Lucas Giolito

Despite declining his end of a mutual option for the 2026 season, right-hander Lucas Giolito was and is very open to returning to the Red Sox, the pitcher himself told WEEI’s Rob Bradford in a guest appearance on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. However, Giolito also was realistic about the slim chances of that happening in the wake of Boston’s acquisition of Sonny Gray (and Johan Oviedo). Asked if the trades for Gray and Oviedo were a signal that the team plans to move on, Giolito replied, “That’s what I think,” adding that the “writing is on the wall” with regard to the fact that a reunion is unlikely.

Giolito delved further into his free agent experience a second time around, explaining that he’s more focused on what he can control this time around instead of stressing over the day-to-day of the process. He’s upped his workout regimen and is experimenting with reincorporating a sinker into his repertoire. He hasn’t thrown a two-seamer since the 2018 season but is working out at Cressey Performance Center this winter and working on an updated version of the pitch.

Though Giolito will likely be taking that new-look sinker to another club, the Red Sox don’t figure to be done on the pitching front. Tim Healey of the Boston Globe breaks down the team’s bullpen, highlighting the lack of established options beyond Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock and Greg Weissert while noting that at least one, if not two external additions could be in the cards for Breslow in the final few months of the offseason.

The Red Sox are paying Jordan Hicks $12MM in each of the next two seasons, so he’ll surely have a leash of some note, but he’s coming off a lost season in which he was rocked for a 6.59 ERA while posting a career-worst 18.5% strikeout rate. Manager Alex Cora talked up Jovani Moran as a potential left-handed option, but the 28-year-old has struggled through injury and poor performance since a promising rookie campaign with the Twins back in 2022.

While Boston is lacking in established southpaw options, much of the free agent market has thinned out considerably in recent weeks. A reunion with veteran Justin Wilson would make sense, speculatively speaking, but each of Steven Matz (Rays), Gregory Soto (Pirates), Hoby Milner (Cubs), Caleb Thielbar (Cubs), Caleb Ferguson (Reds), Drew Pomeranz (Angels) and Sean Newcomb (White Sox) has already signed this winter. Wilson, Danny Coulombe, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin and Brent Suter are all still available. JoJo Romero is the most obvious name on the trade market, if the Red Sox want to circle back for what would be a third trade with the Cardinals.

After UCL surgery cost him the entire 2024 season, Lucas Giolito returned in 2025 to post solid results (3.41 ERA in 145 innings) in the Red Sox rotation before the injury bug arose just prior to the start of Boston’s Wild Card Series with the Yankees.  Right flexor irritation and a bone issue kept Giolito off the playoff roster and unable to do anything besides watch as the Sox were eliminated in three games.

Adding to Giolito’s frustration was the fact that after getting the diagnosis and beginning some rehab work, “within three days, my elbow felt 100 percent fine again,” the right-hander told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford on the latest edition of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (partial transcript here).  With no UCL damage discovered and the inflammation subsided, Giolito planned to quickly start a throwing program with the intention of returning later in the playoffs, except Boston’s run was cut short early.

As the offseason and Giolito’s free agency now begins, he said that is now “fully healthy,” even though he understands the complications that bought on by his late flexor issue.  He said he is “happy to prove that I’m fully healthy in any way possible” to any skeptical front offices, and that the injury is completely behind him.

“There’s no injury, or whatever injury there was is gone.  It was a weird, freak thing that popped up at the worst possible time, not only for the Red Sox but for myself and in general,” Giolito said.  “Just the worst possible time.  It makes my free agency harder.  It prevented me from pitching in the playoffs where I had been a part of the rotation pretty much the entire year.  It was just a very, very tough one to swallow.  I still don’t like thinking about it.”

Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox during the 2023-24 offseason that broke down as an $18MM salary for 2024 and then a player option for a $19MM salary in 2025.  Giolito’s internal brace procedure made it an easy call for him to exercise that $19MM option and remain in his Sox contract, and remaining in the deal also added a club option for 2026 worth at least $14MM.  Since Giolito then tossed at least 140 innings in 2025, the club option was converted to a $19MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout, giving Giolito the right to test free agency again if he declined his end of the mutual option.

