The Opener

Happy Thanksgiving to MLBTR’s readers in the United States, and for our non-American readers….uh, happy Thursday?  Here are three things we’re keeping an eye on besides the turkey in the oven….

1. Blue Jays land Dylan Cease:

The reigning AL champs made the priciest free agent signing in team history yesterday, as reports indicated that Toronto inked Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210MM contract.  The contract will be finalized once Cease passes a physical, and while it’s just a matter of time before we get the official announcement, it’s possible things could be delayed a few days simply due to the Thanksgiving weekend.  As it stands, the Jays seem to have already finished up their rotation shopping pretty early in the offseason, between the Cease signing and Shane Bieber’s surprising decision to exercise his player option to remain in Toronto through the 2026 campaign.  With the starting pitching mix potentially settled already, the Blue Jays can now turn their attention to re-signing Bo Bichette or adding another big bat to their lineup.  For the rest of the league, Cease’s decision removes a top-tier arm from the board, so pitching-needy teams will have to turn their attention to other starters in free agency or on the trade market.

2. Rockies re-introduce Warren Schaeffer:

After operating as Colorado’s interim manager for most of the 2025 season, Warren Schaeffer was named the club’s new full-time skipper.  There hadn’t been much news about the Rockies’ managerial search because, in essence, one didn’t happen, as president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta explained at a press conference yesterday.  DePodesta told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that he informally looked into some other candidates but “ultimately, I didn’t feel the need to interview anybody else,” as “I would say, even a week in….it became pretty clear to me that [Schaeffer] was a good direction to go.”  This won’t exactly calm the fears of Rockies worried that the team is still going to be operating in an insular fashion, even though DePodestra is an entirely fresh face as the new head of the front office.  Still, Schaeffer received praise for how he handled stepping into a rough situation last season, and his 36-86 record is obviously far more a reflection on Colorado’s dismal roster than on Schaeffer’s work in his first season as a big league manager.

3. The Anthony Rendon era nears an end in Anaheim:

Anthony Rendon’s MLB career may be officially over after 12 seasons, as the oft-injured third baseman is reportedly discussing a buyout plan with the Angels heading into the final year of his contract.  Presumably the $38MM owed to Rendon in 2026 would instead be paid out in deferred fashion over several years, giving the Angels some more short-term spending ability.  Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM deal signed in December 2019 will go down as a complete bust, as Rendon ended up playing in only 257 games over the life of the contract due to a wide variety of injuries, including a hip surgery that cost him the entire 2025 season.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Cardinals’ rebuild in full swing:

The first shot of St. Louis’s rebuild was fired yesterday when the club traded right-hander Sonny Gray (and $20MM cash) to the Red Sox for right-hander Richard Fitts, left-hander Brandon Clarke, and a player to be named later or cash. The return restocks the club’s pitching coffers, which the Cardinals haven’t been shy about making a goal of this winter. There’s plenty of additional work for the club to do even with half of Gray’s money off the books, however. The team still hopes to trade Nolan Arenado, and a host of young left-handed bats (led by Brendan Donovan) are known to be available as well. Less clear is the status of Willson Contreras, who would certainly be a logical trade candidate but has indicated a preference to stay in St. Louis.

2. What’s next for the Red Sox?

Entering the offseason, the Red Sox made it clear that a top priority for the club was to add a front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Garrett Crochet and slot in ahead of Brayan Bello. They arguably did that with the Gray trade, as the veteran was a second-place Cy Young finisher as recently as 2023 in Minnesota. However, Gray hasn’t pitched at that same level in 2024-25, so it’s debatable whether he truly accomplishes this goal. Regardless, it seems that Boston will be turning its attention to bolstering the offense for the time being. That could come in a lot of different forms. Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and even Kyle Schwarber have been frequently linked to the Red Sox this offseason, and there’s been some reporting that they’re looking at J.T. Realmuto as well. Outside of free agency, the club has yet to trade from its glut of left-handed outfield talent, and Boston also has plenty of MLB-ready pitching to dangle (and even fewer innings for those young arms after adding Gray).

3. Will more pre-Thanksgiving deals shake loose?

While deals on Thanksgiving itself are somewhat rare, the days leading up to the holiday often create a bit of a rush of activity as players and teams look to push some deals across the finish line prior to holiday festivities. We’ve already seen some major trades between yesterday’s Gray deal and the weekend’s swap of Brandon Nimmo and Marcus Semien. Phil Maton and Jake Fraley have both wrapped up free-agent deals within the past couple days, with the former headed to the Cubs and the latter signing back with Tampa Bay just days after being non-tendered.

Last year, we saw both Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi sign within 48 hours of Thanksgiving (as you can see using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker). The year prior, each of Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Reynaldo Lopez closed free agent deals in in the days leading up to the holiday. In 2022, the Hunter Renfroe trade between the Angels and Brewers came together the day prior to Thanksgiving. Another deal or two on either the trade or free agent market could come to fruition before tomorrow.

Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:

1. Marlins looking to spend?

As the Marlins look to avoid a potential grievance, they could be looking to spend more than they usually would in the offseason. It’s a situation not unlike the one that led the A’s to sign Luis Severino and Jose Leclerc, extend Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler, and trade for Jeffrey Springs last winter. So far, the Marlins have been connected to high-end relievers such as Devin Williams and even a qualified free agent in right-hander Michael King. As far as extension talks go, it’s been reported that the club spoke with outfielder Kyle Stowers about a potential contract, though they faced a gap that appears insurmountable for the time being. While a Stowers extension seems unlikely for the time being, perhaps the club could explore talks with another player on the roster like Eury Perez, Xavier Edwards or Jakob Marsee.

2. Rockies personnel shuffle:

Yesterday, it was announced that Warren Schaeffer would have the “interim” tag removed from his title and officially become the next Rockies manager after signing a multi-year deal under newly-minted president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta. That completes the most significant overhaul Rockies’ leadership has seen in quite some time. GM Bill Schmidt was fired at season’s end, assistant GM Zack Rosenthal left the team shortly thereafter, and manager Bud Black was dismissed back in May. Now that Schaeffer is in place, he’ll have the opportunity to remake his coaching staff as he sees fit in a way he wasn’t able to after taking over for Black midway through the 2025 campaign. The Rockies will now join a host of other teams looking to fill out their coaching staffs this winter after nearly a third of the league shook things up in the dugout this year. DePodesta will also likely bring in some new faces to build out his front office as well; there’ll be plenty of new faces arriving in Denver over the next few weeks.

3. MLBTR chat today:

The offseason is underway, and the hot stove is starting to sizzle. Two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have signed so far (in addition to the four who accepted qualifying offers), and the trade market has started buzzing early as Taylor Ward, Grayson Rodriguez, Marcus Semien, and Brandon Nimmo have all changed hands in the first few weeks of the offseason. Whether your team is looking to load up for a playoff run next year or rebuild for the future, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat at 1pm CT later today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world as we head into the week:

1. What’s next for the Rangers?

A surprising swap of big names on large contracts happened yesterday, as the Rangers sent second baseman Marcus Semien to the Mets in exchange for Brandon Nimmo. From the Rangers’ perspective, the deal allows them to re-imagine their lineup and replace non-tendered corner outfielder Adolis Garcia while still staying in line with their goals to cut payroll this year. While Nimmo is on the books for five years as opposed to Semien’s three, he’ll actually cost about $4.75MM less per year for luxury tax purposes after factoring in the cash New York sent alongside Texas’ new left fielder. With a luxury tax payroll that RosterResource now projects to land around just $191MM and Josh Smith free to take over at second base, the Rangers come out of this trade with the flexibility to perhaps even make another addition to the lineup or sign some bullpen help while still cutting payroll substantially from last year. It’s unclear what exact level ownership is comfortable spending to this year.

2. Mets’ infield logjam grows bigger:

The Semien-Nimmo trade is a bit more complicated from the Mets’ end. With Nimmo headed to the Rangers, the Mets now have Juan Soto as their only locked in regular in the outfield for the 2026 season. By contrast, they’re flush with infield options after adding Semien to a group that already included Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuna, and Ronny Mauricio. Semien and Francisco Lindor figure to handle regular reps up the middle, which would leave just two spots on the infield for those four youngsters. A Pete Alonso reunion would further cut into those opportunities. Also displaced by the deal is Jeff McNeil, who could move into the outfield if necessary but was already the subject of trade rumors even before this deal.

The Mets could move any of those infielders as they look for help in the rotation or bullpen. It’s also worth noting that one of the game’s perennial top spenders now has a corner outfield vacancy and less money on the long-term books when the market’s top free agent is corner outfielder Kyle Tucker.

3. Maton signing not yet official:

The Cubs agreed to terms with right-hander Phil Maton on a two-year deal Friday night, though that signing has not yet been finalized. Maton’s deal is pending a physical, and financial specifics are not yet known. The Cubs have been reluctant to commit to relievers on multi-year deals in recent years, making the signing all the more notable. Chicago’s last multi-year free agent signing for a relief arm was the Craig Kimbrel contract all the way back in June of 2019. (They did make a strong offer to Tanner Scott last winter, though.) Is this a change in philosophy or merely a one-off? The Cubs have plenty of space on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move will not be necessary when the Maton deal becomes official.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Non-tender deadline arrives:

This evening, teams around baseball will need to decide whether to offer contracts to their arbitration- and pre-arbitration level players. Those who are non-tendered will head directly into free agency without being placed on waivers. Earlier this week, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco made a comprehensive list of players who could at least theoretically be at risk of a non-tender today, although the majority of them likely will not actually head into free agency.

