This week's mailbag gets into the Yankees and Nolan Arenado, whether Adolis Garcia will bounce back, the Orioles' position player surplus, possible Red Sox extensions, fits for Alec Bohm, a pair of hypothetical trade offers, and more.
Ralph asks:
Why are we seeing so many ideas for trades if the Yankees are so close to the threshold? If does not seem that anyone wants to take salary off of the Yankees, so how could they afford Bregman, Arenado or anyone else?
George asks:
The Yankees and Nolan Arenado seem like great fits for each other. Arenado at third would be an upgrade defensively, and he teams back up with Goldy. Jazz moves back to second. With Volpe at short, the infield should be sound defensively.
I know Mo turned down an Arenado for Stroman swap, but perhaps he might reconsider a trade involving Stroman as Spring Training arrives. The Cardinals were rumored to be interested in Clayton Beeter maybe a year or so ago. Also, they could use a right-handed bat.
Do see any pathway forward for a trade that satisfies the needs of both teams?
Daniel asks:
Will the Yankees eventually make a deal for Arenado and dump Stroman to the Cards?
The Yankees' competitive balance tax payroll sits around $305MM, according to RosterResource. So they're already over the last threshold and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar added. Back in May, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner famously said, "Look, I’m gonna be honest, payrolls at levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially." So while the Yankees had a CBT payroll of $316MM in 2024, it's fair to suggest they won't go much higher and might simply subtract.
It's worth keeping in mind that Stroman is not directly tied to Arenado. The Yankees may simply eat, say, $10-12MM of the $18MM owed to him and enjoy the salary and tax savings.
We touched on this last week, but reporting this offseason has suggested the Yankees' interest in Arenado ranges from non-existent to modest. Yesterday, Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote, "The New York Yankees have continued to check in on Arenado as well, league sources said, but payroll concerns from both organizations have made a trade unlikely at this point."
Arenado's situation seems more tied to Alex Bregman and the Red Sox than anything to do with the Yankees. Regarding the financial aspect, two days ago, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote, "It’s become apparent how teams want the ticking clock to pressure the Cardinals into covering more salary than the $15 million-$20 million they have expected."
Before the Cardinals kick in a dime, Arenado's CBT hit is somewhere below $21.33MM per year, since A) the Rockies are paying $10MM of his remaining $74MM and B) $12MM is deferred without interest until 2032. We can use $20MM as an estimate here.
There are two related complications with Arenado. The first: how is he going to perform over the next three years? Some projection systems say he'll stick right around 3 WAR in 2025. On the other end, the aforementioned The Bat X puts him at 1.4 WAR. Wherever you project for '25, Arenado's age-34 season, you'd factor in further decline for his age-35 and 36 campaigns.
In his recent chat, Derrick Goold wrote, "[The Yankees] want to take on the player but have the Cardinals take on the financial risk that Arenado would repeat this past year. That way it was all upside for the Yankees with the 'value' of Arenado's performance. They would be on the hook for what they considered the cost of him producing like he did in 2024, and the Cardinals would cover the rest."
I'd love to sit down with Brian Cashman and unpack that, because Arenado was worth 2.5 WAR per Baseball-Reference and 3.1 WAR per FanGraphs. Looking at various free agent position players who signed for one year, such as Gleyber Torres, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, and Max Kepler, the market has paid these types roughly $5-9MM per projected WAR.
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“Payroll not sustainable” – Hal Steinbrenner.
“The Cardinals have no use”..I don’t think trading their top prospect in Dominguez, is what the Yankees had in mind in their never-ending quest to move Marcus Stroman.
“Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner famously said, “Look, I’m gonna be honest, payrolls at levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially.”
Disingenuous or he doesn’t know how to read a spreadsheet or know what they charge for a beer at the Stadium.
Hal always says that about a year or two before the entire industry (most anyways) raises payroll significantly.
That’s an awful trades for the Yankees. Awful! Nolan Arenado is at the end of his career. Are you kidding trading a top prospect for salary dump l? Adding DJ doesn’t fix how bad this is. Throwing in money doesn’t either.
Here’s a fair trade
Yanks send DJ Stroman Will Warren and Oswaldo Cabrera for Arenado!
Congratulations on suggesting a trade both sides would instantly reject. From the Yankees side, that’s way too much talent for a guy who is under water contractually. For the Cards, they want to cut salary.
