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Tatsuya Imai To Be Posted November 19th

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It was reported last week that right-hander Tatsuya Imai would be posted by the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball. His agent Scott Boras met with members of the media today at the general managers meeting and said the posting will become official on November 19th. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to pass it along.

Once the posting becomes official, it will open up a 45-day window for Imai and Boras to negotiate will all 30 major league clubs. Technically, they will have until early January to work something out. It’s probably fair to expect a deal to come together before the holidays, when the hot stove activity tends to slow down.

Imai should garner lots of interest based on his results and also his age. His earned run average in Japan has been 2.34 or lower in three straight seasons now, including a 1.92 mark in 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked up from 24.4% in 2023 to 26.3% last year and 27.8% this year. Meanwhile, his walk rate has dropped from 11.4% to 9.8% to 7% in those years.

He is currently 27 years old, turning 28 in May. Teams have shown that they value that youth. Recent deals for young players like Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee have surged beyond expectations.

Imai won’t have as much earning power as Yamamoto, who secured $325MM over 12 years. Yamamoto was even younger, having just turned 25 when he was posted, and also had the superior track record of performance. Still, Imai should find lots of interest. MLBTR predicted he could secure a $150MM guarantee on a six-year deal.

The signing team will also owe the Lions a posting fee, on top of the guarantee they give Imai. The Lions will get 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark. If Imai were to sign a deal matching MLBTR’s $150MM projection, his new team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee.

The righty has already been connected to the Mets. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported today that the Yankees will be looking at Imai, as well as Lucas Giolito. The Yanks go into 2026 with their rotation in flux. Due to injuries, it projects to be much different later in the year compared to the end of camp. Gerrit Cole is still recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery and won’t be ready by Opening Day. Carlos Rodón underwent a procedure to remove loose bodies from his left elbow and is expected to start the year on the injured list as well. Clarke Schmidt had internal brace surgery in July and could rejoin the club in the second half.

With those absences, the Yankees project to start the season with Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Will Warren and Allan Winans in the rotation. Adding to that group would be an understandable target. It’s possible that things get tight later in the year as Cole, Rodón and Schmidt get healthy, but other injuries could also pop up along the way.

Giolito should be a far more affordable addition than Imai. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $32MM deal. He was once a borderline ace but hasn’t been at that level in a while. His ERA finished near 5.00 in 2022 and 2023. He missed 2024 due to internal brace surgery. He returned in 2025 and posted a 3.41 ERA but with less impressive stuff under the hood. HIs 19.7% strikeout rate was below league average and well below the 33.7% mark he had back in 2020. He also finished the season back on the IL with an elbow issue, though he says that has now passed.

There are plenty of other starting pitchers the Yankees could consider at different price levels. Presumably, their plans in the rotation will depend upon what they do elsewhere. They have to address their outfield, with Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham having both reached free agency. It’s also possible they look to remake a bullpen that was a source of frustration in 2025.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images.

MLBTR Podcast: Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

Lucas Giolito Wants To Return To Red Sox, Says He’s “Fully Healthy” After Late-Season “Freak Injury”

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After UCL surgery cost him the entire 2024 season, Lucas Giolito returned in 2025 to post solid results (3.41 ERA in 145 innings) in the Red Sox rotation before the injury bug arose just prior to the start of Boston’s Wild Card Series with the Yankees.  Right flexor irritation and a bone issue kept Giolito off the playoff roster and unable to do anything besides watch as the Sox were eliminated in three games.

Adding to Giolito’s frustration was the fact that after getting the diagnosis and beginning some rehab work, “within three days, my elbow felt 100 percent fine again,” the right-hander told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford on the latest edition of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (partial transcript here).  With no UCL damage discovered and the inflammation subsided, Giolito planned to quickly start a throwing program with the intention of returning later in the playoffs, except Boston’s run was cut short early.

As the offseason and Giolito’s free agency now begins, he said that is now “fully healthy,” even though he understands the complications that bought on by his late flexor issue.  He said he is “happy to prove that I’m fully healthy in any way possible” to any skeptical front offices, and that the injury is completely behind him.

“There’s no injury, or whatever injury there was is gone.  It was a weird, freak thing that popped up at the worst possible time, not only for the Red Sox but for myself and in general,” Giolito said.  “Just the worst possible time.  It makes my free agency harder.  It prevented me from pitching in the playoffs where I had been a part of the rotation pretty much the entire year.  It was just a very, very tough one to swallow.  I still don’t like thinking about it.”

Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox during the 2023-24 offseason that broke down as an $18MM salary for 2024 and then a player option for a $19MM salary in 2025.  Giolito’s internal brace procedure made it an easy call for him to exercise that $19MM option and remain in his Sox contract, and remaining in the deal also added a club option for 2026 worth at least $14MM.  Since Giolito then tossed at least 140 innings in 2025, the club option was converted to a $19MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout, giving Giolito the right to test free agency again if he declined his end of the mutual option.

