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Walker Buehler

Latest On Red Sox’ Rotation

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Right-hander Tanner Houck was lit up by the Tigers last night, the latest chapter in a very frustrating season. In the aftermath of the game, manager Álex Cora wouldn’t commit to Houck getting another start. “We’ll talk about it, of course,” Cora said, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. “I’ve got to take a look at the video and we’ve got to see what we’re gonna do. Right now, it’s too fresh. It’s too quick. We have to take a look at it and see if it’s mechanical, usage, or where we’re at.”

Houck only lasted 2 1/3 innings last night, but he allowed 11 earned runs in that time on three walks and nine hits, including two home runs. He did not record a strikeout. Shockingly, that was his second time this year allowing 11 earned runs in a start, the first coming against the Rays on April 14th.

For the whole season, he now has an 8.04 earned run average in 43 2/3 innings. It’s a sea change relative to last season. After years of oscillating between the rotation and the bullpen, he seemingly established himself as a bonafide starter in 2024. He took the ball 30 times for the Sox and logged 178 2/3 innings with a 3.12 ERA. His 20.7% strikeout rate was a tad below average but he had a solid 6.5% walk rate and strong 55.9% ground ball rate.

Everything has gone in the wrong direction so far this year. His walk rate has climbed marginally to 8.4% but his strikeouts are down to a 15.8% clip while he’s only getting grounders 48.3% of the time.

It’s a bit of a mystery as Houck says he can’t find anything physically wrong, which is backed up by the data. His velocity is actually higher than last year. For whatever reason, his splitter is way less effective, which seems to be a big part of the problem. Opponents hit .194 against it last year with a .264 slugging percentage, but those numbers are up to .425 and .475 this year. His sweeper has also declined in impact, though to a lesser degree. That pitch allowed a .230 average and .357 slug last year but .305 and .492 this year.

As Cora laid out, it’s a puzzle they will have to solve, though they may not let Houck work it out in the rotation. Currently, the club is also giving starts to Garrett Crochet, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello and Hunter Dobbins. Giolito is the only one in that group with an ERA above 2.78, and he’s only made three starts since coming off the IL.

The Sox also have reinforcements on the way. Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts and Kutter Crawford are each on the IL and making progress towards returning to the club. Buehler landed on the IL earlier this month due to shoulder bursitis but is expected back next week without a rehab assignment. Fitts and Crawford are a bit further away but both have been throwing lately and appear to be nearing rehab assignments. Fitts landed on the IL a month ago due to a right pectoral strain. Crawford has been on the IL all year due to patellar tendinopathy in his right knee.

As those guys return, it will be harder for Houck to continue holding a spot unless he can turn things around. That’s if the Sox even give him another start, which doesn’t seem to be guaranteed. In addition to those injury returnees, there’s also Sean Newcomb, who did a huge solid for the Sox last night. After Houck exited, he absorbed 5 2/3 innings with two earned runs allowed. He now has a 3.51 ERA on the year, working both as a starter and reliever. Cooper Criswell and Josh Winckowski are on the 40-man and putting up good numbers in Triple-A.

Given how good Houck was last year, the Sox might be tempted into giving him a chance to work it out. However, they are currently in the midst of a super tight playoff race and can only afford so much patience. Houck has had previous success as a reliever, so perhaps they could kick him back there. But on the other hand, he has clear upside as a mid-rotation starter, so perhaps they don’t want to give up on that. He does still have options and could be sent down to Triple-A to try to right the ship there. One way or another, decisions will need to be made soon.

Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images

Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL East

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MLBTR wraps our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the AL East. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central, AL Central, NL East

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore signed Kittredge to a one-year, $10MM free agent deal over the winter. He’s making $9MM this season and has a matching club option or a $1MM buyout for 2026. Kittredge was supposed to be a key setup man in front of Félix Bautista, but he suffered a left knee injury early in camp and required a debridement surgery. He began a rehab stint at High-A Aberdeen on Sunday. While there’s plenty of time for Kittredge to turn things around, it hasn’t been the start to his O’s tenure that he envisioned.

Laureano, who was non-tendered by the Braves, signed a $4MM contract with Baltimore in February. That came with a $6.5MM team option without a buyout, giving the Orioles an extra season of club control. Injuries to Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser have pressed him into everyday work, mostly in left field. He hasn’t provided much through his first 24 games. Laureano is hitting .185 with a .237 on-base percentage through 59 plate appearances. He has hit a trio of home runs but struck out 18 times while drawing only four walks. Laureano has generally been a below-average hitter since being suspended following a positive PED test in 2021. He’ll need much better production over the next few months for the Orioles to exercise the option.

