A lot has gone right for the Yankees in 2024. Even without the services of reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole through the season’s 30% mark, they find themselves atop the American League East by a measure of two games over the second-place Orioles. The Rays, eight games back, are a distant third. Boston and Toronto follow with deficits of 8.5 games and 10.5 games, respectively.
Beyond Cole’s absence, the Yanks dealt with a prolonged slump for 2022 MVP Aaron Judge and have yet to get so much as a single at-bat from DJ LeMahieu due to a fractured foot suffered in spring training. Setup man Jonathan Loaisiga pitched only four innings before requiring internal brace surgery. On the flip side, Juan Soto has lived up to the billing as a middle-of-the-order force. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes both look like the pitchers the Yankees expected them to be in 2023. Marcus Stroman has handled himself well, albeit with an uncharacteristic uptick in walks.
For all the big names turning in marquee and/or rebound performances, the Yankees have also seen substantial improvement from a key in-house arm. Righty Clarke Schmidt was a top prospect long before he made his MLB debut, and he made 29 serviceable starts last season, so it’s not as though he wasn’t expected to contribute at all this year. But heading into the season, Schmidt looked like a clear back-of-the-rotation arm.
About one-third of the way through the 2024 season, that’s no longer the case. Schmidt still looks the part of a big league starter, but he’s taken considerable steps forward and now looks like far more than a garden variety innings eater. Schmidt has upped his velocity by a bit more than a mile per hour on both his cutter (up from 91.5 mph to 92.6 mph) and sinker (93.6 mph in 2023, 94.7 mph in 2024). Schmidt is also taking a page from the Corbin Burnes playbook, throwing more cutters than at any point in his career, and doing so at the expense of his sweeper and sinker. It’s not an overwhelming change in pitch selection, but Schmidt has gone from throwing that cutter around 28% of the time to 35.5% of the time in 2024.
The biggest change for Schmidt, however, isn’t necessarily one of pitch usage but rather of pitch effectiveness. Opponents in 2023 teed off on his sweeper, blasting the pitch at a .276/.331/.559 pace when putting it into play. Opponents basically became 2023-24 Gunnar Henderson when putting Schmidt’s sweeper into play. That’s … not good. (Well, not good for Schmidt.)
In 2024, Schmidt has actually taken a bit of life off that breaking ball. Coupled with the uptick in cutter/sinker velocity, the gap between those harder pitches and his primary breaking ball has widened by around two miles per hour. Last year saw a 5.3 mph gap between his cutter and sweeper, and a 7.4 mph gap between the sinker and sweeper. This year, those differentials are up to respective marks of 6.9 mph and 9.0 mph. Additionally, by measure of Statcast, Schmidt’s sweeper is also generating an extra 3.3 inches of horizontal break over last year’s version of the pitch.
The tweaks are subtle but the changes in Schmidt’s results aren’t. Through his first 10 starts of the season, the right-hander touts a 2.59 ERA (3.54 FIP, 3.38 SIERA). His strikeout rate is up from 21.5% to a career-best 27.2%. His walk rate has worsened, but only slightly, and at 7.6%, it’s still a percentage point better than the league average. Schmidt is generating more swinging strikes (10.2% in 2023, 12.2% in 2024), getting more called strikes and has seen his opponents’ contact rates drop both in the zone and off the plate. A hearty 41% of batted balls against Schmidt last year traveled 95 mph or more, but this year that rate is down to 34.8%. His opponents’ average exit velocity is down roughly one mile per hour. He’s allowing less contact, and the balls that are put into play against him are generally more timid in nature.
Schmidt’s step forward is well-timed for the Yankees on multiple fronts. Not only does it dovetail with a time when rotation depth is paramount for the Yankees as they await Cole’s return, it also comes when Schmidt is still controllable for a considerable period of time. Schmidt is 28 and already into arbitration, earning $2.184MM this season, but he’s a Super Two player who was only first-time eligible this past offseason. The Yankees control him for three more seasons.