That is exactly what happened earlier this week, and Giolito finds himself on the open market again.  He doesn’t have the qualifying offer attached to his services since the Sox didn’t issue him the one-year, $22.025MM offer.  Giolito told Bradford that he didn’t expect the QO due to his injury: “You end of the year hurt, it puts a bad taste in the team’s mouth.  It is what it is.  Now, the fortunate side is that it was like the most benign, weird, freak injury that went away after a few days.  So, now I’m like, great.  I’m having a fully healthy, amazing offseason.”

Sour ending notwithstanding, Giolito still viewed his 2025 campaign as “really, really positive” given his own success and Boston’s success in returning to the playoffs.  He is also hoping for an encore performance at Fenway Park in 2026 and beyond.

“I made it clear to everybody. I would love to come back here and continue to play for the Red Sox.  It’s the most fun I have ever had having a season with a team in the big leagues,” Giolito said.  “I felt like the way it ended left such a bad taste in my mouth, and the rest of the team, particularly me not being able to pitch in that playoff series.  It really sucked.  I was like I really hope I can come back, and it goes better for us next time.”

MLBTR ranked Giolito 27th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected the right-hander to land a two-year, $32MM contract.  There was a bit of flexibility within that projection since some teams may feel comfortable enough in Giolito’s health to add a club/vesting option for a third year, or perhaps even just a fully guaranteed third year.

This mid-range price tag should put Giolito on the radar for a lot of clubs, and a return to Boston certainly seems plausible since the Sox are still in need of pitching.  The expectation is that the Red Sox will pursue a frontline arm to team with Garrett Crochet atop the rotation, but adding this hypothetical ace and Giolito would only deepen the rotation and make the Sox better equipped for a longer postseason run.

Lucas Giolito Declines Mutual Option

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Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito has declined his end of a $19MM mutual option, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. He’ll be paid a $1.5MM buyout and return to the open market in search of a new opportunity. The Red Sox will have the right to make him a $22.025MM qualifying offer, as Giolito has not previously received a QO in his career.

Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox on the heels of a disappointing platform with the White Sox. He’d posted excellent results from 2019-21 and cemented himself as one of the sport’s most durable starters before logging back-to-back ERAs near 5.00 in 2022-23. Giolito, 32 next July, had hoped to bounce back in Boston and take an opt-out in his contract last offseason.

Instead, the clock struck midnight on the durable right-hander’s arm. He tore the UCL in his pitching elbow during spring training 2024 and didn’t pitch a single inning inning that year. Giolito naturally forwent the opt-out in his contract and returned to Boston for the 2025 season. He stumbled out of the gate, struggling so badly that for a few starts it looked like his entire two-year contract would go down as a bust. By early June, he had an ERA north of 6.00 through seven starts.

Giolito rebounded in terrific fashion, however. Beginning with six shutout innings against the Rays on June 10, he took off on an extended hot streak. From June 10 through season’s end, Giolito posted a 2.51 ERA in 111 1/3 innings. His 20.3% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate in that stretch were both worse than average, and his .244 average on balls in play showed plenty of good fortune. Even with some expected regression in his ERA, Giolito looked like a solid mid-rotation starter who’d take a place in Boston’s postseason rotation — at least until the next roadblock arose.

On Sept. 29, manager Alex Cora announced that Giolito was dealing with an elbow issue and would not be on the team’s roster in the Wild Card round of postseason play. The next day, the team indicated that Giolito was unlikely to return at all in 2025, regardless of how deep the Sox advanced in the postseason field. While his surgically repaired UCL was intact, the veteran righty was hobbled by flexor irritation and a bone issue in his elbow.

The Sox had a $14MM club option on Giolito for the 2026 season that they might still have exercised even after the elbow troubles, but when he completed his 140th frame of the season — Giolito totaled 145 innings overall — that option vested instead as a $19MM mutual option. Players tend to make the first call with regard to mutual options, and Giolito is seemingly confident enough in his health that he’ll turn down a net $17.5MM to once again test free agency.

His decision to decline the mutual option also forces the Red Sox into a decision on whether to issue a qualifying offer. They exceeded the luxury tax line in 2025, so they’d only net a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the 2026 draft if Giolito declined and signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation, coupled with more elbow troubles for Giolito, might be enough for the Sox to forgo extending a QO in the first place. If they do, however, Giolito will again have a decision to make — this time on a sum that clocks in a bit over $3MM north of his prior option price. Add in the buyout he’s owed for declining, and a QO could at least net him $4.525MM over the value of the option he declined today.

With Giolito headed toward the market — or at least somewhat up in the air — the Sox project for a rotation including Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and a handful of question marks. Top prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early impressed late in the season but only have a handful of MLB starts between them. Kutter Crawford missed the entire season due to knee and wrist injuries (the latter of which required surgery). Patrick Sandoval didn’t pitch in 2025 after signing a two-year deal on the heels of his 2024 UCL procedure, but he’ll be in the mix next year. Tanner Houck had Tommy John surgery in August and is likely a nonfactor in 2026.

