Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is having the least-productive season of his storied big league career, but the soon-to-be 37-year-old made clear to MLB.com’s John Denton that he has every intention of continuing his career in 2025. The seven-time All-Star was named the National League MVP as recently as 2022, but he’s seen a notable drop-off in virtually every offensive category in 2024 — to the point where he for the first time in his career has been a below-average hitter (99 wRC+, 96 OPS+).
On the season, Goldschmidt carries just a .244/.302/.410 batting line. He’s still popped 20 home runs, but his 27.2% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rates are the worst of his career. To his credit, Goldschmidt has righted the ship of late; over his past 150 plate appearances, he’s slashing a much-improved .295/.342/.532 (141 wRC+). He’s still not walking anywhere near his career 12.7% rate (6.3% during this hot streak), but he’s cut his strikeout rate (23.3%) to be closer to his career levels.
Goldschmidt made no excuses regarding his struggles this year, noting that even spite of solid batted-ball and running metrics via Statcast, “there’s no denying I haven’t played well.” The five-time Silver Slugger winner acknowledged that his struggles have “created some bad habits” with his swing that have been hard to break. Fans of both the Cardinals and Goldschmidt will want to check out the interview in full, as Goldschmidt offers candid reviews of a down season at the plate. Denton also spoke with manager Oli Marmol who said he “loves” Goldschmidt when asked about a potential reunion for the upcoming 2025 season.
Obviously, that won’t be Marmol’s call at the end of the day. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak originally acquired Goldschmidt from the D-backs (in exchange for Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andrew Young and a 2019 competitive balance draft pick the D-backs used to select Dominic Fletcher, whom they traded to acquire righty Cristian Mena this past offseason). The Cardinals quickly extended Goldschmidt on a five-year, $130MM contract, and he’s playing out the final season of what’s proven to be a good deal for the club at the moment.
The Cardinals reportedly have some interest in bringing Goldschmidt back, but there are in-house options to consider as well. Twenty-five-year-old Alec Burleson opened the season with two months of roughly average offense at the plate before catching fire in the summer. He’s now hitting .280/.320/.453 on the season overall. Burleson has primarily served as a corner outfielder and designated hitter in 2024, but he’s not a strong defender in the outfield. A move to first base could be of benefit, particularly if the Cardinals envision another shaky defender, Jordan Walker, as the team’s right fielder in future seasons.
There’s also 27-year-old Luken Baker to consider. While he’s older than the standard “prospect,” Baker bashed 33 home runs in just 84 Triple-A games in 2023 and has swatted another 32 big flies in 108 Triple-A games this season. He’s yet to hit in his tiny sample of 126 big league plate appearances (.202/.325/.356, 30.2% strikeout rate), but Baker’s Triple-A track record of hitting for power is intriguing. At the very least, his right-handed bat could pair with the lefty-swinging Burleson to form a platoon, with both players also seeing some time at designated hitter. Baker has decimated lefties this season, posting a 1.142 OPS and homering in 15 of his 150 plate appearances against them.
A Goldschmidt reunion would limit the playing time for both Burleson and Baker. It’d be understandable if the Cards’ front office wanted to take whatever resources would be put toward a Goldschmidt deal and reallocate them to pitching help. At the same time, if the Cards believe the late surge from Goldschmidt is a portent for a rebound in 2025, then re-signing him on a short-term deal has obvious appeal.
From a payroll vantage point, there’s a compelling case to use the resources elsewhere. The Cardinals’ payroll has landed within a couple million dollars of $180MM in each of the past two seasons ($183MM in 2024), and per RosterResource, they have about $111MM on next year’s books already. That doesn’t include decisions on the matching $12MM options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, nor does it include arbitration raises for Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, John King, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Andre Pallante and Nolan Gorman.
Even at a presumably reduced rate from his current $26MM annual salary, Goldschmidt would likely still push the Cardinals north of $150MM (assuming arb raises for the entire class and just one of those two rotation options being picked up) before addressing any other potential offensive upgrades or starting pitching additions. That money could arguably be better spent focusing on other areas and turning first base over to a combination of Burleson and Baker — or perhaps simply a lower-cost free agent option (e.g. Carlos Santana).
