Padres Place Yu Darvish On Restricted List
The Padres finally announced their Opening Day roster on Wednesday evening. It more or less finalized a number of already known moves, though the biggest development is that starter Yu Darvish has been placed on the restricted list. Alden González of ESPN first reported that was the plan.
Darvish underwent elbow surgery last November. He won’t pitch at all in 2026. The expectation had been that he’d spend the season on the 60-day injured list. The Padres instead place him on the restricted list, which is for players who are under contract but are unavailable to play for various reasons. The restricted list is best known for its use when a player is suspended, though it’s more commonly briefly used when a player is away from the team for personal matters.
Players on the restricted list do not count against their clubs’ 40-man rosters, though that’s also true for those on the 60-day injured list. The more notable distinction is that teams are not required to pay players while they’re on the restricted list. It isn’t publicly known whether the team will continue paying Darvish any or all of his $15MM salary.
Of course, a team cannot place a player on the restricted list and avoid paying his contract merely because he suffered an injury. There’s surely more to this situation going on behind the scenes. There have been reports dating back to the end of last season about the sides negotiating some way to void the remaining three years on his deal. Darvish provided a statement in January, saying that he has not decided on retirement but confirming that the team, his camp, and the MLB Players Association have had conversations about terminating his contract. There hadn’t been any further updates on his situation until today.
His deal runs through 2028 and contains $43MM in remaining guarantees for his age 39-41 campaigns. The Padres would no doubt love to negotiate some kind of buyout or deferral plan that frees up short-term payroll space and lowers their luxury tax number. González points out that the still unsigned Lucas Giolito would be a sensible target for a team with questions in the back half of the rotation.
In 2024, Darvish agreed to a restricted list placement to attend to a family matter. He had previously been on the injured list at the time. The Padres offered to allow him to remain on the IL but Darvish opted to spend more than a month on the restricted list instead, voluntarily bypassing nearly $4MM in salary (link via Dennis Lin of The Athletic). The pitcher’s agent, Joel Wolfe, praised the team’s handling of the situation while noting that Darvish “just didn’t feel it was right to collect the money if he wasn’t fully committed to the rehab and coming back.”
There’ll presumably be an update from the team and/or Darvish’s representatives before long. The most immediate effect is that he’s off the 40-man roster. That’s a formality but was needed to officially select the contracts of Walker Buehler and Ty France, both of whom made the team last week.
San Diego placed seven more players on the injured list. Infielders Sung-Mun Song and Will Wagner went on the 10-day injured list, as both players are dealing with right oblique strains. Pitchers Jason Adam (recovery from left quad surgery), Griffin Canning (recovery from left Achilles surgery), Bryan Hoeing (flexor surgery), Joe Musgrove (elbow inflammation), Matt Waldron (which the team announced only as “surgery” after being a little more specific in February), and Yuki Matsui (left groin strain) all land on the 15-day injured list.
Adam was the only one of those players who held out hope of making the Opening Day roster. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reported on Monday that he’d open on the injured list. It’s mostly to buy time for Adam to continue building up, as he made just two appearances at the end of Spring Training. He should be back sometime in April. In the meantime, this allows the Padres to carry both hard-throwing rookie Bradgley Rodríguez and the out-of-options Ron Marinaccio on the Opening Day roster.
Padres To Select Walker Buehler
The Padres will carry Walker Buehler on their Opening Day roster, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. The veteran righty would have been able to request his release tomorrow if San Diego weren’t going to call him up.
Buehler locks in a $1.5MM base salary by breaking camp. His deal also includes up to $2.5MM in active roster bonuses. Acee writes that Buehler and Germán Márquez are expected to round out the season-opening starting five behind Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Randy Vásquez.
The Padres will be without Joe Musgrove for at least a couple weeks after he didn’t recover as hoped from a recent start. Griffin Canning is beginning the season on the injured list as he rehabs last summer’s Achilles tear. Canning threw one inning against Mariners’ minor leaguers on the back fields this afternoon, his first competitive work since the injury (via the MLB.com injury tracker). Matt Waldron, out of minor league options, is also a few weeks behind due to a hemorrhoid procedure. Yu Darvish will miss the entire season after last fall’s elbow surgery.