@Billy
I would do that deal in a heartbeat if I’m the Yanks. I like both prospects, but Arenando is still a top three 3b, though overpaid. Warren might be a good pitcher one day, but we have a deep rotation right now and the Yanks just drafted 10-15 college arms in the last draft class. Some will debut this summer. I like Cabrera too but if they don’t designate him worthy enough to earn the 3b job then he wouldn’t be much of a loss to bring in Arenando for the next 2-3 years in a very think free agent market for 3b in the next few years.
What team would claim Stroman if he was DFA’d??
What team wouldn’t claim Arenado if he were DFA’d??
I don’t think either would be claimed. They would all just wait for them to be released so they could go after them for league minimum.
Again….don’t need a 3rd baseman, making huge money, who is is losing his power stroke quickly, and is tied to a 3 year hitch when years 2 and 3 could be a very painful reminder of Donaldson……
Agreed Rocky. Looking at Arenado’s spray chart, he would be even worse in YS. Let Peraza or Cabrera see what they can do and look for a trade at the deadline if needed. But not for Arenado.
Facts don’t care about what anyone “thinks” and the charts say he would be worse.
This is correct. The number of HR’s Arenado has hit oppo field in his entire career could be one hand.
Go to sites such as Baseball Savant and Fangraphs and see for yourself.
He lost his bat speed and has trouble consistently pulling the ball. That’s where his power drop off came from
BITA
Just because some other 3b fell off doesn’t mean Arenado will. Thats just you being an idiot.
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He hit 16 H?Rs last year. I don’t see anything wrong with what Rocky said. He’s already fallen off.
Should the Yankees get Arenado, it will be one of the best additions they could possibly make this off season.
Yankee Fans are going to be in awe of his defense at 3rd base, especially working with Goldschmidt!!!
Hitting wise —- with Arenado being out of St. Louis’s poor environment….
He’ll have better hitting coaches, a winning Manager and a GM that supports him.
—— Yanks fans will definitely see the All-Star Arenado of the past.
“If he was DFA’d”…If Stroman were DFA’d he’d have LOTS of suitors since DFA means the Yankees would pay 98.5% of his salary.
Marcus Stroman has been an above average pitcher his entire career(despite numerous antics) and with a minimum salary price tag, he would easily have 3-6 suitors if not more.
I agree. The Yankees should keep Stroman, because they have a history of more injuries than just about anybody in baseball. And, like you said, he’s a slightly above average pitcher. And, since the Yankees seem like they’re going forward with that horrific platoon at 3B of DJLM, Cabrera and Peraza, they should’ve just kept Gleyber Torres for second and Jazz at third. Torres is like a first ballot Hall of Famer compared to those three guys, and didn’t cost Detroit much at all.
@Keenan
I don’t think Torres was giving them an option
It was pretty obvious he didn’t like Boone and wanted out.
If he were DFA’d and claimed, the new team pays the entire salary. You’re talking about if he goes unclaimed and refuses an assignment (which of course he would) making him a free agent available for league minimum.
If Stroman passed waivers then anyone could have him at league minimum. But back to my question, Who would take Stroman and his salary? He helps no team.
“Stroman passed waivers..He helps no team”…I beg to disagree. Marcus Stroman could step into the back end of several MLB rotations.
He’s been an above average SP his entire career. Once you take away the hefty $alary, his phone would be ringing off the hook. Back end pitchers and depth are very, very important these days.
I’ve seen a lot lesser pitchers than Marcus Stroman get a starting nod from their current team thru the years.
No team would even think about claiming either. I don’t think you mean “claim” (which would require the team to pay that player’s entire salary).
THEY LIVE!!!
What team wouldn’t claim Arenado if he were DFA’d??
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No team in BB would claim him.
JoeB
2.5 WAR vs a guy that’s only use is eating innings and being a .7 WAR player?
Stroman just was drafted in my 15 teamer 539th OA
Arenado is rated 183rd OA by Fantasy Pros.
I actually pegged Stroman as a negative value
“Only use is eating innings”…”Eating innings” is very important in MLB. For me, what you said is like saying the “only use” for money is spending it.
Let me be more blunt. Stroman is as useful as dead weight like a sand bag or a crash dummy. There’s about 300 minor leaguers that would be more useful.
“300 minor leaguers..more useful”..Yeah, that’s why those minor leaguers are in the minor leagues. Because they’re so “useful” to Major League teams, right?
