Daulton Varsho will undergo surgery to repair a rotator cuff injury in his right shoulder, he tells Hazel Mae (X link). Toronto manager John Schneider told the Toronto beat (relayed on X by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) that the Jays will have a clearer timeline once Varsho completes the procedure. Schneier didn’t rule out the possibility that the rehab process carries into next year’s Spring Training.
That brings an early end to the outfielder’s second year in Toronto. Varsho hit .214/.293/.407 with 18 homers, 21 doubles and seven triples through 513 plate appearances. That’s league average offensive production, by measure of wRC+, with Varsho’s power helping to offset the poor on-base mark. It’s a better year than he had in 2023, when he hit .220/.285/.389 despite offense being higher around the league than it has been this season.
Varsho may not recapture the 27-homer form that he showed during his final season with the Diamondbacks. He can still be a very productive player even with league average offense. The former catcher has developed into one of the game’s premier defensive outfielders. Varsho had fantastic marks for his 672 innings of center field work and his 400+ frames in left field. Statcast has him tied for second among outfielders (behind Washington’s Jacob Young) in Outs Above Average. Defensive Runs Saved credited Varsho with an incredible 28 runs above average — not only the best in MLB but five runs clear of second-place Jarren Duran.
Those defensive metrics should earn Varsho his first Gold Glove. He’ll go into next season as Toronto’s everyday center fielder if he’s healthy. Any kind of offseason setback could put that in doubt, but for now, there’s no indication the Jays will need to look outside the organization for center field help.
Nathan Lukes, who has taken over in center, looks like a solid fourth outfielder. He’d be an option to pick up some early-season starts if Varsho falls behind schedule. George Springer has plenty of center field experience but he has only played one game there this season. As he enters his age-35 season, Springer seems firmly committed to right field.
Varsho is under team control for another two seasons. He made $5.65MM in his second of four years of arbitration. He’ll likely land somewhere in the $8-10MM range next year.
I bet they’re wishing they had Gabby Moreno back.
They’ve been so flush with catchers, it seems. But Moreno looks like a potential perennial all star.
Going with Kirk and Jansen instead of Moreno is a classic blue jays move, who would’ve thought that Kirk would get worse he obviously looks like he takes care of his body
5’8” 245 is obese
If that’s true what’s his 5’5 and 275 frame mean
5’8” 245 is obese
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That’s like my height and 60 pounds heavier, and I ain’t skinny.
I wonder why some of these players don’t try Ozympic.
Ozympic doesn’t discriminate on what you’re losing.meaning your losing a lot of muscle weight along with fat. Pro athletes wouldn’t be advised to take it in my none expert and armchair opinion
They have 1 catcher now, who is fine….maybe. Average at best. No backup.
Why? Varsho has 8.8 War over the last two years to Moreno’s 6.5 War. It’s a good trade . Leave it alone.
It’s a good trade . Leave it alone.
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I say this every time these articles pop up. The BJs had three catchers that could all start. The year Moreno was traded, Kirk had a 4.0 bWAR and Jansen had a 2.9. Trading one of their catchers was a necessity, and Varsho is a fine player.
If I had a quibble with the trade, they should’ve tried to keep Gurriel, and played Varsho in CF and Springer in RF. That would’ve been a perfect alignment.
Bullred, I don’t know if comparing one metric to evaluate the trade is a great methodology. It looks like you are using bWAR, whereas fWAR has it a much slimmer difference (5.4 to 4.6). And if you include the Gurriel component (3.0 bWAR, 1.9 fWAR in the year of control traded for not including the extension), it flips the WAR leader in the trade. I personally prefer Statcast’s run values to either measure of WAR and that comes out to 11 total run value for Varsho, 17 for Moreno, and 4 for Gurriel (again only Gurriel’s ‘23) over the past two years so nearly double for Arizona. And that’s only regular season value.
On top of that is that the Jays got 4 arb years of Varsho that as the article says will escalate to the $8-$10m range next year if he’s tendered, while Moreno will still be in his third pre arb year. Toronto got 4 arb years to Arizona’s 3 pre arb, 3 arb, and one cost controlled year of Gurriel’s pre debut contract. So the value proposition seems to lie heavily in Arizona’s favour.
That doesn’t necessarily matter if both teams got what they wanted. I don’t think the Jays necessarily did. I think they saw a breakout candidate. I know some public projection systems did. ZiPS thought Varsho was going to be one of the best hitters in the league. So from that perspective, maybe that trade was worth the risk. But I could never understand why the math added up to that. He’s been a poor quality of contact player his whole career. What the projections saw that thought that trend was going to change, I’m not sure. On that note, he’s had roughly league average surface results this year, but he has the worst xwOBA of any qualified hitter. And the highest wOBA – xwOBA too. So that’s a tough ask to sustain. He has cut his swing rate down but it’s still a league average rate that doesn’t seem particularly discerning to have optimum spray direction to overcome the terrible contact the way guys like Paredes do. In fact, Paredes who is the poster boy for outdoing the expected is only outdoing his xwOBA by half as much as Varsho.
