Which Clubs Could Provide A Landing Spot For The Top Remaining Starters?
Every offseason, at least a handful of free agents linger on the market well into spring training. At times, that's been true even of the top names on the market. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado both signed their free agent contracts in February. Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery all signed contracts in March during the 2023-24 offseason.
Things are a bit different this winter. The very top names among this year's crop of free agents have all come off the board. Framber Valdez and, to a lesser extent, Zac Gallen were the remaining big-ticket items on the market before signing in Detroit and Arizona, respectively.
Though there's no marquee superstar left unsigned, there are still some good starters on the board. Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell and Max Scherzer top the remaining group. In Scherzer's case, it's not entirely clear whether he'll sign prior to Opening Day. Scherzer is healthy and ready to sign at any time, but he told The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal late last month that he's being selective with his next home and would be content to wait to sign midseason if an opportunity on one of his preferred teams does not present itself. It stands to reason that Scherzer prefers a clear win-now club with realistic postseason aspirations. Any preferences beyond that -- be they geographic, monetary or otherwise -- are personal preferences that he has not divulged.
Giolito and Littell, however, are ready-made mid-rotation starters who, unlike their quadragenarian free agent counterpart, seemingly aren't lingering as a means of personal preference. Each has his flaws, certainly, but there's little doubt that either is a big league-caliber starter and that there are teams around the game who'd benefit from adding them to the rotation.
Let's take a look at each pitcher and which teams might have the remaining budget space and/or rotation need to make a play.
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Latest On Braves’ Rotation
The Braves’ rotation has been a talking point in the early days of spring training, with a few injuries already popping up, leading to speculation about the club looking for an external addition. Atlanta has been connected to pitchers like Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt this offseason but Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that the club’s interest in those two pitchers was overstated. Burns says they did not seriously pursue Bassitt before he signed with the Orioles and have not been involved with Giolito, who remains a free agent.
It’s a curious spot for the club to be in. Injuries to the starting rotation played a huge role in tanking the 2025 season. They went into the campaign as contenders but ended up at 76-86. Just about every starter got hurt, so that the only guy to surpass 126 innings was Bryce Elder, who posted a 5.30 earned run average.
Going into the winter, general manager Alex Anthopoulos said that bolstering the rotation would be a “point of emphasis” but he hasn’t made any significant changes there. He clearly had some money to spend but has invested it elsewhere, having signed outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, infielder Ha-Seong Kim, as well as relievers Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias to eight-figure deals.
That left the rotation looking vulnerable coming into camp and the picture has only gotten worse since then. Spencer Schwellenbach was placed on the 60-day injured list last week due to elbow inflammation. Hurston Waldrep is now getting checked out due to his own elbow soreness.
The rotation still has some upside, in theory, but with question marks everywhere. Chris Sale is the ace but he’s about to turn 37 years old and has been very injury prone in recent years. Spencer Strider missed most of 2024 due to elbow surgery and had lackluster results when he was back on the mound last year. Reynaldo López only made one start last year due to shoulder surgery. Grant Holmes was diagnosed with a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament last year and is currently trying to return while avoiding surgery.
That group could be a strong front four if everyone is healthy and pitching well but that’s a massive if. The depth beyond that group is also questionable. Martín Pérez and Carlos Carrasco are in the organization on minor league deals but neither inspires a ton of confidence. Didier Fuentes is a notable prospect but he’s only 20 years old and got shelled when called up in emergency fashion last year. Jhancarlos Lara and José Suarez are on the roster but seem to be depth/swing types. JR Ritchie is another of the club’s top prospects but he has only 11 Triple-A starts under his belt.
There’s an argument for adding a reliable veteran to strengthen the back of the rotation, even if it doesn’t raise the ceiling much, but Anthopoulos recently said the club is looking for a playoff-caliber starter. Up until fairly recently, the starting pitching market still had a lot of attractive names on it but Atlanta has not pounced on that opportunity. Guys like Bassitt, Zac Gallen, Nick Martinez, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Chris Paddack, José Urquidy, Tomoyuki Sugano, Aaron Civale, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez have agreed to modest one-year deals in the past week or so.