Given all the uncertainty in the ’pen, the Sox are expected to pursue rotation help this winter. That could include a reunion with Giolito, but there are plenty of options for them to peruse on both the free agent and trade markets.

Latest On Lucas Giolito

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Right-hander Lucas Giolito had a pretty good year with the Red Sox in 2025 but it ended on a frustrating note as he wasn’t included on Boston’s postseason roster due to an elbow injury. Even before the Sox were eliminated, manager Alex Cora said Giolito was most likely not going to be coming back this year. Today, Chris Cotillo of MassLive provided an update on the righty’s status. Giolito has been on a throwing program with one source telling Cotillo that Giolito is “100%” while another source said Giolito is “making improvements.”

Giolito’s status is noteworthy at this stage of the offseason as he is about to return to free agency. He originally signed with the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season, a two-year deal worth $38.5MM. Giolito had a chance to opt out of that deal after 2024 but he ended up missing that entire season due to UCL surgery, so he naturally decided to stay with Boston for the second season.

By foregoing that opt-out chance, he gave the Red Sox a $14MM club option for 2026. However, he could convert that to a $19MM mutual option by pitching 140 frames in 2025. He got to 145 frames this year, successfully converting it. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides, with the last instance being more than a decade ago at this point. As such, Giolito will almost certainly get the $1.5MM buyout instead.

There’s a long winter ahead but Giolito’s health in the near term is important. As pointed out by Cotillo, the Sox have until five days after the World Series to decide whether or not to issue Giolito a qualifying offer, which is a one-year deal worth $22.025MM. That’s roughly what the Sox have been paying Giolito annually on his two-year deal, so it’s not a huge spike.

However, there are reasons why the Sox may not feel comfortable with continuing to pay Giolito a salary in that range. The obvious one is the elbow. It has been previously reported that Giolito has no UCL damage but does have flexor irritation and a bone issue. If the Sox felt that injury could linger into 2026, then they may prefer to walk away.

The other issue is Giolito’s performance. The Sox initially bought low on him. He was a borderline ace a few years ago, earning Cy Young votes in three straight years from 2019 to 2021. But his ERA spiked to just under 5.00 in both 2022 and 2023. Even in those poor seasons, he struck out more than 25% of batters faced. That was a drop from his peak, when he was striking out around 33% of opponents, but it was still above average.

In 2025, Giolito managed to finish strong in the ERA department but without getting his strikeouts back. He had a solid 3.41 ERA for the year overall. He had a rough 6.42 ERA through seven starts but then an excellent 2.51 ERA over his final 19 starts. However, even in that latter sample, he was only punching out 20.3% of opponents. For reference, the average strikeout rate for a starting pitcher in 2025 was 21.8%. That figure is probably inflated a bit by the use of openers, but Giolito’s rate is still fairly middling.

The other issue is that the reward for making a QO may be lesser than in the past. The Sox got the 75th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Nick Pivetta rejected a QO and signed with the Padres last offseason, but that was after a year in which the Sox did not pay the competitive balance tax. Both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimate that the Sox went slightly over the tax line in 2025. Those are unofficial estimates, but if they are accurate, then the QO compensation pick would fall to after the fourth round of the draft if Giolito were to reject a QO and sign elsewhere.

Giolito likely would have started a playoff game for the Sox if he were healthy. He and Brayan Bello were the most established options behind ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Bello and rookie Connelly Early made starts alongside Crochet. Cotillo suggests the Sox are quite happy with Giolito, including as a veteran clubhouse leader. Even with some concerning numbers and the lesser benefit from making the QO, perhaps they will do it anyway if they would be happy for him to accept. Though even if they like Giolito, they may not want to tie up $22.025MM of their budget just as the offseason is beginning, especially if Giolito’s elbow is still an issue.

A bit of progress in the next few days could increase Boston’s willingness to issue the QO. It may also increase his willingness to turn it down and explore the market. Even if they do offer it, he gets a couple of weeks to talk to other teams and gauge his market before making his decision on the QO. His market with non-Boston teams will depend both upon his health and whether or not he is attached to a QO.

Photo courtesy of Eric Canha, Imagn Images

Lucas Giolito Unlikely To Pitch Again This Season

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9:02 pm: There is no structural damage to Giolito’s UCL, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. He is dealing with flexor irritation as well as a bone issue, which will require rest for a while.

3:51 pm: Right-hander Lucas Giolito is likely out for the year with an elbow injury, manager Alex Cora told reporters at today’s media session (link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). The elbow issue had already kept Giolito off the Wild Card roster. It will now seemingly cost him the rest of 2025. Cora told reporters that rookie Connelly Early will likely draw the starting nod in Game 3 against the Yankees, if needed.

The elbow injury will bring an untimely end to a resurgent season for Giolito. The 31-year-old shuffled between three different MLB organizations in 2023, posting a 4.88 ERA across 33 starts with the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians. He then missed the entirety of the 2024 season following surgery to repair his UCL. Giolito bounced back with a 3.41 ERA over 26 starts with the Red Sox this season. His 4.59 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA suggest he performed above his head, but his contributions helped solidify a staff that dealt with injuries all year.

