The Orioles announced that they have signed outfielder Dylan Carlson to a one-year deal. The ALIGND Sports Agency client will reportedly make $975K with a $25K bonus for getting to 200 plate appearances. Infielder Jacob Amaya has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Carlson, 26, has seen his stock slide in recent years. That includes a very rough showing in 2024. Between the Cardinals and Rays last year, he stepped to the plate 265 times but struck out in 28.3% of those appearances and hit just .209/.287/.277 for a wRC+ of 67. The Rays could have retained him via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.7MM salary, but they non-tendered him instead.
It’s been a steep drop from a few years ago. Carlson was selected by the Cardinals with the 33rd overall pick in 2016 and he performed well in his first professional games. Baseball America ranked him as one of the ten best prospects in the entire league in both 2020 and 2021.
In the latter of those two years, he seemed to be on his way to delivering on that prospect hype. He got into 149 games for the Cards in 2021, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .266/.343/.437 for a 111 wRC+. He also got some decent marks for his glovework, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 2.4 wins above replacement on the year. Since he was only 22 years old at the time, it would have been fair to consider that just the beginning.
Unfortunately, his production has trended down since then, perhaps due to a lack of health. A left hamstring strain sent him to the injured list, followed by a later stint for a left thumb sprain. He played 128 games with a .236/.316/.380 line and 98 wRC+. In 2023, left ankle issues were the culprit, sending him to the IL multiple times and eventually requiring surgery. He hit .219/.318/.333 for a wRC+ of 84, getting into just 76 games. In 2024, a left AC joint sprain put him on the IL to start the year. As mentioned earlier, he went on to have a poor season and got sent to free agency.
For the O’s, they probably aren’t expecting much out of Carlson except to fill a fourth outfielder role. They have Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser likely to be their regular trio on the grass. Even if someone in that group gets hurt, they have Heston Kjerstad as an option to step up. He still has options remaining and could perhaps be ticketed for everyday at-bats in Triple-A until he’s needed in the majors. The designated hitter slot will probably be shared by first basemen Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn.
That will likely leave Carlson and Daz Cameron in bench/depth roles. Carlson has played all three outfield spots in his career, with mixed reviews. Defensive Runs Saved considers him to have been slightly above average on the whole, though Outs Above Average has him a bit below par.
Based on his past prospect pedigree, there’s theoretically some upside there since Carlson is still young, though he will need to stay healthy and find a path to some regular playing time. If that comes to pass, Carlson can be retained for 2026 via arbitration. He also has a full slate of options, so it’s possible the O’s send him to the minors to try and get him back on track that way. His service time is at four years and 104 days, putting him 68 days of the five-year mark. Once he gets to that line, he can’t be optioned without his consent.
Amaya, 26, was just claimed off waivers earlier this month. The O’s have a penchant for grabbing guys off the wire and then trying to pass them through at a later date, so it’s not especially surprising to see that happen here.
The young infielder is considered to be stronger as a fielder than as a hitter. He has plenty of experience with the middle infield positions, as well as some time at third base, generally impressing prospect evaluators. He has hit .182/.222/.195 in 81 major league plate appearances. That’s a tiny sample size but his minor league work has also been subpar. Over the past two years, he stepped to the plate 868 times on the farm and hit .241/.332/.379 for a wRC+ of 80.
He exhausted his final option in 2024. As his out-of-options status was nearing, he started to bounce around the league. He was designated for assignment by the Marlins in March and traded to the Astros. Houston put him on waivers in August, which led the White Sox to make a claim, though they subsequently lost him to the O’s this month.
Amaya heads back to DFA limbo and will know his fate within a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any possibility of a trade would need to be explored in the next five days. Based on his past few DFAs, he’s probably headed for the waiver wire again in the coming days. If he clears this time, the O’s will retain him as some infield depth but without him taking up a roster spot.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the financial terms.
Wow didn’t know he was a FA. was such a stud prospect
I didn’t know Baltimore had a FO. Ahahahahaha!
Must be because they are too busy out drafting and scouting nyc teams hahahaha
Absolutely ugly strikeout numbers last year. He’s just not seeing the ball at all? Tampa gave up and non tendered him over paying him 2 million. He had some really good years in the minor leagues.
Dylan Carlson musta been wearing Colby Rasmus shoes
I never realized how bad this guy was until I just checked his Baseball Reference page. Yikes! Dude basically had one good year in 2021. He’s still just 25 so I suppose he could turn it around in Baltimore. I just remember people talking about him like he was some big stud. Not exactly.
He’s similar to Mitch Haniger and Andrew Benintendi. Jack of all trades expert at none of them. And then with some injury problems like he had it kinda falls apart.