Buehler is coming off a second straight rough season. He was tagged for a 4.93 ERA with a career-worst 16.3% strikeout rate across 126 innings. He spent most of the year in Boston but was released in August. Buehler caught on with the Phillies to close the season before returning to the open market at year’s end. He had to settle for a minor league deal but found a good opportunity in San Diego given their rotation injuries.
The righty has pitched in three Cactus League games, allowing four runs with 13 strikeouts and four walks over 11 2/3 innings. Buehler has mixed six pitches but is only averaging 92-93 mph on his fastballs. He’ll probably pick up some velocity as he gets into the season. He has some work to do to match last year’s career-low 94 mph mark, to say nothing of the mid-upper 90s heat he had before undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in 2023.
Buehler isn’t the only veteran with an upcoming opt-out decision. Infielder Ty France can also get his release tomorrow if the Padres aren’t going to carry him on the roster. His minor league deal comes with a $1.35MM base salary. Acee writes that the team still hasn’t decided whether they’ll add France or fellow minor league signee Jose Miranda for that spot. Bryce Johnson is out of options and the favorite to win the fourth outfield role, while Nick Castellanos and Luis Campusano have bench spots secure.
France and Miranda have each had big performances this spring. The utility infield spot will go to Sung-mun Song once he’s back from an oblique strain. Intervening injuries could change the picture, but it’d be a cluttered bench no matter who the Padres tab to start the season. France has the service time to refuse any minor league assignment. Miranda is out of options and would need to go on waivers if the Padres try to send him back down after calling him up.
The Padres have one opening on the 40-man roster after waiving Daison Acosta a couple weeks ago. They’re essentially working with two additional free spots. Neither Darvish nor Bryan Hoeing has been moved to the 60-day injured list yet. They’re both out for the season.
In the bullpen, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays word from skipper Craig Stammen ruling lefty Yuki Matsui out for Opening Day. The southpaw suffered a left groin strain that kept him from pitching for Japan in the World Baseball Classic. He’ll begin the season on the 15-day IL but could be back in April.
Righty Jason Adam is making his Spring Training debut tonight. He’s trending towards opening on the active roster. Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta and Kyle Hart all seem assured of bullpen spots. If Adam is healthy, that’d leave one spot available. Ron Marinaccio is out of options and could be the favorite for that reason. Hard-throwing Bradgley Rodríguez impressed late last season, while the Padres have spoken highly of non-roster invitee Logan Gillaspie as a potential long reliever.
Joe Musgrove Likely To Open Season On Injured List
A Padres club already thin on rotation depth delivered some rough news for fans Monday, as manager Craig Stammen revealed that righty Joe Musgrove is expected to open the season on the injured list (video link via 97.3 The Fan). Musgrove hasn’t thrown in more than a week. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that he didn’t recover as well as hoped following an exhibition start against Great Britain’s World Baseball Classic club.
It’s an ominous update, though it’s worth noting that Stammen didn’t suggest there had been a setback of any note. Musgrove hasn’t pitched since the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery that cost him the entirety of the 2025 campaign.
“He’s most likely going to start on the IL this year,” Stammen said Monday morning. “We’re getting to the point where he’s taken enough time off that it’d be hard to ramp him up to get him to be a viable starter that could throw five innings, 90 pitches. … This was part of the plan. We knew he was going to have to take some time off. We knew we were going to have get him ready for the entire season and not just Opening Day.”
Getting a healthy Musgrove back in the fold will be key to the Padres’ chances at contending this season. San Diego’s rotation depth has thinned over the past year. Yu Darvish is injured and contemplating retirement. Dylan Cease became a free agent. Righties Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert were traded to the Royals last summer. Prospects Braden Nett and Henry Baez were sent to the Athletics as part of the Mason Miller trade.
A healthy Musgrove is arguably the Padres’ best pitcher. From 2021-24, the now-33-year-old righty gave his hometown club 559 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, fanning a sharp 25.5% of opponents against a terrific 6.1% walk rate. Musgrove doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting a bit north of 93 mph with his heater, but he has good command and induces both chases off the plate and swinging strikes at league-average or slightly better rates.
It’s always been fair to wonder how many innings the Padres can reasonably expect from Musgrove after a layoff of nearly 18 months. The uncertainty surrounding his workload is one of many pressing questions about San Diego’s starting staff.
