Diamondbacks left-hander Jordan Montgomery has been a logical trade candidate for a while but remains on the club with Opening Day just around the corner. It was reported last week that talks were still ongoing, perhaps make a late spring deal seem possible. However, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports today that the Snakes have asked at least one team to take on $13MM of the lefty’s salary this year.
Perhaps that is just an aggressive bargaining position, but if that’s what the Diamondbacks are looking to unload, they are unlikely to line something up. The starting pitching market was quite aggressive early in the winter but has cooled off in recent weeks. Since the middle of February, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana and Kyle Gibson have all signed one-year deals with guarantees between $4.25 and $5.25MM.
Montgomery theoretically has a higher ceiling than anyone in that group. From 2021 to 2023, he made 94 starts and logged 524 1/3 innings. He had a 3.48 earned run average, 22.5% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 44.5% ground ball rate. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 10.3 wins above replacement for that span. He was a key part of the 2023 Rangers team that won the World Series.
Quintana had some stretches like that earlier in his career but has been more of a back-end guy in recent years. Heaney has shown some occasional flashes but never been at that level for long. Gibson has been a back-end type for most of his career.
But the reason Montgomery is available is because his 2024 season was so awful. He lingered unsigned until very late and never really got into a good groove. His results were poor enough that he eventually got bumped to the bullpen. He finished the year with a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings. Owner Ken Kendrick publicly slammed the signing, pointing the finger at himself since he encouraged the front office to pursue Montgomery.
The one-year, $25MM agreement came with a vesting player option for 2025. If the southpaw made just ten starts last year, he would unlock a $20MM player option and could bump the value to $22.5MM at 18 starts, which he did. After his rough season, he made the obvious choice to trigger the player option.
There are several clubs around the league with pitching needs after some recent injuries but it would be a shock to see any club take on $13MM of the deal. Most teams are low on remaining payroll space at this point and that $13MM figure would be more than double the Heaney/Gibson/Quintana guarantees.
As mentioned, that could have just been an opening bid and maybe the Diamondbacks are willing to budge, but it also seems possible Montgomery will start the season in long relief. They have a rotation of Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez and Brandon Pfaadt. An injury could open up an opportunity for Montgomery but Ryne Nelson will also be in the mix after he posted a 3.23 ERA in the second half of last year. That will make it hard for Montgomery to get back into the rotation and in a good swing of things, which will subsequently make it difficult for him to build value as a trade candidate this summer or as a free agent this coming winter.
Photo courtesy of Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images
If the Diamondbacks wants another club to take on alot of money. They will have to add a prospect or two to the trade
NYY should be all over that.
Yankees are done adding significant payroll
No
For only 13 mil? their loss. Would be a good rental if he pans out for the season.
If the Yankees take on Montgomery at $13M, it will add about $14M to their luxury tax bill. So, it will cost the Yankees about $27M to add Montgomery. Is he worth that?
When you’re right you’re right. If they were too cheap to do it at all in the offseason when they needed help and only picked up discount nonsense why do it now when they really desperately need the help.
If a team wants to take on less of the contract, they will have to offer a better prospect or two to the trade. This is sunk cost for the Diamond backs. They don’t have to move him. But I’m sure many other teams have starting pitching to trade. Not.
Marlins & Padres one line one & two. (Sandy A and Cease)
He has extreme negative trade value so the dbacks are unlikely to get anything more than a single D grade, non top 30 prospect for him even if they eat $15+ mil. Maybe they could get a guy in the 20 range if they ate the whole contract…not at that point the dbacks should keep him. IMO he is completely untradeable currently and will require solid performance early this season to be movable.
The smart move is to see if he pitches well then trade mid season or keep him. No reason to trade him at his lowest value. His value can’t go lower so worst case you eat his salary and he is a long reliever.
ERod typically gets hurt..
Maybe even 3 or 4 prospects. Right?
How about they make a trade with Philly , Walker for Montgomery. Contract for Contract
Cubs should trade Matt Shaw and 13 million for Montgomery. Would make almost as much sense as the Tucker trade.
That is nonsense. The Tucker trade was perfect for Cubs.
If by perfect u mean for this season sure. But in 3 years when cam Smith is a fixture in the Houston lineup while Tucker is counting his 600 million in another uniform maybe not so perfect
You mean in 3 yrs when he still doesn’t have half the WAR Tucker puts up this yr, followed by the 3 he probably costs about the same as this yr for Tucker, while he gets that other half?