Goldschmidt’s future is one of several key decisions for the Cardinals as they look to put disappointing 2023-24 seasons behind them. Last year’s club went 71-91, finishing last place in the NL Central. At 69-69, they’ll finish better than that in 2024, but they’re 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with only 24 games to play, making a postseason berth overwhelmingly unlikely this season as well. That would be their first consecutive postseason misses since a three-year absence from playoff play in 2016-18 and mark just the third time since the turn of the century that St. Louis has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.
As well he should
He should.
Future HOF. Can’t really hurt his case now.
Goldschmidt says he wants to play another year. Suppose he does not.
Rank the careers of Goldschmidt, Helton and Votto including post-season successes. Are Goldie and Votto in or out of HOF?
“In or out of HOF”…I’m a traditionalist so for me when you have to ask, you’re not in. HOFERS, in my opinion are the guys everyone(almost) considers hofers. Guys like Griffey, Molina, Judge, Ohtani, Ichiro, Jeter, Kershaw etc… The analytics guys have already watered down the HOF enough.
I keep seeing you blaming the analytics guys for watering g down the Hall. But to me, as a small hall kind of guy, that happened before analytics took over. For example, Tony Perez? Just one example. Also, I’d really like to know who you feel are in the Hall strictly from an analytics perspective that otherwise don’t belong?
“Yadi is more deserving”..It’s not that close actually. One case really has no bearing on the other, but Yadi is a lock and Votto is a distinct “maybe”.
Joey Votto is severely lacking in the counting stats needed from a HOF first baseman and in my memory really has no signature postseason moments, unlike Yadi.
You cannot compare first basemen with that of catchers when discussing possible hall of fame players. It is best to compare players with those in the hall of the same position. Yadi will be in the hall some day.
The catching position is its own beast, and no one fully understands or is able to measure the attributes that make one great. How do you put a number to ‘calling a game’ for example? For that reason, unlike other positions where numbers can be used to compare players, I think reputation is a criteria that deserves to be weighed and incorporated.
Of course. not even close.
No chance you build a team with Votto over Molina. Molina’s impact in 120 games was way bigger than Votto drawing walks on a 4th place team.
He is a HOF. Catchers’ bodies deteriorate much faster than a normal position player. (Votto is also a HOF in my opinion, so there’s that.)
If Molina was a regular Pos. Player, he’ll probably have 60-70 WAR. (Not like anybody cares for WAR in the first place.)
Tony LaRussa would have picked Molina over Votto. He once said that Molina would play every day even if he never got another hit. Having him behind the plate really was that important.
Sn33 the winning front offices would agree with me. Part of the reason Votto didn’t win is because walking doesn’t help you win. That’s a fact you nor your analytical friends want to come to grips with.
Reason teams would take Molina over Votto is also because Molina could elevate a pitching staff, shut down the running game, and handling infield defensive positioning if he had to. Guys like Molina are hard to come by. Votto? We can find a 1B that comes close to his production, and not all walks are positive.
Molina isn’t Johnny Bench. Votto isn’t even Carlos Delgado, Will Clark, John Olerud or prime Don Mattingly. None in the Hall of Fame which is where Votto should end up but won’t. He’s a really good player in a pressure-free environment I suppose.
Absolutely
I feel like you’re laser focused on offense in your arguments. Both players are great, and both will get serious consideration for the HOF. I think if you asked the voters today, they’d *probably* give Molina a slightly better chance, because most understand the team went as Molina went. That doesn’t mean he’s “better” than Votto. They’re different. Both were great at what they did. But most who are close to the game do recognize that Molina brought something to the game that no other catcher of his era did, and few ever have.
We’re probably not that far apart, so no sense in making this into a huge deal, but the confidence in the statement of Molina not being the best player on his team goes back to the focus on offense. And that would be true. But as a player who gave his team the best chance to win games, he likely was the most important player on his team, with all respect to a couple of the HOFers he played with. They likely do both get in though, but for very different reasons, demonstrating the Hall has a place for multiple types of players. I would concur that neither is a sure fire first ballot guy though, but both could get in on the first and will likely get in on the first few. Usually depends on who else is on the ballot.
When a defensive team is willing to walk you, intentionally or unintentionally, yes they are not as valuable or will help you win. Votto didn’t win. That’s not irrefutable. We will never know how many games he cost the Reds by not swinging the bat. Molina was more dynamic at his position than Votto. Votto was not special.
