The Opener

With one free agent move already in the books this morning, here are three more things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Will the rotation market heat up?

After weeks of a relatively frozen rotation market, things finally started to pick up this weekend when the Cardinals signed Dustin May to a one-year deal while the Diamondbacks reunited with Kelly on a pact worth $40MM over two years. The top of the market is still largely untouched (aside from Dylan Cease), leaving plenty of viable options for interested teams like Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suarez. The middle tier of this year’s market could be moving more quickly, by contrast, with Kelly having now signed and plenty of buzz surrounding other mid-market players like Zac Gallen and Michael King. Who could be the next domino to fall?

2. Relief market dwindling fast:

The market for relief pitching has been by far the fastest moving of the winter so far, and that didn’t change this weekend. Kenley Jansen and Tyler Rogers both came off the board as the former inked a one-year pact with the Tigers while the latter landed with Toronto on a three-year deal. Precious few high-end relief arms remain available at this point, with Brad Keller and Pete Fairbanks standing out as the best of the rest. There are still some very interesting candidates who could be had on one-year deals due to age. That’s a group that includes right-hander Chris Martin, who reportedly plans to pitch in 2026 in his age-40 season.

3. Mets fill first base in unorthodox fashion; what’s next?

Mets fans are still reeling from the loss of Pete Alonso to the Orioles at this year’s Winter Meetings, but president of baseball operations David Stearns wasted no time in getting a deal done with another veteran bat who’ll effectively take his spot in the lineup. Switch-hitter Jorge Polanco inked a two-year deal to come to Queens over the weekend, and despite spending most of his big league career as a second baseman, he’ll reportedly be used primarily at first base and DH with the Mets. Polanco’s a quality addition to the lineup, to be sure, but he lacks the power potential that Alonso brought to the table on such a consistent basis. Will the Mets look to supplement that lost power with a big bat in the outfield or at third base? Is there a big move in store on the pitching side of things?

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Alonso’s introductory press conference:

The Orioles are holding an introductory press conference for newly-minted first baseman Pete Alonso today at 4pm local time in Baltimore. Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias, principal owner David Rubenstein, and agent Scott Boras will be on hand to give statements and take questions alongside Alonso. The presser should offer some insight into  Alonso’s free agency and departure from the Mets, as well as the Orioles’ future plans — both this offseason and in the longer term.

2. Signings to be made official:

With this year’s Winter Meetings now in the rearview mirror, there’s a number of reported signings that have yet to be made official. Agreements between outfielder Lane Thomas and the Royals, reliever Mark Leiter Jr. and the Athletics, left-hander Hoby Milner and the Cubs, lefty Steven Matz and the Rays, right-hander Michael Soroka and the D-backs, closer Kyle Finnegan and the Tigers, and southpaw Gregory Soto and the Pirates have yet to be finalized and formally announced. Most notably, the Dodgers have yet to announce their signing of Edwin Diaz.

Most of those teams have spots available on their 40-man roster, so making the signing official is little more than a formality. For the Diamondbacks, Rays, and Tigers, however, their full rosters mean a corresponding move will be necessary in order for each club to finalize their respective additions. That will likely come by designating a player for assignment, though it’s also possible that those clubs could look to work out a minor trade to clear 40-man space.

3. Top relief options dwindling:

Right-hander Robert Suarez came off the board yesterday when he signed in Atlanta, and in doing so he joined Diaz, Devin Williams, Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Helsley and Kyle Finnegan as established closers who have already found a home this winter. That leaves the pickings as relatively slim for clubs interested in adding to the back of their bullpen at this point. Right-hander Brad Keller, who emerged as an outstanding setup man and part-time closer for the Cubs this past year, longtime Rays closer Pete Fairbanks, veteran submariner Tyler Rogers, and former Yankees righty Luke Weaver are among the top remaining arms on the market. Who will be next to sign?

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Mets turn the page on an era:

The departures of Edwin Diaz and Pete Alonso during the Winter Meetings, in conjunction with last month’s trade of Brandon Nimmo, mean that three of the Mets’ longest-tenured players will all play elsewhere in 2026. President of baseball operations David Stearns was already facing plenty of pressure this winter to improve the roster after a disappointing year where his club missed the postseason in Juan Soto’s first season on the roster. With Diaz and Alonso officially out of the organization, that pressure is rising even more.

