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Kona Takahashi To Return To NPB For 2026 Season

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2:20PM: Feinsand reports that Takahashi had offers from three Major League clubs.  7 News Boston’s Ari Alexander heard during the Winter Meetings that the Astros were interested in Takahashi, but it isn’t known if Houston was one of the teams who made the righty a formal offer.

1:30PM: Kona Takahashi’s 45-day posting window for finding a contract with MLB teams closes tomorrow, but The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the right-hander will instead return to Japan and the Seibu Lions.

There wasn’t much buzz about Takahashi’s bid to join a big league team, and reports began to emerge a few days ago that returning to Nippon Professional Baseball was a distinct possibility for the 28-year-old.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and Brian Murphy reported that Takahashi received just one offer from a Major League team, and it apparently wasn’t enticing enough for the righty to make the jump.

Takahashi doesn’t yet qualify for full international free agency.  Feinsand and Murphy suggested that he could pursue a multi-year deal with the Lions that includes an opt-out clause next winter, so Takahashi could freely pursue another contract with a Major League team.  Sammon writes that Takahashi and the Lions are indeed discussing such a contract — though the Lions still control Takahashi’s rights, the club was already willing to post him this offseason, so a longer-term deal with opt-outs somewhat formalizes the situation.  It does mean that the Lions wouldn’t be able to receive a posting fee, which would’ve been 20% of any contract worth $25MM of less in guaranteed money.

The general expectation was that Takahashi’s foray into the posting system was going to result in a low-level guarantee at best, or perhaps even a contract without any guaranteed money.  Takahashi has a solid 3.39 ERA over 1199 career innings with the Lions, and achieved success by inducing grounders at roughly a 50 percent rate and limiting walks.  The big red flag for MLB scouts was undoubtedly Takahashi’s lackluster 17.17% career strikeout rate.

It might take a particularly strong 2026 NPB season for Takahashi to elevate his stock in the eyes of big league scouts, but he’ll still be relatively young (turning 30 in February 2027) in advance of what would be his first MLB campaign.  With another year of good results and eating innings, Takahashi might draw more attention as a back-end rotation arm or perhaps as a multi-inning reliever next winter, should he end up opting out of his next contract.

Cubs Notes: Imai, Okamoto

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Tatsuya Imai came off the board this afternoon. He agreed to terms with the Astros on a three-year, $54MM guarantee with opt-outs after the first two seasons. It was both a surprise landing spot and contract, as the NPB right-hander had generally been expected to pull a nine-figure deal that probably would have priced him out of Houston.

The Cubs were among the teams most commonly speculated as a fit for Imai over his 45-day posting window. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic wrote last month that Chicago was involved but reluctant to make a long-term commitment that valued him as a top-of-the-rotation arm. The rest of the market evidently shared that trepidation.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that the Cubs appear to have been the top competition to Houston by the end of the signing period. Both Feinsand and Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggest that neither the Yankees nor Mets were heavily involved. The Yankees may be more focused on the lineup — they reportedly have an offer out to Cody Bellinger — while previous reporting has indicated the Mets aren’t eager to make a long-term investment in a free agent starter. Imai apparently was not going to be an exception, as Feinsand writes that the Mets weren’t convinced he’d be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

An upper mid-rotation starter has been the Cubs’ biggest need all offseason. They’ve yet to make any moves in the rotation aside from declining their option on and then retaining Shota Imanaga via the qualifying offer. They’re still lacking a high-end complement to Cade Horton at the top of the staff, at least until Justin Steele returns from April’s elbow surgery.

Imanaga had a terrible final few weeks as his home run rate spiked. Matthew Boyd was excellent in the first half but appeared to wear down as the season went along. His 179 2/3 innings pitched were 101 more than he’d thrown in any MLB season since 2019. Boyd took a 2.34 earned run average into the All-Star Break but allowed a 4.63 mark over his final 12 appearances. His strikeout rate dropped more than four percentage points in the second half. He’s headed into his age-35 season. Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea and Javier Assad profile as back-end or swing options.

The Cubs could still pursue any of Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez or Zac Gallen if they want to add a starter via free agency. Teams have set significant asking prices in talks involving starting pitching, though the likes of MacKenzie Gore or Kris Bubic remain trade candidates.