I like to compare Goldschmidt to Freeman. Both are former MVP’s Freeman is the much better hitter with less power than Goldschmidt. But Goldschmidt is much better defensively.
“Much better defensively”..My eyes tell me both Freeman and Goldy are elite 1b defenders. Don’t forget, Freeman is an 8 time All Star, multi silver slugger winner along with a gold glove. I concede that Goldy is awfully good around the bag, but I don’t consider any 1b defender “much better” than F.F, who I do consider a likely Hofer. By all accounts both guys are solid citizens and teammates so no off-field stuff to consider.
Yeah Goldschmit is a better defender, but Freeman is no slouch. Much better isn’t accurate.
I don’t like comparing guys when it comes to the HOF. I take it case by case. I always thought that Helton was a HOFer ever since he retired. He passed the “feel test.” Same thing with Votto and Goldschmidt for me. Votto may not have the counting stats like 2700+ hits and 450+ homers but that’s because he only played 11.5 full seasons. He got called up late, he was injured a few years, and there was the covid season. He also was an on-base machine with his career over .400 OBP. So if you compare Votto or Goldschmidt to Lou Gehrig, those two pale in comparison. But if you look at them individually, they’re Hall of Famers.
Post-season success does not matter. I only care about individual performance.
“Postseason success does not matter”…As a traditionalist I do beg to differ. The postseason is the most important part of the season so wouldn’t it “matter”?..Most of my life I’ve considered postseason accolades very important if not mandatory for Hofers.
For me, an out-of-position Derek Jeter became a HOFER(along with numerous other accomplishments)the second he flipped the ball to Jorge Posada at home plate to nab Jeremy Giambi in the postseason.
So apparently guys like Gene Tenace (Could be a HOF), Nelson Cruz, David Freese, Adolis Garcia, and Al Weis deserve to be in the HOF?
Interesting reasoning right there.
(P.S. Jeremy Giambi failed to slide. If Giambi did, then the Jeter flip throw would never have happened.)
Need to have regular season numbers. MLB Fan didn’t say it was just postseason.
What I’m reasoning to him. Not just regular season numbers, but also longevity and some character.
Individual contribution to team postseason success certainly is a factor to consider. How much to weigh it? That’s certainly an individual decision, but I wouldn’t say it doesn’t matter.
Post season success is a plus to the regular season success for HOF consideration. There is no negative to lack of post season success in my opinion.
“Guys like Gene Tenace, Nelson Cruz”…I wrote “along with his numerous other accomplishments”. I wasn’t aware Nelson Cruz had 3000+ hits, 500 homeruns or any other HOF-worthy accomplishments, even though he spent most of his career on the “juice”.
I think Goldie is in. Going to be on the ballet for a few years before he’s enshrined, but 7 All-Star appearances, 5 Silver Sluggers, 4 Gold Gloves and an MVP is a pretty solid track record.
As for Votto, he is a six time All-Star with an MVP and a Gold Glove. His accomplishments don’t quite lineup with Goldie, and Cincy put out a lot of average to below average teams during Votto’s years there. Goldie’s playoff track record is also much better than Votto’s.
I do believe Votto will eventually get in, but it may come via the veterans committee vs. the 75%+ vote.
“I think Goldie is in”…I think you just convinced me that “Goldie is in”. I did not know that Goldy had 5 Silver Sluggers(I thought he had 1 maybe 2). Goldy’s always been a favorite player of mine, but normally I try not to let sentiment get in the way.
I was surprised at the amount iof SS’s as well. Once the question was posed, I had to check out his stats/awards as I was on the fence too.
I think he needs 1 more big season or 2 to 3 average series to get the totals up. Think right not he is border line so a little more padding won’t hurt.
He should go somewhere where a designated hitter position is available
As he should. Even though it’s not a good season by his standards, it’s still productive numbers.
What’s the old saying, “if you love someone, let them go”?
I love Goldy.
I doubt anyone will sign Goldschmidt if QO is attached to him. Maybe in May when QO become meaningless. That means the Cardinals will be paying him $22 million next year. Does the Cardinals really want to pay him that much for aging 1B when they have other options that are much cheaper?
Goldschmidt isn’t getting a QO. He would jump on the offer if the Cardinals were stupid enough to offer it. He’s not worth half that this year.
No way he gets $22 million. I think a one year base salary of $10 million with incentives that could take him to $18 million is more like it.