How will the Mets respond to those losses? A pursuit of Munetaka Murakami or Kazuma Okamoto could make some sense to replace Alonso at first base, and Robert Suarez remains a logical replacement for Diaz (alongside Devin Williams) in the ninth inning next year. Those replacements won’t be enough by themselves, however. New York remains in desperate need of help in the outfield and continues to look for help at the front of their rotation. Bringing in a top free agent like Kyle Tucker in the outfield or Tatsuya Imai in the rotation would surely help fans in Queens get over the losses of franchise stalwarts like Alonso this winter.

2. What’s next for the Orioles?

On the other side of the coin, fans in Baltimore were jubilant as their club finally made the big splash they’ve been hoping to see for years. With Alonso now in the fold for the next five seasons, the Orioles seem unlikely to take their foot off the gas just yet. They remain involved in the market for high-end rotation pieces, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them add someone like Framber Valdez to the front of their rotation in free agency alongside Alonso. Of course, the free agent market isn’t the only avenue for improvement available. The addition of Alonso displaces Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle on the team’s depth chart, and Mayo in particular could be the sort of high-end trade chip who makes landing a top starter in trade like Edward Cabrera or MacKenzie Gore (both of whom Baltimore has been connected to this winter) all the more feasible. What’s the next move for president of baseball operations Mike Elias?

3. When will the dam break in the rotation market?

For all the activity in and around this year’s winter meetings, things have remained quiet on the rotation front this winter. The market for relievers has been bustling all winter, with only a handful of the top closing options still available. The market for position players has been slower, but hitters did start to come off the board after Kyle Schwarber re-upped in Philadelphia, with Alonso and Mike Yastrzemski both signing yesterday. Every top free agent starter remains on the market besides Dylan Cease, however, and the trade market has seen no movement outside of the Red Sox adding Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo.

Will things get moving in the coming days? It’s certainly possible. This week’s meetings surely hosted a number of important conversations between buyers and sellers on the trade markets, giving teams like the Mets, Orioles, and Cubs a better idea of which starters could actually be attainable for them while allowing sellers like the Marlins and Nationals to see which teams might come closest to their asking prices. In free agency, meanwhile, some reporting has indicated that Imai will begin visiting teams now that the Winter Meetings have come to a close with an eye towards signing before the holidays. Given that Imai’s posting window closes on January 2, the right-hander’s free agency could potentially serve as a catalyst that kicks the larger market for starting pitching into gear.

As the Winter Meetings continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Rule 5 Draft today:

Baseball’s annual Rule 5 Draft is scheduled to take place at 1pm CT this afternoon. International players and high school draft picks who signed in 2020 and college draft picks signed in 2021 who have not yet been added to their club’s 40-man roster are vulnerable in today’s draft, where any club can select them for a $100K fee. If the player does not stick on their new club’s 26-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to his original club for $50K. Teams must have open space on their 40-man roster to select a player in the draft, meaning the Twins, Orioles, Braves, Rays, and Diamondbacks would each need to clear space on their 40-man roster before the draft begins in order to participate.

Players selected in the Rule 5 draft occasionally go on to impact their team in the future, as free agent outfielder Anthony Santander famously did following his selection in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft. 2025’s draft saw White Sox right-hander Shane Smith and Marlins catcher Liam Hicks stick with the clubs that drafted them on the 26-man roster through the entire year, while right-hander Mike Vasil was claimed off waivers by the White Sox and remained in Chicago for the whole year as well. Smith, in particular, is noteworthy for earning an All-Star appearance and down-ballot consideration in AL Rookie of the Year voting thanks to his 3.81 ERA in 29 starts for Chicago. Will a similarly valuable diamond in the rough be unearthed today?

2. Could the Pirates pivot to Polanco?

The Pirates were among the teams most aggressive in pursuing slugger Kyle Schwarber, but after he turned down the club’s four-year, $120MM offer they could still look to reallocate at least some of those resources to other pursuits in their efforts to upgrade the offense. Pittsburgh has been connected to infielder Jorge Polanco in the past, and Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reported yesterday that the Pirates were expected to put an offer on the table for the switch hitter’s services soon. Will Polanco be the big free agent fish Ben Cherington’s front office has been working to land, or will they end up looking elsewhere for offensive talent to support Paul Skenes and the rest of their excellent rotation?