Perhaps the club will still pivot to add some reliable innings. If they don’t like Giolito, the market still features Zack Littell, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson, Marcus Stroman and others.
It’s also possible the club is out of dry powder. RosterResource projects them for a $264MM payroll and $260MM competitive balance tax number. That payroll is about $50MM above where they finished last year and the CBT number puts them within $4MM of the second tier of the tax, which they may not want to cross.
If it’s the case that there’s no spending capacity left, it looks like a strange offseason for the club. They invested in several areas of the roster but didn’t target the area that was supposed to be a primary focus. Perhaps Anthopoulos can line up a trade of a young pitcher who is cheap and controllable, but the price on such pitchers will be high. Maybe they’ll get lucky and their guys will stay healthier than last year but the injury bug is already biting before spring games have even begun.
Photo courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images
Orioles Interested In Lucas Giolito
The Orioles are known to be looking for more starting pitching. They’ve been connected to Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Zac Gallen in recent weeks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Lucas Giolito is also someone they are seriously considering. Giolito has also received reported interest from Detroit and Atlanta in the past month.
The O’s have made a few moves to address their rotation already this offseason. They acquired Shane Baz from the Rays and re-signed veteran Zach Eflin. They also subtracted Grayson Rodriguez, trading him to the Angels for Taylor Ward.
As of now, they should have Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Baz and Eflin in four spots. The fifth spot would most likely go to Dean Kremer, who has pretty consistently posted an earned run average in the low 4.00s for a few years now.
All teams need more than five starters to get through a season in the modern game, so depth is important. Tyler Wells missed most of the past two seasons due to ulnar collateral ligament surgery but was a viable back-end starter before that. Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich and Brandon Young have roster spots but haven’t clicked in the majors yet. They all have options and can be kept in Triple-A as optionable depth. Albert Suárez is in the mix on a minor league deal for some veteran non-roster depth. Trey Gibson doesn’t have a roster spot yet but he is one of the top pitching prospects in the league and has already reached the Triple-A level, so he should be pushing for a debut in 2026.
It’s a decent group on the whole. Arguably, they need upside more than they need additional depth. They don’t really have anyone you would call an ace. Rogers ended up having a great 2025, finishing with a 1.81 ERA. However, he started the season on the injured list, recovering from a right knee subluxation. Even once he was healthy, he was kept in the minors for a while. He didn’t get recalled for good until June. Bradish missed most of the past two seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Baz has intriguing upside but just posted a 4.87 ERA last year.
Last winter, Baltimore went with older veterans with theoretically stable floors but less upside, signing Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Kyle Gibson. Those moves mostly did not work out well and the rotation was a major flaw in 2025.
Whether Giolito can provide upside over the guys currently on the roster is debatable. He did once seem like a borderline ace but it’s been a few years since he showed that form. He made 72 starts for the White Sox over the 2019 to 2021 seasons with a 3.47 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate, getting at least one Cy Young vote in each of those campaigns. But his numbers dipped over the next two years, as his ERAs were closer to 5.00 with strikeout rates in the 25% range. He then missed 2024 due to UCL surgery.
In 2025, he bounced back, to a degree. He made 26 starts for the Red Sox with a 3.41 ERA. He was even better after a cold start, with a 2.51 ERA over his final 19 appearances. But he only struck out 19.7% of batters faced on the year. Even in that strong push over his final 19 starts, he only punched out 20.3% of batters faced. He wasn’t able to pitch in the playoffs due to flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing arm. He has said that the issue subsided shortly after the season ended.
Given Baltimore’s current rotation picture, they could surely use the 2019-2021 version of Giolito. His more recent output wouldn’t be as exciting as someone like Valdez but he would surely be cheaper. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Valdez to get $150MM over five years and Giolito $32MM over two years. With February just over the horizon, it becomes more likely that Valdez pivots to some kind of short-term deal with opt-outs, but he should still be more expensive that Giolito on an annual basis.
