In an upcoming edition of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast, veteran reliever Joe Kelly told host Rob Bradford (X link) that he isn’t yet planning to retire, and that the right-hander is aiming to return next season and pitch in what would be his 14th Major League campaign.
While there hadn’t been any particular indication that Kelly was thinking of calling it a career, it was fair to wonder about his future considering his recent injury history. Kelly was limited to 35 games and 32 innings for the Dodgers this season due to recurring shoulder problems, most prominently a right posterior strain that put him on the injured list for about 2.5 months. The right-hander then missed a little under three weeks during another IL stint due to shoulder soreness, and missed out on the Dodgers’ playoff run after (according to manager Dave Roberts) tweaking his shoulder during a simulated game in early October. Kelly did tell Bradford that he thought he might get inserted onto the World Series roster if the Fall Classic had gone to a Game 6, perhaps due to another injury within the Dodgers’ bullpen.
Kelly has now visited the IL on ten separate occasions over the last five seasons, due to a variety of both arm-related (shoulder, elbow inflammation, nerve problem in his bicep) issues and other maladies like a groin strain or a hamstring strain. The longest of these IL stints was this season’s trip to the 60-day IL for the shoulder strain, but the sheer number of knocks clearly makes durability a big concern for Kelly as he heads into his age-37 season.
Unsurprisingly, Kelly’s performance has tended to fluctuate pretty wildly amidst all these injuries. He has a 4.21 ERA over 162 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, with a strong 29.4% strikeout rate but also an 11.2% walk rate. Kelly had this same walk rate during the 2024 season, though only with a 24.5K% and a 4.78 ERA in his 32 frames. Most of his Statcast metrics were below average, yet Kelly can still bring elite velocity with his 98.1 mph fastball.
That eye-popping heater will still surely get Kelly some looks from interested teams in free agency this winter, though landing anything beyond a one-year contract would count as a surprise. Kelly’s past forays into the open market have netted some healthy contracts — a three-year, $25MM pact with the Dodgers in December 2018, then a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the start of the 2022 season. That latter contract contained a $9.5MM club option for 2024 that the Dodgers (who re-acquired Kelly at the 2023 trade deadline) declined, though they then re-signed Kelly on a one-year, $8MM pact for 2024.
Returning to L.A. on a lower salary could certainly be in the cards, as there is some obvious fondness between the two sides and Kelly would surely love a crack at a fourth World Series ring. Beyond the Dodgers, pretty much any team in need of extra bullpen velo could consider Kelly in the hopes that he is due for another bounce-back year, even with the caveat that is seems unlikely he’d avoid the injured list for an entire season.
Joe Kelly Fight Club Lives On!!
Fight club??? lol more like run and hide in the dugout while he cries club. Biggest baby in baseball history.
If you were a Red Sox fan you’d understand
You dont have to be a red sox fan to either. We all saw he provoked correa, then once benches cleared, correa was still on the field while Kelly went to the dugout.
His fight club should be called “No Màs” courtesy of what Roberto Durán said to Sugar Ray.
@coup- It has nothing to do with Correa lol that wasn’t a fight nor was he trying to provoke a fight in that scenario. It’s from his brawl with Tyler Austin.
he flat out took on the entire Yankee bench in 2018. the dude drinks free if I’m there.
Except he stayed away from Judge and Stanton…. Coincidentally.
That’s no coincidence lol I’m not sure who in their right mind would take on those guys.
Yeah we all know how it started, but after the correa thing we all know it was just posturing.
The dude just wants to go on podcasts and get likes and subs to keep his career in the news to compensate for his shaky skills and career.
Come on back to Boston Joe just for S&:ts and giggles!!!
He’s made over $60MM in a career of nothing special.
Nah! He brought special frequently.
He’s like the reliever version of Bronson Arroyo
Pete – How so? Those two guys are polar opposites in every way … personality, durability, performance, pitching style, etc.
I’m saying they both made a lot of money being mediocre pitchers.
Don’t forget the free Porsche his wife got from Ohtani for jersey number. Kelly has been disappointing especially due to injuries and command issues. He’s done well for himself financially. Only fraction of a chance I see him back is on a heavy incentive contract with low base. But we’ve likely seen the last of him.
He’s probably too expensive for Hoyer/Ricketts.
He got 8 million from the Dodgers for 2024, he’s probably looking for something like 6 or 7 million on a one-year deal. That’s too high for Hoyer, it’d have to be like 4 or 5 million in my opinion.
I doubt that Kelly gets $6 or $7 million guaranteed.
He’s 36 coming off a season when he was injured and pitched at replacement level (4.78 ERA / 4.57 FIP) in the 32 innings that he did pitch.
I remember when he promised Boston he would win the Cy next season and he never made it out of spring training.
At this point, I really hope the Dodgers move on. His command is awful on top of the injury concerns. What good is “velo” if there’s bad command? Dude doesn’t have it any more and signing him is a waste of a roster spot in my opinion.
