing the bullpen to pitch 3.2 innings virtually every outing. Over 30 starts — which Snell rarely does — that would mean about 96 IP out of the Bullpen to cover just one “starter,” which is absurd.
Moreover, Snell has started more than 25 games only 3 times in 8 years. Even if you throw-out the shortened 2020 Covid season, Snell has averaged 134 IP per year: which is awful, as Garrett Cole’s vastly superior stats show:
Over the same 7 years, Garrett Cole has averaged 218 IP per year, and yet Snell & Boras want Cole-type $$$ for 84 Less IP a year.
Other than in his 2 Cy Young years (out of 7 non-Covid seasons), Snell is a glorified long reliever as a “starter,” as mentioned previously, but it’s worth repeating. Here’s the evidence:
• Snell has pitched 436.2 innings the last 3 years, including his second Cy Young, which averages to 145.4 IP over the last 3 years.
• Monty has pitched 524.1 innings the last 3 years, including his World Series run last year, which averages to 174.7 IP over those years.
So, Monty has averaged 29+ More IP per year the last 3 years! That’s like giving your bullpen the equivalent of almost 10 games off that they would otherwise have had to pitch for Snell. That’s indefensible.
And it’s not like Snell’s ERA has been significantly better than Monty’s the last 3 years. In fact, Monty easily beat him 1 of the 3 years, and virtually tied him in 1 other:
• 2021: Snell 4.20. Monty 3.83.
• 2022: Snell 3.38. Monty 3.48.
• 2022: Snell 2.25. Monty 3.20.
And in the only year in the last 3 in which Snell’s ERA was markedly better, Snell won a Cy Young & Monty won a World Series.
I’ll take the World Series, thank you. Besides, the odds on Snell NOT going into another post-Cy-Young funk aren’t great, especially if he feels he’s being grossly underpaid in the pressure pot that’s NYC, versus the very laidback environments of Tampa & San Diego.
So, it’s worth noting that Snell has NEVER pitched in a high-pressure environment like NYC.
If Snell crashes & burns in 2024 & beyond — like he basically did for years after his first Cy Young — and only pitches about 130 innings, while Monty continues to be a very good pitcher who provides more IP, you’ll know who to blame: Brian Cashman & his immense ego that won’t allow him to admit he was wrong about Monty.
So, Cashman’s ego might preclude the Yankees from making the smarter & least expensive of two possible starting-pitcher additions.
Acknowledgment: There’s risk in every signing because of possible injuries. So, either or both signings of these two signings could ultimately backfire on their eventual teams.
But Monty has a better overall track record the last 3 years, and Monty will cost significantly less than Snell.
I respect Judge’s judgment, but Snell is too big a risk, based on his own record following a Cy Young year. And Soto, who also likes Snell, has only seen Snell up-close 1 year, so he’s not familiar with the 134 IP Snell with just solid ERAs, which aren’t worth $30-40MM, plus the 110% tax penalty.
Signing Snell may be disastrous in both the long term & short term because the Yankees’ first draft pick will be significantly lowered if they sign Snell, but not if they sign Monty, because there isn’t a qualified offer associated with Monty.
This is the sort of foolish move that only Brian Cashman would do.
Don’t necessarily agree with much of what you said…..especially that “Monty will cost significantly less than Snell”…..if that was the case, Money would already be signed…..
Dodgers should just sign him and end this mystery. $200m over 6 years, $194m deferred until 2030 – 2050.
Hope the yankees sign Snell. They have no hope of winning a WS with their roster, even if they add Snell. Just keep piling on those massive overpaid contracts.
And tell us, for players who have won awards, or statistically (and there are a ton of Analytics our there these days) lead in offense, defense, or pitching….exactly why contracts aren’t “massive overpaid contracts”!
You can sign a 31 Years old Wheeler (let’s say he’s 31 yo) to a 6 year 160-200 million deal. He isn’t injury prone + he is consistent at a high level. You can trust him, he is reliable. But Snell isn’t consistent and he’s pretty injury prone. That shows you how desperate the Yankees are. Yankees front office is one of the worst in the entire sports world.
Cashman needs to get Judge,Stanton and DJ to defer a little money so the Yanks can sign Blake Snell. Clearly there’s interest on both sides. This is how GMs make their money. Have to keep the lines of communication open with the players. Instead of going to the media and calling an employee injury prone.
Heyman Heyman Heyman = Not real