But he is still really talented! Can he ever live up to his hype? Maybe, probably not, but yes their is reason to be interested. Doubts. The thing is he has no flaws as player. Except his numbers verses lefties, even though he is naturaĺly a lefty. Seems incapable of adjusting. Certainly, someone who could be a positve contributor
T
He just needs a little luck to stay healthy and consistent at bats. Never got that in St. Louis the past 3 seasons.
Much more similar to Colby Rasmus, without a prime
@draker A 3-win 22 year old who was plus in RF and wasn’t embarrassed in CF? That’s a helluva player. Such players are fairly rare.
Assuming it was the injuries that wrecked Carlson, it’s hard to say if he even has the means to turn it around. Not saying I have any reason to believe this to be the case here, but he wouldn’t be the first guy to hide irrecuperable physical problems in order to try to stay in the game.
That .332 BABIP in 2021, though, should have been a tipoff to St. Louis that when the dust settled he might not be all that.
“For the O’s, they probably aren’t expecting much out of Carlson except to fill a fourth outfielder role.”
—-They’d be fools to do this. Carlson is much more the type of guy you pick up, take a look at, and decide quickly if you want him to sit #8 or 9 on your OFer Depth Chart or if it’s better to cut him entirely. He’s been in cliff-like decline for three full years and looks nothing like a 4th, 5th, 6th, or 7th OFer.
Carlson actually had a string of freak injuries over the past few years. He will surprise people if he can stay healthy and get some regular playing time. He has solid power from the right side, good arm and glove. He could not stay out of Marmol’s doghouse for some reason and was never getting regular at bats.
Yeah, what happened to him? Injury? Pitchers figured him out?
Had some injuries when with the Cards, but he just stopped producing, basically, in general. Was slated to become a really valuable piece, but it just didn’t happen.
Perhaps part of the plague of young players with the Redbirds who haven’t developed due to organizational shortcomings (?)…but hasn’t had success (yet?) outside the organization.
Definitely pulling for the guy.
Well, the Orioles now have Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill… there’s a lot of 2019-21 Red Birds in the outfield here.
Randalll Gruchuk is affordable 🙂
He landed in Marmol’s doghouse. That’s what happened. He will surprise if he gets the at bats.
Improving the lineup against lefties has been a clear focus of Mike Elias this offseason and Carlson certainly has a good track record against them, but I don’t really see how he fits on our roster without a subtraction.
Maybe Mullins or Kjerstad is getting traded for a starter? Or maybe Mateo is going to miss more time at the start of the year than previously thought?
Kjerstad to San Diego?
They need another OF. Could use a 1B or DH if Arraez is playing the field. He could fit there.
Probably not but seems odd to add another OF right now.
This makes the most sense. They need Cease, but they need more than a one year rental.
O’s spent a lot of money on 1 year deals this offseason.
I think that’s bc they missed on their pitching targets and wanted to keep the wallet open to spend next fall on a pitcher
So they’re essentially paying him a little over $200k more than someone like Kjerstad or Dylan Beavers. Begs the question: why?
Years of control?…thats all I got
He hits lefties well (.792 career OPS), at least historically.
Because they have Daz Cameron pencilled into the bench outfield spot and Carlson is more interesting than Cameron. Also Beavers and Kjerstad can be sent to AAA penalty-free.
If Carlsons presence helps keep Beavers in the minors until July thats worth something.
He hits lefties. Might be toast because of his shoulder problems might not be who knows.
With the way the Orioles promote prospects, Beavers won’t be up this year, Carlson or not.
@yankees500 Because it makes sense. Sign 10 of these guys and find one who gives you a 2-win season and one who’s a respectable 5th OFer in 250 PA and you’re way ahead compared to the 3/42m-45m OFer you’d otherwise add to try to lock down 2 wins the first two years of that deal.
Not the orioles news we want
He is NOT the Droid you are looking for?
I was hoping a trade for Luis Robert Jr, so Carlson is not the Droid I am looking for either!
Unless someone offers Chicago as much as they’d get if Robert was an All Star last season, they’ll hang onto him till the deadline. They won’t sell low.
They’d be smart to get something for him while they can
Beavers gets a full seasons of everyday reps in the minors while this guy rots on the bench.
And that is fine since Beavers isn’t ready and also hits left-handed.
Had a great year in 2019 and nothing else. He’s already a reclamation project in 2025., which is fine, but the only place he fits in Baltimore……is in Norfolk.
What was different in 2019 ?
Just the juiced balls..
Really affected stats on just about every player.
Hope DC figures it out and somebody lights a fire under his ass. Talented.