Boston inked Giolito to a two-year deal ahead of the 2024 season, with the second season being a player option. After missing the entire year, Giolito picked up the option. By triggering that player option, he gave the club a $14MM option for 2026, though with a vesting clause that would convert it to a $19MM mutual option if Giolito reached 140 innings pitched. He exceeded that mark in his second-to-last outing of the regular season. Giolito seemed destined to decline his end of the option and return to free agency, but the elbow injury could lead Boston to reject it on their end.

If either side balks at the mutual option, Giolito would enter free agency in a peculiar position. He’d be coming off his best season in terms of run prevention since his breakout 2019. While he fell short of the above-average strikeout numbers he posted during his White Sox tenure, Giolito cleaned up the home run issues that plagued him in his wayward 2023 season. On the other hand, this is the second elbow problem in two years for Giolito. Even if this specific injury is minor, anything elbow-related is a red flag, especially for a pitcher who will be 32 years old next summer.

Early starting a playoff game would’ve seemed like a long shot heading into the season, but he’s now the clear top candidate to fill Giolito’s vacated spot. The rookie has impressed in four big-league starts, allowing two earned runs or less in every outing. He burst onto the scene with 11 strikeouts against the Athletics in his debut and has continued to rack up punchouts at an above-average clip. After posting a strikeout rate above 30% at each minor league stop, he’s at 36.7% through 19 1/3 innings with the Red Sox.

The Yankees will present a challenging task for the young lefty, especially in what would be a series-deciding game. New York led the league in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching in the regular season. They slugged 70 home runs off southpaws, matching the Dodgers for the league lead. The Yankees elected to roll out a lineup with just three left-handed hitters against Garrett Crochet in Game 1. That starting nine does not feature Jazz Chisholm Jr. While a strict platoon between Chisholm and righty Amed Rosario seems unlikely, New York appears willing to play matchups in this series. It’s a tiny sample, but Early has struck out an absurd 13 of the 22 lefties he’s faced this season. He’s held left-handed hitters to a meager .150/.227/.150 slash line.

Kyle Harrison and Payton Tolle are also on hand as potential options to replace Giolito. Tolle also impressed in his MLB debut, striking out eight Pirates over 5 1/3 innings. He’s posted a 7.36 ERA since that outing and has been used in a relief role in recent outings. Harrison came over from San Francisco in the Rafael Devers trade. He spent the majority of the season with Triple-A Worcester, but did make three appearances for Boston in September. Harrison tossed a quality start against Tampa Bay in his penultimate outing and is likely the most stretched-out member of the bullpen.

Lucas Giolito Dealing With Elbow Issue, Will Not Be On Red Sox’ Wild Card Roster

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Red Sox righty Lucas Giolito is dealing with an elbow issue and won’t be included on Boston’s roster for their Wild Card Series showdown with the archrival Yankees, manager Alex Cora told reporters at today’s media session (link via Christopher Smith of MassLive.com). Cora did not provide a specific diagnosis or tip his hand as to whether Giolito would be available in subsequent rounds, should the Red Sox advance. Giolito would’ve been Boston’s starter for a potential Game 3 of the series. He’ll see a specialist today, MassLive’s Sean McAdam adds.

Giolito, 31, missed the entire 2024 season due to UCL surgery but returned with a flourish in 2025, firing 145 frames of 3.41 ERA ball. That number is inflated a bit by a poor start to the season; from June 10 onward, he made 19 starts with a 2.51 ERA. Giolito’s 19.7% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate contributed to more tepid evaluations from metrics like FIP (4.17) and SIERA (4.66), but his bottom-line results were unequivocally strong, even if their sustainability merited some skepticism.

Upon reaching 140 innings pitched this season, Giolito triggered a vesting clause in his $14MM club option that converted it into a $19MM mutual option. When he reached that threshold, it appeared all but certain that the right-hander would turn down his end of the mutual option and reenter the market. Suddenly, the health of his elbow clouds that decision. If the issue is serious, the Red Sox will surely decline their end and send Giolito into free agency anyhow, but he’ll return to the open market under very different circumstances than seemed likely even one week ago.

Giolito did experience a velocity drop of some note in September. After averaging 93.4 mph on his heater through the season’s first five months, he averaged 92.5 mph on his four-seamer over his final five appearances — including a season-low 92.1 mph in his final appearance. He still posted a 3.16 ERA over 25 2/3 innings in those outings, but he also issued 18 walks. At first glance, that could’ve been chalked up to fatigue for a pitcher who didn’t throw a single inning in ’24 but was pushing up toward 150 frames in the stretch run — but word of a possible elbow injury now makes that late slide all the more concerning.