Boston Red Sox

Buehler signed a one-year, $21.05MM free agent deal to match the price of the qualifying offer — which the Dodgers had declined to issue when he hit the market. It’s a relatively expensive pillow contract. Buehler was coming off a dismal regular season, in which he’d posted a 5.38 ERA with a career-worst 18.6% strikeout rate over 16 starts. He finished his Dodger tenure on a high note, though, closing out the World Series while pitching to a 3.60 earned run average in 15 playoff innings.

An ace-caliber pitcher early in his career, Buehler hasn’t looked the same since undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in August 2022. His stint in Boston has gotten out to a shaky start. While his 4.28 ERA through 33 2/3 innings is serviceable, he’s striking out just 20.7% of opponents while averaging a personal-low 93.5 MPH on his fastball. Shoulder inflammation sent him to the injured list last week. The mutual option was always an accounting measure designed to push the $3MM buyout to the end of the year rather than disbursing it throughout the season as salary. The team seems likelier to decline its end than the pitcher does.

Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He negotiated an opt-out clause after the first season and hoped to retest the market after one strong year. Instead, Giolito’s elbow gave out during Spring Training and he required UCL surgery that cost him the entire season. The veteran righty made the easy decision to stick around for year two.

By exercising his player option, Giolito unlocked a 2026 option for the team. It’s valued at $14MM and comes with a $1.5MM buyout. If Giolito pitches 140 innings this year, it’d convert to a $19MM mutual option (still with the $1.5MM buyout). That’d give him a chance to test free agency if he wants. Giolito has an uphill battle to 140 frames. A hamstring strain cost him the first month of the season. He finally made his team debut last week, working six innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts in a no-decision against Toronto. The Rangers tagged him for six runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 frames tonight.

The Red Sox added Hendriks on a two-year, $10MM deal over the 2023-24 offseason. They knew they wouldn’t get much in year one, as Hendriks had undergone Tommy John surgery the prior August. He attempted to make a late-season return last year but was shut down after a minor flare-up of elbow discomfort. Elbow inflammation shelved him for a couple weeks to begin this season, though he made his team debut in mid-April.

Hendriks allowed two runs on three hits in one inning during his first appearance. He has rattled off five straight scoreless outings since then, albeit with four walks in five frames. His 95 MPH average fastball is solid but below the 97-98 range at which he sat during his elite seasons with the White Sox.

Note: Jarren Duran’s arbitration deal contains a ’26 club option with an $8MM base salary. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the Sox decline the option.

New York Yankees

  • Tim Hill, LHP ($3MM club option, $350K buyout)

Hill finished last season with the Yankees after being released by the White Sox in June. He’d allowed nearly six earned runs per nine with Chicago but managed a tidy 2.05 ERA over 44 frames for New York. He’s out to a similarly productive start to the ’25 season. Hill has surrendered five runs through 17 1/3 innings (2.60 ERA).

While the soft-tossing lefty has managed just 11 strikeouts, his game has always been built around ground-balls. He’s getting grounders at a massive 81.6% clip thus far. Only nine of the 40 batted balls he’s allowed have been hit into the air. It’s easily the highest grounder rate in the majors. The Yankees value this skillset as much as any team, and the $2.65MM option decision is a drop in the bucket for them.

Loáisiga is still working back from last April’s elbow surgery. The righty has generally been a productive reliever when healthy, but he’s only once managed even 50 MLB innings in a season. He’s on a rehab stint with Low-A Tampa and will need another few weeks before he’s built into MLB game shape. Loáisiga is making $5MM this season. The option has a matching base value and could climb by another $500K if the Yankees exercise it. He’d earn $100K each at reaching 50, 55, 60, 65 and 70 innings in 2026.

Tampa Bay Rays

Fairbanks is in the final guaranteed season of the three-year, $12MM extension that he signed before the 2023 campaign. That includes a $1MM buyout on a club option that comes with a $7MM base value. That’s a bargain for a quality high-leverage reliever, but the deal includes various escalators that could push the option price above $12MM.

The option value would climb by $500K if he gets to 125 combined appearances between 2023-25 and another $1MM apiece at 135, 150 and 165 combined outings. Fairbanks made it into 95 games over the first two seasons. He’d trigger the first $500K escalator at just 30 appearances this year and would max it out if he makes it into 70 games. He can boost the option price by another $2MM based on this year’s games finished total: $500K apiece at 25, 30, 35 and 40.