And if they come back … let them go again …. As no one else wanted them !
I think offering him the QO is the way to go here. A one year contract at 22m, or a compensation pick if he turns it down. A Win win in my opinion. I’m also not completely opposed to seeing them platoon burly and baker.
“Is the way to go here”…It certainly is if the goal is replicating this season’s results. At some point the St. Louis Cardinals have to decide if they’re running a Major League baseball team or a never ending, sentimental “bring back the band” reunion tour. It’s just one man’s opinion so don’t hate me St. Louis fans.
Why would STL pay him $22 mill when Santana has played for $5.5 mill the past 2 years coming off slightly better seasons? Anything over,say, $10 mill would be spending way too much on the feel good story of playing his last year in STL.
Yeah I was thinking 6 to 8 million somewhere in that range. Certainly not 20.
No one will have to pay him near the QO level salary for ’25. Maybe 10mil w/incentives. Old righty 1B don’t have a ton of market value regardless of being excellent in the past.
Always better to let a player go too early rather than too late. We love Goldy, but there are priority areas to fill.
If anyone in the Cardinals organization has faith in Luken Baker, they should give him to opportunity to play regularly in the big leagues.
His story sounds like that of Mark Vientos, the “kid” who after two mediocre short stints in the major leagues finally was allowed to adjust (which he did) to big league pitching when getting regular playing time with the Mets this year.
I remember Mike Schmidt coming up to the big leagues, and full of power and brimstone, and lit took him over a year to adjust to big league pitching before his career took off.
I also remember Roger Freed who had a similar beginning profile at the start of his career.
So let the Cardinals development office decide if Baker is Vientos or Freed.if the former, give Goldschmidt his gold watch and let him go.
I like how they called a 27 year old prospect “old” in an article about a 37 year old player who is hitting .244/.302/.410
Goldy being 37 doesn’t change the fact that 27 is very old for a “prospect” and his chances of breaking through in his age 28 season would put him in exceptionally rare territory. Not impossible, but usually players like this end up with a tweener label.
Even with a career like his, I imagine he’d have to take a significant paycut. This year has not been kind to first basemen. The fact that Belt never got signed is still crazy
The money it would take to keep would be better used to add an ace to their weak rotation. Burleson and Baker should be able to handle 1B.
If he’s going to command the type of money that an ace would get they should definitely let him walk.
I don’t think they can afford another ace, but I agree that putting the money back into the pitching staff and using those internal options at 1B is the right thing to do.
Technically, they have already done that, since the $25M they won’t be paying Goldy next year is how much of a raise they’re giving Sonny Gray next year (from $10M to $35M).
Please come back in Arizona!
Are you already giving up on resigning Christian Walker? I can see how that would be very difficult to do, but it seems odd to want to immediately pivot to a declining 37-year-old purely out of nostalgia.
Meant to say “come back to Arizona.” And no, definitely think the D-Backs will make every effort to re-sign Walker and hope they do, but realistically, Walker might be out of the D-Backs range, unfortunately for Arizona, but fortunately for Walker who has earned his way to getting a nice contract after the past few seasons. Goldy would be a great DH/1st base backup to Walker if they got Walker back.
Goldschmidt will be looking for a full time 1b job.
Houston?
Arizona will have to spend maybe 5 years $125 million to resign Christian Walker. They should do it.
Diamondbacks could maybe sign Josh Bell to one year at $10 million plus incentives. I think Goldie at this point would get just a little more than Bell. Both have an OPS+ of 96 this year. Even at five years older, Goldie is the better fielder.
I think if he doesn’t come back to St Louis he goes to Arizona.
I think it would be great if he came back but there could be some bad blood between Goldy and the dbacks FO from when he got traded seemingly out of nowhere (then dbacks splurged on MadBum next offseason…) but that’s just pure speculation. I think he would be a great fit in HOU on a short term deal, Texas state univ alum as well
Yeah Houston does make sense for sure
At least to any team he will be a whole lot cheaper than STL paid for him
Could see him in SD in 2025 on a 1 year contract if not too expensive.
Those numbers really aren’t bad for a 36-year-old hitter, especially since they’ve been gradually climbing upward since he season low point on May 11th. By the end of the season, he should be an above-average hitter with a wRC+ around 105 or so. The numbers only seem bad due to his horrific slump to start the season and due to him being a future Hall of Famer who won MVP just two years ago.