The Red Sox figure to have more information on Giolito’s status later in the week, once he’s met with that specialist and discussed any findings with team brass. That’ll determine his availability — or lack thereof — for potential appearances in the ALDS, ALCS or World Series, depending how far Boston progresses in the postseason. For the series at hand, the elbow trouble for Giolito likely thrusts one of the team’s promising young lefties, like Connelly Early or Kyle Harrison, into that Game 3 start. Top prospect Payton Tolle was moved to the bullpen in early September and hasn’t pitched more than three innings in an outing since Sept. 29 as a result, so he’s not likely to get the nod.

Lucas Giolito Converts Club Option To Mutual Provision

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Lucas Giolito completed four innings against the Athletics tonight. That pushes him beyond 140 frames on the season, clinching a contractual milestone that’ll have an impact on the upcoming free agent class. Giolito has hit the vesting threshold needed to convert the Red Sox’s $14MM club option into a $19MM mutual option. That means he’ll be able to opt out in favor of a $1.5MM buyout and return to the open market in search of a multi-year deal.

Giolito is sure to go that route unless he suffers a major injury within the next few weeks. The 31-year-old righty is amidst his best season since he received down-ballot Cy Young votes each year between 2019-21. He has rebounded nicely from the elbow surgery that robbed him of his first year in Boston. Giolito returned this season on a $19MM player option. A Spring Training hamstring strain forced him to wait a few weeks to make his team debut, but he has been one of Boston’s most reliable starters behind Garrett Crochet over the past few months.

The righty’s first few starts were a little rocky. Giolito pitched to a 4.85 ERA across five appearances in May. He has performed well since then. Giolito has not allowed more than 3.41 earned runs per nine innings in any of the past four months. He carries a 2.86 ERA while averaging almost six innings per start in 18 appearances since the beginning of June. That doesn’t include tonight’s start, in which walks and a handful of inherited runners coming across the board left him with four earned runs through 4 2/3 innings.

All told, Giolito took a 3.30 ERA into today’s appearance. His 20% strikeout rate and 10% swinging strike mark are both a little below average. Giolito isn’t missing bats at the plus rates that he did during his early run with the White Sox, but he’s throwing strikes and working relatively deep into games. He has picked up 14 quality starts while tamping down on the home run issues that plagued him late in his time with Chicago (and during his brief stops with the Angels and Guardians in 2023).

Giolito is going into his age-31 season. He’s coming off a platform year that is arguably better than the one Luis Severino turned in for the Mets a year ago. Severino landed three years and $67MM with an opt-out after the second season. One could write that off as an anomaly by an A’s team that wanted to avoid a revenue sharing grievance and needed to overpay in the midst of a relocation. Even so, Giolito’s numbers stack up to those of Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80MM at age 31) and Michael Wacha (three years, $51MM at age 33) in their respective walk years.

Time will tell what kind of deal the market will bear for Giolito. His camp will probably take aim at four years. Even if that doesn’t materialize because of concerns about the dip in strikeouts or the home run issues he batted in previous seasons, he’ll easily beat the $17.5MM net call he faces in declining his end of the mutual option. That’s close to what rebound candidates like Walker Buehler, Alex Cobb and late-career Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander received last winter.

Boston can and almost certainly will tag Giolito with a qualifying offer, which would be in the $22MM range. In the likely event that Giolito declines, that’d entitle them to draft compensation. RosterResource estimates the Red Sox are narrowly above the $241MM luxury tax threshold. Assuming that’s the case, they’d receive a pick after the fourth round in 2026 if Giolito declines the QO and signs with another team.

Image courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images.

9 Contract Options To Keep An Eye On In September

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The final push of the 2025 season is upon is, which means postseason chases for fans lucky enough to root for contending clubs and offseason dreams for those whose clubs are already out of the running. It also means that players with vesting clauses in their contract and/or performance incentives are beginning to unlock bonuses related to plate appearances, innings pitched, games finished, etc.

In particular, there are a handful of club options that are worth keeping an eye on either for incentive purposes or for season-long rehabbers who’ll have a limited September window to audition for next year’s club. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco already highlighted the three vesting options of note last month, but we’ll still take a look at how those players are tracking and also shine a light on six more club/mutual options that’ll have some present financial ramifications as well as potential 2026 roster implications.

Here are nine options to keep in the back of your mind as the season’s final weeks play out…

Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Rays

Fairbanks’ three-year, $12MM extension with Tampa Bay contained a $7MM club option for the 2026 season, but he’s boosted that option’s value considerably. Fairbanks already triggered $1.5MM in escalators based on his total appearances in the first three seasons of the deal, and he’s maxed out a set of escalators based on his number of games finished in 2025, tacking another $2MM onto the option price. His option at this moment is valued at $10.5MM, but if he appears in even two more games this year, he’ll boost his 2023-25 appearance count to 150, triggering another $1MM escalator. If he appears in seven of Tampa Bay’s final 22 games, he’ll bump his 2025 appearance total to 60 and hit another $1MM escalator.