Fairbanks has never reached 50 appearances in a season because of various injuries, but he’s already at 14 games through this season’s first six weeks. Fairbanks has finished 11 of those contests while working as Kevin Cash’s primary closer. He has recorded 13 strikeouts against six walks while allowing three runs over 13 1/3 innings. The option price should remain solid value, though the escalators might eventually push it to an area where Tampa Bay would rather explore deadline or offseason trades rather than having a reliever projecting as one of the highest-paid players on the roster.

Jansen seemed to be pulling away from the rest of a weak free agent catching class early last season. His production tanked from June onwards, leaving him to sign an $8.5MM pillow contract with Tampa Bay. He’s making an $8MM salary and will collect a $500K buyout on a $12MM mutual option at year’s end. Last summer’s offensive drought has carried into 2025. Jansen has only one home run with a .147/.301/.221 batting line through 83 plate appearances. He remains a very patient hitter, but the Rays would have an easy decision to decline their end of the option if he doesn’t find the double-digit home run power he showed during his best seasons in Toronto.

Lowe has had a rare extended run with a Tampa Bay team that is almost always willing to trade any player. He’s in his eighth big league season and in year seven of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. Lowe collected $24MM for what would have been his standard six seasons of team control. The Rays exercised a $10.5MM option for this year and can retain him once more at an $11.5MM price. It’s an $11MM decision after accounting for the $500K buyout.

While injuries have been a recurring issue, Lowe has been one of the better offensive middle infielders in the sport when healthy. His 39-homer season in 2021 is an outlier, but he has tallied 21 longballs in each of the past two seasons. He’s out to a much slower start this year, batting .203/.258/.305 with four homers across 128 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics are still solid, but his career-worst 20.1% swinging strike rate is the fifth-highest among hitters with at least 50 PAs.

This one can still go a few different ways. If Lowe hits like this all season, he’d be bought out. If he finds something like his 2023-24 form (.238/.319/.458), then $11MM is reasonable. It’d keep him as one of Tampa Bay’s highest-paid players, though, so there’s a decent chance he’ll be traded at some point this year. The 16-18 Rays look like fringe Wild Card contenders for a second consecutive year. They could again try to walk the line between buying and selling come deadline season.

The Rays signed Waguespack to a restructured deal early last offseason. He’s making $1.3MM this season and has a $1.5MM club option for next year. That’d escalate to $2MM if he reaches 20 “points” this season. Waguespack would receive one point for each MLB relief appearance and two points per big league start. He has spent the ’25 season to date on optional assignment to Triple-A Durham.

Working as a pure reliever for the Bulls, Waguespack has reeled off 14 innings of two-run ball. He has fanned 15 hitters against three walks while getting ground-balls at a lofty 60% clip. It hasn’t earned him a major league call yet, but he should be up before too much longer if he keeps performing at that level. Waguespack spent the 2022-23 seasons with the Orix Buffaloes in Japan. He made four MLB appearances with Tampa Bay last year but lost a good portion of the season to a rotator cuff injury.

Note: Taylor Walls’ arbitration deal contains a ’26 club option with a $2.45MM base salary. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the Rays decline the option.

Toronto Blue Jays

  • None

AL East Notes: Swanson, Buehler, Eflin, McDermott

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Erik Swanson has yet to pitch this season due to a median nerve entrapment in his right arm, but the reliever’s path back to the Blue Jays roster hit a snag in the form of some soreness in his right forearm.  The issue prevented Swanson from a planned minor league rehab outing earlier this week, and the good news is that initial tests revealed no structural damage.  However, Swanson told The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon and other reporters that more tests are set for Monday, as it hasn’t yet been determined what exactly is causing the forearm discomfort.

Swanson had some bouts with forearm soreness at a few different points in his career, such as in each of the last two Spring Trainings, and also a minor strain that sent him to the injured list for a little over three weeks during the 2020 season when he was pitching with the Mariners.  Though the medicals have been clean so far on his current issue, obviously all parties will be cautious in dealing with any forearm-related injury.  In the short term, the problem has delayed Swanson’s recovery, and adds more uncertainty over when exactly the reliever will make his 2025 debut.

