Latest On Rockies’ Deadline Outlook

The Rockies enter this year’s trade deadline season in a familiar place. They’re sitting at the bottom of the NL West, 20.5 games out of first place and even a whopping nine games out of fourth place. Their 27-51 record has dipped behind the Marlins for the worst in the National League. Only the White Sox (21-58) have a worse record among MLB teams. They’re staring up at a 12-game deficit in the Wild Card race. Colorado isn’t mathematically eliminated from the postseason yet, of course, but the final nail on any faint playoff aspirations they may have harbored has long since been driven into the coffin.

Normally, this would set up a team to consider itself a pure seller at the deadline. The Rockies surely view themselves in that light to an extent, but not to the same extent as onlookers might expect. Reports more than a month ago indicated the team was quite unlikely to trade third baseman Ryan McMahon, for instance, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post doubles down on that sentiment in his latest look at the Rockies and the trade deadline, writing that there’s “nearly zero” chance McMahon will move. Specifically, he lists McMahon as a favorite of owner Dick Monfort, suggesting that even if GM Bill Schmidt and his crew wanted to field offers on the potential All-Star infielder, a deal wouldn’t necessarily be in the cards.

On a similar note, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Rockies have yet to hold any trade discussions surrounding right-hander Cal Quantrill. The team’s decision to buy low on the righty after the Guardians designated him for assignment last November — effectively a non-tender — has paid off in spades. Quantrill is sporting a 3.50 ERA in 90 innings out of manager Bud Black’s rotation. His 17% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate are both worse than average, but Quantrill’s 46.9% grounder rate is a career-best mark. His move to Coors Field also hasn’t dampened his characteristic knack for keeping the ball in the yard; Quantrill’s 0.90 HR/9 mark is not only better than the 1.06 mark he carried into the season — it’s a career-best rate for the former No. 8 overall draft pick.

Quantrill’s success is one of the best developments for the Rox this season, but he’s also not far from free agency. The righty is being paid $6.55MM in 2024 and has just one year of team control remaining. He could command around $10MM in arbitration this winter and would be a free agent following the 2025 season. Given his 2024 rebound, dwindling club control and mounting price tag, that would make him a logical trade candidate for most clubs.

The Rockies, however, have a history of extending just this sort of veteran. They’ve done so with Daniel Bard, C.J. Cron and Elias Diaz when all had previously stood as logical deadline trade candidates. Colorado has been particularly aggressive in extending pitchers, locking up Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and German Marquez to long-term deals. Of those three starting pitcher extensions, only the Marquez pact worked out in their favor. The Rockies weren’t successful in completing an extension with Jon Gray but still held onto him at the deadline three years ago (despite trade interest) in hopes of working out a long-term deal.

While there’s no firm word yet that the Rockies have approached or plan to approach Quantrill about an extension, it’s a logical conclusion to draw based both on their operating history and the lack of trade talks to date. Add in that Quantrill has spoken previously about being motivated by pitching at Coors Field, and it’s even easier to see Rockies brass being warm to the idea.

Indeed, Saunders writes in that same weekend piece that both Quantrill and teammate Austin Gomber could be candidates for such a deal. Gomber, like Quantrill, is enjoying a rebound campaign and is arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season. The 30-year-old southpaw has a spottier track record and lesser results but also a lower price tag (both on a contract and in a trade) as a result. It bears emphasizing that there’s no firm indication yet that the Rockies will steadfastly refuse to listen to offers on either pitcher, but history tells us it’s less than likely.

All of that raises the question as to which players the Rockies might actually consider moving. Saunders notes that one of Elias Diaz or Jacob Stallings is a fair bet to change hands, as is the case with reliever Jalen Beeks and outfielder Jake Cave. Diaz, Stallings and Beeks can become free agents this winter. Cave is controlled through 2025.

The two veteran catchers are having strong years at the plate — Diaz is hitting .303/.352/.439 (107 wRC+), Stallings is at .293/.371/.466 (123 wRC+) — though Diaz is currently on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Diaz is earning $6MM to Stallings’ $1.5MM. Stallings once graded as one of the game’s premier defensive catchers, but his glovework has deteriorated a bit in recent years and it’s actually Diaz who draws more favorable marks at this point.

Beeks, 30, has stepped up as the de facto closer in Black’s bullpen after much of the relief corps has struggled at large. He’s pitched to a 3.76 ERA and saved six games in 38 1/3 innings but has done so with a subpar strikeout and walk rates (18.8% and 10%, respectively). Beeks has a $1.675MM salary that’s plenty affordable and a nice track record outside of last year’s anomalous 5.95 ERA, but it’s unlikely other clubs would look at him as an option for the same type of high-leverage role he’s currently holding down for the Rockies. The 31-year-old Cave, meanwhile, is a career backup who’s hitting .258/.312/.336 (68 wRC+). He can play all three outfield spots and first base, but he hasn’t turned in even an average offensive season since 2019 with the Twins. It’s doubtful he’d fetch much in a swap, but Beeks could draw a marginal prospect from a club seeking left-handed bullpen help.