Orioles Interested In Blake Snell

Giants left-hander Blake Snell might be available before the trade deadline, with the Yankees, Padres and Cubs having already been connected to him in rumors. The Orioles can be added to that pile, as Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports on X that the O’s are “aiming high” at the deadline thanks to their new owner and strong farm system.

The Orioles have generally acted very conservatively in recent years, hardly spending any money at all. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, since April 2018, the O’s haven’t given out a larger contract than the $13MM deal for Craig Kimbrel. The only multi-year deals they have given out have been two-year extensions for John Means and Félix Bautista, players that were already controllable but facing recoveries from Tommy John surgeries.

The lack of spending was somewhat justifiable while the club was in the depths of a rebuild, but it has carried over into the new competitive window that they are currently in. It has been speculated that things might open up once the planned sale of the club went through and there are some signs that is now happening.

David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club didn’t become official until the end of March, the cusp of Opening Day, so the O’s still had a fairly modest offseason. But here in the lead-up to the deadline, they have shown a willingness to absorb some money, both for this year and into the future. They acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays, with that pitcher still owed roughly $3.8MM of his $11MM salary and a big spike to $18MM next year. They also acquired Seranthony Dominguez from the Phillies, who is making $4.25MM this year and has an $8MM club option for next year.

Acquiring Snell would be a risky proposition on account of his opt-out but the O’s are perhaps the club best suited to take such a risk. As recently laid out by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in a piece for Front Office subscribers, teams are usually hesitant to trade for players with player options or the ability to opt out. There’s no real difference between the terms “player option” or “opt-out”, as either one gives the player the control over what transpires.

Trading for such a player at the deadline comes with more downside than upside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will trigger the opt-out and leave, making them a rental. If they perform poorly or get hurt, the club is stuck with them at a price that’s unpalatable, as the player wouldn’t have accepted it otherwise.

Due to their lack of spending in recent years, the O’s came into this year with almost nothing on the books for 2025 and beyond. The $1MM owed to Bautista was the only guarantee, though they have since added Eflin’s $18MM, as mentioned. They have a few club options and some arbitration-eligible players, but they have hardly anything committed for next year.

Snell signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants coming into 2024. That comes in the form of a $15MM salary and $17MM signing bonus, the latter of which is reportedly not transferable to a trade partner. He then has a $30MM player option for next year.

The results have been inconsistent so far, as they have been throughout much of Snell’s career. He has two Cy Young awards, in 2018 and 2023, but struggled in between. Though he was in Cy Young form just last year, his 2024 got off to a rough start.

Since he didn’t sign until the second half of March, he had a hasty ramp-up and then struggled in his first three starts. He landed on the injured list with an adductor strain, came back for three more bad outings, then returned to the IL with a groin strain.

He was sitting on a 9.51 ERA after those six starts but has since returned and been dominant. He’s made four starts since coming off his second IL stint and only allowed two earned runs in 24 innings. He has struck out 35.7% of batters faced in those four outings, highlighted by punching out 15 Rockies in six shutout innings on Saturday.

The Giants are below .500 at 53-55. That only puts them 3.5 games back of a playoff spot in a relatively weak National League Wild Card race, but they may consider doing some selling. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs still give them a 21.2% chance of sneaking into the postseason though the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them down at 9.8%, which could lead to them prioritizing the future.

Making Snell available could allow them to recoup some prospect talent while also clearing $30MM off next year’s payroll that they could reinvest in the team. That might happen anyway if Snell opts out but isn’t a guarantee. Such a move would hurt them in 2024 but wouldn’t necessarily punt their season, as they could still go into the stretch run with a rotation core of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray. There’s also Alex Cobb, who was supposed to be reinstated from the IL over the weekend but was delayed by a blister. The club also has young starters like Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong that they could work into the mix.

Snell’s talents will undoubtedly lead to many exploratory calls, but the offers might be tempered by the player option situation. That’s especially true of club’s with competitive balance tax concerns, which applies to the three other clubs connected to Snell. The Yankees are slated to be a third-time payor and above the fourth tax tier, meaning they are facing a 110% tax on any new spending they take on. Next year’s payroll is more open but they will want to have some powder dry for making a run at Juan Soto and other free agents. The Padres and Cubs are both right up against the base CBT threshold this year and seem loath to cross it.

The O’s are nowhere near any tax concerns and have loads of payroll flexibility, making them an interesting fit on Snell. The front of their rotation now consists of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Eflin, with Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez in the back end. Kremer’s career 4.32 ERA makes him fine for eating regular season innings but the O’s would ideally like to push him out of consideration for playoff starts. Suarez has a solid 3.62 ERA this year but is a 34-year-old journeyman who didn’t pitch in the majors from 2018 to 2023, meaning Baltimore probably doesn’t want to be relying on him either.

Whether it’s Snell or someone else, it seems possible they make some kind of bold strike in the days to come. In addition to the payroll flexibility, their farm system is regarded as one of the best in the league, giving them plenty of prospect capital to work with. The trade deadline is Tuesday at 5pm Central.