More from around the AL East…

  • Speaking of pitchers on the injured list, Walker Buehler was sidelined earlier this week due to bursitis in his right shoulder.  The injury wasn’t thought to be overly serious, and Buehler told reporters (including The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey) today that he would’ve pitched though the discomfort if it had arisen during a late-season scenario.  Buehler has a 4.28 ERA over 33 2/3 innings for the Red Sox, as a rough first two starts of the year gave way to a much smoother 2.59 ERA over his last four outings.
  • It has been almost a month since Zach Eflin was sidelined by a right lat strain, but the Orioles right-hander has now started a rehab assignment with the team’s high-A affiliate.  Eflin looked sharp in tossing four scoreless innings on 58 pitches for Aberdeen today, and while we’ll know more once Eflin recovers, he told the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich on Saturday that he was hopeful that he’d just need the one rehab outing.  While the O’s aren’t going to rush a player back from the IL, the team obviously needs all the help it can get, given how the rotation has been ravaged by injuries and poor performance.
  • One of those injured Orioles pitchers came off the 15-day IL today, as Baltimore activated Chayce McDermott and optioned the righty to Triple-A Norfolk.  McDermott suffered a right lat strain early in Spring Training and didn’t throw any Grapefruit League innings, and his 2025 workload to date has consisted of two appearances and 5 2/3 innings during a minor league rehab assignment.  This assignment to Triple-A will give McDermott more time to fully build himself up, with an eye towards possibly returning to the Show later in 2025.  McDermott is a well-regarded pitching prospect who made his MLB debut last July, tossing four innings in his lone big league appearance to date.

Red Sox Place Walker Buehler On Injured List

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5:40pm: The Red Sox have now made it official. Buehler goes on the IL with right shoulder bursitis, while Dobbins has been recalled.

4:35pm: The Red Sox are placing right-hander Walker Buehler on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right shoulder, manager Alex Cora announced (link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). The club is hopeful that it’ll only be a minimum stint for the right-hander, who’d been slated to start tomorrow. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reported earlier in the day that righty Hunter Dobbins is expected to get tomorrow’s start. He made his big league debut last month and has looked sharp through two MLB starts.

Buehler signed a one-year, $21.05MM deal with the Red Sox in the offseason, matching the value of the qualifying offer which the Dodgers neglected to put forth when he reached the open market. It was a relatively sizable bet on a pitcher who looked lost for much of the 2024 season — his first full year back from Tommy John surgery — before some short but memorable postseason heroics for Los Angeles.

So far, Buehler’s tenure with the Red Sox has produced pedestrian results. He’s sitting on a 4.28 ERA with better strikeout and walk rates than he had in 2024 but also a career-low 93.5 mph average fastball. And while his 20.7% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate are indeed improvements on last year’s marks (18.6 K%, 8.1 BB%), that strikeout rate is a far cry from his peak 29.2% when he was pitching like a bona fide ace and Cy Young contender.

Buehler heads to the injured list just days after Boston finally got right-hander Lucas Giolito healthy and into a regular season game. Giolito required UCL surgery last spring and missed all of the 2024 season and the first month of 2025 as a result. The Sox have also been without Kutter Crawford (knee) all year and have only received two starts from Brayan Bello.

Even with all the injuries, Red Sox starters rank 14th in the majors with a solid 3.91 ERA. Ideally, Buehler will rejoin the starting staff in a couple weeks, but if he requires a bit of a lengthier stay, Dobbins has looked up to the task of filling in. The 2021 eighth-rounder pitched 125 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A last year. In 11 major league frames this season, he’s held opponents to three earned runs (2.45 ERA) on 11 hits and a pair of walks with 11 strikeouts. In Dobbins’ most recent Triple-A start, he held the Mets’ top affiliate to a run four hits and two walks with three punchouts across six innings.

Red Sox Notes: Eovaldi, Zavala, Gambrell

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Nathan Eovaldi started for the Red Sox on Opening Day each year from 2020-22, pitching a combined 16 1/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA. Today, the Red Sox will face their former no. 1 starter on Opening Day, sending their new ace, Garrett Crochet, to the bump against Eovaldi and the Rangers.

Facing Eovaldi is never an enviable task – the right-hander has a winning record and an ERA under 4.00 in each of the past five seasons – but the Red Sox, in particular, probably aren’t thrilled to be meeting up with their old friend this afternoon. After all, they made an effort to re-acquire him this past offseason, and as it turns out, they were the runner-up for his services. According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, six teams showed legitimate interest in signing Eovaldi this winter, but the veteran’s decision ultimately came down to Texas or Boston. However, it’s not known how much money the Red Sox were willing to offer or if their final bid came close to the three-year, $75MM guarantee he landed with the Rangers.

Interestingly, Boston’s trade for Crochet came together less than 24 hours after Eovaldi signed with Texas. That’s not to say the Red Sox wouldn’t have pursued Crochet if they landed Eovaldi, but it’s a possibility worth considering. If that’s true, one could argue that missing out on Eovaldi was the best possible outcome for Craig Breslow and company. Eovaldi is a great pitcher, but Crochet is coming off an All-Star season and already looks like a strong early contender for the AL Cy Young.