The Padres now enter the year with Michael King (also coming off an injury-truncated season) and Nick Pivetta locked into spots. Randy Vásquez and free-agent pickup Germán Márquez are both likely to be in the starting five as well, though Márquez has been shelled this spring coming off his own worrying return from UCL surgery in Colorado. In 6 2/3 innings, he’s allowed nine runs on 10 hits and four walks. Vásquez posted a solid 3.84 ERA in 133 2/3 innings last season but did so with the third-worst strikeout rate (13.7%) of any pitcher in MLB (min. 100 innings pitched). Metrics like SIERA (5.43) and xFIP (5.51) both pegged him bottom-two in that same subset.
Options to fill out the rotation behind King, Pivetta, Vásquez and Márquez are fairly suspect. Left-hander JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t seemed to have the confidence of the organization since coming over alongside Miller in that aforementioned trade. The Friars gave him only five starts last year despite the fact that he’d been a staple in the Athletics’ rotation. He spent the rest of his time with the organization in Triple-A last summer, and Sears has had very rough spring (8.44 ERA in 10 2/3 innings). Righty Matt Waldron is also on the 40-man roster but is behind in camp and could start on the IL himself. San Diego also signed Griffin Canning in free agency, but he’s a lock to open on the IL as he finishes rehabbing last year’s ruptured Achilles tendon.
In all likelihood, the Padres will need to break camp with at least one non-roster invitee in the rotation (barring further additions). Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are the most prominent names to have signed minor league deals this offseason. None of the three have pitched well this spring. Buehler is the only one who’s allowed fewer runs than innings pitched (four runs on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts in 6 2/3 frames).
Given the lackluster options and the nature of their early schedule, the Padres may not even fill Musgrove’s rotation spot at all. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres could open the season with a four-man rotation. Acee calls King, Pivetta and Vásquez locks, adding that Buehler has “likely” earned a spot, while Márquez’s spring struggles have at least created some doubt about his ability to handle the job.
San Diego has a pair of off-days within the first eight days of the season. That’ll allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation twice in their first ten games. The Padres’ bullpen is among the deepest and most talented in the sport, too, so even when they finally do need a fifth starter, they could opt for a bullpen game while awaiting Musgrove to get into game shape. Someone like Márquez or Sears could open a bullpen game and perhaps navigate the opposing lineup once before turning over to the bullpen.
There’s no obvious answer in sight at the moment, which will make the final week-plus of camp worth watching with a careful eye. Each of Márquez, Sears, Buehler and Gonzales should have another appearance or two to try to stake a claim to the job, and ever-active president of baseball ops A.J. Preller could always try to creatively bring in another arm. One of the remaining free agents (e.g. Lucas Giolito, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin) probably wouldn’t have time to ramp up for the season, but there will be plenty of names hitting waivers or being granted their release from minor league deals over the final few days of camp.
Padres Notes: Sale, Rotation, Infield
The Padres are for sale and they seem to be making progress on that front. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the field of potential buyers has been narrowed from five to four and that the process could be complete by April. Both Acee and Jeff Passan of ESPN report that the sale price is expected to exceed $3 billion.
The Seidler family announced in November that they would be pursuing a sale of the franchise. At that time, it appeared some squabbling within the family could hamper those efforts but reporting in February indicated that some of the legal bumps had been smoothed out and that five prospective buyers had submitted bids. It appears that one of the groups has been removed from the bidding, though Acee doesn’t specify who’s out and who’s still in.
If the price does indeed go beyond $3 billion, that would easily set a new benchmark. The highest sale price for an MLB franchise to date is the $2.4 billion Steve Cohen plonked down to purchase the Mets in 2020.
Turning to the roster, it seems increasingly likely that Joe Musgrove will start the season on the injured list. The righty is looking to get back on the mound after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2025 season. It was reported three days ago that Musgrove was being brought along slowly in camp. Acee reported yesterday that Musgrove still hasn’t thrown again in the past few days. He pitched three innings in an exhibition game on March 4th but didn’t recover as hoped and has only thrown one bullpen session since then.
The Padres say they are being cautious, with manager Craig Stammen referring to it as a “holding pattern” and a “pause” for Musgrove as they make sure he’s ready to proceed to the next step. “Waiting to kind of get over that hump, feel a little bit better before we start doing anything out on the field,” Stammen said. “But still in a good spot, still something we knew was going to happen, had to prepare for. We’ve got his best interest in mind.”
