Lucas Giolito is going into what he hopes will be a rebound year. His first season with the Red Sox was wiped out by a Spring Training elbow injury that required an internal brace procedure to repair his UCL.
The internal brace is generally a less invasive operation than a full Tommy John surgery. That can shave a few months off the projected recovery timeline. Giolito underwent his surgery in the middle of March. With Spring Training opening one year later, the right-hander expects to be on the mound in exhibition play.
“I’m going to be ready for a full Spring Training and a full season,” Giolito told WEEI’s Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. “I find it funny when I see stuff online saying that I’ll be coming back in June. I don’t know where that came from. I have no idea. … Everything’s going great. I look forward to a full year.”
Giolito said he is towards the tail end of his rehab process at the team’s complex in Fort Myers. He indicated he expects to progress to throwing off a mound soon. Giolito added that teammate Garrett Whitlock, who underwent the same procedure in late May, is at a similar stage in his own rehab work.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke with reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this morning. Breslow wasn’t as firm as Giolito had been about the pitcher being ready for the start of exhibition play, but he said that the team indeed expects to have both Giolito and Whitlock available for “the bulk of 2025 if not all of it.” Breslow added that reliever Liam Hendriks, who’ll be a year and a half removed from August ’23 Tommy John surgery, will be a full go for Spring Training. That’s the expected outcome, as Hendriks had a chance to return at the end of this past season before minor arm discomfort led the Sox to shut him down in September.
Giolito conceded that he may need to compete for a rotation spot in what is shaping up as a new-look pitching staff. The Sox have added Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler this offseason. They’re likely to lose Nick Pivetta, who remains unsigned after rejecting a qualifying offer. Crochet and Buehler join Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford in the projected starting five. If Boston prefers to open the year with a five-man rotation, Giolito (assuming he’s indeed on track for Opening Day) may compete with Crawford for the #5 job. Crawford has experience working out of the bullpen but took all 33 turns through the rotation this year.
In any case, the Sox will likely need to rely on all six pitchers to start games over the course of a 162-game schedule. Whitlock, who has yet to reach 80 MLB innings in a season, could be a candidate to head back to the bullpen. Boston moved Whitlock into the rotation to start the ’24 campaign, but he went on the injured list with an oblique strain after four appearances. He injured his elbow during a minor league rehab assignment. Given the durability questions, a return to a two- or three-inning relief role may be appropriate.
Giolito will play next season on a $19MM player option. The Red Sox hold a $14MM club option for the 2026 season. Giolito would convert that to a mutual option valued at $19MM if he’s able to log 140 innings next year. If he opens the year on the active roster, that’s a reasonable target even though he didn’t pitch this past season. Durability had been one of the righty’s biggest pluses coming into this year. Giolito had made 29+ starts in each of the preceding five full schedules. He tossed a career-high 184 1/3 innings with a combined 4.88 earned run average between the White Sox, Angels and Guardians in 2023.
Stick a fork in Gioloto. He’s done.
His agent said another five minutes.
I hope not. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he is not another Corey Kluber who has nothing left in the tank.
Corey Kluber who has nothing left in the tank.
===================
Kluber was 37, and Gio is only 30. Too many RS fans think no one ever survives TJS.
It was not about the TJS. It is more about his numbers were not great going into this contract and we don’t know if the issues that resulted in the surgery are the reason or if there is more to it. Definitely not the same situation as Kluber and I certainly hope that Gio is young enough to regain his form and be an innings eater for us, but there is no guarantee that Gio will jump right into the rotation and have a positive impact.
I wouldn’t say he’s done but he is definitely the sixth man up in Boston rotation.
If he is ready for spring, and can adjust to throwing innings in a relief role, that will be nice for Boston. He is a big strike out pitchers, averages a K an inning across his career, could be real effective in the bullpen.
No way Boston is picking up his option in ’26, if he pitches well over the first half of the season, he may garner some trade interest, but Boston will probably be best off in keeping him in the bullpen all season. Giolito and Hendriks, both former White Sox, they’ll get along well in the bullpen.
IMHO, it is a bet on K-BB%. For his 2022-23 seasons, Gio had a 16.6%, good for #47 among pitchers with at least 200 IPs over the two years.
Of the 46 guys in front of him, only 8 guys had an ERA of 4.00 or higher.
Giolito will be in the rotation to start the season. You don’t pay someone that much to pitch long relief. Salary dictates, especially in Boston.
The poor performances (not the salaries) of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez dictated those players to be DFA’d in the middle of their inflated contracts.
That’s possible but is a bad decision.
Kutter Crawford earned his spot last season, to demote him in favor of Giolito would cause some friction. Giolito should be the guy waiting in the wings.
If Crawford is ineffective and Giolito throws good innings, you give him a look in the rotation mid May. Crawford earned at least five starts to begin the ’25 season. Stick Giolito next to Hendriks and let them tell Tony LaRussa stories for at least two months.
Didn’t this guy used to be a pitcher?
Rumor has it.
Used to be an exec subcommittee member for the mlbpa.
78iq,
Is your comment supposed to be a dig at Giolito?
*7.8
Giiolito, Fried, Flaherty ALL learned the Roger Beshens Football Slider in May 2018. Meanwhile in Atlanta, Roger Beshens got Brandon McCarthy, Folty, Luke Jackson throwing it in June 2018. The most obvious Roger Beshens Football Slider guys were Glasnow, Taillon, Musgrove, Crick, Kuhl, Trevor Williams in Pitt, May 2018.