Of course, the Red Sox would have been even better off with both Crochet and Eovaldi atop their rotation, especially now that so many of their other starters are on the IL, namely Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford. And while the Red Sox surely have high hopes for the free agents starters they added this offseason – Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval – Eovaldi would have been a far less risky signing.

In other Red Sox news, catcher Seby Zavala has accepted his outright assignment and will begin the season with the Triple-A WooSox, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The 31-year-old was informed last week that he would not be making the Opening Day roster. While the minor league deal he signed with Boston in November included an assignment clause that allowed him to seek out an opportunity on another team’s 40-man roster, it appears he was not able to find such an opportunity and has instead reported to Triple-A. A veteran of five big league seasons, Zavala is a plus defender with 183 games of MLB catching experience. He will offer the Red Sox depth behind starting catcher Connor Wong, backup Carlos Narvaez, and Blake Sabol, who has a spot on the 40-man roster but will start the season at Triple-A.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have released Grant Gambrell, a minor league right-handed starter (h/t to Christopher Smith of MassLive). Gambrell was one of five players Boston received in 2021 as part of the three-team trade that sent Andrew Benintendi to the Royals. The Red Sox initially acquired outfielder Franchy Cordero from Kansas City and right-hander Josh Winckowski from the Mets, while Gambrell was one of three players to be named later, along with fellow righty Luis De La Rosa and outfielder Freddy Valdez. As Smith points out, Winckowski is now the only player from that trade who is still playing in the Red Sox organization. Gambrell had pitched relatively well in Boston’s system over the past two years, putting up a 3.81 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 41 games (39 starts). However, he was never a top prospect, and now 27 years old, the Red Sox have evidently decided he does not fit into their future plans.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Red Sox Notes: Arenado, Casas, Bregman, Sasaki

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Reports last month from MLB.com’s John Denton indicated that the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, and Angels were six of the teams (and perhaps the only six teams) Nolan Arenado was willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, should the Cardinals work out an acceptable swap with any of these clubs.  Four weeks after that initial report, Boston remains “a preferred destination” for Arenado, according to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam.  What isn’t known, however, is if the Red Sox and Cardinals are anywhere close on a deal, or if the Sox are particularly motivated to bring Arenado to Beantown.

Acquiring Arenado would check a couple of big needs off of Boston’s offseason shopping list.  Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow reiterated earlier this week that the Sox were looking to add “a right-handed bat out of the middle of the lineup,” considering that the team is heavy with left-handed hitters.  Bringing one of the best defensive third basemen of all time to Fenway Park would instantly help Boston’s subpar infield defense, and Arenado would even be reunited with his good friend and former Rockies teammate Trevor Story.

One initial roadblock, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox already have a star third baseman in Rafael Devers.  Though Arenado has indicated that he is open to a position change in the right circumstance and Devers’ agent said in no uncertain terms in November that his client was staying at third base, it is hard to believe that Arenado would move off the hot corner in deference to a much weaker fielder in Devers.  If a trade did happen, Devers would presumably become the new first baseman or DH, though this creates other conflicts with Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida.

Both of those players, however, have been mentioned in trade talks this winter, and even in some of the same trade talks.  Casas is the far more valuable trade asset of the two, and while Breslow said “we’re certainly not shopping him,” that naturally doesn’t mean Casas is off limits.  Indeed, Cotillo and McAdam write that “there remains a belief in the industry that the Red Sox remain open to trading Casas, potentially for young pitching, to facilitate other roster maneuvering.”

It could be that the Sox are looking to first trade Casas before making any other moves, as their leverage in a Casas deal would be lessened if the Red Sox created a positional logjam beforehand.  Trading Casas purely as a vehicle to clear payroll space surely isn’t Breslow’s preference, which is why that aforementioned attempt to link Yoshida and Casas together was still part of an attempt to bring Luis Castillo from Seattle to Boston.

Payroll is also a major aspect of any Arenado trade, as the third baseman is owed $74MM over the remaining three seasons of his contract.  Between deferrals and the $10MM being covered by the Rockies, the present-day value of Arenado’s contract reportedly works out to $60MM.  The Cardinals’ chief incentive in trading Arenado is naturally to move as much of this money as possible, and the proposed deal with the Astros that Arenado blocked would’ve seen Houston take on either $45MM (as per Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of the Athletic) or $59MM (as per ESPN’s Jeff Passan) of the $60MM figure.