Despite all those escalators, MLBTR has learned that the option maxes out at $11MM. That salary for a reliever is steep for the Rays, but Fairbanks has pitched a career-high 52 1/3 innings and logged a 3.10 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate en route to 24 saves. Even if the Rays were hesitant to commit $11MM to a frequently injured reliever who’ll turn 32 in December, a team with lesser budgetary concerns would be willing to do. The option will very likely be picked up either way, but the steeper the cost, the likelier an offseason trade becomes.

Andrés Muñoz, RHP, Mariners

Muñoz’s four-year, $7.5MM contract has become one of the game’s great bargains. At the time of the agreement, he’d made just one appearance for the M’s and had only 23 2/3 major league innings under his belt due to Tommy John surgery. The four-year term bought out his final pre-arbitration year and all three arbitration seasons, while also giving Seattle options on his first three free agent years. It’s easy to say now that Muñoz would’ve earned more through arbitration, but it’s hard to blame a 22-year-old who’d scarcely pitched in the majors for locking in that life-changing payday, and there was some modest risk for the Mariners in the deal as well.

The first of those three option years has a $6MM base value, but Muñoz has already boosted that by $500K. He unlocked $250K option escalators when he reached 20 and 30 games finished on the season. He’s finished 39 games now, and he’ll hit additional $250K escalators when he finishes his 40th and 45th games of the season. The first of those is a lock, and the second is certainly within reach.

Muñoz’s contract also has an $8MM club option for 2027 and a $10MM club option for 2028. He can boost both those figures by $1MM with the same set of escalators based on his games finished in the next two seasons, and beginning next year, he can also earn an additional $2MM per season based on games finished.

John Means, LHP, Guardians

Coming off his second career Tommy John surgery, Means signed a one-year, $1MM deal with the Guardians. Cleveland knew full well he’d miss most of the season recovering from last summer’s UCL operation. Means has a $6MM club option, with no buyout. He can’t boost that sum any further, but he’s on the cusp of returning to the majors and making what’ll amount to a two- or three-start audition.

Means, 32, has made four minor league rehab starts and has pitched well. He’s tossed 13 1/3 innings and yielded four earned runs (2.70 ERA) on eight hits and five walks with 13 punchouts. He’d been slated to make his final rehab start today before being scratched with an illness, but a return to the majors could happen as soon as next weekend.

When healthy, Means has been a high-quality starter. He’s posted a 3.68 ERA in 401 big league innings, all coming with the Orioles. He’s a former Opening Day starter and All-Star for Baltimore who has twice topped 140 innings in a season. A pair of UCL surgeries has limited him to just 52 1/3 innings since Opening Day 2022, however.

The Athletic’s Zack Meisel suggests that as long as Means is healthy, the option will be picked up. The Guards have committed a full year to rehabilitating the talented lefty. And, as explored at MLBTR last night, Cleveland has an uncharacteristic need for some pitching upgrades. A $6MM gamble on Means isn’t exactly a pricey roll of the dice, but the Guardians are one of the sport’s lowest-payroll clubs. If Means returns next week and gets rocked in his only two or three big league starts this year, it doesn’t feel like a given that they’ll dedicate that $6MM sum to him. If he looks even close to his old form, it seems like a reasonable risk to take. His handful of starts will be worth watching with a careful eye for Cleveland fans.

Jose Urquidy, RHP, Tigers

Urquidy is in a very similar situation to that of Means. He’s rehabbing from a second career Tommy John surgery and signed a one-year, $1MM deal with a $4MM club option for the 2026 season. Like Means, he’s on a minor league rehab assignment right now and could be activated in the near future. The former Astros righty tossed three scoreless innings for Triple-A Toledo three days ago and has now pitched 14 2/3 minor league innings with a 4.30 ERA and a 12-to-3 K/BB ratio.

Urquidy and Means have nearly identical career innings totals, though Urquidy’s 405 frames have come in a more condensed five seasons. From 2019-22, the right-hander posted a 3.74 ERA with a 20.3% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate in 342 innings for Houston. He was hit hard in a 2023 season that was shortened by shoulder troubles (5.29 ERA in 63 frames) and didn’t pitch in 2024 due to the elbow/forearm discomfort that eventually prompted his Tommy John surgery in early June last year.

If Urquidy comes back anywhere close to that 2019-22 form, a $4MM option should be a no-brainer, but a rocky performance could give the Tigers reason to pause. Urquidy’s return will also be worth monitoring since he could pitch his way into postseason roster consideration for Detroit.

Tyler Kinley, RHP, Braves

Atlanta looked past Kinley’s dismal 5.66 ERA with the Rockies and acquired him in July, clearly believing that the hard-throwing righty was only a few tweaks away from success. It’s been a masterstroke. Kinley has pitched 13 2/3 innings and allowed just one run since being traded to Atlanta in exchange for 26-year-old Double-A righty Austin Smith. The Braves have Kinley throwing even more sliders and working with a slightly lower release point, and the results have been stellar — albeit in a small sample.