RosterResource calculates Chicago’s luxury tax projection around $210MM. That leaves them almost $35MM below the base threshold and $21MM shy of their season-ending mark from 2025. They should have some payroll flexibility. If they don’t like the value on any available starting pitchers, they could potentially turn their attention to the offense as a way to replace some of the production lost from Kyle Tucker (whom they’re not expected to re-sign).

The Cubs have been loosely linked to third basemen, in particular. Reports have tied them to Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suárez, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer gave a firm vote of confidence to in-house third baseman Matt Shaw. This evening, Heyman listed the Cubs among a number of teams that have shown some interest in NPB star Kazuma Okamoto. The right-handed hitting corner infielder has until Sunday afternoon to sign.

Okamoto has been also been tied to the Padres, Pirates, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Angels this offseason. Most of those teams make more sense as landing spots than the Cubs, who have Shaw and Michael Busch at the corners. Plugging Okamoto in at designated hitter would block the path to at-bats for young hitters Moisés Ballesteros and Owen Caissie. Okamoto could take at-bats against lefty pitching from Busch but would have a cleaner path to everyday playing time with a team like Pittsburgh (at third base) or San Diego (at first base).

Kona Takahashi Could Return To NPB

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Right-hander Tatsuya Imai found an MLB home earlier today, signing a three-year deal with the Astros. The same can’t be said for Imai’s former Seibu Lions teammate, Kona Takahashi, whose posting window closes on Sunday. With just one major league offer on the table, Takahashi could be headed back to Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Mark Feinsand and Brian Murphy of MLB.com.

Imai landed a contract on the final day of his posting window, so there’s certainly still time for Takahashi to find a desirable deal. Feinsand and Murphy didn’t provide additional details about the lone offer in front of Takahashi, but their report suggests it might not be enough to coax the righty stateside. The duo suggested that Takahashi could head back to the Lions on a new multi-year deal with opt-outs that would allow him to hit the open market following the 2026 season as an unrestricted free agent. Avoiding the posting system and the associated release fees could make Takahashi more appealing to MLB teams next offseason.

The 28-year-old Takahashi bounced back to a degree in 2025 after a down year in 2024. He posted an ERA just over 3.00 across 24 starts with the Lions. He continued to show impeccable control (6.7% walk rate), though his strikeout rate fell to a career-low 14.3%. Takahashi had made just 15 starts the prior season. He recorded a 3.87 ERA in 2024 and failed to reach 120 innings for the first time since 2018.

Takahashi had a stellar two-year run from 2022 to 2023. He put together consecutive seasons with a sub-2.25 ERA while pushing his strikeout rate up near 20%. Takahashi tossed a career-high 175 2/3 innings in 2022, then came back with a 155-inning campaign the following year. Outside of 2024, he’s typically been a durable member of the Lions’ rotation.

James Fegan and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs pegged Takahashi as a backend starter, with praise for his pitching prowess but questions about his underwhelming fastball. Fegan and Longenhagen tiered Takahashi with Foster Griffin and Anthony Kay as potential options to fill out an MLB rotation. Griffin landed with the Nationals on a one-year deal, while Kay secured a two-year commitment from the White Sox.

Photo courtesy of Peter Aiken, Imagn Images

The Best Fits For Tatsuya Imai

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Decision time nears for Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai. He needs to finalize a contract with an MLB team by Friday at 4:00 pm Central if he's to make the move stateside this year. There's no indication that he's considering sticking with the Seibu Lions, meaning an agreement should be imminent. While there's a little over 48 hours to make the deal official, Imai must agree to terms with enough margin to complete a standard physical.

The 27-year-old (28 in May) is conducting in-person meetings with interested teams in Los Angeles this week. The 5’11” righty has been one of Japan’s best pitchers over the past two seasons. He’s coming off a 1.92 ERA showing with 178 strikeouts across 163 2/3 innings. Imai has an NPB-best 27% strikeout rate since the start of 2024. He sits in the mid-90s with a promising slider. Command was an issue earlier in his career, but his strike-throwing has progressed as he has gained experience. This past season’s 7% walk rate was a personal low and better than the MLB average.