Definitely a low risk high reward. Look at Ohearn.
At age 26 and for $1MM, he’s certainly worth the risk.
I’m surprised he was able to find a major league contract after two disastrous years, but it’s definitely worth a no risk look based on his former prospect pedigree.
Although it is technically a major-league contract, it is essentially a minor-league deal. If he doesn’t perform well, the Orioles can cut him quickly.
Thanks, I should have realized that because it’s stated in the article.
He’s had injury problems and those problems took his power from mildly acceptable to non existent. Maybe he bounces back who knows.
Still young, hits Righties, got glove. OF depth with some upside. Good deal.
@O’sSayCanYouSee
Hits righties? Not in 2024. Or 2023. Or 2022…
If you meant ‘hits lefties’ the first applies. It looks like his platoon differential fell off with his overall performance in ’24. I wouldn’t expect him to hit anything at this point unless his health returns.
Jack — Yeah, typo, I was trying for “hits righty”. My B.
I had no idea he was a free agent
Even if he’s good enough to platoon this will end up being a nice buy low deal for the Os I think
@stretch123 A bad fielder in 2024 who now has just average speed—if the fielding continues that way, hitting LHP’ing won’t save him until rosters expand, if then. A short-side DH doesn’t offer much unless his OPS is .800-plus or his team has a sinkhole without him .
The Mets have a short-side DH-only in Starling Marte and they’ll end up giving him away along with $16m in salary relief just to clear the roster spot.
The “master Baker ” must have incriminating photos to keep him on the roster!
^ Facts.
They acquired the wrong Dylan C.
I completely spaced on the fact that the Rays non-tendered him. Depth piece for the O’s because unfortunately with Tyler O’Neill on the roster you will need a solid backup
I wish him well. I always liked him and hoped he’d figure it out. Both he and O’Neill were jerked around by Marmol quite a bit. The Cardinals really need a new manager if they want a youth revival. He’s terrible with young players.
Marmol must go! Prob leaves with Mo but sooner would be even better with the youth movement in St.L.
Love this signing for Baltimore. He’s a young free agent, switch hitter that plays above average D at all 3 OF spots, plus sports a decent OPS vs. LHP. He essentially replaces the role once occupied by Austin Hays, but they need one more bat to replace Santander. They should offer Pete Alonso a massive one year deal and go all-in.
Alonso makes no sense for the Orioles with Mountcastle at 1B and O’Hearn as DH (plus Kjerstad and Mayo both MLB ready) already on hand. He’d be a massive downgrade defensively versus Mountcastle at 1B and Pete’s OPS+ is almost identical to O’Hearn’s over the last 2 years (123 vs. 122).
Plus he would cost a draft pick, which would be fine if he was a significant upgrade, but he clearly isn’t.
Minor league options aside, they should’ve just resigned Austin Hays.
I think one of Hays’ major issues was being the fourth OF on the team once Cowser forced himself into an everyday role. Not sure that Hays wants to do that again.
Hays isn’t going to get an everyday role unless he signs with the White Sox or another 2nd division club.
What are the Baltimore Orioles doing?
Great low risk high reward for under a mil. Perfect
Baltimore is collecting oft injured former Cardinals.
If Carlson is on this roster and they send Kjerstad down, we will really need to evaluate Mike Elias. Kjerstad should be playing everyday. He can outhit Carlson hitting right handed…
I don’t understand this at all. Normally I’d assume this was just a minor league contract for depth purposes, but $1M is far from that, for sure. Did we pick him up as a trade piece? Is someone else about to be traded and he’s going to fill that role? I certainly hope it’s not the first one because that suggests Cowser, Kjerstad, O’Hearn or O’Neill are on the move. There’s a chance it could be Mullins, but we also already signed Nick Gordon to a minor league deal which I thought was for depth purposes. Idk. I really wish we weren’t looking to the trade market. We have $20.7M in payroll still sitting around that would have gone to Burnes, we could sign Flaherty, drop our #59 overall pick in the 2nd round to get Eovoldi who would be a great bullpen addition, if need be in October, and we’d still have the 19, 30, 31 overall picks and a payroll under $165M. We could even grab Means for a cheap $3M for security and depth knowing he will be back with a vengeance this season after going down for a 2nd TJ and he’s an ace. It’s all right there for the taking. If you don’t like Eovoldi, there’s Pivetta or Scherzer who would each come at virtually the same price or cheaper. C’mon Mike! You’re at the finish line, 1st and goal from the 1 yard line, give it to Henry and punch it the f*** in!
I really don’t think you know baseball at all, respectfully.
Eovaldi is signed. O’Neill can’t be traded after signing this offseason. Relax.