Kodai Senga has yet to pitch in a game this spring. The 2023 All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up is nursing a right shoulder strain. Although Andy Martino of SNY reported on Wednesday that “the word” on Senga’s health remained “very positive,” an update on Friday afternoon from Tim Healey of Newsday Sports is a little less optimistic. Initially, Senga was to be shut down for three weeks. Those three weeks have now passed, but according to president of baseball operations David Stearns, the 31-year-old “won’t throw for another 7-10 days.”
This setback likely removes any hope that Senga would return to the Mets rotation before the end of April, but an early May return is still on the table. Presuming he needs about six weeks to stretch out his arm, the righty could be back on the mound by the first week of May if he starts throwing again next weekend.
Needless to say, the Mets are hoping their ace misses as little time as possible. Senga made 29 starts last season, finishing second among qualified NL starters with a 2.98 ERA. Jose Quintana, who made just 13 starts in 2023, gets the Opening Day nod in his place, while Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser, and Tylor Megill are likely to round out the rotation.
More pitching updates from the National League…
- The Nationals have shut down Jose A. Ferrer as the southpaw nurses a teres major strain (per Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports). He will not pitch for at least three weeks. Ferrer, 24, made his MLB debut last season, appearing in 39 games out of the bullpen for Washington. Although his 5.03 ERA and 17.6% strikeout rate were unimpressive, he induced plenty of weak contact on the ground. Only a handful of NL relievers had a higher groundball rate or a lower barrel rate, per Baseball Savant. Ferrer was a strong candidate to make the Nationals’ Opening Day roster, and his injury leaves Robert Garcia as the only healthy left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster.
- According to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post, right-handed pitchers Dakota Hudson and Peter Lambert are the two favorites for the fifth and final spot in the Rockies starting rotation. Hudson, who spent the first six years of his career with the Cardinals, has more major league experience and a recent track record of moderate success. He has made 38 starts over the past two years with a 4.78 ERA. Lambert, who made his debut with Colorado in 2019, has started just 32 games in his career, pitching to a dismal 6.38 ERA. Even accounting for the different run environments at Busch Stadium and Coors Field, that’s a stark difference. That said, Hudson is more of a proven quantity at this point in his career, while Lambert could still have some of the upside that made him a fringe top-100 prospect before his rookie season. Hudson seems like the leading contender, but there’s a reason Lambert remains in the conversation.
NYM wise to play it extremely safe with Senga. I don’t know if this team as constructed w/ a healthy Senga is a WC team. But w/o Senga they don’t appear to be one at all
I’d take that bet, other than Alonso & Lindor everyone else had a down year
The Mets are probably due for some good luck. If Senga comes back quickly, they could have a sneaky good rotation. It’s not that hard to picture Severino and Houser having bounce back seasons, with Manaea continuing to trend the way he did in the second half of last year. It wasn’t even that long ago Megill was considered pretty promising. So there is potential.
Or it could all completely burn down in typical Mets fashion. But baseball rarely goes the way you expect and that could work in the Mets favor this year.
The Mets have been due for some good luck since 1986. Doesn’t appear to be coming anytime soon.
I could see the lineup being good if healthy, and alvarez improving. Youre right, the rotation could be okay, but so many health questions.
@10centBeerNight Definitely not a wild card team even with Senga, beyond the 5%-15% chance every 77-78 win team possesses, but worse for the Mets’ chances they’re an old team. Not just an old team, but a team whose nucleus of productive players is post-prime age, every one. And Senga is now hurt; Diaz will have to come back from a very serious injury. Their thin, thin depth thanks to Mauricio’s injury is gone—that’s figured in to the 77-78 win median projection, of course—but it also means the Mets will be leaning more heavily on not just replacement level (0.0 WAR) players, but negative WAR players similar to Mendick and Arauz (who alone combined to cost the Mets 1,4 Wins in 2023) a cost few projection systems acknowledge.
Still, this may well keep Senga in NY for 2026 and 2027, probably a good thing even if he’s only giving them 100 innings for his 15m AAV. He might be the #3 postseason starter on the next good Mets team.
Sayonara Mets
Trade Alonso at the deadline then resign him in the offseason.
If my Pads are out of it, I want the same for Ha-Seong.
Mets staff looks like a waiver wire rotation.
Almost, but Quintana’s actually good (albeit in about a half season), and Houser and Manaea are solidly… not terrible. Severino, well, there’s a chance, and Megill’s bad, but not so bad you can’t use him. (Pity the Mets never had enough starters to make Megill and Peterson their 2-3 inning guys, their main MIRPs—that might have actually worked. Check out their first and second time through the order stats compared to the third time through..)
“A Step Up from the Wire,” perhaps?
I’m looking forward to Lucchesi and Butto getting innings. One option left, each, so they may not get MIRP time, instead getting called up as more starters fall by the wayside, only to be used as a ‘break glass’ situation, in hopes of preserving their options into 2025—a standard sort of Stearns move.
Senga wont be back until the All Star break — might even miss the season ? why rush him this team isnt going anywhere
Dakota Hudson pitching at Coors Field is a recipe for disaster. The guy just refuses to throw strikes. I was very surprised he chose to sign with Colorado and I was somewhat less surprised(but still surprised) Colorado chose to sign him.
There is no formula for allowing that many baserunners and not getting lit up in Colorado.
Mike Rizzo has always had difficulty constructing bullpens, particularly as relates to left handers. When they were a good team, he routinely, built his pen on the fly, usually picking up 1 or 2 relievers at the deadline.
Don’t know why they keep sending Lucchesi down. He’s always been affective for them.
Somebody must not like him.
Also they should sign Lorenzen. Very serviceable & can be pinch hitter.
From MLB.com:
Joey Lucchesi entered Spring Training behind most other Mets pitchers and has yet to catch up. After Lucchesi sat 88-89 mph during his spring debut on Tuesday and allowed four runs, the Mets optioned him to Minor League camp. Lucchesi remains a rotation option for later this season, but he’s no longer a candidate for Opening Day.