Roger who? I’ve heard of Tom Emansky. The crime Dogg *not wearing a uniform approves
FALSE!!!! I taught those guys the Roger Beshens Football Slider while they were all at Harvard Westlake!!! YOU LIE
False I am Roger beshens and the real person behind the football slider is Michael Vick
It’s true, I was there (I was one of Vick’s dogs)
A little old lady from Leningrad taught my pitchers that slider.
If Gio, Flaherty, Fried knew that Roger Beshens Football Slider at Harvard they would have easily averaged over 10 k’s a game, that never happened. Ethan Katz and Matt Blake should thank Roger Beshens cause they would NEVER be ML pitching coaches.
Hey Roger, you ve been provided numerous links explaining the origin of the current “sweeper”. It predates all your claims. You yourself all but admit you ripped off Steve Carlton.
Yet here you are yet again trying to take credit for something you had nothing to do with.
Roger Beshens said he created the football slider revolution in MLB not the pitch.
If others threw it like Roger Beshens said, why didn’t they tell others the Grip, Tilt and Wrist action? If they did the football slider revolution would have started then.
Again Roger you ve been provided numerous links with timeliness of its current evolution in MLB. It’s been around long before 2018 and has nothing to do with you.
Quit trying to take credit for others accomplishments.
Why would a football player throw a slider? Sounds like this Roger Rabbit guy is full of it.
Hi I’m Roger Mr Vick did many sliders in order to get out of the penitentiary
Sliders yup, just ask Harold and Kumar
There are various types of sliders.
It seems like you are confusing it with a different one.
Roger Beshens tells baseball pitchers to throw the BASEBALL like a football. What part of that do you not get?
Didn’t Roger Beshens (along with Ted Cruz’s dad) also frame Lee Harvey Oswald for the JFK assassination?
Back and to the left… hander.
Back and to the lefthander…
It wasn’t Roger per se, Roger’s rabbit
Mario Soto taught the Mario Soto change up to a lot of guys…who taught more guys and they all taught others. Now you see all versions of that circle change. He never claimed credit, or called it that, and no one else has either.
Which has nothing to do with a slider that goes way back in history but what the hey.
Boz Scaggs will be just fine. One more for the road! Hes for the money, hes for the show.
February’s quote: “I’m in the best shape of my life. I feel this will be the best season I’ve had in my career.”
In fairness he gave up his fewest home runs in a season…
GaSox – It’s interesting they put the 140 innings clause in the contract, almost like they knew health would be an issue.
Not only did he give up the fewest home runs in 2024, he was not scored upon. Now that is impressive.
Not that impressive GO’62… Gio tied me for the League lead. Big whoop.
Everybody and their mother shows up to Spring Training in the best shape of their lives and ready for a full season. Except Rendon, Bryant, and Buxton. Can already see them with a hamstring issue before even arriving to camp!
I joke Angels, Twins and Rockies fans please don’t take me seriously!
Then before the season starts, a lot of those guys making that quote are put on the IL.
Every ace goes to Boston always injuried recent years.
He’s up $37M, and has yet to throw a pitch. Give ’em a chance to self destruct or be worthy of two more option years. He won’t have to carry the load himself or even close to that.
From a family of thespians: his uncle was on Seinfeld
Or gramps
Is that true? That’s pretty cool, Seinfeld is awesome! The summer of George!
Yeah, Lucas’ arm might be shot, but he’s one righteous dude. On the top of the dugout steps bopping to any DJ on EDM nights. Both his mom and grandpa were actors. His grandpa was Susan’s dad
Uncle Leo?
Hello!
Giolito, Crochet, Buehler, Bello, and Houck would give the Sox the best opening day rotation they’ve had in years
I agree ! Solid offseason so far. Lots of hate on giolito but that club option looks like a nice way to recoup some money on this guy. I think he’s gonna bounce back !
What prompts such an inspirational outlook for Giolito? Was it the declining performance in 2023 or the nothing performance in 2024?
Pitching whisperer Breslow traded the 2024 NL Cy Young Award winner for a lousy utility player. Boston has a long way to go.
Giolito doesn’t have to be prime Giolito. He has to be a solid 4/5 starter and he is capable of that. Giolito, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Priester, Fitts, Criswell is a very solid and deep starting staff.
Giolito doesn’t have to be prime Giolito. He has to be a solid 4/5 starter and he is capable of that. Giolito, Buehler, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Priester, Fitts, Criswell is a very solid and deep starting staff.
Giolito is getting paid 20MMish. He needs to pitch better than a 4/5 for that kind of money. Same with Buehler.
Same with Buehler.
Otherwise it would have been a much better investment to actually invest in good pitchers and not rehab projects
Big – If he pitches well for at least 140 innings next year, the option goes away. It’s in the article.
As a White Sox fan who always liked Giolito, bounce back is a good way to characterize his performance before he got injured.
He is streaky like Pivetta. He’ll have a good month and then he’ll get torched. Maybe the injury refocused him but Kutter Crawford is ascending, to set his development back in favor of Giolito would be a bad decision.
It is a very high risk, high reward rotation. There were better moves to make to raise both the ceiling and floor of the rotation, but here we go.
I think Boston got the two best deals on the market in Crochet and Buehler.
And in September the only one still standing from that rotation might be Bello. I look at this potential rotation and all I see flashing in red letters is “Injury Risk.” I hope that is not the case of course.