Theoretically, the Red Sox could absorb the entire contract and still stay under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, as RosterResource estimates Boston’s current tax number at just under $212MM.  It remains unclear exactly how much payroll capacity Breslow has been allotted this winter, as while the Sox have made overtures to several top free agents, their spending has been pretty modest to date.  The Red Sox could perhaps convince the Cardinals to take on a bigger chunk of Arenado’s salary (or at least closer to the $45MM figure) if better prospects are offered in return.  Chaim Bloom’s involvement in this speculative trade is an interesting wrinkle, as the incoming St. Louis president of baseball operations has plenty of knowledge of Boston’s farm system due to his past stint as the Red Sox CBO.

Trading for Arenado would come at a lesser overall cost than signing Alex Bregman, another top third baseman who remains on Boston’s radar.  That said, the Red Sox are known to still be in the running for Bregman, who has some notable ties to the Sox in manager Alex Cora (from their days together in Houston) and his longtime friend Walker Buehler, who just signed with the Sox himself before Christmas.  Buehler recently told Cotillo and other reporters that even in his brief time in a Sox uniform, “I have certainly made a pitch all over the place for [Bregman] to come to Boston.”

Turning to other Red Sox targets, it remains unknown if Boston is still one of the teams getting consideration from Roki Sasaki.  Earlier this week, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe updated reporters on his client’s search for a Major League team, and didn’t give any indication that the right-hander was finished with his in-person meetings with interested clubs.

The Red Sox weren’t one of the seven teams known to have spoken with Sasaki already, and word hasn’t broken if a meeting has been scheduled or perhaps it is has already taken place since Wolfe’s last presser.  As of yesterday, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported that the Sox hadn’t “been told they are out of” the running for Sasaki’s services, so the situation is still up in the air.

Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler

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TODAY: The breakdown of Buehler’s deal is provided by MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links), who reports that the contract also contains a $25MM mutual option for the 2026 season.  Buehler receives a $3.05MM signing bonus, $15MM in base salary, and then a $3MM buyout of the mutual option, totaling the aforementioned $21.05MM guarantee.

As much as $2.5MM in bonus money is also available.  Buehler will unlock the first $500K of that cash when he makes his 20th start of the season, and he’ll earn another $500K upon making his 22nd, 24th, 26th, and 28th starts of the season.

DEC. 28: The Red Sox officially announced the Buehler signing.

DEC. 23: The Red Sox are in agreement with right-hander Walker Buehler on a one-year deal worth $21.05MM, according to a report from Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports. The deal is pending a physical and includes incentives that could raise the value beyond that aforementioned figure. Buehler is an Excel Sports Management client.

It’s an interesting deal for Buehler, as the $21.05MM guarantee perfectly mirrors that of the Qualifying Offer. Both Buehler himself and Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta were considered borderline candidates to be extended the QO at the outset of the winter. Ultimately, the Dodgers declined to extend that offer to Buehler while the Red Sox did so for Pivetta but were rebuffed. From a financial and roster perspective, today’s deal allows Buehler to secure the same guarantee he would’ve gotten had the Dodgers extended him the QO while allowing Boston to add a veteran right-hander to its young rotation on a one-year deal that mirrors what they offered Pivetta last month.

The 30-year-old right-hander was among the league’s most talented young starters during his rookie season back in 2018, and pitched to an excellent 2.82 ERA (146 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in a four-season stretch from 2018-21. That stretch concluded with Buehler finishing fourth in NL Cy Young award voting behind Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Max Scherzer in a race that seemingly cemented his status as one of the league’s top aces. That career trajectory was thrown off the rails early in the 2022 season, however. Buehler pitched to a relatively pedestrian 4.02 ERA (101 ERA+) in 12 starts for the Dodgers that year before going on the injured list in June and ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery.

Buehler wouldn’t return to a major league mound until May of 2024, nearly two full years later, and struggled badly upon returning. Additional injuries limited Buehler to just 16 starts for the Dodgers this year, and even when he took the mound the right-hander struggled badly. In all, Buehler pitched to a 5.38 ERA (72 ERA+) with a 5.54 FIP in his final regular season in a Dodgers uniform. With that being said, the righty did manage to end his season on a positive note with a solid 3.60 ERA during the club’s run to the World Series championship this year. After a brutal start against the Padres in the NLDS, Buehler fired off ten scoreless frames between the NLCS and the World Series while striking out a third of his opponents.