They should have a bit of powder dry. RosterResource projects the Orioles for a $148MM payroll next year. They started 2025 at $165MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they want to run a similar number this year, they should have $15-20MM to spend. If they could line up a Ryan Mountcastle trade, since he’s more or less blocked by Pete Alonso, that would free up almost $7MM more.
Photo courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images
Braves Interested In Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt
The Braves have made offseason additions in the bullpen, the infield and the outfield thus far, bringing in veterans Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, Ha-Seong Kim, Mauricio Dubon, Jorge Mateo and Mike Yastrzemski via free agency or trade. (Kim suffered a hand injury after signing and will miss several months of the season.) The rotation, however, remains untouched as January nears its conclusion.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports on MLB Network (video link) that Atlanta is in the market for some form of rotation upgrade, however, specifically listing right-handers Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt as free agents of interest. Neither pitcher received a qualifying offer, so neither would require any draft forfeitures. The Braves are over the luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource’s estimates, but they weren’t tax payors in 2025 so the penalty for signing either veteran would be minimal.
Giolito, 31, started 26 games for the Red Sox in 2025 after missing the 2024 season due to a UCL procedure. He pitched well enough to convert his 2026 club option into a mutual option, which he declined in order to return to the open market. Giolito started the season in rocky fashion (6.42 ERA through seven starts) before rebounding to the tune of a 2.51 ERA in his final 19 starts and 111 1/3 innings. His 20.3% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate over that dominant run of 19 starts don’t support such a strong earned run average, and metrics like SIERA (4.67) and FIP (3.97) were much more bearish. Still, Giolito performed like a capable midrotation arm at the very least.
Were it not for a late elbow injury, Giolito’s market might have been more aggressive. (Although, had he been fully healthy, Boston may also have given more consideration to extending a qualifying offer.) Giolito’s surgically repaired ulnar collateral ligament received a clean bill of health at the time, but September testing on the right-hander revealed some irritation in his flexor tendon and a bone issue in his elbow that required some downtime. He missed the Red Sox’ postseason run as a result, but by November he was viewed as “fully healthy” and ready for a normal offseason.
A former first-round pick and top prospect, Giolito has had a roller-coaster tenure in the big leagues. He struggled greatly in his first 45 MLB appearances from 2016-18 (5.48 ERA) before settling in as a durable No. 2 starter with huge strikeout numbers for the White Sox. From 2019-21, he pitched 427 2/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. Giolito stayed healthy and kept missing bats from 2022-23, but home run troubles inflated his ERA to 4.88 over 63 starts between those two seasons. He signed a two-year deal with the Red Sox covering the 2024-25 seasons and affording him the opportunity to opt out after ’24. A spring UCL injury that year wiped out his 2024 campaign and naturally led him to pick up his ’25 player option rather than test the market last winter.
Despite the up-and-down nature of his results, Giolito carries a respectable 4.30 ERA in his career — and that number dips to a flat 4.00 if you set aside the struggles he experienced from ages 21 to 23 back in ’16-’18. Last year’s career-low strikeout rate is a concern, but Giolito’s 93.3 mph average four-seamer is an exact match for his career levels, so it’s not as though he came back from surgery working with dramatically reduced stuff. Clubs aren’t going to view him as the clear playoff-caliber starter he was during his three-year peak with the ChiSox, but it’s not out of the question that he can get back to pitching at that level. Even last year’s level of output would make him a third or fourth starter in a good rotation.
As for Bassitt, he’s considerably older but has been more durable and more consistent. The 36-year-old righty (37 next month) ranks seventh in the majors in games started and eighth in innings pitched over the past six seasons. During that time, he’s pitched to a combined 3.57 earned run average with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and a 44% ground-ball rate. All of those are right at the league average, if not slightly better.
Bassitt has made at least 30 starts and pitched at least 170 innings in four straight seasons. His 2025 campaign featured 170 1/3 frames with a 3.96 ERA and rate stats right in line with his overall marks from the past six seasons. Bassitt also shined with the Blue Jays in the postseason, shifting to a relief role without missing a beat. He fired 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball and allowed only three hits and two walks while punching out 10 in that time.