3. Relief market buzzing:

The market for relievers has been the busiest part of free agency so far this winter, and yesterday was no exception as Edwin Diaz landed with the Dodgers on a three-year agreement. Diaz wasn’t the only significant name to come off the market yesterday either, as the Pirates signed southpaw Gregory Soto to a one-year deal and the Tigers re-upped with Kyle Finnegan on a two-year pact. That takes three more late-inning arms off the market and leaves the teams still in the market for top relievers running low on options. Robert Suarez is now the best option on the market and is drawing interest from a pair of new suitors, but he’s hardly the only interesting option available. Brad Keller, Luke Weaver, Tyler Rogers, Seranthony Dominguez, and Pete Fairbanks are all also still available after landing on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Who will be the next to sign?

Three things we’ll be keeping an eye on as the Winter Meetings continue in Orlando…

1. The Schwarber Watch continues

While most believe Kyle Schwarber will eventually re-sign with the Phillies, the veteran slugger continues to draw tons of interest from around the league.  The Mets are the latest team linked to Schwarber’s market, joining the Phillies and such other clubs as the Giants, Orioles, Red Sox, Pirates (who have made a four-year offer), and Reds (Schwarber’s hometown team).  ESPN’s Buster Olney, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, and other pundits have heard that Schwarber might be the first major position-player free agent to decide on a new team, so if Schwarber makes his choice during the Winter Meetings, that could open up more movement for other players.

2. Polar warning in Orlando

Pete Alonso will be among the free agents there in person at the Winter Meetings, taking the trip up from his Tampa-area home to meet with some of his suitors face to face.  The Mets are naturally familiar enough with Alonso that they won’t be meeting with their longtime slugger, but the Orioles and Red Sox are two of the clubs expected to sit down with Alonso to discuss a possible contract.  Given the overlap in their list of suitors, Alonso is one of the free agents who might particularly benefit if Schwarber signs fairly quickly, as plenty of hitting-needy teams may logically turn to Alonso as a power source.

3. Draft Lottery takes place

The fourth MLB Draft Lottery will be held today at 4:30PM CT, and 15 non-playoff teams are eligible to win a top-six selection in the 2026 draft.  (The 119-loss Rockies aren’t eligible because they won a lottery picks in each of the previous two drafts, and the Nationals and Angels aren’t eligible because teams that pay revenue-sharing funds can’t receive lottery picks in consecutive drafts.)

This leaves the White Sox with the best odds (27.73%) of landing the first overall pick, though as we’ve seen in the first three years of the draft lottery’s existence, the numbers don’t always work out as the chalk would suggest.  The Pirates were one of three teams with an equal share of the top odds when they won the 2022 lottery (and the chance to draft Paul Skenes in 2023), but the Guardians had only a two percent chance of winning when they got lucky in the 2023 lottery, and the Nationals had just the fourth-highest odds when they won last year’s lottery.  Beyond just the 1-1 pick, the lottery has led to plenty of shakeups within the top six, so teams with winning records like the Astros, Mets, or Royals still have an outside shot at a high first-round pick.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Winter Meetings Underway:

Players, agents, and executives alike arrived in Orlando last night for this year’s Winter Meetings, which officially kick off today and run through this coming Thursday. Even before the meetings began, there was significant movement around the league. The big news of this weekend was a trade between the Mariners and Nationals that saw top prospect Harry Ford head to D.C. in exchange for ground balling lefty Jose A. Ferrer. Many more trades and transactions figure to follow over the coming days, and last year’s Winter Meetings famously kicked off with a record-shattering contract between Juan Soto and the Mets. What will the biggest stories of this year’s meetings be? Be sure to check in with MLBTR throughout the coming days to hear about all the latest news!

2. Schwarber gets a big offer… from the Pirates?

The market for slugging DH Kyle Schwarber has been among the most active for any position player this offseason, and last night word broke that he’s received at least one significant offer. That four-year offer is expected to be worth more than $100MM, and comes from an unusual place: Pittsburgh. Pirates brass have frequently indicated this winter that they have more resources at their disposal than usual, but a nine-figure deal for Schwarber would be a massive departure from the franchise’s previous comfort zone; they’ve never signed a free agent to a guarantee of $40MM in the past. Schwarber is also known to be pursued by the incumbent Phillies as well as the Reds, Red Sox, Giants, and Orioles. With one offer already on the table, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the slugger’s market move quickly over the coming days.

