After yesterday’s exciting Hall of Fame announcement, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball this Wednesday:
1. More clarity about Yates’s potential deal with the Dodgers?
When USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the potential deal between the Dodgers and Kirby Yates, he described it as a “tentative agreement.” From that wording, it wasn’t clear if anything other than a standard physical was holding things up. However, further reporting suggested a deal wasn’t quite that close. For instance, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times wrote the two sides were merely “working toward a deal,” with the Dodgers “trying to make [Yates] yet another impact addition to their pitching staff.”
Presumably, more details will come out soon, and barring any previously unknown injury issues, it seems likely Yates will be a Dodger in 2025. Two key details that have yet to be revealed are the length and dollar value of the “tentative agreement.” MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14 million contract for the All-Star reliever on our Top 50 Free Agents list earlier this offseason.
Speaking of Dodgers bullpen signings, the team has also yet to finalize Tanner Scott’s four-year, $72 million contract. They have one open spot on the 40-man roster, so they will be able to formally announce one new contract without making an additional transaction but will need to make a corresponding move before finalizing another.
2. Mets to announce Minter?
It has now been five days since the Mets reportedly agreed to terms with free agent reliever A.J. Minter on a two-year, $22 million contract. However, they have not yet officially announced him as the newest member of the club. The Mets already have an open spot on the 40-man roster, so they do not need to figure out a corresponding move. Thus, they are presumably just waiting for the results of his physical to come back clean.
The deal will likely be finalized any day now, although it’s worth remembering the 31-year-old Minter is coming off of left hip surgery that ended his 2024 season in mid-August, lending some extra importance to that physical exam. Minter was one of the most reliable relievers in the game from 2020-23, and the fact that he landed a $22MM guarantee ($6MM higher than MLBTR’s prediction) shows how highly the Mets value his skill set.
3. What’s next for the Diamondbacks?
The Diamondbacks confirmed they’re all in for 2025 when they signed star pitcher Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million deal. Yet, they have been quiet ever since, with their only additions in January being utility infielder Grae Kessinger and backup catcher René Pinto. Considering how little the Padres have accomplished this offseason, the D-backs are in a great position to leapfrog their division rivals. At the same time, considering how much the Dodgers have done this winter, the D-backs need to keep adding if they want any chance to compete for the NL West crown. For example, the team could use another back-end reliever to replace Paul Sewald and at least one more bat to make up for the losses of Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk.
However, it’s possible that GM Mike Hazen might not have much left to spend. While owner Ken Kendrick has declared that “every dollar” of revenue will be reinvested in “ballplayers and not in the ownership,” he also claims his team is “stretching the budget” as is with the Burnes contract. Perhaps the next move for the Diamondbacks is to try to offload some of Jordan Montgomery’s $22.5MM salary so they can use those savings to bolster the lineup or the bullpen.
Definitely think that they should offload Montgomery and use the money to try and nab Jurickson Profar.
Yes they should. However, I feel like they will either need to eat part of his contract or receive another underwater deal in return, thus limiting the financial freedom Arizona will gain.
Montgomery is making 22.5 million in 2025. They should be able to at least get half of that back in salary relief and that’s enough to get a closer.
@rememberthecoop The Jays should be willing to take all of Monty’s contract dollars if his medicals are sound and if their pitch by pitch analysis of his disastrous 2024 season show his mechanics were still sound. He was a #1b/2 starter of three seasons as recently as 2023. It’s surprising not to see a deal worked out yet—so it must be the case that there’s more under the hood than the late start throwing him off.
Still, the 4.35 FIP from May 8 through Sept 22 (4.48 for the year) is hardly irrecuperable at age 32.
The Mets should be in on him if he’s physically sound. They haven’t promised anyone the #6 slot in the rotation and they have numerous question marks and no one who is even a decent bet to go 30 starts or 160 innings. If they’re not dealing for Cease, Monty’s a good way to spend some of Cohen’s money.
I don’t understand the fascination with Profar. It seems no one looks beyond last year. The guy is barely replacement level. Does your favorite team really not have someone in their system with a higher ceiling? Any team that pays him like last year is typical and not the outlier will regret it.