That combination of a strong postseason, a terrible regular season, a fraught injury history, and a dominant track record made Buehler one of the most intriguing free agents on the market this winter and perhaps the ultimate high-risk, high-reward signing. To that end, it’s perhaps no surprise that he garnered interest from a huge number of teams. In addition to the Red Sox, Buehler also garnered interest from the Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Athletics, and Braves this winter. That wide-ranging interest made it apparent early in the winter that Buehler was likely to surpass the one-year, $15MM deal MLBTR predicted he would land as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Buehler was ranked as the #37 free agent this winter. It even seemed to open the door to the possibility the right-hander would be able to land a mutli-year deal with opt-outs; while he ultimately settled for a straight one-year pact, his $21.05MM salary in 2025 is likely much healthier than what he would’ve received on an annual basis on a multi-year deal.

For the Red Sox, the addition of Buehler adds another arm with plenty of upside to a rotation already full of it. If Buehler manages to rebound to the form he showed earlier in his career, he’ll form a daunting front two in the Boston rotation alongside lefty Garrett Crochet with right-handers Lucas Giolito and Tanner Houck joining them to create a formidable quartet. The additions of Crochet and Buehler have also significantly deepened the group, as right-handers Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell all figure to be in the conversation for starts as well after being key pieces of the club’s rotation last year. Further down the depth chart, the Red Sox also boast interesting upside plays Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer.

The addition of Buehler brings the club’s payroll for 2025 up to just over $175MM, according to RosterResource. The figure is substantially higher for luxury tax purposes, however, sitting just under $212MM. That leaves the club with about $29MM to work with before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. The Red Sox last surpassed that first threshold in 2022, but there’s been no indication from club brass that the first threshold represents a hard limit on their spending amid what has been a fairly busy offseason for the club. With the rotation seemingly solidified, it seems likely the club’s priorities will now shift towards adding a right-handed bat to their lineup, whether that comes in the form of an outfielder such as Teoscar Hernández or an infielder like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.

Red Sox Interested In Walker Buehler

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The Red Sox are known to be looking for starting pitching, with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow having said that he wants to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have been connected to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried as well as notable trade candidates like Garrett Crochet, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reports that Walker Buehler is another free agent they have interest in.

Whether Buehler would count as raising the ceiling would be a matter of debate at this point, as it’s been a few years since he was at his best over a meaningful stretch of time. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 564 innings for the Dodgers, allowing 2.82 earned runs per nine. He combined a 27.7% strikeout rate with a 6.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He also posted good results in 15 postseason starts for the Dodgers in that time.

But in 2022, he had an ERA of 4.02 before requiring Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. He missed the entire 2023 campaign and didn’t immediately bounce back this year. He only made 16 starts in 2024 and had rough results, most prominently a 5.38 ERA. His 18.6% strikeout rate was below league average and also far from his previous form.

He did finish things on a positive note, in a very small sample but on a very big stage. After getting lit up by the Padres in the NLDS, he went on to throw ten shutout innings over his final three appearances of the Dodgers’ World Series run. That included four shutty against the Mets in the NLCS, a five-inning start against the Yankees in the third game of the World Series, followed by the final three outs in game five.

Going into 2025, Buehler is an interesting risk/reward play. His previous upside is tantalizing but he’s been hurt or middling for the past few years. He did have that strong finish in the playoffs but most modern front offices won’t be swayed by such a small sample, even it was under the brightest lights in baseball.

That uncertainty means that Buehler could likely be had for a relatively low price, which could either turn into a bargain or a waste. The Dodgers declined to issue Buehler a $21.05MM qualifying offer at season’s end, evidently not valuing him worth that price point. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Buehler for a one-year deal with a $15MM, though the market for pitching has been stronger than expected, with mid-rotation or back-end guys like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes outearning their projections so far.

Despite the recent results, Buehler has proven to be quite popular this winter, having already drawn the interest of Atlanta, the A’s, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Tigers and now Red Sox. For Boston, they tried a buy-low move last year which hasn’t worked out so far. After a few rough years, they gave Lucas Giolito a fairly modest $38.5MM guarantee on a two-year deal but elbow surgery wiped out his 2024 season.

The injury is not really the fault of the Boston front office but Giolito was a risky choice even before that and it was generally expected they would target more surefire rotation upgrades this time around. The club’s decision makers have talked about being aggressive this winter and putting together a club capable of winning the division, even if that means paying the competitive balance tax.

RosterResource pegs the club’s CBT number at $181MM right now, about $60MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. That means they have plenty of room to go after top free agents like Burnes and Fried, but they are also at least considering a more modest strike for someone like Buehler, or perhaps a combination of the two.