The Braves were out of the postseason chase by the time the deadline rolled around, so the mere fact that they traded for a potential free agent with a 2026 club option signaled that they were open to exercising that option in spite of his struggles. Kinley’s success in Atlanta makes it quite likely he’ll return, but there’s a good chance it won’t be at the $5MM base price of his value. His contract contains option escalators based on games finished, the first of which kicks in at 20. Kinley has currently finished 18 games this year, including three with Atlanta. If he finishes two more, he’ll boost next year’s option to $5.5MM — and he’ll also unlock a $500K bonus for the current season.

It’s not a major change, but those incentives would bump him from a $2.08MM luxury tax hit to $2.875MM. Assuming the options on Kinley, Pierce Johnson, Chris Sale, Ozzie Albies and Ha-Seong Kim are all exercised, Atlanta will have $207.5MM committed to next year’s books when the offseason begins (before accounting for arbitration raises).

Harrison Bader, OF, Phillies

Bader has proven to be a terrific pickup for the Phils, hitting .307/.374/.477 in his first 99 plate appearances since being traded over from Minnesota. He’s up to 406 plate appearances on the season, which is just enough for his incentive structure to kick in. The $1.5MM buyout on Bader’s $10MM mutual option jumped to $1.7MM when he reached 400 plate appearances, and it’ll climb to $1.9MM at 425 plate appearances and $2.1MM if he reaches 450. It’s a minor bump, but for a Phillies club that’s a third-time luxury payor in the top tier of penalization, they’ll pay a 110% tax on the prorated portion of that extra $600K.

Given the strength of Bader’s play, they’ll happily pay that, of course, and the increased buyout does nothing to change the fact that Bader will return to free agency this winter. It’s been over a decade since the last time both sides of a mutual option were exercised in MLB (Brewers, Aramis Ramirez in 2014). Bader’s plus defense and strong season at the plate should position him for a multi-year deal in the offseason.

Jorge Polanco, INF, Mariners

Polanco is nine plate appearances shy of converting his 2026 mutual option into a $6MM player option. He’s also already tacked $2MM onto his 2025 salary via plate appearance incentives, and when he hits the 450 mark needed to trigger that player option, he’ll unlock another $500K. That’ll bump the veteran switch-hitter up to a $9.5MM salary in 2025. He’d get another $500K if he can make it to 500 plate appearances, but it’s not a guarantee he’ll get 59 plate appearances in between now and season’s end.

Though he’s slumped considerably in the middle months of the season, Polanco has heated up again in the past three weeks. He’s slashing .254/.319/.471 with 23 homers and 17 doubles in only 441 plate appearances — miles better than the down year he had with the M’s in 2024 before undergoing offseason knee surgery. He’s played well enough that he’s probably going to decline a $6MM player option anyhow, but it’ll be a nice safety net in the event of an injury (so long as it’s not a lower-half injury, as his contract contains language that’d prevent the player option from kicking in if he’s dealing with an injury related to that offseason knee procedure).

Matt Strahm, LHP, Phillies

Strahm is on the cusp of having his contract’s 2026 option vest. While that originally came at a $4.5MM base value, he’s already boosted the option value to $6.5MM via $1MM escalators at 40 and 50 innings pitched. Once he reaches 60, the option value increases to its maximum $7.5MM. The contract also stipulates that if Strahm pitches 60 innings and passes a physical at the end of the season, it’ll automatically vest.

Strahm has been excellent in 2025, logging 56 1/3 frames of 2.88 ERA ball with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He’s saved six games and tallied 17 holds. The Phillies would’ve picked up the option anyhow, but this removes any doubt.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, Red Sox

Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM contract with Boston couldn’t have started much worse. The typically durable righty went down with a UCL injury in spring training last year, ultimately requiring surgery that wiped out his entire 2024 season. His 2025 return didn’t appear to be going well early on, either. Through his first seven starts, the 31-year-old was shelled for a 6.42 ERA in just 33 2/3 innings.

Since June 10, however, Giolito has returned to form. He’s started 15 games, totaled 91 2/3 innings and logged a pristine 2.26 earned run average. His 21.1% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in that time are both about half a percentage point worse than league average among starting pitchers, but it’s been a strong run overall, pushing his season ERA down to a tidy 3.38.

That turnaround would make Giolito’s $14MM club option likely to be picked up — but it’s not likely to remain a club option. The right-hander’s contract stipulates that with 140 innings pitched this year, that option converts into a $19MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout. With 125 1/3 innings under his belt, Giolito only needs another 14 2/3 frames in the final three weeks to convert that option to mutual status. If and when he reaches that point, Giolito is a lock to decline his half of the mutual option, collect that buyout and return to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. The Sox could — and likely would — counter with a qualifying offer, but the hefty contracts for mid-rotation arms like Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80MM), Sean Manaea (three years, $75MM), Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM), Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Luis Severino (three years, $67MM) in recent offseasons all suggest that Giolito can reasonably seek a pricey three- or four-year deal ahead of what’ll be his age-31 season.