Even if there’s nothing serious going on, Opening Day is two weeks away, so each day with no progress increases the chances of an IL stint. The Padres are set to open the season with Michael King, Nick Pivetta and Randy Vásquez in three rotation spots. Acee pegs Germán Márquez and Walker Buehler as the favorites for the final two spots, assuming Musgrove hits the IL. Márquez is already on the 40-man roster but Buehler doesn’t yet have a spot. He can opt out of his deal at the end of camp if he doesn’t have one.
Whatever the Friars do for Opening Day will be temporary. Musgrove will be back in the mix at some point. Matt Waldron is behind schedule due to hemorrhoid surgery but is ramping up now. He is expected to start the season on the IL but shouldn’t miss too much time. He is out of options so the Friars would have to find a spot for him on the active roster or bump him off the 40-man. Griffin Canning will also be looking to rejoin the rotation at some point, likely a few weeks later than Musgrove and Waldron.
On the infield, Sung Mun Song is trying to work through a nagging right oblique issue. He may open the season on the injured list, which could have opened a bench spot for someone like Will Wagner. Unfortunately, Acee relays that Wagner is dealing with an oblique strain of his own and has not done any baseball activity since the start of March. He will almost certainly join Song on the IL to start the year. That could increase the chances of someone like Ty France or Mason McCoy getting an Opening Day spot.
Like Buehler, France can opt out of his deal at the end of camp if he’s not added to the 40-man. The Friars opened a spot this week by outrighting Daison Acosta but would need one more if they select both Buehler and France. That won’t be hard. Yu Darvish and Bryan Hoeing are both expected to miss the 2026 season due to surgeries and neither has been moved to the 60-day IL yet.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
Latest On Padres’ Rotation
The Padres entered camp with Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove penciled into the top three rotation spots. They felt reasonably confident that Randy Vásquez would claim the fourth starter role. They took a volume approach to the fifth starter job, signing a handful of veterans to cheap free agent deals.
Musgrove is working back from a 2024 Tommy John surgery that wiped out all of last season. King was limited to 15 starts last year by a nerve issue in his shoulder and a knee injury. While King is pitching without any restrictions this spring, the Padres are playing things more cautiously with Musgrove. The righty last pitched in a game on March 4, when he threw 60 pitches in an exhibition game against the British World Baseball Classic team.
Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Musgrove has thrown one bullpen session within the past week. The Padres are understandably bringing him along slowly and haven’t announced when he’ll make his next game appearance. Both Acee and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com suggest he may not be fully built up by Opening Day.
A brief season-opening injured list stint wouldn’t necessarily represent a setback. The Padres will need to keep an eye on Musgrove’s workload over the course of the season. They have two off days within the first eight days of the regular season, meaning they could theoretically get by with a four-man rotation if Musgrove had a minimal IL stint. The likelier outcome is that they’d turn to one of their depth starters to fill out a five-man starting staff.
That could open an opportunity for Walker Buehler, who is in camp as a non-roster invite. If there’s only one rotation spot available, that’s likelier to go to Germán Márquez. Márquez signed a big league contract and is guaranteed $1.75MM. He’s going to make the team, and the Padres don’t have a ton of roster flexibility in the bullpen to carry him as a long reliever.
Buehler can opt out at the end of Spring Training if the Padres don’t add him to the roster. Buehler has made two starts this spring. He has allowed four runs in 6 2/3 innings with a solid 6:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Márquez has recorded five punchouts without a walk while allowing three runs across five frames. Marco Gonzales, in camp on a minor league deal, has given up five runs despite recording eight strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but has had a rough spring and has a minor league option remaining, so he’s probably ticketed for Triple-A El Paso regardless of Musgrove’s status.
Latest On Padres’ Bullpen Outlook
Padres right-hander Jason Adam has been targeting the Opening Day roster as he finished off his rehab from last year’s torn tendon in his quadriceps. The right-hander said three weeks back that team doctors hadn’t told him “no” on the possibility yet, and Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Adam could get back into games soon. He’s been ahead of schedule in camp and is slated for one final simulated game this week before a likely Cactus League debut on the weekend.