To me, it’s not even about any of the above. They have Varsho and Kirk through ‘26 as the team has been on the decline and the forecast doesn’t really see a full turnaround by then. It would have been easier to see Moreno on the next good Blue Jay team and he and Gurriel would have contributed fine to last year’s team that was still a fringe competitive team. Jansen is gone, Kirk and Varsho will be after ‘26 if not sooner. It sounds like complaining, but I’m just trying to look at all the reasons the trade might have been made and if it achieved the goals for each team.
Moreno and Varsho are almost the same player, minus a swap of contact and power but sums to both pretty average bat with fantastic D
Does that equate to the same player though? A league average bat is the standard for an OF whereas it’s an excellent outcome for a C. And even if defensive metrics can’t quite measure it, C defence is much more important. Even if they do equate to the same player by measures like WAR, the supply and demand side tells me if you wanted an excellent defensive catcher who can hit at a league average rate, it’s not really easily available. Whereas excellent defensive OF who hit at a league average rate tend to be in the price range Varsho is set to make in arbitration this year and are more often available.
That’s only one side of the coin tho,
By contrast you can pretty easily find good defensive catchers that can’t hit. Where as Varsho’s defensive value is really difficult to find, which is why there are so many awful outfielders
It’s why on a per game basis they are pretty near equivalent in terms of value.
Thoughts and prayers for a speedy recovery, VARSHO.
Should’ve kept Moreno and Gurriel Jr. Varsho might be a good fielder but he can’t hit worth a damn.
Varsho is a decent player, but I question the wisdom of trading for a GG-caliber OF only to play him in LF. It is like playing a GG-caliber 3B and playing him at 1st. It just isn’t the best use of a glove.
While I understand trading for a gold glove caliber center fielder with some pop, what I don’t understand is why the Jays office decided Kirk would be their catcher going forward. Moreno looks to be a better defensive catcher and defense and mobility are crucial for a catcher.
Kirk is one of the best receivers in the game, he doesn’t have the pop time and arm of Moreno to control the running game but he’s still an above average defensive catcher
I’m not sure they decided that. I think other teams decided that for them when they were patient (passive maybe) in making a move. They tend to hold tight to their valuations and are comfortable with the idea that there are always alternatives. They did discuss all their catchers with a bunch of teams. But then the Cardinals just moved on and signed Contreras and the Brewers jumped in on the Murphy to Atlanta deal and the Jays were kind of left with one dance partner later in the offseason.
The Dbacks likely would not have taken Kirk.
They most certainly would not have.
@JoeBrady
As a Jays fan and knowing very little about the Dbacks, I can confidently say they wouldn’t have taken Kirk.
People keep harping on the Moreno trade but that isn’t the reason the Jays are in last place. Their biggest mistake was signing Springer. If they kept Teoscar instead they would be in much better shape.
Keep in mind that we had to overpay players to sign here. Only recently have we become a “desired” spot to play. Their mistake was eradicating all leadership and replacing them with nobody. They didn’t get a player to protect Vladdys bat and the whole defense first approach backfired because our offense was lifeless. One run games takes a toll on a team. They have to be tough as nails. A young team with an inexperienced coach isn’t mentally tough enough to handle that pressure. It’s Soto or bust. Bregman would be a great consolation prize. Atkins being fired would be the Cherry on top.
With all the love for Varsho, what would a return look like if Varsho were to be traded this offseason?
Jays plan to contend and seriously need hitting and bullpen help. Loperfido at under 800K with a RH hitting platoon can cover CF if the Jays get a very productive LF and 3B bat(s). The bullpen needs about 3 arms. Varsho is the one guy that can get you a return. His bat can easily be replaced.
I don’t think a lot. At $8-$10m and already with fringy arm strength (part of the decision to play him in LF if Kiermaier was in the lineup) and recovering from shoulder surgery that may not have him ready for spring training seems like a tough guy to move for a ton of value. But like you said, maybe you get a reliever who doesn’t earn much and repurpose his money kind of like the Teo trade. I feel like shoulder surgery for an OF who has so much of his value tied to his defense is a tough sell on the trade market though.
I agree for the most part. I think Varsho is what he is as a hitter. Despite his WAR, he is very replaceable. I believe the Jays will not entertain the idea of trading Varsho but they should.
Baseball is flush with cash. A Varsho , basically below average hitter with a glove. Will make close to ten mill.
I know it’s different comparison, but boggles that a hockey hofer , a mount Rushmore type only makes 8.7 lol
More games per season and larger stadium capacity, along with a larger fan base and tv contracts, of course make baseball more cash happy. Solid defensive center fielders who can hit at all, are in scarce supply. Maybe they chose the wrong sport.
I understand the economics. Just find it interesting. Btw Varsho is not a good hitter
Yes choosing the sport … esp in USA hopefully many will follow baseball due the cash.
Having said that sometimes you don’t really choose , as a young athlete , body type etc plays a role. Basketball , Football etc.
Environment too.