3. Teams keeping an eye on Marte:

While the Diamondbacks have made clear that they don’t necessarily plan on trading Ketel Marte, that hasn’t stopped various teams from keeping an eye on the switch hitting All-Star. The 32-year-old would immediately become the best hitter available on the trade market if Arizona were to shop him, and there’s a number of teams already checking in. Yesterday, it was reported that the Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Pirates, and Mariners have all been keeping an eye on Marte as a possible addition to their respective lineups. In a market where Bo Bichette is the only star-level middle infielder available via free agency, Marte figures to be especially attractive to teams in need of infield talent. That could spur the Diamondbacks to consider a trade, particularly as their payroll has reached record levels in recent years and their rotation has been depleted by the departures of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly (not to mention Tommy John surgery for Corbin Burnes).

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on headed into the weekend:

1. Winter Meetings to begin:

The Winter Meetings are set to begin next week, which means on Sunday players, agents, and executives alike from around the game will begin flocking to Orlando. There’s been plenty of trade and free agent activity already. Impact free agents like Devin Williams and Dylan Cease have already signed, and the trade market has been buzzing all winter long with deals like the Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien swap, Boston’s acquisition of Sonny Gray, and last night’s five-player deal between the Pirates and Red Sox. The activity should only ratchet up from here leading up to and throughout the meetings, with plenty of exciting moves to come in the next few days. Be sure to stay tuned in to MLBTR for all the latest rumors and deals!

2. Red Sox loading up on pitching:

Yesterday’s aforementioned trade saw Boston ship top outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia (along with pitching prospect Jesus Travieso) to Pittsburgh for a package consisting of right-hander Johan Oviedo, minor league lefty Tyler Samaniego, and catching prospect Adonys Guzman. The deal added another viable starter to a Red Sox club that was already deep in rotation candidates. Oviedo likely slots in towards the back of the club’s rotation alongside Patrick Sandoval, with Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Brayan Bello in the first three slots and younger pieces like Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison, and Payton Tolle serving as depth. Even that doesn’t factor in Kutter Crawford, who missed the 2025 season due to injury but was a valuable rotation piece as recently as 2024. The Red Sox figure to remain quite active in the offseason markets headed into next week’s Winter Meetings.

3. Eras Committee voting results to be revealed:

One of the first pieces of the Winter Meetings schedule is also one of its most important, as a committee of former players, executives, and media members will convene to vote on the Hall of Fame candidacies of this year’s slate of Eras Committee nominees. This year’s nominees are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Carlos Delgado, Jeff Kent, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Gary Sheffield, and Fernando Valenzuela. At least 12 votes from the committee’s 16 members are needed to be inducted into Cooperstown, and the results of that vote will be revealed at 6:30pm CT this coming Sunday on MLB Network.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Movement in Tucker’s market?

It’s been a fairly active week on the free agent market, but things have mostly been quiet surrounding star outfielder Kyle Tucker. That changed yesterday, however, when a report emerged that Tucker had visited the Blue Jays’ spring training facility in Dunedin, Florida. It’s the first known meeting between the winter’s top free agent and a team, and the news continues a trend of Toronto being by far the most aggressive team in baseball to this point in the offseason. Adding Dylan Cease to the rotation and Kyle Tucker to the lineup would be enough for a banner offseason by itself, to say nothing of the Jays’ deal with Cody Ponce or their reported pursuits of players like Bo Bichette and Pete Fairbanks, who are still on the market.

Does Tucker have other in-person visits lined up? Are the Jays preparing a formal offer? More details on his market could emerge in the near future.

2. Rays 40-man roster move incoming:

The Rays reached an agreement with outfielder Cedric Mullins on a one-year deal yesterday, adding to an outfield that was in desperate need of reinforcements beyond re-signing Jake Fraley shortly after his non-tender. Tampa Bay will need to clear a spot on their 40-man roster to accommodate Mullins. The most common way to accomplish that is simply by designating a player for assignment, but it’s also possible the Rays could look to work out a trade that clears 40-man roster space instead. Tampa Bay is hardly a stranger to the trade market, and players on the roster like Brandon Lowe are already garnering attention as potential trade pieces this winter.