The 34-year-old Adam is a major piece of a deep San Diego bullpen. Over the past four seasons, he’s worked to a 2.07 ERA with 92 holds, 24 saves, a 29.2% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate across 256 2/3 innings between the Rays and Padres. If healthy, he’d join Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada as one of closer Mason Miller‘s top setup options.
A healthy Adam also leads to a relatively crowded bullpen that could force the Friars into some tough decisions. Miller, Estrada, Morejon and Adam would be locks for bullpen spots. That’s presumably true of righty David Morgan (2.64 ERA, 47 1/3 innings in 2025) as well. Lefties Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui are pitching on multi-year contracts and can’t be optioned.
That group accounts for seven of the Padres’ eight bullpen spots. Right-hander Ron Marinaccio is out of minor league options. Right-hander Bradgley Rodriguez has multiple option years left but has excelled in camp after impressing in a brief look last year. Righty Matt Waldron might start the season on the injured list, but he’s out of minor league options as well and would need to be added to the big league roster or designated for assignment. Bryan Hoeing is shut down with an elbow issue right now.
Having more talented relievers than bullpen spots available is obviously a nice problem to have, all things considered, and depending on the injury timetables of Adam and a couple teammates, the Friars might be able to kick any 40-man decisions down the road a bit for the early portion of the season. At some point, something will have to give on one of the players who can’t be sent down (whether due to contract or lack of minor league options.
That’s especially true if the Padres want to consider breaking camp with any non-roster invitees on the big league club. Veterans Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are among that group, but manager Craig Stammen has been talking up the chances of a different former big leaguer for a potential bullpen job: right-hander Logan Gillaspie.
“He just goes out there, competes his tail off, lot of energy and enthusiasm, throws a ton of strikes and gets a lot of outs,” manager Craig Stammen told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell when asked about Gillaspie. He noted that Gillaspie could be used in a multi-inning role, providing some length early in games if necessary.
The 28-year-old Gillaspie has pitched in each of the past four major league seasons, including 18 innings for San Diego across the 2024-25 campaigns. He’s had pedestrian results overall, but Gillaspie is a familiar hand for many Padres coaches and is in the midst of a strong spring training (7 2/3 shutout frames, 8-to-2 K/BB ratio). Cassavell suggests that Gillaspie is viewed as having a real chance to make the club, particularly if the Padres open the season with multiple veterans on the injured list.
How Will The Padres Round Out Their Rotation?
Barring injury, the Padres will open the season with an established top three in their rotation. Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove have the upside to be one of the best top halves in the National League.
Musgrove is coming back from Tommy John surgery, while King was limited to 74 1/3 innings last year (playoffs included) by a nerve issue in his shoulder and left knee inflammation. They’re free of any restrictions this spring. Musgrove will make his exhibition debut tomorrow against Great Britain in a World Baseball Classic tune-up. King has already started two games this spring.
The picture is a lot less clear from there. Yu Darvish will miss the entire season. Free agent pickup Griffin Canning has yet to pitch this spring as he works back from last June’s Achilles tear. He’s very likely starting the season on the injured list.
That’s also true of knuckleballer Matt Waldron, though it could be close to a minimal IL stay for the right-hander. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote yesterday that Waldron plans to throw off a mound this week and is hopeful of getting a start in before the end of Cactus League play. He won’t be built up enough to start the season on the active roster, however. Waldron is out of options, so the Padres will need to carve out an MLB spot for him once he’s ready or risk losing him via trade or waivers.
That all but ensures that Randy Vásquez will get a season-opening rotation spot. Manager Craig Stammen said at the beginning of camp that the righty had a leg up on a job. Vásquez is out options and needed to make the team in some capacity. He outperformed mediocre peripherals for most of last season but improved his strikeout rate to a league average level in September. He finished last season with a 3.86 ERA across 133 2/3 innings.
It probably leaves the Padres will one spot to fill. The front office has taken a volume approach to the back of the roster, adding a handful of veterans on cheap one-year deals or minor league contracts to see who sticks. They added enough options that it’s not out of the question they open with a six-man rotation.
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla left open that possibility over the weekend, although he implied they preferred a five-man group (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Niebla said the team is preparing the starters on a usual five-day routine. If multiple depth arms pitch their way onto the roster, they could go to a six-man staff, but that requires dropping to a seven-man bullpen.