Still, the Cardinals would be best off letting Goldy walk in free agency and moving Burleson to 1B. They really don’t have the money available to both resign a declining Goldschmidt and properly upgrade the roster elsewhere, especially if they actually need to drop payroll a little due to their lower than usual attendance.
Bringing Goldschmidt back isn’t the problem it’s the money. 6 to 8 million is fair and that won’t hurt the rest of the team. If he wants 15 then forget it.
He should look for somewhere else maybe a team with more playoff hopes.
I’m a huge fan of Goldschmidt but no way are you gonna pay him anything more than $10 mil for next year if you bring him back. I guess if he goes crazy final month and you’re convinced he found his swing again could bump up few thousand . Too many options other than him.
Goldy possibly would like to go to a team with a better chance of getting to World Series too
Looking around the league, many teams have holes at 1B. Goldschmidt still has 20+ HR power, plays good 1B defense, and is sneaky good on the bases.
That said, even if the Cards could get him on a cheap, incentive-laden deal, I’ve advocated for a Baker-Burleson platoon for 2025. They’re inexpensive, and the risk that both should perform poorly is less than paying Goldschmidt many times their combined salary.
I would love to bring Goldschmidt back for his HoF potential. But his best years overall were in Arizona, he’s likely to perform worse next year than his poor season this year, and he never had sustained postseason success in StL. I would thank him for his great career with the Cards and wish him well.
I suspect another team would pay Goldy a decent one-year deal in 2025 to start at 1B. Then again, most figured that about Brandon Belt this year.
Should they extend Goldy? No chance. Will they do it anyway? Of course they will. They lead the league in unnecessary loyalty extensions based on past performance.
That and horrible prospect development has the organization on the downward spiral. Major overhaul is needed. Mozeliak needs to go and take his lackies with him.
The Cardinals should have traded him at the deadline in 2023 and tried to salvage something by trading him at the deadline this year They also should have placed him on waivers after the deadline. He still has value and can still crush LHP, but not even close to 20 million. Maybe the Yanks give him a deal or he goes back to AZ, but no way should STL enter the bidding. Who knows, maybe he has no desire to remain in STL anyway and after the train wreck of the past few years, can’t blame him
Yes, Goldy’s counting stats are low, but we also have to remember the pandemic season in judging this generation of players. Goldschmidt probably missed out on 100 more hits and probably 20-30 more homers just from the 2020 season that wasn’t. The difference between 2035 hits and 2135 hits may not seem like much, but it is basically the difference between Mike Piazza and Tony Phillips or Duke Snider and Lee May. All 4 great players, but 2 were Hall of Famers and two are not.
5.5 games out from the wild card spot and mlbtr suggests to throw in the towel? Jerry resindorf running this site ? White flag trade? Wasn’t the point of the wild card to bring seminal excitement for a playoff chance when Winning the division is out of reach. Win 6 games, teams ahead lose 6 games. Colorado went on a 21-1 run one year to make it.
This article in no way suggested what you are saying.
yes it does
“but they’re 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with only 24 games to play, making a postseason berth overwhelmingly unlikely this season as well”
It does not say to give up the season like you suggested. “Making a postseason Perth overwhelmingly unlikely this season as well” does not equal to suggesting them to throw in the towel. It is simply a statement of the current situation. Nothing more.
Im reading as unlikely to go on any win streak, even at 5 1/2 out. Im not a cards fan, but they are far from eliminated. Stranger things have happened. 1969 :The Cubs ultimately lost 17 of the last 25 games of the season, while the Mets went 23–7 to overtake the Cubs.
Why even have a wild card or extra playoffs slots if the writers are going to be so negative 5 1/2 out 24 games to play.
Age and pitchers are pitching to his weaknesses so he’s cooked. Probably gets picked up by some desperate team only to find out he’s cooked.
Why wouldn’t he? Today’s players make much more in one year than many people make in 50 or more years of working. He will play for someone if he wants to.
I’m gonna have to check out the interview. I don’t think I’ve ever heard the man speak in all the years he’s been in St Louis.
I could see the Rangers snagging him.
Goldy will have a bounce back season. Even if that happens, I don’t think it should be with the Cards. Doubt they’ll spend the savings in a meaningful way though.