Meanwhile, Marcus Stroman is eating crab cakes brought in from New England and counting his approximately $19,000,000 yearly salary at the New York Yankees after-practice training table.
If the Cardinals expect to trade Arenado at this point in his career and contract then they need to accept the fact that they will have to take a bad contract in return. Stroman’s contract is only this year and has an option if he pitches 140 innings which will never happen. The Cards are punting this season and should make this deal and send the difference in contract $$.
What is the benefit for the Cardinals to take Stroman and the difference in contract $. Yankee fans expect to save all the money and get all of the trade benefits.
Nobody said that except you and the rest of your Cardinal friends who are getting desperate about Arenado……go troll another site….
Rocky7, I could care less about the Cardinals so there’s one point. Stroman is an overpaid, head case that does not belong on a roster of a young team.
Arenado is owed I believe 55m over next 3 years
DJ is owed 30m over two years
Stroman 18m
So St Louis takes 48m and trades away 55m for a savings of 8m plus the Yanks send two decent prospects Will Warren and maybe Clayton Beeter.
That’s the best I would do if I’m the Yankees otherwise forget it.
@hockey
If the Yanks trade Stroman for Arenando, the Cards would be saving, at minimum, $28 to $46 mil depending on if they allow Stros ’26 incentives to trigger. Arenando is owed $64 mil once you subtract the $10 mil the Rockies are contributing. Stro makes $18 mil with another $18 mil option if triggered. If it doesn’t trigger they save $46 mil. If it does they save $28 mil
Well, your fans in St. Louis for starters…..
Who cares what the fans think? Kind of irrelevant.
@BITA
I really have no idea why you keep saying that. I’m previous posts I showed you quotes where your GM clearly stay red he wanted to reduce salary by moving Arenando. I actually thought was reversing that he was so upfront about it. You’re bring delusional.
@Bita
“Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak stressed that from his Dallas hotel suite on Monday night and backed it up, not only proclaiming his intention of trading 10-time Gold Glove winner Nolan Arenado, but venturing to guess that not doing so this winter would likely limit any hopes that the Cardinals have of coming out improved on the other side of what he called a “reset” for 2025.
Arenando didn’t ASK to be traded, and this management is trying to appease him. The GM publicly stated he intended in trading him and once Arenando heard the trade rumors and their intent not to compete this year he made it clear his preferred destination and his willingness to move to 1b of that helped. If his trade value was so high and the market so strong them, why would he even consider moving to 1b???
“From a financial standpoint of trying to move our payroll – there are certainly other ways to do that, but [trading Arenado] would be a big help. It’s financial, but it also creates a runway for someone else.”
@Bita
“Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak stressed that from his Dallas hotel suite on Monday night and backed it up, not only proclaiming his intention of trading 10-time Gold Glove winner Nolan Arenado, but venturing to guess that not doing so this winter would likely limit any hopes that the Cardinals have of coming out improved on the other side of what he called a “reset” for 2025.
“From a financial standpoint of trying to move our payroll – there are certainly other ways to do that, but [trading Arenado] would be a big help. It’s financial, but it also creates a runway for someone else.”
Or send a top prospect or two in return for taking on the full salary.
You must be smoking the wrong pipe!!
Wow…guess you haven’t heard of the LA Dodgers when you say they can just spend more and thats the solution…..trollish but that aside, Jazz is going to play either 2nd or 3rd and more than likely we can use internal options to see how they pan out or wait until the trade deadline to add….Arenado would be Donaldson 2.0 and a great mistake…..as far as Stroman is concerned, you never have enough pitching and lets see how they exit Spring before any panic on the Yankees part……
How did Anthony Rendon injure himself? Skiing? Falling out of a hammock? Slipping on a banana peel?
Probably peeling a banana
I find it fascinating that the Yankees simultaneously refuse to attach prospects to bad contracts in a trade (Stanton, Rodon, LeMahieu) while simultaneously refusing to give any prospects any avenue to playing time except for one (1) OF per season
Everyone talks about attaching prospects to bad contracts. It literally never happens in baseball. That’s a basketball thing. This is because in baseball the need to cut salary is never absolute like it is in the NBA or NFL, where you can flat be illegal if you don’t.
Personally I don’t think it happens because every prospect is overvalued by the organization as the next great thing. For this example, Oswaldo Cabrera was “the next Jeter” at one point and Cabrera only lived up to that defensively. He is (barely) a LF buried in Scranton right now. They could have attached him to Stanton’s contract a few years ago.
