Prospects in baseball aren't a sure thing, but they're fun to dream on. As fans, pundits and onlookers of all varieties -- heck, even for team employees -- it's easy to get swept up in what might eventually be. There's nothing more alluring than the idea of a potential star-caliber player, or even a solid regular, earning at or close to the league minimum with six or even seven years of club control ahead of them. The more players of this ilk on which a team can successfully convert, the more space there is to be aggressive in free agency, in extending homegrown talent and in acquiring players on notable salary in trades.
The flip side of that equation, however, lies in the moves teams sometimes decline to make. Trades are passed on and free agents looked over, as that promise of a better tomorrow looms on the horizon. "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (or "TINSTAAPP") is a common idiom in baseball circles. For every Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio, there are ten others whose names fall to the wayside and eventually change hands via a minor trade/claim or pass through waivers entirely. Prospects are fun to dream on ... but more often than not, they're just that: a dream.
Every team is susceptible to this. Look up and down the league and you'll probably find at least one former top prospect among each club's crop of minor league free agents this offseason, along with several more who cleared waivers and were assigned to their clubs' top affiliate in hopes they reestablish something.
This isn't intended to be a knock on the Yankees in particular. Again, it's a common problem. But the Yankees currently have four out-of-options players who've yet to establish themselves and who have ranked among their top 10 prospects in the organization within the past three years. None has established himself, and now each is facing an uncertain future, particularly with the looming Nov. 19 deadline to protect players from next month's Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have five open 40-man spots at the moment, so perhaps they don't feel a huge push to free up some space, but those vacancies will be filled by prospects, free agent signings and trade acquisitions -- all beginning within the next few days. Someone's going to have to get pushed off eventually.
Again, other clubs have this issue every year. But in 2024 specifically, there's no club with quite as many out-of-options players on the roster bubble as the Yankees.
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I’d like to see the Cards prospects looked this way also. I’m big into the Cardinals prospects so all info is welcome.
My O’s could buy low on all these fellas
so doing this all of season it is fletch
The Yankee overrate adjustment factor (YOAF) is currently calculated as 1.165. So if their guy has an OPS of .800, he is seen as equivalent to any other team’s player with an OPS of .932.
Am I the only one who did the math and saw that with about 7 hits, one of which might be a home run, Peraza’s dismal MLB numbers would match superstar Volpe’s full season?
I wish I could cancel my subscription to the athletic and sign up for this instead.
Taco – It’s only $2.49 a month here, well worth it. Make the sacrifice, do it!
Here here
The Yankees had very little success developing home grown hitters.the last home grown hitters who posted consecutive 2+ war seasons for the Yankees where judge and then torres.
The Yankees had minor league success and there have been reports that they have a good process and their minor league hitters have good metrics but really all they got where some flash in the pan hot half seasons like andujar, nobody sticked long term.
Hopefully the current prospect generation will do better as this lack of development success has hurt the franchise a lot, they were forced to rely on old, expensive, injury prone guys and when they got hurt the replacements where bad. A franchise like the Yankees shouldn’t have to put up with an 80 wrc+ replacement in an outfield corner when a starter goes down but that is what happened several times the last couple years.
I’ve been waiting for ‘The Martian’ for 2 years now.
Thought he would have burned up MLB the last half of 2024.
If MLB had anything close to fair revenue sharing, the Yankees under Hal Cashman would be like the Jets and Giants.
Would that make the Dodgers like the Saints/Broncos as you can only move salary into bonuses so those guarantees down the road become higher and higher against said fair revenue share. Imagine half the cap being to one person and they may no longer be on the team.
He is quote young and was injured so I think he should be given some time.
Volpe has been bad but if he could just combine his 2023 power (170 ISO) with his 2024 k rate he could be about a league average hitter which would be nice with his glove and maybe there even is room for a little more.
But yes, if they want continued success with that aging core that they are stuck with for another half decade at least they will need more from their top prospect than the 250 hot plate appearance Jesus montero experience to go back a little longer in time, they need guys who can perform and then stick
how about Volpe?
He grew up a Yankee fan in their market.
He loved Derek Jeter and he’s the next Derek Jeter.