Good luck with that Diamond Backs
This is all about setting a benchmark for a midseason move. The Diamondbacks are banking on the inevitability of pitching injuries across the league (a statistical near-certainty by July) and the thin free-agent pool post-February. If no one bites at $13MM now, they keep Montgomery in long relief, where his innings are low-stakes and his arm stays fresh.
York. Fly in the ointment is that the inevitability of pitching injuries across the league includes the possibility the Dbacks will have injury issues crop up again this year with their pitching staff. If so, it will be nice to have Nelson and Montgomery head up the list of possible replacements. Name another team that has that kind of quality depth.
They’re likely hurting Montgomery’s value and their return by taking this approach. It’s slightly different than what happened with Crochet last season, but you’d essentially be trading a guy that hasn’t been stretched out to start to a team in need of a starter; quite a large gamble for the buyer if you’re asking them to eat salary *and* offer a decent prospect.
Appalachia
I don’t think “hurting Montgomery’s value” is relevant. For most people on these comment threads his value is already rock bottom, so any further dip in value would be minuscule.
More importantly, we commenters aren’t going to trade for Montgomery, actual team GM’s do that. And actual GM’s trade for players who are rock bottom in value all the time…If the need is great enough and the perception that a bounce back is likely enough in the GM’s evaluation.
As for me, as I stated on this thread already, I don’t want the Dbacks to trade Montgomery at all, so I could care less how high or low his trade value is.
If you’re not trading him, then yeah, it definitely changes the entire conversation. That’s completely fair. It may well be the smart move too since injuries frequently happen to pitchers.
I still think, if they’re intent on trading him, this isn’t the best approach, however. Most GMs, sans a few, are smart general managers, looking for the best deal. You’re giving them leverage in negotiations.
Appalachia
Agree.
Actually, the Dbacks have the same issue you described if they keep Montgomery. They have announced that both Montgomery and Nelson will be in the bullpen on the opening day roster, which means the Dbacks need to attempt to keep them stretched out in case of an injury to one of the starters. That will be a challenge, especially to keep 2 pitchers stretched out.
Wow! The Dbacks look like they have the potential to have a really good pitching staff. I had no idea it was that competitive.
Previously I’d believed the Snakes should hold Jordy and rebuild some of his value, but now I’m not so sure.
I’d still be hesitant to pay down his deal to only $13M, only to get a bag of chips and a medium soft drink in return.
I wouldn’t be surprised if teams are asking them about Nelson. I didn’t know he was that good last year.
Why would the DBacks trade Nelson? Gallen, Kelly, and Montgomery are all FAs after this season
And people following AZ knew Nelson was good during the second half of the season; we all know he isn’t getting traded without a large return coming back.
Highheat Oops posted the same thing just now. Sorry
Montgomery was terrible last year but I’ve never seen a team sour so fast and aggressively on a player after one bad year
There’s more of the story and probably something Monty upon getting demoted said to Kendrick. And then he fired Boras who Kendrick remains on good terms with which was apparent during the Burnes signing process.
I watched Monty a ton as a Yankee fan and I have always viewed the league’s interest in him as fairly puzzling. He’s a fine pitcher, and every once in a while he’s better than fine. But the deals he’s signed post-NYY have all overpaid him. He’s an ok number 4 guy, that’s about it.
Agreed. I wasn’t mad when we traded him.
Monty has only signed one free agent deal which is his current one. After his 2023 season, I think it was justified for him to ask for a six-year contract. However, no team wanted to meet his desired AAV. It remains unknown whether Monty can still out-earn in the future whatever long-term deal he may have left on the table in 2024. Not looking good now not having a rotation spot.
Ken Kendrick will even include a hand-typed letter of recommendation for Jordan on company letterhead.
Diamondbacks eat his contract. In return, they get a few solid minor leaguers. Rangers im talking to you
He’d fit great on the Angels!
This is an interesting staring contest for the Diamondbacks and the rest of the league; if the D’backs want another team to take on $13 million of Montgomery’s salary they’ll have to include a prospect kicker. Conversely, if a team wants to take on less than the $13 million the D’backs are asking for then they would have to include a better prospect in return. Let’s see if anyone blinks before opening day
Montgomery has four months to build up his value before the trade deadline at which point he would be owed $7.5 million. He had a slow start to ST due to an index finger issue, but should get plenty of long relief work thru April as the Dbacks SP continue to build their stamina. After April, I suspect injuries and/or under performance in the Dbacks rotation will provide Montgomery ample opportunity to get consistent starts before the end of July. Several factors will determine if Montgomery is dealt or held at the deadline – his and rotation mates performance, his and rotation mates health, Dbacks pennant chase, etc.