Now that Goldschmidt has announced his desire to play in 2025, there are additional questions. First, does Goldy want to remain with the Cardinals? If he does, does Chaim Bloom recommend to Mozeliak to negotiate a new contract with Goldy? Or does Bloom recommend to Mozeliak to let Goldy go? Or will Bloom make whatever the decision is himself? Going to be an interesting off-season for the Cardinals.
Obv. Goldschmidt wants to play full-time in ’25 but do the Cards want him for that? We can be certain that there will be no Q.O. for him.
Goldy will not be playing if he expects 10+M a year going forward.
I would suspect they don’t give him the QO, but try to re-sign him in FA. Honestly, if you look around the league at what other guys get with similar WAR and/or OPS, it’s not a stretch to give a guy like him $10-12 mil on a one-year deal with a mutual option. I know that seems absurd to some people based on the emotion of the numbers decline, but it’s probably realistic. What that basically does is balance out the Sonny Gray salary increase and leave you with a 20-25 HR, 25-30 2B, great clubhouse 1B who is constantly mentoring and teaching the up and comers for one more year. They can let him walk after that if he continues the slide. Not the worst thing in the world, and that 10-12 mil isn’t going to block them from a major pitching upgrade. They aren’t going to go out and get an ace. Let’s be real about that. And Baker is at the very best projection a 28-year-old Nolan Gorman at 1B next year, and I think that’s generous, so I’m not chomping at the bit to get him regular ABs.
I Think at least half of the Teams in baseball would consider him for the right amount of money. His bad year is still better than many players. He has to take aa 50 percent cut in Salary! Not a superstar anymore. Sad but true!
I haven’t watched any cards games so I don’t know how Goldy is actually playing. What I will say is that just like with my blue jays, the cards are playing below what was expected this year. When that happens opposing pitchers only have 1 or 2 guys in a lineup they need to avoid as opposed to the dodgers let’s say where 1-5 or 6 is deadly and pitchers have no choice but to pitch to and thru amazing guys. This aswell as pushing for hits you normally would not knowing you are having a down year is likely what Goldy is dealing with. I realize the guy is 37/38 next year but I don’t see a reason a team won’t bring him in on a 1 year deal with a decent AAV
If he plays another 2/3 years he might make it to the Hall. Certainly a B Level HOFer. But the stats say he might be in there.
Many “want” to play another year, but the teams have other plans that don’t include you.
@sn33 a St Louis writer did a deep dive and discovered that pitchers had on average an ERA 1.0 lower when pitching to Molina than any other catcher they had thrown to. La Russa wasn’t exaggerating. He wasn’t known for saying things he didn’t believe. Molina watched thousands of hours of video on opposing hitters to know what to call and when to call it. I think you underestimate the value of a great defensive catcher who knows opposing hitters and his pitchers.
He should just retire. He’s made more $$ than the average working stiff. It’s time to let one of the younger dudes get their chance, and play the game to the highest of their abilities….and not block them.
Give him a HOF jacket…he’s got nothing more to accomplish
As long as it’s not for the Cardinals. It’s time for a soft reboot in St. Louis and you can’t just keep bringing back aging useless players for nostalgia. I’ve lived in the St. Louis area for my entire life and i will say they have some of the best fans in the game. With that being said, they also have some of most gullible fans in the league as well. This nostalgia act the last few years has been a joke with Matt Carpenter coming back and re-signing Adam Wainwright for his last season even though we all knew he wasn’t going to productive. Ownership sees and knows this but as long as the St. Louis fans get all teary eyed over players coming back to ride off into the sunset, the team will stick to being mediocre and make money.
As a Cardinals fan I was first upset that commentators were suggesting that Molina is not a lock for the HOF. After some research on baseball ref, I see the argument. The offensive counting stats are weaker than other HOF catchers, I mean Posada didn’t make it past the first vote. It will be interesting to see how the HOF voters weigh Molinas defense. The argument that he wasn’t the best player on his team is pretty tough when trying to best Albert Pujols in his prime is a pretty high bar to set. Lastly, Votto vs Molina??? Really not a bad option either way. I would highly doubt the vote would be 100% one way or the other. I do know few teams could pencil in their starting catcher for 19 years running.
Unfortunately Yadi did a lot of things for the team that aren’t measured with statistics. It remains to be seen if the voters recognize that and vote accordingly, or just look at the stats.