You’ve had a few days to digest our entire 2024-25 Top 50 MLB Free Agent rankings, all 20,000 words of it. Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald and I put more than a month into deliberating our contract predictions. If you want to ask us more about our process, a particular prediction, tell us someone we overlooked/underestimated/overrated or give any other thoughts, you can click here to read a transcript of the chat with Tim, Darragh and me about the list!
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This chat sucked. Not enough questions. Too many answers.
Nostrdamas here: the M’s will not spend big or even moderately on a FA hitter. Under 15m/yr
Darragh’s assessment about Cohen winning all bidding wars is oversimplfying. He did not outbid the Dodgers for Yamamoto. The Yankees meanwhile didn’t two out. They knew Yamamoto wanted to be a Dodger, so both teams stood down. Yamamoto got the money he wanted from the team he wanted. The same will happen with Soto.
“Tap” out.
Lord – Translated to Friedman putting the figure-four leglock on Cashman.
Lord, I agree that Soto will get the money he wants, but he may not really have a team preference. No one knows whether he wants NY, DC, or LA. And, prior to last season, the Met’s let it be known that they were taking the foot off the gas a bit, angling to be more competitive in 2025, and would use 2024 more as a year of assessment. That’s why they didn’t try and out-bid for Yamamoto. They didn’t spend much for 2024, but they did for 2023. Since they out-performed the predictions for 2024, it’s reasonable to assume they’ll be much more aggressive this offseason. The 90-110% penalty is a real factor that will limit the Yankees.
I don’t disagree. I believe his preference is to get the most money and from a team that he thinks will consistently contend, although I suspect that if the money matches, he’d prefer to return to the Yankees. Human nature, especially since he enjoyed his time there. He even mentioned earlier in the year that it’s a bit tiring to keep moving to new teams, get to know his teammates, the staff, etc. That said, I’m sure he can suck it up and do one more move, because this will likely be the last.
One aspect that I don’t think most people account for is the Yankees already had him rostered at $31MM a year. Let’s pick a round AAV — $50MM. They will need to find another 19MM, which is a gap they can bridge more easily than a team needing to find $50MM or more if they’re paying the luxury tax.
I don’t know where he’s going, don’t even have a strong feeling about where he’s going, just noting there are some easy assumptions people are making (Cohen will not be outbid, a message from Scott Boras fed through Jon Heyman!) that may not reflect reality.
But the Yanks have worse lux tax issues than some other clubs. They need more than an additional $19M. A $50M AAV, would mean an additional $45M to $55M tax hit.
I have no idea where he’s going either. Maybe Cohen will show some restraint, but with the size of the Yanks’ tax hit, I’m guessing they show that restraint sooner than the Met’s.
“Tim Dierkes: the Polar Bear is hungry…for RBIye steaks
Steve Adams: Stop”
This exchange made me chuckle
Out loud rhetorical question: Are any of the predictions subterfuge in order to sway readers picks in the contest?
It’s silly, I know. But I have to imagine some of the writers want to keep some of their picks/guesses to themselves for personal bragging rights. And I have no problem with that! I’ve got some left field predictions of my own that I’ll keep to myself until the contest entry is closed.
Your predictions may not be completely out of left field. Why don’t you share them with us and we’ll let you know? : -)
OK, not a big stretch but I think Conforto goes back home and signs with Seattle. The rest are mine!