If there are any red flags with Bassitt, they’re not as much with his recent performance as they are simply with the aging process of any pitcher. He’ll pitch all of the upcoming season at 37. Last year’s results were strong, but it’s worth noting that his 91.5 mph average fastball was the lowest of his career by a decent margin. His prior career-low was 2023’s 92.4 mph. He bounced back slightly with a 92.6 mph average in 2024 but lost about a mile per hour off that heater in ’25. That said, it didn’t have an impact on his ability to miss bats; Bassitt’s strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate were both better in 2025 than in 2024.
Though the Braves currently have a talented rotation, there are plenty of question marks regarding both health and workload among the bunch. Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo Lopez and Hurston Waldrep rank among the best quintets in the sport from a pure talent level. However, Sale was limited to 20 starts due to fractures in his ribcage. Strider made 23 starts but posted a 4.45 ERA with diminished rate stats in his first season back from UCL surgery. Schwellenbach started only 17 games due to a fracture in his elbow. Lopez made only one start due to shoulder surgery. Waldrep, a former first-rounder and top prospect, looked very good in nine major league starts but had shakier numbers in Triple-A and has just 63 1/3 big league innings under his belt.
Atlanta has some depth options in the form of Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz, Grant Holmes and Didier Fuentes, the latter of whom has garnered some top-100 prospect love this offseason. Still, given the plethora of injury troubles Atlanta faced, Sale’s age/injury track record and Strider’s downturn in results, augmenting the current group would be wise. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently argued as much at greater length in a recent piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
The Braves’ current cash payroll of $262MM would already be a franchise record, while their $258MM of luxury tax obligations are the second-highest in franchise history. Bringing in either Bassitt or Giolito would surely bump Atlanta into the second tier of luxury penalization but would leave them shy of the third tier — the point at which a team’s top draft pick is dropped by ten spots. The Braves will owe a 20% tax on the next $6MM or so spent ($1.2MM) and a 32% tax on the next $20MM. If we presume Bassitt is targeting something similar to the two-year, $40MM deal signed by fellow 37-year-old starter Merrill Kelly, he’d come with about $5.7MM of taxes for the Braves, on top of his actual salary.
Tigers Showing Interest In Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito
The Tigers entered the offseason with a focus on adding pitching help, and that goal has manifested itself in the form of two notable bullpen arms (Kenley Jansen and the re-signed Kyle Finnegan) and a rotation candidate coming off a successful stint in South Korea (Drew Anderson). Other pitchers like Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen, Michael King, Ryan Helsley, Pete Fairbanks, and Brad Keller have also been linked to Detroit at various times this winter, and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon report that the club has also shown interest in Chris Bassitt and Lucas Giolito.
Somewhat surprisingly, Detroit is the first team known to have interest in either Bassitt or Giolito, even though the right-handers are coming off successful 2025 seasons. This could reflect the relatively slow-moving nature of the free agent starting pitching market, as such top arms as Suarez, Gallen, and Framber Valdez are all still looking for their next contracts. With those larger names still unsigned and some trade candidates (i.e. Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore) still potentially available, teams may wish to fully explore their chances with these pitchers before turning to more second-tier options like Bassitt or Giolito.
Bassitt’s age also doesn’t help him, as he turns 37 in February. Still, there isn’t much indication Bassitt is slowing down, as he has thrown 723 innings over the last four seasons with the Mets and Blue Jays with just two minimal stints on the injured list. The second of those brief IL stints (a bout of lower back inflammation) occurred this past September, and might’ve cost Bassitt a spot in Toronto’s playoff rotation. Bassitt wasn’t healthy enough to participate in the ALDS, but upon returning in a relief capacity for the ALCS and World Series, the righty had a sparkling 1.04 ERA over 8 2/3 postseason innings.
Over the last four seasons, Bassitt has a 3.77 ERA, 22.4% strikeout rate, and 7.5% walk rate. The K% is a little below league average and the BB% is slightly above average, plus Bassitt has done a very good job of limiting hard contact. He isn’t going to wow anyone with his velocity or swing-and-miss ability, but Bassitt has been able to keep hitters off-balance with what is technically an eight-pitch arsenal.