I think that is being overly pessimistic. There are definitely some question marks about the health and effectiveness of the current notation and I am sure they will have someone end up being injured, but they have more depth than last year. They have definitely looked worse. I would prefer that they add one more starter, but don’t see that happening at this point. My hope is we will have at least one positive surprise like Sale last year for the Braves.
Uncle – Hopefully you meant last season. If you really meant last year, that means I slept all through New Years Eve! Hahaha!!!
If they were to add one more starter, who goes? It already seems like a waste that guys such as Fitts, Winck and Criswell will get pushed off the roster …. but that’s exactly what will happen. There is definitely the possibility for “too many” pitchers.
These guys are a lock to begin the season in the 6-man rotation unless they trade one of them:
Crochet
Gio
Bello
Houck
Crawford
Buehler
These guys are a lock for the BP:
Hendriks
Chapman
Slaten
Whitlock
Weissert
These guys are serious candidates for the final two reliever spots:
Criswell
Fitts
Wilson
Winck
Bernie
Kelly
You mention Sale, he had 20 starts and 103 innings of performance last year before winning the Cy Young this year..
Returning from injury this year Buehler had only 75 innings, Gio/Hendriks/Whitlock/Sandoval all had zero innings. Definitely not the same situation.
Luis Guerrero!
Yes last season, I am getting ahead of myself. They would likely need to subtract from the rotation before they could add another starter. There have been so many rumors and some of the potential starters would be a step up from someone like Crawford. I also want to see what Giolito does before I officially put him in the rotation. I assume Sandoval won’t be in the picture until 2026. I am going to hope for the best with Hendriks and Whitlock because they could be game changers. My preference would still be to sign Scott to really solidify the bullpen, but maybe they won’t need him.
Fever Pitch Guy = I think you are over optimistic about some of these pitchers. I don’t care if someone wants to erroneously report a guy will be ready by opening day. The recovery from the procedures they have had suggest shorter recovery times but the evidence shows that’s not true.
Your list of six pitchers have the following prognosis based on what others have ACTUALLY experienced, none of this theoretical BS that people write about in relationship to this new surgery.
1 – Crochet – 2020 CWS over pitched him causing TJ surgery. 2024 CWS brought him back as starter and over pitched him and we’ll see if his arm can handle throwing as many innings in 2024 as he did since 2018. Will the arm hold up?
2 – Buehler – Two years since he had his second TJ surgery. If he can gain back his control and lower his hits per 9 to where it used to be his numbers will be closer to the old Buehler but he must stay away from injury and bad habits formed after the second TJ surgery.
3 – Giolito = Recovery times by star pitchers using this procedure have not been significantly different than normal TJ surgery, the estimates marketed by doctors have not proven to be accurate. He might be able to pitch by Opening Day but history shows it will take two months for him to regain his control and movement. Early results if he starts in April could be underwhelming. He’s most likely to be effective for the last four months of the season. So it was big money for four good months, best case.
4 – Sandoval – Out all year
5,6 & 7 – Houck, Crawford and Bello = Should be ready to go day 1 and should have improved their stamina by stretching out their innings in 2024. Houck continues to be the best of the home grown pitchers with Crawford and Bello filling in the roles of bottom of the rotation guys.
Opening day the rotation should be:
1 – Crochet
2 – Houck
3 – Buehler
4 – Crawford
5 – Bello
Giolito could be a sixth starter or he could be a spot starter pitching one out of every three starts assigned to Buehler to keep his volume down to better ensure a full season from Buehler.
I agree, think Buehler is the 1 though even with the injury concerns. Crawford and Bello is a real nice 4/5 – and Giolito is a nice insurance policy, he could be good in the bullpen.
If Giolito and Buehler perform to their full potential, they would be the best rotation they have had in years. Giolito is still a huge question mark at this point. The rotation has great potential and more depth than last year. I hope they can stay healthy and potentially have a 6 man rotation to allow for more rest.
Uncle – Agreed! I always am optimistic this time of year, hoping that everything breaks just right.
If Crochet can develop as hoped, and Buehler/Gio/Houck/Whitlock/Hendriks stay healthy and return to their best form, they are definitely making the playoffs! You heard it here first!
Absolutely, pitching wins games and even without adding another bat if the pitchers we have are healthy and play to their potential we will have a very successful year. Crochet and Buehler both have the potential to take the rotation to the next level.
FPG.. I like the optimism… I agree and believe we win the division as the roster stands and I posted in comments recently, but one more addition will be made. Glad to see that you like the moves FO have made.
Sho – I like the team’s potential, I wouldn’t say I like all their moves though! Haha!
There’s a lot of talent being carried over from last season, and I am really high on Campbell and Anthony.
1-I’d go with a 6-man rotation to start, assuming all 6 are healthy. Attrition will likely knock that down to 5 at some point anyway.
2-I think the problem with Gio will be rust, and not his arm. TJS is kind of standard these days.
6 man rotation gives you an outside chance to keep Gio under 140 innings and have a potentially cheap option on him too.
If they replace Bello with Fitts or Priester. Bello is way overrated as Sox pitchers go.
Letit – Bello had the best second half numbers of any Red Sox starter (besides Fitts, who started 4 games).
Joemo
Letit – Bello had the best second half numbers of any Red Sox starter
==========================
Knowing RS statistics is not a requirement for being a RS fan.
That said, I was surprised just how good he was. From the end of June, he had a 3.66/3.67 ERA/FIP. And a 3.02/3.29 in his final 9 starts.
If he repeats this, a big IF, we could have a very good rotation.
Bello looks like a great one to me, great mechanics.