If there’s only one spot available, Germán Márquez enters camp as the favorite. The former Rockies righty signed a $1.75MM deal in mid-February. His spot on the MLB roster feels secure, which isn’t the case for non-roster invitees Walker Buehler or Marco Gonzales. Márquez could theoretically pitch in long relief if one of Buehler or Gonzales beats him for the fifth starter role. That scenario (or a six-man rotation) probably wouldn’t bode well for out-of-options reliever Ron Marinaccio’s bid to stick on the roster.
Lefty JP Sears is also in the rotation mix, though San Diego’s series of veteran additions means it’s likelier he’s headed back to Triple-A. Sears was hit hard in five MLB starts after being acquired from the A’s in the Mason Miller trade. He still has a minor league option remaining.
Sears also hasn’t an especially encouraging start to camp, giving up five runs on seven hits (including two homers) across 3 2/3 innings. Márquez allowed three runs on four hits over two innings in his exhibition debut over the weekend. Gonzales, who missed all of last season rehabbing flexor surgery, has given up five runs across 4 2/3 frames over two spring starts. Buehler hasn’t pitched in an official Spring Training game but took on the KBO’s NC Dinos in an outing on the back fields over the weekend, giving up two runs over three innings.
Three Starting Pitchers Looking To Bounce Back In 2026
Many teams added to their rotations this offseason. Some opted to raise their ceiling by signing big-name free agents. The Blue Jays brought in Dylan Cease, the Red Sox signed Ranger Suarez, and the Tigers added Framber Valdez, to name a few. Others tried to maintain their floor by retaining existing starters and acquiring depth. The Padres fit the latter mold, as they brought in Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, and Walker Buehler on low-cost deals this week.
While starting pitchers aren’t quite as volatile as relievers, injuries and underperformance still led many to post tough seasons in 2025. Tonight, we take a look at three bounce-back candidates: a top free agent, a veteran starter, and a minor-league signing.
Top Free Agent: Zac Gallen
Gallen has been a front-of-the-rotation arm at his best. From 2022-23, he posted a 3.04 ERA in 394 innings for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 26.4% of hitters in that span and ranked eighth among qualified starters with a 20.4% K-BB rate. His 9.3 fWAR ranked sixth ahead of Giants ace Logan Webb. Entering his age-28 season in 2024, there was reason to believe Gallen would continue to pitch at his prime level.
His numbers that year were still solid, if a step down from ace territory. Gallen missed a month with a right hamstring strain but still made 28 starts with a 3.65 ERA. He actually upped his groundball rate from 41.8% in 2023 to 46.2% in 2024. That said, his strikeout and walk rates both trended in the wrong direction, the latter now closer to average after two years of excellent control. Gallen slipped further in 2025. Though he stayed healthy and covered 192 innings in 33 starts, his ERA jumped to a career-high 4.83, his first below-average mark since 2021. The strikeouts slipped further to 21.5%, while his expected stats (4.28 xERA) suggest he was better than the surface numbers, but not by much.
Gallen entered the offseason as a buy-low candidate, as far as former aces go. We at MLBTR projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract even after his down year. In the end, his market didn’t develop as hoped. Gallen settled for a one-year, $22.025MM reunion with Arizona that nominally matched the value of the team’s qualifying offer in November.
Obviously, the team would love to see him return to his 2022-23 form. At the very least, Gallen figures to provide 30 starts of mid-rotation production, though he’ll undoubtedly aim for more in hopes of securing a multi-year contract next time around. The key for Gallen will be refining his breaking pitches, which graded out poorly in 2025 by Statcast’s run value metric. His curveball was worth 15 runs above average in 2024, but that fell to -4 this year, with opponents slugging over .200 more on the pitch. He’ll also look to bring up the strikeouts and keep the ball in the yard, having allowed the third-most home runs (31) of any qualified starter in 2025.
Veteran Starter: Sean Manaea
Manaea re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75MM deal during the 2024-25 offseason. At the time, he was coming off a strong 3.47 ERA in 181 2/3 innings in his return to full-time starting pitching (having mostly been a reliever for the Giants in 2023). With New York in 2024, Manaea struck hitters out at a 24.9% clip and did a decent job at keeping the ball in the yard compared to his career numbers. His .249 BABIP suggested he benefitted from good luck, but even so, he figured to provide solid, mid-rotation value on his new deal.
