This week's mailbag addresses a potential Mike Trout trade, valuing Luis Arraez, how the White Sox and Cubs move forward, what an Elly De La Cruz extension might look like, Brett Baty's future, MLB's popularity, and much more.
Fred asks:
With the ever increasing annual salaries MLB stars are receiving, $36M just isn't what it used to be. Assuming he is amenable to a trade, is this the offseason someone (here's looking at you, Dave Dombrowski) takes a chance on Mike Trout's still tremendous upside? His salary could be offset with a bad contract or two (hello Taijuan Walker). He is far less expensive than Juan Soto will be.
$36MM is still a very large salary in MLB, currently tied for seventh all-time. The actual CBT hit for a new team on Trout's remaining six years and $212.7MM would be similar at $35.45MM.
As an aside, four players signed contracts with $35-36MM AAVs in 2019: Trout, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Anthony Rendon. Five years later, only five players have managed to push into the $40MM realm, moving the needle modestly in this regard.
Trout said before the season that asking for a trade would be the "easy way out," but he also didn't rule out a future change of heart. The Angels are on pace to lose about 95 games this year, they haven't been to the postseason since 2014, and there's little reason to expect the team to be good next year. Despite his longstanding loyalty, it's plausible Trout could change his mind at some point.
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Mike Trout amassed that 135 wRC+ in spite of missing as many games as he did. The health and injury risk is definitely there, but I would argue that the superstar upside still exists. He doesn’t need to stay in CF; a corner outfield spot would be less defensively stressful and allow him to stay away from 1B or DH. A return to Philly would likely yield a marketing bonanza that could offset much of the CBT hit.
I wonder what a trout trade would look like…
But there’s no way Moreno would send him anywhere
I don’t think you understand how wRC+ works. wRC+ is not a running total. Doesn’t matter if you have 4 at bats and get 1 hit, or 12,000 at bats with a 3000 hits, your average is still .250. You’re not “amassing” a .250 batting average, just like you don’t “amass” wRC+. Simply put, Trout hasn’t been able to stay on the field since they started testing for HGH, and nobody will take on that contract. It’s literally, not even arguably, the worst contract in sports.
Giancarlo Stanton and Kris Bryant and Javier Baez would like to have a word about worst contract…
With the Met’s Mark Vientos rapid ascension, the future of 3bman Brett Baty is probably with another team.
The injury risk is so high with Trout and the salary is too. I can’t imagine Arte trades a first ballot HOF’er and eats a ton of cash. & He’d have to do that to get a decent return.
I wouldn’t make many more changes to baseball anytime soon, besides implementing a robo ump for calling balls and strikes and maybe going back to a 154 game regular season.
It’s pointless to try to make baseball more like the NFL or NBA in terms of action. MLB offers a different kind of experience. Celebrate that instead of trying to force fit it into being something else.
Trade Elly while he’s worth the most. Reds aren’t going to win next year. They need more hitting. McClain will probably need the first half next year to get the feel back. E-Strand isn’t a reliable for average hitter.
If you can get 2 or 3 MLB ready quality bats, and a couple of high A standouts. Might as well get them now. Reds can’t afford to pay Elly until they’re consistent winners for an extended period. And if they do pay him what he expects, they’re not paying a co-starring cast.
Collier probably won’t be ready for his best, for 2 to 3 years.
The Wake Forest duo will be prime in 2 or 3, and if you get Ashcroft, Abbott and Lodolo in the shape of dudes in their 20’s, not 40’s 2026 and the 3 or 4 years after could be fun for Reds fans again.
Unpopular I know, but one guy is easy to pitch around.
trade a superstar in the making for some prospects that might not pan out…. do you by chance work in the marlins front office?
ChasingTime
Trade Elly while he’s worth the most. Reds … need more hitting.
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You want to trade a good-hitting SS because you need more hitting?
200 + strike outs….more errors than highlights. Show boat causing other players to make errors by running up to them and sticking his glove in the air…. Yeah, by the time he becomes a “super star”, he’ll be one for a team that can pay him. The Reds will get nothing but a longshot draft pick.
How many clutch RBI did he have this year to win games? About the same as Fairchild.
Good hitting? Sure
De La Cruz is controllable through the 2029 season, if Bob Castellini can’t find a way to build a team around him between now and then – then he doesn’t deserve to own a ballclub. If the Reds moved him, season ticket holders should be less than 5K.
You don’t watch him play do you? Complaining about his defense and strikeouts, shows your lack of understanding.. Metrics show his defense is amongst the best, even with the errors. Between his speed, walks, and production, his strikeout rate (which is dropping), is insignificant. Trading him certainly would show poor ownership. Reds fans can hope that he stays, but for now we can enjoy watching one of the best players in baseball.
Yeah, I don’t need a computer to tell me what I see. If it weren’t for BS scoring, calling balls hit right at him, that he side steps for errors, hits..his “metrics” would be more realistic for you folks that can’t judge a game without a computer telling you what to believe.
Besides puddin. the question was about paying him….the Reds can’t/won’t, and if you’re not going to pay him at his best, you might as well get the most you can for him, while he’s a hot commodity. There’s no guarantee he won’t blow out both knees and lose his speed this off season. There’s no need for a team like the Reds to pay one guy 500 million, and the rest of the team league minimum.
Trading Trout makes a lot of sense for the Angels assuming it jumpstarts a proper rebuild…which they dont do. Not sure a team will be willing to give up the prospects required though given injury history.
As far as the Cardinals are concerned, with the Bally’s deal still in limbo, downturn in attendance, and what has to be a downward early purchase for 2025 season tickets, I can’t see the Cardinals making any significant dollar FA additions. I can’t imagine them wading in the Christian Walker or Teoscar Hernandez waters.
I think there is a good chance that Goldschmidt walks, Lynn and Gibson both get bought out, and maybe attaching sweeteners to unload Mikolas and/or Matz. The only FA signing that I could see is a return with Andrew Kittredge.
My bet would be that all of those losses with be filled internally, with maybe a few bullpen arms being looked at as buy-low candidates. Although, I wouldn’t rule out a trade or two bringing back some cost-controlled pieces.
With all that being said, if Burleson plays exclusively at 1B next year, with Baker working in, creating a more clear path for playing time in the OF for Nootbaar, Walker, Siani, and Scott, and having a more defined rotation with Gray, Fedde, Pallante, Mikolas/Matz, and a kid or two, the team will probably be right around .500 again and they saved $50-$75 million.
Too many years left on Trout’s contract to take a chance. 3 years might be an interesting gamble, but 6?
But just for funnsies, Trout for Yoshida. The RS pick up an additional $167M, but need a righty slugger, and playing DH might extend his health and his career.
Great call!!!
In a dream, two years ago, I asked Mike trout how he liked boston.
He didn’t answer and had a funny look on his face.
If Mike wants out, arte would let him go.
If I were trout, I would stay one more year.
I dreamnt on 2-27-2024 “remember the titans”
I took this to mean, that Washington has united the team, and they will win the World Series in 2025
Remember the 02 angels
213 games missed in two seasons would give any GM the jitters. Maybe if the Angels ate 60-65% of Trout’s salary and the Phillies (or whoever) limited Trout’s time in the outfield and had him DH three times a week. Also, whoever got Mike should probably ‘plan’ on only having him for 120 games. And that’s undoubtedly positive thinking.
White Sox better do something big this offseason, I think you could get todays walkup in a small bus.
Trout will be on the Phillies or Yankees next year. If there’s a way to bet on it, do it.
He won’t be going anywhere after they win it all in 2025
It’s already been decided
Big news story, hof er Mike trout won his first playoff game and World Series.