Sadly, pathetically, you are right Rsox. Doesn’t that just make you want to cry? Henry and the Fenway Group are worth $24 billion altogether and they haven’t spent on the Red Sox in a long time.
Five guys, paragons of health. What could go wrong?
“…. Everything’s going great. I look forward to a full year.”
A full year of cashing checks.
I thought last years Yankee team over achieved. This one is better
Better without Soto? LMFAO!
I wouldn’t say they are better. They are pretty much the same. But they did play better than they should have and if Judge goes down for any length of time(and he is due and injury) they are proper f-ed.
Cole is slowly declining, will Max Fried pitch 150+ innings? If Fried blows out, they ain’t looking so hot. Rodon in my opinion is their most reliable SP. Schmidt new to a starting role, that’s a question mark. Will be a big season for Luis Gil, pressures on. It could be a great rotation, it could fall flat. Stroman and a few minor leaguers to fall back on.
The Yankees bullpen looks solid.
Volpe regressed in ’24, Stanton a year older, he had a good ’24, but he has had some rough stretches over the past three. Goldschmidt is a year older, he regressed in ’24. Dominguez’s development is very important to the Yankees, counting on a rookie. Cabrera, LeMehiu at third.
They need their pitching staff to be great and there are concerns.
That $14m option for 2026 could be a huge steal for the Sox. Was not aware that was im the deal.
After the $19 million for nothing in 2024.
Huge steal back?
Cant predict injuries
But he gets his chicks for free
I think you are confusing that with clicks.
could also bite them in the ass if guys like crochet and buehler are hurt, he is forced into the rotation and looks like he did in 2023. then he would surely stuff that $19 mil onto their payroll for 2026
Swan – If he pitches well for at least 140 innings next year, the option goes away. It’s in the article.
Fever – a more likely outcome is he pitches a mediocre 140+ which converts things to the $19m mutual option.
In that case I can *very* easily see Gio exercising his end, and, Breslow picking up the 1/19 given the money spent on “upside” veterans coming off down years since last offseason started
GaSox – As rare as picking up mutual options are, it’s always possible.
Gio
Houck
Bello
Crawford
Crochet
Buehler
Let’s say they go with a 6-man this year.
Can Cora survive with “only” a 7-man bullpen? Or does he have starters pitch in relief between starts? Will he let starters go 7-8 innings?
Hendriks
Chapman
Bernie
Whitlock
Slaten
Wilson
Fitts or Winck?
I think you’d see a lot of ‘shuttle’ riding to the minors.
One reason Cora burns out BP guys is the BP games or aborted starts that become BP games. With a 6-man rotation I’d think one luxury would be when the starter was clearly going to be lifted after 2+ IP you’d warm up the next day’s starter rather than burn the bullpen wouldnt you?
GASox – No I strongly disagree, as that would defeat the purpose of giving the M*A*S*H 4077 starters an extra day of rest through each turn in the rotation.
The main reason Cora burns out the bullpen is because of his fixation with matchups.
Honestly I think the Sox overcompensated by signing so many guys who you really can’t stash away in Woosta. For instance if Hendriks, Whitlock, Gio or Buehler struggle while ramping up there’s not much the Sox can do, those guys aren’t being sent down.
What sucks is guys like Fitts won’t really get a chance to develop at the MLB level, unless pitchers are traded away between now and the trade deadline.
It’s almost like the Red Sox are hoping there will be many injuries, but then why did they spend so much money on pitchers with questionable health? Kinda defeats the purpose.
Fever – IMO part of it goes back to who is willing to play for you, and, what sort of premium they demand to agree to do so.
Even with the rising talent, you’re asking a pitcher to 1) play for cora, 2) have a horrible infield behind you, and 3) commit to a team run by Henry with a recent track record of not opening purse strings to address needs to let a team contend, even if they’re in a good position at the deadline.
That’s a good bit to overcome. Boston isn’t the worst destination in MLB to play for, but, they aren’t the best either, and, that baggage requires extra $$$$ in an offer.
The 140 ip vesting option for giolito explains why hes less than excited about a 6 man.if he misses any time there def risk of not meeting the innings limit
GASox – No question the Red Sox signed those guys because they are too cheap to sign pitchers that are in high demand. I just think they could have done without signing Buehler. Seems like a waste of money if he ends up pushing Crawford or Houck out of town.
The 8-man bullpen got burned out this year despite the starting rotation having just the 16th-most IP in MLB.
How would a 7-man bullpen last if guys like Crochet, Gio and Buehler are going only 5-6 innings a start? Seems like a recipe for disaster if Cora doesn’t manage the pitching staff correctly.
Cora could have Mariano, Hoffman, Gossage, Wagner, Sutter, Eckersley and Lee Smith in his bullpen and screw it up.
Fever, last year your primary 4 SP were:
Houck – 30 GS, 179IP
Crawford – 33 GS, 184 IP
Pivetta – 26 GS, 146IP (includes relief appearance)
Bello – 30 GS, 162IP
When a patchwork where the heaviest lifting was
Criswell – 18 GS, 99IP
Now, bear with me. Those numbers are averaging around to 5.1 IP/GS as it is for 2024. The reason it felt like there were a lot of patchwork and BP games is because there were.
Now, a 6th starter, even at 5IP on average, spares one inning each time through the rotation for 5/7 of your bullpen. That’d keep guys a bit fresher, I certainly don’t think it’d be worse because last year we already had +/- 5 innings on our starters, and, you need to credit the innings that won’t be thrown.