If Montgomery is getting consistent starts before the deadline, I doubt the D-backs will be looking to trade him. It would mean someone, or two, got injured or was ineffective.
Phillies acquire:
Jake McCarthy CF
Jordan Montgomery SP (1/25)
D’Backs acquire:
Taijuan Walker SP (2/38)
Johan Rojas CF
Kody Clemens INF
Mick Abel SP (#7)
D’Backs save about $10mil this year and eliminate any awkward animosity, while taking a $12mil gamble on Walker to bounce back. If he does, they could suddenly have a trade chip in Walker this offseason. They also get a fast CF and the LH 1B/2B they need. Phillies get their CF’er, a PA guy who they long have coveted. Marsh becomes the 4th OF’er, post season battle tested Monty becomes the 5th starter. If Montgomery & Luzardo are pitching well, the Phillies could use Ranger in the pen at the end of April through the month of May, or until a need in the rotation arises. This will keep his innings down, considering Ranger was arguably the best pitcher in baseball through his first 100 innings in 2024. We need to save some of them bullets for October – plus Ranger is the only one of the 6 with any bullpen experience.
Diamondbacks might as well keep Montgomery if they’re expected to take Walker back. They don’t want Walker and I don’t think they want to give up McCarthy from what I read awhile back. They’d rather give up Alek Thomas, I think. I’m a Tigers fan though so perhaps a DBacks fan is more recently in the know. I doubt Arizona would do that though. They already don’t have room for Nelson. Who’s ready to be in the rotation.
McCarthy is going nowhere. He’s played himself into a starter, and provides value to the team. Now, if anyone wants Alek Thomas……..
Why would the Dbacks make this trade? Phillies keep Walker and it’s a deal…. Every Philly trade includes Walker because he is washed up and on the open market he would be lucky to find a major league deal at anything over 3M!
Just a suggestion, bad contract swap with both teams filling a need. Both players are in awkward situations with their current clubs. D’Backs need an INF’er, Phillies need an OF’er. AZ would actually be saving money this year and eliminating their biggest personnel issue.
They needed a UTIL player, not necessarily just an IF; they certainly don’t need a UTIL bad enough to give up multiple years of a 3+ WAR player to swap a bad contract (and to jump through 40-man hoops).
And the DBacks aren’t up against the Luxury Tax threshold. They don’t need to “save money” by swapping a 2 year bad contract for the last bad year of Montgomery. AZ is in a better position without making the deal that you suggested.
The DBacks’ biggest (and currently the only apparent) personnel issue is the lack of an established Closer, and your proposal did nothing for that
Not saying that AZ has all of the leverage in a bad contract deal (because that’s ridiculous), but Hazen has no need to make a move. Our roster is in a good spot and still has room to make some upgrades at the midway point of the season.
Just don’t see Montgomery in a Phillies uniform. He’d be in the same situation as he is in AZ. Then again, three lefties in the rotation would be great fun every time Juan Soto is in the other dugout. It is more likely Walker will sit in the dark in the back of the Phillies bullpen until his contract runs out. On the other hand, they really should talk the Angels into taking him. It’s a short commute back to Yucaipa.
Exactly. And to get to the WS pitching staff has to go through guys like Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman and the Japanese guy I forget his name. Montgomery is familiar with the NE from his Yankees days, the atmosphere doesn’t faze him. George Springer makes $50 mil over the next two years and the Blue Jays do need a SP. Just saying. There’s a deal out there for Monty or Walker if these GM’a were doing their due diligence.
I would make that trade but Arizona wouldn’t
Phils kick in $5mil next year and plus Rincones Jr. That would be hard to turn down. Think that best genuine fits for Phillies (of players that could be available) are Jake Meyers. Lane Thomas, Jo Addel, Dylan Moore and Daulton Varsho.
Are you high?
I wouldn’t be surprised if they get more calls about Nelson. He’s cheap and looks like he quietly broke out last year.
There are far worse bad contracts for a team to be saddled with than one with 1 year remaining for a starter who few would be surprised if he managed to get back to his pre-2024 form
Jordan has had an awful spring. 2 appearances and a 13.5 era. Not getting into enough games to
Prove any value or trade value.