Whichever team that signs Imai will owe a release fee to the Lions. That’s proportional to the contract value: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of all further spending. Imai isn't expected to come close to the $325MM deal that Yoshinobu Yamamoto commanded two offseasons ago. He's a few years older and simply not as good. Yet it's generally believed that he'll command a nine-figure guarantee, perhaps into the $150MM range, from a team that feels he's a mid-rotation arm.

Which clubs are best positioned to make that investment? Salary projections are courtesy of RosterResource.

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Kona Takahashi’s Posting Window Nearing Conclusion

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Most of the focus this week has been on the concluding posting windows for NPB stars Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto. They’re not the only two Japanese free agents whose situations will be resolved within the next few days. Right-hander Kona Takahashi will also need to sign this week if he’s going to make the jump to MLB this offseason.

As MLB.com’s Brian Murphy noted at the time, Takahashi was formally posted by the Seibu Lions on November 21. That’s the same date as Okamoto’s posting. Both players have until Sunday, January 4 at 4:00 pm Central to sign. Imai was posted two days earlier, so his 45-day window closes on Friday afternoon.

Imai and Okamoto are reportedly meeting with clubs in Los Angeles this week. There’s little doubt that both players are going to sign before the end of their posting deadlines. That’s less clear with Takahashi, who doesn’t have nearly the same swing-and-miss upside that Imai brings to the table. Takahashi struck out only 14.3% of batters faced across 24 starts in 2025. He has never recorded a strikeout rate higher than 20% in an NPB season.

Takahashi is headed into his age-29 season. He has been an effective control artist in Japan, walking fewer than 7% of batters faced in consecutive seasons. He posted a 3.04 earned run average over 148 innings last year and owns a 3.39 mark over parts of 11 NPB campaigns. James Fegan and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote in October that Takahashi projected as a fifth starter in MLB. FanGraphs grouped him alongside Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin in that tier. Kay went on to sign a two-year, $12MM deal with the White Sox. Griffin signed a one-year deal at $5.5MM with Washington.

A Japanese-language report from Sanspo in the middle of December indicated that Takahashi’s camp was in contact with three unnamed teams. It’s not known if he has received any MLB offers, nor is it clear that Takahashi would make the move to affiliated ball if teams are only willing to put minor league proposals on the table. If he doesn’t sign with an MLB club, he’d remain with the Lions.

Alexander Canario Signs With NPB’s Seibu Lions

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The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced the signing of outfielder Alexander Canario earlier this month. He had been non-tendered by the Pirates at the end of the season.

Canario, 25, heads overseas for the first time in his career. A notable prospect during his time in the Cubs system, he plateaued in the upper minors because of increasing strikeout concerns. Canario never got much of a big league look in Chicago and bounced around a bit last winter. The Cubs traded him to the Mets in February. New York designated him for assignment on Opening Day and flipped him to Pittsburgh for cash considerations.

The Bucs kept the out-of-options Canario on their roster all season. He played in a little over half their games and tallied a career-high 234 plate appearances. Canario struggled to a .218/.274/.338 slash while striking out 80 times (34.2%). Among hitters with 200+ trips to the dish, only Luke Raley, Gabriel Arias, Michael A. Taylor and Christopher Morel swung and missed more frequently. Canario graded well defensively in his 521 innings split between the three outfield spots, but the lack of offense and roster flexibility led the Bucs to drop him.

Canario takes a career .252/.345/.521 Triple-A batting line to NPB. He has connected on 32 home runs in 120 games at the top minor league level. He’s an above-average runner with a plus arm and significant raw power. It’s the kind of profile that generally plays better in foreign leagues, where the average velocity and strikeout rate is lower than it is MLB. Canario would have been limited to minor league offers had he remained in affiliated ball, and his out-of-options status meant he’d likely have bounced around the waiver wire even if he hit his way back onto a team’s 40-man roster.

Spencer Howard To Sign With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants

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Right-hander Spencer Howard is signing with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, according to reports out of Japan (h/t to Yakyu Cosmopolitan). It’ll be the second year in NPB for Howard, who pitched for the Rakuten Eagles this past season. Before heading to Japan, Howard spent parts of five seasons with four MLB teams.

Injuries limited Howard to just nine starts with the Eagles in 2025. He pitched well when available, posting a 2.22 ERA across 48 2/3 innings. Howard is the second foreign signing for the Giants in the past 10 days. The club inked former Red Sox infielder Bobby Dalbec last week.