GaSox – Sorry you lost me!
Ideally with a 5-man rotation you want at least 30 starts each, that’s 150 total starts with 12 remaining coming from the BP (let’s include callup SP’s as BP guys).
The primary 4 starters came only 1 start short of 120, that’s darn good! It’s hard to say what you classify as a BP game though. Criswell was primarily a starter, but we all know Cora loved pulling him early …. even when he’s got a perfect game through 4 innings going.
Where does the 5/7 come from? And how does a 6th starter lessen the BP workload if the starting pitchers don’t go longer in games?
I think I know what you’re thinking, the 6th starter removes the need for bullpen games …. but if that’s what you’re thinking, an injury to any of the 6 starters still necessitates bullpen games …. right? The severity of the injury determines whether there’s a callup or not. If it’s fatigue, the flu, slight muscle pull, etc then typically they don’t go on the IL and therefore no replacement is called up.
Bottom line, in a perfect world if it’s a 5-man rotation then you need 32 or 33 starts from each starter. That’s conservatively 190 innings per starter.
If you go with a 6-man rotation, that’s 27 starts and 160 innings each … which means the remaining 7 relievers has to cover the same amount of innings in each scenario, except with one less reliever.
And if you’re thinking the bullpen would cover less with a 6-man rotation because there wouldn’t be any bullpen games, that’s not correct …. you’d still have bullpen games when one of the 6 starters gets hurt. In fact, when you have a 6-man rotation the odds of one of them getting injured is much higher than if you have a 5-man rotation!
Hope this makes sense, if I’m missing an aspect please let me know.
Let’s hope Henry gives a thumbs up to signing a 3B like Bregman so Devers can move to his natural defensive position at DH.
Which would be awesome for the Red Sox as long as he is back to even the 4.40 ERA he put up for the White Sox in 2021 to 2023.
One more reason to go to a 6 man rotation beyond limiting innings for all the SP returning from injuries. Buehler, Giolito, Whitlock, and even Crochet would benefit from a 6 man.
I think in Whitlock and Fitts that the Red Sox have at least 2 guys that could go piggyback when the starter is getting blasted. Don’t you?
Fever, glad you’re indulging the way these meds interrupt my thought process or explanations.
I guess the way I look at it to try again is, if you went with a 6 man rotation, you could just treat it the same as a normal 5 man rotation – usually extra days off you just get an extra day before your next start. We’ll, let’s apply that in reverse.
You could have a SP in the 6 man rotation be scratched, and, everyone else just pitches as if he wasn’t there. No BP game. It’s not really ‘short rest’ because they still get 5 or 6 days between starts, it’s just not the 6 or 7 it could’ve been.
And we’re not talking Japanese pitchers for whom that would be an adjustment to something they hadn’t done before being used to extra rest.
The way I look at it is twofold: 1) your collection of giolito/buehler/crochet is highly suspect to miss time. Rather than guarantee 6 or 7 days rest between starts, and still use BP games, the way I consider the 6 man rotation is for those brief moments everyone is healthy, guys will get an extra day rest between starts. But the norm is to expect someone injured or scratched early, and, as often as not you wind up pitching on the usual 5 days off.
Kinda make sense?
As for the 5/7 part of things, if it’s a 7 man bullpen (ignoring a shuttle arm or two) then because you’re essentially insured against injured SPs or early exits with a spot starter ready to go, somehow there’s 5 innings less someone as a reliever or BP game opener isn’t throwing.
It makes more sense in my head than out loud, and, even there I’m running off 5 hrs sleep since Saturday. The *good* news was procedure went alright Mon morning, and, they did a couple little repairs while they were in so I ought to be good in that aspect for a few years
Baseball – Neither of them are mop-up guys though. They are both projected to be among the best relievers on the team, so why would you want to waste their efforts if the Sox are already getting blown out?
GaSox – Yes I totally get it, you are saying they should revert back to a 5-man rotation if one of their 6 starting pitchers gets scratched.
But in that scenario, the need for a certain number of bullpen innings every week or month is still the same – right? And if the scratched starter doesn’t go on the IL, that means fewer relievers to cover those bullpen innings – right?
That’s awesome news! Thank you for sharing, now I won’t worry every time you go AWOL for a bit from here. Looking forward to your feedback on the ASG when it happens.
What a joke FSG Fest is, right? Maybe next year it will shrink even more to just a 4-hour event, and the admission cost will include FOUR free tickets to games at Fenway.
Happy New Year my friend, hopefully this is finally the year our Red Sox end the postseason drought!
Both can start so they would be the guys in the pen that make sense to eat innings. Just because the starter didn’t have it Durant mean the team will lose. Sometimes you have to take one for the team and they are both equipped to do so. It’s not wasting their efforts, it’s doing what is in the best interests of the team. Neither will be closing games so they will be pitching in garbage time sometimes.
Happy new year to you and all the others as well Fever
I guess the way I see the ‘6 man’ situation is *closest* to when Wakefield was with the team.
Sometimes he acted as a 6th man in the rotation when there were long stretches without off days. Sometimes he was a spot starter due to injury. Sometimes he came on early if someone was hurt and pulled.
It’s no secret how valuable that was.
If/when your 6th man went down you have the luxury of criswell/fitts to step into the same role, instead of patchwork BP games so I *think* you still have the ability to remove bullpen games and save innings. If nothing else, you spare the pen 5 or 6 innings of work each shift from 6 to 5 men, instead of being left with going 5 to 4 right?