While Schmidt’s arb price will rise considerably if he can sustain even 80% of the gains he’s made this season, he’ll still be priced well below market levels at a time when the Yankees are in the final years of some relatively heavy veteran contracts. Stroman ($18.5MM next season, plus an $18MM vesting option for 2026), Anthony Rizzo ($17MM club option), LeMahieu ($15MM in 2025 and 2026), will all still be on the books in the short-term, when Schmidt’s price tag is particularly affordable. Given the Yankees’ long-term commitments to Cole, Judge, Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton — plus their obvious hope of re-signing Soto — having low-cost contributors like Schmidt play key roles is of even greater importance.
Speaking of Soto, his very presence on the roster made it crucial that Schmidt and other in-house arms step up in 2024. The Yankees parted with notable pitching depth to acquire Soto from San Diego, sending Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and top prospect Drew Thorpe to the Padres in that package. King would’ve been locked into a rotation spot in the Bronx, and each of Brito, Vasquez and Thorpe were depth options for this year’s rotation. You could argue it’s a quantity-over-quality group, but the Soto trade left the Yankees with much less depth to rely on in the event of injuries. A step back from Schmidt would’ve been magnified even further with Cole on the shelf.
Instead, Schmidt has taken significant steps forward — thanks to changes that make much of his improvement feel sustainable. He’s not likely to keep running a sub-3.00 ERA, but Schmidt looks far more like a mid-3.00s type of pitcher than the 2023 version of himself that appeared ticketed for a mid-4.00s mark.
“ThE yAnKeEs BeTtEr SiGn SnElL oR mOnTgOmErY bEfOrE sPrInG tRaInInG eNdS!”
🙂
The Yankees better get Cole back soon. Most of the starters have not pitched a lot of innings. Second half could get interesting.
mlbnyyfan – we’ll see homie. I’m just glad that the Yankees didn’t panic and throw more cash at the problem when Cole got hurt. The question is who will they send to the bullpen when Cole is ready to start again? The way Gill is pitching is also refreshing.
It usually works itself out. By the time Cole is ready one of the starters may be on the IL. Not trying to be negative but it’s rare to have 5 starters healthy for the duration of the season.
Yankee starters have been going deeper than most this year and they are doing great.
trade deadline will be especially crucial for cashman this year. can’t assume soto will return so he better be in full GFIN mode
Schmidt is very confident and has always had good stuff. He needed to become more efficient in his pitch usage this season, which he has done to some degree, but there’s still room for even more growth here. That’s a good thing. He’s already good but I see him getting even better.
With the swagger of José Lima (RIP)
2024 Cy Young and World Series MVP.
TIME Magazine person of the year
@Craven. why not go with a 6 man rotation. However I have to see it to believe it that Cole is coming back. IMO if he opts of contract I hate to say it sat good bye. TJ surgery could be in his future and his age don’t bring him back.
We’ll see bruthur. It’s also great seeing Nestor and Rodon bounce back thus far after last year’s debacle of a season.
Old York? What happened? You had the Mariners in the World Series, remember? Please don’t waiver in your support, plus the M’s could take the Series with a win in the Bronx later this morning. I’m praying to Baby Jesus about it right mow.
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b
He’s getting traded to the M’s when the Yankees inevitability collapse in the 2nd half.
This is the first year since 1998 I have had some respect for the Yankees. they are still trying to buy a title, but they have made some nice trades and farm system moves
Even if Cole gives you a dozen or more good starts when he returns, I would let him walk if he opts out , risk reward balance isn’t worth it
And how much money is Schmidt’s agent giving MLBTR to write this player-friendly puff piece and help him get a better contract? There is no transaction news or rumor here and Schmidt is clearly not a trade candidate. Nor does this mention the possibility of an extension. It’s just some stats regurgitated from publicly available sites to say “hey, my guy is good, let me try and get him an extension or more arb money.”
Just like the recent infusion of ad posts here, a shameless attempt to get dough. And yet another weak attempt by MLBTR to be like Fangraphs. Plus, why on earth would you pay for this feeble
Stay in your line: you’re a transactions site, not a stats site. There is nothing novel about “ohhhh so-and-so is good, here are some stats I found that anyone would see if they check is page on Statcast.”
Stop this nonsense.