That is exactly what happened earlier this week, and Giolito finds himself on the open market again.  He doesn’t have the qualifying offer attached to his services since the Sox didn’t issue him the one-year, $22.025MM offer.  Giolito told Bradford that he didn’t expect the QO due to his injury: “You end of the year hurt, it puts a bad taste in the team’s mouth.  It is what it is.  Now, the fortunate side is that it was like the most benign, weird, freak injury that went away after a few days.  So, now I’m like, great.  I’m having a fully healthy, amazing offseason.”

Sour ending notwithstanding, Giolito still viewed his 2025 campaign as “really, really positive” given his own success and Boston’s success in returning to the playoffs.  He is also hoping for an encore performance at Fenway Park in 2026 and beyond.

“I made it clear to everybody. I would love to come back here and continue to play for the Red Sox.  It’s the most fun I have ever had having a season with a team in the big leagues,” Giolito said.  “I felt like the way it ended left such a bad taste in my mouth, and the rest of the team, particularly me not being able to pitch in that playoff series.  It really sucked.  I was like I really hope I can come back, and it goes better for us next time.”

MLBTR ranked Giolito 27th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected the right-hander to land a two-year, $32MM contract.  There was a bit of flexibility within that projection since some teams may feel comfortable enough in Giolito’s health to add a club/vesting option for a third year, or perhaps even just a fully guaranteed third year.

This mid-range price tag should put Giolito on the radar for a lot of clubs, and a return to Boston certainly seems plausible since the Sox are still in need of pitching.  The expectation is that the Red Sox will pursue a frontline arm to team with Garrett Crochet atop the rotation, but adding this hypothetical ace and Giolito would only deepen the rotation and make the Sox better equipped for a longer postseason run.

Right-hander Lucas Giolito had a pretty good year with the Red Sox in 2025 but it ended on a frustrating note as he wasn’t included on Boston’s postseason roster due to an elbow injury. Even before the Sox were eliminated, manager Alex Cora said Giolito was most likely not going to be coming back this year. Today, Chris Cotillo of MassLive provided an update on the righty’s status. Giolito has been on a throwing program with one source telling Cotillo that Giolito is “100%” while another source said Giolito is “making improvements.”

Giolito’s status is noteworthy at this stage of the offseason as he is about to return to free agency. He originally signed with the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season, a two-year deal worth $38.5MM. Giolito had a chance to opt out of that deal after 2024 but he ended up missing that entire season due to UCL surgery, so he naturally decided to stay with Boston for the second season.

By foregoing that opt-out chance, he gave the Red Sox a $14MM club option for 2026. However, he could convert that to a $19MM mutual option by pitching 140 frames in 2025. He got to 145 frames this year, successfully converting it. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides, with the last instance being more than a decade ago at this point. As such, Giolito will almost certainly get the $1.5MM buyout instead.

There’s a long winter ahead but Giolito’s health in the near term is important. As pointed out by Cotillo, the Sox have until five days after the World Series to decide whether or not to issue Giolito a qualifying offer, which is a one-year deal worth $22.025MM. That’s roughly what the Sox have been paying Giolito annually on his two-year deal, so it’s not a huge spike.

However, there are reasons why the Sox may not feel comfortable with continuing to pay Giolito a salary in that range. The obvious one is the elbow. It has been previously reported that Giolito has no UCL damage but does have flexor irritation and a bone issue. If the Sox felt that injury could linger into 2026, then they may prefer to walk away.

The other issue is Giolito’s performance. The Sox initially bought low on him. He was a borderline ace a few years ago, earning Cy Young votes in three straight years from 2019 to 2021. But his ERA spiked to just under 5.00 in both 2022 and 2023. Even in those poor seasons, he struck out more than 25% of batters faced. That was a drop from his peak, when he was striking out around 33% of opponents, but it was still above average.

In 2025, Giolito managed to finish strong in the ERA department but without getting his strikeouts back. He had a solid 3.41 ERA for the year overall. He had a rough 6.42 ERA through seven starts but then an excellent 2.51 ERA over his final 19 starts. However, even in that latter sample, he was only punching out 20.3% of opponents. For reference, the average strikeout rate for a starting pitcher in 2025 was 21.8%. That figure is probably inflated a bit by the use of openers, but Giolito’s rate is still fairly middling.