The 29-year-old Howard was once among the top prospects in Philadelphia’s organization. FanGraphs and MLB.com both gave him the No. 1 spot in 2021. The righty had briefly debuted the year prior, making six uneventful starts in the shortened 2020 season. Howard made 11 appearances for the Phillies in 2021, pitching to a 5.72 ERA with a solid 24.4% strikeout rate but a concerning 13.4% walk rate. Philly shipped him to Texas at the trade deadline for a return headlined by veteran arms Ian Kennedy and Kyle Gibson.

Texas gave Howard his longest look at the big-league level, but injuries limited him to 62 2/3 innings from 2021 to 2023. He wasn’t particularly effective with the club, scuffling to an 8.37 ERA across 21 appearances. Howard’s results at Triple-A Round Rock weren’t much better in that stretch. Texas shipped him to the Yankees in August 2023. He would also spend time with the Giants and Guardians before making the move to NPB. Howard has a 7.00 ERA across 144 MLB innings. His 4.77 SIERA paints a rosier picture, though not enough to suggest a return to the big leagues is in the cards.

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images

Tatsuya Imai Meeting With Teams In Advance of Friday’s Signing Deadline

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The next couple days will see at least two big-ticket free agents come off the board. Japanese stars Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto are nearing the end of their respective 45-day posting windows. Imai has until Friday at 4:00 pm Central to sign; Okamoto’s contract must be finalized by the same time on Sunday.

Reporting out of Japan over the weekend revealed that Okamoto was traveling to the U.S. for a final round of in-person meetings. Imai is evidently doing the same. Katie Woo and Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote last night that Imai had spoken with multiple teams and would continue to do so throughout the week. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays that Imai and Okamoto — both of whom are represented by the Boras Corporation — are conducting in-person interviews in Los Angeles (link via MLB.com’s Brian Murphy). Scott Boras is based out of Southern California, so the location of the meetings shouldn’t be viewed as an indication that the Dodgers or Angels are favorites.

Imai has been publicly tied to the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Phillies and Orioles since his posting period began. While a recent Yahoo! Japan article listed the White Sox as another possibility, MLB.com’s report downplays the likelihood of the White Sox landing the right-hander. Chicago shockingly added Munetaka Murakami last week, but that only came after the slugger’s market cratered because of concerns about his strikeout rate. Murakami wound up settling for a two-year, $34MM contract. Imai is expected to do far better given the cost of high-upside starting pitching.

The 5’11” righty has been one of Japan’s best pitchers over the past two seasons. He’s coming off a 1.92 ERA showing with 178 strikeouts across 163 2/3 innings. Imai has an NPB-best 27% strikeout rate since the start of 2024. He sits in the mid-90s with a promising slider. Command was an issue earlier in his career, but his strike-throwing has progressed as he has gained experience. This past season’s 7% walk rate was a personal low and better than the MLB average.

Imai is headed into his age-28 season. His contract needs to be finalized by Friday, so it’s likely he’ll agree to terms by tomorrow or Thursday. That’d leave time for a standard physical. The team that signs him will owe a posting fee to the Seibu Lions. That’s proportional to the contract value: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of all further spending.

Kazuma Okamoto Travels To U.S. For In-Person Meetings With Teams

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Star Nippon Professional Baseball third baseman Kazuma Okamoto has traveled to the United States for a series of in-person meetings as he enters the final stretch of his 45-day posting window, per a report from Yahoo Japan (hat tip to Yakyu Cosmopolitan). Okamoto and agent Scott Boras are narrowing the field of interested clubs as Okamoto nears his early-January deadline for an agreement.

To this point, each of the Blue Jays, Pirates, Red Sox, Padres and Angels have been prominently linked to Okamoto, who’ll turn 30 next June. The longtime Yomiuri Giants star, who’d been their team captain prior to being posted, is one of the most consistent sluggers in Japan. He’s a career .277/.361/.522 hitter in NPB who has reached 30 home runs in all but two of his 11 seasons. That includes 2025, when injuries limited him to 69 games, and 2024, when he “only” hit 27 homers in 143 games.