Because part of the problem is, if your two aaa level starters *just* pitched 1 or 2 days ago when someone goes down, you know you aren’t calling one of them up to pitch on a fay or two of rest. And with the young arms, they are still building innings in some cases and fighting having dead arms near the end of last year. Last think you want is one of them trying to go on 4 days rest.
Pool – He should be concerned. History on other pitchers who had the procedure suggest Giolito will struggle with his control and movement during April and May. His good stuff won’t be back until June.
If I were the Red Sox I would set the rotation as Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Crawford and Bello and have Giolito work in long relief with a planned start on Buehler’s third start so Buehler ramps up a bit slower than Crochet, Houck, Crawford and Bello. That way if there is an injury he’ll have enough starts to step into the rotation and if there is no injury then if Giolito gets his good stuff back either Crawford or Bello drop to the SP6 slot. Remember, only Crochet, Buehler and Giolito need to worry about their innings pitched. Houck, Crawford and Bello should be ramped up to pitch well over 150 innings.
The White Sox blew out Crochet’s arm in 2021 by having him throw over 50 relief innings in his first season. Then, when he came back from TJ he threw as many innings in 2024 as he had since the start of college. There is no way to know how his arm is going to react to the huge jump in innings. It might be an issue like after his big innings in relief in 2021. Someone other than Cora needs to keep an eye on it.
The key to keeping the improved pitchers Buehler and Crochet healthy is to keep Cora as far away as possible. We don’t want mysterious IL stints because Cora thinks he understands something he has completely wrong like he did with Sale and Price. We don’t want a repeat of his screwing the pitching staff. Once was enough and should have gotten him fired.
Fever Pitch Guy – As usual we can point to Cora to explain why we’ve had issues in recent years with innings pitched.
We have three young guys coming through the farm system. Houck arrives in 2020 throws 17.1 innings with an ERA under 1.00.
In 2021 the next year Cora splits his time 13 starts and 5 relief performances despite him leading the team in pitching. He wasn’t a chosen one so he got ramped up from 17.1 to 69 innings which is not really a ramp up. Houck threw over 100 innings 3 years in college and in Hi-A in 2018. It was in 2019 Cora moved to relief and cut back his innings after ramping up in 2018. He completely mishandled the kid.
Houcks innings in preparation for being the starter he was targeted to be have been – 69 in 2021, 60 in 2022, 106 in 2023 and 178 in 2024. So when Houck tired late in 2024 it’s because he was improperly ramped up as a starter. They jumped him too few innings in 2022 and 2023 and too many in 2024. Now that he’s experienced roughly 180 innings in a season he is ready to be a workhorse that doesn’t get pulled prematurely when he gives up a hit in the 5th inning. He needs to expect to go no less than 6 and he has the stuff to throw complete games.
Crawford while nowhere near as good as Houck he was shown respect by Cora and he didn’t get jerked around back and forth from relief to starter. In 2018 Crawford was ramping up nicely as a starter throwing 144 innings after throwing 85 the previous year. In 2019 Crawford was cut back to 88 innings and then didn’t play in 2020. In 2021, he threw 94 innings to ramp up after COVID and by 2022 he started 12 games in Boston and pitched about 100 innings for the season. In 2023 he had 129 innings so they ramped him up properly unlike Houck. Tehn in 2024 he was able to further ramp up to 184 innings. He is ready to be a bottom of the rotation starter in 2025. His ERA was a bit high in 2024 but his WHIP showed his control was good.
Bello is from the Dominican Republic which is why he got special treatment. In 2018 he pitched 64 innings in a weak Dominican Summer League. His ERA reflected how incredibly weak it was because he produced a 1.60 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. This put him on a fast track as the next super star pitcher for Boston even though Houck was much better but American. In 2019 Bello went to A ball and got beat up because he wasn’t the pitcher they thought he was because the DSL was really weak and A ball was much tougher. Heck good HS ball in the US is much tougher than the DSL. A 5.43 ERA in 25 starts and an atrocious WHIP of 1.47 showed he wasn’t great, he wasn’t even good. He was walking 3.5 per 9 IP.
So Bello got 2020 off thanks to COVID and he was started at Hi-A in 2021. To prove he was the stud they thought he was they pitched him six starts in Hi-A where he flourished against the HI-A hitters. So they moved him to AA and once again he got clobbered. His 4.66 ERA wasn’t cutting it and his WHIP popped back up to 1.414. So which pitching stats reflected the REAL Bello?
In 2022, Bello started back at AA and had 7 starts and he mirrored the success he had at Hi-A the year before so the Red Sox moved him to AAA. At AAA he had 10 starts and put up a 2.76 ERA and an improved 1.19 WHIP. So to showcase their Dominican star pitcher they promoted him to the Red Sox on July 6th of 2022. Looking at his ramp up process we see that in 2019 he threw 119 innings a A ball and had a rough year. Then after COVID he threw 95 innings in 2021 as he was ramping back up after a year off. In 2022, he threw 96 innings prior to being called up in July. He threw another 57 innings for the Red Sox that year. His numbers were a 4.71 ERA and an atrocious 1.78 WHIP. Clearly, he didn’t belong in the MLB at this point but he was being showcased as the superstar Dominican pitcher and he was to distract fans from all the losing. You also have to question having him ramp up from 95 innings in 2021 to 155 innings in 2022 with 57 of them at the MLB level.
