The Royals announced this afternoon that they’ve designated right-hander Colin Selby for assignment. The move clears a spot for left-hander Kris Bubic, who has been activated from the 60-day injured list, on the 40-man roster. Lefty Walter Pennington was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Bubic on the active roster.
Selby, 26, made his MLB debut with the Pirates last year and struggled to a 9.00 ERA despite a 4.80 FIP in 24 innings of work. He remained on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster throughout the offseason but was designated for assignment in early April when the Pirates needed to clear space for catcher Joey Bart on their 40-man roster. The Royals promptly swung a trade to acquire Selby later that week, and he’s been in the Royals organization ever since. The righty made just two appearances total for Kansas City at the big league level where he surrendered three runs (two earned) on two walks and two hits without recording a strikeout.
The majority of Selby’s season has come at the Triple-A level, where he’s pitched to a 5.32 ERA in 22 innings of work between his time with the Pirates and Royals. Those mediocre results have come despite an excellent 29.5% strikeout rate at the level, as Selby has been held back by an elevated 11.6% walk rate. Selby’s penchant for giving up free passes has followed him at the big league level as well, as he’s walked 13.4% of the batters he’s faced in his 27 innings of big league experience while striking out a decent 23.6%. The Royals will have one week to work out a trade regarding Selby or attempt to pass him through waivers. If he clears waivers, the club will have the opportunity to outright him to Triple-A, where he’d serve as a non-roster depth option.
Selby’s departure makes way for Bubic, who is making his return to the big leagues after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in April of last year. The 26-year-old was selected by the Royals with the 40th overall selection in the 2018 draft and made his big league debut with the club back in 2020 as a starting pitcher. In three years as a member of the club’s rotation, Bubic generally posted results commensurate with those of a typical back-end starter. He pitched to a 4.89 ERA (90 ERA+) with a similar 4.93 FIP in 309 innings of work. While he struck out a decent 20% of batters faced, his 10.5% walk rate was on the high side and limited his effectiveness.
Bubic entered the 2023 season once again as a part of the rotation in Kansas City, and through three starts he appeared as though he may have been turning a corner. His 3.94 ERA, while it was 17% better than league average, wasn’t exactly anything to write home about. That being said, his peripheral numbers suggested the former top prospect may have been in a much better place than previous years. He was striking out 23.5% of batters faced on the year and, most importantly, was showcasing much stronger control with a minuscule 2.9% walk rate that left him with an excellent 2.63 FIP. Unfortunately, Bubic’s season was cut short by surgery before he or the Royals could see how sustainable that improved control truly was.
The lefty began his rehab process this year once again in a starting role, but recently moved into the bullpen near the end of his rehab assignment. That likely offers a hint as to the role he’ll be used in now that he’s back in Kansas City, as the Royals figure to stick with a rotation consisting of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha, and Alec Marsh for the foreseeable future. While Bubic is seemingly poised to join the club in a multi-inning relief role, he’ll nonetheless look to carry over the strong results he achieved during his rehab assignment in Triple-A over to the majors. The lefty made nine appearances (five starts) at the highest level of the minors during his rehab, and pitched to a 2.63 with a 25.4% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate in 27 1/3 innings of work.
The season is saved!
Another arm they should have given up on. For such a great draft class they either suck at talent evaluation or tbey really have no clue how to develop pitching. Having Cal Elred try and teach them sure didnt help.
I’m not disagreeing with you on your points about the draft class & Eldred. But Bubic did have a 23% K rate to a 3% BB rate in his 294 pitches last season before his injury. He was significantly better compared to his prior years. If he can match those stats it will be welcomed to this pitching staff.
If…
IMO, Royals rushed him a bit early on. IE. jumped from lower minors to the bigs and quickly. Yes? Gotta be on an innings count. Controlled reset does him good.
294 PITCHES. three games is a tiny sample. question mark, and with five decently solid or better starters bubic can try his trade in long relief or risk seeing the door
There were 6 pitchers picked before him in 2018 by other teams who’ve never cracked a major league roster.
CYJ: I agree with you. The ’18-’19 draft picks got totally screwed out of an entire season of MILB development due to the Covid pandemic shutdown. Bubic is the youngest of the 4 pitchers that KC drafted in the top 40 picks in ’18. I could be wrong but I believe that he will be a solid #3-5 for the KC rotation next year. Despite his age, he’s got low mileage & hopefully he’ll be another T.J. success story. Fwiw, the ’20-21 drafts were skewed by the pandemic as well but differently.
Kris Bubic’s return to the Royals offers a chance to inject some promising metrics into the pitching staff. Prior to his injury in 2023, Bubic showed significant improvements across multiple key sabermetric indicators. In his three starts last season, Bubic posted a 3.94 ERA, which was 17% better than the league average (ERA+ of 117). However, it’s his peripheral stats that truly stand out.
Key Data Points for Kris Bubic Pre-Injury (2023):
Strikeout Rate (K%): 23.5%
Walk Rate (BB%): 2.9%
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): 2.63
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP): .300
Bubic’s 2.9% walk rate in 2023 was a dramatic improvement from his career 10.5% rate, indicating a newfound control that significantly enhanced his effectiveness. His FIP of 2.63, compared to a career FIP of 4.93, suggests he was pitching far better than his traditional ERA might indicate, driven by improved strikeout and walk rates. His BABIP of .300 aligns with league averages, suggesting his performance was not heavily influenced by luck.
During his rehab in Triple-A this year, Bubic continued to show strong metrics:
ERA: 2.63
Strikeout Rate (K%): 25.4%
Walk Rate (BB%): 8.8%
Innings Pitched: 27.1
These Triple-A stats reinforce the narrative of a pitcher who has refined his command and ability to miss bats, which should translate well to a multi-inning relief role.
In contrast, Colin Selby’s data paints a different picture. Despite a strong strikeout rate, his elevated walk rate has severely impacted his overall performance:
Triple-A Strikeout Rate (K%): 29.5%
Triple-A Walk Rate (BB%): 11.6%
Triple-A ERA: 5.32
MLB Walk Rate (BB%): 13.4%
MLB ERA: 9.00
MLB FIP: 4.80
Selby’s 11.6% walk rate in Triple-A and 13.4% in the MLB underscore a significant control issue, overshadowing his solid strikeout abilities. His ERA of 5.32 in Triple-A and 9.00 in the MLB reflect the impact of these free passes. His FIP of 4.80, although better than his ERA, still indicates struggles in effectively managing baserunners and limiting damage.
Summary:
Kris Bubic:
Pre-Injury (2023) FIP: 2.63
Triple-A Rehab ERA: 2.63
K%: 25.4%
BB%: 8.8%
Colin Selby:
Triple-A ERA: 5.32
MLB ERA: 9.00
Triple-A K%: 29.5%
Triple-A BB%: 11.6%
MLB K%: 23.6%
MLB BB%: 13.4%
These data points emphasize the stark contrast between Bubic’s potential and Selby’s ongoing struggles, highlighting why the Royals made their roster moves. Bubic’s return, supported by promising sabermetric indicators, could greatly benefit the Royals, while Selby’s DFA reflects the persistent issues that have hindered his effectiveness.
Good to see Bubic back but how disappointing for Pennington! Why call him up at all?