Many will simply be tendered a contract by their team and go through the normal arbitration process, landing a salary around what MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for them last month. Others could sign at a discount right away on a “pre-tender” deal to avoid arbitration, like Connor Wong did with the Red Sox yesterday. Still others could be traded to another team more interested in paying their arbitration price tag, which we saw when the Astros and Braves swapped arbitration-level players by sending Mauricio Dubon to Atlanta in exchange for Nick Allen.

2. Trade candidates ahead of tonight’s deadline:

As teams look to get something out of players they’re considering a non-tender for, a number of trades could be possible today. The Rangers have already been shopping outfielder Adolis Garcia and catcher Jonah Heim for days as they look to shed payroll, and a non-tender could be in the cards for either or both if a trade isn’t worked out. Meanwhile, some players who were designated for assignment earlier this week could be traded in the coming hours before their team would otherwise cut them and send them into free agency. JJ Bleday of the A’s, Ramon Urias of the Astros, and Christopher Morel of the Rays are among the players DFA’d earlier this week who could theoretically still be dealt if a team was interested in picking them up at their arbitration price tag.

3. Posting windows opening:

For players coming over from Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan or South Korea’s Korean Baseball Organization, free agency can be a much more abbreviated affair. Players posted by their NPB clubs for MLB teams have just a 45-day window to sign, while that same window is only 30 days for KBO players. NPB right-hander Tatsuya Imai’s negotiating period began yesterday, and he’ll be followed today by both NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto and righty Kona Takahashi according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Imai’s posting window will run through January 2, while Okamoto and Takahashi will both see their windows last through January 4. Top international power bat Munetaka Murakami’s negotiating window began two weeks ago, and KBO infielder Sung-mun Song figures to be officially posted this weekend to kick of his own window.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Braves getting down to business:

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has long been known for his desire to move quickly during the offseason, and yesterday saw him kick off Atlanta’s offseason in a big way. The team re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias on a one-year deal worth $16MM and followed that move up by swinging a trade with the Astros for utilityman Mauricio Dubon. Iglesias helps to steady a bullpen mix that bid farewell to righties Tyler Kinley and Pierce Johnson when their club options were declined. Dubon gives the club a viable answer at shortstop should they fail to find an upgrade elsewhere and an excellent bench piece if he does wind up squeezed out of the starting lineup. In addition to further exploring the shortstop market, Atlanta will be on the hunt for rotation help and another reliever or two.

2. Trade market heating up?

The Dubon deal was the second notable trade in as many days, joining the surprise swap of Taylor Ward for Grayson Rodriguez between the Angels and Orioles. Neither Ward nor Rodriguez was a potential non-tender candidate, but Dubon and Nick Allen (whom the Astros acquired in exchange for Dubon) both might have been on their previous teams. MLBTR’s list of non-tender candidates released yesterday, and GMs around the league will surely be focused on trying to work out trades for any of their players who they don’t plan to tender a contract to tomorrow over the next day. Some notable trade candidates on that list include Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, Jonathan India, Alec Bohm, Jesus Sanchez, and Bailey Falter.

3. Could Iglesias spark more relief market movement?

Iglesias re-upping with the Braves wasn’t exactly a shocking move, given Atlanta’s proclivity towards familiar faces and a need for help at the back of a bullpen that lacked certainty outside of Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer. Even so, there have been indications this winter that the market for relief arms could move more quickly than other parts of free agency. Iglesias is far from the only interesting name available in a market led by Edwin Diaz. Robert Suarez, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams are all notable names who should get strong contracts this winter, while Brad Keller, Pete Fairbanks, and Luke Weaver might lack that star power but would still be exciting additions to the back of virtually any bullpen. Who will be the next to sign?

Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:

1. What’s next for the Orioles?

Last night’s surprising trade between the Orioles and Angels saw Baltimore bring Taylor Ward into the outfield mix, while Anaheim added a high upside arm to their rotation in Grayson Rodriguez. There’s little reason to wonder why the Angels swapped a rental bat for a roll of the dice on a young pitcher under long-term control who was once among the very best pitching prospects in baseball.

Baltimore’s motivations aren’t quite so easy to parse, given that the club’s outfield was already somewhat crowded with Ward now joining Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Leody Taveras, Heston Kjerstad and prospect Enrique Bradfield. The trade helps balance out a lefty-heavy Orioles lineup, but Baltimore was already in clear need of additional rotation help. Might the addition of Ward signal that the O’s are prepared to use some of their existing outfield depth to help land a starter? Will they simply turn to the free agent market to fill out their starting staff?