MLB Trade Rumors projected Bassitt for a two-year, $38MM contract this winter while ranking the veteran 24th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents. Giolito wasn’t far behind in the #27 spot, projected for two years and $32MM. That number might well have been higher if it wasn’t for a bout of right flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow that arose right before the Red Sox began their playoff run. Giolito has since described the “freak injury” as just a temporary problem that quickly subsided, and testing revealed no damage to his surgically-repaired UCL.
Giolito missed the entire 2024 season due to UCL surgery, and he had a Tommy John surgery right at the start of his pro career in 2012. A hamstring strain also delayed the start of his 2025 season and his comeback from his most recent elbow procedure, but Giolito had a 3.41 ERA over 145 innings for the Sox. This solid bottom-line performance was undermined, however, by a 4.65 SIERA and an array of subpar Statcast numbers.
Giolito doesn’t turn 32 until July and potentially offers more upside, even though he hasn’t looked like a true frontline pitcher since his heyday with the White Sox from 2019-21. Bassitt is the older and more stable of the two, as while he probably isn’t suited to hold down a front-of-the-rotation spot, he is about as sturdy a choice possible for the back end of a pitching staff.
In theory, Detroit is only looking for back-end rotation help, as the team’s starting five is set on paper as Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Reese Olson, and Anderson. Troy Melton, Keider Montero, and Sawyer Gipson-Long are among the depth candidates slated for either Triple-A starts, bullpen work, or perhaps just the fifth starter’s role if Anderson is instead deployed as a reliever.
Beyond 2026, however, Olson is under team control and the Tigers hold a $10MM club option on Anderson for 2027. Skubal, Flaherty, and Mize are all slated to enter free agency next winter, so bringing in a starter on a multi-year contract would help the Tigers lengthen their rotation in 2026 and add some measure of stability going forward.
Skubal’s situation looms large over Detroit’s future plans, as it remains possible that the Tigers could still trade the superstar rather than risk letting him walk for nothing but a compensatory draft pick. Skubal’s upcoming arbitration hearing provides a more immediate impact to the rotation, as Rosenthal and Sammon note that the Tigers’ ability to spend on Bassitt, Giolito, or other roster upgrades will surely be impacted by whether or not Skubal will cost $19MM or $32MM in 2026.
RosterResource estimates the Tigers’ 2026 payroll at roughly $171.2MM, which is up from their $154.7MM estimated payroll from the end of the 2025 campaign. The $13MM gap in Skubal’s salary possibilities isn’t nothing, but Detroit fans eager to see the team make a bigger transactional splash won’t be pleased if the club is resisting even a relatively modest investment in the Bassitt/Giolito tier of players. Broadcasting uncertainty is also a revenue factor, as the Tigers are one of nine teams who have ended their agreements with Main Street Sports.
Red Sox Notes: Giolito, Bullpen
Despite declining his end of a mutual option for the 2026 season, right-hander Lucas Giolito was and is very open to returning to the Red Sox, the pitcher himself told WEEI’s Rob Bradford in a guest appearance on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. However, Giolito also was realistic about the slim chances of that happening in the wake of Boston’s acquisition of Sonny Gray (and Johan Oviedo). Asked if the trades for Gray and Oviedo were a signal that the team plans to move on, Giolito replied, “That’s what I think,” adding that the “writing is on the wall” with regard to the fact that a reunion is unlikely.
Giolito delved further into his free agent experience a second time around, explaining that he’s more focused on what he can control this time around instead of stressing over the day-to-day of the process. He’s upped his workout regimen and is experimenting with reincorporating a sinker into his repertoire. He hasn’t thrown a two-seamer since the 2018 season but is working out at Cressey Performance Center this winter and working on an updated version of the pitch.
Though Giolito will likely be taking that new-look sinker to another club, the Red Sox don’t figure to be done on the pitching front. Tim Healey of the Boston Globe breaks down the team’s bullpen, highlighting the lack of established options beyond Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock and Greg Weissert while noting that at least one, if not two external additions could be in the cards for Breslow in the final few months of the offseason.