True. His performance this season was, either extremely good, or extremely flop. Too inconsistent IMHO
Erratic has always been Kelly’s trademark. Even when he averaged out better earlier in his career, the highs and lows were pretty outstanding. I never understood Andy Friedman’s interest in him, but we know it’s there, so my prediction is the Dodgers offer him a minor league contract and invitation next year. I doubt he gets a guarantee from anyone.
Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson made velo+bad command work for a long time.
Sorry but you can’t compare HOF starting pitchers to reliever Kelly. Kelly is too inconsistent and injured. The Dodgers can find a more durable and younger relief arm.
Trolley,
I wasn’t trying to directly compare Kelly to the Ryan Express and the Big Unit, just pointing out that huge velo can work despite bad command.
Ahh ok, I get it. I was gonna say! The comparison was too much of a stretch. I agree that it can work depending on the pitcher. Kelly is all over the place, throwing 99 into the dirt or way outside. Hitters aren’t scared of him at all.
Yeah, no comparison. Kelly should be proud of his accomplishments – a long MLB career is quite rare – but his path to the HOF includes a stop at the ticket booth.
Have to agree that even at a deeply discounted salary he’s not worth a roster spot. They can find better value elsewhere.
I hope the Dodgers do the right thing, the smart thing. It’s time to move on from Joe Kelly, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, James Outman & Michael Grove. Only Lux maybe Muncy can return something of significant value.
dodger – I wouldn’t be surprised if Kenley and/or Martin return to the Dodgers.
What do you have against Muncy? He’ll provide 30+ homers a year while on a team friendly deal.
CT3 has little to no trade value, so I imagine that they would need to attach a prospect to get rid of him. I’d rather not do that.
Kelly and Grove can go.
It’s too early to give up on Outman and Lux. Both are Pre-Arb, and have flashed brilliance at times.
Mostly agree on this post. Spot on for Muncy and Taylor, as well as Kelly and Grove. I have my doubts about Outman. He just doesn’t make enough contact and confidence level as low as you can get. Odds are definitely against him, but no reason to get rid of him now. Similar for Lux but even more sense of urgency. 2025 is probably the make it or break it season for him.
Keep in mind that this was Lux’s first season coming off a major season ending injury + multiple surgeries.
Remember in His last full season in MLB before 24 he hit over .300. I expect a full bounce back from him this next season, maybe even batting leadoff.
If Outman can replicate his 23 season, (.240 batting average, 20 bombs, and outstanding defense) he would be.a great platoon piece for LA.
On Lux, sure there is a potential for more than the underwhelming 2024 season but time is ticking. Between the suspect defense and inconsistent bat he’s been a major disappointment relative to expectations. Ultimately the Dodgers let Seager and Trea Turner walk because they thought Lux could handle SS and be closer in production that those two provided. This is one of Friedman’s few failures, as Lux can’t even play SS and his bat has not come close to the “potential”. He hit 0.276 btw in 2022 with not much pop.
On Outman, I’m not even sure he can do that. He looks as lost at the plate as Bellinger did in his 2021-2022 seasons. He needs to find a way to make more contact. It’s a lot harder than you think. And it’s not only fixing the swing it’s what’s inside the head. I’m hoping he can turn it around but very doubtful.
They’ll have to eat most if not all Taylor’s contract, but they really need to get him off the roster. His hitting skills have gone to zero. He’s not even worth league minimum at this point.
One can only hope. Taylor has one of the ugliest swings of a professional baller I have ever seen. He was an easy out on a majority of his at-bats and the struggles go back further than just the 2024 season. Taylor, Kelly, and Grove are a waste of a roster spot. Muncy has production at least even with a low BA. He has power and gets on base (the 17(?) straight bases in the playoffs is enough to keep him). He’s streaky though and I do have concern for his health.
Outman is still unproven and young. I have to imagine that club control keeps him around.
Kike needs to improve. Can’t just show up in the post season anymore. At least put up league average numbers during the reg season. Consistency is what I’d like to see.
Kike and Taylor are in the same boat with their first/second half performance.
Both were awful in the first half before turning it around late in the season.
In CT3’s case it was a bad slump + injuries to start out the season. He was better after he came back from the hamstring injury. Dodgers don’t need him to be a starter. Late game defense + baserunning is his biggest value to the team.
Kike it was that he literally couldn’t see the ball. After getting glasses he hit something like .280 with an .800 OPS. Not to mention his outstanding postseason.
They’re not going to eat Taylor’s contract. And no he doesn’t need to get off the roster. Dodgers value his versatility. He had a very slow start but otherwise was fine. He’s overpaid but most teams would love to have him on their roster.
Nah, Muncy still okay i guess. He’s bad at the World Series and NLDS, but perform well IMO in NLCS.
Lux, Taylor and Kike had a bad start, they perform better after AS break.
These are the fans that didn’t Buehler on the postseason roster. They’re having a bad season? Get rid of them. Find me someone else. That’s why those people get ignored. Imagine if the Dodger roster decisions were made that way. Pretty sure there would be no World Series in 2024.