Unfortunately, his 2025 season was the exact opposite of his 2024. Manaea went down with a right oblique strain in March and missed the first three and a half months of the season. At one point, he experienced a setback when the team found loose bodies in his throwing elbow. Finally debuting on July 13, he made 15 appearances (12 starts) with a 5.64 ERA. Curiously, he posted that high ERA despite striking out a career-best 28.5% of hitters and walking a career-low 4.6%. Meanwhile, his expected stats (4.00 xERA and 3.30 xFIP) painted a much better picture than his surface-level numbers.
On the other hand, Manaea struggled badly with the long ball in 2025, allowing 13 in just 60 2/3 innings (1.93 HR/9). He also curiously ditched his sinker, which was worth 10 runs above average in 2024, to instead throw his four-seamer over 60% of the time. Opponents slugged .129 higher against the four-seamer compared to 2024, when he used it half as much. Manaea also upped his sweeper usage but saw diminished results, including a 9.6% drop in strikeout rate and a .148 increase in slugging.
Perhaps that was a mechanical problem. Manaea adopted a lower arm slot in 2024 and had a very productive second half. The combination of his oblique injury and further attempted mechanical adjustments may have contributed to his poor 2025 numbers, per Mets manager Carlos Mendoza (link via Alex Smith of SNY). The keys for him in 2026 will be regaining his pre-injury mechanics, differentiating the two fastballs like he did in 2024, and continuing to get chases on the sweeper.
Minor-League Signing: Walker Buehler
The current version of Buehler is far from the one who finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2021. The now 31-year-old has pitched 266 1/3 innings since the end of that campaign. He missed all of 2023 while recovering from August 2022 Tommy John surgery. He returned for 16 starts in 2024, but the results were decidedly poor. Buehler struck out just 18.6% of hitters against an 8.1% walk rate and allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings. His once-vaunted four-seamer was now his least valuable pitch at 13 runs below average. Buehler pitched well in the postseason for the World Series-winning Dodgers, though. The Red Sox then took a chance on a one-year, $21.05MM deal.
Unfortunately, 2025 was not kind to him either. Buehler pitched 126 innings in 26 appearances (24 starts) with a 4.93 ERA. His velocity was down on every pitch except his slider. His strikeout rate fell to just 16.3%, while his 5.5% K-BB rate was fifth-worst among starters with at least 100 innings pitched. Boston released him at the end of August. Though he did alright in a small sample with the Phillies after that, it was clear that Buehler wouldn’t do nearly as well on the market this time around.
Now competing for a back-of-the-rotation spot in San Diego, Buehler will have to work hard to regain some value. He could start with adjusting his pitch mix. He has already steadily decreased his four-seam usage as it continues to lose velocity. Meanwhile, Buehler’s sinker was well-regarded by Statcast in 2025, grading out as 6 runs above average. Making the sinker his primary fastball might help him evolve into a soft-contact, groundball pitcher. His hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity were in the 70th percentile or better in 2025, so building on that might be his best path to prolonging his career.
Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images
Padres, Walker Buehler Agree To Minor League Deal
February 17th: According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Buehler will make $1.5MM if added to the roster and could also access performance bonuses worth $2.5MM on the deal.
February 16th: The Padres are adding Walker Buehler on a minor league contract, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. The Excel Sports Management client will aim to win a rotation job during Spring Training.
San Diego continues to stockpile potential back-end starters. The Padres agreed to big league deals with Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez over the weekend. Buehler settles for a non-roster invitation, which seemingly puts him behind the other two veteran righties as camp gets underway. Canning is coming back from a June Achilles tear. He might begin the season on the injured list but should be in the rotation once he’s healthy.
The Friars have three locks for the Opening Day rotation: Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove. First-year skipper Craig Stammen implied last week that righty Randy Vásquez has a leg up on the fourth starter role after a solid finish last year. Márquez, Canning (if healthy) and JP Sears are the top options on the 40-man roster for the fifth starter job. Matt Waldron also remains on the 40-man but is out of options and coming off a rough season in Triple-A. Buehler joins Triston McKenzie and Marco Gonzales among the non-roster invitees.