The Red Sox are paying Jordan Hicks $12MM in each of the next two seasons, so he’ll surely have a leash of some note, but he’s coming off a lost season in which he was rocked for a 6.59 ERA while posting a career-worst 18.5% strikeout rate. Manager Alex Cora talked up Jovani Moran as a potential left-handed option, but the 28-year-old has struggled through injury and poor performance since a promising rookie campaign with the Twins back in 2022.
While Boston is lacking in established southpaw options, much of the free agent market has thinned out considerably in recent weeks. A reunion with veteran Justin Wilson would make sense, speculatively speaking, but each of Steven Matz (Rays), Gregory Soto (Pirates), Hoby Milner (Cubs), Caleb Thielbar (Cubs), Caleb Ferguson (Reds), Drew Pomeranz (Angels) and Sean Newcomb (White Sox) has already signed this winter. Wilson, Danny Coulombe, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin and Brent Suter are all still available. JoJo Romero is the most obvious name on the trade market, if the Red Sox want to circle back for what would be a third trade with the Cardinals.
Tatsuya Imai To Be Posted November 19th
TODAY: Imai has officially been posted, as the league informed teams today. Imai’s posting window opens tomorrow at 7am CT and closes on January 2 at 4pm CT.
NOVEMBER 12: It was reported last week that right-hander Tatsuya Imai would be posted by the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball. His agent Scott Boras met with members of the media today at the general managers meeting and said the posting will become official on November 19th. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to pass it along.
Once the posting becomes official, it will open up a 45-day window for Imai and Boras to negotiate will all 30 major league clubs. Technically, they will have until early January to work something out. It’s probably fair to expect a deal to come together before the holidays, when the hot stove activity tends to slow down.
Imai should garner lots of interest based on his results and also his age. His earned run average in Japan has been 2.34 or lower in three straight seasons now, including a 1.92 mark in 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked up from 24.4% in 2023 to 26.3% last year and 27.8% this year. Meanwhile, his walk rate has dropped from 11.4% to 9.8% to 7% in those years.
He is currently 27 years old, turning 28 in May. Teams have shown that they value that youth. Recent deals for young players like Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee have surged beyond expectations.
Imai won’t have as much earning power as Yamamoto, who secured $325MM over 12 years. Yamamoto was even younger, having just turned 25 when he was posted, and also had the superior track record of performance. Still, Imai should find lots of interest. MLBTR predicted he could secure a $150MM guarantee on a six-year deal.
The signing team will also owe the Lions a posting fee, on top of the guarantee they give Imai. The Lions will get 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark. If Imai were to sign a deal matching MLBTR’s $150MM projection, his new team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee.
The righty has already been connected to the Mets. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported today that the Yankees will be looking at Imai, as well as Lucas Giolito. The Yanks go into 2026 with their rotation in flux. Due to injuries, it projects to be much different later in the year compared to the end of camp. Gerrit Cole is still recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery and won’t be ready by Opening Day. Carlos Rodón underwent a procedure to remove loose bodies from his left elbow and is expected to start the year on the injured list as well. Clarke Schmidt had internal brace surgery in July and could rejoin the club in the second half.
With those absences, the Yankees project to start the season with Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Will Warren and Allan Winans in the rotation. Adding to that group would be an understandable target. It’s possible that things get tight later in the year as Cole, Rodón and Schmidt get healthy, but other injuries could also pop up along the way.
Giolito should be a far more affordable addition than Imai. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $32MM deal. He was once a borderline ace but hasn’t been at that level in a while. His ERA finished near 5.00 in 2022 and 2023. He missed 2024 due to internal brace surgery. He returned in 2025 and posted a 3.41 ERA but with less impressive stuff under the hood. HIs 19.7% strikeout rate was below league average and well below the 33.7% mark he had back in 2020. He also finished the season back on the IL with an elbow issue, though he says that has now passed.
There are plenty of other starting pitchers the Yankees could consider at different price levels. Presumably, their plans in the rotation will depend upon what they do elsewhere. They have to address their outfield, with Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham having both reached free agency. It’s also possible they look to remake a bullpen that was a source of frustration in 2025.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images.
