Longtime Nippon Professional Baseball star Tomoyuki Sugano is planning to sign with an MLB team this offseason, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. After 12 years in NPB, Sugano more than meets the requirements (nine years of NPB service) to qualify for international free agency, so he will not be subject to the rules of the posting system.
Sugano, soon to be 35, is an eight-time NPB All-Star, two-time Central League MVP, and two-time winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award, given out annually to the best starting pitcher in NPB. After collecting his second MVP trophy in 2020, he was posted for MLB clubs and drew interest from several teams, including the Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, and Rangers. However, he did not sign before the deadline, choosing instead to re-up with the Yomiuri Giants on a four-year, $40MM deal. His contract gave him the option to opt out after every season to pursue international opportunities, and following the first year of the deal, he he had enough NPB service time that he would not have been restricted by the posting system. Nevertheless, he decided to stay with the Giants throughout the length of the contract.
One reason Sugano may have decided not to pursue international free agency after the 2021, ’22, or ’23 seasons was his declining performance. He was outstanding in 2020, pitching to a 1.97 ERA with a 24.6% strikeout rate over 137.1 innings. However, he had ERAs of 3.19, 3.12, and 3.36 the following three years. His strikeout rates slowly declined, while his home run rates shot up. Moreover, injuries limited him to just 77.2 IP in 2023. His performance from 2021-23 wasn’t poor by any means, but it’s understandable why he chose not to sacrifice his guaranteed salary.
The 2024 season marked a return to dominance for the Sugano. Over 156.2 IP, he went 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA. His 18.3% strikeout rate was lower than it was at his peak – he struck out 24.2% of batters from 2016-20 – but he is finding success in new ways as an older pitcher. His 2.6% walk rate in 2024 was a career-best. His 6.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio was his best since 2016. In addition, he gave up only six home runs to the 608 batters he faced, 0.99% home run rate. That’s the lowest home run rate of his career, and significantly lower than his 2.91% home run rate from 2021-23. As a cherry on top, Sugano also threw three complete games this past season. He hadn’t thrown a single complete game since 2021.
Now that the four-year contract he signed during the 2020-21 offseason is up, Sugano has little reason not to give an MLB career another try. According to reporter Francys Romero, the veteran has hired VC Sports Group to represent him in free agency. The starting pitching market will feature plenty of big names this offseason, including Corbin Burnes, Yusei Kikuchi, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and likely Blake Snell, who has a player option for 2025. Considering his age, Sugano won’t be looking for a long-term contract, so he could represent an interesting alternative for a team that wants to add a potential top-flight starting pitcher on a shorter deal.
It will be interesting to see of any MLB team is willing to take a flier on a 35 year old starter from Japan.
The Dodgers will give him $500M for 4 years.
Okay, we’ll book that for you. How much?
That’s not fair, Zim.
You forgot to mention they’ll defer it until 2055.
sorry you misspelled 2065
then the no balls commissioner will allow them to defer it all but one dollar till the year 3000 because it’s the dodgers
That would be more on the Player’s Union than the Commissioner. I hate Manfred but lets at least put the blame where it’s due.
Maybe the Commissioner has no balls, but he seems pretty good at avoiding strikes, too
It’s hilarious you’re still mad about that and you probably want a salary cap. Guess what happens in salary caps the good players sign team friendly deals to play on contenders like the dodgers. You people live in this fantasy world where every team will win the same amount of games and a different team will win every year keeping all the fan bases equally engaged.
cmjustice85
then the no balls commissioner will allow them to defer it
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When did the commissioner get the power to allow and disallow contracts?
I hate Manfred but lets at least put the blame where it’s due.
===========================
Why is there blame due? It’s a business transaction.
JB- Manfred has final say over every MLB contract. The most recent “probable rejection” I can recall was Judge’s $400MM offer from SD.
Because it effectively brings down a player’s salary. A dollar earned today is more valuable than a dollar earned in 10 years. One of the main responsibilities of the players’ union is for the player’s to obtain their highest market value. Having arguably the best player in the league defer the overwhelmingly majority of their salary to after their career effectively helps bring ALL players’ salaries down as the ceiling has been lowered.
False. Nobody was going to pay Ohtani $70m per year in current dollars, or anywhere close to it. The real dollar amount of the contract is its present value. This is the dollar amount the Dodgers are required to set aside each year in order to accrue the interest (at a modest annual rate of return of under five percent) in order to pay him $70m ten years later. Finance 101.
LMAO No it isn’t! First, someone absolutely would of paid Ohtani $70/yr. It was his idea to defer.
Second, you obviously do not know the Time Value of Money which is finance 101. Also a 5 percent annual rate doesn’t even keep pace with inflation, but you also pulled that number out of your bu+t as there is no accrued interest on the deal. It is an interest free loan to the Dodgers via Ohtani and if you don’t believe me look it up. There’s several articles on it).