Great point, because a year earlier, he fell down dead statistically despite playing half his games at Coors Field. He’s oy worth a one-year contract to me, at a max of about $10 million. Not a believer.
If anyone was willing to pay Profar like he’s the guy he was in 2024 moving forward i imagine he would be signed already. But 2024 did still happen and he was a good player in 2024.
I don’t know how exciting it was Leo. (Yawn) Ahahahahaha!
I think Leo made a mistake. Surely Minter signed with the Dodgers, not the Mets.
Despite all their signings, I don’t think the Dodgers are a lock to win the NLW. After all, they can’t play all of them all at once. The only addition to their starting lineup is Kim. (OK, they’re a lock to win the division.)
They are as close to a lock as you can get.
Theyre a lock to win the West and nearly a lock to earn the bye. But the playoffs are a crapshoot and any hot team can knock them off
@bucsfan0004 It’s not that the playoffs are a crapshoot, it’s that the Dodgers, even though they’re a favorite to win a given series, aren’t close to a favorite to win THREE straight postseason series.
Even if they’re good enough to win a given series two times out of three against a 90 win team, they’re only (0.667 * 0.667 * 0.667) = ~29.67% to win the World Series.
So not even 1 time in 3.
IMHO, their weakness is still pitching like most, even with the additions of Roki/Snell. The member of the rotation that had the most IP in ’24 was Glasnow (!) with a career-high 134 IP. Snell averages that over his 7 full MLB seasons. Should expect more from Yamamoto now in his 2nd full season, but he only threw 90 IP getting acclimated, which should be an expectation from Roki in his 1st. Those depths pieces (May, Ryan, Sheehan, Gonsolin, etc.) will be big. They were able to win the WS with pitching injuries, so maybe they’re just comfortable with the strategy.
Run – I have my doubts about Ohtani’s ability to be a 3-ERA pitcher again, but even without him their rotation on paper is the best I can remember in my lifetime.
And people forget Kershaw had a 2.37 ERA in 258 IP during 2022-2023.
It will take a LOT of key injuries to stop this Dodgers team.
Absolutely on Ohtani/Kershaw. Is Kershaw signed, btw? I know it’s a given that he reconnects, but is it? ATL can’t be the only one ok with letting legends leave not on their own terms. lol
I’d be more fearful of their pitching had they signed Burnes or even Fried rather than Snell.
Run – A lot of the less reputable websites are implying there’s no room for Kershaw. I’m not buying it though, without Ohtani they need Kershaw and with Ohtani they will likely go to a 6-man rotation so either way the need is there. I’d be very surprised if they don’t sign him.
I’m a Snell guy, the other two can’t dominate at the same level Snell can.
I picture Fried as Burnett II with the Yanks, I don’t think that contract will age well.
FP — The reason Fried/Burnes over Snell is not because of the ceiling, but a much higher floor, which was what I was trying to get at with having so many high-end SP pieces. Snell will most likely go 4-5 IP and unless your strength is a long RP (which most likely their depth pieces would be), they need some strong 2-3 IP to get to Phillips/Scott/Yates (?)
Except Burnett has nothing close to the #’s Fried has put up AND Fried doesn’t rely on velo like Burnett did. Weird take especially noting the Yankees aren’t even mentioned in the article.
Weird take? The convo shifted from the article. Transcripts there for you to follow. I think FP meant their respective impacts while on NYY being a FA signing, and thus, how their contracts are valued with hindsight. Fried comes off successive seasons missing time with forearm injuries (and a recurring blister), which is its own red flag on an 8-year deal and someone that doesn’t really have consistent velo as a weapon.
Run – I’m thinking Snell will go longer in games since he’s starting fewer games as part of a 6-man.
He did go at least 6 IP in 10 of his 13 starts last year (including 4 games of at least 7 IP) after ramping up from the lack of ST.
Run – Thank you! I mentioned Fried because you brought him up with Burnes and Snell. And last time I checked, Fried is with the Yankees …. so not sure why ssowl was questioning why I mentioned the Yankees. I’m guessing he’s a sensitive Yankees fan.