However, despite hitting a career-low 15 home runs this past season due to an elbow injury, Okamoto had the best production of his excellent NPB tenure on a rate basis. In 293 trips to the batter’s box, he slashed .327/.416/.598 with a robust 11.3% walk rate that matched his minuscule 11.3% strikeout rate. His 24.3% line-drive rate from this past season was a career-high, and Okamoto’s .271 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was the second-best mark of his career, trailing only his 41-homer season from 2023.

Like countryman Munetaka Murakami, Okamoto is a corner infielder whose glovework concerns big league teams. He’s considered a better defender at third base than Murakami but is still viewed by many clubs as a player who’ll likely spend most (if not all) of his first MLB contract as a first baseman and/or designated hitter. Those defensive concerns contributed significantly to Murakami settling for a two-year deal that fell well short of industry expectations. Defensive concerns surrounding Okamoto aren’t as prominent, nor does he have the alarming swing-and-miss profile that also contributed to the bearish market for Murakami. However, Okamoto is four years older. Next year being his age-30 season will likely limit the length of his forthcoming contract (though perhaps not to the same extent as Murakami).

Of the teams connected to Okamoto thus far, there’s no clear favorite. The Blue Jays presumably still have Bo Bichette ahead of him on their wishlist — possibly Alex Bregman as well. Boston has also been pursuing both Bregman and Bichette (likely in that order). The Pirates have already acquired one first base option, signing Ryan O’Hearn, and have another in Spencer Horwitz. If they were to make a real push for Okamoto, they’d need to be confident in his ability to play third base. The Angels have a clearer path to playing time at the infield corners (particularly third base). The Padres won’t be displacing Manny Machado at third base, so Okamoto would need to play first base, with Jake Cronenworth manning second base and KBO acquisition Sung Mun Song shifting to the outfield or a utility role.

Of course, it remains perfectly plausible that other, yet-unidentified clubs are in the bidding. The A’s, Mariners, Twins, Rangers, D-backs, Marlins, Mets, Cubs and Nationals all have varying levels of questions at the infield corners. Not all of those teams have significant money to spend this winter — the Rangers, Twins and D-backs are all known to be reducing payroll relative to recent seasons — but any of the bunch could get creative with backloaded contract structures and/or shed payroll by another means to make room if Okamoto is deemed a sufficient upgrade. That’s a largely speculative list, to be clear, but given Okamoto’s track record in NPB, it’d be a surprise if “only” five MLB’s 30 teams had any interest in signing him.

It bears noting that while Okamoto was originally set to be posted on Nov. 19, MLBTR has confirmed that his posting didn’t become official until Nov. 21. That pushes his window to sign a contract with a big league club from the original Jan. 2 to Jan. 4. Whichever club signs him will owe the Giants a posting/release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. That fee comes on top of the value of the contract itself. Subsequent earnings (club/player options, performance incentives, award bonuses, etc.) fall under that umbrella as well, once they’re officially reached.

Kohei Arihara Signs With NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

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Former Rangers right-hander Kohei Arihara’s bid to return to MLB is over. The veteran will remain in NPB, signing a four-year deal with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, reports Yuri Karasawa of World Baseball Network (Yakyu Cosmopolitan on X). Arihara will earn about $15.4MM, adds Karasawa.

After three seasons with the SoftBank Hawks, Arihara became a free agent on December 2. Reports emerged in late November that the righty was considering coming stateside. Instead, he’ll head back to the team he debuted with back in 2018. Arihara’s solid results with the club from 2018 to 2020 earned him a big-league look with the Rangers. After two injury-plagued MLB seasons, Arihara returned to NPB in 2023. He posted three strong years with the Hawks, including a 2.36 ERA over 26 starts in 2024.

It’s unclear if Arihara was generating interest at the MLB level. The notion that he would leave NPB may have been a negotiating tactic, and it seems to have worked. As Karasawa points out, the AAV of Arihara’s contract approaches $4MM, a hefty number by NPB standards. 

Arihara’s stint in MLB was ruined by a serious shoulder injury. After a handful of decent outings to open his career, the righty was slowed by an arm issue that ended up being an aneurysm in his throwing shoulder. Surgery knocked him out until the final month of the 2021 season. He was hammered for nine earned runs over 12 innings once he returned to the mound. Arihara made it back up with the Rangers the following year, but posted a 9.45 ERA across 20 innings. He was designated for assignment in September 2022 and hit free agency at the end of the season.

Photo courtesy of Jim Cowsert, Imagn Images

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