MLBTR Podcast: Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The gambling scandal involving Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz of the Guardians (3:15)
- Shane Bieber deciding to stay with the Blue Jays (8:35)
- Jack Flaherty deciding to stay with the Tigers (18:45)
- The Rays declining their club option on Pete Fairbanks (26:00)
- Trevor Story deciding to stay with the Red Sox (35:35)
- The Tigers issuing a qualifying offer to Gleyber Torres (43:20)
- The Cubs issuing a qualifying offer to Shota Imanaga (46:25)
- The Red Sox not issuing a qualifying offer to Lucas Giolito (53:10)
- The Yankees not issuing a qualifying offer to Devin Williams (55:20)
- The Rockies hiring Paul DePodesta as president of baseball operations (1:00:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- Offseason Preview Megapod: Top Trade Candidates – listen here
- Bo Bichette’s Health, Kazuma Okamoto, And Dylan Cease’s Market – listen here
- The Phillies’ Outfield, Tarik Skubal, And Hiring College Coaches – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images
Lucas Giolito Wants To Return To Red Sox, Says He’s “Fully Healthy” After Late-Season “Freak Injury”
After UCL surgery cost him the entire 2024 season, Lucas Giolito returned in 2025 to post solid results (3.41 ERA in 145 innings) in the Red Sox rotation before the injury bug arose just prior to the start of Boston’s Wild Card Series with the Yankees. Right flexor irritation and a bone issue kept Giolito off the playoff roster and unable to do anything besides watch as the Sox were eliminated in three games.
Adding to Giolito’s frustration was the fact that after getting the diagnosis and beginning some rehab work, “within three days, my elbow felt 100 percent fine again,” the right-hander told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford on the latest edition of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (partial transcript here). With no UCL damage discovered and the inflammation subsided, Giolito planned to quickly start a throwing program with the intention of returning later in the playoffs, except Boston’s run was cut short early.
As the offseason and Giolito’s free agency now begins, he said that is now “fully healthy,” even though he understands the complications that bought on by his late flexor issue. He said he is “happy to prove that I’m fully healthy in any way possible” to any skeptical front offices, and that the injury is completely behind him.
“There’s no injury, or whatever injury there was is gone. It was a weird, freak thing that popped up at the worst possible time, not only for the Red Sox but for myself and in general,” Giolito said. “Just the worst possible time. It makes my free agency harder. It prevented me from pitching in the playoffs where I had been a part of the rotation pretty much the entire year. It was just a very, very tough one to swallow. I still don’t like thinking about it.”
Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox during the 2023-24 offseason that broke down as an $18MM salary for 2024 and then a player option for a $19MM salary in 2025. Giolito’s internal brace procedure made it an easy call for him to exercise that $19MM option and remain in his Sox contract, and remaining in the deal also added a club option for 2026 worth at least $14MM. Since Giolito then tossed at least 140 innings in 2025, the club option was converted to a $19MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout, giving Giolito the right to test free agency again if he declined his end of the mutual option.
That is exactly what happened earlier this week, and Giolito finds himself on the open market again. He doesn’t have the qualifying offer attached to his services since the Sox didn’t issue him the one-year, $22.025MM offer. Giolito told Bradford that he didn’t expect the QO due to his injury: “You end of the year hurt, it puts a bad taste in the team’s mouth. It is what it is. Now, the fortunate side is that it was like the most benign, weird, freak injury that went away after a few days. So, now I’m like, great. I’m having a fully healthy, amazing offseason.”
Sour ending notwithstanding, Giolito still viewed his 2025 campaign as “really, really positive” given his own success and Boston’s success in returning to the playoffs. He is also hoping for an encore performance at Fenway Park in 2026 and beyond.
“I made it clear to everybody. I would love to come back here and continue to play for the Red Sox. It’s the most fun I have ever had having a season with a team in the big leagues,” Giolito said. “I felt like the way it ended left such a bad taste in my mouth, and the rest of the team, particularly me not being able to pitch in that playoff series. It really sucked. I was like I really hope I can come back, and it goes better for us next time.”