A two-time All-Star, Buehler was a borderline ace for most of his time with the Dodgers. He hasn’t been the same since undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in 2022. The surgery cost him the entire ’23 season, and he returned with a 5.38 ERA across 16 regular season starts the following year. Buehler pitched well in the postseason and wound up closing out the 2024 World Series. The Red Sox bet that was the beginning of a return to form, but his $21.05MM free agent deal with Boston was a disappointment.
Buehler was rocked for a 5.45 ERA across 23 appearances with the Red Sox. They flirted with a move to the bullpen before pulling the plug altogether, releasing him at the end of August. Buehler latched on with the Phillies and made three appearances to close the regular season. While he tossed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball in Philadelphia, he only struck out eight of 57 batters faced (14%).
Opponents destroyed his four-seam fastball, hitting .277 with a .553 slugging percentage against the pitch. Buehler’s 94 mph average velocity was down a tick from the previous season and almost three miles per hour below where it had been between 2019-20. The spin rates on his four-seam fastball and knuckle-curve have dropped precipitously since his peak. He has had a much more difficult time missing bats, both within and outside the strike zone. Hitters have done a better job laying off stuff outside the zone, leading to a career-high 10.8% walk rate last season.
Although the trend lines aren’t encouraging, Buehler is only 31 and still has league average velocity. The Padres aren’t committed to a roster spot or a guaranteed salary, so there’s no harm in gauging his form during Spring Training. It should be mostly an open competition for at least one rotation spot.
Buehler might not begin the season in Triple-A if he doesn’t win the job. He was an Article XX(b) free agent — a player with six years of service time who finished last season on an MLB roster. Those players who sign minor league deals at least 10 days before Opening Day have a trio of opt-out dates under the collective bargaining agreement: five days before Opening Day, May 1, and June 1. Buehler can trigger an out clause and explore other opportunities during the final week of Spring Training if the Padres don’t commit to carrying him on the active roster.
Phillies Designate Matt Manning For Assignment
TODAY: Alvarado’s forearm strain will end his season, manager Rob Thomson told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber and other media. The injury is “mild” overall, Thomson said, and surgery isn’t a consideration.
SEPTEMBER 12: The Phillies announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Walker Buehler and placed left-hander Jose Alvarado on the 15-injured list, moves which were previously reported. Alvarado’s injury wasn’t specified in that earlier reporting but the Phils announced it as a left forearm strain, retroactive to September 11th. The severity is still unclear. To open a 40-man spot for Buehler, righty Matt Manning has been designated for assignment.
Manning, 27, has never thrown a pitch for the Phillies at the big league level. He was designated for assignment by the Tigers on the day of this summer’s trade deadline and quickly flipped to the Phils, with minor league outfielder Josueth Quinonez heading the other way. Manning didn’t pitch for a month after being acquired. It’s unclear if that was due to an injury or if his new team was having him work on some kind of mechanical adjustment.
He recently returned to the mound in the minors. He made two starts for Double-A Reading in the past two weeks, logging five innings combined with six earned runs allowed. He struck out eight and allowed just three hits but gave out seven walks, hit one batter and also threw two wild pitches.
Since he’s been bumped off the 40-man roster after the trade deadline, he’ll be on the waiver wire in the coming days. If he garners any interest, it would be based on his past pedigree. The Tigers took him with the ninth overall pick in the 2016 draft. He was ranked as one of the top prospects in the league for several years after that but hasn’t been able to deliver on that potential. From 2021 to 2024, he tossed 254 innings for Detroit with a 4.43 ERA. His 7.8% walk rate was good but he only struck out 16.4% of batters faced.
The Tigers kept him in the minors this year. He tossed 50 2/3 innings on the farm with a 6.04 ERA. He struck out 22.4% of opponents but also gave out walks at a 15.9% clip. The Phils tried to buy low on him but that doesn’t seem to have worked out.
Manning is in his final option year and will therefore be out of options starting next year. That will make it harder for him to keep a roster spot going forward. Given his past status as a top prospect, perhaps some club grabs him off the wire now. If some team does take a flier on him and manages to keep him on the roster, Manning can be controlled for four seasons after this one.
Photo courtesy of Mike Watters, Imagn Images