@Troy
No one ever compared Cabrera to Jeter. Maybe you have the players confused but Cabrera has spent most of the last two years as our “super utility” guy in the majors. Not sure what LF buried in Scranton you’re talking about.
@Troy
Stanton had a no- trade clause, so I don’t think they ever tried to shop him to anyone. Rodon isn’t a salary dump candidate. His year was a bad one, but he was pretty good last year. He’s just overpaid. In general, which do you think the Yanks have more of, money or prospects? Cashman should be fired if he ever gave up a “real” prospect to get rid of a bad contract, especially short-term ones like Stro or DJ.
Adolis Garcia, you would think he’s gonna go all out this year, it’s the last year of a 2 year contract and next year he will be arbitration eligible, so if he has a second down year I wouldn’t expect Texas to even offer him arbitration. And now having Berger and Joc he’s gonna have better opportunities this season.
I’ve been drawing some comparisons with Adolis Garcia and Sammy Sosa for a couple of years now.
Adolis seemed bothered about that contract. I don’t think he was too happy about it, and expressed some mild frustration during the off-season that probably lingered throughout the year.. Perhaps it was Garcia’s mentality in 2024 that produced a sub-standard season, so I think a bounce back campaign is highly likely.
Arias and Hess or Hampton for Donovan.
Arenando for Yoshida and a mid tier prospect
Angels should be in on him now since Randone’s out for almost a whole year time to put or shut Moreno I’m one fan that won’t go to watch this clown show
Cashman the fleecing GM rarely gives any decent fair trades. If he can’t take advantage of you he won’t engage. Yankees will continue their drought regardless until they rebuild that 29th ranked farm and MLB club full of aging yesterday stars
Great post guru up to the 2nd word and than everyone is that much dumber for it…
Good stuff Tim
That deal works only for the Cards.
Not a chance the Yanks do this. The trade is essentially Arenado for Dominguez. And there isn’t a single person in NYY FO that is endorsing that one.
No need. If you separate out the two principals, you suggest:
1. Lars Nootbar for DJLM.
Nootbar is a .240 hitter with 12 HRs.
He’s also an OFer.
So, we don’t need him.
At least, not enough to flip you DJ for him. DJ plays (well) 3 IF positions.
Once again, putting the cash to the side (which the cheap-o Cards won’t do), I’m not trading The Martian (who has the tools to be Soto-lite) for a hollowed out, superannuated version of Arenado.
I did say “Soto-lite”.
Which is alright.
The Dodgers really have no use for Robert,
or anyone else, for that matter. The outfield appears set and the team has its DH. It seems like a great deal of thought went into the 26 man roster and any additions would just confuse the plan.
Foxdave1
That makes no sense. The Cardinals already have a surplus at 2B, with more coming in JJ Wetherholt. Throw something else against the wall.
Only here can a 2X Batting Title be called a “nobody”. LOL!!!
Not my $, This Bregman deal will be further underwater than the Bellinger deal by next off-season however unless injured I believe Bregman will opt-out. I don’t believe this is where Bregman wanted to play,
He essentially wanted to be paid more than Chapman in AVV and years. If these contracts are truly paying for the player from 2025 onward than I’m a bigger believer in Chapman’s profile than Bregman’s.
Like Bellinger I think the juiced ball era helped Bregman’s profile. What the sign stealing did for him is unmeasurable however what’s undeniable is five seasons later is that 2018-19 are huge outlier years for him. Like I said, not my $
There seems to be a limit to as how many players with QO the open market can absorb. Bregman will hope next off-season will go like Snell’s, signing early at his preferred landing spot.. I wonder who the other team with 5yrs on the table was him
sfjackcoke
This Bregman deal will be further underwater than the Bellinger deal by next off-season however unless injured I believe Bregman will opt-out.
==========================
It’s virtually impossible for both these statements to be true.
If Bregman under-performs so much that his contract is worse than Bellinger’s, then he won’t opt out.
If he does opt-out, it will be because he out-performs his current contract, making
The only way that he both under-performs AND opts out is if gets injured or under-performs in the first half, and then has a great 2nd half.
That doesn’t make sense lol
Insane!
America is INSANE!
$120 Million Dollars United States currency for 3 years (486 games max) of playing baseball.
Thank our Lord, God, someone has invented the calculator.
$246,913.58024691 per game.