MLBTR ranked Giolito 27th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected the right-hander to land a two-year, $32MM contract. There was a bit of flexibility within that projection since some teams may feel comfortable enough in Giolito’s health to add a club/vesting option for a third year, or perhaps even just a fully guaranteed third year.
This mid-range price tag should put Giolito on the radar for a lot of clubs, and a return to Boston certainly seems plausible since the Sox are still in need of pitching. The expectation is that the Red Sox will pursue a frontline arm to team with Garrett Crochet atop the rotation, but adding this hypothetical ace and Giolito would only deepen the rotation and make the Sox better equipped for a longer postseason run.
Lucas Giolito Declines Mutual Option
Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito has declined his end of a $19MM mutual option, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. He’ll be paid a $1.5MM buyout and return to the open market in search of a new opportunity. The Red Sox will have the right to make him a $22.025MM qualifying offer, as Giolito has not previously received a QO in his career.
Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox on the heels of a disappointing platform with the White Sox. He’d posted excellent results from 2019-21 and cemented himself as one of the sport’s most durable starters before logging back-to-back ERAs near 5.00 in 2022-23. Giolito, 32 next July, had hoped to bounce back in Boston and take an opt-out in his contract last offseason.
Instead, the clock struck midnight on the durable right-hander’s arm. He tore the UCL in his pitching elbow during spring training 2024 and didn’t pitch a single inning inning that year. Giolito naturally forwent the opt-out in his contract and returned to Boston for the 2025 season. He stumbled out of the gate, struggling so badly that for a few starts it looked like his entire two-year contract would go down as a bust. By early June, he had an ERA north of 6.00 through seven starts.
Giolito rebounded in terrific fashion, however. Beginning with six shutout innings against the Rays on June 10, he took off on an extended hot streak. From June 10 through season’s end, Giolito posted a 2.51 ERA in 111 1/3 innings. His 20.3% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate in that stretch were both worse than average, and his .244 average on balls in play showed plenty of good fortune. Even with some expected regression in his ERA, Giolito looked like a solid mid-rotation starter who’d take a place in Boston’s postseason rotation — at least until the next roadblock arose.
On Sept. 29, manager Alex Cora announced that Giolito was dealing with an elbow issue and would not be on the team’s roster in the Wild Card round of postseason play. The next day, the team indicated that Giolito was unlikely to return at all in 2025, regardless of how deep the Sox advanced in the postseason field. While his surgically repaired UCL was intact, the veteran righty was hobbled by flexor irritation and a bone issue in his elbow.
The Sox had a $14MM club option on Giolito for the 2026 season that they might still have exercised even after the elbow troubles, but when he completed his 140th frame of the season — Giolito totaled 145 innings overall — that option vested instead as a $19MM mutual option. Players tend to make the first call with regard to mutual options, and Giolito is seemingly confident enough in his health that he’ll turn down a net $17.5MM to once again test free agency.
His decision to decline the mutual option also forces the Red Sox into a decision on whether to issue a qualifying offer. They exceeded the luxury tax line in 2025, so they’d only net a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the 2026 draft if Giolito declined and signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation, coupled with more elbow troubles for Giolito, might be enough for the Sox to forgo extending a QO in the first place. If they do, however, Giolito will again have a decision to make — this time on a sum that clocks in a bit over $3MM north of his prior option price. Add in the buyout he’s owed for declining, and a QO could at least net him $4.525MM over the value of the option he declined today.
With Giolito headed toward the market — or at least somewhat up in the air — the Sox project for a rotation including Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and a handful of question marks. Top prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early impressed late in the season but only have a handful of MLB starts between them. Kutter Crawford missed the entire season due to knee and wrist injuries (the latter of which required surgery). Patrick Sandoval didn’t pitch in 2025 after signing a two-year deal on the heels of his 2024 UCL procedure, but he’ll be in the mix next year. Tanner Houck had Tommy John surgery in August and is likely a nonfactor in 2026.
Given all the uncertainty in the ‘pen, the Sox are expected to pursue rotation help this winter. That could include a reunion with Giolito, but there are plenty of options for them to peruse on both the free agent and trade markets.