In 2023, Bello threw 157 innings with a slightly better 4.24 ERA and a still bad 1.338 WHIP. He wasn’t proving to be the star Boston tabbed him to be but they still offered him a premature contract for 6 years and $55Million while he was a going into his PRE-ARB 2 season!!! Ridiculous. What a total waste of money on another Dominican Player!! First Devers and now Bello. While the older and far superior Houck gets no offers. It’s a joke.
In 2024 with his multi-year contract in place at age 25 Bello puts up a 4.49 ERA and another bad WHIP at 1.361. He has now established his normal stats to be a 4.5 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Those are numbers like EROD put up for years. Below league average. He’s the #5 starter until Giolito is fully ready and then Bello needs to drop to at least SP6 if not lower if some of the other young guns show promise. Too bad we wasted so much money on him because of his country of origin rather than his actual skill set.
I’m very interest to see some of the other young pitchers against good competition to see if Bello stays a started or ends up a DFA or reliever. Sure glad they proactively signed a guy 3 years early without seeing that he wasn’t that good.
Sag – Once you start a regime geared toward either starting or relieving, which typically begins in ST if not during the offseason, it’s very difficult to switch gears midseason. Especially someone like Gio who has relieved only twice, and both were way back in 2016. Guys like Pivetta who somewhat did it are very rare.
GaSox is right, the best way to work out the kinds and build up the endurance for the M*A*S*H 4077 starting rotation is a 6-man. The Dodgers will likely do the same.
Sag – That’s the thing, without leaving the 5th starter role open for a rookie to develop, we will never know what could be with guys like Fitts.
Remember a year ago Houck was penciled for the bullpen, only the Gio injury allowed him to prove how good a starter he is. If Gio doesn’t get injured, Houck’s all-star game start never happens.
His best days appear firmly in the rearview mirror.
York..is this you finally admitting your crystal ball is fake?…of course they are behind him..the future hasnt happened yet thanks captain lol
@Poolhalljunkies
No, based on all the metrics and analysis of his regression over the years, he’s done as a starter. Might be a half decent bullpen piece but he’s done as a starter.
York..thats mighty presumptous of you to assume if he is no longer a starter that his best days are behind him..there are many who might get in line to argue thats a foolish assumption , chief among them dennis eckersley, andrew miller to name a couple . Also he has shown when healthy he is capable ..its shortsighted to give up on anyone so easily…but you keep trying to predict the future and be sure to let us know how often you are right maybe we will all start asking you to pick winners in sports betting or your favorite lottery numbers
““I find it funny when I see stuff online saying that I’ll be coming back in June. I don’t know where that came from. I have no idea. ”
Well, let me let you in on a little secret, Lucas. You’re new to Boston so I wouldn’t expect you to know this, and it’s also not your fault at all. We are just used to these dumpster diving projects where we get told a guy is looking great and expected to be ready by a certain date, and then isn’t seen until several months later because his recovery was not in fact going as perfectly as it was originally said to be. So we just know better by now when a pitcher isn’t 100% healthy going into a season to not expect to see him before June.
You weren’t one of my top 5 choices to be in our rotation this year, but the front office feels differently, so I sincerely hope you are able to break the cycle this year. A full, healthy, and effective season from you would be massive.
Dirty – Great post! I’m bullish on him because his prior two crappy years were no doubt likely due to the injury that he knew about.
What the article doesn’t mention is the Sox are seriously considering a 6-man rotation which would no doubt include Crawford.
I can certainly live with Gio getting a look if it’s part of a 6 man rotation. I don’t think he has any business bumping any of the top 5 – Crochet/Buehler/Houck/Crawford/Bello – but given how badly the staff as a whole (BP included) ran out of gas last year I think a 6 man rotation is honestly a good idea. Even when guys aren’t already pushing 100 pitches Cora never seems to like letting guys go much deeper than 5 IP anymore anyways, so if the starter’s going to have that short of a leash it almost even demands a 6 man rotation.
Dirty – Yeah I really don’t think they gave Gio $39M to be a middle reliever, he will be in the rotation if he’s healthy.
I support a 6-man rotation as well, hopefully it means allowing Houck/Crawford/Bello to pitch at least 7 innings per start especially with their bullpen being “only” 7 pitchers. All three of them were stretched out quite a bit this year, throwing between 162-184 innings. Hopefully that progress isn’t wasted.
What is interesting is whether they revert back to a 5-man rotation if one of the six gets injured. That probably depends on performance.
You’re definitely right about that. I just think they overpaid massively for what we can realistically expect to get from him so my baseline expectation is at some point during the season they will have to face the music and pull the plug on him, and it’s a pile of money lit on fire.
I would love to be wrong. Hopefully there’s something they identified that can be fixed. If he’s pitching well that’s one thing, but I don’t want him holding back the development of that trio specifically in the event he’s just out there getting shelled most of the time and they stubbornly insist on sending him back out each turn because of how much he’s set to make. Because $39 million is a lot to waste on that, too!
Dirty – So you don’t believe the injury impacted his 2022-2023 performance?
I mean it very well could’ve been a factor, I’ll never know enough about the situation to be able to say definitively that it didn’t play a role. If we’re being reasonable, yeah, I’d say there’s probably a good chance it very much did play a role down the stretch in ’23 when he was so awful with LAA and Cleveland. But he pitched 345 innings over those two seasons. That’s a healthy workload in general for most guys, forget it for anyone with a major elbow injury. So do I believe he pitched two full seasons with a torn, partially torn, or actively deteriorating UCL? No, I can’t really say that I do. Might be part of the story but I think it’s unlikely to be the whole story.