The current real value is roughly $460 million. You’re so insanely wrong it’s not even worth going further.
No. You just flunked both Finance 101 and Baseball 101. The number is actually pulled out of the CBA. Both the players and MLB agreed on a deferred compensation discount rate of 4.43% annually. Many articles can be found to explain this. The wording is found in article XIV of the CBA, if you care to understand this, which I doubt.
These Dodger salary jokes are just so damn funny, original and creative. How on earth do you come up with them?
Copy and paste is pretty much all you need.
@Mojo37
Someone sounds triggered. Time for your afternoon nap.
Not triggered. Just bored with posters like you.
Jealously is a strong motivator
Well, they make me laugh just like Beat LA from SD fans makes you laugh.
The world is a better place when everyone is laughing so let’s just all laugh and not get too sensitive when LAD is the butt of the joke.
make ’em funny and I will be the first to laugh
@Mojo37
You’re so bored that you decided to be reactionary to a troll comment, above. Wow!
There is always the Mute button and you won’t need to be bored again…
excellent advice. bye.
Mojo, I’m not asking you to laugh at the defer just like you aren’t asking SD fans to laugh at what you think is funny (Beat LA chants).
Just making the obvious point that you laugh at what makes you laugh and don’t be so defensive when someone wants to laugh at wha they want to laugh at – it doesn’t require you laughter to accept that someone else thinks it’s funny.
Perspective.
@Mojo37
Good bye!
@Longtimecoming
Well said. I think in modern society, we’re too stuck in our ways of thinking my individual opinion is the only right opinion.
@ long
I get your point but what I actually said was the Beat LA rants are “amusing.” A slight difference to be sure, but not “funny” per se. They speak to SD fans measuring themselves in terms of LAD. Why don’t we hear LA fans screaming “beat the Pads”? Anyhow, it is absolutely true that each of us determines what is funny for ourselves. We can agree on that.
Can’t wait for the series to begin to tomorrow. It should be terrific baseball. Two great squads. Enjoy it.
“I laugh every time.”
Direct quote from your post. Just saying.
Yep, series should be a good one. Everyone cheer for their team and enjoy the moment.
ok then. If I wrote that I will have to live with it. Enjoy the weekend. This off day is killing me.
FWIW I also find these chants somewhat amusing, but not of ha-ha funny type of amusing but of the too-bad sort of amusing. I’m a lot more interested in what people are for than what they are against. As a rule of life, being for requires more commitment than being against.
Blue, I tend to agree with your philosophy. I’m fine sitting next to an opposing fan wearing his gear. Cheer for your team and don’t jump in my face while you are at it and all is well. Someone is going to lose and in the end it is a game (for the fans) and a business for the ones on the field and in the offices. They get paid win or lose – granted futures are better with wins.
Besides “MVP!” chants, the only other crowd work seems to be “Padres suck!” inbetween on-field bottle throws. Class it up, LA!
Hiroki Kuroda was 33 when he signed with the Dodgers. Takashi Saito was 36, though he was a reliever. Sugano is likely only getting a two year deal wherever he signs and it won’t be for bank breaking money so he will draw plenty of interest
Good point, and Kuroda is probably the best comp — though Sugano is already two years older than Kuroda was when he signed. I probably should have said “who” will be interested rather than “if” as he undoubtedly will draw interest. I just wonder if it will be at a high enough level to temp him to make the move.
Good point BlueSky. Will mention the TB Rays, who are pretty good at picking out under the radar guys on the cheap last year only gave anothe NPB vet, Naoyuki Uwasawa a miLB deal. Make good and he never broke ST with them getting released in ST and catching on with Boston on another miLB deal, pitching just cpl MLB innings all year, rest of the time fairly poor at AAA.
Looking over what both throw.. See comparisons.. curve, slider, 2 seamer and 90-ish FB’s for both. Uwasawa is 30, Sugano nearly 4y older. This might not be a big deal, but a guy doing due diligence and a negotiating tactic with his current NPB club.
Would be a huge buy low pickup for my rebuilding O’s
Sounds like a 4-5 rotation guy to me.
MLB hitters will tee off on his Fastball.
He’s a legend in Japan forsure but it’s going to be super interesting to see if he can be serviceable over here especially at 35
cr – Koji Uehara came over from Japan and his Age 35-42 seasons were a combined 2.43 ERA and 0.833 WHIP ….. so there’s precedent for Japanese pitchers of his age.
This. And Uehara transitioned well to the bullpen, even serving as a closer on the Sox 2013 championship team. Sugano could do the same
Rsox – Koji is one of my very favorite players of all time. Incredible personality and incredibly dominant for several years in the majors.