3. Other signings to be made official:

Mullins isn’t the only reported deal that has yet to be made official. Deals between the Dodgers and Miguel Rojas, the Blue Jays and Cody Ponce, the White Sox and Anthony Kay, as well as the Reds and Emilio Pagan are all still pending physicals and will need to be formalized in the coming days. That’s in addition to the deal between the Astros and Ryan Weiss, which has still yet to be made official and (unlike Rojas, Ponce, Kay, and Pagan) will require a 40-man roster move on the part of Houston. With the Winter Meetings fast approaching, signings and the subsequently required 40-man roster maintenance necessary to accommodate those fresh deals will surely continue to pile up.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Astros 40-man roster move incoming:

The Astros are reportedly signing right-hander Ryan Weiss to a major league deal, bringing him over from the Korea Baseball Organization. The Astros have a full 40-man roster, so they’ll need to make a move in order to accommodate their new signing. The most common way to accomplish that is simply by designating a player for assignment, but it’s also possible Houston could look to work out a trade that clears 40-man roster space instead. That could be a minor trade of a low-level player on the 40-man, but a bigger deal is also possible given that Houston is reportedly receiving interest in outfielders Jake Meyers and Jesus Sanchez on the trade market.

2. Fairbanks next to move?

Former Rays right-hander Pete Fairbanks was a somewhat unexpected addition to this year’s free agent market after the Rays declined their $11MM club option on his services for the 2026 season. He’s garnered plenty of interest in the weeks since then, with the Tigers, Marlins, and Blue Jays among a number of teams known to be involved in his market on at least some level. The relief market has gotten moving faster than the rest of this winter’s free agent class, with names such as Raisel Iglesias, Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley and Phil Maton having already come off the board on notable contracts. Could Fairbanks be the next domino to fall?

3. What’s next for the Jays?

The Blue Jays reportedly reached an agreement with right-hander Cody Ponce yesterday, and in doing so added a second starter to a rotation that already brought in Dylan Cease earlier this winter. With Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Jose Berrios already in place from last year plus top prospect Trey Yesavage and depth options like Eric Lauer, Yariel Rodriguez, and Bowden Francis, the addition of Ponce creates a glut of rotation options. Perhaps a pivot to the trade market could make some sense to leverage that depth, though it’s also worth noting that star shortstop Bo Bichette remains unsigned and the Jays, as previously mentioned, remain involved in the market for Fairbanks and other high-end relief arms.

Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day:

1. Relief market buzzing:

Last night saw the Mets sign right-hander Devin Williams to a three-year, $51MM deal (with $15MM in deferrals). It’s the latest in a string of relief signings that also includes deals for Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, and Phil Maton. With three impact closers already off the board and a number of teams (including the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Marlins) known to be looking for relief help this winter, that can only be good news for the remaining high-leverage relief arms on the market. Edwin Diaz remains at the front of the pack, with Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks, Emilio Pagan, and Kyle Finnegan among the many noteworthy bullpen arms still available on the market.

2. Mets land a big fish:

Last night’s Williams deal provides cover for the Mets if Diaz winds up signing elsewhere, though they’re also not ruling out a reunion with their star ninth-inning man. Regardless of what happens with Diaz, there’s plenty more work to be done for the Mets this winter. Pete Alonso needs to be re-signed or replaced on the infield, there are multiple holes in the outfield, and trade candidacies for players like Jeff McNeil and Kodai Senga have yet to be resolved. And that’s all before considering the Mets’ well-known desire to improve the front of their rotation this winter. It’s already been a busy offseason in Queens — the Mets also swapped out Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien — but president of baseball operations David Stearns shows no signs of slowing down yet.

3. MLBTR chat today:

The offseason is underway, and the hot stove is starting to sizzle. Five of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have signed so far (in addition to the four who accepted qualifying offers), and the trade market has started buzzing early as Taylor Ward, Grayson Rodriguez, Marcus Semien, and Brandon Nimmo have all changed hands in the first few weeks of the offseason. Whether your team is looking to load up for a playoff run next year or rebuild for the future, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat at 11am CT later today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.