He liked to eat a lot of pizza in Chicago.
If he pitches well out of the bullpen, he might get a decent contract in ’26. He is a nice swingman in what should be a five man rotation of Buehler/Crochet/Houck/Bello/Crawford.
If Giolito is in the rotation to start the season, the only reason I can see for it is that they want to audition him for a trade, and that to me is counterintuitive, because if he pitches well out of the bullpen for thirty five innings and has a couple decent spot starts, I’d say teams will be interested knowing they can stretch him out if needed. With the depth Boston has in place, if they are fully healthy at the deadline, he will likely get traded.
One of the biggest Brinks jobs I’ve in ml history !
@Cooper – Not even in the Top 20 of all time, not even close! The Sox have (2) monster ones in recent decades in Carl Crawford and Pablo Sandoval. Those were horrendous deals. I’m hoping this is not the case but they could be looking at a 3rd if Trevor Story isn’t able to finally get healthy and provide some value on the back half of his ill-advised 5 year deal.
I believe Giolito will rebound nicely this year, along with Walker Buehler too. Both are pitching for their next contracts and will look to put together excellent years so they can max out on their next deals.
Dotty – I think he means the fact Gio likely knew he was on the verge of surgery when he signed the contract.
This explains why Breslow has not been in a hurry to add another starter. He believes he already has one returning in Giolito.
Baseball – Yeah I think they are starting the season with a 6-man rotation. Once they signed Buehler, it was a given they were done pursuing high end pitchers like Burnes.
I was hoping he would push for another top starter, but looks like he is done on that front. Bregman?
I’m just a Giolito and everywhere I go Boston knows the part I’m playing……
olm – This is a rare opportunity to combine baseball with horse racing!
Did you know Buehler and Bregman are co-owners of a horse called March of Time, trained by Baffert ….. and it won it’s first race last Friday at Santa Anita!
How about that!!!
FPG.. first happy new year!! Second .. no I did not know that… out of justify… $$$ that’s no donkey they got there!!!
olm – Happy New Year to you as well!
I’m heading to Gulfstream tonight, you could say it’s a warmup for Pegasus only a few weeks away. I’ll tell Baffert you said hello.
The whole idea of a six man rotation still hasn’t come to fruition the way people think. I don’t see it as simply turning the five man rotation into a six man rotation. I think that four games between starts is a good amount. I see the five man rotation still in effect but it is populated by six starters. How exactly will that work? I think you start off with the healthiest and most effective five and let that run. As soon as a starter shows signs of being off or needs a blow, you insert the sixth man. Theoretically, they all get 27 starts instead of 32. They need to average 6 innings per start to reach 162 innings. That seems like a reasonable goal. Considering that the postseason has expanded so much, maybe you want your starters a little fresher. This can help the bullpen as well. If you are asking your bullpen to average 3 innings per game, that seems manageable. One inning relievers would be pitching about 60 innings while multiple innings guys might go up to 90 innings. The really important part is managing your losses properly. You could easily lose 62 games and still be a powerful team. Who you use in those 62 games is critical to keeping the important relievers from overuse. I like the staff that’s being assembled. They have starters, multi innings guys and one inning guys. Quite a bit of quality and depth. We’ll see how it shakes out.
This rotation is really raising the ceiling. Golito sucks, Buehler wasn’t even good enough to warrant a QO from the Dodgers and Crochet is injury prone. The Sox will be 500 or just under that again. As long as they go cheap and sign injured or reclamation projects they will have no chance. It was nice watching the Sox from 2004 -2018, but I feel like we are watching the Sox under the old ownership. I wish fans had the balls to boycott the team until Henry sells or spends, but they won’t.
soxfan – Many fans are already boycotting! Look at this year’s revenue numbers when they come out in 3 months. Ticket sales are sluggish, plenty of season ticket packages still available, and Winter Weekend at a major resort has been shrunk down to just 8 hours at Fenway. Plenty of FSG Fest tickets still available despite it being only 11 days away, and they are even unloading free game tickets as part of the FSG Fest admission price!!
But as always I’m super-positive about the team, I think CMA will shine and Devers/Yoshida will have huge comeback years. They’ve got a real shot at the playoffs!!
i thought it would be Snell, Fried and Burnes.
Conned again
Need to trade him to the Braves or trade for Reynaldo Lopez.
Bankees? You misspelt, oh..I see what you did there!
Why are there HUNDREDS of MLB pitchers throwing a DIFFERENT Type of slider since May 2018? Roger Beshens messaged HUNDREDS of ML pitchers the grip, tilt and wrist action of his Football Slider on Twitter, some told him what game they threw it. What was Roger Beshens teaching Brent Strom in the Dbacks Clubhouse May 23, 2024? Why were the Dbacks 29th in slider usage and some not interested in Stroms suggestions even though Strom was already in AZ for over 2 years?
Hundreds are throwing the Roger Beshens Football Slider cause he taught pitchers EXACTLY how to throw it, On center grip, throw like a football, stiff wrist. A pitcher can’t learn that slider if he doesn’t know how to throw it, a revolution can’t be started if pitchers don’t know how to throw it.
Roger Beshens clearly started the MLB “Football Slider” revolution. That Football Slider is the Sweeper and Gyro, they are the same football slider just thrown from a different arm angle. Roger Beshens did very smart he documented MLB contacting him in November 2018, he documented Strom, Lovullo talking about the football slider, he documented Strom learning it in the Dbacks clubhouse. More to come….