The other issue is that the reward for making a QO may be lesser than in the past. The Sox got the 75th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Nick Pivetta rejected a QO and signed with the Padres last offseason, but that was after a year in which the Sox did not pay the competitive balance tax. Both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimate that the Sox went slightly over the tax line in 2025. Those are unofficial estimates, but if they are accurate, then the QO compensation pick would fall to after the fourth round of the draft if Giolito were to reject a QO and sign elsewhere.

Giolito likely would have started a playoff game for the Sox if he were healthy. He and Brayan Bello were the most established options behind ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Bello and rookie Connelly Early made starts alongside Crochet. Cotillo suggests the Sox are quite happy with Giolito, including as a veteran clubhouse leader. Even with some concerning numbers and the lesser benefit from making the QO, perhaps they will do it anyway if they would be happy for him to accept. Though even if they like Giolito, they may not want to tie up $22.025MM of their budget just as the offseason is beginning, especially if Giolito’s elbow is still an issue.

A bit of progress in the next few days could increase Boston’s willingness to issue the QO. It may also increase his willingness to turn it down and explore the market. Even if they do offer it, he gets a couple of weeks to talk to other teams and gauge his market before making his decision on the QO. His market with non-Boston teams will depend both upon his health and whether or not he is attached to a QO.

Photo courtesy of Eric Canha, Imagn Images

Red Sox righty Lucas Giolito is dealing with an elbow issue and won’t be included on Boston’s roster for their Wild Card Series showdown with the archrival Yankees, manager Alex Cora told reporters at today’s media session (link via Christopher Smith of MassLive.com). Cora did not provide a specific diagnosis or tip his hand as to whether Giolito would be available in subsequent rounds, should the Red Sox advance. Giolito would’ve been Boston’s starter for a potential Game 3 of the series. He’ll see a specialist today, MassLive’s Sean McAdam adds.

Giolito, 31, missed the entire 2024 season due to UCL surgery but returned with a flourish in 2025, firing 145 frames of 3.41 ERA ball. That number is inflated a bit by a poor start to the season; from June 10 onward, he made 19 starts with a 2.51 ERA. Giolito’s 19.7% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate contributed to more tepid evaluations from metrics like FIP (4.17) and SIERA (4.66), but his bottom-line results were unequivocally strong, even if their sustainability merited some skepticism.

Upon reaching 140 innings pitched this season, Giolito triggered a vesting clause in his $14MM club option that converted it into a $19MM mutual option. When he reached that threshold, it appeared all but certain that the right-hander would turn down his end of the mutual option and reenter the market. Suddenly, the health of his elbow clouds that decision. If the issue is serious, the Red Sox will surely decline their end and send Giolito into free agency anyhow, but he’ll return to the open market under very different circumstances than seemed likely even one week ago.

Giolito did experience a velocity drop of some note in September. After averaging 93.4 mph on his heater through the season’s first five months, he averaged 92.5 mph on his four-seamer over his final five appearances — including a season-low 92.1 mph in his final appearance. He still posted a 3.16 ERA over 25 2/3 innings in those outings, but he also issued 18 walks. At first glance, that could’ve been chalked up to fatigue for a pitcher who didn’t throw a single inning in ’24 but was pushing up toward 150 frames in the stretch run — but word of a possible elbow injury now makes that late slide all the more concerning.

The Red Sox figure to have more information on Giolito’s status later in the week, once he’s met with that specialist and discussed any findings with team brass. That’ll determine his availability — or lack thereof — for potential appearances in the ALDS, ALCS or World Series, depending how far Boston progresses in the postseason. For the series at hand, the elbow trouble for Giolito likely thrusts one of the team’s promising young lefties, like Connelly Early or Kyle Harrison, into that Game 3 start. Top prospect Payton Tolle was moved to the bullpen in early September and hasn’t pitched more than three innings in an outing since Sept. 29 as a result, so he’s not likely to get the nod.