2. Several players in DFA limbo ahead of non-tender deadline:

A large number of players were designated for assignment ahead of yesterday’s deadline to protect prospects from the Rule 5 draft. JJ Bleday, Christopher Morel, Jake Fraley, Tayler Saucedo, Jason Foley, and Ramon Urias stand out among the most notable names to end up in limbo after yesterday’s moves, and now those players figure to be available to any team interested in trading for them at a minimal price before their current teams likely non-tender them this coming Friday. Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia and catcher Jonah Heim weren’t designated for assignment, but they’re being shopped ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline. Will Texas line up on a deal for either of the two?

3. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent podcast:

A special episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast goes live today, as Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco for a two-hour conversation covering MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 MLB Free Agents for the 2025-26 offseason with predictions. Whether it’s a discussion of Kyle Tucker and MLBTR’s $400MM prediction for the offseason’s top free agent, or the unpredictability of Dylan Cease’s market coming off a relative down season, the podcast provides insight into the discussions that went into this year’s Top 50 list. The episode is already live on both Spotify and Apple Podcasts, and will be posted here on MLBTR later this morning!

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Deadline for qualifying offer decisions:

Today’s the deadline for players who were extended the qualifying offer to make their decisions on whether to accept the QO or head into free agency encumbered by draft pick compensation. The majority of the 13 players who received a QO will reject it without much thought, but there are a handful of edge cases who could at least consider accepting the one-year, $22.05MM deal rather than testing the open market. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco conducted a poll of MLBTR readers last night that suggested fans believe Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres is the most likely player to accept. That’s MLBTR’s own judgment, as well; Torres was the only player we predicted would accept the QO in our Top 50 MLB free agents list. Shota Imanaga, Zac Gallen, and Trent Grisham are among the other players who could plausibly opt to accept the QO today.

2. Rule 5 protection deadline:

Today isn’t just the deadline for QO decisions. While the QO decisions get much of the attention, today’s deadline on protecting prospects from the Rule 5 draft by adding them to the 40-man roster figures to impact every club in the league. Teams with cluttered 40-man rosters will be looking to either trade Rule 5 eligible prospects they can’t fit on the roster or discard players already on the 40-man to make room for those prospects. Meanwhile, teams with plenty of 40-man roster space will be looking for the opportunity to add players squeezed out of other organizations to their own rosters. While the Rule 5 draft itself won’t occur until the Winter Meetings next month, today’s efforts to protect players from it figure to spark plenty of movement around the league.

3. Naylor introductory press conference:

Josh Naylor’s five-year deal with the Mariners is now official. As a result, the Mariners are hosting a press conference to officially re-introduce Naylor to the media as a long-term member of the organization later today. Naylor himself will be present, of course, as well as his agent, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander. Dipoto and Hollander’s presence could leave the door open for hints towards the Mariners’ plans for the rest of their offseason, which could offer insight onto how they’ll continue to build on this year’s team after missing the World Series by just one game and making one of the largest free agent investments of Dipoto’s tenure with the organization into Naylor.

As the first major piece of the offseason puzzle shakes loose, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Naylor nearing deal:

The big news from this weekend was the Mariners and first baseman Josh Naylor getting together on what’s expected to be a five-year deal in the range of $90MM-$100MM. That Naylor re-upped in Seattle is hardly a surprise given that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto had made it extremely clear that retaining Naylor was a “priority” for his front office headed into the winter. Naylor himself was candid about enjoying his stay in town as well, as well. Even if it was an expected outcome, however, a deal coming together so quickly and at a level that seems likely to meet or slightly exceed MLBTR’s five-year $90MM prediction for his eventual contract seems like a good sign for the players on the market this winter. The deal figures to be made official at some point in the near future, and a more specific breakdown of the contract structure is likely to be revealed in the coming days as well.

2. What’s next for Seattle?

Now that Seattle has landed their top priority of the winter, it’s fair to wonder what a team that came just one game from the World Series this season will do moving forward. It would make sense for them to continue looking for ways to bolster their infield, given that Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez both hit free agency alongside Naylor to open up holes at second and third base. The Mariners are also known to be looking into the high leverage relief market this winter. One other question would be about the future of Harry Ford, who showed himself to be ready for the big leagues but is blocked from everyday playing time by Cal Raleigh behind the plate. Perhaps Ford could be tabbed as the team’s backup catcher and get semi-regular starts elsewhere in the lineup, though it also seems as though a trade may not be off the table.

3. Nationals to introduce Blake Butera:

As noted by Bobby Blanco of MASN, newly-minted Nationals manager Blake Butera will be available to the media later today in an introductory press conference scheduled for 1:30pm local time. Butera, 33, is the youngest manager in MLB as he steps into his new role and is arguably among the most unorthodox in a sea of unusual managerial hires this winter. President of baseball operations Paul Toboni will presumably be in attendance as well and has spoken effusively of his new skipper in previous comments to the media. Prior to being hired by Toboni, Butera had served as the Rays’ senior director of player development and was a manager in the minor leagues for four seasons.