Vesting Options Update: Giolito, Polanco, Strahm

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The upcoming free agent class doesn’t feature a ton of players whose contracts contain vesting options. Marcus Stroman’s deal with the Yankees would’ve contained an $18MM player option had he reached 140 innings, but an early-season knee injury made that impossible. The Yanks released him earlier this month anyhow.

While Stroman’s option was a non-factor, a trio of players are closing in on their own vesting provisions.

  • Lucas Giolito, Red Sox RHP ($14MM club option converts to $19MM mutual option at 140 innings; $1.5MM buyout in either case)

Giolito is up to 106 2/3 innings across 19 starts. He needs another 33 1/3 frames to convert next season’s $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. That’d allow him to decline his end and retest free agency as he heads into his age-31 campaign. He’d very likely do so and could command a three-plus year contract.

The righty’s season numbers aren’t exceptional. Giolito carries a 3.63 earned run average with a 19.6% strikeout percentage that is his lowest since his terrible 2018 campaign. He had a trio of blowups in his first seven appearances after missing all of last season to an internal brace surgery. He has been locked in over the past two-plus months. In his last 12 starts, Giolito carries a 2.34 ERA while averaging over six innings per appearance. His 20.4% strikeout rate still isn’t great, and he has benefitted from a .229 opponents average on balls in play, but he at least looks the part of a durable mid-rotation arm again.

Giolito has a good shot to reach 140 innings. He’d need to average a little under six innings per start over his next six appearances. If he stays healthy, he should take the ball at least seven times — which would give him leeway in case he has one bad outing in which he’s knocked out after two or three frames. Even a minimal injured list stint would take it off the table, though.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said over the weekend that the Sox had no intention of changing Giolito’s workload to keep him from vesting the option. No front office executive would publicly admit otherwise, of course, but there’s no reason to doubt Breslow in this case. The Red Sox are trying to secure a postseason berth. Even if they were out of contention, limiting a player’s workload so they could exercise an option to keep that player at a below-market rate wouldn’t make for an especially good relationship. If he gets to free agency, Giolito could take aim at something like the three-year deals secured by Luis Severino ($67MM with an opt-out after the second season) and Sean Manaea ($75MM with deferrals).

  • Jorge Polanco, Mariners DH/2B ($8MM mutual option converts to $6MM player option at 450 plate appearances, escalates to $8MM player option at 550 plate appearances; $750K buyout in either case)*

Polanco re-signed with Seattle last offseason on a somewhat complicated deal that reflected his health uncertainty coming off left knee surgery. The deal contains an $8MM mutual option which would vest into a $6MM player provision if Polanco reaches 450 plate appearances. Polanco has taken 395 trips to the dish. He’s 55 plate appearances from reaching the vesting mark, and he’d escalate the player option price back to $8MM if he tallies another 155 trips before season’s end.

Initially, the Mariners looked to have struck gold with that surprise re-signing. Polanco blasted nine home runs while hitting .384 through the end of April. Even with knee and side discomfort limiting him to early-season DH work, he looked rejuvenated. Polanco’s production completely tanked over the next two months, however. He had a huge July but is back to a .213/.275/.298 showing in 14 games this month.

Polanco has hit .209/.283/.344 across 315 plate appearances since the beginning of May. His season batting line (.245/.310/.439) is still above-average, but there have been significant peaks and valleys. Cole Young has taken over at second base. While Eugenio Suárez’s impending free agency leaves an opening at third base, Polanco hasn’t shown he’s healthy enough to play there regularly. There’s a good chance the Mariners would buy out their end of the option if it remains a mutual provision. Polanco only needs to start another 13 or 14 games to give himself more security.

That shouldn’t be a problem with 36 games remaining on the schedule. The M’s have sat him in each of their past two games against left-handed opponents, but he continues to play regularly versus righties. He’s highly unlikely to get all the way to 550 PA’s to push the player option to $8MM, but he should easily unlock the $6MM player option that’ll give him the unilateral decision whether to return to free agency.

* The vesting provision also requires that Polanco hasn’t suffered a lower body injury that’d prevent him from being ready for Opening Day 2026.

  • Matt Strahm, Phillies LHP ($5.5MM team option becomes guaranteed at $7.5MM at 60 innings)*

Strahm’s extension with the Phillies contained a $4.5MM club option for the 2026 season. The southpaw has already pushed that to $5.5MM and will escalate it to $6.5MM when he records two more outs. He’s 10 2/3 innings away from hitting the 60-inning threshold, at which point the price jumps to $7.5MM and becomes guaranteed.

In his case, it’s probably immaterial. Even if Strahm suffers a minor injury that keeps him from getting to 60 frames, the Phillies would probably exercise the option. Strahm is having another impressive season, working to a 3.10 ERA with six saves and 14 holds. His velocity has dropped a tick and he has lost a few points on his strikeout rate, but he has still punched out an above-average 27.7% of opponents. Strahm is one of Rob Thomson’s more trusted setup arms.

* The vesting provision also requires that Strahm pass a postseason physical.

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