2013 was other-wordly … 1.09 ERA, 0.565 WHIP, 11.22 K/W
FPG… still the best relief year I have seen.. statistically…Dibble/ Mariano/ Eck all had enormous ones but 13 was ridiculous… funny thing the only one who could touch him in WS was our friend Craig( Alan) watching that series with Mrs Brais she’s like the catcher is the only one hitting 90 throwing it back!!!lol
Olm – Yep not even 2006 Pap was as good as Koji in 2013.
Koji 2013 is one of the greatest in history.
kuroda did very well in his mid-late 30s too
Cardinals would be my best guess they love older SPs
The same large markets will fight over this guy. Besides, they are the only ones who know they have massive local TV income to spend.
Watch him sign with the Pirates or Reds now…
Not that I wouldn’t welcome any addition, but I’d be slightly dissapointed if the Pirates went out and added another starting arm when the line-up is in much more dire shape and considering how the team is run, they should be investing every cent into hitters and/or relievers this off-season.
The lineup will benefit from addition by subtraction by firing Haines. That said, a First Base bat needs to be a priority this winter. I think Reynolds and McCutchen would benefit big time with a Christian Walker hitting in between them
It sounds like the Pirates want Reynolds to get work in at 1B. Idk how commited they are to that though. But if they do, they should start looking at the outfield market. They have so much pitching they should move some young arms for a bat like Jesus Sanchez and/or Taylor Ward.
@mlb1225 about to say ward should be available. The only problem is he’s scared of that high and inside pitch. It might prevent teams from doing it when you have jones and skenes.
They tried to get Ward at the deadline and ended up with De La Cruz instead. Not knowing if they offered the Angels the same deal they gave the Marlins and they just weren’t interested or what. I expect the Angels will hold on to Ward because that’s what they do. The Angels don’t capitalize on players at the peak of their trade value and usually wait a year or two to long and get nothing of value back
@rsox they might pull it since they got moore and lugo. That can play corner outfield. Resign pillar and just roll with moniak and adell. I like ward but he’s doesn’t fit the timeline. They can find some scrap heap 2nd baseman or outfielder and hopefully get a pitcher in free agency.
@Rsox, that’s what I’m suspicous of, if the Angels are adamant they want to keep him for whatever reason, even if it’s not the right move.
I see Baltimore as a good fit as he’ll likely only need a year or two deal and I don’t see them breaking the bank on a Snell or Burnes reunion
If the Reds extend and Martinez turns down a QO, Sugano could be an option for Cincy to consider. A year or 2 as a veteran SP and then rotate to closer’s role would be a good fit.
I anticipate he ends up moving to the bullpen by the end of the season. Wonder what kind of deal he’s looking for, can’t imagine more than a two year deal
He might not be a bad add for a smaller market team. Atleast Japanese pitchers have transitioned to the mlb quicker than the past. Senga, Yamamoto, imanaga haven’t been bad. Sugano shouldn’t be more than 2/20 or 2/30
That might even be on the high side. It seems like his MLB comp would be someone like Marco Gonzales or Martin Perez, such that he’d likely be looking at a 1yr $6M deal with significant incentives for IP capping out at like $10M.
@dh. The market took a hit last year. Wasn’t that long ago when syndergaard and Harvey got 20 million for a year. I just feel like it bounces back and someone would do 2/30 to outbid.
Have to give him props for his BB and HR per nine inning ratios. As with most people, it’s the age that would make me hesitate. Think he’d be cool with two years? Three tops?
Home run rate in Japan is super low, so have to take that with a grain of salt.
@dh he probably comps to around yariel Rodriguez, hicks, Reynaldo Lopez. Just older so I don’t think he goes past 2 years. But he can start a year and go to the pen the next. Teams seem to be more reluctant on longer deals. Senga and imanaga might entice a team to try it instead of going after snell or burnes.
Imanga and Senga are in a different league. Imanga was coming off a year with a 10.6 K/9. Senga was at 9.8 K/9. Sugano was at 6.8 K/9 last year and is much older than both.
Even Fedde only got 2/$15M after dominating Korea.
The average ERA in his league was 2.89, which is pretty insane to think about. That’s like deadball era numbers.
Why not the Central Champions Brewers?
Cmon Friedman, 1 year contract with 10-15M salary will do the job. Most japanese player, if they can choose the place to live in US, most of them choose west coast.
wish I had some idea of what kind of velocity he’s working with. in this day and age that is absolutely pertinent information and there’s definitely a correlation between velocity and interest/earning power stateside
Jomboy actually had a breakdown of his pitch back in Dec 2020
youtu.be/LUOLcVS_5sI?si=HhJOWda9tFZg-9KX
I know, its 4 years ago, but his 4 seam FB velo still same, about 92-95mph