The rotation currently projects to include Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello, with openings at the back. Giolito will be expected back at some point, though likely not at the start of the season. Guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester are on the roster but fairly unestablished and still optionable. Alongside Buehler, the Sox could consider other mid-rotation or back-end free agents such as Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.

Tigers Interested In Walker Buehler, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney

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It’s no secret the Tigers are looking to improve their rotation over the offseason, and three more potential targets for the team have emerged. According to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, the Tigers are showing interest in right-handers Walker Buehler and Kyle Gibson and left-hander Andrew Heaney.

Buehler is the biggest name of that trio. Although he’s coming off a difficult, injury-plagued season, he was an ace-caliber pitcher when last healthy in 2021. Indeed, from 2018-21, he pitched to 2.82 ERA and 3.56 SIERA over 564 innings. His 14.4 FanGraphs WAR ranked 14th among all pitchers in that time. Still just 30 years old and another year removed from Tommy John surgery, he is widely considered one of the top bounce-back candidates on the free agent market. It helps his case that he looked excellent in the postseason. After a rough outing in the NLDS, he pitched 10 scoreless innings between the NLCS and the World Series.

Precisely because Buehler comes with more upside than Gibson or Heaney, he could be looking for a longer-term commitment. The MLBTR staff predicted a one-year, $15 million contract for Buehler at the beginning of the offseason but noted that a two-year deal with an opt-out was a possibility. Petzold also remarked Buehler could be seeking a two-year deal with an opt-out this winter, and he suggested that might be more than the Tigers are willing to give. Ideally, they’re looking to offer a one-year deal.

In that case, Detroit could pivot to Gibson or Heaney. Of the two, Gibson seems more likely to sign a one-year contract. Both pitchers appeared on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list: Heaney at no. 25 and Gibson at no. 41. Our staff predicted a two-year, $24 million deal for Heaney and a one-year $13 million deal for Gibson. The slightly higher AAV prediction for Gibson reflects his longer track record of success, but at 37 years old, he’s unlikely to command a multi-year deal. Heaney, on the other hand, is young enough (he’ll turn 34 next June) that he could feasibly land a two-year commitment, especially on a market that has been quite kind to mid-tier starting pitchers thus far. Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Matthew Boyd all signed for more guaranteed money than MLBTR predicted.

Gibson and Heaney are both coming off similar 2024 seasons. Gibson made 30 starts with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA, while Heaney made 32 appearances (31 starts) with a 4.28 ERA and 3.95 SIERA. Heaney’s underlying numbers were a little promising – he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate – but Gibson has been significantly more consistent and durable throughout his career. Ultimately, both are capable back-of-the-rotation starters but not much more. Either would raise Detroit’s floor, but neither would do much to lift the team’s ceiling.

If a pitcher like Gibson or Heaney is the only starter the Tigers add, they’ll need to hope that some of their younger arms step up to help ace Tarik Skubal at the top of the rotation. That includes Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and potentially top prospect Jackson Jobe. More arms that could make up the rest of Detroit’s starting staff include Keider Montero, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda. In other words, this team isn’t short on back-end depth. What they could really use is a proven, postseason-caliber starter. However, such an acquisition seems far less likely. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon, the Tigers have “some interest” in a reunion with Jack Flaherty, but the word “some” speaks volumes in that report.

Ultimately, despite their postseason appearance in 2024, it seems as if the Tigers aren’t planning to be particularly aggressive this winter. As Petzold points out, their interest in signing a starter to a one-year deal mirrors their strategy from the previous two offseasons, in which they signed Michael Lorenzen and Flaherty. There’s no doubt it paid off in both cases; Lorenzen and Flaherty both pitched well over a few months with Detroit before they were flipped for prospects at the trade deadline. However, the Tigers were still in the middle of a rebuild when they signed Lorenzen ahead of the 2023 season and Flaherty ahead of ’24. That’s no longer the case, so it’s odd to see they’re still looking for stopgaps rather than trying to sign a more impactful pitcher to a multi-year deal.

In the same vein, Petzold suggests the Tigers are interested in first baseman Christian Walker but says they might back off if “big-market teams” are also bidding on his services. Moreover, Petzold adds that they are unlikely to sign any free agents who rejected a qualifying offer. Walker is among that group. While the Tigers have been linked to Alex Bregman, who also received a qualifying offer, Petzold writes that they would probably only pursue him if he were still available entering spring training and his price tag plummeted. As is the case with Walker, the Tigers are interested but not interested enough to enter a bidding war. In other words, it seems as if they’d only be willing to sign a QO free agent at a significant discount.

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