A’s Have Shown Interest In Walker Buehler

The Athletics entered the 2024-25 offseason without a single guaranteed contract on the books for 2025 and a tiny arbitration class, putting them in an odd position. On the one hand, that leaves considerable resources to add to the roster, even by their minimal payroll standards. On the other, persuading free agents to sign with a club that’s going to play the next several seasons in a Triple-A park will be a tall order. The A’s apparently have indeed been out there in the market, as manager Mark Kotsay acknowledged when speaking at this week’s Sports Business Administration Summit at USC that his club has been in contact with right-hander Walker Buehler (X link via Michael J. Duarte of NBC Los Angeles).

A match between the two parties doesn’t feel particularly likely. USC’s Kasey Kazliner adds that Kotsay suggested Buehler was not inclined to play in West Sacramento next season. That’s sure to be a common theme among free agents with any sort of strong market. The A’s will likely have to overpay to persuade free agents, as they did a few years back when handing out multi-year deals to utilitymen Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson (neither of which panned out well).

Even with a match unlikely, the Athletics’ interest in Buehler is of some note. It at least signals some intent to shop in a more expensive portion of the free agent pool than they did when signing players like Peterson, Diaz, Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami in recent offseasons. Buehler isn’t one of the top free agent arms on the market necessarily, but he’ll be a popular target in the second or third tier as clubs eye a potential rebound to the front-of-the-rotation form he showed earlier in his career, before missing the 2023 season while mending from his second Tommy John surgery.

Buehler’s regular season return in 2024 was decidedly sub-par. He pitched 75 1/3 innings with an ugly 5.38 ERA and career-worst strikeout and walk rates: 18.6% and 8.1%, respectively. His average four-seam fastball was 95 mph, about 1.4 mph down from its prior peak. His 8.2% swinging-strike rate ranked 190th among the 204 pitchers who pitched at least 70 innings in 2024 (starter or reliever).

Despite those struggles, injuries elsewhere on the staff thrust Buehler onto the postseason roster. His playoff run got out to a brutal start, as the Padres shelled him for six runs in five innings in his first appearance. It was smooth sailing from there. Buehler pitched 10 more shutout innings with a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio. That includes five shutout frames in Game 3 of the World Series. As fans surely remember, just 48 hours after that five-inning start in Game 3, Buehler came out of the ’pen to set down Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells and Alex Verdugo in order, earning a save as he clinched the Dodgers’ World Series championship. It wasn’t the heart of the Yankees’ order, but a World Series-clinching save on 48 hours’ rest is still quite the way to finish out a season.

Buehler’s postseason heroics have left a lasting impression on many fans and pundits, though it’s unclear if big league clubs feel the same. Today’s front offices aren’t typically swayed by a small sample of big-game excellence. At season’s end, Buehler looked like a candidate for a modest one-year deal. That was true even through his first postseason start. Will scoreless starts of four and five innings, plus one gutty relief outing to close out the championship substantially increase his earning power? It seems unlikely. The Dodgers, who know Buehler best of all and are in need of pitching themselves, declined to make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer.

It’s possible that Buehler’s pre-surgery excellence and memorable postseason finish spark some interest on relatively modest multi-year deals. The likelier path to a big free agent payday, however, would be a deal that affords him the opportunity to return to the market next season. Perhaps he could follow the Sean Manaea/Ross Stripling/Andrew Heaney mold and land a two-year pact in the mid-$20MMs with an opt-out provision. Many clubs, however, will view Buehler similarly to Jack Flaherty last offseason and hope to land him on a one-year pact with a solid salary. (Flaherty signed for $14MM.) The Braves are among the teams reported to have interest.

As for the A’s themselves, they’ll presumably bring in rotation help one way or another. JP Sears currently sits atop the staff, but there’s not much certainty thereafter. Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Mitch Spence, tossed 151 innings with a 4.58 ERA, good command and below-average strikeout numbers. Right-hander Joey Estes totaled 127 2/3 frames with even better command but even lower strikeout numbers and a 5.01 ERA. Righty J.T. Ginn had similar rate stats to both and a 4.24 ERA in a smaller sample of 34 innings. Twenty-nine-year-old swingman Osvaldo Bido mopped up 63 1/3 innings with a 3.41 ERA, a strong 24.3% strikeout rate and an ugly 10% walk rate. Flamethrowing righty Joe Boyle sat 98 mph with his heater but posted a 6.42 ERA while walking 17.7% of his opponents in 47 2/3 innings (10 starts). Lefties Hogan Harris and Brady Basso both made a handful of starts in 2024, but both are already 27 and posted more concerning numbers in the minors. The A’s will need some form of rotation help — it’s just a matter of whether they can sway some veteran starters to sign on in West Sacramento or whether they’ll need to pursue more help via trade.