Yankees would have signed him instead of stroman but he didn’t want to come back, in hindsight he probably would have gotten 4 or 5 years from the Yankees
First of all let’s temper expectations a bit. He’s been a very solid and reliable pitcher for 90% of his career. He had two months of stud level stuff in Texas. So while I see him as a really good bounce back candidate I expect him to bounce back to the pre Texas run production. As far as trading him goes you really have two options. You can give him a spot in the rotation and give him a chance to rebuild value(or perhaps keep him but that bridge is pretty burnt) or you sell him to the highest bidder whatever that is. He’s not rebuilding value based on mop up duty innings. 13 million is just crazy for a guy that you plan on putting in the long relief role. Give him starts or just move on.
No matter how it turns out – the Boras corp is smiling that he reached 18 starts.
In any event he could do well in relief enough to maybe show he regained his prior numbers or implode either way AZ is on the hook for 22.5m
Teams are just doing their due diligence checking in on Montgomery and seeing if the Dbacks want to sell low. So far, the answer is no. Montgomery has four months to reestablish his value before the trade deadline at which point he is owed $7.5 million and the Dbacks will decide to trade or hold depending on their SP depth and playoff chances at that time.
Its not No. Its they will sell low, but not that low.
First, let’s put the Nelson chatter to bed. Gallen, Kelly and Montgomery are all in the final year of their contracts. That means the Dbacks will have only the other 4, Burnes, Rodriguez, Pfaadt and Nelson, as returning starters in 2026. There is no way the Dbacks will trade any of those 4, especially Nelson, right now.
Hello orioles.
The Dbacks are walking the tightrope with Montgomery still on the roster. On the one hand, they would like to give him opportunities to rebuild his trade value, because they have 7 starters and he is the most logical/only expiring contract starter they would like to trade.
On the other hand, they can’t afford to give Montgomery any leash at all, because it might damage their hopes for a postseason berth, like it did in 2024. Not saying Montgomery was the “only” reason the Dbacks failed in 2024. Only saying they can’t risk doing the same thing with Montgomery this year.
That would mean if any starter stumbles, they can’t risk giving them their next start. If they can’t give JM any leash, they can’t risk giving any pitcher leash.
I think its a reasonable ask to pay 13M for a single year. Yes last year was terrible but plenty of guys are not seen as just what they did last year. Yankees were not looking to unload Rodon after a terrible year. Guys with a track record you can say maybe that is not who they are. Most of his career I feel like he could fit as 3 but guess that all depends on whose 3. His career ERA is 4.03 so prior to last year probably a 3.90ish # and that appeals. I can say I would rather have the Os chase him than Gibson because he has the upside, a potential bounce back. Guys who were still on the market have a reasonably low ceiling. Can see him as similar to Eflin and for now he is the Os 1.
Sure expectations got high but he killed it in Texas and played a major role in them winning a championship. Who doesn’t want a guy like that? You just cant be sure if he will duplicate it. Now we have seen, he didn’t. But it may be just like Snell tough to ramp up coming in late. Feel like it could be worth it for teams to take a shot and if they miss so what. One single year for 13M. Think that is potentially great value and if not, well you dont owe him a dime next year. Put it in the rear view and move on. Also feel a change of scenery would help.
Who says no first? Montgomery, Alec Thomas, and $10 million to Chicago for Luis Robert.
In the off chance he is traded and has a bounce back year, is it too late to slap a QO offer on him?
Players traded mid season cannot be given a QO.
Yeah, I know that’s why Monty avoided a QO last time, but when is the cutoff date? Like is it any time after opening day, and if so, would that be the Dodgers game last week?
Russell
The exact wording of qualifying offer in the rule book states that any player can receive a qualifying offer as long as these two conditions are met:
1. That player has never received a qualifying offer previously in his career.
2. That player spent the entire season on that team’s roster (in-season acquisitions are ineligible).
So you interpret for yourself whether “in season” has already started for the Dodgers and Cubs, but not for the rest of the league, or whether “in season” started for all teams once any two teams played the first regular season game.
Last year, the Dbacks needed 11 starters because of injuries (plus 3 relievers who started “bullpen games). This year, with injuries, they may only need their top 7.
Last year, the Dbacks tried guys like Tommy Henry, Blake Walston and Cristian Mena who weren’t ready for the majors. This year, they won’t need to push pitchers who aren’t ready into starting roles. That’s a big luxury, and the main reason I’ve come around to wanting Montgomery on the team for the whole year. I don’t want him traded period. And I definitely don’t want him traded when his value is so low they will pay another team to pitch him.