Latest On Nationals’ Rotation

The Nationals reinstated right-hander Michael Soroka from the 15-day injured list earlier today and he started their afternoon contest against the Guardians. Right-hander Eduardo Salazar was optioned as the corresponding move. TalkNats reported yesterday that Soroka would be reinstated to retake his spot in the rotation and relayed that manager Dave Martinez said righty Brad Lord would be moved to the bullpen.

Lord started the season in the bullpen but stepped up to take a rotation spot when Soroka hit the IL due to a right biceps strain. Lord took the ball six times and gave the Nats some fairly competent work, posting a 4.44 earned run average in 26 1/3 innings with an 18.9% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. In spite of those decent numbers, moving him to the bullpen makes sense, as the other rotation candidates have more experience than he does. Most of them are having pretty good seasons as well, to varying degrees.

MacKenzie Gore is having a huge season so far, with a 3.33 ERA in 46 innings, and that’s underselling it. His 36.4% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate are both strong numbers. If it weren’t for a .343 batting average on balls in play, he would have allowed even fewer runs, which is why his FIP is 2.74 and his SIERA is 2.37. It’s a somewhat similar situation with Trevor Williams. His 18.8% strikeout rate is only about half of Gore’s but his 6.9% walk rate is good and he has allowed a .360 BABIP. Though his 5.86 ERA isn’t pretty, his 4.16 FIP and 4.25 SIERA suggest he deserves better.

Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker are a bit to the other side. Irvin has a 3.94 ERA despite a tepid 16.8% strikeout rate, with a tiny .230 BABIP and an 80.6% strand rate helping him out. His 5.08 FIP and 4.55 SIERA suggest there’s a bit of luck in that ERA. Parker has a 3.48 ERA even though his 12% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate are both rough numbers, though his 45.7% ground ball rate is good. His .223 BABIP makes ERA estimators less optimistic, particularly his 5.63 SIERA.

As for Soroka, today was just his second start of the season, as he landed on the IL after his first. Today’s outing started well but finished poorly. He had eight strikeouts through five scoreless innings but then the sixth innings went single, single, hit-by-pitch, bases-clearing double by Carlos Santana. Soroka was then pulled but the bullpen allowed Santana to score, adding that to Soroka’s ledger. He therefore finished with four earned runs allowed in five-plus innings pitched.

Soroka debuted way back in 2018 and then finished second to Pete Alonso in 2019 National League Rookie of the Year voting. However, it’s not currently clear if he can stick in the rotation. After that excellent 2019 season, he spent much of the next few years injured, mostly due to due tearing his right Achilles twice. He had some mixed results with the White Sox last year, posting a 6.39 ERA though nine starts and getting moved to the bullpen. Over his final 24 1/3 innings, pitching in a multi-inning role, he posted a 1.48 ERA with a massive 42.7% strikeout rate.

The Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a chance to retake a rotation job. Since he’s mostly been injured this year, it’s still to be determined whether that will work out or not. The Nats gave him $9MM this year, so they’re motivated to let him try. The benefits of him succeeding as a starter are simply higher than if he’s a good reliever, whether that’s helping their club in 2025 or getting traded at the deadline.

Lord will be in relief for now but another rotation shot in the future is plausible. Pitcher injuries are fairly inevitable. Soroka is also on a one-year deal and figures to be a trade candidate in the coming months. Williams is on a two-year deal and could be moved this summer as well if his results even out. Gore is surely less likely to be moved but he only has two remaining seasons of club control after this one, so rumors may pop up. On the other hand, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray could be healthy and back in the mix later in this year as well while Shinnosuke Ogasawara is currently on the 40-man and pitching in Triple-A.

Photo courtesy of Kevin Sousa, Imagn Images