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MLB Mailbag: Vlad Jr., Yankees, Seiya Suzuki, Sasaki, Giants

By Tim Dierkes | December 10, 2024 at 8:55pm CDT

We (Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes) are on the scene at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas for Day 2 of the Winter Meetings.  At the time of this writing, Tuesday has been quiet in terms of completed deals, but plenty of action is yet to come.  We carved out some time from meandering the lobby to field subscriber questions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s potential contract, what the Yankees might do after losing out on Juan Soto, the Cubs and the Seiya Suzuki trade situation, the idea of signing Roki Sasaki to an extension, what's next for the Giants, and much more.

Jeff asks: 

Jays fan question - if 26 year old Soto is worth 765M, isn't 26 year old free agent Vlad Jr now worth ~500M? How bad has Ross Atkins bungled his window to sign Vlad at a more reasonable price, over several years of dithering? All the talk had been a Devers comp in the mid-300s, but that ship has surely sailed, right?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s likely rising price tag was a big topic of conversation around the lobby of the MLB Winter Meetings in Dallas Monday night.

It's worth noting that Guerrero will turn 27 shortly in advance of his first free agent season, as opposed to Juan Soto spending the entire first year of his new deal at the age of 26.  We have rarely seen a prominent free agent hit the market at 27, perhaps with the exception of Carlos Correa's weird three-year post-lockout contract.  Otherwise you're looking at international free agents like Jose Abreu or Seiya Suzuki, or Cody Bellinger who took a one-year deal at that point.

Steve and I spoke to our esteemed former colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith last night about a potential Vlad Jr. price tag, and Ben mentioned Rafael Devers as a comp just as Jeff did in his question.  Indeed, Devers' contract only covers free agent years and started with his age-27 season.  That was a ten-year, $313.5MM extension.  Due to deferred money, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote that the CBT hit on Devers' deal is "just more than $29 million."  In other words, the present value of Devers' deal was below $300MM.  It was also not signed on the open market.

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8 Comments

  1. Luis_Fazenda

    9 months ago

    Two great years out of six, a rotten mitt, and the guy’s now worth $500 million? lol

    3
    Reply
    • Anthony maresca

      9 months ago

      1B never get crazy money either and Vladdy would age poorly due to his body type

      2
      Reply
  2. Dynasty

    9 months ago

    Pay. Wally.

    Reply
  3. Ezpkns34

    9 months ago

    There’s a few teams I’d enjoy see inking Vlad Jr to a $500M deal, though completely due to schadenfreude

    5
    Reply
  4. Darthyen

    9 months ago

    ATTENTION TIM : Vladdy does not turn 27 until March 16 2026 so he will be 26 years old entering free agency.

    2
    Reply
    • averagejoe15

      9 months ago

      Try rereading it. He turns 27 before the season starts next year (his free agent year) so he’d play the entire 2026 season at 27 years old. Nothing Tim said was inaccurate.

      Reply
  5. tikiagedola

    9 months ago

    Lol
    Blue Jays are in a horrible spot. It is like the nuggets 15 years ago with Carmelo. One of the most overrated players in the sport that the fanbase would be pissed if they let him go.He knows he can bend over Toronto to be able to keep him

    3
    Reply
  6. 1999 MLB All Star MVP

    9 months ago

    Lol. Rumor has it that the Red Sox were interested in the MLB Mailbag!

    2
    Reply

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