Buehler made 3 starts in the postseason. He got rocked against the Padres and pitched 4 innings against the Mets. Lets not act like he carried the team on his back lol.
To say Buehler got rocked against the Padres & not put that in context doesn’t tell the story. Had his defense not killed him, he gives up no runs & moves on to the next inning scoreless. I think that team needed his explosion in the dugout though, they were pretty much unstoppable from that point on & so was he
Defense definitely let him down that inning. But to be fair he didn’t have his swing and miss and was still struggling to find that command.
But he got better and better with each start. It’s a small sample but clearly what he’s capable of when healthy. Definitely enough to be back on a 1 year deal or qualifying offer.
Please. You guys are all the same. This is the guy that went through two years fighting injuries and was pretty damn good when healthy. Yeah, he struggled early but he was phenomenal in the last three appearances. Better swing and miss rates since when he was healthy in 2021. These are not insignificant numbers. Fans give up on their own so quickly. Almost rooting against them to make their arguments valid.
Buehlers start. against the Padres was very similar to Cole’s start in G5. His defense let him down and when he was tired, he gave up some big hits.
10 scoreless innings to close out the postseason. Dodgers would be smart to bring him back on a prove it deal
I don’t know what anyone else thought about Buehler before but I have thought since he came back and even more now, what about a guy at the backend of the bullpen?
That doesn’t make sense financially. Buehler was hoping to pitch well in 2024 to get paid. He needs to get that big contract after a successful 2025 season. He can pursue bullpen opportunities later in his career.
As so many players are, he was horrible with the White Sox.
He had his moments. Luckily he got out of Chicago before the wrecking ball hit.
Joe Karen Kelly, biggest crybaby in baseball history. Not sure who would want that clown on their team. Los Karens are probably it, fits in perfectly. Maybe the crybaby Yankees as well.
It’s so pathetic how mad you are at Joe Kelly’s existence. It’s actually making me smile, thanks.
* pouty face *
I’d say I was planning to pitch next year too, but I doubt my 72 mph heater at my age wouldn’t impress anyone.
But heck, Jamie Moyer and Bronson Arroyo were successful, so who knows?
My FB was timed at a blazing 70 mph, so it’s eephus balls and 50-footers for me.
I don’t think we can expect lightning to strike in the same place twice without some tweaks.
If the F.O. can upgrade 3rd base they should do it, Nolan Arenado? Same at s.s., Adames? Resign Teo or try to trade for Brent Rooker from the A’s or sign FA Anthony Santander. Also try for Corbin Burnes or a trade for one of Seattle’s S.P’s.
Everyday position lineup next year.
C – W. Smith & Barnes (Rushing backup)
1B – Freemann
2B- Mookie
3B – Arenado? Muncy? Edman?
SS – Adames? Edman? Backup; Rojas
L.F. – Rushing? Teo? Brent Rooker? (Ohtani occasionally)
C.F. Edman – Kike occasionally
R.F. Teo, Santander? (Ohtani occasionally)
Utility players – Kike’; some new blood
Just some early offseason thoughts.
Amazing that a team with holes at 2b, 3b & SS (moderately) and CF can be this good even with only three able-bodied SP. I don’t think Ohtani will play in the OF, but I bet he could.
Craziness. Arenado is not an upgrade over Muncy especially factoring in his contract. His glove is obviously an upgrade but not his underwhelming and declining bat is not. Muncy played a solid 3B in postseason. He struggled in WS but Mets couldn’t get him out. I’ll ride with him in 2025.
Why would Ohtani play OF if he’s pitching and DH’ing? He’s less likely to play the field due to pitching duties.l in 2025.
Rushing at LF? Has played 37 games at AAA. Barely played in LF. No track record and we’re already discussing him at LF? Most prospects fail to live up to expectations. Lux was a much more highly regarded prospect and what happened to him? You already want him gone.
I have my doubts about Adames given the Dodgers just picked up the Rojas club option and Edman still around. Adames is an upgrade but not sure if necessary.
I don’t foresee much change in lineup. Big question marks are on pitching side.
C: Smith and Barnes
1B: Freddie
2B: Mookie
SS: Edman
3B: Muncy
RF: Teo
CF: Outman/Kike
LF: Pages/Rushing
Util: CT3
DH: Ohtani
If we have any money to spend, use it to extend Buehler and resign Treinen.
Flaherty and Kelly can go.
Adames is a liability defensively at SS; Dodgers will rotate Edman & Miggy Ro at SS
Adames has historically been a well above average defender. He had a bad season defensively in 2024, but that has not been the case for his career.
Either way, the dodgers cannot afford him and should stick with edman at short.
Kelly apparently has some good blackmail material on Friedman. Or Friedman just Can’t Quit Him. We’ll probably be rolling our eyes at another 3 year contract later this offseason.
This guy hardly pitches 40 IPs a year; let’s give the roster spot to a more deserving younger player.
My thoughts exactly.
Edgardo Henriquez intrigues me as a kelly replacement.