BTW – Fried is coming off a 3.25 ERA season and has never pitched for a team other than the laid-back Braves.
He’s got a well known reputation for being a “different” kind of guy.
Burnett had a 3.34 ERA with the Pirates
He had a 4.59 ERA with the Phillies
And a 4.79 ERA with the Yankees.
It’s well documented he performed much worse in the intense environments of NY and Philly.
Burnett’s Career Postseason ERA? 6.37
Fried’s Career Postseason ERA? 5.10
I have plenty to support my comparison of the two pitchers.
‘Laid-back Braves’ — lol. Thanks for the grace if seeing ANY Braves fan boards that want to General Sherman ATL right now.
Run – I’ve been to Truist, it was a phenomenal experience and seemed like a relaxed family friendly environment similar to The Big A.
I plan to go there twice this year …. weekend series vs Sox and the ASG.
Strongest Avenger
Um, also Conforto
Hye Seong Kim replaces Gavin Lux
Conforto replaces Pages
Full year of Edman
Snell and Roki
Tanner, Kirby and full year of Kopech (unless injured)
Return of Teoscar, Blake and Clayton
They have five starters of which one can comfortably pick to start game one of a playoffs series. Then there’s the odd man out of the rotation who can be a multi-inning reliever. They were also second in runs scored behind the DBacks with 5.26 runs per game in 2024. Both Kim and Conforto should be upgrades on the offense.
For once I wish Hoyer had the nads to swoop in and grab Yates.
Me too rondon. How you can trade for one year of Tucker and not get a closer boggles my mind. It serves as nothing more than window dressing for the fans. “Oh hey we got Tucker so we’re going for it! ” Um, no we’re not.
coop – I totally agree. Acquiring a stud closer when one is needed, that is the true sign a team is GFIN.
Jed will sign Craig Kimbrel and call it a day…sigh.
Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, and Dodgers will all compete. Whoever stays motivated and healthy will be in playoffs. More money for athletes often leads to less motivation to perform.
Did ChatGPT write this?
“More money for athletes often leads to less motivation to perform.”
This part for sure. The bots are trying to warp our brains.
I agree. But see them in 3 distinct tiers at present. Dodgers will be competing for best record in baseball (history possibly). Padres and Diamondbacks should be competing for the top two Wild Card spots. Giants an underdog for the final Wild Card. And I would expect that once all the games are actually played, only 2/4 of them make the postseason. I’m biased (Diamondbacks), but right now I expect the two lucky ones are LAD and AZ with CHC, ATL, NYM rounding out the rest of the Wild Card spots in some fashion.
I doubt the D’Backs can trade Montgomery and use saved salary to sign someone. It takes two to tango. Even adding a prospect I don’t see anyone that would want him at this point.. He has a lot to prove this coming season and so do several of the others.. We’ll see how things go.
Lawler, Del Castillo, Alexander, Barrosa, Smith, and Thomas
Maybe the Dbacks are scoffing at offers being made and are waiting to see once injuries round out during spring training, a team might be more likely to engage in trade talks. 22.5 mil is a pretty hefty price tag coming off a negative 1.4 WAR season.
@terry g & Idosteroids – essentially agree with both of you. I’m sure the DBacks had discussions with teams on Montgomery but since nothing has happened, the return or offer to eat salary wasn’t near enough. At this stage they’ll probably roll through Spring Training and see how he does. If he shows off well. a trade may happen before the start of the season. If not, he’ll be ticketed for the bullpen. Injuries can happen during ST (to DBacks as well as other teams) so that may play a role in whether they decide to keep him or not. DH may end up being something that’s filled with current starting position players as they need to rest. May also hinge on how well Lawler progresses.
I think the best fit for Montgomery is the Jays. The Jays need a lefty starter and they clearly still have money to spend. If not the Jays maybe the Tigers.
Hey Leo, how could you forget about Naylor as an Arizona add?
I have to believe that the DBacks won’t move Montgomery until at least midway through ST; even showing up to ST in shape would help from a value perspective (every bit helps at this point).