He won a Gold Glove.
Get with the propaganda.
he also has 3+ WAR in his first 2 season and he is not even 25 yet. so he fits the criteria of the original post.
Domingo – Yankees were good at developing thieves. Remember Ruben Rivera stealing equipment from Jeter to sell? Legend.
Like you have stolen.
You’re going Bach 30 years. You must be a Yankee hater. All teams have a negative player or more in that scope of time.
Aaron Judge, Volpe, Gil, Torres,, Schmidt, Nasty Nestor ( drafted by the Yankees) and Wells. Not including Cabrera and Jason Dom. The Martian coming in this year
Prospects have a hard time making the Yankee teams because they want a sure thing.. Most of the time they trade or sign free agents to full almost every opening. When prospects come to the majors they are usually on a short leash
Yet, ironically, the ones they sign are injured and/or aging vets that can’t perform anymore.
They had 2 of the top 3 vote getters in the ROY.
Yankees seems to overhyped their prospects and various publications buy into it.
The Yankees overrate their prospects so they can trade them for established great players, prospect writers overrate Yankee prospects in order to placate or sell subscriptions to Yankee fans.
That narrative would work if they actually did that. But they don’t trade them, and when they do, it’s rarely, if ever, for great players.
Usually their prospects are so diminished by the time they trade them that it doesn’t make a difference.
Cashman likes to prospect-hug. Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar are prime examples of Cashman holding onto prospects for too long.
So to imply yanks don’t have farm raised, think again. 3 of 5 starters are homegrown and catcher , ss center fielder, 2nd base All homegrown as well
Teams are all doing what the Yankees have done since Reggie Jackson. Buying fa players is widespread and at a higher degree than the yanks have been doing lately
I thought Jeter Downs was that dude lol
I was also sold that Eric Jagielo was a Rolen, Chavez type of player
I find it almost impossible to believe how few players the Yankees developed over the past twenty-five years. I believe that Judge is the only Yankee developed player to have a career 20 WAR career figure. Come on, in twenty-five years?!
20 career WAR is a pretty high bar to set, but either way he, along with Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes are the only Yankees’ first rounders with 10+ WAR in the 2000s. Brett Gardner, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, and Nestor Cortes have also put up at least 10 WAR while wearing a Yankee uniform. Some other international signees or acquired as a prospect like Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, Masahiro Tanaka, and Chein Ming Wang have also reached 10+ WAR in a Yankee uniform.
Gardner 44.3 WAR, Nestor Cortes played a season for Baltimore currently at 9.3 WAR, Ian Kennedy -.2 WAR for the Yankees, Phil Hughes 5.7 WAR, Betances 11.4 WAR, Gleybor Torres 16.1 WAR, David Robertson 11.4 WAR…. As you can see your estimations of worth are a bit giddy. Please do your homework.
Cano.
I actually thought that you cut and edited stuff that I’ve been writing for years until I saw your post date. It is almost impossible to have such a poor history of development and drafting. Even doing so deliberately!
I remember the “untouchable” prospects like Sheffield, Greg Bird, Deivi Garcia and Refsnyder
Weird hit piece article on Yankees seeing how they had 2 of the top ROY vote getters.
To be fair the Yankees had guys having great rookie seasons before (montero, bird, Sanchez, andujar) and it rarely sticked.
That doesn’t mean that the new prospects will be inconsistent or a flash in the pan too but they certainly need some of those hitters to become consistent performers, something they weren’t able to do since judge and torres.
Maybe this is the prospect generation that finally does it, just because guys 3
2-10 years ago failed it doesn’t mean those guys will too, they are different people after all that just have the jersey and cap in common with the older prospects.
I think we should differentiate betweencpitching and hitting, yankees actually where above average in developing pitchers the last 5-6 years, they were just very bad with hitters.
What pitcher of note have the Yankees “developed”?
Living a mile and a half away from the Volpes, nobody knew about or cared about him in high school all that much. Once he got drafted by the Yankees, there would be articles in the paper about what he had for breakfast. Contrast that with when Porcello got drafted, it was crickets, won the Cy Young, crickets. The Yankees are simply a hype machine.